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Free Agent Profile: Zack Kassian

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Zack Kassian had one of the lowest-scoring seasons we’ve seen in quite some time as he put up just two goals last season in 51 games with the Arizona Coyotes. This prompted Arizona to buy out the 32-year-old forward prior to free agency in a move that made sense, given the lack of production from the former 13th overall pick. Kassian lasted just a single season in the desert and never really seemed comfortable playing on a very bad Coyotes team.

This is Kassian’s first crack at free agency and unfortunately for him he is coming off a season in which he posted career lows in many statistical categories. As mentioned earlier, he had just two points on the season, and posted a -18. His hitting was way down, which is one of the facets of the game he typically excels in. Kassian threw just 32 hits in 51 games last season, a dramatic drop from the 158 he threw the year prior with the Edmonton Oilers in 58 games. It’s not uncommon for physical players to see a decline in their 30’s, but the decline generally isn’t that steep.

Kassian deserves a ton of credit for battling several off-ice issues and resurrecting his career when it looked like it could be in trouble. At one point in 2015 Kassian bounced from Vancouver to Montreal to Edmonton in less than six months and looked like he could be out of the league. But, to his credit, he turned it around and even managed to post career highs in 2019-20 when he potted 15 goals to go along with 19 assists in 59 games. This run of good play prompted the Oilers to sign Kassian to a four-year contract extension in January 2020 worth $3.2MM annually. Unfortunately for the club and the player, Kassian struggled through the pandemic shortened 2020-21 season and hasn’t regained his footing ever since. Over the past three seasons combined Kassian has posted just 10 goals and 16 assists in 136 games, a drastic decline from his 2019-2020 numbers. The other issue that will work against Kassian is that he is strictly a 5 on 5 player. He has never been a regular contributor on the power play and hasn’t been a regular part of a penalty kill since 2018-19.

In a normal cap world, Kassian would have played out the final season of his contract with a salary that is well below his cap hit but given how poor his play was Arizona opted to move on and spread out that cost over two seasons.

Despite his struggles last season, it is still likely that Kassian will get an opportunity when training camps open in a few weeks. Teams are always looking for physical players, especially ones who can take a regular shift and will play under a reduced cap hit. Kassian checks all those boxes, which is a good indication that someone will give the Windsor, Ontario native a look to see if he still has anything to offer.

Stats

2022-23: 51 GP, 2-0-0, -18 rating, 50 PIMS, 25 shots, 37.5% faceoffs, 38.4% CF, 9:09 ATOI
Career: 661 GP, 92-111-203, -55 rating, 913 PIMS, 798 shots, 31.0% faceoffs, 48.2% CF, 12:37 ATOI

Potential Suitors

Kassian is still chasing hockey’s ultimate prize, the Stanley Cup. And after spending a dozen years in the league, he would probably prefer to spend his time chasing a championship with a Stanley Cup contender. However, given his status as a fringe NHLer at the moment, he likely won’t have the opportunity to be choosey. That doesn’t mean he won’t have a suitor, but it could mean that he would be playing on a weaker team, or a team that has a borderline chance of making the playoffs. But anything can happen, and even players that are past their best before date can catch on with good teams when it is least expected.

Let’s start out West in Edmonton. Kassian found his game almost eight years ago when it looked like his career was hanging on by a thread. It was there that he turned his intensity and physicality into effective NHL minutes on a team that was competitive for most of his run there. Kassian brought an edge that the Oilers severely lacked and gave them an option that they could plug almost anywhere in their lineup. But that was then, and this is now, and Kassian isn’t that player anymore. His body has broken down, as per normal with physical players when they hit the wrong side of 30. But Kassian could still help Edmonton, and it feels like the Oilers are always looking for bodies up front. Kassian couldn’t play in Edmonton’s top-9, but he could be a could fill-in for their fourth line if they aren’t able to find help between now and the start of the regular season.

Sticking with the West, the Colorado Avalanche were riddled with injuries last season. So much so that it looked like they might miss the playoffs entirely, however, a late-season rally secured their spot in the round of 16. But it was there that they were physically dominated by the Seattle Kraken and ousted in an exhilarating seventh game. The Avalanche were one of the lightest-hitting teams in the NHL last season, which on the surface isn’t the big of a deal given how skilled they are. However, the regular season and the playoffs are two different things and Colorado didn’t have an answer for Seattle in the postseason and really missed some of the grit they lost when Nazim Kadri departed last summer. Now, Zack Kassian is far from the answer to that problem, but he can offer Colorado something that is in short supply in their group, and it wouldn’t cost them more than a contract slot and a league minimum contract.

Finally, in the East, one team that could use a depth physical forward is the Buffalo Sabres. Coincidently, the team that took Kassian in the first round of the NHL entry draft some 14 years ago. The Sabres have a competent fourth line at the moment with Tyson Jost centering Kyle Okposo and Zemgus Girgensons, but injuries happen (see Jack Quinn), and Kassian could provide insurance to their Sabres if they were to lose any additional depth up front. The Sabres were also a team that didn’t throw the body around all that often-last year and with the talent that they have up front, they could likely place Kassian into a role that wouldn’t overextend him and could allow him to perhaps resurrect his career once again.

Projected Contract

Kassian enters free agency at a time when his free agent stock is very damaged. And while he has his shortcomings, he still offers a rare combination of physicality mixed with a bit of skill and could find success when he is sheltered in the right situation.

At this point in his career Kassian would be lucky to get a one-way contract for the league minimum of $775K. The most likely outcome for him will be a PTO with a team that is looking to add a 13th forward that offers some sandpaper and can chip in on the fourth line when a regular falls out of the lineup. A role like that would allow Kassian to play to his strengths and would offer longer windows of recovery for an aging player who has been banged up from years of throwing his body around with reckless abandon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arizona Coyotes Extend André Tourigny

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August 23: Arizona has confirmed Tourigny’s extension, which lasts for three years.

August 22: Craig Morgan of PHNX Sports is reporting that the Arizona Coyotes have officially signed head coach André Tourigny to a contract extension. It was reported earlier this month that the two sides were involved in negotiations and that a deal was close, but sources now tell Morgan it is completed.

At the time of the negotiations, Morgan reported that the holdup was Tourigny’s desire to get extensions in place for his coaching staff as well as himself – something that has reportedly been accomplished as the Coyotes have also locked up John Madden, Mario Duhamel and goalie coach Corey Schwab to extensions.

A native of Trois-Rivières, Quebec, Tourigny is about to embark on his third season at the helm of the Coyotes. And while his 53-90-21 record with Arizona is ugly on the surface, he has been guiding a roster that largely consists of prospects and castoffs. But record aside, Tourigny has done a good job keeping the group competitive on most nights and fostering a culture that must be positive given that several players who have been traded away previously have elected to return when they hit free agency.

No terms of the new contract have been released, but it should make the upcoming season more comfortable for Tourigny and his staff as they start a season where there will be expectations on the club to win some games. Arizona has been one of the busier teams in the off-season, swinging a trade for Sean Durzi and signing Jason Zucker, Alexander Kerfoot, Matt Dumba, and Nick Bjugstad.

Tourigny hasn’t had pressure to win thus far in his reign as the head coach of the Coyotes, but with a new contract in hand, and some serious depth added to the lineup, the pressure will begin to mount for Tourigny and Arizona to win some games.

Can The Pittsburgh Penguins Actually Sign Tomas Tatar?

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There aren’t many impact unsigned free agents remaining at this point in the offseason, but one name of note is forward Tomas Tatar. Tatar has been linked to several teams, including the Buffalo Sabres as an inexpensive replacement for the injured Jack Quinn. One team that popped up in the rumor mill last week was the Pittsburgh Penguins. Rob Rossi of The Athletic wrote that the Penguins were keenly interested but it all came down to whether Tatar would get a guaranteed contract offer elsewhere as the Penguins appeared to be offering a PTO for training camp in Pittsburgh with the expectation of a contract after. But can the Penguins realistically fit in another contract for a player coming off a season in which he scored 20 goals and 28 assists in 82 games?

In most off-seasons, the answer to that question would be an emphatic no. But the summer of 2023 has been unlike any other offseason. Players like Blake Wheeler have signed for less than $1MM annually. Matt Duchene took a one-year contract for $3MM despite being a year removed from topping 80 points, and Tatar remains unsigned despite providing consistent secondary scoring.

But all of this doesn’t necessarily mean the answer is a resounding yes, the Penguins would need to do some cap gymnastics to fit Tatar into the sliver of room they have under the salary cap ceiling. Currently, the Penguins have just north of $220K, which is obviously well below the NHL minimum.

Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas has said previously that he would use waivers as a means of becoming cap compliant, and the Penguins have plenty of players who could be placed on waivers to open up room for Tatar. Alexander Nylander and Rem Pitlick are two players that could be exposed and sent to the AHL to open up the room, but would that be enough to sign Tatar? The answer is a giant unknown at this time, but as we inch closer to training camp it becomes more and more possible.

Dan Kingerski of Pittsburgh Hockey Now explored another idea in an article as he wondered if a potential Jeff Carter trade would be possible. The 38-year-old London, Ontario native is in the final year of his contract with a cap hit of $3.125MM and is coming off a season in which he scored just 13 goals and 16 assists in 79 games and looked lost at times both offensively and defensively. Kingerski provides options in the article, the most interesting of which would have the Penguins retain 50% of Carter’s contract and staple a second-round pick to him to facilitate a move. While this scenario seems possible, the biggest caveat to a potential deal would be Carter’s full no-movement clause. Given all these moving parts, it seems unlikely any contending team would have room to take on even half of Carter’s cap hit and even less likely that Carter would waive his no-move to make it happen. Kyle Dubas has worked one miracle this summer in moving out Jeff Petry and Mikael Granlund for Erik Karlsson, but can he make another one happen?

Much like the Karlsson situation it feels like the longer this drags out the likelier it becomes the player ends up with the Penguins. But to make it happen Tatar is going to have to take a massive pay cut and perhaps accept just a one-year contract. A far cry from the $3.3MM annually that Daily Faceoff projected he would get on a three-year deal when free agency opened.

Trade Market Quiet For Noah Hanifin

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It appears that the holdup for a potential Noah Hanifin trade has been due to an underwhelming trade market. This comes from Sportsnet 960’s Pat Steinberg who also reported a few days ago that the trade market had been soft this summer for one of the Calgary Flames’ other trade chips Mikael Backlund.

Both Backlund and Hanifin will be free agents next summer, and while Backlund expressed an interest in seeing the season play out before signing an extension, Hanifin has said he doesn’t plan to sign a deal to extend his stay in Calgary.

Under normal circumstances, a 26-year-old first-pairing defenseman would be highly coveted, but as Steinberg reports, the Flames just haven’t received any strong offers. The Pittsburgh Penguins reportedly had interest earlier in the summer, but nothing ever materialized on the trade front, and given their pursuit of Erik Karlsson one must wonder if Penguins general manager used Calgary as leverage to get a better deal for Pittsburgh.

Lyle Richardson of The Hockey News wrote today that when the deal for Karlsson happened there was an expectation that there would be movement on the Hanifin front, but it has yet to materialize. He also speculates that perhaps the Flames will keep the rearguard until the March trade deadline when more teams will have accrued cap space due to injuries.

On the ice, Hanifin has been everything Calgary could have hoped for when they acquired him from the Carolina Hurricanes in a 2018 trade. He has averaged over 21 minutes a night during his time in Calgary and has put up 31 goals and 125 assists in 359 games with the Flames. Any potential team that acquires the Boston native would be getting a player capable of playing first-pairing minutes or being an exceptional second-pairing defenseman. Hanifin is an excellent skater and can generally be counted on for 35-40 points per season. He is in the final year of a contract that carries a $4.95MM cap hit and reportedly has an 8-team modified no-trade clause, meaning that Calgary has quite a few options to facilitate a potential move.

At the beginning of the summer, it looked as though the Flames would be busy in the trade market with several players approaching free agency. But, thus far general manager Craig Conroy has been quiet and may just start the season with several prominent free agents. It will make for interesting theatre as Flames fans don’t have to look back far to remember the exodus of top-end talent in the summer of 2022 that saw Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk take their talents south of the border. Calgary can ill afford to lose more high-end players for nothing and will likely be looking to make a flurry of moves in-season unless something materializes in the upcoming weeks.

All Reserve List Expirees On August 15th

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Originally published August 8. Updated to reflect Harrison Blaisdell is returning to the University of New Hampshire for a fifth season, meaning the Winnipeg Jets will retain his rights until August 15, 2024.

Per the Collective Bargaining Agreement between the National Hockey League and its Players Association, every year on August 15th, certain players (if parameters are met) become unrestricted free agents at 5 pm ET. If a college-drafted player has not received a bona fide offer, and graduates from a four-year university, that player will have the freedom of pursuing a different organization via unrestricted free agency.

This does not typically happen for some of the higher-profile college-drafted prospects around the league, but has happened before most notably in the case of Kevin Hayes and Jimmy Vesey. This year, nine players find themselves headed for unrestricted free agency a week today:

F – John Farinacci (Arizona Coyotes, 76th overall, 2019)
F – Demetrios Koumontzis (Calgary Flames, 108th overall, 2018)
F – Kevin Wall (Carolina Hurricanes, 181st overall, 2019)
F – Jake Wise (Chicago Blackhawks, 69th overall, 2018)
F – Robert Mastrosimone (Detroit Red Wings, 54th overall, 2019)
F – Jay O’Brien (Philadelphia Flyers, 19th overall, 2018)
D – Ryan O’Connell (Toronto Maple Leafs, 203rd overall, 2017)
G – Jared Moe (Winnipeg Jets, 184th overall, 2018)

These players are seeing their NHL signing rights expire but have signed ECHL, AHL, or European contracts for the 2023-24 season:

D – Robbie Stucker (Columbus Blue Jackets, 210th overall, 2017) – Signed with ECHL Iowa
F – Skyler Brind’Amour (Edmonton Oilers, 177th overall, 2017) – Signed with AHL Charlotte
D – Christian Krygier (New York Islanders, 196th overall, 2018) – Signed with AHL Bridgeport
F – Jacob Pivonka (New York Islanders, 103rd overall, 2018) – Signed with AHL Bridgeport
F – Jakov Novak (Ottawa Senators, 188th overall, 2018) – Signed with AHL Laval
D – Jonny Tychonick (Ottawa Senators, 48th overall, 2018) – Signed with AHL Toronto
D – Arvid Henrikson (San Jose Sharks, 187th overall, 2016) – Signed with Västerviks IK in the HockeyAllsvenskan

An abundance of these individual players are destined for AHL or ECHL agreements for the 2023-24 season if they are able to play anywhere, but there are several that should garner some significant interest on the market leading up to training camp in September. The immediate being O’Brien, a recent graduate from Boston University, who tore up his United States Preparatory High School league in his draft year. Originally committing to Providence College, O’Brien would transfer to Boston for the last three years of his collegiate career.

In 79 total games with the Terriers, O’Brien put up 26 goals and 44 assists, nothing to shake your head about in the NCAA. O’Brien may not be ready for NHL minutes just yet, but there should be plenty of rebuilding clubs ready and waiting to give him a shot for next season.

Wise will also be another interesting name to keep an eye on in a week’s time. Originally committing to Boston University, his collegiate career did not get off to a great start with the club, and Wise transferred to Ohio State University for the remainder of his collegiate career. In his final season in the NCAA, Wise had a tremendous season, scoring 12 goals and 27 assists in 39 games. Garnering Second-Team All Big 10 honors for the 2022-23 season, Wise helped OSU make it all the way to the Frozen Four quarterfinals, losing to the eventual champions, Quinnipiac University.

Lastly, Mastrosimone is likely the player on this list most ready to crack an NHL roster next season. Originally looking to be a solid draft pick by the Red Wings back in 2019, the beginning of his college career with Boston University soured any chance of the team offering up a contract. In his final year of NCAA eligibility, Mastrosimone excelled, scoring 11 goals and 31 assists in 38 games for the Arizona State University Sun Devils.

One of the biggest knocks on Mastrosimone is his size, standing at 5’10” and 170 pounds, but his skill is apparently ready. The NHL is not as big on size as it had been previously, but some clubs may want him to fill out a bit more before giving him meaningful minutes.

Free Agent Profile: Jaroslav Halak

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Jaroslav Halak has been on quite the journey since he led the Montreal Canadiens to back-to-back playoff upsets of the President’s Trophy winning Washington Capitals and defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins back in 2010. Halak was so effective in that run to the Conference Finals that many Canadiens fans wanted the team to keep him and trade his partner, Carey Price. Montreal opted to keep Price and shipped Halak to the St. Louis Blues for a package that included Lars Eller.

The early returns in St. Louis were good as Halak was solid in his first season with the Blues and even better in year two when he and Brian Elliott won the William M. Jennings Trophy for the fewest goals against in the league. That year Halak also garnered Vezina Trophy votes and ultimately finished sixth in voting as he sported a stellar .926 save percentage and a 1.97 goals-against average.

Eventually, the shine wore off in St. Louis and Halak lost the net to Elliot and was traded to the Washington Capitals midway through the 2013-14 campaign. He played well for the Capitals in limited action but the team ultimately missed the playoffs.

That summer, the Bratislava, Czechoslovakia native signed a four-year deal with the New York Islanders with an annual cap hit of $4.5M. The Islanders received excellent goaltending from Halak in his first season with the team as he went 38-17-4 with a .914 save percentage and a 2.43 goals-against average. In fact, through his first three years on Long Island Halak posted a save percentage above .910 every year, and kept his quality starts percentage over 50%, which means his save percentage was above the average more often than not.

It was in the final year of his contract with the Islanders that the cracks started to show in Halak’s game as he struggled in 2017-18 and posted the worst numbers of his career up to that point with a .908 save percentage and a 3.19 goals-against average.

Understanding that his days as a starter were likely ending, Halak signed a two-year deal with the Boston Bruins to back-up Tuukka Rask. Halak ended up playing in almost half of Boston’s games that year and outplayed Rask for large portions of the season in what was one of the best years of Halak’s career as he went 22-11-4 with a save percentage of .922 and a goals-against average of 2.34. Halak would win another Jennings Trophy the following year posting a .919 save percentage in what was another fantastic campaign for the netminder. That season in Boston, the 2019-20 campaign is the last time that Halak has posted a save percentage over .910.

Since the 2019-20 season, Halak hasn’t been able to be counted on to provide consistent play. Halak hasn’t started more than 25 games in the past three seasons, and although that isn’t entirely his fault thanks to injuries and a pandemic, he has been a tick below average when he has played.

At 38-years-old Halak and 17 seasons into his career, Halak has a lot of miles on his body, but he did indicate a month ago that he would like to continue playing. Halak reportedly talked about an extension with the New York Rangers prior to free agency, but ultimately the Rangers decided to sign Jonathan Quick to be their backup, which is a definite downgrade from Halak at this point. Halak needs just five wins to reach 300 and given his track record he should be presented soon with an opportunity to be a backup next season.

Stats

2022-23: 25 GP, 10-9-5, 2.72 GAA, .903 SV%, 1 SO
Career: 581 GP, 295-189-69, 2.50 GAA, .915 SV%, 53 SO 

Potential Suitors

At Halak’s age he probably isn’t looking to get pummeled with fifty shots every night which means we can likely filter out any rebuilding teams. At first glance, the New Jersey Devils and St. Louis Blues are two teams who have a need for depth in net.

The Devils are a team that feels like they are on the cusp of building something great, their defense is mobile and quick, they can push the pace and defend. Their forward group is skilled, fast, and comes at you in waves. But goaltending is their Achilles heel. The Devils have reportedly shown interest in several goaltending options including Connor Hellebuyck and John Gibson, but both of those goaltenders would require large commitments that the Devils might not want to make. But the Devils do need some help in the crease as they will once again enter this season relying on the tandem of Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid. Both goaltenders are relatively inexperienced, and while they backed the Devils to the second round of the playoffs last season, they might need an extra set of hands to get the club there again. Neither Schmid, nor Vanecek have a history of playing at a high level in the NHL for an extended period, which means that even a league-average goaltender like Halak could give a big boost to the team’s depth chart and offer up a solution should either man falter.

For the St. Louis Blues, they’ve made some interesting moves over the past year but haven’t done much to address their goaltending. It’s fair to say that the Blues goaltending was porous last season. Jordan Binnington, now in the third year of a six-year $36MM contract, hasn’t been good in two seasons posting a 45-41-10 regular season record, with a 3.24 goals-against average and a .897 SV%. If you take a deep dive into his numbers the picture gets even worse, in the last two seasons Binnington has posted a minus-26.6 GSAA, meaning that he gave up almost 27 goals more than the average NHL goalie would on the same number of shots. Couple this with St. Louis deciding to run with rookie Joel Hofer as a backup and you have a potential recipe for disaster for the Blues. No disrespect to Hofer, who had a terrific year with the Springfield Thunderbirds last season in the AHL, but he is inexperienced and is no guarantee to step up should Binnington falter for a third year in a row. Adding a netminder like Halak might give the Blues a good safety net in case one of their two goaltenders were to struggle or get hurt. He wouldn’t cost anything in the way of assets and could give the Blues some peace of mind.

Projected Contract

A month ago, it seemed like a sure thing that Halak would get a one-year NHL deal for a bit over $1MM. Now a month into free agency, I’m not so sure. I think that barring an off-season training injury before training camps open, Halak will have to settle for a number three role on a team with good depth in net, or a PTO. The experienced veteran would provide a good fallback option in a pinch and can give guidance to younger goalies who might be ahead of him on the depth chart.

I’d be surprised at this point if Halak got over $1MM on his next contract, however, with that being said, injuries can create urgency quickly, especially in net. Halak could be the first netminder who gets a call from a team with thin goalie depth after they get stung by the injury bug. Even if this were to happen, Halak is like to end up with a six-figure deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Paul Stastny

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The height of free agency ended a little less than a month ago and once again veteran center Paul Stastny finds himself without an NHL contract heading into next season. Unlike, most younger players Stastny probably isn’t too concerned about financial security as he has made nearly $85MM during his career (CapFriendly). Stastny has also been here before, having waited until August 23rd to sign last summer with the Carolina Hurricanes. Stastny may find himself unsigned late in the offseason once again but given that he is just a year removed from a 45-point season, there is reason to believe he will find an NHL job next year.

Stastny began his career as a perennial 70-point player on a talented but inconsistent Colorado Avalanche team that could never seem to get over the hump. He remained an important top-six piece as his career progressed, but as injuries started to impact his body, he began to descend into a 50–60-point scorer. By the time he signed a four-year $28MM contract as a free agent with the St. Louis Blues in 2014, he had settled in as a 40–50-point contributor that could post solid faceoff results and contribute in other ways. Stastny put up 40 or more points in each of his three and a half seasons with the Blues and was dealt to the Winnipeg Jets at the trade deadline in 2018.

After a cup of coffee in Winnipeg, Stastny signed with the Vegas Golden Knights in the summer of 2018. He spent two years with the team and failed to meet the expectations that came with his three-year $19.5MM contract. Stastny put up 80 points in 121 games with Vegas, but his production didn’t live up to his $6.5MM cap hit and he was traded back to Winnipeg in the 2020 offseason.

Stastny remained a solid center option in his two seasons in Winnipeg and continued to be a consistent 40-point threat despite being in his mid-30’s. Last summer, Stastny was coming off the aforementioned 45-point season and seemed like a good bet to sign a decent one-year deal, but as the height of free agency came and went, Stastny was left without a dance partner and eventually signed a one-year deal with the Carolina Hurricanes for $1.5MM. The deal was good value, although probably a tad below expectations for Carolina as Stastny centered both the third and fourth line at different points during the season.

At the end of the season, the Hurricanes opted to let Stastny go and that’s where we find the 37-year-old today, unsigned and coming off a season in which he put up nine goals and 13 assists in 73 games while averaging a career-low 11:52 of ice-time per game.

Stastny has had a terrific career up to this point, but he is still chasing that elusive Stanley Cup. He seems to have a knack for leaving organizations just as they are on the cusp of winning Lord Stanley as evidenced by his former clubs Colorado, St. Louis, and Vegas all winning championships shortly after his departure.

Now, the Quebec City, Quebec native is in the twilight of his career and is likely looking to sign with a contender. He showed last year that he could be a solid contributor on the bottom two lines and probably has more to give. Teams aren’t going to be lining up like they once were for Stastny’s services, but with two months left until opening night, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic that he will find a landing spot before the first week in October.

Stats

2022-23: 73 GP, 9-13-22, +4 rating, 16 PIMS, 80 shots, 57.6% faceoffs, 60.9% CF, 11:52 ATOI
Career: 1145 GP, 293-529-822, +43 rating, 500 PIMS, 2326 shots, 54.2% faceoffs, 52.2% CF, 18:27 ATOI

Potential Suitors

It seems that teams are always looking for help at center, which makes Stastny’s status a bit surprising this late in the offseason. While he is hardly the only pivot that is unsigned, he is probably the best of the leftovers. For Stastny, if he does choose to continue his career, he will be looking for a situation where he is a good fit. He never quite found a groove in Carolina, and despite playing on an excellent team, he did seem frustrated at times. He also fell out of favor with the coaching staff for brief periods, evidenced by his benching when the team opted to use Derek Stepan in his spot.

Let’s start in the East. The Buffalo Sabres have several players that are over the age of 35 and while Stastny isn’t going to push the team into the next stratosphere, he could be a nice stopgap for the team as they wait for more of their young prospects to develop into everyday NHLers. The Sabres also need to navigate the injury to Jack Quinn, and while this version of Stastny is no replacement for the youngster, he could be a part of a solution until he returns. Stastny would add a lot of experience and leadership to the Sabres dressing room and could also provide the team with a center who can win most of the draws he takes and will generally help his team control the play when he is on the ice.

In the West, the Edmonton Oilers still need a solid fourth-line center. The club does currently have a few options that they can slot into the lineup in a pinch, but ideally, they would have a pivot that can bring similar skills to that of Stastny. The Oilers don’t need a player that will drive the offense, but they do need capable bottom six players who can play a responsible brand of hockey and dictate play when they are on the ice. Stastny fits the bill having won 57% of his faceoffs last season, and having terrific possession numbers as Carolina controlled the puck 60% of the time Stastny was on the ice. His offense dried up last season, but Edmonton doesn’t need an offensive juggernaut, they need smart bottom six players that can chip in on offense from time to time.

Projected Contract

Many of the remaining unrestricted free agents are likely going be forced to take contracts that are around the league minimum of $775K, however, I don’t believe that will be the fate for Stastny. As mentioned earlier, he waited until the end of August last year and still secured a seven-figure AAV on a one-year deal. This year is different for Stastny though as he is coming off his lowest offensive output in his 17-year career, so a contract approaching what he made last season might be off the table. I would venture a guess that Stastny will get a one-year deal in the range of $1MM to $1.25MM which could also include a small bonus. Several teams have utilized bonuses for players over 35 years of age signing one-year contracts and Stastny could be the next in line to receive it. Regardless of where he winds up, he will likely be able to give the team that acquires him good value on a short-term deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Examining Maple Leafs Bargain Bin Free Agent Targets

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Joshua Kloke of The Athletic wrote an article today highlighting seven bargain bin free agent targets that could help the Toronto Maple Leafs next season. The Maple Leafs currently sit about $2MM over the salary cap despite putting Jake Muzzin and Matt Murray on LTIR for next year, making it difficult to imagine Toronto doing much shopping in free agency unless they sign two-way deals or move out a contract. The names on the list were interesting, and certainly, they reflect the Maple Leafs’ salary cap predicament.

The most interesting name on Kloke’s list was three-time Stanley Cup champion Jonathan Toews. Much speculation has been made this off-season about the future of Toews as he has battled health issues the past few seasons and may be leaning towards retirement. Toews was effective last year, albeit in limited action as he dressed in just 53 games and put up 15 goals and 16 assists. The former captain of the Chicago Blackhawks doesn’t have much to play for at this point, but if he were to choose the Maple Leafs as a destination, he could slide into a similar role that Jason Spezza and Joe Thornton had when they arrived in Toronto a few years ago. Toews could be a very effective fourth-line center for Toronto even at this point in his career, but one must wonder if wants to.

Zach Aston-Reese was another name on the list and is coming off a season in which he scored a career-high 10 goals with Toronto. By all accounts, Aston-Reese was well-liked in Toronto and was effective for them in a fourth-line role. We profiled the Staten Island, New York native just days ago in our Free Agent Profile series and highlighted that the 28-year-old has some of the best defensive analytics in the league but offers very little offensively.

Another name on the list was a young reclamation project and that is 25-year-old Jesse Puljujarvi. The right-winger is coming off a very disappointing season in which he scored just five goals and was dumped by the Edmonton Oilers in a cap-cutting move last year. Puljujarvi has been a disappointment in his young career after getting drafted fourth overall in 2016. He has just 51 goals and 63 assists in 334 NHL games but is just a year removed from a 36-point season in 2021-22. The Maple Leafs would probably be a good landing spot for Puljujarvi as he could play in more of a sheltered role in Toronto and wouldn’t be relied upon to provide much offence. On the flip side of that, he struggled to play with skilled players like Connor McDavid, which leads to speculation about whether he’d be able to play with any of Toronto’s skilled forwards.

The most realistic target for the Maple Leafs on the list was center Derick Brassard. Brassard entered last season on a professional tryout with the Ottawa Senators and put up decent numbers in limited playing time. The 35-year-old had 13 goals and 10 assists in 62 games while averaging just 12 minutes of ice time per game. It’s possible that Brassard might also elect to retire, but he did express a desire to keep playing at the end of last year. He also enjoyed playing closer to home having grown up in Hull, Quebec, which is just across the river from Ottawa. Should Brassard want to stay close to family, Toronto would make sense. From the Maple Leafs’ perspective, there is no harm in bringing in a veteran like Brassard on a one-year deal for the league minimum. He would give them a scoring option in the bottom six who can fill in at center, and they could bury his contract in the minors without penalty should things not work out.

The other names on Kloke’s list were defensemen Ethan Bear and Scott Harrington, as well as forward Sam Gagner. Harrington is a former Maple Leaf and could offer some depth on the backend, while Bear is expected to miss a significant chunk of the year and would be a mid-season addition. Gagner could offer the Leafs some depth scoring on the fourth line and is close with John Taveres from their days playing in London. Perhaps a return home could be possible for the 33-year-old Gagner.

Free Agent Profile: Caleb Jones

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It’s hard to believe it, but the NHL season starts in just over two months. For some NHLers they will soon be making plans to return to their respective cities to begin the upcoming season, for others like defenseman Caleb Jones, his plan is to try to find an NHL job in the next nine weeks.

It was surprising to see Jones go unqualified, as the Chicago Blackhawks elected to let him become a free agent rather than offer him a qualifying offer. Chicago needed to tender the 26-year-old at $1.35MM, but he was made a free agent when Chicago didn’t make the offer. Now, almost a month into free agency Jones remains unsigned, a somewhat surprising development for a player who has shown promise in his young career.

Jones, the younger brother of Blackhawks defenseman Seth Jones, was originally drafted by the Edmonton Oilers in the fourth round back in 2015 and played 93 games over parts of three seasons with the club before he was traded to Chicago in July 2021 as part of the Duncan Keith trade. Jones then dressed in 124 games over the past two years with the Blackhawks, putting up 9 goals and 22 assists.

Last year was a career year for Jones, as he had four goals and 12 assists in 73 games while playing over 19 minutes a night. Jones was tasked with playing second-pairing minutes on a very bad Chicago team and faired well despite not contributing much offensively. Jones led the defense core in many analytical categories and did a decent job controlling the play when he was on the ice.

Jones has typically demonstrated a good ability to move the puck well, utilizing his skating to push the puck up the ice and can keep himself mobile in the defensive zone to be a disruptive force on both the penalty kill and at even strength. However, he is not his older brother and doesn’t possess nearly the offensive acumen that Seth has displayed throughout his career.

The issue that Jones may face when trying to lock down an NHL job is that there is a bit of a surplus of left-shot depth defensemen in the NHL. Pittsburgh has Ty Smith and Pierre-Olivier Joseph competing for one spot on their third pairing, as do the Calgary Flames, with Oliver Kylington now returning after a one-year absence. The Ottawa Senators have several solid left-shot options throughout their NHL lineup, as do many other teams. For Jones, he could offer a solid third-pairing option, but there are very few teams who need that right now.

Stats

2022-23: 73 GP, 4-14-16, -19 rating, 40 PIMS, 86 shots, 48.9% CF, 19:13 ATOI
Career: 217 GP, 14-36-50, -39 rating, 80 PIMS, 225 shots, 48.1% CF, 16:49 ATOI

Potential Suitors

Jones would have teams lining up for his services if he was a right-shot defenseman, but he shoots left and typically plays the left side. While his market will be small, there are sure to be teams that could find a role for the younger Jones brother.

In the East, the Buffalo Sabres have Ilya Lyubushkin slated to play as a third bottom-pair left-side defenseman, and while he offers a physical element and does a good job suppressing scoring chances, he is not a good puck mover and isn’t particularly adept at much else. Jones could push Lyubushkin and create healthy competition for playing time in the Sabres defense core. The one barrier for Jones to Buffalo could be that the Sabres have already brought in Erik Johnson and Connor Clifton in free agency, and management may feel that they’ve already brought in enough competition on their back end.

In the West, The Anaheim Ducks have brought in a few NHL veterans to try and give guidance to their young stars. While Radko Gudas will bring some leadership and physicality on the back end, the Ducks could use a few more veterans who can teach their young players to become good pros. Jones could be a solid fit for the role as he has already played on a young, bad, rebuilding team and knows the challenges and tribulations that come with the growing pains of a rebuild.

Sticking with the West, another rebuilding club that could use some help on the backend is the San Jose Sharks. The Sharks aren’t pushing to make the playoffs this year, but that doesn’t mean they should stop looking for improvements. At the moment, the Sharks have 30-year-old journeyman Jacob MacDonald penciled in as their third pairing left side defenseman and Marc-Édouard Vlasic on their second pair. Vlasic was a terrific shutdown defender for a long time, but he has seen notable declines in his game for the past five years or so. Jones would likely offer an upgrade on both men while not costing San Jose much in the way of assets.

Projected Contract

Unfortunately for Jones, he is most likely going to be taking a pay cut from the $1.35MM he made last season. There should be a small market for his services as the season nears, but the native of Arlington, Texas, might have to sign a professional try-out to get teams interested in his services. Matt Dumba and Ethan Bear are both still unrestricted and might attract more interest as they are right-shot defensemen and have better track records. Jones should ultimately be able to find an NHL deal, but when he does, it will likely come in around the league minimum or a tick above it. There were many NHL defensemen who found deals late in the summer last year, and it seems that could happen again this summer with Jones.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arbitration Breakdown: Jeremy Swayman

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Today, The Boston Bruins and goaltender Jeremy Swayman filed their arbitration numbers, and according to Sportnet’s Elliotte Friedman, Boston has filed at $2MM for one year, while Swayman has asked for $4.8MM. The 24-year-old netminder and the Bruins have until Sunday to work out a deal before they will go to arbitration.

Swayman’s number is sure to shock some people, but that is typically how this process works. The team files a lowball number, and the player files high. The arbitrator’s decision typically falls somewhere in the middle, as was the case with the Toronto Maple Leafs and netminder Ilya Samsonov.

Swayman is coming off the best season of his career and does have considerable leverage in these negotiations. The Anchorage, Alaska native posted a 24-6-4 record this past year with a .920 save percentage and a 2.27 goals-against average. His save percentage was good enough for fourth in the league trailing only Filip Gustavsson, Ilya Sorokin, and Swayman’s partner Linus Ullmark. Speaking of Ullmark, his presence complicates the situation with Swayman because he is coming off a career year as well, one in which he won the Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goaltender. Ullmark also has two years left on his contract and is unlikely to be moved this late in the summer.

The Bruins do have a bit of cap space to sign Swayman, however, they will want to keep the cap hit as low as possible since they have other pressing needs throughout their lineup from free agency departures and the retirement of Patrice Bergeron. The Bruins have a hair under $5.5MM in cap space and could be presented with some major challenges if the arbitrator rules a salary that is close to Swayman’s filing.

For Swayman, he will be looking to cash in on what has been a terrific career thus far. He just completed the three-year-contract entry-level contract that paid him $925K this past season, and while his filing is on the high side, he will likely triple or quadruple his salary this upcoming season.

A lot of teams will take a player to arbitration in the hopes of laying the groundwork for future salary cap management. However, in this case, Boston is just trying to stay cap compliant and keep as much of their team intact as they can.

Filings

Team: $2MM (one-year)
Player: $4.8MM (one-year)
Midpoint: $3.4MM

(via Friedman)

The Numbers

As mentioned above, 2022-23 saw Swayman have a career year, and while he was phenomenal when he did play, his sample size is still quite small. Swayman has never played in more than 41 games and hasn’t had to carry the workload in Boston since he’s always had the benefit of playing behind a bonafide number-one goaltender. There is a good argument to be made that it isn’t any fault of Swayman’s, and he can only play the games he plays. However, he is asking for starting goaltender money, and up to this point, he hasn’t been a starter. You can look to other teams like the Pittsburgh Penguins, who had star backups in Matt Murray and Tristan Jarry, but both of those netminders struggled with injuries and inconsistency once they were appointed as starters.

For Swayman, this season wasn’t all that far off from last season. His save percentage was slightly better, and he lost fewer games. However, he also played behind a far superior team than he did in previous seasons. That is also something that critics will point to, Swayman plays behind one of the best teams in the league, and again, that isn’t his fault. But it could be a knock the Bruins use in the ugly process that is arbitration.

From Swayman’s perspective, despite being mostly a backup, he can point to the fact that he’s taken over the net in consecutive postseasons from Ullmark. While that isn’t proof of anything, it does give his arbitration case credibility and showcase that the Bruins view the youngster as an NHL starter.

Swayman is also not a one-year wonder and can point to a few seasons of sustained success at the NHL level. Since he made his NHL debut in 2020-21, he has posted an impressive nine shutouts in 82 starts and is second in the NHL in goals-against average with a 2.40, and he also ranks fifth in save percentage with a .920 career save percentage. Some people might point to those numbers and say Swayman is the benefactor or a good team in front of him, and that is fair. However, if you take a deep dive into his numbers, you will find that over the course of his career, he has posted a ridiculous 33.8 goals saved above expected.

It will be interesting to see how the Bruins value Swayman. Do they see him as a long-term starting netminder, or is their view that he is a strong backup? You have to wonder if the Bruins had more cap space this summer if they wouldn’t try and lock him into a long-term deal at a reasonable cap hit. But that isn’t the world Boston is living in, and unfortunately for them, they are up against the cap and up against a player who has been terrific for them for quite some time.

This is a tough case to pin down due to the volatility of the goaltending position. However, given that the Maple Leafs and Samsonov just went through this process, it seems likely that the arbitrator will rule somewhere close to the middle of the two sides’ filings.

2022-23 Stats: 37GP 24W 6L 4T/O .920SV% 2.27GAA 4SO

Career Stats: 88GP 54W 23L 7T/0 .920SV% 2.24GAA 9SO

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of this negotiation. 

Ilya Samsonov (Maple Leafs) – Samsonov was just awarded a one-year deal for $3.55MM and is the obvious comparison for Swayman. However, it may serve as a “low-end” comparable for what his awarded contract could look like. Swayman is two years younger than Samsonov, and although he has a shorter track record, Swayman’s career numbers are vastly superior. However, if you look at just this past season in a vacuum, their numbers are quite similar. They sport an almost identical save percentage with a .01 difference, Swayman’s goals-against was .06 percent better and Samsonov dressed in five more games. A key point is the perception of the two goaltenders at the end of the year is different, despite coming to similar finales. Samsonov is widely viewed as Toronto’s starter heading into next year, while Swayman is firmly viewed as the Bruins’ backup. This perception could be a difference-maker in the eyes of an arbitrator. But, if they look strictly at the numbers, one will think that Swayman could be staring down a higher salary next year.

Tristan Jarry (Pittsburgh Penguins) – This comparison is a bit older, but it still applies to Swayman’s situation, given the flat-cap world we are living in. Jarry signed a three-year, $3.5MM AAV pact with the Penguins after his 2020-21 season, a year where he went 20-12-1 while posting a .921 save percentage and a 2.43 goals-against average while being named to the all-star game. Unlike Swayman, Jarry ended that campaign firmly viewed as the Penguins goaltender of the future after Matt Murray faltered in the playoffs once again. Pittsburgh knew that Jarry was their goaltender of the future and locked him up to a bridge deal. To that point in his career, Jarry had played just 62 games and had gone 34-20-4. Despite the lack of playing time, the then 26-year-old was viewed as a bonafide starter, something that Swayman might have to wait to be labeled.

Projection

Swayman has been terrific thus far in his career, however, his numbers are not strong enough to justify his $4.8MM AAV ask. However, he’s aiming high, and he has an excellent case to top Samsonov’s $3.55MM contract and Jarry’s $3.5AAV from 2020. I would have to guess that Swayman will be awarded something in the $3.55MM – $3.75MM range.

If Swayman can post numbers similar to what he has done thus far in his career, one would have to think that Boston will push to trade Ullmark next season and finally anoint Swayman as their number-one goalie. Swayman has probably earned a bridge deal at this point but given that he plays on a team as good as the Bruins, there is only so much money to go around. He will have to wait to get his security, but for now, he should get a nice pay bump next season.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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