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Eastern Notes: Toronto’s Defense, Prospects, Butcher

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The Toronto Maple Leafs have received plenty of attention this offseason with their moves, including the surprising signing of San Jose veteran Patrick Marleau to a three-year deal. Add Marleau to the young cast of offensive weapons the team already has like Auston Matthews, Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk, William Nylander and Mitch Marner, the team has hopes of making a run towards a Stanley Cup Finals this season.

However, Steve Simmons of the Toronto Sun is quick to point out that the Maple Leafs need to emphasize defense too. He writes that many people have forgotten that the team finished 22nd in goals against last year. Every team that finished behind them didn’t make the playoffs. And when you look at the moves the team made, very little of it was to help the defense. The team did sign 36-year-old Ron Hainsey, but how much will that help? He’s 36 years old.

Simmons writes that Toronto leadership knows the importance of defense. Coach Mike Babcock, who has won a Stanley Cup in 2008 with the Detroit Red Wings, had a team that was first in goals against that year. General Manager Lou Lamoriello won his last Stanley Cup with the New Jersey Devils in 2003, they were also first in goals against.

However, the team’s defense should be stronger. The team boasts a number of young, developing defensemen like Nikita Zaitsev, who is just 25 years old. Morgan Rielly is only 23 years old. Jake Gardiner is 27. Martin Marincin is 25 as well, while Connor Carrick is 23. That’s a young defense and maybe a major reason why the team brought Hainsey in. However, even with a year of development, how much better can this defense be?

  • With rookie camps just a week away for many teams, Fanrag’s Craig Morgan put together a detailed list of rookies who could make an impact on the team. While it has the usual candidates like Nico Hischier, Nolan Patrick and Clayton Keller, there are quite a few lesser known ones as well. Players like Washington’s Jakub Vrana, New York Islanders’ Ryan Pulock and Columbus’ Pierre-Luc Dubois are players rarely mentioned who could make an impact this year.
  • Sports Illustrated featured New Jersey Devils Will Butcher after he chose the Devils last weekend. Butcher claims he sees similarities in his game to three NHL players including Chicago’s Duncan Keith, Boston’s Torey Krug and New Jersey’s Andy Greene. ”If I was fortunate to make the big team, he would be a great mentor to me, just because he does everything,” Butcher said of Greene. ”He penalty kills, power play, all situations. He is a smart player, not necessarily the biggest guy, but he uses his abilities to defend well and play the game of hockey.”

Predators’ Draft Plummet

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If the Nashville Predators are ever to win a Stanley Cup, this seems the most likely year. Their window is far from closing, to be sure. But for a team that doesn’t often spend to the cap, their long-term finances may become complicated. They have a multitude of players performing well above their contract levels, are benefiting from Entry-Level Contracts (Viktor Arvidsson and Kevin Fiala), and the bulk of their team is in their late twenties. Nashville isn’t the most dynamic offensive force, but have gotten enough scoring  this outing to support the absurdly good top-four defense and brilliant goaltending from Pekka Rinne (.951 SV%).

That said, if they fail to win the glorious prize at the end of four series, will their draft plummet be seen as worth the hassle? They finished with the West’s lowest seeding in Wild Card 2, and the worst overall record in the playoffs at 94 points, edging out the Calgary Flames and Toronto Maple Leafs. Their draft plummet is quite the precarious one, similar to the 8th seeded 2011-12 Los Angeles Kings in the entry draft. Of course, that team went 16-4 in the postsesason to win the Stanley Cup, and certainly didn’t mind sacrificing a higher first-round pick to win their franchise’s first title.

But what if they hadn’t won? By advancing to the post-season’s final four, Los Angeles automatically shifted from drafting 16th to 30th. If the Predators were to lose in the Conference Finals, it would mean a drop from 17th to 28th. A Finals loss would mean 30th. Obviously, fans aren’t concerned with these sorts of trivialities when rooting on their team to glory, nor necessarily should they be. However, for management, this is quite the potential concern. Finding failure late in the playoffs and then also suffering the sting of a draft position dive is tough to stomach. After all, deals can sometimes hinge on whether a first or second round pick is early, mid, or late round.

For reference, let us look at the last 10 years draft history with regard to the 17th and 28th selections to see the potential disparity:

2016: 17th D Dante Fabbro (NSH), 28th F Lucas Johannson (WSH)

2015: 17th F Kyle Connor (WPG), 28th F Anthony Beauvillier (NYI)

2014: 17th D Travis Sanheim (PHI), 28th Josh Ho-Sang (NYI)

2013: 17th F Curtis Lazar (OTT), 28th F Morgan Klimchuck (CGY)

2012: 17th F Tomas Hertl (SJ), 28th D Brady Skjei (NYR)

2011: 17th F Nathan Beaulieu (MTL), 28th F Zach Phillips (MIN)

2010: 17th F Joey Hison (COL), 28th F Charlie Coyle (MIN)

2009: 17th D David Rundblad (STL), 28th F Dylan Olsen (TBL)

2008: 17th D Jake Gardiner (ANA), 28th F Viktor Tikhonov (PHX)

2007: 17th F Alexei Cherepanov (NYR), 28th Nick Petrecki (SJ)

The jury is still completely out on last year’s draft class, but as you can see, the two prior years have worked out quite well for the New York Islanders at the 28th spot. Beauvillier and Ho-Sang have both developed into studs quite quickly, while Connor and Sanheim still have a lot to prove. As we look at the last decade of entry drafts, there seems to be no real discernible advantage in terms of NHL projection. So although 11 spots seems like an awful long way to drop, Nashville (and any other future conference finalists) can rest easy that their relative success will still hinge upon being able to scout and develop talent properly.

Toronto’s Roman Polak Out For Playoffs

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Toronto’s Roman Polak suffered a brutal hit at the hands of Washington’s Brooks Orpik. Polak attempted to sidestep the brunt of the hit and ended up with severe knee-on-knee contact. Worse, when Polak landed, his stricken right knee buckled and caught under the weight of his body. Polak remained down on the ice in gut-wrenching pain for well over a minute before being helped off the ice by players. TSN reports that Polak will no longer be available for Toronto in these playoffs, which throws a massive question mark onto the team’s backend.

Polak has not been a particularly phenomenal defenseman in terms of analytics this season. His physical play and ability to stay healthy have arguably been his greatest assets to the team. His Corsi For % – simply, shot attempts for versus against when he is on the ice – is an abysmal 41% on the season. For reference, Jake Gardiner’s is 52.6%, Morgan Rielly’s is 50.4%, the injured Nikita Zaitsev’s is 49.4%, and Matt Hunwick’s is 49.1%. Each of the aforementioned Leafs have definitely contributed to leading the team back into the post-season. Toronto was a dismal 23rd in Goals Allowed this season, but notably better than the previous, where they were 28th, surpassed only by Calgary (who inexplicably made the playoffs that year) and Edmonton who were McDavid-less for a long stretch of time.

Toronto needs to keep pucks out of the net against the high-octane offense of Washington if they are to win this series. So far in the series, Babcock’s defensive strategies have been relatively effective. They held even in hits with Washington through a double overtime game – 50 a piece. They blocked 35 shots in Game 2, and forced plays to the outside whenever possible. And when the chances became glorious, Frederik Andersen was there to shut the play down. Although they surrendered 44 shots and 50 shots in each respective game, many of these chances did not come from high-scoring areas. In a series where Toronto’s defense was expected to be overwhelmed, they have held fast in the absence of Zaitsev. Still, Leafs’ fans are longing for his quick return to play in hopes of taking advantage of the next two raucous home games at the Air Canada Centre. The 23-year-old Connor Carrick and 25-year-old Martin Marincin both look capable of filling some of the void left by Polak – they each averaged over 16 minutes per game in the regular season.

Toronto Notes: Andersen, Matthews

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Leafs goalie Frederik Andersen has “no symptoms” of a concussion, but will sit tonight’s game against Blue Jackets, according to coach Mike Babcock. The goaltender is expected to start Game 1 of the playoffs.

Andersen, who was hit by Pittsburgh’s Tom Sestito who ironically was back for his first game after serving a four-game suspension for a hit against Tobias Enstrom, hit Andersen in a fly-by. Initial belief was he had suffered a concussion. Backup Curtis McElhinney took over in Saturday’s game and is expected to get the start with recent callup Garret Sparks to take backup duties.

Other Toronto notes …

  • When rookie Auston Matthews scored his 40th goal Saturday, an empty netter with three seconds remaining that clinched the Maple Leafs a playoff spot, it put the teenager into rare company. The 19-year-old rookie is now the fourth rookie-teenager in NHL history to score 40 goals. He joins elite company next to Dale Hawerchuk (45 goals at 18 years of age in 1981-82), Mario Lemieux (43 goals at 19 years of age in 1984-85) and Sylvain Turgeon (40 goals at 19 years in 1983-84). Matthews had previously broken the American-born rookie scoring record when he recorded his 39th goal Monday.
  • Dave McCarthy of NHL.com reports the Leafs will have nine players play 82 games this year, a testament to their health and one reason for the team’s success this year in reaching the playoffs. Matthews, Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk, Connor Brown, Leo Komarov, Zach Hyman, Jake Gardiner, Matt Martin, Nikita Zaitsev have played all 81 games so far and are expected to play tonight. William Nylander is only at 80 games.

 

Maple Leafs’ Morgan Rielly Day-To-Day With Right Knee Injury

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January 18 – 11:20am: Rielly is considered day-to-day, according to Kevin McGran of the Toronto Star. Frankie Corrado will draw into the lineup in his place.

7:35pm: Per Shilton’s tweet, Rielly will not be returning tonight due to a lower body injury.

It’s yet another knee injury for a key player. The Toronto Maple Leafs lost defenseman Morgan Rielly after he fell awkwardly and appeared to injure his knee. He returned to the ice after being checked out, but according to Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston, he left the ice again minutes later. TSN’s Kristen Shilton confirmed that Rielly did in fact return only to leave again. She adds that he was limping back to the dressing room, and earlier, had signaled for help from the ice after getting hurt. Finally, Michael Augello tweets that it was Rielly’s right knee that was injured.

James Mirtle tweets that all eyes will be on Rielly’s right knee as he tore his ACL in juniors.  Rielly has 17 points (1-16) in 41 games this season and has been strong on the blue line for the Leafs this season. He is second in points on the team for defensemen, behind only Jake Gardiner who has 22 points (6-16). Rielly leads all skaters in average ice time, logging nearly 23 minutes (22:51) per night.

Part of the youth anchoring the Leafs rise in the standings, Rielly missing a significant amount of time would be devastating for Toronto.

The story will be updated as more information is released.

Monday Morning Recalls And Demotions

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10:23am: TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that Mike Babcock announced that Tyler Bozak and Ben Smith are both considered day-to-day with a lower-body injury and an upper-body injury respectively.

In Nashville, the Predators have recalled defenseman Adam Pardy from the AHL, as P.K. Subban will be out of the lineup. Subban did not accompany the Predators on their current two-game road trip.

9:53am: A couple Ontario-based NHL teams have made roster moves on Monday morning.

The Ottawa Senators have assigned Casey Bailey and Ben Harpur to the Binghamton Senators of the AHL, according to Bruce Garrioch. The right-winger Bailey was held pointless in two games with the Senators, but has 14 points in 25 games with the AHL’s Senators. Harper appeared in one game and was also held pointless. The defenseman has three assists in 20 AHL games this season. Garrioch reports that the demotions were made because Fredrik Claesson is ready to return after suffering a lower-body injury earlier this month.

The Senators are not skating on Monday, so it’s not yet known how severe Andrew Hammond’s injury is. Hammond left Sunday night’s game just 16 minutes in with an apparent ankle injury. Should the Hamburglar be unable to go, Garrioch suggests that Matt O’Connor would get the call. Starting goaltender Craig Anderson is away from the team to be with his wife Nicholle, and is not expected back before Christmas.

Over to Toronto, where the Maple Leafs have announced the recall of center Frederik Gauthier. In a related move, injured defenseman Martin Marincin has been placed on injured reserve. Marincin is expected to be out for four-to-six weeks after sustaining a lower-body injury last week. Gauthier has four points in 16 games with the Toronto Marlies of the AHL. The Athletic’s David Alter reports Gauthier is centering the fourth line at practice on Monday morning.

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The Maple Leafs are without three regulars at practice this morning; defenseman Jake Gardiner, Tyler Bozak and Ben Smith were all missing, so Alter wonders if that explains Gauthier’s recall. Much-scratched defenseman Frankie Corrado was bounced between pairings throughout practice but will be in the lineup when the Maple Leafs host former coach Randy Carlyle and the Anaheim Ducks on Monday night.

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