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Ilya Samsonov

Arbitration Breakdown: Ilya Samsonov

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While many players who elected salary arbitration have already settled with their teams, several players are still headed toward hearings, which start tomorrow with the Chicago Blackhawks and forward Philipp Kurashev. Slated for Friday, though, is one of the more intriguing cases still unresolved: Toronto Maple Leafs netminder Ilya Samsonov.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported last night that the two sides are still actively working on a short-term deal, which could get done over the next 48 hours and avoid going to arbitration. Arbitration is usually something teams look to avoid, given they’ll have to agree to any deal awarded under the $4.5MM mark per season. But in Toronto’s case, it’s a good thing – the team is already over the salary cap even with defenseman Jake Muzzin stashed on long-term injured reserve, meaning certainty around Samsonov’s cap hit next season is crucial for them to know exactly how much space to clear in follow-up moves. They’ll have financial assurance with Samsonov one way or another within the next four days.

Filings

Team: $2.4MM
Player: $4.9MM
Midpoint: $3.65MM

(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)

The Numbers

Last season was, far and away, Samsonov’s best performance to date. A Washington Capitals first-round selection in 2015, Samsonov had shown flashes of strong play during his time in the nation’s capital, especially during his rookie season in 2019-20 when he recorded a 16-6-2 record, .913 save percentage and finished 12th in Calder Trophy voting. After that, things went progressively downhill for the Russian netminder, though, seeing his numbers dip far below league average as injuries limited his playing time. After posting a relatively poor .896 save percentage with the Capitals in 2021-22, he was surprisingly cut loose from the team entirely, hitting the UFA market at age 25 after Washington didn’t issue him a qualifying offer.

Toronto extended him a one-year, $1.8MM prove-it deal to complete their tandem with Matt Murray, and Samsonov soon took over the de facto starting role for himself after a series of injuries kept Murray out of the crease for much of the season. While depth netminders Erik Kallgren and Joseph Woll also found their way into action, Samsonov started a career-high 40 games last year and put together the highest level of play from him in the NHL, even if he was inconsistent at times.

He may not be in the upper echelon of starting netminders, especially with only one top-flight-level season under his belt. Still, he outdueled countryman Andrei Vasilevskiy just a few months ago and was perhaps the most significant reason Toronto won their first playoff series in nearly two decades. An injury early in the Second Round kept him out of the last few games of playoff action, though.

With Toronto in a tight financial situation and Samsonov not having a proven track record, it makes sense why the Maple Leafs want to go short-term with their current starter. They do have Woll in the pipeline, who’s expected to be the full-time backup next season and could potentially be ready for the starting job in a few years. That said, Toronto would surely like to settle with Samsonov on a two- or three-year deal to solidify consistency in their crease.

Because Samsonov would be eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2024, he can only sign a one-year deal via arbitration – not two. If the two sides want a longer-term deal, they must settle before the hearing.

2022-23 Stats: 42 GP, 27-10-5, 4 SO, 2,476 mins, 2.33 GAA, .919 SV%
Career Stats: 131 GP, 79-32-13, 10 SO, 7,341 mins, 2.65 GAA, .908 SV%

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of this negotiation. 

Vitek Vanecek (Devils) – If you’re looking for the framework of a potential deal, look no further than Samsonov’s former tandem partner in Washington. After two average seasons as a tandem netminder in D.C., Vanecek’s RFA rights were traded to New Jersey last offseason before he signed a three-year, $3.4MM AAV contract with the club. Coming off seasons of 37 and 42 games played and .908 save percentages in both seasons, Vanecek might have had consistency on his side more so than Samsonov, but he hadn’t reached the level Samsonov has at times throughout his young career. The latter is a bit of a unicorn in recent RFA goalie signings, and it makes sense why he’d want more than his ex-teammate, but Vanecek’s deal falls near the midpoint of the two filings.

Alexandar Georgiev (Avalanche) – Just a few days before Vanecek signed a deal with his new team in 2022, Georgiev signed the same contract with the Colorado Avalanche. Georgiev had more experience and was perhaps a more highly-touted solution as a starter than Vanecek, but he was coming off a rough year with the New York Rangers that saw his save percentage dip below the .900 mark. Samsonov’s performance last season was much better than either Vanecek’s or Georgiev’s before they signed their deals, though, something he’ll likely leverage in his hearing to make his case for an AAV in the $3.5-$4.5MM range.

Projection

This is the first arbitration case of the summer where the filing values have been publically exchanged, so it’s a bit more challenging to project a first-of-the-offseason deal, especially when there’s a lack of solid comparables in 2023 from which to compare Samsonov’s situation.

On a one-year deal with the potential to cash in for big money on the UFA market in 2024, though, it seems unlikely the arbitrator would rule significantly in Samsonov’s favor. The filings seem pretty reasonable based on past cases, and they’re positioned to grant Samsonov a deal right around the midpoint of the filings, potentially a bit higher. Expect something in the $3.75MM range on a one-year pact for Samsonov if the two sides don’t settle before Friday’s hearing.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Maple Leafs Notes: Nylander, Matthews, Samsonov

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Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported on the NHL Network today that he believes that the Toronto Maple Leafs and forward William Nylander are at a standstill in their contract negotiations. He goes on to say that he doesn’t think a contract will get done anytime soon unless one of the sides budges dramatically from their position. Friedman’s belief is that Nylander doesn’t want to take a discount to remain with the Maple Leafs if their other top-end players aren’t willing to take one too.

It’s hard to fault Nylander’s logic, he has been playing on a contract well under his market value for a half-decade while several of his teammates have been collecting annual salaries north of $10MM. Chris Johnston reported weeks ago on the Chris Johnston show that Nylander’s ask on his next contract is an annual salary of around $10MM, while the Maple Leafs are countering with an extension offering him between $8MM and $9MM per year. Given the way things are going, it appears that Auston Matthews next contract could be a big factor in whether the Leafs can lock up Nylander to a long-term extension.

Should the Maple Leafs opt to dangle Nylander in the trade market there would be a long lineup of suitors for the 27-year-old. Nylander is coming off back-to-back 80+ point seasons and has become much more responsible with the puck as his career has gone on. He is no longer regarded as a turnover machine as he might have been in earlier parts of his career.

In other Maple Leafs notes:

  • Speaking of Auston Matthews, Elliotte Friedman had a small update on the Maple Leafs star forward. Friedman told the NHL Network that he believes Matthews will sign an extension very soon that will be between three and five years. While it’s hardly a surprise to hear that Matthews is once again looking at signing a shorter-term deal in hopes of maximizing his earning potential, it is surprising to hear that Matthews would consider a five-year contract that would take him through most of his prime and into his early 30s. Even at 31 Matthews will likely be able to fetch a lucrative long-term deal, but he may not be able to command as much money as he could as a 29-year-old hitting free agency.
  • Friedman also reported that he believes that the Maple Leafs don’t want to go beyond a three-year extension with restricted free-agent goaltender Ilya Samsonov. The Maple Leafs and Samsonov are expected to go to arbitration on July 21, meaning that arbitration numbers will be exchanged tomorrow morning. The 26-year-old netminder was terrific in his first season with Toronto posting a .919 save percentage to go along with a 2.33 goals-against average and a 27-10-5 record. The Maple Leafs are currently over the salary cap meaning that they will need to shuffle around money to fit in Samsonov’s new deal when it is completed.

Maple Leafs Notes: Dubas, Matthews, Bunting, O’Reilly, Samsonov, Peksa

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2:50 PM: Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas took his turn at the podium today, and issued some useful clarity on both his own future and his plans for the Maple Leafs moving forward, should he be retained as GM. On his own future, Dubas said it would be a “family decision” on whether he will remain as head coach, and that he would either remain an executive in Toronto, or step away and take some time to “recalibrate on the season” he just had. Perhaps most importantly for other teams potentially interested in hiring Dubas to fill their vacant GM roles, Dubas stated: “you won’t see me next week popping up elsewhere,” meaning he is highly unlikely to be a possibility for any of this cycle’s GM vacancies.

His other revealing comments today were regarding the Maple Leafs’ general strategy, and how he would approach improving his team. Dubas said he would be “interested in doing anything” with his roster this summer, and that he “would take nothing off the table at all,” which obviously includes superstars such as Matthews. Dubas cited the Panthers (and presumably their bold, core-shaking trade for Matthew Tkachuk last summer) as an example of a team that re-structured a disappointing core in a successful manner, so based on these comments, it seems there could be a greater appetite for seismic change in Toronto than some might have anticipated.

For what its worth, Toronto’s core players almost exclusively expressed sincere hopes that they could remain Maple Leafs and not see their core group of players broken up. But based on Dubas’ recent comments, it looks as though their general manager will examine every possible opportunity to improve his team, even if it requires saying parting with some talented familiar faces.

12:30 PM: Since the Toronto Maple Leafs were eliminated from the second round of the playoffs by the Florida Panthers, much of the focus of the hockey world has been on three of the team’s key figures: general manager Kyle Dubas, head coach Sheldon Keefe, and superstar face of the franchise Auston Matthews. While the futures of both Dubas and Keefe are technically more immediately pressing, it’s the fate of Matthews that is likely to have the most significant on-ice consequences. The 25-year-old 2021-22 Hart Trophy winner is set to see his current $11.6MM AAV contract expire after next season, and will gain a full no-movement clause this summer, giving Toronto no opportunity to consider trades for him should he decide he wants to test the open market.

Toronto must be thankful, then, that testing the waters of unrestricted free agency does not seem to be Matthews’ top priority. As relayed by Northstar Bets’ Chris Johnston, Matthews told the media that his “intention” is to remain a Maple Leaf, and that he would like an extension to be finalized before next season. It’s worth noting that Matthews’ comments on his future today will feel extremely similar to what John Tavares communicated to the media as he approached the expiry of his contract with the New York Islanders, and Tavares ultimately did leave as a free agent. So that is to say that even with these comments, there remains a ways to go before Matthews’ pen hits the paper on a lucrative new long-term deal, and the possibility that he departs still exists. But in terms of each outcome’s likelihood,  Matthews’ comments today have to give confidence to the Toronto market that their team’s best player is in it for the long haul.

Other notes regarding the Maple Leafs:

  • One player who seems unlikely to be signing a contract extension to remain in Toronto is 27-year-old winger Michael Bunting. Today Bunting told the media, including Sports Illustrated’s David Alter, that he didn’t have any contract talks about an extension with the Maple Leafs during the season. While it’s possible Bunting, who scored 23 goals and 49 points this season before disappointing in the playoffs, could ultimately find a way to return to Toronto, it does not seem as though that outcome is likely. Bunting has a chance to headline a class of free agent left wingers relatively thin in top-level talent, meaning it’s a strong possibility that he’s able to earn a better offer from another club than Toronto is in a position to make.
  • Speaking with the media today, Maple Leafs center Ryan O’Reilly also answered questions on his future. Johnston reports that O’Reilly sounded “more inclined to test the open market on July 1 than try and work out an extension” with Toronto, which once again feels like the likeliest outcome given the cap constraints Toronto’s big contracts have forced them to work with. After a disappointing 40-game run this season with the St. Louis Blues, O’Reilly was dealt to Toronto and the trade seemed to revive his game. He scored 11 points in 13 regular-season games and nine in 11 playoff games, including a few important contributions in high-leverage moments. But having significantly helped his stock with his playoff performance, O’Reilly may also have placed himself out of Toronto’s price range for a contract extension.
  • The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun relays word from Maple Leafs netminder Ilya Samsonov regarding the injury that knocked him out of the team’s second-round playoff series against Florida. Samsonov said an unfortunate collision with teammate Luke Schenn caused him to suffer a neck injury, and it’s that injury that forced rookie Joseph Woll between the pipes. Samsonov ultimately finished his nine-game run in the playoffs with sub-par numbers (.898 save percentage and 3.13 goals-against-average in nine games played) though he did manage to backstop Toronto to their long-awaited playoff series victory. Samsonov added in his media availability that he hopes to be able to re-sign with Toronto, who will have the opportunity to retain his rights as an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent with a $1.8MM qualifying offer.
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs signed 2021 sixth-round pick Vyacheslav Peksa to a three-year, $851k AAV entry-level deal. Peksa, a 20-year-old Russian netminder, has been developing in KHL club Ak Bars Kazan’s system for a few seasons now. Last year was his final campaign at Russia’s junior level and he posted a .936 save percentage in 56 games played. This year, he moved to Russia’s second-tier men’s pro league and posted an impressive .921 save percentage in 40 games, vastly outplaying Vladimir Mosin and Ilya Golubev, the two other goalies on his team who also happen to be older than Peksa. This move allows Peksa to continue his development in North America, where he could either end up with the AHL’s Toronto Marlies or ECHL’s Newfoundland Growlers.

Maple Leafs/Panthers Notes: Samsonov, Knies, Lomberg

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Another day of morning skates for the Toronto Maple Leafs brings more updates on their duo of injured players, who are both ruled out for Game 5 against the Florida Panthers tonight but making progress in their recoveries. This morning, The Hockey News’ Mike Stephens relayed that netminder Ilya Samsonov was skating on his own this morning, practicing in isolation with Toronto’s skills coaches.

This is Samsonov’s first practice since sustaining an upper-body injury two games ago when Toronto defenseman Luke Schenn collided with him whilst defending a rush. While signs are pointing to Samsonov not being out much longer, Toronto’s season can end at any point, down 3-1 in their series. In the meantime, the starter’s net is filled by rookie Joseph Woll, who stopped 24 of 25 shots in a must-win Game 4 road win on Wednesday.

  • Rookie forward Matthew Knies is also practicing for the first time today since his concussion in Game 2 of the Florida series, says The Athletic’s Jonas Siegel. Knies was injured on a play behind the net, forced to the ice by Panthers forward Sam Bennett. While he won’t play tonight, Knies’ status is day-to-day and he hasn’t been ruled out for a potential Game 6 on Sunday.
  • The Hockey News’ David Dwork believes forward Ryan Lomberg is doubtful to return to the lineup in the Eastern Conference Final against the Carolina Hurricanes, should they advance. Lomberg has not played since Game 4 of the First Round against the Boston Bruins and is day-to-day with an upper-body injury. The physical winger had already racked up 18 penalty minutes through four games, 14 of which game in Game 2.

Injury Notes: Samsonov, Knies, Raanta

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The Toronto Maple Leafs are still in Stanley Cup contention after staving off elimination, winning last night’s Game 4 against the Florida Panthers 2-1. The victory came in large part due to the strong play of rookie netminder Joseph Woll, who stopped 24 of 25 shots and saved 2.02 goals above expected (MoneyPuck).

They’ll have to turn to Woll again for Game 5, as head coach Sheldon Keefe told reporters this morning that starter Ilya Samsonov remains unavailable with an upper-body injury. Samsonov left early in the second period of Game 3 after Maple Leafs defender Luke Schenn barrelled into him while defending a Panthers rush. Toronto’s starter for much of the season, Samsonov had been largely passable in the postseason, making key saves despite a .898 save percentage on the whole during the postseason. While Woll has just 14 combined regular-season and playoff games in his NHL career, he has a combined 10-3-0 record and has posted save percentages well over .900.

Other injury notes from the playoff landscape this morning:

  • Keefe also revealed to reporters forward Matthew Knies’ concussion symptoms are improving after missing Games 3 and 4, but he’s not yet ready to return to the lineup. Knies was knocked out of Game 2 in the first period, sustaining the concussion on a hit from Panthers center Sam Bennett. The rookie forward had cemented himself in a top-six role by the time of his injury, recording four points in his first seven playoff games.
  • Carolina Hurricanes netminder Antti Raanta said he’s recovered from an illness that kept him out for the past three games, meaning he’ll back up Frederik Andersen tonight for a potentially series-clinching Game 5. Raanta started the first five games of Carolina’s First Round series against the New York Islanders but has since been superseded by Andersen, who’s posted a 4-0-0 record and .930 save percentage in five starts.

Afternoon Notes: Bruins, Samsonov, Sprong

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Ty Anderson of 98.5 The Sports Hub is reporting that Boston Bruins general manager Don Sweeney is hinting that the Bruins will go into a re-tool this offseason. What that will be remains to be seen but the long-time GM was quoted as saying, “roster changes are likely coming.” Sweeney continually referenced Boston’s dire salary cap situation as well as integrating younger players into the lineup. Sweeney’s words are no surprise given that Boston has less than $5MM in cap space entering the offseason and have just seven of their current forwards signed to contracts for next year. Boston will also need to work out a new contract for backup goaltender Jeremy Swayman who will be a restricted free agent this summer.

On top of needing to work out a deal with Swayman, Boston has many other key free agents who will likely need to move on given the Bruins lack of cap space. Patrice Bergeron and David Krejčí are both unrestricted free agents who played on low cap hits last season and hit bonus clauses that will cause Boston to carry bonus overages of $4.5MM into 2023-24. Trade deadline acquisitions Tyler Bertuzzi, Dmitry Orlov and Garnet Hathaway are also all unrestricted free agents this summer and are likely to seek employment elsewhere. Given everything going on in Boston they will have a very different looking team than the one that lost in the first round to the Florida Panthers.

In other notes from around the NHL:

NHL Insider Chris Johnston tweeted today from Toronto Maple Leafs practice that Ilya Samsonov was not at Toronto practice and that goalie coach Curtis Sanford was working with Joseph Woll and Matt Murray. The Leafs have yet to offer an update on their netminders status for game 4. Samsonov is expected to have an MRI and some additional tests prior to the team offering an update on their starter for the elimination game on Wednesday. Woll would be the likely starter for Toronto should Samsonov be unable to play. The 26-year-old Samsonov was injured in a collision with teammate Luke Schenn in game 3 and was unable to return to action.

The Seattle Kraken have announced that forward Daniel Sprong has been ruled out of game 4 against the Dallas Stars. The 26-year-old is dealing with an upper body injury and won’t dress tonight as they Kraken look to take a 3-1 stranglehold on their second round series. Sprong has just two points in 10 games in these playoffs and is currently mired in a six-game pointless streak. He played just 6:36 in Seattle’s 7-2 game 3 victory and has been largely relegated to fourth line minutes during his recent stretch of poor play.

Ilya Samsonov To Have MRI And Other Tests

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The Toronto Maple Leafs are in a massive hole as they trail the Florida Panthers 3-0 in their best of seven Eastern Conference semi-final series. Now they may have to deal with an elimination game without goaltender Ilya Samsonov. David Alter of The Hockey News is reporting that Samsonov is feeling better today but will be going for an MRI and additional testing to gain a better understanding on what is happening with the 26-year-old. His status for game four is unknown currently.

Samsonov left game three early after he was run over by teammate Luke Schenn on an odd man rush. The former first round pick lay on the ice after the incident and was checked by Maple Leafs training staff. He was eventually ruled out of the game and did not return. Joseph Woll came in to relieve Samsonov and made 18 saves before allowing the overtime winning goal to Sam Reinhart.

Samsonov has been terrific this season for Toronto having posted a .919 save percentage to go along with a 27-10-5 record. Should he miss game four the Maple Leafs would likely go back to rookie Woll who filled in admirably for Samsonov. Woll has been great for Toronto in limited action this year having posted a 6-1 record with a .932 save percentage and 2.16 goals against average.

One thing to potentially keep an eye on could be current third string goaltender Matt Murray. The Thunder Bay native was cleared to return prior to the series and has been practicing with the club. Murray hasn’t played since he suffered a concussion in early April and while it is unlikely he would be thrown into the net to start an elimination game, he would become the backup should Samsonov miss any time.

Matt Murray To Be Toronto Maple Leafs Third Goalie

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David Alter of Sports Illustrated is reporting that Matt Murray is set to take the role as the Toronto Maple Leafs third goalie as they get set to begin their second round series against the Florida Panthers. The Thunder Bay native joined his Leafs teammates at practice today for the first time since he suffered a concussion on April 2 during a 5-2 Toronto loss against Detroit.

The 28-year-old will fall behind Ilya Samsonov and Joseph Woll on the Maple Leafs goaltending depth chart and will likely travel with the club when they head to Florida for games three and four. Murray has an exemplary track record in the playoffs having backstopped the Pittsburgh Penguins to back-to-back Stanley Cups as a rookie in 2016 and 2017.

A lot has changed since those two championships as Murray has been relegated to an afterthought since being traded by the Penguins to the Ottawa Senators in 2020. Murray never found his footing in Ottawa as he battled inconsistency and injuries and was eventually traded last summer to Toronto in a salary dump.

Murray had an uneven first season in Toronto posting a 14-8-2 record with a 3.01 goals-against average and a .903 save percentage. While he hasn’t posted elite numbers in years, he does offer Toronto a strong backup option should Samsonov stumble.

Toronto Maple Leafs Emergency Recall Joseph Woll

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The Toronto Maple Leafs have recalled goalie Joseph Woll from the AHL’s Toronto Marlies on an emergency basis, the team tweeted Thursday.

The move was announced as starting netminder Ilya Samsonov is assumedly away from the team for the birth of his and his wife’s first child. Woll will back up Matt Murray tonight when the Leafs play the Florida Panthers, their second straight game against a hungry opponent in the thick of the Eastern Conference Wild Card race.

Woll, 24, is quickly seeing his stock rise with impressive performances in both the big leagues and the minors this season. He’s been shuttled between leagues multiple times over the past few months as minor injuries have affected Samsonov and Murray.

He’s played in three games with the Maple Leafs this season, posting a 2-1-0 record with a 2.04 goals-against average and .938 save percentage. He stopped 25 of 26 shots in his last appearance, a win against the Calgary Flames in early March. While it’s unlikely Woll plays during what will be a short call-up in Samsonov’s absence, he’s earned more opportunities at the NHL level with similarly strong numbers in the minors.

Leafs Notes: Brodie, Samsonov, Acciari

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A common theme of the Toronto Maple Leafs season has been injuries to defensemen, and unfortunately, this week has brought more of the same. Head coach Sheldon Keefe told reporters today that T.J. Brodie is day-to-day after blocking a shot against the Ottawa Senators last Saturday, calling him questionable for tomorrow’s game against the New York Islanders.

If there’s one position where Toronto is built to withstand injuries, though, it’s defense. A flurry of deadline adds and already formidable depth has left the Leafs with a bevy of NHL-capable options to step in, and it’s likely that Mark Giordano will return to the lineup in Brodie’s place. It’s not a small absence for the Leafs, though, as Brodie ranks second among Leafs defenders this season in ice time per game.

  • Netminder Ilya Samsonov told reporters today that he’s been playing with a minor injury for the past number of games. The Hockey News’ David Alter reports that it dates back to a win late last month against the Seattle Kraken. It hasn’t seemed to impact Samsonov’s play that much, and although he’s only made four appearances since then, he’s maintained a 2-1-1 record and .914 save percentage since, in line with his season average.
  • Trade deadline acquisition Noel Acciari gave reporters an update on his condition, saying he’s feeling good and ready to play tomorrow after missing Saturday’s game for precautionary reasons. Acciari played just 5:36 in last Friday’s game against Carolina before a collision with Jesse Puljujarvi that involved a head impact sidelined him for the rest of the game. Since joining the Leafs, Acciari has three goals in 13 games and is averaging 12:51 per game.

 

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