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COVID Protocol Related Absences: 01/16/21

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Each day, the NHL will publicly release the list of players that are unavailable to their respective teams due to being in COVID-19 protocol.  Today’s list is as follows:

Carolina – Jordan Staal
Columbus – Mikko Koivu
Detroit – Christian Djoos
Minnesota – Alex Stalock
Nashville – Mikael Granlund
New Jersey – Eric Comrie
Philadelphia – Shayne Gostisbehere
Tampa Bay – Curtis McElhinney*
Vancouver – Jordie Benn; J.T. Miller
Winnipeg – Anton Forsberg; Tucker Poolman*

*denotes new addition

As a reminder, inclusion on this list does not mean that a player has tested positive for Coronavirus or even that they have been confirmed as a close contact to another positive person. Included in the NHL’s list of possible reasons for someone being on the list is are the following:

(1) an initial positive test which remains unconfirmed until confirmatory testing is completed pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (2) mandated isolation for symptomatic individuals pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (3) required quarantine as a high-risk close contact in accordance with the Positive Test Protocol; (4) isolation based on a confirmed positive test result and/or; (5) quarantine for travel or other reasons as outlined in the COVID-19 Protocol

As has been the case so far this season, the league declined to identify anyone from Dallas and will hold off on doing so until they are able to play in their first game, now scheduled for January 22. They had a significant outbreak early in camp as 17 of the 27 players that tested positive in training camp were from the Stars.

2020 King Clancy Trophy Nominees Announced

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The NHL has announced the 31 nominees for the King Clancy Memorial Trophy, annually presented to “the player who best exemplifies leadership qualities on and off the ice and has made a noteworthy humanitarian contribution in his community.” Last year’s winner was Jason Zucker of the Minnesota Wild.

Each team submits one nominee. This year’s are:

Anaheim: Cam Fowler

Arizona: Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Boston: Patrice Bergeron

Buffalo: Jack Eichel

Calgary: Travis Hamonic

Carolina: Jordan Staal

Chicago: Jonathan Toews

Colorado: Gabriel Landeskog

Columbus: Cam Atkinson

Dallas: Tyler Seguin

Detroit: Justin Abdelkader

Edmonton: Leon Draisaitl

Florida: Sergei Bobrovsky

Los Angeles: Trevor Lewis

Minnesota: Matt Dumba

Montreal: Carey Price

Nashville: Pekka Rinne

New Jersey: P.K. Subban

NY Islanders: Matt Martin

NY Rangers: Henrik Lundqvist

Ottawa: Brady Tkachuk

Philadelphia: Kevin Hayes

Pittsburgh: Sidney Crosby

San Jose: Evander Kane

St. Louis: Ryan O’Reilly

Tampa Bay: Alex Killorn

Toronto: Mitch Marner

Vancouver: Alexander Edler

Vegas: Marc-Andre Fleury

Washington: Garnet Hathaway

Winnipeg: Blake Wheeler

Snapshots: NHL Draft, Ovechkin, Crosby, Guentzel

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Yesterday, the NHL postponed the 2020 NHL Draft, which had been set to take place in Montreal on June 26-27. The league did not however indicate what the plan was to make up the event, which must occur in some form or fashion prior to the 2020-21 season. However, Pierre LeBrun writes for The Athletic that there are three possible solutions for the draft make-up. The least likely would be that the draft is simply postponed to a later date and takes place in Montreal as initially planned. LeBrun does not believe that a full draft, complete with teams, prospects, and fans alike in attendance, is a realistic option. Slightly more likely would be a scaled-down version, which LeBrun compares to the post-lockout draft in 2005, that still takes place in Montreal but with far less fanfare, but even this seems unlikely. The outcome most see occurring, falling in line with what junior leagues have decided for their own drafts, would be a virtual NHL Draft, wherein teams make their picks live from their individual war rooms. LeBrun mentions the possibility of a centralized location, in Montreal or elsewhere, with team reps and top prospects in attendance to react to the virtual selections.

If the draft does move to a virtual format, LeBrun reports that the league has promised Montreal that they will receive either the 2021 or 2022 NHL Draft. He adds that the NHL may even consider combining the NHL Entry Draft and NHL Expansion Draft into one week-long event in Montreal next summer. Given the rabid fan base of the city, it would be as good a location as any – barring Seattle itself maybe – to hold the Expansion Draft. If Montreal were to lose the draft this year only to gain two drafts next year, that would be quite the consolation prize.

  • Count arguably the two biggest names in hockey as supporters of calling the regular season and jumping right into the playoffs. On a conference call today among representatives of each of the Metropolitan Division teams, Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby and Washington’s Alex Ovechkin lobbied for the NHL to skip the remaining regular season games and resume play with the first round of the postseason, in whatever format they choose. Crosby opined that playing as many regular season games as possible would be best for the integrity of the season, but he “wouldn’t mind starting right at the playoffs.” Ovechkin was more direct, saying that he is “bored” with the league’s current pause and that his Capitals “don’t want to play those extra games” and would “rather start the playoffs right away.” Unsurprisingly, Carolina’s Jordan Staal, whose Hurricanes are safely in the postseason right now, agrees with Ovechkin and Crosby, while brother Marc Staal of the New York Rangers, who were hot before the league postponed its action, would rather resume the regular season in hopes of getting in. Curiously though, Columbus’ Nick Foligno, whose Blue Jackets would be in the standard playoff structure by total points but not by points percentage, the likely determinant of qualification, supported a jump right to the postseason, while the New York Islanders’ Anders Lee, whose team is in the opposite situation, preferred to finish the regular season. Opinions are sure to change based on the length of the league’s pause, the options for returning to action, and the potential format of postseason play, but for now there is major support behind surrendering the regular season in favor of an immediate postseason of some sort.
  • There are few NHL stakeholders who are benefiting from the current indefinite break in action. One of the only exceptions is Crosby’s teammate, Jake Guentzel. Guentzel suffered a shoulder injury in late December and was given a four-to-six-month recovery window following surgery. In a normal league year, that likely meant that Guentzel would be lucky to play again this season, only able to return for the playoffs, and almost certainly wouldn’t be able to get back to full strength. However, given the delay of the current pause, the status quo has shifted. Chris Adamski of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review relays word from GM Jim Rutherford that Guentzel’s rehab is going well and the team is optimistic that he will play again if the season resumes. Especially considering the strong likelihood that the NHL will need a mini training camp for teams to get back to game speed, Guentzel may even be back at full strength before a potential resumption of the regular season or start of the postseason in June or July. Guentzel recorded 43 points in 39 games playing with an injury-depleted forward corps prior to his own injury and would be a major asset for the Penguins, who would be the No. 3 seed in the Metropolitan Division if the playoffs began based on the current standings.

Pacific Notes: Seattle, Canucks, Puljujarvi, Palmu

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The 2021 NHL Expansion Draft is still two full seasons away, but the Seattle expansion team is not messing around in the meantime. If early indications hold true, Seattle will make their presence felt in the NHL long before they actually become an official club. On Thursday night, the second night of the new campaign, Seattle is already out scouting the competition – or more likely the 2021 free agent class and possible Expansion Draft offerings. The Athletic’s Sean Shapiro reports that, presumably for the first time, a Seattle scout is at a game in an official capacity. Former NHLer Stu Barnes is set to watch the Boston Bruins and Dallas Stars square off, two talent-laden teams who will likely have tough decisions to make come expansion time. However, this is likely just the beginning. Expect Barnes and company to be a fixture at games for the next two years.

  • With the Hurricanes’ Jordan Staal and Maple Leafs’ John Tavares recently joining the elite group that is NHL captains, the number of teams without a captain has shrunk even further. The Vegas Golden Knights have yet to name the first captain in franchise history, while the New York Rangers have also been without a captain since 2017-18. Meanwhile, the Detroit Red Wings, Ottawa Senators, and Vancouver Canucks have holdover vacancies from last season. However, this group is about lose yet another member. Canucks head coach Travis Green has stated that the team will formally announce their new captain ahead of their home opener on October 9. Canucks owner Francesco Aquilini confirmed as much today, stating that he, Green, and GM Jim Benning saw leadership begin to develop last season and feel they are ready to name a captain. Vancouver has already named four alternates – Alexander Edler, Bo Horvat, Brandon Sutter, and Chris Tanev – and the odds are that the new “C” will be one of the current “A”’s. If the team wants to reward loyalty and establish a veteran leader, Edler is the likely choice. If they want to anoint a young core player as the man to take the team into the future, Horvat will be the selection. Those two have a better chance than Sutter or Tanev, both of whom have seen their roles on the team questioned over the last year or so, but anything is possible.
  • Speaking with Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman writes in his latest “31 Thoughts” column that it is his impression that the team is simply waiting and hoping for a better return on disgruntled prospect Jesse Puljujarvi. Puljujarvi followed through on his threat and signed in Europe this off-season when the Oilers wouldn’t trade him. Since then, Edmonton has shifted their focus solely to moving out the young winger, but only at a fair price. Friedman writes that Holland can only hope that Puljujarvi’s trade stock gets a boost from his performance in Finland. Thus far, Puljujarvi has seven points in eight games for the Liiga’s Karpat, which puts him in the top-20 scorers early on, but not exactly at the top. Friedman does mention some actual names – for the first time – that came up in trade talks this summer but were seemingly dismissed by Edmonton: a trio of forwards including the Carolina Hurricanes’ Julien Gauthier, the St. Louis Blues’ Klim Kostin, and the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Alexander Volkov.
  • Another NHL prospect staying in Europe for a while longer is the Canucks’ Petrus Palmu. After news emerged on Wednesday that he was likely to be officially loaned to JYP of the Liiga, the Finnish club confirmed the transfer today. Palmu, a 2017 sixth-round pick who signed his entry-level contract in 2018 and played briefly in the AHL to begin last season, will continue to develop overseas for another year at least. Now officially signed with JYP, Palmu is set to make his season debut this weekend.

Metropolitan Notes: Crosby, Staal, Hudon, Kravtsov

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Many fans got worried Saturday when Pittsburgh Penguins star Sidney Crosby took a shot off of his foot and immediately left the game. The good news is that the injury isn’t too serious as NHL.com’s Wes Crosby writes that Crosby is listed as day-to-day. However, that also suggests that he is questionable for the season opener.

Crosby took a shot off his leg from Marco Scandella 6:42 into the first period in Saturday’s preseason game against the Buffalo Sabres, and while he did skate this morning to test his foot, he isn’t necessarily going to be ready for Thursday’s home opener against Buffalo.

“Injuries are a part of the game,” said Pittsburgh coach Mike Sullivan. “It is what it is. We just have to adjust. I think that’s where the versatility that our group has comes into play.”

  • The Carolina Hurricanes announced that longtime veteran Jordan Staal has been named captain of the team, replacing Justin Williams, who has decided to take some time off. The 31-year-old had served as a co-captain in 2017-18 and was an alternate captain for the other six years he’s been on the team, including last season. The team also announced that Jordan Martinook and defenseman Jaccob Slavin will serve as alternate captains this year.
  • While no players has been claimed yet on waivers, Philly.com’s Sam Carchidi reports that the Philadelphia Flyers could put in a claim for one tomorrow as the team might have some interest in Montreal Canadiens’ forward Charles Hudon. The forward was placed on waivers this afternoon. According to Carchidi, Flyers’ assistant coach Michel Therrien was a big fan of Hudon when he coached with the Canadiens. The 25-year-old only played 32 games last season for Montreal due to injuries, but scored 10 goals and 30 points in 2017-18.
  • One of the biggest decisions that the New York Rangers will have to make in the coming days is what to do with 2018 first-rounder Vitaly Kravtsov, according to The Athletic’s Rick Carpiniello (subscription required). The 19-year-old hasn’t impressed enough to force his way into the Rangers’ top-six and then the question is whether he would be better off spending some time in the AHL where he can develop his skills rather than play limited minutes with New York. The team may have to decide between Kravtsov, Filip Chytil and Brett Howden, none of which have been particularly impressive in the preseason.

Snapshots: Hurricanes, Krebs, Suzuki, Poehling

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Justin Williams has left the door open to return to the Carolina Hurricanes at some point during the upcoming season, but the team can’t rely on that possibility as part of their identity moving forward. For that reason, the team will replace him as captain, at least at some point. “Be perfectly clear on it”, head coach Rod Brind’Amour told the Associated Press, “He’s not part of the group. We’re moving on as if he’s not going to be here. If he comes to us in January or February and says, `Maybe I want to come back’… it’s not going to catch us by surprise. He’s earned the right to make that decision”. Veteran forward Jordan Staal echoed the sentiment, saying “as of now, we’re moving on from Willie as our captain and we’ll see where it takes us.”

Of course, Staal was on of two co-captains in Carolina in the season prior to Williams’ arrival, alongside defenseman Justin Faulk. Before that there had been no captain since the departure of the face of the franchise, Eric Staal, in 2016. It doesn’t appear as though these Hurricanes will let the captain role lie dormant in Williams’ wake as they did Staal, but Brind’Amour did say that it may take some time to name a replacement. The younger Staal and Faulk are both strong candidates to take over again. Top young players Jaccob Slavin and Sebastian Aho are also top options. For his part, Staal believes there are actually a number of possible players who can fill the role: ”I think as a core, as a group, we’ve got a lot of good kids and a lot of good leaders. ’Usually, as a captain, there’s a lot of guys beside him that are helping him out. I think Willie was a great leader, but as a core, I think there were a lot of great guys that showed up every day ready to work.”

  • On ability alone, Peyton Krebs should not have been the No. 17 pick in the 2019 NHL Draft. The talented young forward out of the WHL’s Winnipeg Ice (formerly Kootenay) was talked about as a possible top-five and certainly top-ten pick last season. However, Krebs tore his Achilles tendon during off-season training prior to the draft and teams became fearful of how it might affect his development. Krebs tumbled down the draft board until the Vegas Golden Knights felt his skill was too attractive to pass up. It seems the team already has a plan in place to best manage the injury as well. The Athletic’s Jesse Granger received word from GM Kelly McCrimmon that Krebs will remain in Las Vegas under the supervision of the team’s medical staff and conditioning team for as long as the Knights deem necessary. The club wants to keep a close eye on their new top prospect’s progress rather than send him back to junior and hope for the best. In fact, Krebs will not re-join the ice until he is game-ready. Early expectations were that Krebs could miss the entire 2019-20 season, so it could be that he doesn’t return to WHL action until this time next year. But if that’s what it takes to ensure that Krebs’ injury doesn’t further set his development back by taking the ice too soon, both team and player should be amenable to the arrangement.
  • Rookies Nick Suzuki and Ryan Poehling are undoubtedly aiming to make the Montreal Canadiens roster out of training camp. Both are high draft picks with considerable skill who should be ready for the highest level. However, head coach Joel Bouchard of the Canadiens’ AHL affiliate, the Laval Rocket, feels they should at least begin the year in the minors. He tells Sportsnet’s Eric Engels that, while his main objective is to graduate players to the NHL, he thinks the duo could benefit from a stint in the AHL and has spoken to both about the possibility. Bouchard lays out the difference between the two levels and why two players that Montreal hopes will be core forwards at some point may be better off starting in Laval, especially in a season where the Canadiens feel they can be playoff contenders:

The NHL is a performance league, it’s not a development league. We’re not making decisions for the same reasons. For Claude (Julien), everything is about now… Claude can’t do what we do. He doesn’t have the time. I put players in situations where they’re 100 per cent going to fail, face-offs on their wrong side just so they can learn. Claude can’t do that. It’s not like I’m doing it all the time like I want to lose the game… but at the end of the day, it’s about development.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Carolina Hurricanes

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Carolina Hurricanes

Current Cap Hit: $79,004,791 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Andrei Svechnikov (two years, $925K)
F Martin Necas (three years, $863K)
D Jake Bean (two years, $863K)
F Warren Foegele (one year, $747K)

Potential Bonuses:

Svechnikov: $2.65MM
Necas: $538K
Bean: $500K
Foegele: $20K

With a system full of top prospects, the Hurricanes got an impressive rookie season from Svechnikov, drafted with the second-overall pick in 2018, last season and now will have a top-six option for another two years at an entry-level cost. At 18 years old, he tallied 20 goals and 37 points and should be in line for more playing time and bigger numbers this season as a 19-year-old and could eventually become the franchise winger the team needs long-term. The Hurricanes also have high hopes for Necas to step in and take big role next season at the center position. The 2017 first-rounder had an impressive season for the Calder Cup Champion Charlotte Checkers of the AHL and could provide Carolina with some cheap talent.

Bean, the team’s first-rounder in 2016, has only made two appearances for Carolina, but could get a chance to take a much bigger role after a strong season with Charlotte, which saw his skills take that next step. The 23-year-old Foegele began to show off his offensive skill over the course of the season in Carolina. He scored 10 goals and 15 points during the regular season, but was even more impressive in the playoffs with five goals and nine points in just 15 games. If he can take his game up a notch, the Hurricanes could have an even more impressive offense next season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Justin Faulk ($4.83MM, UFA)
F Erik Haula ($2.75MM, UFA)
D Trevor van Riemsdyk ($2.3MM, UFA)
D Gustav Forsling ($874K, RFA)
D Haydn Fleury ($850K, RFA)
F Brian Gibbons ($725K, UFA)
F Clark Bishop ($700K, RFA)
F Lucas Wallmark ($675K, RFA)

There were rumors that suggested that talks between Carolina and Faulk were no where close on a potential extension and others that said negotiations were promising, however, Faulk could be a legitimate trade candidate if the team can’t eventually work out an extension. The 27-year-old Faulk had a solid season both defensively as he was finally in the positive on his plus/minus for the first time in his career, while also adding 11 goals and 35 points. However, with a number of young defensemen who are waiting for a chance to get an opportunity in Carolina, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Carolina unload him at the trade deadline.

Haula is an interesting acquisition. The 28-year-old was coming off a 29-goal season in Vegas’ inaugural season, but then suffered a gruesome knee injury and never returned. In the end, he played just 15 games, although he was close to returning late in the season with many believing that he would have been available had the Golden Knights had gotten deeper into the playoffs. If he can prove to be healthy, Haula might prove to be one of the best acquisitions of the year. Whether the Hurricanes will re-sign him will obviously depend on how he fares next season.

The team might be ready to move on from van Riemsdyk, who has served as a bottom pairing defenseman, but probably makes too much at $2.3MM to keep around long term, especially since Fleury hasn’t really had a true chance to prove himself and could be a better option at his price.

Two Years Remaining

D Dougie Hamilton ($5.75MM, UFA)
G James Reimer ($3.4MM, UFA)
F Ryan Dzingel ($3.38MM, UFA)
G Petr Mrazek ($3.13MM, UFA)
F Brock McGinn ($2.1MM, UFA)
F Jordan Martinook ($2MM, UFA)
G Alex Nedeljkovic ($738K, RFA)

The team has a number of interesting contracts with two years left, including their entire goaltending situation. The team has Mrazek, who put together a stellar season after years of inconsistency, and new backup Reimer as the new tandem with their top prospect in Nedeljkovic close to ready to step into the lineup. All three will likely stay this season as Nedeljkovic is waiver exempt and likely will just stay in the AHL. However, if he can prove in training camp that he’s ready for the back-up role, few would be surprised if the team found a way to unload Reimer, who had a terrible season last year in Florida.

Despite hearing constant rumors that Carolina was shopping Hamilton around this offseason, it looks like the Hurricanes will have the veteran defenseman for another season. He put up solid numbers, scoring 18 goals an 39 points and is solid defensively, but he could eventually be a trade candidate, perhaps as early as the trade deadline if the team struggles and can’t reproduce the same success it had a season ago. The team also hopes that they can get Dzingel to provide the same type of offense he was producing in Ottawa, rather than his struggles in Columbus. However, he should provide solid value at his pricetag and fit in nicely as a middle-six option.

Three Years Remaining

F Nino Niederreiter ($5.25MM, UFA)

It might have been the trade of the year when the Hurricanes acquired Niederreiter from Minnesota for Victor Rask. While Rask struggled in Minnesota, Niederreiter’s season took off when he arrived, scoring 14 goals and 30 points in 36 games and he slotted in nicely on the first line. If he can produce anything close to that, the team has a steal of a deal for the next three years. If his production drops back to what it was in Minnesota earlier in the year (nine goals and 23 points in 46 games) then the team has a contract that could be a burden for some time.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Sebastian Aho ($8.45MM through 2023-24)
F Jordan Staal ($6MM through 2022-23)
F Teuvo Teravainen ($5.4MM through 2023-24)
D Jaccob Slavin ($5.3MM through 2024-25)
D Brett Pesce ($4.03MM through 2023-24)

The Montreal Canadiens did Carolina a favor when they shocked the NHL by signing Aho to an offer sheet that didn’t look difficult to match. While five years likely isn’t ideal, the Hurricanes still now have their top franchise player signed until 2024 and can figure out its plans after that, but now are one of the few teams that have locked up their franchise restricted free agent already, with the rest still waiting to sign a contract. That should provide Aho, who had another breakout season with 30 goals and 83 points, with plenty of time to be ready for training camp and see if he can take his game to another level once again.

His linemate in Teravainen is another key piece of Carolina’s future who keeps producing better and better numbers. The 24-year-old produced 21 goals and a career-high 76 points and is locked up for another five years as well, giving Aho a solid winger to work with. The team, however, may not be as thrilled with the four years it still has in Staal, who produced one of his worst seasons although injuries did play apart. The 30-year-old still has four years at $6MM from a 10-year, $60MM deal he signed back in 2012. After posting just 11 goals and 28 points in 50 games, the team hopes he can bounce back.

One thing the Hurricanes did was locking up its young defenders. The team has seen Slavin develop into a top-line defenseman in the last year and to have him locked up at just $5.3MM for six more years will likely be one of the team’s biggest bargain for a long time. He has been averaging more than 22 minutes per game for three of his four seasons in the league. Pesce has also seen his game increase and is also a steal with the rising cost of young defensemen lately. Pesce saw his minutes break 20 minutes for a second straight season, while his offense increased by 10 points.

Buyouts

F Patrick Marleau ($6.25MM in 2019-20)
F Alexander Semin ($2.33MM through 2020-21)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Salary Cap Recapture

None

Still To Sign

F Justin Williams (UFA)
F Saku Maenalanen (RFA)
D Roland McKeown (RFA)

One question that is still up for grabs is whether Williams will return to the team. The 37-year-old winger has been told he can take as much time as he wants to determine whether he wants to return to hockey. He’s made it clear it’s either Carolina or retirement, but after putting up a solid campaign last year of 23 goals and 53 points, it’s hard to believe that the veteran leader is ready to hang it up if he still is capable of producing as a top-six forward. While he may eventually have to slide down to the third line, the veteran was critical to the team’s deep playoff run and Carolina hopes he will come back.

While McKeown might have a hard time finding playing time in Carolina’s stacked defense, the team will need to get Maenalanen signed at some point. The 6-foot-4 bottom-six winger stepped into the lineup late in the season and was a solid contributor, posting four goals and eight points in 34 games, while skating for just 9:26 of ATOI. He provided some physical play and if he can steal a spot on the fourth line, could be valuable.

Best Value: Slavin
Worst Value: Staal

Looking Ahead

The Carolina Hurricanes have done an impressive job of drafting well, developing their talent and adding veteran talent at reasonable prices. With most of their core already locked up long-term and plenty of talent still on entry-level contracts, the Hurricanes should be able to keep their team competitive for years and keep getting better as the team continues to develop.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Toughest First-Round Opponent For Tampa Bay Lightning?

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It’s been months since any team in the East other than the Tampa Bay Lightning was considered to have any real chance at the top seed in the conference. The Lightning have been one of the most dominant regular season teams in recent memory, locking up the President’s Trophy more than two weeks ago and joining the 60-win club earlier this week.

What has also been clear for some time is that Tampa would be destined to face the Boston Bruins or Toronto Maple Leafs in the second round of the playoffs, as their two divisional rivals have been near the top of the league standings for much of the year and always on a collision course to play each other in round one due to the NHL’s current playoff format. Yet, it’s easy to forget that the Lightning too have to win in the first round. Many have taken it as a foregone conclusion that Tampa would advance, but upsets occur in sports and the Lighting are as susceptible to a collapse as any heavy favorites that have fallen in the past.

So who has the best chance to knock off the regular season champs? Well, the defending Stanley Cup winners would have been an ideal match-up, but the Washington Capitals pulled out of range of a wild card finish earlier this week and clinched the top seed in the Metropolitan Division with a win on Thursday. The New York Islanders, with their suffocating defensive style and stellar goaltending, also would have been an intriguing opponent, but they have also assured themselves of a non-wildcard spot. Finally, the star-studded Pittsburgh Penguins would have made for a difficult and highly entertaining series with the Bolts, but a win on Thursday night guaranteed that they cannot finish any lower than seventh in the conference.

That leaves three potential opponents for Tampa Bay in round one: the Carolina Hurricanes, the Columbus Blue Jackets, and the Montreal Canadiens. Two of these three teams will make the playoffs – Carolina has clinched a playoff berth with a Thursday night victory – but only one will be lucky enough to land the second wild card spot and go up against the Lightning. Of these three, which one could pull off the eight seed upset?

The Hurricanes are on pace to finish seventh in the East and avoid Tampa and they cannot be caught by the Canadiens. However, if the the Blue Jackets pass by Carolina, the team would have to celebrate their first postseason in ten years by playing the Bolts. The ’Canes could give the Lightning problems with their ability to suppress shots, as they are the only team in the conference that allows less than 29 shots per game on average. A defense corps that is among the deepest and most talented in the league makes offense a struggle for the opposition and the added bonus of consistent play in net explains why Carolina is eighth-best in the league in goals against per game. Despite the franchise’s lack of postseason experience of late, Justin Williams and Jordan Staal are also major assets when it comes to playing smart, tough playoff hockey. The main concern for the Hurricanes though is that they have not been as successful offensively as they have been defensively. Despite leading the league in shots per game, the team is 16th in goals for per game and 20th on the power play and they’ve lacked game-breaking scoring talent this season outside of Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen. It’s impossible to expect to shutout Tampa Bay, so if Carolina can’t find some secondary scoring they could struggle against the Bolts.

As of now, Columbus looks like the favorite to finish eighth and play Tampa. That might not be what GM Jarmo Kekalainen expected when he added Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel, and Adam McQuaid at the trade deadline, but those moves will certainly help anyway. The Blue Jackets franchise has never won a playoff series and doing so against this Lightning team would be a tall task. However, they have both considerable talent and a chip on their shoulder. Like Carolina, Columbus does not allow many shots nor many goals and additionally have the best penalty kill in the conference. Unlike Carolina, they also have a star goalie in Sergei Bobrovsky. The Jackets would need Bobrovksy to shake off past struggles in the postseason, but if he does the Vezina Trophy-winner could be a game-changer. Offensively, Columbus has had an up-and-down year but are currently 12th in goals for per game. Duchene and Dzingel are major additions to a forward unit that already included elite talent like Artemi Panarin and Cam Atkinson. Unfortunately, all of this ability up front has still not led to consistent offense nor has it cured a miserable power play. Failure to capitalize on opportunities could be the Achilles heel of this team.

Then there’s Montreal, who need some help to make the playoffs, but could make waves if they do. The Canadiens can only end up in the eighth seed, so it’s Tampa or bust. Montreal can never quite be counted out with Carey Price in net and Shea Weber on the blue line, but the question is whether the other pieces are there to pull off not one but four wins against the Bolts. To their credit, the Habs have been a very balanced, consistent team this season that is right in the middle of the pack when it comes to goals and shots for as well as goals and shots against. Their power play is dead last in the NHL, which is obviously not typical of a playoff team, but it’s hard to find many other holes in their game. The problem is that nothing jumps out as being good enough for a massive upset, either. If Max Domi and Tomas Tatar stay hot and Price stands on his head as usual, anything is possible, but the Canadiens have simply been a good team and anyone who beats the Lightning will need to be great. Can they step up?

What do you think? The standings might say Columbus is the most likely opponent for Tampa Bay at this point, but who would be the toughest match-up for the President’s Trophy winners?

Lightning’s Yanni Gourde Suspended Two Games

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The NHL Department of Player Safety is on a run. After assigning Ottawa Senators forward Jean-Gabriel Pageau a one-game suspension yesterday, they have stayed in the Atlantic Division with a punishment for Tampa Bay Lightning forward Yanni Gourde. Player Safety has determined that Gourde’s illegal check to the head of the Carolina Hurricanes’ Jordan Staal is worthy of a two-game suspension.

The ban is almost more of a three-game suspension, as Gourde was tossed from Thursday night’s game after the first period altercation due to a match penalty. This is Gourde’s first incidence of supplemental discipline, having never been previously suspended or fined, but he has already set a career-high in penalty minutes this season and his often overly-aggressive style and the clear intent of the hit were enough to levy a substantial suspension. Player Safety explained as much (video):

With one hand on his stick, Staal holds off (Ryan) Callahan and moves the puck to a teammates. As he does so, Gourde cuts across the front of Staal and delivers a forceful hit that picks Staal’s head, making it the main point of contact. On a play where such head contact was avoidable, this is an illegal check to the head. It is important to note that the head is the main point of contact on this play, as Gourde’s shoulder makes clear and forceful contact with Staal’s head. While we acknowledge Gourde’s argument that Staal was bent low and stumbling as he plays the puck, this hit does not meet any of the criteria for unavoidable head contact… Based on their relative positions on the ice, Gourde has angles of approach available to him that do not require hitting through Staal’s head. In addition, Staal’s head does not materially change position just prior to contact to cause it to become the main point of contact for a hit that otherwise would have been legal… Even before Staal stumbles, Gourde takes an angle that cuts in front of Staal’s core, picks Staal’s head, and makes it the main point of contact.

Gourde clearly used his hearing with Player Safety this morning to argue that the hit to the head would not have occurred if Staal – at 6’4″ – was not stumbling forward while Gourde – at 5’9″ – was trying to make the check. Player Safety throws out this explanation, stating that Gourde’s trajectory was always one with intent to hit a defenseless Staal in the head area. Fortunately, Staal was able to return to the game. The Hurricanes star has a history of concussions and an injury absence may have landed Gourde with a longer suspension. Instead, he will miss the next to games for the Lightning, who have little to play for having already locked up the President’s Trophy.

Yanni Gourde To Face Hearing With Department Of Player Safety

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The Tampa Bay Lightning may lose one of their talented forwards for at least a game, as Yanni Gourde is scheduled to have a hearing with the Department of Player Safety today. Gourde made clear head contact with Carolina Hurricanes forward Jordan Staal last night, and received a match penalty for it. Staal returned to the game.

Gourde was guaranteed a hearing with the league as a match penalty carries with it an indefinite automatic suspension, and it’s easy to see why he was assessed the penalty. Though there may be some leniency given due to the fact that Staal was being hauled down from behind and may have not been in the position Gourde expected, but there is clear, hard contact with his head and not really any other part of his body.

The diminutive Gourde is known for his offense but is also more than willing to engage physically, and has recorded 81 hits in 75 games this season. He has never been suspended in his short career however, which also may keep his penalty down. Regardless, the Lightning almost have nothing to play for down the stretch as they have already locked up the Presidents Trophy and will be the first seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Losing Gourde for a few games will only affect his pocketbook and future disciplinary action.

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