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What Does The Future Hold For Jake Gardiner?

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Before July 1st, few people outside of the Toronto Maple Leafs front office were too concerned about the contract status of defenseman Jake Gardiner, who enters the final year of his current deal in 2018-19. Then Drew Doughty, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ryan McDonagh, and Ryan Ellis all preemptively signed long, expensive extensions. Just like that, the situation for Gardiner changed completely.

Looking ahead to next summer, there is now an argument to be made that Gardiner is the second-best defenseman on the unrestricted free agent market as it currently stands. That was far from true earlier this summer. He has gone from an afterthought to an Erik Karlsson consolation prize. While the free agent class features many prominent veteran defenders – Jay Bouwmeester, Anton Stralman, Marc Methot, and Alexander Edler – it lacks many long-term pieces behind Karlsson and Gardiner. The Winnipeg Jets’ Tyler Myers and the Vegas Golden Knights’ Nate Schmidt would perhaps offer Gardiner some competition, if either unexpectedly reaches the market, but there is a strong case to be made that Gardiner would be the superior target.

The real question is whether or not Gardiner actually makes it to free agency. While nothing has changed about Gardiner’s value or ability since July 1st, his relative cost has shifted dramatically. With a potentially loaded free agent market for defensemen, Gardiner would have been taking a risk by turning down a fair extension from the Leafs to pursue other offers that may not have come once the smoke cleared from the major signings. Now that he almost certainly will be considered one of the top available names, Toronto may have to pay a premium to keep him from testing the waters, if they can. By the time Gardiner finishes next season, his career games played and offensive production will likely be superior to those currently of a player like McDonagh, who just signed a seven-year extension worth $6.75MM AAV. Granted, Gardiner is not the all-around player that McDonagh is, but given his continuously improving play and the boost of being a top available younger player, it is a fair frame of reference. For example, look at the four-year, $18.2MM contract that Calvin de Haan – considered by many to be the best defenseman in this current free agent class – signed with the Carolina Hurricanes this summer despite missing the majority of last season due to injury. The market sets the price and scarcity drives up price.

So will Toronto ante up to keep Gardiner? The Maple Leafs have to be careful with their long-term salary cap management. The team still owes William Nylander a contract this summer, as well as extensions for Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner by next off-season. Those are the three names that everyone is focused on when it comes to Toronto. Yet, in addition to Gardiner, other impending free agents that the Leafs would like to keep include forwards Kasperi Kapanen, Andreas Johnsson, and Josh Leivo, defensemen Travis Dermott, Andreas Borgman, and Connor Carrick, goaltender Garret Sparks, and even incoming imports Par Lindholm and Igor Ozhiganov who could win spots on the team this season. This is the final year that Toronto can take advantage of this massive group of bargain players, all of whom are paid $1.3MM or less and due raises. Not to mention, signing Gardiner and the other blue liners and losing veteran Ron Hainsey will still keep a massive hole open on the right side of the defense that the team will need to continue to search to fill.

The numbers simply don’t seem to add up, at least not very neatly. It would seem difficult for the Maple Leafs to pay Gardiner his market value, extend all of their other key impending free agents, fill the gap on the right side of the top pair next to Morgan Rielly, and still somehow end up under the salary cap next season. The story line to watch this season, as the John Tavares era begins, is whether the Jake Gardiner era is ending. Another career year for the capable defenseman could leave the Leafs without much choice but to let him walk next off-season and continue to work with a pieced together blue line. Do they trade him at the deadline? Do they trade a young core forward to replace him? Or instead do they somehow move salary to fit Gardiner in at any cost? Find out in 2018-19.

 

Snapshots: Gionta, Soshnikov, Leivo

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Brian Gionta may have been invisible at the Olympics, but he still managed to catch the eye of one NHL team. The USA captain failed to record a point, took only 16 shots, and cleanly lost several face-offs in an effort that seemingly had quieted the talk of his NHL comeback. However, WGR 550 in Buffalo is reporting that Gionta is finalizing a deal to join a team for the remainder of the season. Gionta must sign by the trade deadline Monday to be eligible for postseason play, but WGR’s Paul Hamilton spoke with agent Steve Bartlett, who says to expect a deal with a “playoff-bound team” sometime this weekend. Despite a lackluster performance in Pyeongchang, Gionta is less than a year removed from an 82-game, 35-point campaign with the Buffalo Sabres in 2016-17 and was eager to re-sign with Buffalo this off-season, only to be rejected by the new administration. Having worked out during the year, including skating with the AHL’s Rochester Americans, Gionta is ready to go. The only question is whether he plays like he did with the Sabres last year or with Team USA last week.

  • The St. Louis Blues announced that they have activated Nikita Soshnikov off of injured reserve and he could soon make his debut for the team. Soshnikov was acquired from the Toronto Maple Leafs last week for a fourth-round pick, but was on IR when traded (because of course he was “injured”, the Leafs weren’t just circumventing roster limits) and remained there after the move. With the Blues on a three-game losing streak and playing poorly for weeks now, maybe Soshnikov can be the injection into the St. Louis lineup that gets the team back on track. The 24-year-old has been a near point-per-game player in the AHL this season, but without the same success at the NHL level.
  • With Soshnikov and Eric Fehr now out of town, the Leafs’ lineup has opened up enough to finally give Josh Leivo some play time. TSN’s Mark Masters reports that Leivo is in the lineup for tonight’s game, his first game action in months. The 24-year-old is no longer waivers-exempt, so Toronto has refrained from trying to move him to the AHL at any point this season. As a result, Leivo has skated in only 12 NHL games this season, the last of which came back in December. When Leivo takes the ice tonight against the Boston Bruins, it will be his first game action of 2018. Despite being cold and having little production to show for his limited ice time this season, its no coincidence that Leivo is finally getting into a game just prior to the trade deadline. While it’s been disputed whether or not he has asked for a trade out of Toronto, Leivo could easily just be in the lineup tonight for the purposes of being showcased to other teams.

Snapshots: Leivo, Danault, Smith

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Not so long ago it was reported that Josh Leivo had requested a trade away from the Toronto Maple Leafs. The 24-year old forward has barely played over the last few seasons, spending more time in the press box than the bench. It was natural for him to want a fresh start somewhere, and a chance to prove he is a full-time NHL player.

This morning, speaking with reporters including Jonas Siegal of The Athletic, Maple Leafs’ GM Lou Lamoriello expressed that he never did receive a trade request from Leivo despite the widespread reports. When asked about the trade request earlier this month, Leivo’s agent wouldn’t confirm it but did say that the forward “simply needs to play regularly.”

  • Phillip Danault is back travelling with the Montreal Canadiens, and says the only symptom he suffered after taking a Zdeno Chara shot to the head was vertigo. Danault hasn’t played in nearly a month, but was actually having a nice season for the Canadiens with 23 points in 43 games. He could rejoin the lineup on Wednesday evening.
  • Eric Francis of Sportsnet reports that Calgary Flames goaltender Mike Smith’s injury may not be as bad as it looked, though no clarification past that is given. Smith had to be helped off the ice by the training staff and two teammates, just at the end of their game against the New York Islanders. Smith has been a huge part of the Flames season so far, and a long-term injury could be devastating to their playoff hopes.

Morning Notes: Maple Leafs, Rangers, Prospects

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The Toronto Maple Leafs are comfortably in a playoff spot in the Atlantic Division, sitting fifteen points up on the Florida Panthers. As they try to catch Boston or Tampa Bay down the stretch for home ice advantage, head coach Mike Babcock clearly wants some help at the trade deadline. As Chris Johnston of Sportsnet reports, Babcock has let “the people who need to know, know” what he’d like to see added.

In his latest 31 Thoughts column for Sportsnet, Elliotte Friedman mentions three names on the Maple Leafs that could easily be removed in the next few weeks instead. Josh Leivo, who has asked for a trade after being passed over again for playing time, Nikita Soshnikov, who will force the Maple Leafs into a roster move once he completes his conditioning stint, and Matt Martin. Martin has two more years on his contract at $2.5MM per season, but hasn’t been able to crack the lineup recently and could be moved to create some roster flexibility.

  • As the New York Rangers prepare to sell off some assets at the trade deadline, they got some good news on the injury front today. While Marc Staal was absent from practice due to a neck injury, Jimmy Vesey (concussion), Pavel Buchnevich (concussion) and Chris Kreider (blood clot) all skated. Kevin Shattenkirk, who underwent knee surgery a few weeks ago, is now off crutches. Amazingly, the Rangers are still just three points out of a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, and with some returning players and new blood there is no telling what could happen in the latter part of the season.
  • Craig Button and TSN have released their ranking of the top-50 prospects that have already been drafted, with Elias Pettersson coming in at the very top. The Vancouver Canucks first-round pick has been arguably the best player in the SHL this season with 45 points through 35 games and looks poised to make an impact in North America as soon as next season. Beyond that is Eeli Tolvanen at #2, despite falling nearly out of the first round entirely last June. Tolvanen turned a disappointing decision at Boston College into an opportunity, and has broken nearly every record for an 18-year old player in the KHL. The entire list is interesting, and is quite different than Corey Pronman’s ranking at The Athletic (subscription required) which had Casey Mittelstadt in the top spot.

Minor Transactions: 02/05/18

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After a light Sunday schedule because of the Super Bowl, the NHL has just four games on tap for Monday night. Despite the lack of on-ice action, there will be plenty of minor moves around the league. As always, we’ll keep track of all of them right here.

Josh Leivo Asks To Be Traded

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Maple Leafs winger Josh Leivo is in his second straight season of seeing limited playing time and with it looking less and less likely that this will change in the weeks to come with Kasperi Kapanen coming up from the minors and playing well, he has requested a trade if he isn’t going to get more ice time, Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos reports (video link).

Josh LeivoLeivo is waiver eligible which is what has left him in limbo, similar to what had been happening last season with now-Penguins blueliner Frank Corrado.  Toronto doesn’t want to risk losing him for nothing as he would almost assuredly be picked up if they were to place him on the wire.

Leivo’s agent Ian Pulver spoke to Jonas Siegal of The Athletic (subscription required), indicating that there is no bad blood between the two sides.

Josh is a player who would stand in front of a train for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Josh was drafted by the Leafs and he wants to be a long-time Leaf. He would love to be in the lineup Monday night, and every night thereafter. Having said that, he hasn’t been in the lineup for a long time, and hasn’t played much in the past two seasons.  He has reached a point in his career where he simply needs to play regularly.

While it looked like Leivo would start to get more playing time following a one-year, $925K extension he signed back in November to avoid potentially hitting Group VI unrestricted free agency, that hasn’t been the case.  The 24-year-old has played in just 12 games this season, notching a goal and two assists while averaging just 10:54 per night in playing time.

Overall, Leivo has had a bit of success when he has had the opportunity to play.  Although he has played in just 53 career NHL games over parts of five seasons, he has managed a respectable 10 goals and 11 assists in limited playing time (just 10:57 per game on average).  That should attract some interest around the league, especially since his cap hit of $613K falls below the league minimum salary.

While Toronto is certainly looking to add before the trade deadline, this case may be one where it makes sense for them to take a future asset in return.  The Leafs are currently at the maximum of 50 contracts so picking up a draft pick or unsigned prospect here would free up an opening for them to add a veteran before the end of the month.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

No Urgency In Maple Leafs’ Defenseman Search

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When Nikita Zaitsev was surprisingly placed on injured reserve this weekend, many believed it could push the Toronto Maple Leafs to make a move ahead of the upcoming holiday roster freeze. Zaitsev, who logs the most ice time of any Maple Leafs player, is expected to be out for at least two weeks with a lower-body injury, hurting what was already seen as a Toronto weak point.

The Maple Leafs have been tenuously linked to several defenders this season like Ian Cole in Pittsburgh and Erik Gudbranson in Vancouver, but haven’t yet made a move to strengthen the back end. Instead, they recalled Martin Marincin from the minor leagues and that could be all they do for some time. Darren Dreger was on TSN radio this morning and spoke about the Maple Leafs’ search, pointing out that he doesn’t believe there is an increased level of urgency.

I don’t get the sense that [Maple Leafs GM] Lou Lamoriello is calling 28 general managers like his partner [Senators GM] Pierre Dorion in Ottawa trying to find something. But the word is out there that if something surfaces on the market, Toronto would have considerable interest.

Dreger goes on to explain that Toronto does have some interesting assets in the form of players like Josh Leivo and Kasperi Kapanen, but reiterates that there is no sense of urgency coming out of the Toronto front office.

All of this comes as the team is mired in a three-game losing streak, thanks in large part to the absence of Auston Matthews. Matthews is out with an upper-body injury, and isn’t expected to play tomorrow against the Carolina Hurricanes in the 100-year anniversary of the first NHL game in Toronto. If he isn’t a late addition, the Maple Leafs will have to look to other places to get them out of their scoring slump.

With the roster freeze kicking in tomorrow night, it’s likely that we’ll have to wait and see what the Maple Leafs have planned for new year on their blueline. For now, Marincin and Connor Carrick will be the beneficiaries of Zaitsev’s injury.

Toronto Maple Leafs Sign Josh Leivo To One-Year Extension

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The Toronto Maple Leafs have signed forward Josh Leivo to a one-year extension worth $925K. Leivo was a candidate for Group VI free agency this summer if he didn’t play in another 34 games with the club this year. We examined his candidacy in a piece earlier this season, and it clearly looked like the team wasn’t ready to give him a full-time role this year. That could chance next season though, as both James van Riemsdyk and Leo Komarov are unrestricted free agents.

Josh LeivoLeivo has an intriguing skill profile for the Maple Leafs, as a big-bodied forward that has a good shot and playmaking ability. While some have questioned his skating ability in the past, he provides good value on the powerplay and has historically never complained publicly about his disappointing situation with the Maple Leafs. Since making his debut in the 2013-14 season, Leivo has suited up for just 46 NHL games and no more than 13 in a single season. That’s in spite of the fact that he registered 10 points in that 13-game sample last year, and has performed well at the AHL level. The 86th-overall pick in 2011, Leivo is on the second year of a two-year minimum salary deal he signed in 2016. The $925K doesn’t seem like a lot, but will actually be a hefty raise for the 24-year old.

The question now becomes if this is in preparation for life without van Riemsdyk and/or Komarov, or just to protect an asset they believe is valuable as a 13th forward. There is always the chance that Toronto moves one of the aforementioned wingers to improve their defense corps, which would allow Leivo to jump into the lineup full time. The Maple Leafs need quite a bit of cap room to sign their big three of Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner in the near future, meaning players on inexpensive deals like this one will need to be key contributors.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

PHR Originals 10/29/17-11/05/17

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The NHL rumor mill is on fire after the failed Kyle Turris–Matt Duchene trade, but there were plenty of other stories developed by the PHR staff this week. Here’s a recap on some of the pieces from this week:

Sutter: The Next Generation

Zach took a look at Riley Sutter, the latest entrant in a legendary hockey family. The young Sutter is climbing up draft boards as he tries to emulate the career of many relatives. Ron, Rich, Duane, Darryl, Brian, Brent, Brandon, Brett, Brody, Lukas, Shaun and now Riley. Family competition must be intense.

Josh Leivo25-Year Old Freedom

Group VI free agency isn’t the ideal way for young players to hit the open market, but it does provide an opportunity to turn your career around. I took a look at a few players who have a chance to become free agents at the age of 25, and escape their current situation.

Motown Uncertainty

Nate examined if Jeff Blashill is really to blame in Detroit, or if the Red Wings’ problems are more deep-seeded. From the tone of the comments, fans are nearing their frustrating limit with the team after a sluggish start and no clear rebuild plan in place.

Free Agent Futility

After just a month of season, I took an early look at the big free agents from July 1. While the 2016 group had a disappointing start, this year’s class isn’t as clear cut. There hasn’t been a ton of team success from the big spenders, but individual efforts are about what was expected. At the end of the year, who will regret their spending spree most?

Polling The People

We ran a pair of polls this week, asking which coach is under the most pressure and which team was furthest from where they’ll eventually finish. PHR readers were pretty clear that Alain Vigneault should be watching his back in New York, while the Vegas Golden Knights were more mirage than miracle. Those Golden Knights are now 9-4, and likely scouting the local midget tournaments for goaltending help.

Chatty Cathy

I once again held my weekly live chat, and spoke about everything from Vadim Shipachyov to Deshaun Watson. Every Thursday evening we talk about anything you want—make sure to join us next week.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

The Unleashed: Group VI Free Agency

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Normally in the NHL, players aren’t allowed to reach unrestricted free agency before they turn 27. Even then, most players end up trading away some of their free agent years for pay raises and long-term contract stability. Sometimes though, you end up with a player like Steven Stamkos who in the summer of 2016 was set to become a free agent at the age of 26.

Stamkos debuted in the league at such a young age because of his outstanding talent, that he had already accrued the necessary seven seasons in the league. He actually could have become a free agent in the summer of 2015 had he not signed a contract including the 2015-16 season several years earlier. Almost every star does this, as you can see around the league. Connor McDavid is already locked up until he’s 29, signing away four years of free agency in his recent $100MM extension.

But, there is another way to hit free agency early and it’s at the opposite end of the spectrum. Players that are stuck in the minors and never really given a chance to play in the NHL can become free agents at age-25, as Jordan Weal did this summer. Weal, who dominated for several years in the AHL without ever getting a full-time look in the NHL became a Group VI free agent this summer. To do so, he had to meet three requirements (via CapFriendly):

  1. The player is 25 years or older (as of June 30th of the calendar year the contract is expiring).
  2. The player has completed 3 or more professional seasons – qualified by 11 or more professional games (for an 18/19 year old player), or 1 or more professional games (for a player aged 20 or older). This can include NHL, minor league, and European professional league seasons played while under an SPC.
  3. The player has played less than 80 NHL games, or 28 NHL games of 30 minutes or greater for a goaltender.

Every year there are several players who qualify as Group VI free agents, and 2018 will likely be no different. Here are a few notable candidates.

Mark McNeill – Dallas Stars – 2 GP

Dallas would have had to play McNeill all season long to break the 80-game threshold. The 18th-overall pick from 2011 has been dominant at times in the AHL, but was never given a chance in Chicago. Dealt last season in a move for Johnny Oduya, McNeill will hit free agency and could look for a brand new start somewhere else. Whether another opportunity will ever come in the NHL is a different story, as McNeill has fallen off the prospect map in recent years.

"<strongTyler Wotherspoon – Calgary Flames – 30 GP

Wotherspoon was once considered a top prospect that looked like a lock for a long NHL career, but without showing any real top-four potential the excitement has died in recent years. The 14 games he played with the Flames when he was just 21 would end up being the most he would see in any single season so far, and he’d need to jump into the lineup quite soon (and stick) to avoid being granted free agency this summer.

 

Josh Leivo – Toronto Maple Leafs – 43 GP

Leivo has once again been pulled from the Maple Leafs’ lineup prior to their matchup against the Los Angeles Kings, a feeling he must be getting used to by now. He’s never played in more than 13 games in a single season with the Maple Leafs, and would need to suit up for 47 more this season in order for the team to hold onto his rights. The third-round pick from 2011 has actually fared quite well in his sporadic games, recording 11 points in his last 15 contests.

"<strongStefan Noesen – New Jersey Devils – 53 GP

Noesen has been a solid player for the Devils since being selected off waivers from Anaheim last year, and has played 39 of his 53 games in that time. He isn’t a full-time player for them though, and he was scratched on Wednesday when Brian Boyle returned to the lineup. The question will be can he get into another 27 games this season to crack that 80-game mark, or does the first-round pick—that once was a key part of getting Bobby Ryan to Ottawa—hit the open market this summer.

There are many, many more candidates for Group VI free agency and we’ll be taking a look at some of the others throughout the season depending on how their season progresses. 

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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