Salary Cap Deep Dive: Colorado Avalanche
Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Colorado Avalanche
Current Cap Hit: $67,318,095 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Alexander Kerfoot (one year, $925K)
F Dominic Toninato (one year, $925K)
F J.T. Compher (one year, $925K)
F Mikko Rantanen (one year, $894K)
F Tyson Jost (two years, $886K)
F Vladislav Kamenev (one year, $833K)
F A.J. Greer (one year, $741K)
D Samuel Girard (two years, $728K)
D Anton Lindholm (one year, $718K)
Potential Bonuses:
Rantanen: $850K
Jost: $850K
Kerfoot: $213K
Girard: $183K
Lindholm: $183K
Compher: $100K
Greer: $75K
Total: $2.47MM
For a successful team that made it into the playoffs and gave the Nashville Predators a run for their money, it’s a bit surprising that the team got quite a bit of contributions from entry-level players, with Rantanen probably at the top of the list of contributors. After a 20-goal season in his first full season on the team, the 21-year-old took that next step and benefitted from playing with Nathan MacKinnon on the first line, breaking out with a 29-goal, 84-point season. With the top line expected to return this season, don’t be surprised if the winger puts up another big season right before he becomes a restricted free agent and could get rewarded with a long-term contract.
The team expects similar success from Kerfoot, who arrived in Colorado as a four-year college free agent from Harvard University. The 24-year-old posted a 19-goal, 43-point rookie campaign last year as a member of the team’s third line and now is expected to move up a notch and battle Jost for the second-line center position, with the loser moving to right wing on the same line. Jost, scored 12 goals last season in his rookie season, but the 2016 first-rounder is expected to break out if he can earn a spot on that second line as well. Both are likely to have promising seasons.
The 23-year-old Compher is another young talent who will be given every chance to fight for a spot as the left wing on the second line. In his first full season, Compher posted 13 goals and could be in line for a bigger season next year. The team also has high expectations for Girard on the defense. One of the key pieces of the Matt Duchene trade, the then 19-year-old defenseman was able to stay in the NHL, averaging 17:39 ATOI once he was traded from Nashville and posted 20 points in his rookie season and should be able to improve on that as he will likely assume a top-four role already next season.
One interesting prospect is Kamenev, who also came over with Girard in the Duchene deal, but the 22-year-old center was injured one game into his Colorado career, and he missed most of the season. Now healthy, Kamenev has a good chance to earn a role on the team’s third line in hopes of putting up good numbers next year. Toninato may also be an interesting addition as he has a chance to pick up the fourth-line center spot after signing last season out of the University of Minnesota-Duluth.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
G Semyon Varlamov ($5.9MM, UFA)
F Colin Wilson ($3.94MM, UFA)
D Patrik Nemeth ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Nikita Zadorov ($2.15MM, RFA)
F Sven Andrighetto ($1.4MM, RFA)
F Gabriel Bourque ($950K, UFA)
With cap room at a premium, general manager Joe Sakic had the opportunity to use that to his advantage as he was able to acquire the bloated contract of Brooks Orpik from Washington to acquire their future goaltender in Grubauer, who has posted two straight seasons of .923 save percentages or higher. The Capitals’ backup goalie looks ready for a chance to take a starting role and while he might split time with Varlamov early on, the team’s hopes is that Grubauer steals the job away from him. Varlamov and his $5.9MM contract is set to expire next year, meaning the Avalanche are likely going to allow him to walk.
The team has a pair of defensive players in Zadorov and Nemeth, who will be fighting for contract extensions next season. Zadorov has been a key defensive player for the team, posting 278 hits as well as blocking 106 shots. He even posted a career high in both goals (7) and points (20). Nemeth came over to Colorado from Dallas and immediately jumped into the rotation and led the team with a plus-27 rating and was crucial to the team’s penalty kill and likely will take a third-pairing role once again.
Wilson could be pushed down to the team’s third line or provide a veteran presence on the second line depending if one of the youngsters fails to impress in camp. However, the 28-year-old is coming off of one of his worst-ever seasons as he posted just six goals and 18 points last season. Andrighetto will be another youngster who should get some time in the team’s bottom-six.
Two Years Remaining
D Tyson Barrie ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Carl Soderberg ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Matthew Nieto ($1.98MM, UFA)
D Mark Barberio ($1.45MM, UFA)
D Mark Alt ($725K, UFA)
The 27-year-old took that next step for the Avalanche, putting up career numbers in both goals and points as he posted 14 goals and 57 points last season as he’s proven to be a No. 1 defenseman that the franchise really needs. The team must find a way to lock him up to an extension in July next year.
Soderberg doesn’t post big offensive numbers, but is viewed as a critical shutdown defender, who the Avalanche put up against other teams’ top players. The 32-year-old did put up 16 goals and 37 points last year, but his main responsibility is to center the team’s third line. Nieto will likely end up there with him, who also produced at a career-high as he posted a 15-goal season last year.
Three Years Remaining
F Gabriel Landeskog ($5.57MM, UFA)
D Ian Cole ($4.25MM, UFA)
G Philipp Grubauer ($3.33MM, UFA)
F Matt Calvert ($2.85MM, UFA)
Landeskog has become an integral part of the Avalance’s top line as he posted numbers that are comparable to his best seasons of his career as he posted 25 goals and 62 points. The 25-year-old has added excellent balance to that top line since the team moved on from Duchene. The second-overall pick in 2011 might be able to start meeting the high expectations of his draft status if the chemistry between Rantanen and MacKinnon continue.
Cole, Grubauer and Calvert were all recent additions this offseason with Grubauer having already been discussed. However, the team hopes to get some solid value out of both Cole and Calvert at their respective positions. Cole should provide veteran depth to developing defense and if he plays well enough could beat out Girard or Zadorov for a top-four spot, but is more likely to settle into a third-line pairing. Calvert should be able to provide third or fourth-line depth since his lack of offensive skills would likely prevent him from earning a second-line role.
Four Or More Years Remaining
F Nathan MacKinnon ($6.3MM through 2022-23)
D Erik Johnson ($6MM through 2022-23)
The amazing thing is that Colorado only has two players locked up long-term and considering that MacKinnon was one of the top vote-getters for the Hart Trophy last season after the 23-year-old posted 39 goals and 97 points, the team has a steal of a deal with him. With the rising salaries of star players, the fact that Colorado has MacKinnon locked up for five more years at just $6.3MM only makes their situation better and should allow the team to add even more talent over the next couple of years.
The team also has five more years of Johnson at $6MM, which isn’t as good. While Johnson is a solid defensive defenseman, the 30-year-old is injury-prone and hasn’t been able to play 80 games just once in his 10 NHL seasons. He managed nine goals and 25 points in 62 games last season and still remains the team’s second-best defenseman.
Buyouts
D Brooks Orpik ($2.5MM in 2018-19; $1.5MM in 2019-20)
Retained Salary Transactions
None
Still To Sign
None
Best Value: MacKinnon
Worst Value: Johnson
(Excluding entry-level contracts)
Looking Ahead
The Avalanche is a young team that just a year ago many considered to be one of the worst in the NHL. Thanks to the superb play of many of their young players, the team should be in good hands. Colorado has plenty of cap space to handle long-term deals that will need to be given to their many youngsters with Rantanen the most likely to be handed a long-term extension and the team may even have the ability to go after a big-name free agent in a year or two if they continue to improve and show they are the most intriguing team in the Central Division.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
An Avalanche Is Beginning In Colorado
Over the last year, the Colorado Avalanche—and GM Joe Sakic in particular—have taken a lot of heat from media and fans for their performance on and off the ice. Heading into 2017 with a 12-23-1 record, they would go 10-33-3 over the last few months of the 2016-17 season to finish what was a historically bad campaign. Their players seemed to quit on the ice, and rumors of discontent in Jared Bednar’s locker room were rampant. Matt Duchene, one of the long-time faces of the franchise asked for a fresh start elsewhere, but was forced to finish the year and wasn’t promised anything going forward.
In June, the team lost a young goaltender in Calvin Pickard to the expansion Vegas Golden Knights and were bumped all the way out of the top-3 in the draft lottery despite their last-place finish. Duchene trade rumors persisted, but Sakic wouldn’t lower his high asking price. Still, on the draft floor the Avalanche would be able to select exactly what they needed at fourth-overall. Cale Makar, an undersized defenseman whose most noticeable flaw was that he hadn’t played against high-level competition, dropped into their laps.
They’d be even more excited when Conor Timmins, a more traditional two-way defenseman from the OHL would slip out of the first round entirely. Timmins had climbed to 18th on the CSS rankings among North American skaters—and fourth among North American defensemen—by the end of the 2016-17 season, and yet still fell all the way to Colorado at 32nd-overall.
The rest of the summer went relatively uneventful, with all eyes still on Duchene, and the season began with a relatively similar Avalanche squad. The on-ice performance wouldn’t look anything like the end of the previous year though, as Colorado would go 8-5-0 through their first 13 games, led by a determined Duchene and energized Nathan MacKinnon. Then, on November 5th against the New York Islanders, Blake Comeau would be helped off the ice and down the tunnel to assess an injury. Behind him, Duchene would slip away as well, just informed that he’d been traded to the Ottawa Senators mid-game.
That deal, the one that Sakic had been pursuing for months, came about by involving both Ottawa and the Nashville Predators. The Avalanche finally received their asking price of a young NHL-ready defenseman (Samuel Girard), top prospect (Vladislav Kamenev) and first-round pick. Amazingly, they also added another top prospect in Shane Bowers, and two additional draft picks (Nashville’s 2018 second-round pick, and Ottawa’s 2019 third-round pick). It’s more than anyone expected Sakic would get for a player that now had fewer than two years remaining on his contract.
Colorado would lose that game against the Islanders, and the next two against the Duchene-led Senators while in Sweden. But since then, the team has gone 11-9-2 and is still in the playoff mix in the Western Conference. Their 41 points puts them at the bottom of the Central Division, but only three points behind the Anaheim Ducks for the final wildcard spot. That’s a huge step forward for a team that finished with only 48 points total in 2016-17.
It’s not going to end there.
While Girard is showing that he’s ready for a full-time role in the NHL at the tender age of 19, Makar and Timmins are starring for Team Canada at the World Junior tournament. Makar started as the team’s seventh defenseman, but has shone as Canada deals with injuries to several older and more experienced players. Both defensemen scored today against Switzerland, skating together at even-strength. Timmins is part of a powerhouse Sault Ste. Marie team in the OHL that has lost just three games in regulation, and could be in line for a Memorial Cup berth.
Suddenly, when you start imagining a blueline patrolled by those three and an offense led by MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, only 22 and 21 respectively, the future doesn’t look so bleak in Colorado. Add in other high-upside players like Tyson Jost (19) and Alexander Kerfoot (23), a captain in Gabriel Landeskog who just turned 25, and four selections in the top two rounds in what is shaping up to be an incredible draft class, and it might not be very long until there is more than just hope in the Avalanche dressing room.
Who Is On Pace To Score 60 Points In 2017-18?
In 2016-17, only 42 NHLers hit the 60-point benchmark for the season. It was the lowest total since the 2012-13 lockout-shortened season (obviously), when only Martin St. Louis notched sixty, and down eleven from the 53 players who hit the mark two years earlier in 2014-15. However, with scoring up this season in the NHL, will the league increase it’s number of top scorers? Or will a greater depth and distribution of talent continue to limit players from reaching the high numbers of yesteryear?
As of now, with the 2017 segment of the season about to close, here are the players on pace for 60 points in 2017-18:
- Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 54 points in 37 games, Projection: 120 points
- Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 48 points in 37 games, Projection: 107 points
- John Tavares, New York Islanders – Currently: 49 points in 38 games, Projection: 106 points
- Josh Bailey, New York Islanders – Currently: 49 points in 38 games, Projection: 106 points
- Jakub Voracek, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 46 points in 38 games, Projection: 99 points
- Claude Giroux, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 46 points in 38 games, Projection: 99 points
- Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers – Currently: 45 points in 38 games, Projection: 97 points
- Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche – Currently: 43 points in 37 games, Projection: 95 points
- Blake Wheeler, Winnipeg Jets – Currently: 44 points in 39 games, Projection: 93 points
- Johnny Gaudreau, Calgary Flames – Currently: 41 points in 38 games, Projection: 89 points
- Phil Kessel, Pittsburgh Penguins – Currently: 41 points in 39 games, Projection: 86 points
- Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals – Currently: 41 points in 40 games, Projection: 84 points
- Anze Kopitar, Los Angeles Kings – Currently: 40 points in 39 games, Projection: 84 points
- Anders Lee, New York Islanders – Currently: 39 points in 38 games, Projection: 84 points
- Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks – Currently: 38 points in 37 games, Projection: 84 points
- Brock Boeser*, Vancouver Canucks – Currently: 38 points in 36 games, Projection: 84 points
- Brayden Schenn, St. Louis Blues – Currently: 41 points in 41 games, Projection: 82 points
- Brad Marchand, Boston Bruins – Currently: 32 points in 29 games, Projection: 82 points
- Jon Marchessault, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 34 points in 33 games, Projection: 81 points
- Evgeny Kuznetsov, Washington Capitals – Currently: 39 points in 40 games, Projection: 80 points
- Taylor Hall, New Jersey Devils – Currently: 36 points in 36 games, Projection: 80 points
- Jonathan Huberdeau, Florida Panthers – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
- Vincent Trocheck, Florida Panthers – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
- Mathew Barzal*, New York Islanders – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
- Sean Couturier, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
- Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins – Currently: 35 points in 35 games, Projection: 78 points
- Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis Blues – Currently: 38 points in 41 games, Projection: 76 points
- Jack Eichel, Buffalo Sabres – Currently: 35 points in 38 games, Projection: 75 points
- David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins – Currently: 34 points in 37 games, Projection: 75 points
- Mark Stone, Ottawa Senators – Currently: 34 points in 37 games, Projection: 75 points
- Brayden Point, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 34 points in 37 games, Projection: 75 points
- Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins – Currently: 35 points in 39 games, Projection: 74 points
- Jamie Benn, Dallas Stars – Currently: 35 points in 39 games, Projection: 74 points
- David Perron, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 29 points in 30 games, Projection: 74 points
- Evander Kane, Buffalo Sabres – Currently: 34 points in 38 games, Projection: 73 points
- Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers – Currently: 33 points in 37 games, Projection: 73 points
- Mikko Rantanen, Colorado Avalanche – Currently: 33 points in 37 games, Projection: 73 points
- Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers – Currently: 32 points in 34 games, Projection: 73 points
- Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs – Currently: 29 points in 29 games, Projection: 72 points
- Artemi Panarin, Columbus Blue Jackets – Currently: 34 points in 39 games, Projection: 71 points
- Tyler Seguin, Dallas Stars – Currently: 34 points in 39 games, Projection: 71 points
- Vlad Namestnikov, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 32 points in 37 games, Projection: 71 points
- Eric Staal, Minnesota Wild – Currently: 33 points in 39 games, Projection: 70 points
- Ryan Getzlaf, Anaheim Ducks – Currently: 18 points in 15 games, Projection: 70 points
- Sean Monahan, Calgary Flames – Currently: 32 points in 38 games, Projection: 69 points
- Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings – Currently: 31 points in 37 games, Projection: 69 points
- John Klingberg, Dallas Stars – Currently: 32 points in 39 games, Projection: 67 points
- William Karlsson, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 29 points in 36 games, Projection: 66 points
- Gabriel Landeskog, Colorado Avalanche – Currently: 28 points in 33 games, Projection: 66 points
- Shayne Gostisbehere, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 29 points in 35 games, Projection: 66 points
- Nicklas Backstrom, Washington Capitals – Currently: 31 points in 39 games, Projection: 65 points
- Alexander Radulov, Dallas Stars – Currently: 31 points in 39 games, Projection: 65 points
- Patrik Laine, Winnipeg Jets – Currently: 31 points in 39 games, Projection: 65 points
- Clayton Keller*, Arizona Coyotes – Currently: 31 points in 40 games, Projection: 64 points
- John Carlson, Washington Capitals – Currently: 31 points in 40 games, Projection: 64 points
- Reilly Smith, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 28 points in 36 games, Projection: 64 points
- Nikolaj Ehlers, Winnipeg Jets – Currently: 30 points in 39 games, Projection: 63 points
- P.K. Subban, Nashville Predators – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
- Mats Zuccarello, New York Rangers – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Edmonton Oilers – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
- Teuvo Teravainen, Carolina Hurricanes – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
- Sebastian Aho, Carolina Hurricanes – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
- James Neal, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 27 points in 36 games, Projection: 62 points
- Kyle Turris, Nashville Predators – Currently: 27 points in 34 games, Projection: 62 points
- Danton Heinen*, Boston Bruins – Currently: 26 points in 33 games, Projection: 62 points
- Drew Doughty, Los Angeles Kings – Currently: 29 points in 39 games, Projection: 61 points
- Dustin Brown, Los Angeles Kings – Currently: 29 points in 39 games, Projection: 61 points
- Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs – Currently: 29 points in 39 games, Projection: 61 points
- Jordan Eberle, New York Islanders – Currently: 28 points in 38 games, Projection: 61 points
- Joe Thornton, San Jose Sharks – Currently: 26 points in 35 games, Projection: 61 points
- Mikael Granlund, Minnesota Wild – 27 points in 34 games, Projection: 61 points
- Rickard Rakell, Anaheim Ducks – Currently: 27 points in 34 games, Projection: 61 points
- Tyler Johnson, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 27 points in 36 games, Projection: 61 points
- Erik Haula, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 25 points in 32 games, Projection: 61 points
- Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 27 points in 37 games, Projection: 60 points
- Patrice Bergeron, Boston Bruins- Currently: 25 points in 32 games, Projection: 60 points
- Erik Karlsson, Ottawa Senators – Currently: 25 points in 32 games, Projection: 60 points
Poll: Fairness In NHL’s Fines And Suspensions?
In a season where penalties are down, there has been a surprising amount of newsworthy fines and suspensions early on in 2017-18. The unfortunate thing for the NHL is the only common theme between these instances of league punishment seem to be inconsistency and a lack of sense.
Three players – Steven Stamkos, Kevin Hayes, and most recently Matt Dumba – have been fined $5,000 apiece this season for water squirting. It’s not exactly a lethal offense, but is probably worthy of a minor infraction. Except, Alex Killorn received the same $5,000 fine in the same game as Stamkos’ and Hayes’ water fight for viciously jabbing Hayes until he received a slashing penalty. J.T. Brown and Steven Kampfer then riled up the benches with a long, intense fight and received no additional penalty minutes outside their matching majors and no fines. In a separate instance the other night, Patrick Kane also received a $5,000 fine. His offense: this two-handed swinging slash on Nick Ritchie which could have been much worse had it landed cleanly.
The curious thing about all of these fines is that they are the maximum under the NHL CBA. This came up earlier in the season as well, when Robert Bortuzzo‘s received the max fine of just over $3,000 for pinning down and repeatedly cross-checking Brock Nelson. So in summary, water squirting has been a fine-able offense three times this season, and for the same maximum amount as slashing and more than the maximum amount for cross-checking.
Then, there are suspensions. The ten-game ban for perennial bad guy Radko Gudas was well-earned, while the ten-game suspension for leaving the bench handed out to Luke Witkowski is a tried and true policy. Yet, Witkowski was responding to this jab from Matthew Tkachuk which more or less also happened off the ice. For that offense, Tkachuk received only a one-game suspension. As minor a “spear” as it might have been, Tkachuk still made contact with a player off the ice, but the NHL thought Witkowski stepping back on the ice to have words with Tkachuk was ten times worse? Tkachuk was back in the spotlight the other night, drawing a four-game suspension for Gabriel Landeskog, who NHL Player Safety even acknowledged was not intending to hurt Tkachuk, so much as get him away from the puck.
On it’s face, the NHL’s fines and suspensions – a product of both the league and NHLPA – seem inconsistent at best. But what say you? Do you think these are isolated incidents? Or a pattern of inequitable punishment?
[Mobile users click here to vote!]
Gabriel Landeskog Suspended Four Games For Cross-Checking
The decision has come down on Gabriel Landeskog, and the NHL Department of Player Safety has suspended the Colorado Avalanche forward for four games. Landeskog earned the suspension for cross-checking Calgary Flames forward Matthew Tkachuk in the neck/head during Saturday night’s game.
This isn’t the first time Landeskog has been involved in a cross-checking incident, as the video explanation from the DoPS notes:
Although he is no long considered a repeat offender as defined by the CBA, it is important to note that Gabriel Landeskog has previously been suspended three games for a similar act in March of 2016.
That history led to a longer suspension this time around, but it won’t cost him any extra money. As Frank Seravalli of TSN points out, had he been suspended before his “repeat offender clock” ran in early September, he would have lost another $151,961 for this ban. Landeskog was actually suspended twice during that 2015-16 season, including a two-game ban for a blindside check to the head of Brad Marchand. His history is quite checkered with the league now, and will continue to see severe penalties handed down for any future incidents.
Amazingly, Tkachuk has now been the “victim” of two different suspend-able actions this season. He was the player who prompted Luke Witkowski to leave the bench after being ejected, earning the Red Wings’ player a ten-game ban earlier this month. Tkachuk has quite the reputation for getting under the skin of his opponents, and also leads the league in drawn minor penalties. Teams will have to make sure they don’t lose their cool when he’s on the ice, instead of continually playing into his hands and giving the Flames an advantage.
Central Notes: Jost, Landeskog, Mason, Berglund
8:43 PM: Colorado has indeed recalled Jost, the team announced via Twitter.
6:53PM: The Avalanche are considering recalling center Tyson Jost from San Antonio of the AHL in advance of their next game on Wednesday, Mike Chambers of the Denver Post reports (Twitter link). Jost cracked Colorado’s opening roster but didn’t have too much of an impact early on. He played in six games before sustaining a lower-body injury and upon being activated off IR, the team opted to send him down to the minors for more playing time. Jost hasn’t been particularly productive in his limited action with the Rampage, posting a single assist in four games. Unless he takes on an important role in the next few weeks, Jost could still wind up being a candidate to play at the World Juniors.
Elsewhere in the Central:
- Still with the Avalanche, winger Gabriel Landeskog will have a disciplinary hearing on Monday for a cross-checking incident on Saturday against Calgary’s Matthew Tkachuk, the league announced. A minor penalty was assessed on the play. What may work against Landeskog here is that he will be viewed as a repeat offender as he received a three-game suspension for cross-checking on March of 2016.
- Jets goaltender Steve Mason was pulled from Saturday’s game with an upper-body injury that that may wind up being a concussion, notes Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Sun. If he is going to miss time, the scribe suggests it may make more sense to recall veteran Michael Hutchinson over top prospect Eric Comrie as Winnipeg’s schedule is fairly light over the next couple of weeks so there won’t be many opportunities for playing time.
- While Blues center Patrik Berglund started skating with the team a little while ago, he has yet to get the green light to return to the lineup. He told Tom Timmermann of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that getting strength back in his shoulder is the key to his return and that the process is getting closer by the day. He was originally expected to return at the beginning of December and he remains on pace to do so.
Central Notes: Landeskog, Ritchie, Edmundson
While Matt Duchene drew most of the trade attention dating back to last season, team captain Gabriel Landeskog was also suggested as someone that the Avalanche might also be willing to move. With the team getting off to a better start this season though, TSN’s Bob McKenzie stated to TSN 1200 (audio link) that Colorado may not be as willing to move him now even though the team is still “somewhat open for business”. Although this is already his seventh season in the NHL, Landeskog is still only 24 and could very easily still be part of their long-term plans. He’s off to a much better start this season with 11 points in his first 15 games. For perspective, it took him until December 27th to hit 11 points last year.
Elsewhere in the Central:
- The Stars have activated Brett Ritchie off injured reserve, reports Mark Stepneski of Stars Inside Edge via Twitter. He has yet to play this month after sustaining an upper-body injury and had a goal and an assist in 12 October contests. To make room for him on the roster, Dallas transferred winger Tyler Pitlick to IR, retroactive to November 4th. Backdating the placement that far back means that he can be reactivated as early as Saturday.
- Blues defenseman Joel Edmundson is off to a strong start this season. He already has surpassed his goal total from the last two years combined while leading the league in blocked shots. As a result, he’s setting himself up for a nice day as an RFA with arbitration rights this summer. In a reader chat, Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggests that the eight-year, $39MM deal that Florida gave Michael Matheson earlier this season could be a comparable contract that comes up in negotiations. Anything even close to that would certainly represent a big raise over his $1.2MM salary this season that also represents his qualifying offer next summer.
Avalanche Notes: Sakic, Defense, Long-Term Deals
Colorado Avalanche general manager Joe Sakic has been at the helm now for six years. His team has spiraled downward and hit rock bottom last year with a league’s worst 22-56-4 record, worth 48 points. To make matters worse, the team only has a handful of prospects and don’t seem to have a plan or path to take the franchise on.
According to NBC Sports’ Adam Gretz, Sakic is a likely candidate to be on the hotseat this season. The team’s lack of a proper path, constant roster questions that seem to be held up by a potential Matt Duchene trade that has never happened and a shortcoming of prospects seem to suggest that he may be the first general manager out the door this season. To make matters worse, the Avalanche have had the worst defense in the league for the past two years, according to Gretz, and have made no defensive changes this year.
- The Avalanche still have quite a few questions when it comes to its roster. Although the team is currently negotiating with defenseman Nikita Zadorov, the Avalanche only have three defensemen on their roster, including Erik Johnson, Tyson Barrie and Mark Barberio, according to NBC Sports James O’Brien. With more than $11MM in cap space still remaining, Colorado has the ability to acquire more players and depth. However, considering their lack of depth, using draft picks to trade for a player makes little sense. That leaves signing leftover free agents to short-term deals, but there are very few defensive free agents of note. Trading Matt Duchene may be their best way to fill in some of those holes.
- O’Brien also points out that, on a positive note, that the Avalanche have very few long-term deals, which should give the team quite a bit of flexibility. Only Nathan MacKinnon ($6.3MM AAV till 2022-23), Gabriel Landeskog ($5.57MM AAV till 2020-21), Carl Soderberg ($4.75MM AAV till 2019-20), Johnson ($6MM AAV till 2022-23) and Barrie ($5.5MM AAV till 2019-20) are locked up for the next three years.
PHR Mailbag: Duchene, Kessel, Hurricanes, Bruins
We’ve been taking your off-season inquiries over the weekend in the comments and using #PHRMailbag on Twitter. Here are some questions and answers to ponder:
Conorsoxfan: Is Matt Duchene still going to be moved? What about Landeskog? Are the Avs waiting for the right offer or are they holding on to all their assets for now?
We received several questions about Matt Duchene and for good reason. The Avalanche have been speaking with teams since the Trade Deadline about moving the talented forward and Duchene himself is on record as saying that he is open to a move, but months later he is still in Colorado. It seems that GM Joe Sakic has a very specific (and lofty) return in mind and is hesitant to move Duchene without getting exactly what he wants. That return certainly includes a young, proven defenseman, which is not exactly a commodity that most teams are eager to move. The Columbus Blue Jackets and Carolina Hurricanes seem like they have the best chance of meeting Sakic’s demands, as both teams are loaded with young, NHL-ready defenseman. However, the rumor that Colorado rejected a deal for Travis Hamonic that included Duchene makes you wonder if Sakic is searching for a caliber of player that is simply unavailable. It would be best for Duchene, the Avs, and the rest of the NHL trade market if a deal would get done sooner rather than later, but don’t be surprised if Duchene is still a talking point at the next Trade Deadline.
As for Gabriel Landeskog, rumors of his deaparture have definitely been on the back burner this summer after he too was hot topic at the Trade Deadline. Although the Avalanche are coming off a historically bad season, they seem to be playing it safe with their rebuild. They have not sold off all of their veteran pieces, nor have they operated like a team that’s pushing for a playoff spot. Their only major additions this season are a backup goaltender, Jonathan Bernier, and a low risk-high reward gamble, Nail Yakupov. They got potentially the best player in the draft at #4 overall in defenseman Cale Makar, but he is at least two seasons away from seeing NHL ice time. It seems that Sakic is content with keeping his roster intact and slowly adding in younger players and moving out older pieces. That type of status quo strategy would seem to indicate that Colorado isn’t keen on losing its captain unless the return could truly change the course of the franchise. Especially if Duchene does end up traded, don’t expect Landeskog to follow. He’s likely to remain in Colorado for the time being.
@Wings16Canes13: When and will Pittsburgh trade Kessel? Or does another coach have to go first?
It always seems like there’s some controversy surrounding Phil Kessel. This question alludes to rumors coming out of Pittsburgh that the uber-talented winger and head coach Mike Sullivan don’t see eye-to-eye on many things. Moreover, it’s been said that assistant Rick Tocchet acted as go-between for the two these past two seasons, and with Tocchet likely headed to Arizona as the head coach of the Coyotes, the relationship between Kessel and Sullivan could get worse. However, the Pittsburgh Penguins are also back-to-back Stanley Cup champs, with both Kessel and Sullivan playing major roles in each title. Neither is likely to be on the move any time soon, especially not because they dislike each other. It may not be the most comfortable locker room, but the two will learn to live with each other and any struggles for the Penguins in 2017-18 will be attributed to Stanley Cup hangover, not a feuding coach and player. With that said, Kessel has a $6.8MM cap hit for five more years, which could cause cap trouble down the road for the Penguins, while the team has also shown a willingness to move on from head coaches after just a down season or two. Both Kessel and Sullivan could be gone in a few years, but it’s impossible to know which first and when, only that it’s highly unlikely to be this year.
mikedickinson: Hurricanes are loaded on defense and have three kids who can play in the AHL as well. They aren’t trading any of their top 4. Can they trade from their strength to address a weakness (center)? Also, JVR to Raleigh to play with his brother?
The Carolina Hurricanes boast one of the youngest, deepest, and most talented defensive corps in the entire league. All-Star Justin Faulk leads a group that includes 2015 #5 pick Noah Hanifin, 2012 fourth-rounder Jaccob Slavin, 2013 third-rounder Brett Pesce, 2014 #7 pick Haydn Fleury, 2014 second-rounder Roland McKeown, and now the recently-acquired Trevor van Riemsdyk, not to mention dependable depth defender Klas Dahlbeck and 2016-17 AHL surprise Jake Chelios. There’s also 2016 first-rounder Jake Bean to consider as well, though he remains in juniors. That group has one thing in common: none of them are more than 26 years old. When the Hurricanes acquired van Riemsdyk from the Vegas Golden Knights last month, many felt that the move indicated that Faulk, the team’s top right-shot defenseman, would be on the move. After all, the team has been linked to Matt Duchene as well as others as they try to bring their forward depth up to the same level as their defense. However, GM Ron Francis has stated since that he wants to keep his starters together. It also seems unlikely that he’s keen to move talented teenager Bean, leaving promising, but slowly developing players like Fleury, McKeown, and Chelios as his top trade chips from the blue line. None of those players will get a Duchene or similar-caliber player, but don’t be surprised if the ‘Canes use them to add some depth forwards this off-season or along the way next season. If Francis is posturing, then yes any of Faulk, Hanafin, Slavin, or Pesce could be used to bring in a big fish.
As for James van Riemsdyk, it is an interesting development to have his brother in Carolina, an up-and-coming team (like the Maple Leafs) that’s in need of an impact forward. JVR is entering the final year of his contract and it seems unlikely that Toronto will re-sign him, considering the expensive extensions coming down the line for Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander. The question then becomes whether or not the Leafs are interested in moving him this off-season and whether the Hurricanes are willing to pay the price for his services this year when they can sign him next summer for free. If the Leafs look to deal him, Fleury or McKeown as the centerpieces likely won’t cut it. The Leafs are on the hunt for a top-pair right-shot to pair with Morgan Rielly and Faulk certainly fits the bill, but that’s a high price to pay for an impending free agent. I think you’re on to something with JVR and TVR teaming up in Carolina, but I think it could come at a lower price toward the Trade Deadline or via free agency next off-season.
mpfallon: Will the bruins make some big offseason moves?
This depends on your definition of “big”. Despite rumors that the Bruins have been looking into acquiring a top-four left-handed defenseman and a top-six winger, GM Don Sweeney has also made it clear that he doesn’t want to acquire players that will block Boston’s talented young prospects. College star Anders Bjork, 2015 first-rounder Jake DeBrusk, Peter Cehlarik, who got a taste of the NHL last year, and possibly even Danton Heinen and Jesse Gabrielle will all compete with Frank Vatrano, Matt Beleskey, and recent signing Kenny Agostino for a top-nine spot on the left side, and Ryan Spooner could join the mix if the B’s prefer rookie Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson at third line center. The left wing battle could spill over to the right side as well, where top forward prospect Zach Senyshyn will also look to make the team. On the blue line, Rob O’Gara, Jakub Zboril, and Jeremy Lauzon will all fight for the final spot on the left side, and the recent signing of Paul Postma could indicate that the team is okay with moving Kevan Miller to the left side to free up a spot for Adam McQuaid to continue to be a starter with Postma as the seventh man.
There is more than enough depth in Boston that the Bruins may make no moves for the rest of the off-season. Odds are that they do something, but likely not anything “big”. A trade for a left-shot defenseman, possibly a Nick Holden or Jonathan Ericsson, or the signing of a stopgap winger, like Drew Stafford, Thomas Vanek, or Alex Chiasson seems possible, but anything bigger could be a long shot. So the short answer to your question is no, they won’t make “big off-season moves”. They could make a small, but significant move or two, but chances are a big trade would come closer to the Trade Deadline after they give the kids a shot first.
Course Adjustment For Colorado
Colorado needs to determine the road ahead for its franchise. The unexpected plummet to the 4th overall pick in the draft lottery did not help matters, to be sure, but the Avalanche need more than a Nolan Patrick to catapult them back into contention. The team has lacked identity for years and a team philosophy is hard to isolate. The team finished a league worst 22 wins, good for an embarrassingly bad 48 points. They were not expected to be serious cup contenders coming into the year, but this is a team that had veteran scorers and a decent goaltending duo to back up their young forward core. Yet they finished in dead last in both offensive and defensive categories – 1.74 goals for per 60, and 2.93 goals against. With such an incredible disparity it’s actually impressive they won as many contests as they did.
GM Joe Sakic needs to determine which pieces of his core (if any) are worth keeping. It seems probable that the team could consider trading away its captain in Gabriel Landeskog, and the case for doing so is strong. He potted only 18 goals and 15 assists this season, his 5th full campaign – at the exorbitant price of $5.5 MM (which will become $6 MM next season). The center has never developed into the offensive threat the franchise had hoped when he was selected 2nd overall in 2011. His point totals have dropped for the second season in a row. However, his Corsi For % was actually his career best at 52.8, and on a team that bled goals and chances, he performed admirably in his own end. Whether he is worth his deal is certainly a less pressing issue than stopping the bleeding. Unless an over-payment comes along the Avalanche would be wise to stick out at least another season with the still-promising left wing.
Speedy forward Matt Duchene is two years older, and fared only marginally better, with 18 goals and 23 assists. Duchene is not physically imposing a 5’11”, and he is more effective on the rush. His speed and versatility are his greatest assets. Duchene’s skating can burn defenders and his skating is among the tops in the league. When considering that the quick and fleet-footed Nathan MacKinnon is also on the team, it seems that Colorado might want to double down on the speed aspect of their negligible identity. Duchene would almost certainly draw more interest than Landeskog, as the forward did pot 30 goals just the previous season. Although the talk seems distant now, there was considerable conversation following the 2009 draft that the Islanders would have done better to draft Duchene than John Tavares. This is a player who can make a meaningful difference on the playmaking side of things, but saw a drastic drop off in play. Trading Duchene seems the most logical option, but his departure will only leave the center ice position more lackluster.
The Avalanche could toy with moving RFA center Mikhail Grigorenko, or RFA defenseman Patrick Wiercioch, but the returns after last season would be marginal at best. One can only assume that Sakicc attempted to unload forwards like Blake Comeau ($2.5 MM), and now UFA defenseman Fedor Tyutin to no avail. Thankfully the well-worn Jarome Iginla was shipped off to Los Angeles and there are indeed older players coming off the books. The 35 year-old Rene Bourque and 32 year-old John Mitchell will both be UFAs and will have difficulty finding work next season in the league.
Ultimately, the problem for the Avalanche wasn’t that their stars didn’t produce, although that certainly didn’t help their goal totals. Their team was filled with washed-up veterans and outside of the big 3 on offense there was really no threat to score. On the backend, once Erik Johnson went down, the rest of the defense was not nearly good enough to keep up. Tyson Barrie is the only player who should feel remotely safe, and the young RFA Nikita Zadorov is likely to hang around. Francois Beauchemin is not the defender he was even two seasons ago, and if he could somehow be traded it would help performance substantially.
Trading away the #4 selection is usually an unthinkable notion with a team at this stage of a rebuild, but if they can move it for substantial help on defense or on the wing, it should be considered. Especially considering how mediocre this draft class is, it might turn out to be a prudent maneuver. One of Landeskog or Duchene seems likely to depart, but without a king’s ransom coming back, it’s not likely to alter long-term prospects for the franchise. Colorado simply needs to draft better, develop better, and find a coach with the structure that a young, struggling squad will need. If they could make a serious pitch to Karl Alzner this off-season, or perhaps even Thomas Vanek on the wing, they would be in a better position to compete on a nightly basis. Their offensive stars are unlikely to be quite as dreadful in points production yet again. Perhaps the most positive aspect of the upcoming season will be the infusion of youth from the minor leagues, and the ditching of dead weight up and down the lineup. Sakic will need to provide stability for the franchise and perhaps even display some patience rather than dumping a slumping offensive talent for a lackluster package. Although fans may wish for change at any cost, ditching their core players for scraps is not likely the best way forward. Whatever course Colorado decides to take, fans around the league will be watching with interest this summer.