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Jake Allen

Allen’s Latest: Playoff Surprises, Second Round Predictions

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The USA Today’s Kevin Allen listed his playoff surprises as teams advanced into the second round. His biggest surprise is a take shared by many: the four game sweep of the Chicago Blackhawks. He wonders if they’ve “run out of magic” and comments that the team looked worn out. He also believes that Stan Bowman will be a man of his word and certainly look to tweak the roster. The house cleanings in Buffalo, and Los Angeles certainly caught Allen (and others) by surprise. He believes that the recently fired Dean Lombardi may be just what Buffalo needs to get over the hump. Allen underscores the importance of Jake Allen in the Blues’ first round triumph, and notes that Alexander Radulov should get a hefty payday after playing well with Montreal. Allen also sees Ryan Johansen as the #1 center the Predators envisioned him to be when they dealt for him last season.

  • Allen mentions Johansen again when he points out the five reasons Nashville shocked Chicago in four games. Besides getting the best of Chicago defensively, he notes that Pekka Rinne rose to the occasion and was next to impossible to beat between the pipes. Rinne posted a staggering .976 save percentage and gave up just three goals in four games. Allen adds that the Predators were also a much deeper team than the one who faced Chicago back in 2015. Finally, strategic moves by head coach Peter Laviolette played a key role in Chicago’s inability to contain the Preds. Focusing on speed, by placing Harry Zolnierczyk and Pontus Aberg into the lineup made the Blackhawks lives miserable trying to keep up.
  • In terms of who will advance to the conference finals, Allen is the only one of his staff who sees the Penguins getting past the Capitals. He believes the Penguins speed will cause matchup problems for Washington, and result in yet another Washington-Pittsburgh tilt that sees the Penguins triumph. Allen has the Rangers meeting the Penguins in the Eastern Conference Final, dispatching the Senators in six games. Over in the West, Allen forecasts an Anaheim-Nashville Western Conference Final, though he thinks both matchups will see seven games, writing that the Nashville-St. Louis series is most likely a toss up.

Snapshots: Krejci, Stevens, Stastny

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Boston’s David Krejci suffered an injury after a knee-on-knee collision with Ottawa’s Chris Wideman. He will not return to the game. There was no call on the ice, although the play easily could have drawn an infraction. The play can be viewed here. Krejci could not put much weight on his leg and looked pained as he left the ice. The Bruin had just returned from a previous, unrelated injury, and was slotted in as the 2nd line center between wingers Drew Stafford and David Backes. Krejci had tallied 54 points in the full 82 games this past season. His team is fighting to stave off elimination at the hands of the Senators, trailing 3-1 in the series. Regardless of the result of the game, there is the possibility for review for Wideman by the Department of Player Safety, especially in light of an equally scary Kadri-on-Ovechkin hit just minutes earlier in the other contest.

  • The Los Angeles Kings are reportedly close to an agreement to hire John Stevens as their new head coach. As noted by colleague Gavin Lee earlier this month, his son, captain of Northwestern (also John Stevens), has drawn interest from management. Stevens (the senior) started out his head coaching career with 6 seasons for the AHL’s Philadelphia Phantoms, culminating in a Calder Cup win in 2004-05 – a season which drew lots of interest due to the NHL lockout of that year. Stevens was promoted to head coach of the Philadelphia Flyers after the following season, serving until he was fired midway through the 2009-10 campaign. Following his firing, that Flyers team then went on to make the Finals after just barely making the post-season under Peter Laviolette. Stevens earned two Stanley Cup rings as assistant coach to Darryl Sutter during the Kings’ championship runs of 2012 and 2014, after his brief (4-game) stint as interim coach for the franchise. Stevens is known for his endearing “players’ coach” personality and rapport with developing younger players. He has an all-time record of 122-111-34 as a head NHL bench boss.
  • Help is apparently on the way for the St. Louis Blues, who still hold a commanding 3-1 lead in their series with the Minnesota Wild. Both Paul Stastny and Jori Lehtera look probable to return to competition in Game 5. Stastny has been out of action since he took a shot from a teammate off the foot a month ago. Lehtera has been out with an apparent illness since April 8th. Stastny potted 40 points in his limited 66 games this season, while Lehtera was less impressive with 22 in 64 games. Both centers will provide depth up the middle for St. Louis, and assistance on faceoffs. Considering how proficient Jake Allen has been so far these playoffs, their contributions on the defensive side of the puck will only make Minnesota’s offensive efforts even tougher. Both players posted average Corsi For just above the mid-line 50%, but each boasts a wealth of playoff experience that is difficult to replace this time of year. Stastny’s post-season consistency in particular should inspire confidence in his ability to contribute to his squad. Ivan Barbashev and Zach Sanford are expected to sit out.

*The original post had incorrectly cited Dennis Wideman as the offender*

Roster Notes: Haula, Lazar, Oduya

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Lineup changes have arrived for the Flames according to Kristen Odland, as the team will attempt to ward off elimination. Matt Stajan and Lance Bouma have both been told to take the night off, as Curtis Lazar and Freddie Hamilton find their way back to the ice. Hamilton had 2 goals and 0 assists in his 26 regular season games, and Lazar had 1 goal and 3 assists in his 37 games played. Neither is obviously expected to provide stellar offense, but instead to spark energy and infuse youth into a lineup which looked gassed in their Game 3 three-goal lead implosion. Lazar had been held pointless in 6 games while dressed for the Senators in the playoffs two seasons ago, though he was fantastic for the Oil Kings in their Memorial Cup run the year prior. This will be Hamilton’s first playoff experience.

  • Blackhawks’ Johnny Oduya has been yanked from the lineup by coach Joel Quenneville for a potentially deciding Game 4. Michal Kempny is expected to take his place. The 26 year-old Czech defenseman had a phenomenally underappreciated season, posting an absurd 56.1% Corsi For. The left-handed shooting defenseman has never played in a playoff game. He had gone unsigned until May of last year, when he was acquired by the organization for depth. He ended up playing 50 games for the Hawks, despite marginal offensive totals. Oduya’s veteran status makes this a surprising move, although his lack of speed and age were starting to show in a series where the Predators’ forecheck was relentless.
  • Erik Haula will not play for the Minnesota Wild tonight in their game against the Blues. Haula was held pointless and registered a -2 through 3 games. Coach Bruce Boudreau did not confirm who would take his spot, as he had been playing on the top unit with Mikko Koivu. This is a surprising move despite his struggles in the series, as the forward had been producing at a decent clip before running into the red-hot Jake Allen. There has been no word as to who will replace his position on the left wing.

Minnesota And The Wild Art Of The 0-2 Comeback

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The Minnesota Wild are in a predicament. They have out-shot their opponent 76-53 through 137 minutes of hockey, created the majority of the scoring chances, and dominated advanced stats. But they are down 0-2 in their series, largely due to the heroics of St. Louis net-minder Jake Allen. Per Elias Sports, teams that go down in a series 2-0 only have a 14.1% chance of winning the series. After all, winning 4 of 5 after is no simple task. This is only made more difficult by the fact that Minnesota lost its home ice advantage and has to split in St. Louis to avoid a sweep.

In Minnesota’s current situation, the main contributing factor to the struggles is a snakebitten offensive core. A few players have been on cold streaks, including captain Mikko Koivu who hasn’t scored in his last 16. Perhaps more important is the strength of St. Louis defense over the last 10 games, only surrendering 21 goals. In order for Minnesota to regain a foothold, one of these trends will need to reverse. A goal per game, even against a prime Patrick Roy, simply isn’t good enough.

All over but the crying, right? Well, not quite. Although a 14.1% chance sounds like a longshot, there are more factors to success than one might consider. PDO can really only trend upwards from here, and the bounces are far more likely to turn than not. There is due reason to suspect the unlikely. Minnesota is intimately familiar with the back of the twine – they finished only 2 behind Pittsburgh at 183 Goals For on the season, despite a roster with far fewer superstar names. Devan Dubnyk actually had a better season than Jake Allen 5v5, and is certainly capable of stealing a game of his own. And St. Louis has had wild swings of fortune just as often as Minnesota has. Minnesota, evidenced by a wonderful Wilderness writeup, was indeed beginning to trend back upward. The team stumbled mightily through early March, but recovered quite nicely in the home stretch – winning their last 4 games in convincing fashion.  By their relatively dominant, but ultimately fruitless, on-ice performances in the first 2 games, one might believe these successes were not aberrations.

If we discount the overblown importance of home ice advantage in modern hockey, the situation seems far more salvageable than many observers might believe. As Bruce Boudreau said, “it’s not as dire as they think.” They just should be sure to win the next one.

Blues Sign Evan Fitzpatrick To Entry-Level Deal

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Sunday is no day of rest for the St. Louis Blues and GM Doug Armstrong, as the team announced this morning that they have come to terms on entry level contract with young goaltender Evan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick was a second-round selection of the team in 2016 from the QMJHL’s Sherbrooke Phoenix. The terms of the deal have not yet been announced.

Though he still has quite a bit of development left to go at age 19, the Blues have to be a bit discouraged with Fitzpatrick’s lack of improvement in 2016-17. The 6’3″ Halifax native was the fourth goalie off the board last year, as the Blues swooped in and used the 59th overall pick on him. Many believed that they had gotten good value for Fitzpatrick, who was coming off a slightly disappointing season as the starter for the Phoenix that had caused him to fall in the pre-draft rankings. Fitzpatrick posted a 3.42 GAA and .896 SV% in 54 games for Sherbrooke in 2015-16, but his play significantly increased in the QMJHL playoffs, and perhaps Armstrong and company saw that trend continuing upward this season. Instead, Fitzpatrick had a 3.46 GAA and .899 Sv%, almost identical to last season, but won fewer games as Sherbrooke finished at the bottom of the West Division.

Fitzpatrick’s signing does not imply that he will be with the Blues or their AHL affiliate, the Chicago Wolves, any time soon, but it is a step toward working closer with the young goalkeeper in hopes of turning his game around. Fitzpatrick is a physically talented goalie who seems to be struggling to develop the much-needed finesse aspects of the position, but some extra work this summer could have him back on track in 2017-18. St. Louis needs to see some improvement out of Fitzpatrick, who is still regarded as the organization’s top goalie prospect. Though young starter Jake Allen is just 26, he has had ups and downs in his first season with full control over the net, and the Blues need to have a young heir in mind just in case. At the AHL level, Jordan Binnington and Ville Husso have both played relatively well, but lack that promise that a high pick offers. If St. Louis doesn’t think either of the pair are the future, it falls on Fitzpatrick to be that next man up in the organization.

Playoff Puzzle: Western Goaltending Experience

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Corey Crawford must feel like an old man these days. When the Chicago Blackhawks goaltender looks around at the creases of his main rivals in the Western Conference, one thing is constant: inexperience. He knows it well, from when he took on the Vancouver Canucks in 2011 as a rookie. At the other end of the rink was a 31-year old Roberto Luongo, who had already been through three playoff runs and was about to win the Jennings trophy for dominating in the regular season.

Crawford and the Hawks would lose in seven games, but it was an important step towards their cup win in 2013 when he would post a .932 save percentage—still the best mark of his career. It’s not easy to backstop a team to the Stanley Cup, even if you do have an excellent group in front of you. Just ask Martin Jones, who actually played his best hockey last year in the Finals against Pittsburgh, despite losing. It took a while for him to really find his groove and even then it wasn’t enough.

So when Crawford sees the standings and notices a trend among the biggest contenders, it might make him even more confident heading into this year’s tournament. Perhaps even if he is a bit older, that experience will pay off in the toughest two months of any sport.

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Deadline Primer: St. Louis Blues

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With the trade deadline now just weeks away, we’re going to start taking a closer look at each team.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?

After earning a berth in the 2015-16 Western Conference Final, the St. Louis Blues were again expected to be among the top teams in the conference and to perhaps make it as far as the Stanley Cup Final. Unfortunately the Blues have underachieved on the season, ultimatley leading management to dismiss veteran bench boss Ken Hitchcock. More changes could be on the horizon as the team currently finds itself fighting for their playoff lives.

Record

27-22-5, 54 points, fourth in Central Division

Deadline Status

Buyer and perhaps seller

Draft Picks

2017: STL 1st, STL 2nd, STL 4th, BUF 5th, STL 6th, STL 7th

2018: STL 1st, STL 2nd, STL 3rd, CGY 3rd*, STL 4th, STL 5th, STL 6th, STL 7th

*Pick is conditional on whether Brian Elliot re-signs with Calgary

Trade Chips

It would be understandable if Blues GM Doug Armstrong doesn’t view this year’s edition of the team as a viable Stanley Cup contender and was therefore reluctant to part with either prospect or draft pick capital for rental players at the deadline. St. Louis boasts a shallow prospect pool after years of earning draft selections outside of the top-10. The team does possess their own first and second-round picks in each of the next two seasons and perhaps in the right deal they would be willing to include those assets but it would have to be a trade the brought back a young, controllable top-six forward.

Kevin Shattenkirk might represent both the team’s most valuable asset as well as the one most likely to be dealt. Stung by losing veterans David Backes and Troy Brouwer for nothing as free agents last summer, Armstrong might be motivated to cash in the puck-moving defenseman in order to avoid a similar fate in July. As a skilled, right-shot defenseman, Shattenkirk is a tremendously valuable commodity on the open market, especially if he agrees to an extension with an interested club prior to the deal being made, and could return multiple pieces to improve the team moving forward.

Team Needs

  1. A Starting Goaltender – The Blues took a risk in the offseason by splitting up the effective netminding duo of Brian Elliot and Jake Allen, moving the former to Calgary at the draft in exchange for picks. Allen was viewed as the goalie of the future but has struggled to stop the puck with any consistency this season. His backup, Carter Hutton, simply isn’t a starting-caliber backstop in this league. If the Blues decide to go for it this year, it would behoove them to look at the starting goalie market where one of Marc-Andre Fleury or Ben Bishop would easily solve their need.
  2. A Top-Line Center – Paul Stastny is a nice, #2 pivot but he’s miscast in St. Louis as their top option due to the absence of any other competent scoring line options. Patrik Berglund (20 points in 54 games) and Jori Lehtera (16 points in 49 games) simply haven’t gotten the job done. The team chose to let Backes go in free agency and it’s looking more and more like a mistake that they didn’t either bite the bullet and re-sign him or replace him in the offseason. If the Blues could find a top-line center under long-term control, they’d have to take a look at it.

 

Robby Fabbri Out For Entire Season With ACL Injury

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After reporting that Robby Fabbri left last night’s game with an apparent leg injury, the St. Louis Blues have announced today that he will miss the rest of the season with an injured ACL in his left knee. The team has recalled Magnus Paajarvi and Kenny Agostino from the Chicago Wolves in a corresponding move.

Fabbri took a check from the Penguins’ Carter Rowney in the first period, slamming into the boards just in front of the Blues’ bench. He needed assistance to get off the ice and was in obvious pain, as he was heard yelling on the broadcast.

As we wrote yesterday, losing Fabbri is a big hit for St. Louis, who were trying to turn around their early season struggles. They would lose 4-1 to the Penguins last night, unable to build on their big win against the Maple Leafs on Thursday. For a team sitting at 55 points and just barely out of a playoff spot, losing a top forward can completely change the complexion of a season.

Already expected to deal expiring contracts in Kevin Shattenkirk and Patrik Berglund, it will be interesting to see how another injury like this one will affect the way the team views the trade deadline. Other players like David Perron, Paul Stastny or even Alex Steen would be attractive pieces to many teams if the Blues could make the salaries work (which will be difficult, as all three come with significant cap-hits).

The Blues were expected to be a contender for the Stanley Cup once again but are having a nightmarish season. Between Jake Allen’s struggles, nagging injuries, the Ken Hitchcock circus and now the end to Fabbri’s year, the team may want to put this year in their rear-view mirror.

Blues Notes: Ribeiro, Hitchcock, Johnson, Armstrong

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The Blues may be one of the more interesting teams leading up to the trade deadline. The team has talent, but has underachieved this year and is battling just to make the postseason as a wild card. St. Louis took the surprising step of firing highly-respected head coach Ken Hitchcock, who had already announced he was retiring following the 2016-17 season, but more changes could be on the way.

Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch hosted his weekly chat with Blues fans today and tackled several queries regarding what steps the team might take next. It goes without saying but the whole post is well worth your time. Regardless, here’s a compilation of a few of the highlights:

  • Rutherford has long suggested the Blues need help at the center position and with Mike Ribeiro hitting the waiver wire today, one reader wondered whether St. Louis would take a chance on the talented pivot. While Ribeiro has a solid track record of offensive production, Rutherford just doesn’t see the soon-to-be-37-year-old as a fit for the Blues, citing the fact he has been a healthy scratch in Nashville on several occasions this season. Ribeiro does have 25 points in 46 games this season but only four goals. It’s likely the Predators sought potential trade partners prior to waiving Ribeiro and it would seem there wasn’t much interest. It’s possible someone besides St. Louis in need of center help will take a chance given the pivot is in the final season of his contract and wouldn’t come with much risk as a result. He did register a 50-point campaign in 2015-16 and tallied 62 the season before, suggesting he might still be able to help a team offensively.
  • The scribe also addressed whether Hitchcock’s name might come up in connection with the Las Vegas head coaching job. Rutherford is of the impression the veteran bench boss wouldn’t be “keen” on the idea and while he doesn’t specify as to why, it’s possible that the 65-year-old is simply at a point in his career where he wouldn’t want to take on the challenge of building an expansion franchise from the ground up. However, despite the fact he was set to retire after the 2016-17 season, many in the industry have said they wouldn’t be surprised to see Hitch back in the league at some point.
  • The Blues and Lightning have been linked as potential trading partners, given St. Louis’ issues in goal and the possible availability of pending free agent netminder Ben Bishop. However, Rutherford has heard that the Blues have interest in another Tampa Bay player: center Tyler Johnson. Johnson would make a ton of sense for the Blues. The team likely still fancies themselves as Stanley Cup contenders – if not necessarily this year – and a hypothetical deal for Johnson not only addresses a weakness now but would add a talented player who can be controlled as a RFA beyond the current campaign. Rutherford doesn’t specify what Tampa Bay would want in return but it’s safe to say a top-four defenseman would have to be part of the discussion.
  • Lastly, Rutherford’s colleague with the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Jesus Ortiz, argues that the Blues “fired the wrong guy” when they dismissed Hitchcock. Ortiz is of the belief the team should instead have given GM Doug Armstrong his walking papers. He points to the hiring of Mike Yeo as “head-coach-in-waiting” as potentially undermining the authority of the veteran bench boss. In the press conference following the firing, Armstrong made a reference to “independent contractors,” when describing some of the players on the team and it’s fair to wonder if that condition is related to the team’s overall approach to the handling of the coaching situation. Ortiz also suggests that allowing Troy Brouwer and David Backes to depart as free agents hurt the team both on the ice and from a leadership perspective. Additionally, the team’s decision to trade goalie Brian Elliott and install Jake Allen as the undisputed #1 seems to have backfired. Hitchcock has long been able to coax above-average play between the pipes due in large part to his strong defensive structure. That hasn’t been the case this season as each of the team’s goalies, Allen and Carter Hutton, has a S% below 0.900. However, it should be noted that Elliott is also struggling in Calgary, and there is no guarantee he would have duplicated his success from last season had he remained with the Blues.

Unfortunate Extensions: Jake Allen & Petr Mrazek

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When the St. Louis Blues went into this offseason, they had a problem. Some may call it a good problem, but it was an issue all the same; what to do with the tandem of Brian Elliott and Jake Allen? The team had gone to the Conference Finals for the first time in 15 years, and did it on the back of two outstanding seasons from their pair of netminders. Allen had a .920 save percentage in 44 starts, while Elliott carried a .930 mark through his 38 starts and continued his dominance into the playoffs, essentially moving Allen to the bench.

But when the summer came, the team decided it was time to move on from one of them and traded Elliott to the Calgary Flames. With just a year left on each goalie’s deal, the Blues wanted to get ahead of the controversy and establish Allen as their true franchise netminder. They signed him to a four-year, $17.4MM extension on the first day of free agency, locking him in long-term as their starter. After all, he was coming off the best season of his career and was still just 25-years old.

That decision hasn’t turned out too well for the Blues, who last week sent Allen away from the team, not even bringing him on a road trip to Winnipeg. Allen is sporting a .897 save percentage through the first half of the season, easily a career low for him. While some of that is a much weaker team in front of him defensively, not all of the blame can removed from his shoulders. He simply hasn’t been good enough for the Blues, and now it comes time to wonder about the decision to extend him in the summer.

With a $4.35MM cap-hit going forward, it’s not like the Blues will be completely hamstrung by his deal. There is room to get a quality veteran to split the season with him like Florida is doing with Roberto Luongo and James Reimer, but it is far from ideal. A team that has pending unrestricted free agents in Kevin Shattenkirk and Patrik Berglund, along with big RFA deals with Robby Fabbri and Colton Parayko looming in the next couple of seasons, needs their cap space used in effective manners. A long-term extension for a struggling goalie is not that.

In Detroit, a similar goaltender situation played out last year when Petr Mrazek and Jimmy Howard split the duties and pushed a underwhelming team into the playoffs. While Howard struggled during parts of the season and in the playoffs, Mrazek looked like a lock as a starting goaltender and perhaps even all-star going forward. The Wings were locked into Howard for another three seasons, but looked like they wanted to give the number one job to Mrazek after his great stretch run.

The team likely shopped the veteran Howard around but found no takers, and eventually decided on just a two-year deal with Mrazek when it came to free agency. Had they been able to find a taker for Howard and his $5.3MM cap hit, they probably would have tried to work out a longer-term deal with the younger netminder. Perhaps their inability to move Howard was a blessing in disguise however, as Mrazek has imploded in the Wings’ net, posting an .894 save percentage behind a reeling team. Howard was actually off to a great start before suffering an injury, making the decision even harder this summer.

Howard is still likely on the move out of town as the Red Wings start a rebuild, but luckily they haven’t committed to Mrazek long-term. If they decide he’s not the goaltender they thought he was, and in a year choose to go in a different direction he’ll be a hefty trade chip on the market. If he rebounds and shows them that this was just a blip on what will be an otherwise excellent career, they can then lock him into a longer deal.

For St. Louis though, they have to hitch their horse to Allen and hope he can pull them out of it. With another four-years after this dedicated to the former second-round pick, they basically don’t have any other choice.

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