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Jake Gardiner

Poll: Is Tyson Barrie A Significant Upgrade Over Jake Gardiner?

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While most people look at the Toronto Maple Leafs’ acquisition of Tyson Barrie as a major plus when the team picked up the lead defenseman and Alex Kerfoot for Nazem Kadri and Calle Rosen on July 1, there are other analytics experts who suggest that the addition of Barrie isn’t much, if any improvements over Jake Gardiner, who the team has allowed to walk away in free agency.

Of course, Barrie looks like an impressive upgrade, especially when you look at his offensive numbers. Barrie scored 14 goals and 59 points last season and posted 57 points the previous year, giving Toronto another top-notch offensive defenseman next to Morgan Rielly. Gardiner was a second-pairing defenseman whose offense disappeared last year with 30 points, even though he posted 52 points the previous season. However, only one player, Barrie or Rielly, can get those first-line power play minutes and there is no guarantee that Barrie will be able to pry those minutes away from Rielly next season, suggesting that Barrie’s number’s could drop quite a bit. In fact, two goals and 23 assists came off the power play last season where Barrie was the team’s quarterback of the first power play unit.

However, analytics suggest that Gardiner, despite his struggles might prove to be a better blueliner, especially defensively. While Toronto is an offensive juggernaut, Gardiner still had a plus-19 rating in plus-minus, while there are some questions about how good a defender Barrie is. In Colorado, Barrie posted a minus-3 on an Avalanche squad that made the playoffs last season and a minus-19 the previous year, when they were a playoff team as well. While plus-minus might be considered to be an unreliable fact, Gardiner has been solid for Toronto despite the fact receiving Toronto fans wrath for years. He has averaged over 21:48 of ATOI over the past three years and in those three years ranks 23rd in the league in points with 125. In goals above replacement (GAR), which is an all-encompassing stat to evaluate skaters, Gardiner ranked 17th among defenseman last year and fifth in the league at even strength, according to evolving-hockey.com. Barrie ranked 50th last season and 66th at even strength.

However, Gardiner’s value seems to have dropped. Despite being considered one of the top defensive free agents on the unrestricted free agent market, Gardiner remains unsigned with rumors he’s seeking $7MM per season. While a change in scenery might have been needed for Gardiner, it doesn’t necessarily mean that Barrie will be the better player.

So, is Barrie a significant upgrade over Gardiner?

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Snapshots: Sabres, Gardiner, Tkachyov

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Few have criticized the Sabres’ side of the recent Henri Jokiharju–Alexander Nylander trade, but it’s a fact that Buffalo is overflowing with defenders after acquiring the young right-hander from the Chicago Blackhawks. As Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News’ points out, the Sabres still have needs to fill up front and they could use their defensive depth to do so. Lysowski writes that Buffalo has ample cap space to make an addition at forward, but there are few ideal candidates left on the free agent market and the team may as well use their surplus of blue liners to swing a deal. Jokiharju is safe, as are fellow recent additions Brandon Montour and Colin Miller and 2017 No. 1 pick Rasmus Dahlin. RFA Jake McCabe is not likely to be dealt, but a potential candidate and injury-prone Zach Bogosian and overpaid veteran Matt Hunwick might be hard to move. That would seemingly leave Rasmus Ristolainen, a fixture on the rumor mill, Marco Scandella, and Casey Nelson as the most likely names to be dealt and it would not be a surprise if more than one ends up elsewhere. The Sabres are certainly not done making moves this summer.

  • Of course, this makes Buffalo just one of a surprising number of teams not biting on Jake Gardiner this summer. PHR’s top-ranked UFA defenseman, Gardiner remains unsigned more than a week after the market opened. NBC Sports’ Scott Billeck reports that Gardiner is seeking $7MM annually in his next year, which is likely pricing himself out of the range that many D-needy teams are looking for. It’s hard to argue that Gardiner was not the best available defenseman when free agency opened, but he’s also not a top-pair defenseman by most metrics and teams aren’t willing to shell out right now simply due to a weak market. Billeck names the Winnipeg Jets as a team that could use Gardiner, but can’t afford him at his current asking price. The Montreal Canadiens, Detroit Red Wings, and his own Toronto Maple Leafs also fit that description. Billeck feels the New Jersey Devils could be the leading candidate to land Gardiner right now, but there really aren’t many clear fits for the defender at this time unless he changes his expectations.
  • Despite flirting with a jump to the NHL for several years, Vladimir Tkachyov has decided to re-sign in the KHL once again. SKA St. Petersburg has announced an extension with the young scorer. Tkachyov, 23, has been a solid offensive contributor for the past several years but the best may still be yet to come. The winger was acquired by SKA last month from Salavat Yulaev Ufa for the rights to Nikita Soshnikov, who has since signed in Ufa, and Tkachyov could be set for some career-highs with the perennial contenders in St. Petersburg. It is a two-year contract with SKA, so Tkachyov has a couple more years to further prove he is a formidable forward, and could very well drawn NHL attention once again in 2021.

Metropolitan Notes: Devils Moves, Flyers Roster, Backstrom

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There still remains a number of intriguing free agents available on the open market, including Jake Gardiner, Ryan Dzingel and Micheal Ferland. However, despite having $20.77MM in projected cap space remaining on their roster, it’s unlikely the New Jersey Devils will be adding one of them unless their asking price drops significantly, according to The Athletic’s Corey Masisak (subscription required).

That cap number is somewhat deceiving as New Jersey has several restricted free agents they must deal with, including Pavel Zacha, Will Butcher, Mirco Mueller and Connor Carrick, amongst others. No player should walk away with too significant a deal, meaning the Devils would have the cap space to sign one of those free agents, but that still seems unlikely. The team already made their major moves earlier, trading for P.K. Subban and signing winger Wayne Simmonds in free agency. That, however, doesn’t mean they are done making moves.

“I made some calls,” Shero. “This week will be the same thing, and we certainly would want to see what’s out there, if there’s a chance as we go into the summertime and the rest of the summer into training camp.”

  • Sam Carchidi of Philly.com comes up with an early projection of the Philadelphia Flyers’ lineup with one interesting hole on the team’s third line. The scribe pencils in Nolan Patrick centering Oskar Lindblom, but lists the other wing position to a mystery man, likely to be battled during training camp. He notes that there are two logical candidates to win the role including veteran Scott Laughton as well as youngsters Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee. The 20-year-old Frost, a 2017 first-rounder, wrapped up his junior career last season and combined for 79 goals and 221 points over his last two years for the Soo Greyhounds of the OHL. The 19-year-old Farabee, a 2018 first-rounder, signed with the Flyers after one season with Boston University in which he scored 17 goals and 36 points in 37 games.
  • While the discussions of whether the Washington Capitals will be able to retain goaltender Braden Holtby after next season has been discussed, the Washington Capitals have another significant free agent as well next offseason in Niklas Backstrom. The Washington Post’s Barry Svrluga suggests that the Capitals are almost certainly going to find a way to bring the veteran center back. Backstrom will be 32 by then, but has been such an integral piece to the first line next to Alexander Ovechkin, that it seems inconceivable the team will allow the veteran to walk away, especially without a young center waiting in the wings, which Washington does not have. Backstrom is still putting up solid numbers as he scored 22 goals and 74 points last season.

Poll: Where Will Jake Gardiner Sign?

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Usually, within the first few days of free agency, the majority of the top players are off the market.  It’s rare that one of the top players at a particular position is still available but that’s the case when it comes to defenseman Jake Gardiner.

The 29-year-old was slotted sixth in our Top 50 UFA Rankings with a projection to have the highest AAV of any blueliner to actually make it to the open market.  That could certainly still happen but so far, there haven’t been many teams linked to him.

There are likely a couple of reasons for that.  For starters, the back injury that caused him to miss some time is something that teams will be leery about when considering whether or not to commit a long-term deal to him.  On top of that, he’s also coming off a quieter year offensively as he scored just three goals in 62 games while his 0.48 point per game average was his lowest in three years.

Nonetheless, he remains the only defenseman still out there that is basically a lock to play in a top-four role next season.  There are quite a few teams that still have a vacancy to fill in that slot as well but at this point, it’s reasonable to infer that his market isn’t quite as bullish as it was thought to be just a few days ago.  It has been suggested previously that he’d like to return to Toronto but given their movement so far this offseason and what’s still to come, that doesn’t appear to be a likely outcome even if his asking price comes down.

There are now two important questions when it comes to Gardiner.  How much has his stock dropped and where will he wind up signing?  Have your say on the latter of the two by choosing where you think he will sign by voting in the poll below.

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Poll: Which Top Free Agent Will Be Next To Sign?

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Call it a frenzy, call it a feast, but don’t call it finished. Free agency got off to a flying start on Monday (or perhaps, on Sunday evening) when names like Artemi Panarin, Sergei Bobrovsky and Matt Duchene all inked expensive, long-term deals. A plethora of other signings soon followed and many teams used up all the cap space they had. But then, as the evening rolled around on July 1, everything slowed. The Toronto Maple Leafs and Colorado Avalanche were busy introducing their newest players after a substantial trade, but the second tier of free agents were unheard from.

Now, two days later, we still haven’t seen much movement on the remaining names. Eight of our top 25 names are still out there waiting to find out where they’ll play in 2019-20, with few rumors giving any indication. Perhaps there is a wave of signings coming, or perhaps many of these names will have to wait until some of the top restricted free agents finalize their deals. After all, many teams around the league are stuck wondering how much the likes of Mitch Marner, Brayden Point, Matthew Tkachuk, Charlie McAvoy and (and, and, and) others will make coming out of their entry-level deals.

So who will be next off the board? Jake Gardiner is our top ranked free agent left, and the best defenseman available even with his injury concerns from last season. Micheal Ferland, Ryan Dzingel and Marcus Johansson all provide some offensive punch at forward, while veterans like Justin Williams and Joe Thornton are still unsigned by their former clubs. Who will be the next to go, and when will it finally happen?

Cast your vote below and let us know where you think they’re going in the comments:

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Free Agent Focus: Toronto Maple Leafs

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Free agency is now just a few days away and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. Toronto has already locked up a few important names, but still has plenty of work to do before knowing what next season’s roster will look like. Here’s a closer look at their free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agent: F Mitch Marner — If this article had been written yesterday this section would have included the likes of Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson, but it always all came down to Marner. The entire Maple Leafs’ offseason is revolving around him at the moment, with the uncertainty of when Toronto will sign his next contract. That is of course if it’s signed at all by the Maple Leafs, as offer sheet speculation has never been as high as it seems to be regarding the 22-year old star. A huge part of that speculation is the market he plays in, but Marner is reportedly seeking a huge raise that would make him one of the (if not the) highest paid wingers in the league.

There’s good reason for Marner to believe in himself and his abilities. The undersized forward dominated the OHL before and after the Maple Leafs selected him fourth overall in 2015, and he began his NHL career without missing a step. 61 points his first season, 69 his second and a whopping 94 points in 2018-19 made him one of the most lethal offensive weapons in the game, even if that last jump was at least in part due to the addition of John Tavares. Not only is Marner an incredible playmaker, but he also took on a penalty killing role with the Maple Leafs this season and became one of head coach Mike Babcock’s most trusted defensive forwards.

None of the reports and rumors from either side mean much to GM Kyle Dubas and Marner’s agent Darren Ferris, who need to work out a deal at some point if the Maple Leafs are going to proceed with the rest of their offseason. The team currently has just $6.9MM in cap space but can exceed the limit during the offseason or move Nathan Horton to long-term injured reserve. That still doesn’t leave much room for free agent additions because, as Dubas told Chris Johnston of Sportsnet today, they “have got to save space for Mitch.”

Other RFAs: F Michael Carcone

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: D Jake Gardiner — If the Maple Leafs had more cap space there is no doubt that they would be trying to keep Gardiner in town, given the state of their defense corps without him. Even though he’s not the right-handed option they so desperately need, his depature—and the potential trade of Nikita Zaitsev—could leave them with just three proven NHL options in the whole organization in Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin and Travis Dermott. That’s a horrendous position to be in, even if it is with several months remaining before the start of the year. Gardiner though will likely be priced out of the Maple Leafs’ range given his history as a top puck-moving option. Though he is derided by many for the occasional what-was-he-thinking giveaway, Gardiner has amassed 245 points in his 551 game career including a career-high of 52 in 2017-18. An excellent offensive catalyst at even-strength, he’ll likely earn himself quite the payday on July 1.

D Ron Hainsey — The other big departure from the Maple Leafs blue line is Hainsey, even if he did turn 38 in late March. His agent confirmed that he will continue playing as long as there is interest, and after a +30 season playing alongside Rielly on the top pairing there won’t be any shortage of teams calling. Hainsey is not the offensive player he once was—remember that years ago he was an excellent powerplay quarterback—but he can still contribute and log big minutes in almost every situation. A favorite of Babcock, he could sign a bonus-laden deal if teams aren’t willing to give him a second year.

F Tyler Ennis — Perhaps overlooked for the Maple Leafs this year because of their star-studded forward group, Ennis took a minimum salary contract in order to try and build his value back up and he did it wonderfully. Even fighting through an injury that limited him to 51 games, the undersized forward scored 12 goals from the fourth line and showed he can still play at the NHL level. A three-time 20-goal scorer, the 29-year old Ennis should secure another NHL deal to provide a little scoring depth at a relatively inexpensive price—but probably one the Maple Leafs can’t afford.

Other UFAs: D Igor Ozhiganov, D Martin Marincin, F Gabriel Gagne, F Chris Mueller, F Nicholas Baptiste, D Vincent LoVerde, D Jordan Subban, D Steven Oleksy, G Eamon McAdam

Projected Cap Space: The Maple Leafs currently sit a little more than $6.94MM under the cap ceiling according to CapFriendly, but can also put Horton’s $5.3MM deal on long-term injured reserve if necessary to give them some more flexibility. That number is only including the cap hits for 18 players however, meaning they actually have even less than that once they decide who will be making the roster.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Canucks Not Expected To Qualify Ben Hutton

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A weak free agent market for defensemen may be getting an unexpected major addition. With the deadline to qualify restricted free agents arriving tomorrow, teams are down to the last minute to extend offers to retain their young RFA’s. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that the Vancouver Canucks are not planning to make that offer to one of their top defensemen, Ben Hutton. If Hutton is not qualified, he will become an unrestricted free agent and would jump to the top of the list available defenders in terms of ice time and arguably all-around role last season.

According to Friedman, the Canucks and Hutton had not come close to an extension as of yet and the team was worried about a possible arbitration award for the capable defenseman. Vancouver has ample cap space heading into the off-season, but need to re-sign Brock Boeser and were already rumored to be in the market for a top free agent defenseman. The team clearly prefers spending money on the existing UFA blue liners more than retaining Hutton, as his departure will only exacerbate their need for help on defense. Top free agent options Jake Gardiner and Tyler Myers are surely to be targets of the team now, if they weren’t already.

Hutton will get his money from another team, if not the Canucks. The 26-year-old University of Maine product recorded 20 points this season, his third year of 19+ points in four NHL seasons, and set a career high with 22:21 ATOI. A reliable two-way contributor, Hutton’s defensive game has also grown and Vancouver relied on him in all situations last season. Few available defenseman can eat minutes and play competently at even strength, man-up, and man-down to the degree that Hutton did last year, so he will likely draw considerable interest if and when he hits the market.

Pacific Notes: Myers, Kings Qualifying Offers, Puljujarvi, Thompson

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With reports that the Vancouver Canucks intend to focus their sites on adding a top-level defenseman in free agency, its looks like general manager Jim Benning has made it clear who is at the top of his wishlist as Sportsnet’s Rick Dhaliwal reports that Vancouver expects to meet with unrestricted free agent Tyler Myers today, the first day teams can speak to unrestricted free agents.

Myers, who has played with the Winnipeg Jets for the past five years, is one of the top three unrestricted free agent defensemen along with Toronto’s Jake Gardiner and Montreal’s Jordie Benn. The 29-year-old could add some offense as he tallied nine goals and 31 points last season in Winnipeg. The 6-foot-8, 229-pound blueliner would give the team a solid top-four defenseman for the Canucks, who have lacked a solid top-four for years. Myers, along with a full season of 2018 first-rounder Quinn Hughes, could help bolster the team’s defense for a long time if the Canucks can convince him to sign with them.

  • The Los Angeles Times’ Curtis Zupke reports that the Los Angeles Kings will tender qualifying offers to Alex Iafallo, Adrian Kempe, Michael Amadio, Daniel Brickley, Calvin Petersen, Sheldon Rempal and Matt Roy. No surprises there. He adds the team also does not intend to make qualifying offers to Nikita Scherbak, Alex Lintuniemi, Matteson Iacopelli and Pavel Jenys. Scherbak, who was claimed off waivers from Montreal, struggled after coming over to the Kings, while Lintuniemi has been passed by a number of Kings defenseman on their depth chart after the former second-round pick finished the season in Ontario in the AHL with a minus-30 rating.
  • The Edmonton Journal’s Kurt Leavins reports that the Edmonton Oilers haven’t had much success so far in trying to trade winger Jesse Puljujarvi, who has asked for a trade, and had been shopped at the NHL Entry Draft Friday and Saturday. Edmonton has already made it clear they do not intend to trade him away for nothing and supposedly are asking for quite a bit. Leavins writes that they did talk to Pittsburgh Penguins general manager Jim Rutherford, but he balked at the asking price, which was winger Bryan Rust. Puljujarvi, a restricted free agent, has made it clear if he isn’t traded, he will play in Europe.
  • Sportsnet’s John Shannon reports that the Toronto Maple Leafs are considering Chicago Wolves head coach Rocky Thompson to join Mike Babcock’s staff this upcoming season. Thompson, who led Chicago to the Calder Cup Finals in the AHL this season, has been considered a candidate to move to the NHL. Toronto has lost two assistant coaches this offseason. D.J. Smith was hired as the Ottawa Senators head coach, while Jim Hiller left the team to join Lou Lamoriello and Barry Trotz with the New York Islanders. No word on whether the Vegas Golden Knights will release him from his contract.

Toronto Maple Leafs Closing In On Extension With Andreas Johnsson

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Sunday: The Toronto Sun’s Terry Korshan reports that Dubas confirmed the Johnsson contract is nearly done. “They’re right at the finish line, we just have to punch them across, which will be nice,” said Dubas (via The Athletic’s Jonas Siegel).

Saturday: With news of the Toronto Maple Leafs closing in on a contract with restricted free agent forward Kasperi Kapanen, TSN’s Darren Dreger now reports that the Maple Leafs are also close to signing restricted free agent forward Andreas Johnsson to a four-year extension somewhere between $3.25MM and $3.5MM.

While the team has a number of issues to deal with, namely trying to work on a long-term deal with restricted free agent Mitch Marner, the team seems to be proactive in working out deals with both Kapanen and Johnsson, both who have proven to be key top-six wingers for the team this season. After two successful seasons with the Toronto Marlies, the 24-year-old broke out with a 20-goal, 43-point season this year. There also was plenty of discussion that both Johnsson and Kapanen could be prime candidates for other teams to sign to offer sheets, but it looks like both players were more interested in staying in the fold in Toronto.

With cap room being a significant issue, there was plenty of talk that Johnsson or Kapanen could be used as trade bait to eventually send off some cap room. However, the Maple Leafs did free up some of that cap room when they traded away Patrick Marleau and his $6.25MM contract to Carolina earlier today and instead of one of their young restricted free agents, sent a condictional first-rounder to Carolina instead. With Marleau’s contract off the books, that money can now be used to sign both Kapanen and Johnsson, although both deals could be held up until they can sign Marner. The team still will likely have to move other contracts with rumors suggesting the team is considering shipping out forwards Connor Brown and possibly even center Nazem Kadri, in order to get all three under contract and that doesn’t even factor the team’s hope they can still sign unrestricted free agent defenseman Jake Gardiner to an extension.

Free Agency Notes: Edler, Hayes, Pavelski, Krug

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When Alex Edler asked Vancouver not to move him at the NHL Trade Deadline, many assumed it was precursor to an extension between the long-time Canuck and his team. Yet, as the weeks have passed and no resolution has emerged, that expectation grew less and less certain. Now, after a month or so of reports that term and expansion protection were coming between the two sides, it seems the deal is dead and Edler will hit the open market. Sportsnet’s Rick Dhaliwal reports that it does not sound like the Canucks and Edler will get a deal done by July 1st. This does not entirely rule out a return to Vancouver, but it will be substantially harder to convince him to come back after he’s tested the waters and likely found teams willing to give him the desired term and No-Movement Clause. This especially rings true today, as Erik Karlsson’s extension leaves a thin defense market even weaker and D-needy teams will have little choice but to meet the demands of Edler and fellow top free agents like Jake Gardiner and Tyler Myers. It would not be surprise to now see Vancouver make a hard push for one of those two as well, as they seek an upgrade on the blue line but were not willing to give the 33-year-old Edler a long-term deal or risk losing young players to protect an aging veteran in the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft.

  • It’s been a roller coaster of reports on Kevin Hayes since the moment his negotiating rights were acquired by the Philadelphia Flyers from the Winnipeg Jets. The Flyers obviously became the favorite to sign the free agent center given their early access, but there have since been reports followed by other conflicting reports about how talks have been going between the two sides. Finally, trusted Flyers source Frank Seravalli of TSN has chimed in and he has only good news for Philly fans. Seravalli reports that the two sides have made good progress and that talks are trending toward a contract. He stops short of guaranteeing a deal gets done, but believes that it will. This would remove yet another major name from the free agent market, following Karlsson, Jeff Skinner, and Jordan Eberle. And like those three, reports of a deal being close have so far been proven true this off-season.
  • The sheer magnitude of Karlsson’s new contract with the Sharks has surprised many and has reinforced the narrative that San Jose will have to lose other key free agents to re-sign the talented defenseman. While he wouldn’t speak specifically about talks with those players, GM Doug Wilson did warn not to make assumptions when asked about Joe Pavelski, per The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz. Wilson says that nothing has been ruled out, making a Pavelski return a possibility. He also spoke to the importance of getting Karlsson under contract “well before July 1st”, specifically so that the team can plan around their new salary cap paradigm. It still remains a long-shot barring trades to remove salary from the current roster, but until Pavelski, a career Shark, puts pen to paper elsewhere, he remains a possibility for San Jose.
  • Boston defenseman Torey Krug will not be a free agent until next summer, but he has already proven that he is worth a significant raise in his next contract. The Bruins’ power play magician is fifth among all NHL defensemen in regular season scoring over the past three years and second only to Erik Karlsson in playoff scoring. Karlsson’s new extension, along with the contracts of players like John Carlson and Victor Hedman, raise the bar for what Krug might be looking for in his next deal. Even though he has some struggles defensively, it is fair to assume that his current $5.25MM cap hit will not cut it. This leaves the Bruins in a difficult spot, as they must first re-sign elite young defensemen Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo this summer. Those moves will leave Boston with little cap space this off-season and not much more the following year when Krug needs a new contract. Yet, speaking with the media today, GM Don Sweeney made it clear that his intent is not to trade the mobile defender, nor to let him leave after next season:

If somebody blew us away (with a trade offer for Krug), every player has to be looked at in that way. When you’re an organization, you just have to, you’re doing a disservice if you don’t. But it would take a pretty unique opportunity for us to part with Torey. We think he’s a big part of the fabric of our group. He’s kind of that next wave of leadership that we talk about.

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