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Latest From Insider Trading: Duchene, Barrie, Oilers

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In the latest edition of Insider Trading from TSN (video link), Bob McKenzie reports that Avalanche forward Matt Duchene is the “player most likely” to be traded this summer.  Duchene has long been linked to the rumor mill throughout this past season but GM Joe Sakic’s asking price was too high to get an in-season deal done.

The 26 year old is coming off a down year with Colorado, recording 18 goals and 23 assists in 77 games, his lowest full-season output since 2011-12.  He has two years remaining on his current contract with a cap hit of $6MM before being eligible for unrestricted free agency.  The current free agent crop is lacking in impact top six forwards so despite a high price, there should be several teams interested in his services.

While McKenzie wouldn’t guarantee a deal gets done during the offseason, he classifies the situation as one where both the Avalanche and Duchene are hoping for a fresh start.

Other notes to pass along from the segment (although the full video is worth a watch):

  • The belief is that Sakic is still coveting a top blueliner in order to let Duchene go. Darren Dreger notes that part of the reason for that is to potentially allow Colorado to then move defenseman Tyson Barrie.  The 25 year old is a strong producer from the back end although his play in his own end has been a concern for them for a while now.  Barrie has three years left on his deal at a $5.5MM cap charge and Dreger believes it will take a top draft pick or a combination of picks and prospects to get a deal done.
  • While some expected that Edmonton’s Connor McDavid would see his extension for 2018-19 done before the team tries to deal with pending RFA Leon Draisaitl but Dreger reports that the Oilers would like to get both done at the same time. These two contracts will be the top priority in Edmonton this summer and considering the dollars it will take to get both done, they would undoubtedly like to get those contracts done sooner than later so they have a better sense of their salary cap situation before getting too deep into free agency or the trade market.
  • On that note, Dreger suggests that Oilers winger Jordan Eberle will “definitely get traded” this summer. Clearing his $6MM cap hit for two more years would ensure that Edmonton has plenty of money to get McDavid and Draisaitl’s new contracts done.  Earlier this week, GM Peter Chiarelli stated that he doesn’t think that they necessarily have to make a cap-clearing move this offseason but that they will have to at some point in the next couple of seasons.  Like Duchene, Eberle is a top six forward in a market that doesn’t have many of them available so the timing may be right for Chiarelli to do a deal now.

Speculation Continues Regarding Jordan Eberle

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Though the Edmonton Oilers haven’t come out and said that Jordan Eberle is on the block, his name continues to pop up in trade speculation all around the league. Today, while releasing the first edition of “Trade Bait”, TSN’s Frank Seravalli wrote:

The Edmonton Oilers will look to move winger Jordan Eberle and his $6-million salary cap hit after a dismal playoff run that saw him fail to score a single goal over two rounds. Jordan Eberle

Eberle appears at #6 on the list, wedged between a pair of defensemen from teams that missed the playoffs. Despite his miserable playoff performance, Eberle remains a perennial 20-goal scorer and one of the most consistent offensive producers in the league. Though he hasn’t quite reached the sophomoric highs he reached in 2011-12, he can be counted on to score at least 50 points even in a reduced role like he saw this year. After turning 27 just a few weeks ago, he surely has some effective years left under his belt.

It’s that pesky $6MM that is getting in the way in Edmonton, as just this week GM Peter Chiarelli admitted that they’d have to move out a contract sooner or later to accommodate the big deals looming for Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid. The team will also have to pay to retain Kris Russell this summer should they choose to bring him back. Eberle is the prime candidate because of his value—the fact that he still has some, unlike Benoit Pouliot—and position on the wing. He could be moved and replaced much easier than Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for instance, who is an important center for them as long as Draisaitl continues to skate alongside McDavid.

The fact that Seravalli has him so high on the board suggests that there is real fire behind the smoke, and that Edmonton is really considering a move for the former Team Canada hero. It may though have to wait, as if he’s moved for a defenseman like Taylor Hall last season, it could put the Oilers into protection trouble for the expansion draft. More likely, he’d be moved at the draft or sometime this summer after the insanity known as June is over. For now, we’ll just have to wait and see.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

West Notes: Eberle, Russell, Seguin

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Although the expectation is that the Oilers will have to move out one of their bigger contracts to accommodate the second contracts for Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid (as of 2018-19), GM Peter Chiarelli told TSN’s Pierre LeBrun that he doesn’t anticipate having to necessarily make that cap-clearing move this offseason:

“The way we are going to have to spend our money in the future will probably mean us moving a player.  When that future is, I don’t know. Basically, we’ve got a year to play with, in my mind.”

Jordan Eberle’s name has come up in frequent trade speculation after a tough postseason performance where he collected just two assists in 13 playoff games although he did reach the 20 goal and 50 point plateaus during the regular season.  He has two years at $6MM remaining on his deal which makes him a candidate to move if they decide to try to clear up space this summer.  As things stand, Edmonton has just shy of $54MM in payroll committed for next season to 18 players per CapFriendly with Draisaitl the only real core player that needs to be re-signed.

Elsewhere out West:

  • Still with the Oilers, Chiarelli told LeBrun that they would like to re-sign pending unrestricted free agent Kris Russell for next season. He noted that the new deal for Draisaitl and McDavid’s extension are the top priorities to deal with and that their contracts may shape what type of contract that they could offer the 30 year old defenseman.  Earlier this month, Russell indicated that he would like to sign a new deal with Edmonton.
  • Stars center Tyler Seguin’s recovery from labrum surgery has gone well so far and he is expected to be ready for training camp, GM Jim Nill told NHL.com’s Mike Morreale. Nill expects the forward – who is now out of his sling – to be able to start offseason training by the end of June.  Seguin played through the injury for a big chunk of the season and went under the knife on April 25th.

Takeaways From Peter Chiarelli’s Year-End Press Conference

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The fact that the Oilers will be without top-four defenseman Andrej Sekera for a decent chunk of next season wasn’t the only notable bit of news that  came from GM Peter Chiarelli’s year-end press conference on Tuesday.

He also discussed his summer plans for the team, and no, he doesn’t see another Taylor Hall-for-Adam Larsson type blockbuster. Chiarelli did say that he was open to the idea of trading down in the upcoming Entry Draft; the team has the 22nd overall pick, no second, and two third-round picks in the first 93 picks. Because this draft is seen as weaker than previous years, Chiarelli said acquiring a second-round pick isn’t a necessity but that if a trade came up, he’d consider moving down from #22 to acquire more picks.

Also on the trade front, Chiarelli called the widespread criticism of Jordan Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’s playoffs unfair. Trade speculation has run wild around those two, especially Eberle, but Chiarelli pumped the breaks on the suggestion that they need to be dumped at any cost. He praised Eberle’s improvement along the boards, and talked about the lack of confidence that the sniper suffered from. Eberle took 208 shots, which is the most he’s taken so far in his seven-year career, but shot at just a nine per cent rate, considerably down from his previous career-average of 14 per cent. Had he shot at that rate, he’d have scored 29 goals instead of 20. Chiarelli stressed that the team will be “careful about how [they] evaluate him.”

As far as Nugent-Hopkins, the general manager stressed the team-wide need of improving in the face-off circle. Chiarelli said that he gave Nugent-Hopkins “homework” for the summer. While Chiarelli kept a positive tone publicly, with both men on the trading block it would have been a poor decision to criticize them. With questions remaining about what position Leon Draisaitl will ultimately play and the acquisition of David Desharnais not being overly successful, Chiarelli will likely be looking to give Todd McLellan some more options in the face-off circle.

The main priority for Edmonton is signing their two best forwards to new contracts. Draisaitl is an RFA this summer, and Connor McDavid will be eligible to extend his deal on July 1. Chiarelli called McDavid priority one and Draisaitl priority two of this summer. All other free agents, like rugged winger and playoff cult hero Zack Kassian and controversial defenseman Kris Russell will have to wait until Chiarelli knows what sort of numbers he’s dealing with. The two men combined for about $6.4MM in cap space this past season (entry-level contracts plus bonuses), but will account for as much as $20MM by next season.

As far as the potential of a rival team offer sheeting Draisaitl, Chiarelli isn’t worried about that. Last week, I wrote about why offer sheets are so rare, and Chiarelli mentioned one of the stated reasons. The Oilers have the cap space to match any offer sheet to Draisaitl, so the only reason another team would submit an offer is to jack up the price. It’s highly unlikely that a team would go out of their way to try hurt another team’s cap situation because of the negative affect it would have on that GM’s reputation.

Had Sekera not been injured, the Oilers defense might not have had any changes on opening night. Oscar Klefbom is developing into a good top-pairing defenseman, Larsson had a strong first season, Darnell Nurse and Matt Benning have made strides together, and Chiarelli expressed interest in re-signing Russell and Eric Gryba. Chiarelli admitted the team doesn’t have a championship defense (yet). He pointed to Nashville and Anaheim, saying that “it would be nice to have a D at that level.”

Russell is loved by old-school hockey people, and considered highly overrated by people with a mind for advanced stats. While Russell blocks a ton of shots (213 in 68 games), he bleeds possession and hasn’t had a positive CF% Rel. (scoring chances when he’s on the ice compared to off the ice) since 2012 when he was in Columbus. He also scored just one goal this season despite playing the third-most minutes of all skaters. However, the injury to Sekera could motivate the Oilers to sign Russell to help fill the void. As mentioned above, Chiarelli will wait until he knows what McDavid and Draisaitl will cost before making any considerable signing, even if it means waiting until after July 1.

Chiarelli said the team blew his expectations out of the water, finishing with 103 points and getting to Game 7 of the second round. This summer will be about locking up key pieces and letting the young roster develop next season.

Morning Notes: Maple Leafs, Eberle, Bishop

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The Maple Leafs took an impressive step forward in 2016-17, riding the backs of several rookies to their first playoff appearance in a full season since 2004. While they were ultimately defeated by the Washington Capitals, their fan base was enthused by the performance and expects big things from them over the next several years. James Mirtle of The Athletic (subscription needed) took a look at their salary cap situation, and proposes that the Maple Leafs should make a big splash this summer before they have to pay the likes of Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner more than their current entry-level deals.

Mirtle shows that the Leafs may have as much as $15MM to spend this summer and would be wise to invest it in short-term veteran help for the team to push them into contention immediately. Joe Thornton, Ilya Kovalchuk, Alexander Radulov all make hypothetical appearances among the Maple Leafs forwards, while the contention that a right-handed defenseman is still of the highest importance remains. Toronto, who holds the 17th-overall pick in the upcoming entry draft could theoretically use some of their prospect capital and cap room to be one of the biggest players in both free agency and the trade market this summer.

  • Jordan Eberle has become a sort of whipping-boy in Edmonton of late, after his play in the postseason took a sharp downward turn. Many fans have been clamoring for his head, wanting to ship him out for the next Adam Larsson. While obviously he still holds value following his 51 point season that included a fourth-straight 20+ goal effort, Eberle will be very difficult to move contends David Staples of the Edmonton Journal. Staples quotes TSN Head Scout Craig Button in the piece, agreeing that a $6MM cap-hit is no easy transaction. Staples writes that Buffalo, Vancouver and New Jersey—the same team that accepted a Taylor Hall deal last summer—would be interested in Eberle and hold the needed cap room for the next few seasons.
  • According to the venerable Renaud Lavoie for Le Journal de Montreal, the Stars actually pursued Scott Darling before acquiring Ben Bishop last week. Darling was the team’s first choice, but they wouldn’t part with the third-round pick it took for Carolina to finally lock down his negotiating rights. Darling signed a $16.6MM deal with the Hurricanes, while Bishop inked a six-year, $29.5MM contract with Dallas. It’s interesting to note that Darling is two years younger than Bishop, but received two fewer years on his contract. With an even lower cap-hit, Darling’s seems to be the much more attractive of the two deals, making the difference between a fourth—what the Stars eventually gave up for Bishop—and a third round pick seem more than acceptable.

Oilers Notes: Free Agents, Draisaitl, Eberle, Pouliot

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The Edmonton Oilers were eliminated by the Anaheim Ducks in Game 7 on Wednesday night; now comes the post-season autopsies and plans for the coming summer.

The face of the franchise and perhaps the league, Connor McDavid is eligible to sign an extension on July 1. Pending-RFA Leon Draisaitl lead the Oilers in playoff scoring after finishing eighth in the NHL during the regular season. Those two players will go from entry-level contracts to somewhere between $16-20MM by next summer.

The upcoming McDavid contract has already been the subject of much digital ink. Now, Draisaitl’s breakout season has lead to questions about what he’s worth. At the beginning of the year, the debate was bridge-deal or long-term. After a 77-point campaign, it’s clear that the Oilers will be looking long-term with their young star. Over at Sportsnet, Jonathan Willis explored previous contracts for comparable stars. Based on contracts signed by players like Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Anze Kopitar, and Johnny Gaudreau, Willis writes that Draisaitl’s new contract ought to be in the $6 to $6.5MM range. However, because of Draisaitl’s 37-game rookie season and the influence of McDavid, Willis notes that both sides have leverage.

Other free agents include Kris Russell, Zack Kassian, and Matt Hendricks. Hendricks will certainly be off the books, clearing close to $2MM. Russell will be interesting, as he’s the only member of the regular top-six who’s not under contract next season. If the Oilers want to improve their blue line, then Russell’s spot is the clear choice to upgrade.

  • On Thursday morning, the Oilers announced that Draisaitl will join Germany at the IIHF World Championships in Paris, France, and Cologne, Germany.  The native of Cologne ought to help Germany’s chances, as the team has just one regulation win in four games so far. It’s been a busy season for Draisaitl, who has played 104 games since mid-August beginning with the Olympic Qualifiers, the World Cup of Hockey, all 82 NHL regular season games, and then 13 NHL playoff games.
  • Eberle’s poor regular season and playoffs may mean he’s on the way out. He didn’t score a single goal during the playoffs, and was even outscored by Nashville goaltender Pekka Rinne by a score of three assists to two.  As Sportsnet’s Luke Fox puts it, “You’re selling low on Jordan Eberle, but you’re still selling, right?” Provided the Oilers can find more scoring depth on the right wing, then expect Eberle to be on his way out. Fox suggests Carolina, New Jersey, and Vegas as possible trade partners.
  • Left-winger Benoit Pouliot also struggled mightily this season, with just 14 points in the regular season and none in the playoffs. He also comes at a $4MM price tag, which makes any trade unlikely. He’ll be exposed to Vegas, with perhaps a prospect or pick offered as a sweetner. Failing that, a buyout could be the next option. It was a bad year, but Pouliot has previously scored a solid rate while being an aggressive forechecker and good penalty-killer. His penchant for bad penalties got him in coach Todd McLellan’s doghouse and he couldn’t play his way out.

Snapshots: DeBrincat, Hansen, Eberle

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The Chicago Blackhawks have another one coming. For a team that has drafted near the end of the first round for the past decade, they have re-filled their prospect cupboards quite effectively. Even without a first round pick last season, the Blackhawks look like they’ve struck gold with their top selection. Alex DeBrincat scored twice again today for the Erie Otters and broke 60 goals for the first time in his junior career.

DeBrincat is currently on a 17-game goal streak, and is a lock to lead the OHL in scoring this season. This from a player who was cut from the Team USA World Junior squad late last year, and had to wait until 39th overall to hear his name last summer. While it’s not certain that he’ll be able to duplicate his scoring touch at higher levels, his skill, creativity and shot have dominated the OHL since the moment he stepped on the ice. In three seasons, DeBrincat has scored 324 points in 185 games including 119 (60G, 59A) this season.

  • While Nikolay Goldobin is scoring breakaway goals in Vancouver, the San Jose Sharks are still waiting for their big deadline acquisition to join them on the ice. Jannik Hansen has been held up by work visa issues since the deadline, and still won’t join the team in Minnesota tonight according to Kent Youngblood of the Mercury News. He’s also not expected to play tomorrow night against the Winnipeg Jets, but should be ready to go on Thursday when the Sharks return home.
  • Tim Campbell of NHL.com discusses the Edmonton Oilers and their new line of Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Milan Lucic in his latest column. The trio has found instant success, and Eberle is feeling like it has actually been an excellent season for him, despite the lack of goal scoring. As Campbell points out, the 26-year old winger has an extremely low shooting percentage this year at just 8.8% but still has 14 goals and 39 points this season. If it came up to a more regular percentage of 12.5%—which is still much lower than his career mark—he’d have his fourth straight 20-goal season already. The Oilers can’t wait to see what he has in store for the playoffs, as Eberle was once known as one of the most “clutch” performers in hockey from his time at the World Juniors. In 56 career international contests—which includes five appearances in the World Championships—Eberle has recorded 70 points.

Edmonton Oilers Had Deal For Kevin Shattenkirk Fall Apart In Summer

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We’ve known for a long time that the Edmonton Oilers were looking for a right-handed defenseman last summer. They ended up trading Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson in what was once considered an extreme overpay, but they were connected to other players prior to that. On June 24th, Lou Korac of NHL.com tweeted that Edmonton was “in talks” with the St. Louis Blues over Kevin Shattenkirk, with St. Louis asking for either Hall or Jordan Eberle in return. A few days later, on June 28th we wrote this piece describing Shattenkirk’s possible willingness to be traded to the Western Conference, opening the door for the Oilers just a crack. Kevin Shattenkirk

But Edmonton didn’t want a player under contract for just one year, and needed to get Shattenkirk signed long term if they were to pull the trigger. Frank Seravalli revealed on TSN 1260 today that the two teams had in fact had come to an agreement that would send Shattenkirk to Edmonton, contingent on a long-term extension. It was done. Agreed upon. Finished. But, when Shattenkirk wouldn’t agree to deal it fell apart. The Hall-Larsson swap was completed June 29th (a day that will live in infamy).

Seravalli doesn’t pinpoint when exactly this deal was completed in principal, but it feels like it was likely just before the team sent out its superstar winger for an criminally underrated Larsson since they would have had a tough time fitting in both right-handed shots at the time. It’s possible, it just seems unlikely. Seravalli goes on to say that they should still try to get him now, and try to convince him to stay with what looks like will be one of the best teams in the Western Conference for a long time. He could improve a powerplay that is already in the top half of the league and allow young Matt Benning to develop and dominate on the third pairing.

While it could still happen, it likely will never be as close as it was in the summer. One wonders how different the season would look for all parties if it had been an Eberle-Shattenkirk deal instead. But, just like most talks that you never hear about this one ended before it even had a chance.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Snapshots: Oilers, Eberle, Kaprizov

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The Edmonton Oilers are in a position to buy for the first time in several deadlines, but that doesn’t mean they should. Their core is still incredibly young, led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl along with a handful of defenders 25 and under. Spending prospect or draft pick capital on a high-priced rental isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but when you’re looking to build long-term success it’s not usually prudent. That’s what Peter Chiarelli thinks at least, in the latest piece from David Staples of the Edmonton Journal. Chiarelli admitted that the group that is winning for the first time in a while deserves some additions, but doesn’t think his front office will be busy on deadline day.

When Chiarelli mentions his offseason moves that are “coming around” he certainly is referring to Adam Larsson, who after a shaky start to the season is starting to turn into the minute-muncher that they’d hoped for. While plus-minus isn’t a perfect stat by any means, Larsson was a -3 through the end of 2016 and has been a +17 since. While a lot of that is dependent on linemates and situations, Larsson has by all accounts started to turn the corner into the excellent puck possession defender they had hoped for. Chiarelli doesn’t think rentals are on the table for his squad, and he might be right. A turned corner by Milan Lucic, another offseason acquisition, would give the Oilers everything they need to make a deep run in these playoffs.

  • Darren Dreger of TSN was on the radio this morning and mentioned that a while back teams were kicking the tires on Jordan Eberle, though discussions didn’t go very far. It will be interesting to see whether the Oilers shop him this summer, as they have to pay Draisaitl this summer and McDavid the year after. After moving Taylor Hall last summer, Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are likely targets this time ’round.
  • Igor Eronko of Sport-Express reports that Minnesota Wild prospect Kirill Kaprizov will move to CSKA Moscow in the KHL after this season, when his contract is up. Currently playing with Salavat Yulayev, Kaprizov has 42 points in 49 games. The 19-year old winger was selected in the fifth round of the 2015 draft, and would be a big addition if the team eventually convinces him to come to North America. For now, he’ll reportedly go to one of the KHL’s best teams and look to continue his development.

Western Conference Snapshots: Russell, Davidson, Coyotes, Stars

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Like many teams, the Edmonton Oilers will face some difficult choices when choosing whom to protect in the expansion draft. The recent emergence of Brandon Davidson and the team’s reported desire to re-sign Kris Russell beyond the current campaign has created a surprising logjam on the blue line. Assuming the team elects to protect seven forwards and three defensemen, it’s a near certainty that the Oil will keep Adam Larsson, Oscar Klefbom and Andrej Sekera, which means the team will have to expose Davidson. But David Staples of the Edmonton Journal offers up a solution for Edmonton: protect four defenders, including Davidson, and make Jordan Eberle available to Vegas to select.

While acknowledging that Russell has been a solid, if unspectacular addition to the team’s defense corps and probably would be worth a modest extension, Staples argues that Davidson, four years the former’s junior, is a better long-term option due to his cost and similar on-ice performance. As a pending free agent, Russell won’t have to be protected from the expansion draft unless he inks an extension prior, but Davidson will or the club risks losing him for nothing. One way to make the numbers work would be to leave Eberle unprotected. Eberle, who has two more years on a deal with a $6MM annual cap charge, has underachieved this season, registering just 11 goals in 55 games. If Vegas took a chance on the gifted offensive winger, it would solve two problems for Edmonton: one, it allows the team to keep Davidson and two, the team would save a sizable chunk of cap space which can then be allocated to long-term extensions for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who will reach restriced free agency following the 2017-18 and 2016-17 seasons, respectively.

Elsewhere in the Western Conference:

  • The Arizona Coyotes are one of only a small handful of teams known to consider themselves sellers ahead of the trade deadline and they have several marketable assets that will draw interest in the coming weeks. Sarah McLellan of AZ Central lists the players she believes could be moved at the deadline. Martin Hanzal headlines the list as she notes his size and two-way acumen would appeal to practically any playoff contender. Right-shot defender Michael Stone, in the final year of his contract, could be an attractive piece since most teams are looking for blue line depth, particularly on the right side, at this time of year. McLellan includes Shane Doan but writes that it may be next to impossible to find the right fit; a serious Stanley Cup contender in need of a player of his ilk. Perhaps the most interesting name to make the cut was that of Anthony Duclair. The 21-year-old winger was considered a foundation building block coming into the season but with just nine points in 41 games earning him a demotion to the minors, it’s clear he has fallen out of favor in the desert.
  • Mike Heika recently fielded questions from readers in a mailbag feature on SportsDayDFW.com and offered insight into a wide array of Stars-related topics. The biggest concern readers seem to share is the club’s struggles in the goal-prevention department. Heika points out that goaltending is a huge problem, with the team’s netminders registering a Save % of 0.904 compared to the Washington Capitals league-leading rate of 0.928. The Stars have committed more than $10MM of cap space to Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen, a figure more than any other team has allocated toward their top two goalies. If the Stars want to salvage their season they may need to strongly consider an upgrade between the pipes and as we learned yesterday, the team has apparently shown interest in Marc-Andre Fleury already. While the Penguins are likely going to deal Fleury before the upcoming expansion draft, it’s unclear how much they would get in return.

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