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Cap Problems Loom – A Look Ahead For Chicago

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The Chicago Blackhawks’ management will have to take a deep, long look in the mirror this off-season. Their core is locked up and in their primes. With an offense boasting Artemi Panarin, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, grizzled Marian Hossa, and a resurgent Artem Anisimov, there were many predictions around the league for Chicago to reclaim another cup. Instead, the comparatively deep lineup Nashville iced completely dominated Chicago, sending them packing in a 4 game sweep – the first ever time an “8th seed” has swept a “1 seed”.

This is an analysis of Chicago’s cap frustrations, and what has led to them.

Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane each account for $10.5 MM towards the team cap, and are both under contract until the 2022-23 season. With a cap ceiling that is expected to remain in the ballpark of its current $73 MM, this is a massive $21 MM, 28.8% of the team total. In past seasons, contributions from players on ELCs and cheap one-to-two year deals made this issue far less concerning. Success will do a lot to mask poor planning on management’s part.

Looking at their roster situation next year, the squad looks something like this (numbers represent $MM towards cap):

Nick Schmaltz (0.925) – Jonathan Toews (10.5) – Marian Hossa (5.275)

Artemi Panarin (6.0) – Artem Anisimov (4.550) – Patrick Kane (10.5)

Dennis Rasmussen (RFA) – Marcus Kruger (3.083) – Richard Panik (RFA)

Ryan Hartman (0.863) – Tanner Kero (0.750) – __________

*******

 

Nik Hjalmarsson (4.1) – Duncan Keith (5.538)

Brent Seabrook (6.875) – Trevor van Riemsdyk (0.825)

Michal Kempny (RFA) – Gustav Forsling (0.873)

************

Michal Roszival (0.650)

 

Corey Crawford (6.0)

_________

 

A few things to note: there are still 4 likely vacancies on this roster, and the team would probably prefer to have at least one more extra skater on hand for the season. Before the RFA contracts are negotiated, this comes to a total of $67.307 MM already spent. Brian Campbell and Johnny Oduya are not likely to return, considering the former’s price and the latter’s struggles. Roszival is not likely to be trusted with 7th defenseman duties. With Panik’s stellar season, he is nearly sure to command a sizable raise. The 26 year-old had what can only be described an incredibly over-achieving breakthrough – he notched 44 points, 22 of which were goals. The expectation should be that, even under team-friendly RFA negotiations, he will earn upwards of $2 MM, likely in the $2.5 MM range. Assuming the other two RFAs (Rasmussen and Kempny) receive somewhere around $1 MM each, this brings the grand total to $71.807 MM with at least 3 slots to fill, probably 4.

From here, Chicago could go one of two routes. They could try to fill out the remaining spots with the absolutely cheapest possible players, and hope they strike gold with another prospect or free agent. They went down this road last year, and one could reasonably assume they may not have liked the results. The other option would be to move a sizable contract out in the name of increased depth. A few options would be Seabrook or Hjalmarrson on the back-end, or perhaps Hossa up front. Although the captain’s relative cost efficiency is arguably not good, I don’t see a scenario where the Windy City management would be willing to move on from Toews. Anisimov’s play and chemistry with Kane at a cheap 2C price-tag make him unlikely to be moved, and Kruger was just signed to a cost-efficient deal.

It should be noted that if Chicago would be (for whatever reason) unable to move a contract, they could opt to leave a player unprotected for Vegas to take. This is not a likely scenario, however. Many believe that van Riemsdyk will be left unprotected, but exposing such a cheap and effective youngster seems counter-productive at this point. The problem with ditching Seabrook or Hjalmarrson is that it opens up a huge hole that is not likely to be filled much cheaper – top 4 defensemen don’t come cheap, especially considering this year’s limited UFA class. Hossa, it should be noted, has a No Movement Clause, which would severely complicate any sort of transaction involving the veteran winger.

Decisions lie aheaad for Chicago management, and the decisions may be even tougher than they were after their Cup win in 2010. That off-season, they were forced into moving Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd, and Kris Versteeg. Those tough decisions laid the groundwork for their next two titles. This is the cost of success in the post-cap era, and Chicago will again need to make sacrifices if they wish to see any more.

Roster Notes: Haula, Lazar, Oduya

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Lineup changes have arrived for the Flames according to Kristen Odland, as the team will attempt to ward off elimination. Matt Stajan and Lance Bouma have both been told to take the night off, as Curtis Lazar and Freddie Hamilton find their way back to the ice. Hamilton had 2 goals and 0 assists in his 26 regular season games, and Lazar had 1 goal and 3 assists in his 37 games played. Neither is obviously expected to provide stellar offense, but instead to spark energy and infuse youth into a lineup which looked gassed in their Game 3 three-goal lead implosion. Lazar had been held pointless in 6 games while dressed for the Senators in the playoffs two seasons ago, though he was fantastic for the Oil Kings in their Memorial Cup run the year prior. This will be Hamilton’s first playoff experience.

  • Blackhawks’ Johnny Oduya has been yanked from the lineup by coach Joel Quenneville for a potentially deciding Game 4. Michal Kempny is expected to take his place. The 26 year-old Czech defenseman had a phenomenally underappreciated season, posting an absurd 56.1% Corsi For. The left-handed shooting defenseman has never played in a playoff game. He had gone unsigned until May of last year, when he was acquired by the organization for depth. He ended up playing 50 games for the Hawks, despite marginal offensive totals. Oduya’s veteran status makes this a surprising move, although his lack of speed and age were starting to show in a series where the Predators’ forecheck was relentless.
  • Erik Haula will not play for the Minnesota Wild tonight in their game against the Blues. Haula was held pointless and registered a -2 through 3 games. Coach Bruce Boudreau did not confirm who would take his spot, as he had been playing on the top unit with Mikko Koivu. This is a surprising move despite his struggles in the series, as the forward had been producing at a decent clip before running into the red-hot Jake Allen. There has been no word as to who will replace his position on the left wing.

Predator Power: The Potential Upset That Should Shock No One

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Just yesterday, I wrote an article describing the ability of the Wild to come back in their series down 0-2. No one should doubt that the Blackhawks are entirely capable of achieving the same against the Predators. The question is whether they will.

The Predators were perhaps the most overlooked team this post-season, with nearly all analysts picking the Blackhawks to take the series rather easily. This is particularly odd because offensively, the teams were practically indistinguishable (at 2.43 GF60 and 2.42 GF60 respectively). At 5 on 5, the Predators only scored 5 less goals all season long. Down the home stretch of the season, the Predators won their last 4 while the Blackhawks went winless. Although both teams have had an increase in overall offense compared to last season, Nashville had less of a drastic up-hike, suggesting less deviation from the expected output. The Predators are also far less top heavy than the Hawks – their scoring is more evenly stretched out across their lineup and not concentrated around four particular players. The Hawks’ fourth line is noteworthy in how uninspiring it is –  Jordin Tootoo and John Hayden usually average 8 and 11 minutes a piece. Finally, Pekka Rinne had a historically bad season by his standards in 2015-16 (in which the Predators took the Western Conference champs to a Game 7) – but he has returned to form in a big way this season, with a respectable (if unremarkable) .918 save percentage.

Then there’s the defense – the Blackhawks have shown signs of weakness. Duncan Keith had a solid showing, but not his Norris standard. His Corsi For was his worst since his rookie season at 50.7%  – he has trended around 54%. Niklas Hjalmarsson and Brent Seabrook have also had down seasons, Seabrook at 50%, and Hjalmarsson at 45%. After these three defenders there is a massive gap in talent. Part of the reason that these top three are having a difficult time is because they have had to log massive amounts of minutes against top players. Both Johnny Oduya and Brian Campbell have struggled to log the minutes of years past, and both have faced lower quality of competition. Each has averaged around 18 minutes of ice and it doesn’t seem like Joel Quenneville is particularly confident in putting them out there in all situations these playoffs. Trevor van Reimsdyk has performed admirably in his role, but has yet to be a positive player in a post-season year.  Even against Keith, the speed of the Predators’ forwards has created fits and frantic backpedaling. With how dominant Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi and crew have looked, it is more than fair to draw comparisons.

Ultimately, the Blackhawks need to score in order to advance. Peter Laviolette has the Predators rolling as a fine-tuned forecheck machine, and Chicago seems to have been shell-shocked. Their zone time in the most recent game was frankly horrible. The 5-0 obliteration was a natural continuation of the frustrated offense the Hawks experienced in the first game, and it seems apparent that whatever game-planning occurred between the two matches fell far short of the mark. Shots were constantly blocked by the Preds and the ones that got through were not dangerous. The amount of hype that preceded Chicago headed into these playoffs was largely unwarranted – they didn’t dominate any advanced stat and only won the division by a slight margin, while their top players looked far less dynamic than the previous year. But let us not discount the effort and depth of the Predators. On paper, this isn’t a roster that is star-studded or wonderfully exciting, but they have been constructed well for playoff hockey and now have the experience to close a series. Their third line has performed well above expectations and their top guns are firing away. Underestimating this squad would be a deadly error for any team, no matter how many cups they’ve won in years past.

Dallas Stars Sign Gavin Bayreuther

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Late last night, the Dallas Stars announced that they had won out in their battle with the Buffalo Sabres for the right to sign Gavin Bayreuther. The St. Lawrence University defenseman was a free agent and was considering the two teams up until yesterday. The two sides have come to an agreement and will release details today.

Bayreuther was considered one of the top free agents available from the college ranks this year, and for good reason. The 22-year old defenseman has put up 29 points in two straight seasons and generally been a dominant presence on the St. Lawrence blue line for all four years. He’ll go down as the second highest scoring defenseman in school history, behind only Daniel Laperriere, a former St. Louis Blues draft pick and NHL player.

The 6’1″, 195-lbs Bayreuther has much of what any NHL team would be looking for in a defensive prospect; great first pass, solid decision making, hard shot from the point. It’s mostly his positioning and one-on-one battles that need work, and will be challenged at the next level. With some solid professional coaching, he could turn into a nice all-around defenseman.

For the Stars, adding another prospect to their defensive pool can’t hurt as they look to rebuild what has been a shattered blue line. The team has watched Alex Goligoski, Jason Demers, Kris Russell, Johnny Oduya, Jordie Benn, Jyrki Jokipakka and Trevor Daley all leave one way or another over the past couple of years, leaving them with a makeshift lineup behind the stalwart John Klingberg. Now with the youth of Bayreuther, Stephen Johns, Esa Lindell, Julius Honka, Patrik Nemeth and Dillon Heatherington they’ll be able to fill that pipeline once again.

While this signing doesn’t fix everything there is wrong with the Stars—as no one signing would—it does take another step in the right direction for a team that was in first place as recently as last year. We’ll now see how active they are heading into the expansion draft, where they will have several key decisions to make.

Central Notes: Lehtonen, Blackhawks, MacKinnon

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With the Stars struggling and the fact they have the highest paid goaltending tandem in the league, it’s quite possible that netminder Kari Lehtonen could be on another team next season either from a trade or even a potential buyout.  He admitted to Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News that the thought of where he may wind up next season has crossed his mind:

“It’s hard sometimes not to think about it, but you have a job to do. It’s part of this sport, and you do best when you concentrate on controlling what you can control.”

Although Lehtonen has the better numbers between himself and Antti Niemi this season, he also has the more expensive cap hit at $5.9MM which could make him the more likely candidate to not return.  If the Stars were to buy him out, he’d cost them a cap hit of $2.57MM in 2017-18 and $1.67MM in 2018-19; the higher amount next year coming from the fact his deal is slightly front loaded.  (For comparison, a buyout of Niemi’s $4.5MM cap hit would be an even $1.5MM for the next two years.)

More from the Central:

  • The back end for the Blackhawks will get a boost tomorrow night against Anaheim. Chris Hine of the Chicago Tribune reports that Niklas Hjalmarsson will return to the lineup after missing the last four games with an upper body injury.  The recently re-acquired Johnny Oduya will also suit up for Chicago in what will be his first game in his second stint with the team.  There’s a good chance that Michal Kempny and Michal Rozsival will cede their spots on the blueline and be healthy scratches.
  • Terry Frei of the Denver Post suggests that GM Joe Sakic would be wise to at least listen to any overtures other teams might have regarding center Nathan MacKinnon this offseason even though just last month he declared the 21 year old as one of only a handful of untouchable players on the team. The former number one overall pick back in 2013 has just 13 goals through 65 games despite averaging over 20 minutes per game for the first time in his career.  That’s likely not encouraging for a team that will likely be counting on him even more next season with Matt Duchene and/or Gabriel Landeskog potentially on the move with the team reportedly prioritizing defensive help in a return.

Trade Deadline Summary: Winners & Losers Of The Central Division

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The NHL Trade Deadline has come and gone, and while it wasn’t the most exciting deadline day in recent memory, there were quite a few notable moves. Here are the winners and losers of the “wild” Central Division:

Winners

Chicago Blackhawks:

Of course the Blackhawks are winners on deadline day. Did you expect any less? Although they didn’t make any major moves, Chicago brought in two players via trade that can help them immediately. Oduya, a former Blackhawk, is still familiar with the system and has played with many of the current players. Oduya should be able to step in right away, play major minutes, and form a shutdown pair with Niklas Hjalmarsson (when he’s healthy). Just like the good ’ol days. Meanwhile, like nearly any forward, Jurco has a skill set that will fit in well with Chicago’s star forwards and for just the cost of a third-rounder, could represent a long-term fit with the Blackhawks.

Dallas Stars:

The Stars are a tough team to place at the 2017 deadline. They are in the midst of an unforeseen epic collapse of a season and have done well to trade their impending free agents. If Patrick Sharp, Ales Hemsky, and Adam Cracknell weren’t all hurt, Dallas would be a deadline loser for not moving them. As it stands, they did hold on to Jiri Hudler, but traded their three other healthy upcoming UFAs. Eaves earned them great value in return and Korpikoski, a late off-season addition, nets a promising young defenseman in Heatherington. Even McNeill and a fourth-rounder for Oduya is a pretty good deal. So for those three moves anyway, GM Jim Nill did well. With that said, the Benn trade was ill-timed and doesn’t make your team better. Benn still had term on his contract and was the team’s best defensive defenseman and, of course, captain Jamie Benn’s older brother. Dallas will likely regret that move. The Stars are teetering on the edge of winner and loser, but they’ve been through enough this season, so we’ll call them winners.

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Blackhawks Acquire Johnny Oduya

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The Chicago Blackhawks have reached an agreement with the Dallas Stars to acquire defenseman Johnny Oduya.  In return, the Stars receive a conditional fourth round pick along with minor league forward Mark McNeill.  If the Blackhawks win two rounds this postseason and Oduya plays in 50% of the games or more, the pick will be upgraded to a third rounder.

Oduya is no stranger to the Blackhawks as he spent parts of four seasons with the team from 2011-12 through 2014-15.  He played a total of 219 regular season games with Chicago in that span, scoring nine goals and 34 assists while averaging 20:37 per game.  He left the team to sign with Dallas in the summer of 2015.

"FebThe 35 year old rearguard has been slowed by ankle problems this season which took him out of the lineup on two separate occasions.  As a result, he has suited up in just 37 games this year, tallying seven points (1-6-7) while logging a career low 18:10 per night in ice time.

Oduya should slot in as a considerable upgrade on the third pairing for the Blackhawks while giving them another option for their penalty kill.  Alternatively, he could be slotted back alongside Niklas Hjalmarsson (when he returns which is expected to be next week) as the two played together in Oduya’s first stint with Chicago.  Hjalmarsson was placed on injured reserve to free up a roster spot to make the deal.

From the financial side of things, the veteran rearguard carries a cap hit of $3.75MM.  However, the Stars will be retaining 50% as part of the deal.

As for McNeill, he has played in just one NHL game since being drafted in the first round (18th overall) back in 2011.  He has spent the entire season with Chicago’s AHL affiliate in Rockford, scoring six goals while adding 22 assists in 58 games.  He will report to Texas of the AHL.

ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun was the first to report that the Blackhawks had acquired Oduya via Twitter while TSN’s Bob McKenzie added in the details (all Twitter links).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest From Garrioch: Hanzal, Bishop, Shattenkirk, Defensemen

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There remain five or six teams in the hunt for Arizona center Martin Hanzal, reports Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun.  Among the teams that are still interested are Minnesota, Montreal, Nashville, Ottawa, and San Jose.  Because there are still this many suitors for him, GM John Chayka’s asking price remains quite high with a package that still includes a first round pick, a prospect, and potentially a third piece as well.  Unless someone blinks in the next day or two, this situation could be one that goes right down to the wire.

As always, Garrioch has plenty of other tidbits for trade talk around the league.  The full column is worth a look but here are a few other highlights:

  • Although Tampa Bay goalie Ben Bishop is believed to be in play, several league executives believe he won’t be dealt by the deadline as they would prefer to just go after him in the summer in free agency and not have to give up any assets that way. Something that will also likely present a challenge is his $5.95MM cap hit which is something that many teams aren’t able to absorb in its entirety.  If the Lightning have to retain to get a deal done, they could conceivably hold on to him and hope for a late season run; Tampa Bay is six points out of the last Wild Card spot with a game in hand on Boston.
  • A pair of top teams in the East have expressed an interest in St. Louis blueliner Kevin Shattenkirk as the Penguins and Capitals have both held talks with Blues GM Doug Armstrong. It’s not likely that either team would view him as more than a rental player but given the report earlier this week that three teams have had deals fall through after being unable to come to terms on a contract extension, it’s looking more and more likely that Shattenkirk will be moved as a rental.  He’ll be a big help offensively wherever he goes as he sits fourth in the league in points by a defenseman.
  • Still on the blueline, the Sabres have moved into sell mode despite also being six points out of the final playoff spot. As a result, a pair of blueliners are likely to garner considerable interest in Dmitry Kulikov and Cody Franson.  There’s also a belief that Dallas defender Johnny Oduya, who is slated to return to the lineup, could wind up going back to Chicago although Garrioch notes that Montreal could also be a possibility.  Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin is quite familiar with Oduya from his days with the Blackhawks and the team continues to look for defensive help.

Stars Activate Johnny Oduya From IR

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After missing 15 straight games, it looks like Stars defenseman Johnny Oduya is set to rejoin his team. Mark Stepneski of the Stars official website tweeted that the team has activated their alternate captain from the injured reserve.

Oct 13, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Stars defenseman Johnny Oduya (47) in action during the game against the Anaheim Ducks at the American Airlines Center. The Stars defeat the Ducks 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Oduya was originally placed on the injured reserve with a lower-body injury in mid-January. The 35-year-old has battled ailments throughout his second season in Dallas, and those injuries have clearly played a role in his production. In 36 games, Oduya has only recorded one goal and six assists, as a well as an underwhelming 20 hits. Still, as our own Zach Leach pointed out, the veteran is a very useful piece for the youthful Stars defense, and they’ve clearly struggled without their leader on the ice. In the 15 games that Oduya has missed, the Stars have limped to a 5-10 record.

With the trade deadline approaching, the defender could actually be on the move, as our own Brian La Rose wrote earlier this month. The player is in the final year of a two-year, $7.5MM deal, and his $3.75MM cap hit certainly isn’t impossible to trade. Oduya could provide some veteran leadership to a team seeking defensive reinforcement. On the flip side, Dallas is still within striking distance of that second Western Conference wild card spot.

Friedman’s Latest: Vermette, Smith, Oduya, Eaves, Flames

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Although Antoine Vermette’s suspension was a CBA-mandated 10 games, there is a growing suggestion that it could be cut in half via the appeal process, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman writes in his latest 30 Thoughts column.  He believes that this could be something that the league and the Players’ Association were working on which could explain the delay in the suspension being announced in the first place (not to mention how quickly it was announced that an appeal had been launched).

However, this doesn’t appear to be something that the NHL officials would be too happy with so this is far from a sure bet.  Many officials are still unhappy with Gary Bettman’s decision to reduce the ban on Dennis Wideman last year and Friedman could see the officials pushing back on this one.

As always, the full 30 Thoughts are well worth the read but here are a handful of the highlights:

  • The Red Wings are telling teams that they are “open for business” when it comes to the trade market. However, they’re unwilling to move any key youngsters unless a young, top pairing defenseman is involved in the discussions.  He notes that Detroit will talk to defenseman Brendan Smith about a possible contract extension in the coming days before committing to moving him as a rental by March 1st.  We took a closer look at Smith’s case recently in our Trade Candidates series.
  • While Dallas blueliner Johnny Oduya would be an ideal target for many contenders, there is concern over the shape of his ankle, which has caused him to miss time twice already this season (he currently is out of the lineup as a result of it). If he’s able to return in the coming days (or is at least close), there should still be some interest but if not, the Stars may be in tough to get the type of return they’re hoping for.  Still with the Stars, there are no talks on an extension with pending UFA winger Patrick Eaves.  With 21 goals and a cap hit of just $1MM, there will be plenty of teams interested in him over the next week.
  • Friedman expects that the Flames haven’t finished making moves yet after their acquisition of defenseman Michael Stone earlier this week. He notes that they’re looking for some grit on the wing and also wouldn’t be surprised if they look at the goaltending market.  Calgary sits 24th in team save percentage this season and both Brian Elliott and Chad Johnson are slated to be unrestricted free agents in July.  There are more notable goalies available than usual this season so the time might be right for GM Brad Treliving to try to upgrade that position.

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