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Atlantic Notes: Toronto’s Goalies, Carrick, Kronwall, Joseph

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The Toronto Maple Leafs have a tough decision in front of them in net as head coach Mike Babcock and general manager Kyle Dubas must decide who will be their backup goalie as the team still has four goalies on their training camp roster, including starter Frederik Andersen, incumbent backup Curtis McElhinney as well as AHL stars Garret Sparks and Calvin Pickard, according to Kevin McGran of the Toronto Star.

That could be a bigger decision than thought despite the solid season that McElhinney had last year. The 35-year-old posted a 2.14 GAA and a .934 save percentage in 18 games last year, but is on the final year of a team-friendly contract ($850K) and could conceivably cost the team, expected to have cap problems starting next season, quite a bit next season. Sparks, on the other hand, will just be a restricted free agent next season after posting impressive numbers for the AHL’s Toronto Marlies, the Calder Cup champions, when the 25-year-old posted a 1.79 GAA in 43 games with a .936 save percentage. Pickard, thought to be the future of the Vegas Golden Knights, is also on the roster.

The fear is the team would likely lose Sparks if they place him on waivers to send him to the AHL, which might force the team to decide which player they would rather have, not just this season, but as their future long-term backup. Pickard, who was a backup in Colorado two years ago, could also be lost as well if they decide to place him on waivers.

  • McGran, in the same story, adds that the Maple Leafs are also looking to trade a few of their players, most notably defenseman Connor Carrick, who the team fears they will lose if they place him on waivers. Carrick got into 47 games last season, posting four goals and 12 points, but could be highly coveted by teams with defensive issues such as the Vancouver Canucks or even the Detroit Red Wings.
  • The Detroit News’ Ted Kulfan writes that veteran defenseman Niklas Kronwall tweaked something in practice and now is questionable for the team’s season opener, joining Jonathan Ericsson and Trevor Daley as questionable for Thursday. Mike Green is already considered out. With those potential losses, Detroit will have to depend on their plethora of young defensemen to fill in. Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James writes that defenseman Dennis Cholowski has already won a spot on the team’s defense, but Filip Hronek, Joe Hicketts and Libor Sulak all could stay depending on those injuries.
  • While there is no specific word on whether or not he’s made the Tampa Bay Lightning, it’s expected that rookie Mathieu Joseph is a top candidate to make the team, according to Tom Jones of the Tampa Bay Times. Joseph stands out the most with a preseason high of four goals. The scribe describes Joseph as a future star, who could come out of no where such as Brayden Point.

Injury Notes: Red Wings, Bogosian, Beleskey, Peca

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The Detroit Red Wings’ defense could look much different to begin the season than many expected. With top pair defenseman Mike Green already shut down and confirmed to be out for at least the team’s opener due to a viral infection, coach Jeff Blashill revealed today that banged-up blue liners Danny DeKeyser, Jonathan Ericsson, and Trevor Daley are all considered questionable to begin the season. As Ansar Khan of MLive.com points out, it could be a very young, inexperienced defensive corps to start the year in Detroit. Niklas Kronwall and Nick Jensen could be the only regulars healthy enough to play, joined perhaps by a veteran like Brian Lashoff or Dylan McIlrath. Outside of those options, rookies will likely make up the rest of the top six. 5’8″ Joe Hicketts, who got a brief look last season, leads the way, with 2016 first-rounder Dennis Cholowski, second-rounder the same year Filip Hronek, and Czech import Libor Sulak in the mix as well.

  • Injury news about Zach Bogosian usually isn’t good and unfortunately, this could be trending in that direction as well. Bogosian has been taking it easy in training camp, working his way back from major hip surgery, but the Athletic’s Joe Yerndon reports that he has still managed to get injured. According to head coach Phil Housley, Bogosian is day-to-day with a lower-body injury. Even worse, Yerndon notes that it is a new injury, unrelated to his hip issues. Bogosian’s career has been marred by frequent injuries and an inability to bounce back quickly. The Sabres have to hope that this case is different, as Bogosian and Marco Scandella will be needed to lead a young defensive unit and groom top overall pick Rasmus Dahlin.
  • It didn’t take long for the New York Rangers to get clarification on Matt Beleskey’s status. After head coach David Quinn said yesterday that it was “too early to tell” the extent of Beleskey’s injury, suffered during a fight on Monday night, the Rangers released an update today. Beleskey will be out two to four weeks with a separated shoulder, the team determined. Since Beleskey was a likely training camp casualty anyway, the only change for the Rangers is that he cannot be placed on waiver while injured. Instead, he will be placed on the injured reserve with only a minor salary cap charge.
  • Montreal Canadiens’ free agent addition Matthew Peca is currently sidelined. The team revealed that he is dealing with a minor groin injury. No timeline has been established for his return. Peca’s NHL ability and role for the Habs is still unclear, so missing preseason action and potentially the start of the season is unfortunate. The former Tampa Bay Lightning prospect will have to hit the ground running upon his return.

Atlantic Notes: Nylander, Donato, Frk, Johnson

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Maple Leafs winger William Nylander is one of just three remaining restricted free agents and it doesn’t appear as if a deal is particularly close.  In an appearance on TSN 1050 (audio link), TSN’s Darren Dreger suggested that there haven’t been many talks as of late between Nylander’s camp and the team.  The belief remains that Toronto is hoping to lock the 22-year-old on a long-term pact somewhere in the $6MM range but Nylander is seeking more than $7MM per year to be locked up long-term.  Understandably, the Leafs are going to try to hold a hard line knowing that contracts for top youngsters Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are on the horizon for next season.

More from the Atlantic:

  • While the Bruins appear to have a pair of roster spots up front, one of them has already been taken. Head coach Bruce Cassidy told reporters, including Kevin Paul Dupont of the Boston Globe, that youngster is expected to break camp with the team.  That shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise as the 22-year-old put up nine points in a dozen games after joining the team late last season although he was a frequent scratch in the postseason.  That leaves the rest of the roster hopefuls, including veteran tryout wingers Lee Stempniak and Daniel Winnik, vying for one last position.
  • Winger Martin Frk returned to practice for the first time since straining an oblique muscle at the beginning of training camp, notes MLive’s Ansar Khan. He’s coming off of a career year after putting up 25 points in 68 games for the Red Wings last season and was eventually rewarded with a $1.05MM contract for the upcoming season but his spot on the roster isn’t exactly guaranteed with several youngsters pushing for spots.  Meanwhile, defensemen Jonathan Ericsson and Danny DeKeyser will miss at least the next two games with what head coach Jeff Blashill is calling “minor tweaks”.
  • Lightning center Tyler Johnson will miss the remainder of the preseason due to an upper-body injury, head coach Jon Cooper told reporters, including Fox Sports’ Caley Chelios (Twitter links). Fortunately for him, Tampa Bay opens their 2018-19 campaign relatively late (October 6th) so he could still be available for when the puck drops on the season.

Over The Cap: Detroit Red Wings

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Although the St. Louis Blues are dangerously close to the salary cap ceiling and the defending Stanley Cup champs of the past three years, the Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins, are within an uncomfortable distance, the Detroit Red Wings are the only team who have surpassed the NHL’s $79.5MM limit at this point in time. When the team re-signed franchise center Dylan Larkin to a five-year, $30.5MM contract last week, his $6.1MM  salary boosted Detroit’s payroll for the coming season to $82.772MM for just 21 players. The Red Wings currently sit more than $3.2MM over the salary cap with a roster that contains just six defenseman. While the NHL CBA allows teams to surpass the cap by 10% in the off-season – up to $87.45MM – the Red Wings must clear enough space to begin the season under the cap.

Once the season is underway, the salary cap is unlikely to be much of an issue. Johan Franzen, who last played in October of 2015, has been sidelined with post-concussion symptoms for the past three seasons and is almost surely not going to return to the Detroit lineup. His $3.955MM contract on the long-term injured reserve will wipe out all of the Red Wings’ cap overages. Additionally, it remains a very real possibility that captain Henrik Zetterberg may also be on the shelf this year and possibly done with his hockey career altogether, with a nagging back injury reportedly making his availability over the final two years of his contract an “unknown”.  If Zetterberg doesn’t play, his $6MM cap hit added to Franzen’s on LTIR would give the Wings more than enough space.

However, injured reserve transactions cannot be made until after the official start of the NHL season. This has previously caused teams to trade away players unlikely to ever play again due to health, with the Chicago Blackhawks’ Marian Hossa as the latest example, even though their cap hits can be absorbed. A team tight against the cap, like Detroit, may struggle to manipulate their roster enough to fit those injured players under the cap on day one. As such, the easiest way that the team could get under the cap prior to the start of the season would be to find a taker for Franzen’s contract. The Wings would have to part with a pick or prospect, but may be able to unload the deal to a team far from the cap ceiling. If Detroit is certain that Zetterberg is also done, they could do the same with his contract, although a higher cap hit means parting with greater trade capital.

Barring an injured player salary dump, the Red Wings are likely left with the reality that they must trade a roster player in the next two months. The team may be able to sneak players like Martin Frk and Luke Witkowski through waivers before the season begins, but it would not result in enough savings to make a difference. Detroit would be unlikely to expose anyone else to waivers simply to clear space briefly. As such, it appears as if someone must go. While Red Wings fans and leadership alike might like the idea of shipping an aging defenseman like Niklas Kronwall or Jonathan Ericsson away or trying to sweet talk some team into taking on the behemoth contract of Frans Nielsen or Justin Abdelkader, it would be a surprise to see any team with interest in that foursome. The likes of Danny DeKeyser and Trevor Daley may also be immovable for a team rife with poor contracts. Instead, impending free agent Gustav Nyquist or two-way center Darren Helm are the most likely candidates, while a player like Luke Glendening heading elsewhere paired with some clever waiver action could do the trick. There is also a chance that, if he proves to be healthy, some team might be interested in Zetterberg.

It’s never a great situation for a team to be forced into trading away assets simply to become cap compliant for one day, but trading away an older player would nevertheless be a step in the right direction for a team that has never truly embraced a rebuild. Opening up salary with a trade, as well as an LTIR placement for Franzen, would allow the Red Wings some flexibility to test out some young players this season while building around their established young core, headlined by Larkin. The salary cap crunch could prove to be their ally long-term, but in the short-term the team is left with little option but to make a move and hope for the best.

Detroit On Top Of NHL In No-Trade Clauses

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No trade clauses seem to have become the “in-thing” in negotiations as NTC’s are more prevalent than ever. Many general managers are forced to offer them to entice free agents to come to their teams. Other teams just give them to their top players to prove their loyalty to that player. For instance, the Tampa Bay Lightning have eight no-trade clauses on their roster, but that’s normal for a team that is expected to contend for a Stanley Cup.

However, what about the Detroit Red Wings. The struggling franchise is tied with Ottawa for a league-high 10 no-trade clauses on their roster for a team that’s already capped out with nothing to show for it but a roster of aging, overpriced veterans. The best option for Detroit and general manager Ken Holland, who handed out those no-trade clauses would be to trade off their veterans and start a massive rebuild. Can’t do that, according to Yahoo Sports Greg Wyshynski, who writes that Detroit is in a tough situation compared to other teams. One key to the way general managers use no-trade clauses is how they are utilized and with all of their no-trade clauses, the team will be hamstrung for many years.

Holland and the Red Wings have given full no-trade clauses to Justin Abdelkader, who has three more years of a no-trade clause before it becomes a modified trade clause, but the 30-year-old is locked up for another six years. Gustav Nyquist has a full no-trade clause for the two years remaining on his contract. Darren Helm also has a full no-trade clause through next season, although that can be voided beyond that if he fails to be among the team’s top-nine forwards or if the team doesn’t make the playoffs. However, again, he has a four-year deal. Four defensemen have full no-trade clauses, including Mike Green, Danny DeKeyser, Jonathan Ericsson and newly signed Trevor Daley. Other than Green, all of them possess full no-trade clauses for the next year, but eventually turn into modified no-trade clauses in 2018-19 or later. To make matters even more difficult, Detroit also has three players with modified no-trade clauses, including Frans Nielsen, Niklas Kronwall and goaltender Jimmy Howard, that will only make a rebuild more challenging for the Red Wings.

Perhaps the biggest problem, according to Wyshynski, is that seven of the 10 no-trade clauses are in the hands of players that are 30 or older and whether there was a need to give one this offseason to Daley, who many viewed as a questionable acquisition in the first place, let alone that they gave him a two years worth of a full no-trade clause to go with his three-year, $9.5MM contract at age 33.

While some no trade clauses are unavoidable and even necessary to get a player to sign on the dotted line, it’s critical to know when to offer one and when not to. Wyshynski uses the Minnesota Wild as an example of a team who has six no-trade clauses on their roster and used them wisely. They handed ones out to Zach Parise, Mikko Koivu and Ryan Suter, where they were critical in negotiations and are franchise-type players. They used one on veteran Eric Staal to convince him to come to Minnesota last year, which worked out quite well. Finally, defenseman Jared Spurgeon and goaltender Devan Dubnyk each received modified no-trade clauses, but again, both are key pieces to the team’s success. That’s how it should be done.

The question is, how long will it take for Detroit to recover from these long-term contracts with all these no-trade clauses in place. Of course, after the Daley deal, it doesn’t necessarily mean that Detroit has learned from its mistakes anyway.

Detroit’s Contract Pitfalls

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Detroit is currently dealing with one of the more contentious RFA negotiations in recent memory, as Tomas Tatar has refused a multi-year deal and is not happy with the franchise’s perception of him. The team also needs to negotiate a new contract for Andreas Athanasiou, a speedy center with flashy hands and a lot of upside. The major problem, however, is the cap space with which GM Ken Holland has to operate.

Detroit’s perilous situation is bizarre primarily because it has been largely self-inflicted, and unnecessarily so. The team already has an under-performing and vastly overpaid defensive group, but decided to bring in declining veteran Trevor Daley to a $3.17 MM, three-year deal. This places the team with $2.28 MM left in cap space while still needing to lock up Athanasiou and Tatar. It should be noted that 37 year-old Johan Franzen has been on long-term injured reserve since 2015, so they should be able to allocate his $3.95 MM salary to that reserve upon resumption of the season. Considering the apparently lax interpretation of the off-season rules, this effectively allows Holland $6.23 MM left to sign his two players. Theoretically, it could be enough, but in reality money will need to move out.

Tatar turned down a 5-year deal worth $5 MM per season, according to Michigan Live’s Ansar Khan. If that AAV isn’t enough, which it appears not to be, Holland is in a bit of a bind. Tatar was their only player to break 20 goals (25), and finished third on the team in points behind only Henrik Zetterberg and Gustav Nyquist. His offensive capabilities are pretty essential to a team hurting so badly for consistent production. Tatar wants his $6 MM, and there’s a good chance he’ll get it. Holland could try to deal Tatar before his arbitration date, but the return might not be as productive as Holland would like. If the parties do go to arbitration, Tatar will only need to sign for one season, which would almost assure his eventual departure.

Athanasiou will come cheaper and likely on a shorter term. If Holland can secure the player for under $2 MM, it would be a boon. The wiser move would be to try to extend the player on a longer deal in hopes that he becomes a bargain in the near future. Unfortunately, with the Tatar situation taking precedence, it seems an unlikely scenario. Even still, his measly $2 MM would put the Wings over the cap ceiling, even with Franzen on LTIR. So who would be on the outs?

Petr Mrazek was almost lost to the Vegas Golden Knights through the expansion draft, and with Jared Coreau playing stellar in the Grand Rapids, he seems the most likely candidate to move. He only costs $4 MM and after his down season, Holland would like to give Jimmy Howard the reigns back. Unfortunately, the Mrazek “attitude” rumors may have lessened his trade value. Perhaps even more importantly, the goaltending carousel has ground to a halt, with essentially every team securing a starter for the coming year.

Justin Abdelkader is on a really poor contract, complete with a no-trade clause, worth $4.25 MM AAV for the next six seasons. After a seven goal season, however, there won’t be many teams chomping at the bit for his services. Darren Helm didn’t fare much better offensively, but with a $3.85 MM contract and only four years on his deal, he’s not entirely unmovable. Again, he has a no-trade clause to complicate matters. There are the defensemen, such as Jonathan Ericsson, but with three years left and already declining at 33, he would also net little in return. Luke Glendening is an interesting option, as he is the cheapest of this group. Despite his two-way prowess, a forward with 3 goals in a season, even at a mere $1.8 MM, will still be a tough sell.

Ultimately, the Wings have overpaid a number of players and the contracts are for far too long. The amount of no-trade clauses handed out is an absurd hindrance when a team is trying to rebuild or retool. With 8 players on the roster with some sort of movement-limiting clause, Holland has few options to give himself relief. The worst case scenario would be to lose Tatar, but the team has truly painted itself into a corner regardless of who is shipped out. With an aging defense and an uninspiring offense, the Wings’ return to relevance will only be delayed from here on in.

PHR Mailbag: Duchene, Kessel, Hurricanes, Bruins

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We’ve been taking your off-season inquiries over the weekend in the comments and using #PHRMailbag on Twitter. Here are some questions and answers to ponder:

Conorsoxfan: Is Matt Duchene still going to be moved? What about Landeskog? Are the Avs waiting for the right offer or are they holding on to all their assets for now?

We received several questions about Matt Duchene and for good reason. The Avalanche have been speaking with teams since the Trade Deadline about moving the talented forward and Duchene himself is on record as saying that he is open to a move, but months later he is still in Colorado. It seems that GM Joe Sakic has a very specific (and lofty) return in mind and is hesitant to move Duchene without getting exactly what he wants. That return certainly includes a young, proven defenseman, which is not exactly a commodity that most teams are eager to move. The Columbus Blue Jackets and Carolina Hurricanes seem like they have the best chance of meeting Sakic’s demands, as both teams are loaded with young, NHL-ready defenseman. However, the rumor that Colorado rejected a deal for Travis Hamonic that included Duchene makes you wonder if Sakic is searching for a caliber of player that is simply unavailable. It would be best for Duchene, the Avs, and the rest of the NHL trade market if a deal would get done sooner rather than later, but don’t be surprised if Duchene is still a talking point at the next Trade Deadline.

As for Gabriel Landeskog, rumors of his deaparture have definitely been on the back burner this summer after he too was hot topic at the Trade Deadline. Although the Avalanche are coming off a historically bad season, they seem to be playing it safe with their rebuild. They have not sold off all of their veteran pieces, nor have they operated like a team that’s pushing for a playoff spot. Their only major additions this season are a backup goaltender, Jonathan Bernier, and a low risk-high reward gamble, Nail Yakupov. They got potentially the best player in the draft at #4 overall in defenseman Cale Makar, but he is at least two seasons away from seeing NHL ice time. It seems that Sakic is content with keeping his roster intact and slowly adding in younger players and moving out older pieces. That type of status quo strategy would seem to indicate that Colorado isn’t keen on losing its captain unless the return could truly change the course of the franchise. Especially if Duchene does end up traded, don’t expect Landeskog to follow. He’s likely to remain in Colorado for the time being.

@Wings16Canes13: When and will Pittsburgh trade Kessel? Or does another coach have to go first?

It always seems like there’s some controversy surrounding Phil Kessel. This question alludes to rumors coming out of Pittsburgh that the uber-talented winger and head coach Mike Sullivan don’t see eye-to-eye on many things. Moreover, it’s been said that assistant Rick Tocchet acted as go-between for the two these past two seasons, and with Tocchet likely headed to Arizona as the head coach of the Coyotes, the relationship between Kessel and Sullivan could get worse. However, the Pittsburgh Penguins are also back-to-back Stanley Cup champs, with both Kessel and Sullivan playing major roles in each title. Neither is likely to be on the move any time soon, especially not because they dislike each other. It may not be the most comfortable locker room, but the two will learn to live with each other and any struggles for the Penguins in 2017-18 will be attributed to Stanley Cup hangover, not a feuding coach and player. With that said, Kessel has a $6.8MM cap hit for five more years, which could cause cap trouble down the road for the Penguins, while the team has also shown a willingness to move on from head coaches after just a down season or two. Both Kessel and Sullivan could be gone in a few years, but it’s impossible to know which first and when, only that it’s highly unlikely to be this year.

mikedickinson: Hurricanes are loaded on defense and have three kids who can play in the AHL as well. They aren’t trading any of their top 4. Can they trade from their strength to address a weakness (center)? Also, JVR to Raleigh to play with his brother?

The Carolina Hurricanes boast one of the youngest, deepest, and most talented defensive corps in the entire league. All-Star Justin Faulk leads a group that includes 2015 #5 pick Noah Hanifin, 2012 fourth-rounder Jaccob Slavin, 2013 third-rounder Brett Pesce, 2014 #7 pick Haydn Fleury, 2014 second-rounder Roland McKeown, and now the recently-acquired Trevor van Riemsdyk, not to mention dependable depth defender Klas Dahlbeck and 2016-17 AHL surprise Jake Chelios. There’s also 2016 first-rounder Jake Bean to consider as well, though he remains in juniors. That group has one thing in common: none of them are more than 26 years old. When the Hurricanes acquired van Riemsdyk from the Vegas Golden Knights last month, many felt that the move indicated that Faulk, the team’s top right-shot defenseman, would be on the move. After all, the team has been linked to Matt Duchene as well as others as they try to bring their forward depth up to the same level as their defense. However, GM Ron Francis has stated since that he wants to keep his starters together. It also seems unlikely that he’s keen to move talented teenager Bean, leaving promising, but slowly developing players like Fleury, McKeown, and Chelios as his top trade chips from the blue line. None of those players will get a Duchene or similar-caliber player, but don’t be surprised if the ’Canes use them to add some depth forwards this off-season or along the way next season. If Francis is posturing, then yes any of Faulk, Hanafin, Slavin, or Pesce could be used to bring in a big fish.

As for James van Riemsdyk, it is an interesting development to have his brother in Carolina, an up-and-coming team (like the Maple Leafs) that’s in need of an impact forward. JVR is entering the final year of his contract and it seems unlikely that Toronto will re-sign him, considering the expensive extensions coming down the line for Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander. The question then becomes whether or not the Leafs are interested in moving him this off-season and whether the Hurricanes are willing to pay the price for his services this year when they can sign him next summer for free. If the Leafs look to deal him, Fleury or McKeown as the centerpieces likely won’t cut it. The Leafs are on the hunt for a top-pair right-shot to pair with Morgan Rielly and Faulk certainly fits the bill, but that’s a high price to pay for an impending free agent. I think you’re on to something with JVR and TVR teaming up in Carolina, but I think it could come at a lower price toward the Trade Deadline or via free agency next off-season.

mpfallon: Will the bruins make some big offseason moves?

This depends on your definition of “big”. Despite rumors that the Bruins have been looking into acquiring a top-four left-handed defenseman and a top-six winger, GM Don Sweeney has also made it clear that he doesn’t want to acquire players that will block Boston’s talented young prospects. College star Anders Bjork, 2015 first-rounder Jake DeBrusk, Peter Cehlarik, who got a taste of the NHL last year, and possibly even Danton Heinen and Jesse Gabrielle will all compete with Frank Vatrano, Matt Beleskey, and recent signing Kenny Agostino for a top-nine spot on the left side, and Ryan Spooner could join the mix if the B’s prefer rookie Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson at third line center. The left wing battle could spill over to the right side as well, where top forward prospect Zach Senyshyn will also look to make the team. On the blue line, Rob O’Gara, Jakub Zboril, and Jeremy Lauzon will all fight for the final spot on the left side, and the recent signing of Paul Postma could indicate that the team is okay with moving Kevan Miller to the left side to free up a spot for Adam McQuaid to continue to be a starter with Postma as the seventh man.

There is more than enough depth in Boston that the Bruins may make no moves for the rest of the off-season. Odds are that they do something, but likely not anything “big”. A trade for a left-shot defenseman, possibly a Nick Holden or Jonathan Ericsson, or the signing of a stopgap winger, like Drew Stafford, Thomas Vanek, or Alex Chiasson seems possible, but anything bigger could be a long shot. So the short answer to your question is no, they won’t make “big off-season moves”. They could make a small, but significant move or two, but chances are a big trade would come closer to the Trade Deadline after they give the kids a shot first.

Expansion Primer: Detroit Red Wings

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We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, coming up next week: which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

Missing the playoffs for only the first time in 25 years, the Detroit Red Wings plan on rebuilding but still keeping the playoffs in their sights. Detroit is in an interesting situation as they hold a slew of draft picks, and a number of contracts they could expose, giving some relief if one is taken.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist, Tomas Tatar (RFA), Justin Abdelkader, Darren Helm, Riley Sheahan, Luke Glendening, Anthony Mantha, Andreas Athanasiou (RFA), Frans Nielsen (NMC),

Defensemen:

Mike Green, Jonathan Ericsson, Danny DeKeyser, Niklas Kronwall, Nick Jensen, Xavier Ouellet (RFA).

Goaltender:

Jimmy Howard, Petr Mrazek, Jared Coreau

Notable Exemptions

Dylan Larkin, Johan Franzen.

Key Decisions

One of the chief reasons the Red Wings have lost their footing as a contender is not only a lack of high draft picks, but some disastrous decisions when it came to handing out contracts. Though I have written about this before, it bears repeating that under general manager Ken Holland, the Red Wings will always be loyal and choose to, as Holland always says, “draft and develop” before looking elsewhere for help. This is a key point to keep in mind as decisions are to be made. One of the biggest knocks on Holland is that he falls in love with his players–especially those he drafted.

One of the simplest ways Detroit could get salary cap room would be by protecting those who are absolutely necessary and allowing several high priced players to be exposed. Holland stipulated that he will be going with the 7-3-1 format when it comes to keeping players, and that will allow for some higher priced players to be exposed. Additionally, Holland has made it clear he will not part with draft picks in order to move contracts. Options, then, are aplenty.

Henrik Zetterberg will be protected because of his role as captain, and the all but guaranteed moment of his number hanging from the rafters. Barring some sort of crazy change, Zetterberg will be protected.

Feb 12, 2017; Saint Paul, MN, USA; Detroit Red Wings forward Riley Sheahan (15) during a game between the Minnesota Wild and Detroit Red Wings at Xcel Energy Center. The Wild defeated the Red Wings 6-3. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Riley Sheahan is a curious case. Sheahan struggled mightily, scoring two goals all season, both coming in the final game of the year. Still young and only a $2M cap hit, he could be snapped up. Sheahan has to be due for a bounce back, and with a hodgepodge of new talent and a fresh start in Vegas, it could be a boon for him professionally.  It’s a risk the Wings have to look at, being that the bounce back could also occur in Hockeytown.

Abdelkader is also an interesting case. He is owed a lot of money ($4.25MM AAV) through 2023, and hasn’t produced to justify the expense. But this is where Holland’s loyalty comes in. It’s highly unlikely Vegas would take him at that hit for the next six years while the Red Wings are believed to be grooming Abdelkader as the next captain of the team. Expect Abdelkader to be on the protected list. But rolling the dice and putting Abdelkader out there would not only allow them to hold onto a cheaper player who seems prone for a bounce back, but also provides the chance of getting significant cap relief should Abdelkader be selected.

Darren Helm and Luke Glendening at this point are role players who both hold higher cap hits ($3.85MM and $1.8MM respectively). Helm has traditionally been a third line center while Glendening spends the majority of his time on the fourth. They should both be exposed.

Finally, a quirk in CBA wording made Anthony Mantha eligible for the expansion draft. Holland will have no choice but to include him on the list. Detroit blog Winging It In Motown did a great job of breaking down the verbiage in the CBA that makes Mantha eligible.

Projected Protection List

F – Henrik Zetterberg
F – Anthony Mantha
F – Andreas Athanasiou
F – Frans Nielsen (NMC)
F – Justin Abdelkader
F – Tomas Tatar
F – Gustav Nyquist

D – Mike Green
D – Xavier Ouellet
D – Danny DeKeyser

G – Petr Mrazek

The goalie situation is another precarious case for the Wings, as Mrazek, who was anointed the starter last year, struggled to gain form and saw Howard take over the top spot until injury caught up with him. Coreau just backstopped the Grand Rapids Griffins to a Calder Cup trophy and comes very cheap as  an NHL backup, especially with little NHL experience to his name. The choice here would have to be Mrazek, as Howard has only a couple years left and can rarely stay healthy enough to maintain a #1 job. Youth and Mrazek’s potential are reasons to protect him. The Czech netminder has flashes of brilliance and should Detroit restock with a stalwart defense and supportive scoring, it’s not out of the question that Mrazek could be one of the best in the league.

Oct 30, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Red Wings goalie Petr Mrazek (34) is pulled out and replaced by goalie Jimmy Howard (35) during the second period against Florida Panthers at Joe Louis Arena. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

On defense, the Wings will protect both Green and DeKeyser, the latter who they re-signed to a large deal that was panned by many, especially after DeKeyser sputtered last season. Still relatively young at 27, the Wings are trying to find a #1 or 2 defenseman that would ease the pressure on DeKeyser. The real question comes in at who to protect after that. The loyalty piece of Holland could put Kronwall on the list of protected because of his time in Detroit. The 36-year-old defenseman has been lauded for his leadership abilities as well. But that leaves a number of young talent exposed, namely Ouellet, and Jensen. The better bet is that Kronwall will be exposed, and the Wings will protect Ouellet over Jensen. Their numbers were similar this season, but Ouellet, just about three years younger than Jensen, seems the smarter choice to place on the protected list. It is highly unlikely that Kronwall will be taken, being that he experienced a major dip in play last season due to a nagging knee injury. His mobility and skating ability isn’t close to what it once was.

The takeaway with the Red Wings is that they are truly a team in transition. Their building blocks for nearly a decade are aging, they have question marks in net, and defensively, there is no clear cut number one or number two defensemen.  While they don’t have a lot to lose in terms of talent, Holland will most likely defer to youth rather than loyalty when making his final choices.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Ken Holland And The Red Wings Rebuild

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Two postseasons ago before he left Hockeytown for hockey’s Mecca in Toronto, head coach Mike Babcock made a blunt assessment of the Red Wings’ future following a bitter 2-0 loss in Game 7 against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Babcock said this:

“Our team is not as good as it was. It’s very evident. We battled our butt off just to get in the playoffs. You are what you are. [Tampa Bay] had a young team that have been around long enough to rebuild it. They’ve got young players at key positions. Three of our best players are 34, 35, 37. Any way you look at it, we’re a team that has changed a ton of players and added a lot of youth to our lineup, but nobody on the outside picked us to be a Stanley Cup contender.”

Missing the playoffs for the first time in a quarter century didn’t come as a surprise to many in Detroit. And while Babcock has his Maple Leafs on an accelerated path for what was supposed to be a “painful” rebuild, the Red Wings find themselves older, injured, and looking on the outside of the playoffs for the first time since Steve Yzerman wore the C.

Those in Detroit hoping for a Toronto-like teardown might be disappointed, however, as general manager Ken Holland believes his team needs a few tweaks to compete again. Though this is admirable for a general manager to fight for his team, it doesn’t seem all that reasonable as the Red Wings struggled to score goals, had major players regress, and find themselves financially strapped with several long term, high priced contracts. Curiously, senior vice president Jimmy Devellano was quoted as saying “the rebuild is on” which spoke opposite to what the general manager of the club said.

Dec 3, 2016; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Detroit Red Wings left wing <a rel=Holland, who spoke with Toronto’s Fan 590 and also the Hockey News’ Ken Campbell, made it abundantly clear that he is not in it for a tear down. With only a year remaining on his contract, Holland may not view it as viable when success in Detroit is measured with Stanley Cups and playoff appearances. But the fact of the matter is that the Red Wings have been sputtering for some time. Specifically:

  • Since the retirement of Nicklas Lidstrom, the Red Wings only advanced once beyond the first round. The surprising run in 2013 that saw them squeak into the playoffs and nearly upend eventual champion Chicago seemed more of a red herring than truth when it came to the ability level of the team.
  • Elite free agents have avoided Detroit, and those who have signed were nearing the end of their career, like Daniel Alfredsson or Brad Richards. Others, like Stephen Weiss or the second go around with Mikael Samuelsson were massive miscalculations that did little to help the team and in many ways, hindered the progress of younger players.
  • Holland, who was the undisputed king of trades before the salary cap, has appeared gun shy to make moves via trade. Instead, he’s been loyal, re-signing the likes of Justin Abdelkader, Darren Helm, Danny DeKeyser, and Jonathan Ericsson to long, expensive deals while seeing little in the way of return. Holland told Campbell that while he’ll work the phones to try and improve the team, other GMs may not “like our players or contracts.” Ironically, many of those contracts they wouldn’t like were offered to current Red Wings by Holland.

The USA Today’s Kevin Allen offered his own take and believes Detroit must rely on youth, and realize that their brand is “stale.” Allen is a non-partisan national writer without any bias to the Wings. If a pair of eyes outside the organization can see this, Holland may want to consider it.

A rebuild provides a chance to change the image of the Detroit Red Wings, which is now one without stars, on the decline, and appears resistant to change. Reading what Holland says now is nearly identical to what he’s said in the past, when the Red Wings were already showing signs of sinking.

Babcock foretold a fall for the Red Wings. Holland has a chance to change course and put the team back on an upward trajectory. But it goes beyond signing older veterans and current players in moving the Wings beyond a fringe playoff team and back into the status of contenders.

Snapshots: Ericsson, Canadiens, Oilers

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After leaving Thursday night’s game with an upper-body injury, Red Wings defenseman Jonathan Ericsson will undergo surgery next week and will be out for the next 12 weeks, effectively ending his season, GM Ken Holland told MLive’s Brendan Savage (Twitter link).  Originally, the team was hopeful he’d only miss six-to-eight weeks.

Ericsson was injured after an awkward hit by Washington’s Nicklas Backstrom (video link). Backstrom hit Ericsson into the boards as the defenseman was skating towards the boards behind his own net.

He has nine points in 50 games this season, while averaging 19:29 minutes a night on Detroit’s second pairing. This is the third year of Ericsson’s six-year, $25.5MM contract.

  • The Montreal Canadiens have a short window to win the Stanley Cup with their current roster. Superstar goaltender Carey Price has one more year left at $6.5MM and captain Max Pacioretty has two years left at a steal of $4.5MM. That combined $11MM will likely jump to $17MM or so, which will cause quite the cap crunch. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman has suggested that GM Marc Bergevin “has got his fingers in everything” (transcribed by Chris Nichols of FanRagSports). On Toronto radio this morning, Friedman shared an anecdote from Bergevin’s time in Chicago, where the Blackhawks had a chance to trade for Chris Pronger in the summer of 2006 but passed on making the deal because they “weren’t ready [to contend].” As Friedman put it, Bergevin’s philosophy is to hit singles to build a team, then swing for the fences when his team has a chance to win. Following this philosophy, Friedman suggested that “if there’s a big name, you can assume that Montreal has inquired.”
  • Speaking of windows of contention, Jonathan Willis wrote a piece for Sportsnet arguing that the Edmonton Oilers need to be a legitimate Stanley Cup contender by next season to follow the paths set out by Chicago and Pittsburgh. This means a deep playoff run while Connor McDavid is still on his entry-level contract. No team has a smooth ride to the top, Willis writes, pointing at Chicago and Boston’s struggles to keep their teams together as their stars take up more money. If the Oilers aren’t a serious contender in 2017-18, then “they may be too far behind Pittsburgh and Chicago to catch up” to their path to the Cup.

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