Filip Forsberg

Snapshots: Josi, Faceoffs, White

September 19, 2017 at 2:41 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 3 Comments

The Nashville Predators have named their on-ice leadership group for the 2017-18 season, starting with Roman Josi as the newest team captain. Josi will replace the recently retired Mike Fisher in that role, after wearing an alternate captain’s “A” for the last two years. Josi will be joined by “associate captain” Ryan Ellis and alternates Ryan Johansen, Mattias Ekholm and Filip Forsberg.

Josi will become the leagues second Swiss-born captain following Mark Streit, who wore the “C” for the New York Islanders between 2011-2013. The Predators’ players had a big part in selecting him, but head coach Peter Laviolette had great things to say about his all-star defenseman.

Roman has led by example every day of his life. He is respected by all of his teammates and his peers. His work ethic, communication skills and accountability to his team make him the perfect choice to lead this group moving forward.

Other notes from around the league…

As anyone who watched the first few preseason games will have noticed, the NHL is cracking down on slashes to try to stop incidents like the Marc Methot–Sidney Crosby injury last season. Almost everyone is on board with trying to reduce hand injuries, but it’s not so clear cut on the other rule they’ve chosen to enforce. Faceoff violations drew 10 different penalties on Monday night, and the league says they’ll continue to enforce where a player can put his feet—signified by the in-circle hashes—and where they must start their stick. Neither the slashing rule nor the faceoff rule are actually new, they’re just being cracked down upon to try and quicken pace of play and reduce injuries.
The Vancouver Canucks have announced that Ryan White likely suffered a concussion and is in the league’s protocol, which doesn’t bode well for his chance to earn a contract in camp. White is on a professional tryout, trying to prove that he’s worth an NHL deal after splitting last year between Arizona and Minnesota. An effective fourth-line player, he could have potentially seen a regular shift for the Canucks who are in full rebuild mode.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Nashville Predators

September 10, 2017 at 4:50 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Nashville Predators

Current Cap Hit: $68,913,333 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Kevin Fiala (Two years remaining, $863K)
G Juuse Saros (One year remaining, $693K)

Potential Bonuses

Fiala: $500K
Saros: $183K

Total: $683K

A team that is designed for a Stanley Cup run probably shouldn’t have too many players on entry level contracts and the Predators have just the two. Fiala is the team’s top young potential star as the former 2014 first-rounder found himself getting called up to the Predators and logged 54 games last year, scoring 11 goals. He even managed to cement himself in the starting lineup and played in five playoff games, scoring two goals, but then broke his femur and his playoffs were cut short. Nevertheless, the team is expecting a big year from the young wing and some even have him penciled in on the team’s second line. As for Saros, the 22-year-old goalie had a pretty good showing last year, playing in 21 contests (19 starts) and putting up a 2.35 GAA and a .923 save percentage. He should be able to shoulder the load as the backup and right now looks to be Nashville’s goaltender of the future.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Alexei Emelin ($3MM, UFA)
F Scott Hartnell ($1MM, UFA)
F Cody McLeod ($800K, UFA)
D Yannick Weber ($650K, UFA)
D Matt Irwin ($650K, UFA)
D Anthony Bitetto ($613, UFA)
F Miikka Salomaki ($613K, RFA)

The team, already immersed in quality defenders, picked up another veteran defender in Emelin this offseason in a trade with the Vegas Golden Knights, who picked him from the Montreal Canadiens in the expansion draft. A solid veteran, Emelin, should fill in for the injured Ellis until he returns in December and then provide some veteran depth throughout the rest of the season, which should keep Nashville’s defensive corps as strong as it had always been and he will likely be allowed to move on when his contract expires next year.

Hartnell returns to Nashville after 10 years. Originally drafted in the first round by Nashville in 2000, the 35-year-old forward played six years for the Predators before being traded to Philadelphia. He has scored 314 goals, but only managed 13 in his last year in Columbus. The team hopes his presence will spark the team for another Stanley Cup run. The rest, including Weber, Irwin and McLeod

Two Years Remaining

G Pekka Rinne ($7MM, UFA)
D Ryan Ellis ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Pontus Aberg ($650K, RFA)
F Colton Sissons ($625K, RFA)

Two years from now, Rinne’s who has been with the franchise since 2005, will be 36 years old and while he’s still playing well, he’s also beginning to slow down. Do they have an heir apparent ready to take over in Saros? It’s too early to tell, but unless he’s playing out of his mind still in two years, the team will most likely have to find a replacement in net. However, the team hopes he can keep it together for another couple of years for another chance at a Stanley Cup run.

Ellis went down with a knee injury during the playoffs, but continued to play. However, after offseason knee surgery, the 26-year-old defender will be out until January. Regardless, the defenseman is an outstanding defender and was listed by NHL.com as one of the top 20 defenseman in the league last year. His offensive numbers continue to improve as well as he had career highs with 16 goals and 38 points. Even with the injury, his $2.5MM deal for two more years is a bargain.

Aberg and Sissons are both restricted, so re-signing them shouldn’t be too big of a problem. Both are depth players with potential as Aberg has had little NHL experience, but scored 31 goals last year for the AHL’s Milwaukee Admirals. He then got into 15 games for the Predators, scoring two points, but took off in the playoffs, putting up two goals and five points in 16 games. Sissons had just eight goals in 58 games last year, but then put up 12 points, including six goals in the playoffs, so the 23-year-old could be a player who could have an improved year.

Three Years Remaining

F Craig Smith ($4.25MM, UFA)
D Roman Josi ($4MM, UFA)
F Austin Watson ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Frederick Gaudreau ($667K, UFA)

The 28-year-old Smith has been with Nashville from they day he was drafted in 2009 and he developed into a solid 20-goal scorer. In 2015, after scoring 47 goals in two years, he was rewarded with a five-year, $21.3MM deal. After a 12-goal season last year, his deal looks like one of the team’s worst deals. The team hopes he bounces back and returns to form. Josi, on the other hand has been one of the top defensemen in the league and is a bargain at $4MM per year. At 27 years old, Josi puts up big numbers and while last year’s numbers of 12 goals and 37 assists were below his usual standards, he made up for it with strong defense. Watson still has much to prove, but is likely to hold onto a fourth-line position this year. He only had 17 points in 77 games, but was a scorer with the AHL’s Milwaukee Admirals and at age 25 has time to develop his skills.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D P.K. Subban ($9MM through 2021-22)
F Ryan Johansen ($8MM through 2024-25)
F Filip Forsberg ($6MM through 2021-22)
F Viktor Arvidsson ($4.25MM through 2023-24)
F Nick Bonino ($4.1MM through 2020-21)
D Mattias Ekholm ($3.75 through 2021-22)
F Calle Jarnkrok ($2MM through 2021-22)

Like a high-end general manager David Poile has locked up all his talent long-term with the idea of making long playoff runs the norm in Nashville. While Subban is already half-way through the eight-year, $72MM deal he signed in Montreal in 2014, he is the physical presence the team’s defense needs. He had 10 goals and 40 points, but was always there to shut down the other team’s top offensive player. Johansen just received his eight-year, $64MM deal in July and he did that with 14 goals and 47 assists last year. The team’s number one center added another three goals and 10 assists in the playoffs until he had to undergo emergency thigh surgery.

Forsberg has also been a key scorer for the team as the 23-year-old scored 31 goals last year and 90 goals in the past three seasons. A first-round pick in 2012, he is an integral piece to the team’s top scoring line along with Arvidsson, who is also locked up long-term. The 24-year-old had a breakout season last year, putting up 31 goals and 30 assists. He only had 16 points in 58 games a year ago.

The team went out and stole Bonino away from the Stanley Cup winning Pittsburgh Penguins. The 29-year-old gritty center had 18 goals and 19 assists for the Penguins a year ago, but $4.1MM a year for a 18-goal scorer seems exorbitant, assuming he even can be a second-line center. Ekholm is another quality defender on the team, who will have to pick up the slack with Ellis out, but the defensive defender is a key piece to the team. Jarnkrok’s long-term, short-money deal seems nice for a 25-year-old who has scored 31 goals combined in the last two seasons. If he can take it up one more notch, they will have themselves a steal.

Buyouts

F Viktor Stalberg ($1.17MM in 2017-18 and 2018-19)
F Eric Nystrom ($1MM in 2017-18)
D Barret Jackman ($667K in 2017-18)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Josi
Worst Value: Bonino

Looking Ahead

Poile has done an excellent job of putting together a team that can make a long run at a Stanley Cup. They have the defense and the firepower to do that, as well as the fact that almost everyone is locked up for three years or more. They do have a limited time with Rinne in goal, but besides that the team should prove to be a perennial contender for the next few years.

The Signing Bonus: Rise Of The Buyout-Proof Contract (A Reprise)

August 11, 2017 at 3:26 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

This article was originally published in July of 2016, but seems extremely relevant a year later. Most of the players discussed inside underachieved in their first season, and again we saw signing bonuses handed out like candy this summer. Included at the bottom is an update with new contracts from this offseason.

The life of an NHL agent is tough. As the league continues to tweak (or totally overhaul) their CBA each few seasons, changing contract regulations and offering teams different ways of structuring deals, agents are always trying to find ways to circumvent them and get the best offers for their clients.

With teams becoming more and more willing to use buyouts to rid themselves of the horrible contracts that they sign on July 1st – famously a day of simultaneous excitement and regret – agents around the league needed to find a way to protect their clients from losing out on a third (or sometimes two-thirds) of the salary the sides agreed on.

The most recent buyout window, which lasted from June 15th to 30th, saw a dozen NHL players bought out, including household names like Thomas Vanek and Dennis Seidenberg. While some fans may see this as an opportunity for a player to earn two contracts at the same time – Vanek was signed on by Detroit for $2.6MM on July 1st, more than the $1.5MM he surrendered in his buyout – most take it as a personal slight, an indictment of their play or character. Regardless, agents continue to try and secure guarantees for their clients, instead of leaving the power in the hands of the league’s general managers.

Enter the signing bonus, this summer’s contract-du-jour. All across the league, big name free agents have inked deals that will see them paid almost entirely in signing bonuses, with very little actual salary being given out each season. Take Loui Eriksson for instance:

2016-17 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $7MM
2017-18 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $7MM
2018-19 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $6MM
2019-20 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $4MM
2020-21 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $3MM
2021-22 – Salary: $3MM, Bonus: $1MM

While Eriksson’s cap-hit sits at $6MM per year, he’ll make more than that in bonuses alone each of the next three seasons. There are a couple of reasons why this would benefit the player.

For one, everyone loves getting a big check rather than a weekly salary – who would turn down a piece of paper with six zeros? As any economist will tell you, money in hand is worth more than money promised to come, and just as teams in other sports are deferring payments for this reason long into the future, having money up front is actually more valuable for the player in question.

It’s in the buyout rules that the contract really holds value though, as – hinted at by the title – these contracts are basically buyout-proof. Under the current CBA, buyouts are calculated by taking two-thirds of the remaining salary owed, not including signing bonuses, and spreading it out over twice the remaining contract length. The new cap hit is determined by subtracting the savings from the average annual value of the deal which includes signing bonuses.

This means that if the Canucks were to want to buy out Eriksson after say, the third year of his new deal, they’ll only be saving $333K of cap hit in 2020-21, an insignificant portion of the $6MM number. That last season of $3MM is a bit better for the Canucks (they would save $2MM of his cap hit), but structuring it this way almost guarantees that Eriksson will collect at least $35MM of his deal – more than 97%. It’s just not worth it to buy him out any sooner than his final year.

Andrew Ladd, Milan Lucic, Kyle Okposo all signed deals heavily impacted by signing bonuses, protecting them against a buyout through all but the very end of their agreements. Even Matt Martin, a career fourth liner secured a $10MM deal that is 65% bonus. He’ll only be collecting $750K in salary in years three and four of the deal.

While this doesn’t necessarily mean trouble for clubs around the league, you can bet the owners and NHLPA will take a look at it when negotiations begin on the new CBA. The current agreement expires in 2022, though the two sides have the option to end it a year earlier.

Just as the league has used cap recapture and contract limits to close loopholes in the past, be sure that if they want to continue to have the option to buyout bad contracts they’ll remove this option from the equation. Creating a rule that would make signing bonuses only be able to hit a certain percentage of each season’s salary would be the easy fix, but expect push-back from the NHLPA.

Even if they do end up closing it, agents will work on another way to get their clients the best possible guarantee; they always seem to be one step ahead of the league.

This summer, signing bonuses have taken off even further. Carey Price’s eight-year extension with the Montreal Canadiens is over 80% signing bonuses, with the goaltender making a maximum of $2MM in salary per year. A $10.5MM cap hit through age-38 will be impossible to buy out, offering almost no cap savings. The Blackhawks face a similar situation with Brent Seabrook, whose 2015 contract is looking worse and worse, and provides little incentive for a buyout.

Interestingly, the Nashville Predators have continued in their practice of avoiding signing bonuses altogether. After signing Filip Forsberg to a bonus-free deal last summer, both Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson have taken similar structures in their long-term extensions this year. GM David Poile has taken much of the risk off the table even as he allocated many of his resources to his trio of young forwards. Though they pose little risk of age-decline, all three carry large enough cap hits to really hurt the Predators if they were to take a step backwards in their development. It’s hard to see any deserving a buyout, but the option is still there.

Alexander Radulov may be the biggest example among 2017 unrestricted free agents, as his contract with the Dallas Stars is both front-loaded and filled with signing bonuses. Radulov will earn just $13.25MM in salary over the next five seasons, making it difficult to buy out even as he enters his mid-thirties. For a player who has a relatively short track record of success in the NHL, it may quickly turn into a problem if he starts to feel the draw of father time.

Nashville Predators Next Goal Is Locking Up Johansen

July 23, 2017 at 11:55 am CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

The Nashville Predators got a major roadblock out of the way yesterday when they signed 24-year-old wing Viktor Arvidsson to a seven-year deal. The $29.75MM signing locks up another franchise cornerstone at a reasonable price. General manager David Poile has successfully worked out similar deals in the past that have locked up others like Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis. In fact those five cornerstones on a Stanley Cup finalist team, will only cost them a $20.5MM cap hit combined next season, tweets LNH.com’s Arpon Basu.

However, the work doesn’t end there, according to NBC Sports Cam Tucker, who says the team now must turn their attention to No. 1 center Ryan Johansen. The 24-year-old center had a big year for Nashville, putting up 14 goals and 61 points. If it hadn’t been for a thigh injury in the playoffs, he could have shown his value to the team even more, although he still played in 14 playoff games, putting up 13 points. Despite that injury, Johansen should get quite a raise from a year ago.

Johansen, who was acquired from the Columbus Blue Jackets in early 2016 for Seth Jones, signed a three-year bridge deal at $4MM per season while with Columbus. Now, he should be up for an even bigger deal. The Predators should have more than $14.5MM to spend (according to CapFriendly), so money shouldn’t be an issue for Poile.

Early Expansion Protection News: Capitals, Kings, Flames, Predators, And More

June 17, 2017 at 7:58 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 4 Comments

The 2017 NHL Expansion Draft is an exciting process. If you’re too riled up to wait until the lists are officially submitted in the morning, you’re in luck. As could be expected, information leaks are flooding in on who was and wasn’t protected by their teams ahead of the deadline this afternoon. This list will be updated all night long as more news comes in:

Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post was the first reputable source to release her team’s protection list, as she confirmed the Washington Capitals’ names not long after the 5:00 PM ET deadline. The lists includes the expected names: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky, Marcus Johansson, Lars Eller, Tom Wilson, Matt Niskanen, John Carlson, Dmitry Orlov, and Braden Holtby. While not surprising, the list does not include long-time Jay Beagle, promising young players Nate Schmidt and Brett Connolly, and a oft-rumored target of the Golden Knights, backup goaltender Philipp Grubauer.

L.A.-based hockey writer John Hoven got the list of protected players for the Los Angeles Kings, which confirms that they will indeed protect eight-skaters, including four defenseman, rather than the 7/3 protection scheme. Among the safe are Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli, Tanner Pearson, Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin, Alec Martinez, and the key decision, Derek Forbort. Star goalie Jonathan Quick was also obviously protected. While the Kings succeeded in protecting the most valuable players on the roster, they still have left defenseman Brayden McNabb and a large assortment of forwards including Trevor Lewis, Nic Dowd, and Nick Shore open to selection.

Sportsnet’s Eric Francis, who covers the Calgary Flames, has some key names for his team as well. Francis confirmed that the Flames did not protect 2016 free agent acquisition Troy Brouwer, but did opt to save younger assets like Sam Bennett, Micheal Ferland, and Curtis Lazar. Although Francis stops there, the rest of Calgary’s list is somewhat self explanatory with newly-acquired goalie Mike Smith, defensive core of Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie, and Dougie Hamilton, and cornerstone forwards Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Michael Frolik, and Mikael Backlund as obvious choices.

One not so obvious choice has been made in Nashville. Adam Vingan of The Tennessean answered a question on the minds of many, reporting that the Predators did in fact protect forward Calle Jarnkrok. With the rest of the eight-skater list all but set in stone with goalie Pekka Rinne, defensemen Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis, and Mattias Ekholm, and star forwards Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen, and Viktor Arvidsson, the final forward spot came down to Jarnkrok, signed long-term, or James Neal, an elite scorer with just one year remaining on his contract. It seems that Neal will be open for selection, alongside names like Colton Sissons, Colin Wilson, and Craig Smith. Vignan adds that no deal has been struck between Vegas and the Predators to protect any of those players, with Nashville especially liking to retain Neal and Sissons.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported that, interestingly enough, young Detroit Red Wings defenseman Xavier Ouellet was not protected by his team. This is the first real surprise of the expansion process and the first protection news that doesn’t match up with PHR’s Expansion Primer projections. The 23-year-old skated in 66 games this season for Detroit, third most among defenseman, and his 12 points tied that of top-pair man Danny DeKeyser. Yet, Ouellett will not join DeKeyser and Mike Green in protection, instead beaten out by another teammate. GM Ken Holland, who has gotten the reputation of perhaps being too loyal, possibly chose aging veteran Niklas Kronwall over Ouellet. Hopefully that doesn’t come back to bite the rebuilding Red Wings.

Another name confirmed to be unprotected is young Vancouver Canucks center Brendan Gaunce. Vancouver sports anchor Rick Dhaliwal was told that that Gaunce, a 2012 first-round pick, did not make the protection list for the Canucks, expected to be a 7/3 format, meaning that the team saw him as outside the top seven forwards on the team. The 23-year-old two-way specialist has upside, but after registering just five points in 57 games last season, no one will blame Vancouver for that choice.

David Pastrnak & Leon Draisaitl: The Next Contract

March 26, 2017 at 11:30 am CDT | by Zach Leach 3 Comments

The 2016 restricted free agent market was one of the most talented – and most entertaining – in recent memory. As hockey moves more and more toward youthful skill and speed, the dynamics of team building have changed as well, as last summer marked the “death of the bridge deal“. A multitude of massive extensions for young players were handed out, including giant new deals for forwards like Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon, Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele, Calgary duo Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau, and Florida pair Jonathan Huberdeau and Vincent Trocheck. The 2017 RFA group is no slouch either; it features star scorers such as Minnesota’s Mikael Granlund, Vancouver’s Bo Horvat, Nashville’s Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson, the Tampa Bay trio of Jonathan Drouin, Tyler Johnson, and Ondrej Palat and more.

Yet, the two most intriguing restricted free agents are the youngest of the group: 20-year-old Boston Bruins right winger David Pastrnak and 21-year-old Edmonton Oilers center Leon Draisaitl. Last summer opened the door for the game-changing pair to skip right over an affordable short-term deal that would keep them restricted into a third contract for the “prime” of their career. Now, Pastrnak and Draisaitl have the newly-minted industry standard option of asking for a six- to eight-year deal, lasting well into their late 20’s, worth somewhere in the range of $5-7MM annually. So what exactly will the new contracts look like this summer?

Pastrnak’s agent, J.P. Barry, is on the record as saying that his client is looking for a long-term deal and they are viewing the contracts of Monahan, Scheifele, and Filip Forsberg as comparisons. Forsberg signed a six-year, $36MM extension last June, worth $6MM annually, while Monahan re-signed for $6.375 per year for seven seasons and Sheifele agreed to $6.125MM a year for the maximum eight seasons. The only problem for Pastrnak and his representation in making those comparisons is the consistency argument. Pastrnak has an impressive 64 points through 68 games so far this season, much like Monahan’s 63 point total last year. However, Monahan also put up 62 points the year before and 34 as a rookie. He was only slightly older than Pastrnak when he agreed to an extension, but had far greater production in his first two seasons when compared to Pastrnak’s back-to-back mid-20’s performances. Scheifele also had a similar season to Pastrnak’s last year with 61 points in 71 games, but he too outperformed the young Czech the prior two seasons – and was two years older – when inking his eight-year mega deal. Like Monahan, Forsberg had consecutive 60+-point seasons before earning his new deal.

The Monahan, Scheifele, and Forsberg comparison works far better for Draisaitl. Now in his third NHL season, but still just 21, Draisaitl leads all impending RFA’s with 70 points on the year, following up his breakout 51-point campaign in 2015-16. With back-to-back strong seasons, like the previously described trio, Draisaitl should be comfortably within the $6-6.5MM annual range for his upcoming contract. The Oilers will have to keep in mind the possible record-setting deal awaiting them in Connor McDavid next year, but will not hesitate to pay Draisaitl, who is already one the best #2 centers in the NHL. While a very different player, Draisaitl’s early career arc closely resembles that of Gaudreau, and “Johnny Hockey” signed on for six more years in Calgary at $6.75 per, so don’t be surprised if Draisaitl actually ends up exceeding the $6-6.5MM annual range in his new deal or agrees to seven or eight years as compensation for a lower yearly value.

So what of Pastrnak? No one doubts that he will continue producing at a high level, especially with Boston’s top offensive stars like Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, and David Backes signed long-term and in influx of promising talent on it’s way. However, with just one – albeit unbelievable – high-scoring season under his belt, Pastrnak may not be able to crack that $6MM per year mark. Some may point to MacKinnon, the youngest and arguably most talented RFA to re-sign last year, and say that Pastrnak should get the same seven-year contract worth $6.3MM annually. However, MacKinnon was a #1 overall pick and had established himself as a top-line center with a 63-point rookie season in 2013-14, far ahead of where Pastrnak was at that point, which cancels out some of his more recent struggles. Instead, a better comparison is likely Panthers scorers Trocheck and Huberdeau. Like Pastrnak, Trocheck and Huberdeau found only middling success in their first two NHL seasons. Trocheck had a big breakout last year, jumping to 53 points in 76 games, and was rewarded with a six-year deal worth $4.75MM per year. Huberdeau had his breakout in 2014-15 with 54 points and then backed it up 59 points last season, before inking a six-year extension worth $5.9MM annually. What Pastrnak has done this year clearly surpasses anything that the Florida duo have yet to put up and Trocheck and Huberdeau were also two years older than Pastrnak will be when they re-signed, but they set up a more accurate range for what the Bruins wunderkind should expect this summer. Taking likely cap inflation into consideration, Pastrnak is looking at a six-year extension worth $5-6MM per season. Given the Bruins recent issues with retaining young talent, it’s a fair assumption that they won’t play hardball with the young sniper, so expecting the upper side of that scale is perfectly reasonable.

Will The 2017 Draft Class Be Better Than People Think?

March 4, 2017 at 8:13 pm CDT | by natebrown 8 Comments

FanRag Sports’ Hannah Stuart pens an article wondering if the 2017 NHL Draft class is actually not as bad as many think it will be. Coming off two drafts with all-world talents–Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel in 2015 and Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine in 2016–anything less of that type of talent would be considered “worse” by definition. Clouding judgement has been the lack of what many analysts believe to be at least one generational player, and a muddled class after the first seven-eight players in most mock drafts. But is it a fair assessment?

Stuart cites ESPN’s Corey Pronman, who put together his ranking of the prospects and even wrote in his opening paragraph that its one of the weakest drafts in the cap era. He goes as far as to say it’s in the same category of the 2011 and 2012 drafts, which in his opinion, didn’t yield much in the way of top tier talent. Pronman lists Halifax’s Nico Hischier as his top prospect, with Brandon Wheat Kings center Nolan Patrick second and Mississauga’s Owen Tippett third. Pronman does write that it’s essentially a toss-up as to who can be the #1 overall pick in the draft–Hischier or Patrick, and that whoever is taken first will be a benefit to his new team.

Looking at the two drafts that Pronman mentioned, the 2011 did feature a slew of players chosen in the top 10 who have been productive in the NHL. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins went first overall, and while he hasn’t produced in the way that Matthews or McDavid have, many analysts (and fans) blame his development by the Oilers as a culprit for his stunted growth. Other notables in the 2011 draft–by draft order–are Gabriel Landeskog (#2), Jonathan Huberdeau (#3), Adam Larsson (#4), Ryan Strome (#5), Mika Zibanejad (#6), Mark Scheifele (#7) Sean Couturier (#8), Dougie Hamilton (#9), and Jonas Brodin (#10). There are a number of strong players in the ten, and while viewed as a “weaker” draft, it at least paid dividends for those teams that drafted them–or acquired them later via trade.

It thins out from there, but there were certainly notables later in the first round or later in the draft. Brandon Saad was taken in the second round by the Blackhawks and he was clutch for Chicago until they were forced to deal him away due to cap issues.

2012’s draft was somewhat weaker one-through-ten, but saw some return in the middle of the first round, namely with Filip Forsberg being taken 11th by the Capitals. Nail Yakupov was taken first by the Oilers, and he certainly hasn’t been the players the Oilers envisioned–but again, that may go back to development questions. Hampus Lindholm (#6) and Jacob Trouba (#9) are the headliners of a defensive heavy top ten. But a look through the rounds and it’s pretty telling that the 2012 edition was not only weaker than 2011, but possibly one of the weakest in the salary cap era.

Stuart makes an extremely important point about drafting: it’s a crapshoot.

A player can make a bad first impression or be a weak skater and be completely written off by certain scouts. However, maybe that player has an excellent hockey IQ, and a team recognizes that and drafts them in a later round. If the team works with them to fix the deficiencies in their skating, there’s every chance they could develop into an effective NHLer. On the other hand, let’s take what we’ll call the Oilers model. A team might consistently draft high, taking players who show elite skill and throwing those players into the NHL before they’re ready rather than taking time to develop weaknesses in their game.

Stuart continues to argue that since the drumbeat has been steady in saying this draft class will be weak, it’s been all but believed by those on the internet. But as she points out, it isn’t so much the drafting as much as it is the development and scouting staff that every team employs.

Tuesday Evening Snapshots: Vanek, Ott, Trotz, Forsberg

February 28, 2017 at 9:47 pm CDT | by natebrown Leave a Comment

Prior to the Red Wings game against Vancouver, several reporters tweeted that Steve Ott was scratched while potential trade target Thomas Vanek was scheduled to be on the ice–meaning that Vanek is still a Red Wing for at least another night. Vanek, who many thought would be scratched to avoid injury prior to the deadline, will play limited minutes according to a tweet from the Red Wings’ Dana Wakiji. Ott, meanwhile, has been another name linked to trade discussions, and his absence, after being in the lineup over the past several games, certainly raises eyebrows. Ott is beloved by teammates and coaches for his “grit” and “locker room presence,” so it remains to be seen if Ott is shipped off to another team.

In other snapshots:

Washington bench boss Barry Trotz notched his 700th career win after the Capitals knocked off the Rangers 4-1. He was denied the other night by his former team, the Nashville Predators, and sits at #6 on the all-time-wins list for coaches. He’s behind only two active head coaches: Joel Quenneville, and Lindy Ruff.
Filip Forsberg continues his tear, and NBC Sports’ James O’Brien writes that Preds defenseman P.K. Subban believes Forsberg is the best player in the league right now. Forsberg has four three-point games in his last six contests for a cumulative total of 14 points (10-4). The Tennessean’s Adan Vignan writes that Forsberg finished February with 11 goals and 17 assists in just 13 games. It’s the type of stride the Preds need, still sitting third in the Central but certainly not having a desirable cushion.

Nashville Notes: Subban, Poile, Mazanec

November 15, 2016 at 9:20 am CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

After a quiet start to the season, Predators defenseman P.K. Subban is starting to become more comfortable as he adapts to Nashville’s system, writes Adam Vingan of The Tennessean. Subban attributes his slow start to having to think more than simply react to the play as it happens:

“When you’re not thinking, you’re just playing. I think that from the start of the season I was doing a lot of thinking, just trying to learn systems and build chemistry with my teammates. Every game that goes by, we build more and more chemistry. Every practice that we have, we learn more about each other. It feels as if it’s starting to turn.”

Subban acknowledged that he’s still getting used to playing a different role with Nashville than he had with Montreal:

“The way the team has been built, there’s a lot of skilled guys here. The styles are different. In terms of in Montreal, it was like I had to defend, but I was expected to drive offense. If I wasn’t scoring goals, it’s like, ’Why aren’t you scoring?’ Here, it’s a little different. It’s about producing offense. … It’s not about who scores the goal, but it’s about generating offense and influencing it.”

While Subban’s numbers aren’t quite where they’re used to being at this stage of the year (he has eight points in 14 games, good for a 46 point pace which would be his lowest since the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign), the team is enjoying a significant advantage in scoring chances, something the Preds pay very close attention to, while he’s on the ice by a count of 44-25.

Other news from Nashville:

In an article from the Canadian Press, GM David Poile attributed Nashville’s early season struggles to a pair of factors, a newly-developing leadership group with the departures of Shea Weber and Paul Gaustad among others, as well as the struggles from several key forwards. Poile acknowledges that progress is being made on the leadership side as players adjust to new roles but that the latter is still a concern for the team: “For sure, to me we’ve been inconsistent and on an individual basis I think there’s individuals that can produce more than they’ve produced to this point”. Among those who aren’t producing as expected is Filip Forsberg who has just one goal so far and is in the first season of his new contract that pays him an average of $6MM per season.
The team has recalled goaltender Marek Mazanec from Milwaukee of the AHL, notes Brooks Bratten from the team’s official site. The 25 year old got into a pair of games with the Admirals, going 1-1 with a 3.90 GAA and a .849 SV%. Nashville has not yet sent down Juuse Saros, suggesting they may be keeping three goalies up with the team for a little while.

World Cup Notes: Forsberg, Datsyuk, Marchand

September 24, 2016 at 1:00 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

When the Washington Capitals traded away Filip Forsberg for Martin Erat in an attempt at the Stanley Cup a few years ago, they gave away one of the games most dynamic young players – one that has developed into a legitimate goal-scoring threat from anywhere on the ice. They also lost their chance at having Forsberg potentially skate alongside Nicklas Backstrom and Alexander Ovechkin. It would likely have been an unstoppable offensive trio, and Backstrom said as much today when speaking with Dan Rosen of NHL.com:

He reminds me of playing with Alex with his quick release. He loves shooting the puck. He loves to go to the net. He loves creating stuff. In that way he reminds me of Ovi.

Forsberg, who has already scored 60 goals in his brief NHL career, has a long way to go to catch one of the all-time great goal scoring wingers but even without 50-per-season he’ll be an elite player. Swedish defenders like Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Roman Josi and Mattias Ekholm, all excellent players in their own right, agree that Forsberg is one player you can’t give much space. Had he stayed in Washington, playing with Backstrom and Ovechkin would have afforded him that room.

Pavel Datsyuk took the ice at team Russia’s morning skate prior to their evening matchup against Canada, but will still be a game-time decision. He didn’t take part in the entire practice, instead doing some skating at center ice by himself. He sat out the Russian’s final round-robin game against Finland with a “lower-body injury”, and hasn’t been the same dynamic force he used to be.
Always known for a good soundbite, Drew Doughty told reporters “that’s a bonus, that’s for sure” in regards to missing the first part of Kings camp due to the World Cup. While the players remaining won’t get to practice with their squads for at least a few more days, the work they’ve put in with and against the best players in the world should be more than enough to get them ready for the season. The only worry is injuries, like the one suffered by Matt Murray which will now keep him out 3-6 weeks.
In his latest column, AP’s Stephen Whyno speculates that Brad Marchand may be a top target for the Pittsburgh Penguins if he reaches free agency next summer, due to the growing chemistry between the Boston winger and his Team Canada center Sidney Crosby. The two have scored seven points in three games and look like they are a natural fit together on the ice. Fitting Marchand into their salary structure may prove difficult however, if Marchand can duplicate his outstanding 37-goal campaign from a year ago.

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