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Jake Guentzel

Penguins Notes: Guentzel, Additional Moves, Cap Flexibility

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It appears the Pittsburgh Penguins won’t be getting any long-term injured reserve relief from Jake Guentzel at the beginning of the season after all. Speaking with reporters today in the wake of yesterday’s Erik Karlsson trade, Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas said Guentzel is only expected to miss around the first five games of the season after undergoing ankle surgery last week, which wouldn’t qualify him to start the year on LTIR. LTIR requires players to miss ten games or 24 days with an injury.

After clearing $3.1MM in cap space via yesterday’s massive trade, Pittsburgh wouldn’t have needed Guentzel’s $6MM cap hit on LTIR to start the season to become cap-compliant anyways. It’s good news for Pittsburgh, who now won’t be without their top-line goal-scoring winger as long as previously thought. As they learned the hard way last season, every game will matter for the Penguins to avoid missing the postseason for a second straight campaign.

More from Dubas on the state of the Penguins today:

  • The Penguins are likely done with any major moves, Dubas confirmed, saying, “I think this will be the group,” with training camp six weeks away. It’s been quite an eventful first offseason in Pittsburgh for Dubas, whose forward corps projects to have at least six new faces on opening night – Reilly Smith, Matthew Nieto, Noel Acciari, Lars Eller, Vinnie Hinostroza, and Rem Pitlick, making it a 50% turnover from last season. With virtually no financial flexibility left to exhaust, this isn’t a surprising comment.
  • Dubas also gave some insight into how he’ll manage the salary cap in-season, saying he won’t be afraid to place players on waivers, something he did with frequency during his time with the Toronto Maple Leafs. He also confirmed Pittsburgh is on track to carry one player short of the maximum 23-man roster and will just have one extra forward and one extra defenseman on the roster for opening night. Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Travis Boyd, Michael Amadio, and Adam Brooks are some notable players Dubas lost on waivers recently with Toronto.

Jake Guentzel Out Three Months After Ankle Surgery

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Pittsburgh Penguins winger Jake Guentzel underwent successful surgery on Wednesday to repair a lingering right ankle issue, general manager Kyle Dubas said in a statement today. The 2017 Stanley Cup champion will be re-evaluated in 12 weeks, meaning he’ll miss around the first month of the 2023-24 season.

Guentzel underwent his surgery in Minnesota, where he’d been playing summer-league hockey up until the procedure. Dubas said as Guentzel was ramping up preparation for training camp, “it was apparent that his ankle injury was not resolving in a way that was satisfactory to [him] or the Penguins.”

Financially, this is quite an important move for Pittsburgh. Guentzel’s timetable for a return means his $6MM cap hit is a candidate for LTIR to start the season, which would give the Penguins some more offseason cap flexibility as they try and position themselves to acquire top-flight defender Erik Karlsson from the San Jose Sharks.

Regardless of any potential ulterior motives at play, Guentzel is a two-time 40-goal scorer whose presence is invaluable for a team likely to be stuck in a tight Eastern Conference playoff race. Pittsburgh surely has no plans of missing the playoffs for a second straight year, and they’ll need Guentzel’s best after he returns from injury to stay ahead. In the meantime, they’ll rely on veteran addition Reilly Smith, a member of last year’s Stanley Cup-winning team with the Vegas Golden Knights, to shoulder some of Guentzel’s load. He’s the most likely candidate to slide up to first-line duties alongside Sidney Crosby and one of Rickard Rakell or Bryan Rust.

Guentzel has become synonymous with first-line duties on the Penguins throughout his seven-year career there, stapled to Crosby’s wing for much of his NHL time. He’s averaged over 20 minutes per game over the past four seasons, routinely producing around a point-per-game clip since breaking out for 40 goals and 76 points in 2018-19.

Unfortunately, this isn’t the first time Guentzel will miss a significant chunk of a season for injury-related reasons. He missed the last 30 games of the 2019-20 campaign thanks to a shoulder injury.

Notably, Guentzel’s injury guarantees them cap compliance to start the season, even if a Karlsson trade doesn’t pan out. The Penguins were more than $3MM over the cap after signing Drew O’Connor earlier this week, even if it was a slightly inflated figure thanks to three goalies currently on their NHL roster. Now, with Guentzel projected to land on LTIR to start the season, CapFriendly projects Pittsburgh to have roughly $2.75MM in space.

Previewing The Top 2024 Unrestricted Free Agents

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This year’s free agent class was underwhelming. There’s no disrespect intended here to players like Alex Killorn, Dmitry Orlov and Vladimir Tarasenko. However, we’ve grown accustomed to at least one true star being available on the market every year – at least a top-ten player at their position. But a flurry of extensions took some potential game-breakers, such as Boston Bruins sniper David Pastrnak off the market, limiting the amount of star power available.

With the salary cap finally expected to jump significantly by about $4MM next offseason, some NHL general managers will undoubtedly look to spend that extra cash on a shiny new toy on the UFA market. As 2023 is mainly in the rearview mirror, let’s take a look at some of the best players slated to hit the open market next summer, whether or not they may extend, and offer some way-too-early contract projections in the process:

F Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs) – The unquestionable crown jewel of the 2024 free agent class might also be one of the least likely to hit the market. Matthews is more than just a superstar – he’s a season removed from back-to-back Rocket Richard Trophies, he’s led the league in even-strength goals in four out of his seven NHL seasons, and he’s coming off a “down season” in which he still managed 40 goals despite a career-low 12.2 shooting percentage. Toronto is still plugging away at an extension with Matthews, a process that was surely elongated by a change at the GM position earlier this offseason. While multiple reports suggested it likely won’t be a long-term deal to keep Matthews in Toronto, seeing his name available for anyone to pursue next July would be shocking.

Extension Likelihood: Very Likely
Projected Contract: Five years, $62MM ($12.4MM AAV)

F William Nylander (Toronto Maple Leafs) – Another star in Canada’s largest city is also headed for the open market next season. Nylander is coming off a strong season with a career-high 40 goals and 87 points, but multiple reports indicate contract talks are currently at an impasse between the two sides. The Swedish winger reportedly wants an eight-figure cap hit on his next deal, one he’s increasingly unlikely to receive after sub-$10MM extensions for players like the Carolina Hurricanes’ Sebastian Aho. He will be in his prime at 28 years old next summer, though, and he currently holds the undisputed title of the best pure winger slated to hit the market. Given the slated cap increase, Nylander may be able to garner the money he desires elsewhere if Toronto isn’t willing to fork over another eight-figure deal.

Extension Likelihood: Somewhat Unlikely
Projected Contract: Seven years, $70MM ($10MM AAV)

F Steven Stamkos (Tampa Bay Lightning) – Including Stamkos on this list seems like more of a formality than anything else. The captain of back-to-back Stanley Cup championship teams in Tampa and likely to go down as the greatest player in franchise history when he retires, it’s nearly impossible to imagine him wearing another jersey. Barring an unforeseen breakdown in communication, Stamkos will be re-upping with the Bolts on what could potentially be the final contract of his NHL career as he enters his mid-30s. After yet another point-per-game season, Stamkos will undoubtedly be sticking around in Tampa as long as they’ll have him, likely at a slight discount to help them replenish their depth reserves.

Extension Likelihood: Very Likely
Projected Contract: Four years, $31.5MM ($7.875MM AAV)

F Jake Guentzel (Pittsburgh Penguins) – The Penguins have exhibited a strong tendency toward keeping the band together in recent seasons, but it’s a trend that may change under the front-office leadership of Kyle Dubas. Still, it’s hard to imagine the Penguins won’t field a competitive offer to keep Guentzel in the fold. He’s been one of the most successful and consistent linemates to Sidney Crosby in the entire illustrious career of the future Hall-of-Famer, he’s a two-time 40-goal scorer, and he’s an incredibly clutch playoff performer. While contract extension talks haven’t begun between the two parties yet, reporting indicates the Penguins’ core shares the public’s view of Guentzel and would like to keep him around.

Extension Likelihood: Likely
Projected Contract: Eight years, $75MM ($9.375MM AAV)

F Mark Scheifele (Winnipeg Jets) – The first of two Jets on this list hasn’t been in trade rumors quite as much as his netminding counterpart, but there’s still a very good chance Scheifele is sporting a different jersey by the 2024 trade deadline. Speculation has immediately run rampant about Scheifele as a stop-gap fix down the middle for the Boston Bruins, who are without their number-one center after captain Patrice Bergeron announced his retirement last week. There are plenty of question marks about how highly Scheifele is actually valued around the league, given his significant defensive lapses, but he’s consistently produced the offense you’d want out of a number-one center. Despite scoring a career-high 42 goals last season, 2022-23 was actually Scheifele’s first campaign falling short of a point per game since 2015-16, when he was just 22 years old.

Extension Likelihood: Unlikely
Projected Contract: Seven years, $66MM ($9.4MM AAV)

D Devon Toews (Colorado Avalanche) – Toews may be the most unheralded defenseman in the league thanks to his partner, Cale Makar. On almost any other team, Toews would be a legitimate number-one defender with very few holes in his game. Little has been made of his impending free agency, but he’ll be due a major raise on his current bargain-bin $4.1MM cap hit. Combined with the potential loss of captain Gabriel Landeskog’s LTIR relief should he return to play in 2024-25, it could be incredibly difficult for Colorado to retain him even with the cap going up. Not only does Toews consistently rank among having some of the best defensive impacts in the league, but he’s also coming off back-to-back 50-point campaigns and has finished top-15 in Norris voting during each of his three seasons in Colorado.

Extension Likelihood: 50/50
Projected Contract: Seven years, $61MM ($8.7MM AAV)

D Brandon Montour (Florida Panthers) – A pair of prominent Panthers defenders are up for UFA status next season in Montour and Gustav Forsling, but Montour’s the one we’ll cover more in-depth here after he led the Panthers’ defense in playoff scoring with eight goals and 13 points in 21 games despite playing through a shoulder injury which will cost him the beginning of the 2023-24 campaign. His stock has never been higher after exploding for 73 points in 80 regular season games, along with a career-high 107 penalty minutes. While he’s still a rather one-dimensional player and likely to be somewhat of a liability defensively, he’s finally shown legitimate top-pair ability at 29 years old. Committing any term to Montour as a UFA may be a case of buyer beware, however, as his track record is far from consistent.

Extension Likelihood: Somewhat Unlikely
Projected Contract: Four years, $26MM ($6.5MM AAV)

G Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg Jets) – It seemed very unlikely a few months ago that Hellebuyck would be on this list today. While there’s no chance he’ll be signing an extension with the Jets, a trade followed by an extension with a new team seemed rather likely this offseason. However, some outlandish financial demands from Hellebuyck’s camp dried up trade interest, and there hasn’t been a lot of movement on that front lately. While small, the possibility that Hellebuyck lands on the open market next season seems to be increasing without a trade or extension any closer to fruition.

Extension Likelihood: Very Unlikely
Projected Contract: Seven years, $61.25MM ($8.75MM AAV)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Penguins Notes: Karlsson, Guentzel, O’Connor

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Josh Yohe of The Athletic writes that all is quiet on the Erik Karlsson trade talks, but the Pittsburgh Penguins remain very interested in the reigning Norris Trophy winner. Yohe doesn’t know whether a deal will materialize quickly or if it could drag out all summer, but Mark Madden has one theory on the matter that Tim Benz writes about in the Pittsburgh Tribute-Review. Madden says that his sources have told him that the San Jose Sharks have the Penguins and the Carolina Hurricanes’ best offers and everyone is in a holding pattern to see if the Sharks will crack and take one of the deals.

Kyle Dubas and the Penguins would clearly love to complete a deal, but they do have a reasonably good top-4 defensive group should they miss out on landing Karlsson. While trading for Karlsson would dramatically improve the Penguins offense, they do have a good fallback option should he end up elsewhere. At the moment, Pittsburgh has Jeff Petry penciled in on the right side of their second pairing, and while he didn’t play up to his $6.25MM cap hit last year, his pairing with Marcus Pettersson was quite good.

In other Penguins notes:

  • Yohe writes in The Athletic that the Penguins and pending unrestricted free agent forward Jake Guentzel have had no talks on a contract extension for the two-time 40-goal scorer. Yohe doesn’t find this surprising given that acting Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas has been busy taking care of other business and adds that he and Guentzel’s agent have a good working relationship. Yohe’s sense is that the Penguins’ veteran players want Guentzel in the fold long-term, and he figures that the two sides will come to an agreement on an extension in the not-too-distant future. Guentzel has scored 76 goals in the past two seasons and has been the most productive winger that Sidney Crosby has played with, however, he is small in stature and will be 30 years old by the time his next contract kicks in. He will also be looking to cash in on what is likely to be the last lucrative long-term deal he will sign.
  • Dan Kingerski of Pittsburgh Hockey Now wonders if the outcome of restricted free agent Drew O’Connor’s contract negotiations is tied to the Penguins’ desire to facilitate a trade for a defenseman. O’Connor filed for arbitration a few weeks ago meaning that once his case is settled or he re-signs it will open a second buyout window for the Penguins. Pittsburgh currently sits over the salary cap even with O’Connor unsigned but could buyout one of their undesirable contracts to create space once O’Connor puts pen to paper. The 25-year-old isn’t expected to demand much of a cap hit as he posted just five goals and six assists in 46 games last season and spent a good chunk of the year in the AHL, however, the days after he signs his next deal could send shockwaves through the NHL.

Metro Notes: Pacioretty, Mayfield, Penguins

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It seems that unrestricted free agent forward Max Pacioretty is generating substantial interest on the open market after back-to-back instances of a ruptured Achilles tendon within months of each other. Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli reports Friday the Carolina Hurricanes, for whom Pacioretty played only five games in the 2022-23 season due to the ruptures, have granted him permission to explore early negotiations elsewhere before the market opens tomorrow.

The likelihood of re-injury has certainly diminished his chances of earning a lot of cash on his next deal, especially considering a much longer injury history that predates his Achilles issues. But when healthy, the 34-year-old left wing is still a threat for 25 to 30 goals in a season and can handle top-six minutes. He did light the lamp three times in his abbreviated stint with Carolina and has shot above 10% in every season since 2018. We predicted Pacioretty to receive a one-year, $2MM bonus-laden deal on our list of this summer’s top 50 UFAs, although it seems it won’t be with his former club.

More from the Metropolitan Division today:

  • As the Saturday deadline looms, the New York Islanders are actively negotiating with defenseman Scott Mayfield’s representatives in an effort to secure a contract extension before he becomes a UFA, Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic says. Mayfield, who recorded a career-high 24 points this season, is likely to earn a significant raise on his current $1.45MM cap hit. Now 30, the 6-foot-5 Mayfield is still a very effective two-way defender who doesn’t shy away from the physical side of the game, also incurring a career-high 83 penalty minutes in 2022-23.
  • The Pittsburgh Penguins and goaltender Tristan Jarry have shown mutual interest in reaching a new deal before 11 am CT tomorrow, but the term of the deal is a point of contention, The Athletic’s Rob Rossi says. Jarry carries his flaws as a long-term starter, especially when it comes to the injury department, but he’ll be the best goalie available if he does hit the market tomorrow. He’s posted 20 wins in four straight seasons and averaged a .915 save percentage over that timeframe, numbers certainly reflective of a starting-caliber netminder.
  • In a related development, Rossi says there are strong indications that the Penguins are close to securing a contract extension with forward Jake Guentzel. Don’t expect it to be announced soon, though, as both Guentzel and interim general manager Kyle Dubas recognize the Penguins have much more pressing offseason matters to handle, such as Jarry’s potential extension. Guentzel, a bonafide top-line winger, has averaged over a point per game over the past five seasons and would have been one of the top wingers available on the UFA market in 2024.

Pittsburgh Penguins Facing Big Decision On Jake Guentzel

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Josh Yohe and Rob Rossi of The Athletic write that the Pittsburgh Penguins have a big decision to make on star winger Jake Guentzel as the team enters the free agency period. The perennial 30-goal scorer has a year left on his contract at the bargain price of $6MM and is just a year away from reaching unrestricted free agency. Guentzel’s extension is a delicate balancing act for the Penguins as they are likely at the tail end of their window to contend and they have a lot of needs, but Guentzel remains Sidney Crosby’s favorite linemate and is still highly productive.

Guentzel had 36 goals and 37 assists last season in 78 games in what a lot of people considered a down year for the 28-year-old. He and Crosby were still able to provide much of the scoring for the Penguins, but they did have several cold stretches where they weren’t able to find the net. The team faltered in these stretches due to the lack of a strong supporting cast.

Yohe and Rossi wonder if the Penguins might considering trading Guentzel rather than signing him. The return for the player would likely allow the Penguins to fill in some of the many holes they have, but it would create big hole in their top-6 on Crosby’s wing. Yohe and Rossi point out the risk involved would be great, but signing a small, slow forward to a lucrative long-term deal on the wrong side of thirty carries a great deal of risk as well.

The Athletic projects that Guentzel’s next contract could have an average annual value around $9.2MM. That would make him the highest paid Penguin, and while Guentzel has been incredibly consistent throughout his career, he would spend much of his next contract without the benefit of Sidney Crosby as his center.

Guentzel is also one of the few roster players the Penguins have who doesn’t have trade protection, meaning that if Dubas and company want to turn over their underwhelming roster then Guentzel might be the biggest trade chip they could dangle.

Jake Guentzel To Miss World Championships

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Earlier this afternoon, Seth Rorabaugh of Tribune-Review Sports reported that Pittsburgh Penguins all-star forward, Jake Guentzel, will miss the upcoming IIHF World Championships due to an undisclosed injury. It was also noted that Guentzel is not necessarily physically unable to play, but this move is mostly precautionary.

Initially, during the Penguins’ exit interviews on April 15th at the conclusion of the season, Guentzel did note that he expected to play for Team USA during this year’s World Championships. As recently as Tuesday, during a podcast with Craig Custance of The Athletic, the head coach of the USA team, David Quinn, also expected Guentzel to be a part of the team as well (Tweet Link).

Fortunately for Pittsburgh, Guentzel’s agent, Ben Hankinson, mentions that the injury is not very serious, and Guentzel will be ready to start the 2023-24 season with the Penguins. Being one of the few bright spots on Pittsburgh’s roster this year, Guentzel is not a forward that the Penguins could afford to miss.

For the fifth year in a row, Guentzel once again hovered close to a point-per-game, scoring 36 goals and 37 assists in 78 games played. This season, Pittsburgh finished 16th in the NHL in Goals For with a total of 261 as a team on the year. Scoring 13.8% of all Penguins goals this season, Guentzel is leaned on in a huge way as a big part of Pittsburgh’s offense.

Metropolitan Notes: Carter, Worlds, Dowd, Islanders

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After a good performance in 2021-22, Penguins center Jeff Carter was rewarded with a two-year contract extension.  However, things didn’t go as well this year as the 38-year-old managed just 29 points in 79 games while having his playing time cut by nearly four minutes a night.  However, despite the setback, Carter told reporters, including Matt Vensel of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, that he intends to play next season instead of retiring.  Even if whoever takes over for GM Ron Hextall doesn’t want to have Carter back, there is no benefit to buying him out as he’s on a 35-plus contract while the veteran also has a full no-move clause.

More from the Metropolitan:

  • Still with Pittsburgh, winger Rickard Rakell has declined an invitation to play at the upcoming World Championship, relays Seth Rorabaugh of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (Twitter link). The 29-year-old had a bounce-back year with 28 goals and 32 assists but is dealing with some minor health issues.  Meanwhile, winger Jake Guentzel will suit up for the United States in the event.  The 28-year-old was third on the Penguins in scoring this season with 36 goals and 37 assists.
  • Capitals center Nic Dowd told reporters including NHL.com’s Tom Gulitti (Twitter link) that he was playing through a couple of injuries and a decision about whether he’ll need surgery will be made within the next couple of weeks. Despite playing through the injuries at the end, the 32-year-old had a career year this season, setting new benchmarks in goals (13) and points (25) despite missing 17 games due to other injuries.  Dowd has two years left on his contract with a $1.3MM AAV.
  • Although their farm team has been eliminated from playoff contention, the Islanders don’t intend to have a full taxi squad for the playoffs, head coach Lane Lambert told Newsday’s Andrew Gross (Twitter link). Teams often carry extra skaters that can be slotted in if need be in either games or practices while it’s typically beneficial for them to continue to work under the eye of team trainers.  For the time being at least, New York will opt to go without a full group of reserves although it wouldn’t be surprising to see a handful of players be brought up as insurance.

Penguins Milestones: Guentzel, Heinen

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Very early into the Pittsburgh Penguins game against the Montreal Canadiens, Jake Guentzel scored 21 seconds into the game, which is the 400th point of his career. Guentzel now has 189 goals, and 211 assists through 437 career games, all spent in Pittsburgh. Originally a third-round pick of the Penguins back in 2018, Guentzel quickly became one of the top forwards on the team. Scoring 33 points in 40 games in his rookie 2016-17 season, Guentzel helped the Penguins secure their second Stanley Cup in as many years.

Another player on the Penguins marking a big milestone tonight is forward Danton Heinen, who has now played in 400 games in the NHL. Originally drafted in the fourth round of the 2014 NHL by the Boston Bruins, Heinen has become a decent depth scorer in the league. His best year came during the 2017-18 season, scoring 47 points in 77 games for Boston. A couple of years later, as his production declined, he was traded to the Anaheim Ducks for forward Nick Ritchie. As his time in Anaheim came to an end, he finally made his way to Pittsburgh, scoring 24 goals and 27 assists in 128 career games for the Penguins.

Injury Notes: Palat, Guentzel, Zucker

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The New Jersey Devils will be without forward Ondrej Palat tonight as they look to avenge their home-opener loss to the Detroit Red Wings, according to the team. The team noted Palat has a lower-body injury and did not list a timeline.

Palat played over 20 minutes in last night’s game against the Washington Capitals, and it’s unclear as to when he suffered the injury. 23-year-old Fabian Zetterlund, who has an assist in his only NHL appearance this season (which came against the Red Wings), will draw in tonight.

  • Jake Guentzel will remain out with an ear injury for the third straight game tonight, according to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Guentzel had five points in four games before going down with the injury against the Los Angeles Kings on October 20. His status remains day-to-day, and Danton Heinen will continue to sub in for Guentzel on the team’s top line.
  • The Penguins also noted that forward Jason Zucker will miss tonight’s game against the Calgary Flames and that his status is day-to-day. In his place, 2019 first-round pick Samuel Poulin will make his NHL debut. Zucker was also in the midst of a strong start, notching six points through six games.

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