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Metropolitan Notes: Tavares, Voracek, Bowey

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If the New York Islanders’ waiting game with John Tavares didn’t have any more drama, the New York Post’s Larry Brooks writes that the critical deadline in the team’s quest to get state approval for a state-of-the-art arena at Belmont Park is a more than four months away, which will likely come near the NHL trade deadline. Tavares, who has made it clear that he wants to wait for certainty of a long-term home in New York, might not have an answer when he must make a decision.

In fact, Brooks writes that no one he has talked to has any idea if an answer will come before the deadline, let alone before free agency begins on July 1. The approval process has multiple bidders and may need more time than normal estimates. Regardless, owners and even Tavares would probably be more than willing to wait until July 1 to wait for the state’s decision. However, Brooks writes that it’s the trade deadline that will cause the real problem. With likely no idea of whether they will get the state’s approval before the trade deadline, it’s quite possible the Islanders will have to make a decision whether to hope for the best and wait it out with Tavares (with the possibility of losing him for nothing) or trade him before the trade deadline, which could present quite a haul if Tavares plays well this year.

Brooks writes the team might be able to get quality assets from teams that Tavares might be willing to sign with, such as the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Maple Leafs or the Tampa Bay Lightning.

  • Charlie O’Connor of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that Philadelphia Flyers wing Jakub Voracek is starting to take his game to a new level this year. After what many referred to as a poor preseason, the 28-year-old veteran has played great and while he hasn’t scored a goal, he has put up nine assists in five games so far and is emphasizing unselfish play. Voracek, always a solid playmaker, had 20 goals and 41 assists last year.
  • Troy Machir of NBC Sports writes that Madison Bowey NHL debut isn’t going to be a memorable one for the rookie defenseman after the team lost to the Philadelphia Flyers 8-2. Called up to replaced the injured Matt Niskanen who is likely to be out until early November with an upper body injury, Bowey struggled, making several miscues in his 14:55 of ice time. He finished with a plus/minus of -3 and, according to Machir, didn’t look ready for the big-league club.

 

Flyers’ Bloated Forward Contracts Becoming Issue

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The Philadelphia Flyers haven’t seen the second round of the post-season since 2012, and in those 5 seasons since, missed the show entirely 3 times. For a team that spends as much on offense as the Flyers, their production has been incredibly mediocre. Many point to the seemingly never-ending goaltending carousel as the root cause of the team’s woes, and they wouldn’t be entirely incorrect. That said, over the last four seasons, their goals for per 60 minutes (GF60) is good for only 25th league-wide. That puts them above only the Vancouver Canucks, Carolina Hurricanes, Arizona Coyotes, New Jersey Devils, and Buffalo Sabres in that timeframe. In short, their offense has been remarkably underwhelming for years. And yet, the team is allocating $47.32 MM of its available $75 MM to its forward group in 2017-18, with most of that money tied up in only a handful of skaters. For comparison’s sake, that’s more than $5 MM more than their divisional rivals in Pittsburgh or Washington.

Leading the pack in terms of bloated contracts are the team’s captain Claude Giroux and last season’s team-points-leader Jakub Voracek. Neither player is detrimental to the cause – they both have tallied multiple 50+ point seasons with relative consistency. That said, their contracts are some of the most exorbitant in the league. Giroux’s $8.275 MM AAV for the next 5 seasons puts him in an elite group of forwards. So does Voracek’s $8.25 MM for the next 7 seasons. This places them 12th and 13th respectively among the highest paid players league-wide for the 2017-18 season. Giroux’s career PPG is .87, while Voracek’s is a measly .71. Excluding defensemen P.K. Subban and goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, these stats simply don’t match up to the rest of the “elite” group. Jonathan Toews’ and Anze Kopitar both also account for around .87 PPG, but unarguably do far more on the defensive side of the puck than the simply capable Giroux. One of these bloated contracts alone would be a hindrance; two on the same roster is nearly insurmountable.

Further down the roster, you see other albatross contracts. Valtteri Filppula was acquired by the Flyers to shore up the center position and increase playmaking ability. He only scored 8 points through 20 games in Philadelphia. Thankfully for the Flyers, his $5 MM contract expires at the end of 2017-18. Jori Lehtera was acquired this off-season in a bizarre move for Brayden Schenn, who arguably saw a great deal of improvement last season. Lehtera has only two seasons remaining at $4.7 MM, but his only effective (44 points) season is two years in the past. He scored only 7 goals all last season. Then there’s Sean Couturier, who while not a total dud, has failed to progress the way the organization hoped when they drafted him with the 8th overall in 2011 acquired as part of the Jeff Carter transaction. He provides solid defensive play, but he has never broken 40 points, and seemingly regressed last season, falling out of Selke conversations. He has 5 seasons remaining at a moderate $4.33 MM AAV. Wayne Simmonds (the one true bargain on the team) and Matt Read both make over $3 MM, while Dale Weise and Michael Raffl both draw over $2 MM. For a team that truly struggles to put the puck in the net, a lot of money is being spent on marginal players.

Ultimately, the Flyers are in a difficult spot playing in the Metropolitan Division. With the high-flying, offensively-dynamic Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins competing for playoff positioning, the inclination to try and duplicate those franchises is only natural. The team did luck into a dynamic, potentially franchise, talent in Nolan Patrick, which may help alleviate some of the problems with consistent offensive production. That said, if the Flyers continue to struggle this season, look for some of the offensive big guns to find themselves on the trading block. Excluding the one year of Filppula and the incredibly valuable Simmonds, only Giroux has any sort of no-movement clause. With Ivan Provorov and Shayne Gostisbehere looking to be core pieces on the back-end for many years, the day may soon come where an offensive overhaul visits Philadelphia. GM Ron Hextall will have money moving out in the next few seasons, but he undoubtedly has decisions to make going forward, particularly if this season again falls short of a playoff appearance.

Flames To Sign Spencer Foo

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One of the biggest college free agent prizes has decided on his NHL destination, according to TSN’s Bob McKenzie. Union forward Spencer Foo will sign with the Calgary Flames. The 6’0″, 180 pound right winger scored 26 goals and added 36 assists in his Junior season with the Union Dutchmen. He was known in NCAA circles for being the motor behind the highest scoring line in college hockey, alongside Mike Vecchione, who ended up in Philadelphia.

Foo was previously linked to other teams, most seriously those same Flyers. However, Foo decided to change course, as he and his agent were pursued by other teams with more glaring holes at the winger position. Although details are scarce as to the rationale, one has to imagine that he was looking to have a serious opportunity on the right side. Calgary is weak on the right side, and only two players are under contract that naturally slot there: Troy Brouwer and Michael Frolik. The Flyers, by comparison, have multiple flexible core players who can slot on that side, including mainstays Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds, and Jakub Voracek, with Matt Read and Dale Weise also getting looks. In Calgary, he is almost certain to have a crack at the top-9 on the roster, with the ability to play with creative talents Johnny Gaudreau and Sam Bennett.

Foo is tough for his size and has good skating ability. He has been lauded for his exceptional work ethic and conditioning, which at 23 will provide a decent opportunity to smoothly transition. The odds are against him to make an immediate offensive impact, as many college signings still take time to develop. For the re-building Flames, however, the signing is a perfect fit. Foo will be allowed to blossom alongside the young core that is already present, without worrying too heavily about internal competition for ice time on the wing.

Terms will not be revealed until that July 1st date, when the Unrestricted Free Agency signing period starts. Flames Nation’s Ryan Pike expects the deal to be a two-year entry level contract, at somewhere near the maximum $925,000 per year.

Expansion Primer: Philadelphia Flyers

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Philadelphia Flyers are coming off a disappointing season of Metropolitan struggles. Thankfully, with the #2 pick in the upcoming draft, they will receive an infusion a top level talent in Nico Hischier or Nolan Patrick. There aren’t a ton of success stories from this last season for the Flyers, in which Wayne Simmonds led the way up front. Many players took a noticeable step back and the younger forwards failed to produce at an impactful clip.

The Flyers are in desperate need of embracing a full youth movement. The longer they cling to players like Andrew MacDonald, the worse off their rebuild will be. This is not a team that can compete for a Stanley Cup in the near future and with the expansion draft forcing tough decisions, now is the time to embrace that organizational mentality.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Claude Giroux (NMC), Valtteri Filppula (NMC), Jakub Voracek, Brayden Schenn, Sean Couturier, Matt Read, Dale Weise, Michael Raffl, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Nick Cousins, Scott Laughton, Greg Carey, Colin McDonald, Taylor Leier

Defense
Andrew MacDonald, Radko Gudas, Brandon Manning, Shayne Gostisbehere, T.J. Brennan, Will O’Neill, Jesper Pettersson

Goaltender
Michal Neuvirth, Anthony Stolarz

Notable Exemptions

Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny, Samuel Morin, Carter Hart

Key Decisions

The Flyers have to protect two players – both of whom are probably not deserving of the no movement clause they have been granted. Giroux had his second straight offensively disappointing season. At $8.275 MM a season until 2022, the Flyers have created a really difficult situation for themselves. And although previous GM Paul Holmgren was somehow able to unload Mike Richards prior to his momentous fall from grace, Giroux is already known to be an albatross. He’s still producing, with 14 goals and 58 points in his last outing, but he is struggling to be a difference maker against tough competition. Filppula only played 20 games this past season for Philadelphia, so any criticism might be premature. But the well-rounded center has only broken 20 goals twice in his career, most recently 4 seasons ago. He seems rather redundant on a team with lots of mediocre offensive talents.

Voracek might also be slightly overpaid for what he brings to the team ($8.25 MM), as his possession metrics have trended consistently downward over the course of four seasons. That said, he was Philadelphia’s leading scorer in 2016-17 and has a secure roster spot. He’s only two years removed from an All-Star appearance, but is he dominant enough to carry an offense if another key member struggles again? Simmonds is an obvious keeper for the physical edge he brings along with his consistent production.  The net-front presence and leadership skills make him a prime candidate for captain if Giroux were somehow jettisoned in the near future. Both Schenn and Couturier are promising key pieces to the future of the squad, and had solid outings last season.

From here, the decision at forward gets difficult. Weal had solid underlying metrics and showed flexibility in his game. Does GM Ron Hextall believe there is there more to his game, and if so, is he worth signing as a UFA before the expansion draft, burning a protection slot? Probably not. Some believe Cousins is worth protecting, as he is still young at 23 years old, and shown potential at the AHL level. With the other players vying for the position, however, the organization would have to be incredibly high on his ability to piece it all together next season.

The three serious remaining choices – Laughton, Raffl, and Bellemare – a group which likely contains the player to be claimed by Vegas, poses a question which will be entirely decided by organizational philosophy. Laughton is the player who has the highest upside but also the greatest potential for bust. Mike Raffl is a consistent producer whose ability would guarantee a certain amount of offense on a forward corps that can really struggles over long stretches. Bellemare is your classic heart-and-soul player – his latest perfomance in the World Championships put that on display for all onlookers. In the end, based on the praise afforded him by the coaching staff and other players, as well as his assistant captainship, Bellemare could easily find himself as the final protected player. Whether that is the correct long-term decision will be a topic of great scrutiny.

On defense, there are very few players signed. Gudas and Gostisbehere will absolutely be protected, so the third choice is the only one up for debate. Many believe that MacDonald is considered the veteran savvy anchor, but his possession stats have been poor, while his turnover frequency has been disturbing. He plays over 20 minutes a night, but hasn’t performed as consistently as a top-pairing player should. Manning still has room to improve, is four years younger, and posts a positive Corsi influence (51.3%) on a corps that truly floundered all season. Neither is going to be a game breaker for Vegas, but it would seem odd that Philadelphia wouldn’t roll the dice and expose MacDonald in hopes that his $5 MM contract for three more seasons could be removed from the books.

The goaltending decision will be an interesting one for outside watchers. With Steve Mason gone, Neuvirth is obviously their tender going forward, correct? Well, perhaps not. Neuvirth’s stats (.901 SV%) really don’t justify his protection, and especially considering the forward situation, he would almost certainly not be claimed. Stolarz is the goaltender of the immediate future for the team and will see quite a bit of duty this year. The 6’6″ former London Knight is going to be relied upon to take a step forward, and his progression in Lehigh Valley has been quite promising. Exposing him could backfire in a way that leaving Neuvirth open for taking could not. If the team is serious about a youth movement, his value as an asset needs to be shielded.

After quite a few tough determinations, and trying to be realistic about the organization’s valuation of certain players, what follows is the final projection for Philadelphia.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F / 3D / 1G

Forwards
Claude Giroux (NMC)
Valtteri Filppula (NMC)
Sean Couturier
Wayne Simmonds
Brayden Schenn
Jakub Voracek
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare

Defensemen
Shayne Gostisbehere
Radko Gudas
Brandon Manning

Goaltender
Anthony Stolarz

Flyers Notes: Del Zotto, Schultz, Hextall, Mason

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Philadelphia’s defense is setting up to look a lot different next season as youngsters like Samuel Morin and Travis Sanheim, among others, make a push for a full-time roster spot.  Accordingly, their pending unrestricted free agents, Michael Del Zotto, aren’t likely to return next season.

Del Zotto confirmed to Marc Narducci of the Philadelphia Inquirer that there haven’t been any talks about a potential contract extension.  The blueliner acknowledged he has been frustrated this season after seeing his role change considerably; his average ice time is down nearly four minutes a night from last year while he has also spent time as a healthy scratch.

As for Schultz, he acknowledged to CSN Philly’s Tim Panaccio that there’s a good chance he won’t play next season.  He doesn’t like the idea of moving his family to sign a one year deal while it’s unlikely that the Flyers will look to bring him back, even in the current depth role he finds himself in.

Combined, the duo accounted for a little over $6MM on Philadelphia’s salary cap this season and if they are replaced with players on entry level deals, GM Ron Hextall should have some flexibility heading into the offseason.

More from Philly:

  • In a separate column, Panaccio reports that Hextall has no plans of dealing any of his core players away this summer. He highlights forwards Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds, Jakub Voracek, and Brayden Schenn in that group.  Each of those players is signed for at least two more years beyond this one with Voracek being under contract the longest through 2023-24.  As things stand, the Flyers have nearly $60MM committed for next season to 16 players which should give them enough room to add another core piece without necessarily having to take one away to free up payroll space to do so in more of a shake-up type of deal.
  • On top of not negotiating with their pending UFA blueliners, no contract talks have been held with goaltender Steve Mason, notes Sam Carchidi, also of the Philadelphia Inquirer. As a result, he reports that it’s unlikely the Flyers will try to bring the pending UFA back next season.  The team re-signed Michal Neuvirth to a two year extension back at the trade deadline and could opt to bring in another goalie via free agency or give intriguing prospect Anthony Stolarz a shot at full-time NHL duty.  It has been a tough year from Mason, whose .908 SV% is his lowest since 2011-12 back when he was with Columbus.

Snapshots: Three Stars, Metropolitan Division, Laine

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For the second straight week, a Philadelphia Flyer has been named the first star of the NHL.

Jakub Voracek had nine points in four games (3-6-9) as the Flyers went 4-0-0 as they continue their incredible nine-game winning-streak. The high point of the week was a four-point game in the Flyers 6-5 win over the Oilers. Voracek is now third in NHL scoring with 32 points in 31 games behind only Vladimir Tarasenko (32 points in 29 games) and Connor McDavid (39 points in 31 games).

Antti Raanta went 3-0-0 with two shutouts as he temporarily takes the net over from Henrik Lundqvist. His back-to-back shutouts marked the first time that a Rangers goaltender earned back-to-back shutouts since 2003 when Mike Dunham did it. Raanta now has an 8-1-0 record with a sparkling 0.943 SV%.

Sam Gagner may be the best value contract (non entry-level) in the NHL, with 19 points in 25 games for just $650K. He had six points in three games this past week (3-3-6) as the Blue Jackets added to their six game winning streak. He has already surpassed his point totals from last season (16 points in 53 games with an AHL demotion).

  • The Metropolitan Division is the best division in hockey right now, writes NBC Sports’ Jason Brough. The New York Rangers are tied for first in the NHL, but just below them are the defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins, the Philadelphia Flyers who have won nine games in a row, the Columbus Blue Jackets who have won 11 of 16 and six in a row, and the reigning President’s Trophy winners in the Washington Capitals. All those teams are four points apart. They’re at least seven points up on the Devils, Hurricanes, and Islanders. The latter has gone 6-1-1 in their last eight, but are still ten points behind the fifth place team. Those top five teams are all in the top eight of the NHL.
  • Patrik Laine is leading all rookies in goal scoring and is third in the entire NHL with 17 goals in 32 games, but he had a rough go last night. With the Jets and Oilers tied at two in the last ten minutes of the third, Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck kicked a Mark Letestu shot into the slot and Laine one-timed the puck into his own net, in an apparent attempt to clear the puck. It stood up as the winning goal. New Jets captain Blake Wheeler did a good job consoling Laine on the bench and Laine got another shot-on-goal as the Jets fought to tie the game.

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