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Expansion Primer

Expansion Primer: Edmonton Oilers

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

After a decade out of the playoffs, the Edmonton Oilers rebounded in a big way with over 100 points and making it to Game 7 of the second round. Connor McDavid lead the NHL in scoring, while Cam Talbot lead all goaltenders with 73 games played. Leon Draisaitl finished top-ten in scoring and cemented his place as the best Oilers forward in the non-McDavid category.

The Oilers made one of the biggest moves of the off-season, trading superstar forward Taylor Hall to New Jersey for Adam Larsson, who played a big role in solidifying the team’s defence. Late off-season free agent signing Kris Russell played top-four minutes. Mid-season, GM Peter Chiarelli traded Brandon Davidson to Montreal for diminutive center David Desharnais.

Their success this season proved to management that their Stanley Cup window is one or two moves away from being a legitimate contender. With one season until McDavid’s upcoming big contract enters the picture, Chiarelli has some freedom to go for it. The expansion draft may create an opportunity to acquire a big name. Here’s a closer look at their situation:

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Leon Draisaitl, Jordan Eberle, Zack Kassian, Jujhar Khaira, Mark Letestu, Milan Lucic (NMC), Patrick Maroon, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Iiro Pakarinen, Zach Pochiro, Benoit Pouliot, Henrik Samuelsson

Defense:

Mark Fayne, Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, David Musil, Griffin Reinhart, Andrej Sekera (NMC), Dillon Simpson

Goalies:

Laurent Brossoit, Cam Talbot (NMC)

Notable Exemptions

F Connor McDavid, F Jesse Puljujärvi, F Drake Caggiula, F Anton Slepyshev, D Matt Benning, D Darnell Nurse

Key Decisions

The Oilers only have one decision to make ahead of expansion. It helps tremendously that their superstar captain, three highly-touted forward prospects, and two future top-four defensemen are all exempt. The Oilers will go the 7-3-1 route.

Heading into the trade deadline, it appeared that the Oilers would lose the emerging Davidson to Vegas. The Oilers have Oscar Klefbom, Larsson, and Andrej Sekera for the three defensemen protection slots. With that in mind, Chiarelli traded Davidson to Montreal for Desharnais. The trade didn’t necessarily work out for the Oilers, with Desharnais not being able to solidify the Oilers’ third line and injuries piling up on Edmonton’s blue line at the end of their series against Anaheim.

Trading Davidson also means that the Oilers are going to lose someone else. Mark Letestu

The major choice the Oilers have to make is between Jujhar Khaira and Mark Letestu. The veteran Letestu has one year remaining at $1.8MM. He had 35 points, including 11 power-play goals, after overtaking Jordan Eberle as the right-shot option on the Oilers’ number one power-play unit. However, he’s also a 32-year-old fourth line center coming off high highest point-total in four seasons and a UFA next summer. In 2015-16, Letestu struggled when thrust onto the Oilers’ third line. The Golden Knights are not likely to have sufficient center depth to cover for Letestu at 5-on-5, so they’re liable to look elsewhere.

They may look no further than Khaira, who is just beginning his NHL career. He scored one goal in 10 NHL games last season before suffering an injury. He also had 20 points in 27 AHL games, showing offensive potential enough to one day develop into a third line checking center. Khaira is the kind of young talent that Vegas could look for instead of a 30-something bottom-six forward like Letestu.

Other possible selections include Laurent Brossoit, Griffin Reinhart, and Benoit Pouliot. All five of the above mentioned Oilers are waiver-eligible, meaning there’s no added benefit to taking one of the younger players. It shouldn’t have to be mentioned, but there’s no way the Oilers expose Eberle. Despite his down year, Eberle was still a top-60 scoring winger in the NHL and that is far too valuable to flush for one season of a down shooting percentage.

While the market is flush with goaltenders, Brossoit could be an interesting option as the Golden Knights’ backup for their inaugural season. GM George McPhee could select several options for the starting job and then trade them to teams needing help in the blue paint and use Brossoit as the backup. The young goaltender has played very well at every level, from leading the Edmonton Oil Kings to a Memorial Cup-berth, to successful years starting in the ECHL and AHL, and a good run as the Oilers’ backup during the second half of last season.

Griffin ReinhartMcPhee is willing to take on bad contracts, if the price is right. Pouliot could be one of those redemption options. After several years as a middle-six forward with good analytics, aggressive play, and solid penalty killing, Pouliot fell off the map in 2016-17. He had just 14 points in 67 games and zero points in the playoffs. At $4MM, he’s too expensive to spend two more seasons in Edmonton as McDavid and Draisaitl move on from their entry-level deals. But on an expansion team, he could return to a top-nine role and return to the mid-30 point range that he’s hit so consistently before.

The likeliest selection is Reinhart. The 2012 4th-overall pick has developed slower than expected, but by several accounts was the best defenseman on the Oilers’ AHL team last season. While he’ll never live up to the expectations that come with his draft position (one slot ahead of Morgan Rielly and two ahead of Hampus Lindholm), Reinhart can still become a dependable fifth defenseman who excels on the penalty kill. That has value, and his draft pedigree suggests there’s a player there.

With all that in mind, the Oilers would be better-served offering up Letestu instead of Khaira. Of course, Chiarelli may decide to hold on to the player who has proven he can score 30-plus points and play well on special teams, instead of a player who may be that in the future.

Projected Protection List

F Leon Draisaitl
F Jordan Eberle
F Zack Kassian
F Jujhar Khaira
F Milan Lucic (NMC)
F Patrick Maroon
F Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

D Oscar Klefbom
D Adam Larsson
D Andrej Sekera (NMC)

G Cam Talbot (NMC)

Out of the unprotected players, Reinhart has the best pedigree and is young enough to still develop into a legitimate top-six defenseman. Khaira and Brossoit also have NHL-potential, and should be options for Vegas. Chiarelli and McPhee could also work out a trade where Vegas take an expensive player like Pouliot or Mark Fayne in exchange for a prospect or pick, but that’s far from guaranteed. As a future division rival, McPhee may not be inclined to help out Edmonton for less than a high pick or top prospect. Between Pouliot, Iiro Pakarinen, Fayne, and Brossoit, the Oilers meet the exposure requirements. At his year-end availability, Chiarelli told reporters that the Oilers were going to lose someone that they would rather keep. However, the Oilers situation is far better than most teams; the most likely options are their backup goaltender, fourth line center, or an AHL defenseman.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Expansion Primer: Winnipeg Jets

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, Bryan Little, Mathieu Perreault, Shawn Matthias, Adam Lowry, Joel Armia, Ivan Telegin, Quinton Howden, Marko Dano, Scott Kosmachuk, Andrew Copp, Ryan Olsen, J.C. Lipon

Defensemen:

Dustin Byfuglien (NMC), Toby Enstrom (NMC), Tyler Myers, Jacob Trouba, Mark Stuart, Julian Melchiori, Ben Chiarot

Goaltenders:

Michael Hutchinson, Connor Hellebuyck

Notable Exemptions

Patrik Laine, Nikolaj Ehlers, Kyle Connor, Jack Roslovic, Tucker Poolman, Logan Stanley, Josh Morrissey, Michael Spacek, Jansen Harkins

Key Decisions

Adam LowryThe biggest factor in the Jets expansion protection is something we’ve written about before; whether or not Enstrom will waive his no-movement clause. If he does, it gives the team several options while if he doesn’t, the Jets will be almost forced to protect eight skaters instead of the 7-3-1 method.

Up front Scheifele, Wheeler and Little are locks as the core of the forward group, but after that it gets a little tricky. Perreault, Lowry, Armia, Dano and Copp all have their own strengths and weaknesses, and could deserve protection depending on how the team decides on their future. Perreault had another solid season with 45 points in 65 games but has had trouble staying healthy and is on the books until he’s 33.

The other four are all 24 or under and have shown flashes of big potential. Armia and Dano are former first-round picks, while Lowry and Copp are both capable young centers, something Vegas will be hard-pressed to find in the draft. Even if the team protects seven forwards, there will be an interesting option or two available up front. Toby Enstrom

Defense is where the problems originate, since Enstrom’s NMC puts several players at risk. Even if Myers’ health issues are starting to wear on Winnipeg fans, watching him walk out the door for nothing after trading Evander Kane and Zach Bogosian to acquire him (and the rest of the package) would be painful. Trouba obviously deserves protection, leaving Melchiori and Chiarot as outside options for the Golden Knights.

In net Hellebuyck is clearly the future in Winnipeg, even if he is supplanted in the short-term by a free agent acquisition. Hutchinson has shown he has some ability as an NHL backup, but would be way down the menu for Vegas and unlikely to be selected anyway.

The Golden Knights will get a window in which to negotiate with free agents, and for the Jets that doesn’t seem to be an issue. Other than possibly bringing Pavelec on board, there aren’t any UFAs that are worth forfeiting what should be a good selection from Winnipeg.

Projected Protection List

F Mark Scheifele
F Blake Wheeler
F Bryan Little
F Adam Lowry

D Dustin Byfuglien (NMC)
D Toby Enstrom (NMC)
D Tyler Myers
D Jacob Trouba

G Connor Hellebuyck

If the Jets can’t get Enstrom to waive it, the protection list should look something like this. It would make their group one of the most talented options Vegas has in the draft, and a tough but rewarding selection for them. Because of that, watch closely for the team to figure out a deal with the Golden Knights to pick a certain player.

Of note, Ivan Telegin appears on the eligible list despite him never playing an NHL game and only 34 AHL contests. He’s played in the KHL for the past three seasons, but since those were after he had already signed an Standard Player Contract (SPC) in the NHL—his entry-level deal in 2011—he’s considered to have several years of professional service and is therefore eligible.

The Jets are in one of the worst situations in the league at the moment for the draft, though it is mostly because of the solid depth they’ve built at every position. For a team vying for the playoffs next season, losing one of the above listed players wouldn’t be crippling especially as they have youngsters like Roslovic and Poolman set to fight for spots.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Expansion Primer: Pittsburgh Penguins

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

With the Penguins up two games to zero in the Stanley Cup Finals, the team’s success under the guidance of GM Jim Rutherford cannot be understated. Potential back-to-back championships following a long list of playoff disappointments and identity crises would all but erase the sting of many poor management decisions under former GM Ray Shero.

After the acquisition of Phil Kessel, the team has not looked back in the slightest offensively. They sat out and relished their summer last off-season with minimal movement, but this year Rutherford has decisions to make. Although the makeup of the team will surely be different come October, there are many options to be considered.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Sidney Crosby (NMC), Evgeni Malkin (NMC), Phil Kessel (NMC), Patric Hornqvist, Carl Hagelin, Bryan Rust, Tom Kuhnhackl, Scott Wilson, Josh Archibald (RFA), Oskar Sundqvist (RFA), Jean-Sebastien Dea (RFA)

Defense:

Kris Letang (NMC), Olli Maatta, Ian Cole, Brian Dumoulin (RFA), Derrick Pouliot (RFA), Justin Schultz (RFA), Frank Corrado (RFA), Tim Erixon (RFA), Stuart Percy (RFA)

Goalies:

Marc-Andre Fleury (NMC), Matt Murray

Jake Guentzel, Conor Sheary, Daniel Sprong, Carter Rowney, Tristan Jarry, Zach Aston-Reese, Thomas DiPauli, Teddy Blueger, Dominik Simon,  Jeff Taylor, Ethan Prow, Lukas Bengtsson, Sean Maguire

Key Decisions

To get the elephant in the room cleared aside, it seems a foregone conclusion that Marc-Andre Fleury will waive his No Movement Clause in order for the franchise to protect Matt Murray. This arrangement would suit him, as he performs far better statistically in a starting role, and it allows him to be “the guy” in a new city. If for some unforeseen reason Fleury opts against waiving his NMC, Rutherford will assuredly find a trade elsewhere prior to the expansion draft. At the end of the day, Murray, with two amazing playoff performances at only 23 years-old, is going nowhere.

The other four players who must be protected are those which will not give management any sleepless nights. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are both future hall of famers playing prime hockey, providing great value for their contracts. Kessel, at his reduced rate, has absolutely exceeded expectations when his contract was shipped from Toronto. Kris Letang is the only player who some fans have balked out, as he has missed substantial chunks of time, consistently hitting LTIR and wasting cap dollars. Letang, however, is easily a top-10 defenseman in the league,. Watching how these playoffs have been far less decisive than last for Pittsburgh, there is no doubt the entire organization is willing to take the risk to have him return to the blueline.

The major decision right off the start will be whether Rutherford will decide to go with the 7 forwards-3 defensemen-1 goalie model, or the 8 total protected alternative. It seems apparent that most teams will opt for the former, because it provides protection to two additional players. The Penguins, however, are facing truly unique circumstances, and it seems slightly more likely that they will opt for the latter.

Assuming they go that route to protect their defensive corps (one of Justin Schultz/Olli Maatta), the decision at forward will not be an easy one. Beyond the big three up front who must be protected, there are a few names which could intrigue Vegas. Considering the cost to acquire him (James Neal), and his absolutely pivotal net-front presence, Patrick Hornqvist seems the safest bet to secure protection. Rutherford is a big fan, and many in management have placed a lot of faith in him. The downside of this, of course, is that it would leave Bryan Rust exposed. Rust has already made a name for himself in big games, with multiple game-winning and series-clinching goals. He has the same net-front mentality that Hornqvist does, and is five years his junior. Hornqvist is the more proven offensive commodity, but Rust’s 15 goals and 28 points are nothing to look down upon. In the wake of a potential loss of the hard nosed but unrestricted Chris Kunitz, this would be a painful blow to the team’s physicality. Thankfully, both Conor Sheary and Jake Guentzel are exempt from selection, which helps solidify their top lines regardless of this decision.

The defense if the 4-4-1 model is adopted is quite easy to predict. Although Ian Cole has been a completely perfect shot-blocking minute muncher this playoff run, he is 28 years old and relatively ineffective at driving offense with speed. Assuming that Schultz re-signs and doesn’t command an absolute robbery of a contract, he will be protected. His playoff run has been mostly solid, if spotted with occasional mishap, and his 51 points last season was good for 6th among defenseman in the league, just behind the likes of Dustin Byfuglien and Duncan Keith. That sort of production isn’t easily replaced, and especially considering Letang’s precarious health situation, he is the go-to offensive defenseman in his absence.

Maatta could certainly find himself on the outs, but it’s difficult to imagine him being exposed in the expansion draft. The team showed a great deal of confidence in him by inking him to a 6 year contract after limited sophomore season action, and his contract at $4.083 is certainly manageable. The 23 year-old two-way defender will certainly need to improve his skating to keep up with the high-flying organizational mentality, and there is the possibility his sluggishness has landed him in serious disfavor. If Rutherford were intent on moving on from Maatta, however, it would not be via expansion – he is too valuable a piece to lose for nothing. A trade is certainly a possibility, but the smart money is on the front office praying for a healthy summer of training and improvement for the young Finn.

It is certainly conceivable that the Penguins do opt for the 7-3-1 option, if they truly value Rust more than Schultz or Maatta. This would result in Rust, Scott Wilson, and one of Tom Kuhnhackl, Josh Archibald, and Carl Hagelin to be the additional protect-ees. (Hagelin’s $4 MM contract would likely make him a prime target for sacrifice under this scenario.) Maatta would be the likely claim in this potentiality, as he is less favored internally for purely stylistic reasons when contrasted with Schultz.

However, it seems more likely that Pittsburgh has already worked out a scenario between Fleury, his agent, and Vegas management regarding Marc-Andre Fleury. Rutherford’s lack of panic around the draft last year has led many to believe that this situation has already been handled, and that perhaps a sweetener will be thrown in for not claiming Bryan Rust or a young defenseman.

Projected Protection List

F Sidney Crosby (NMC)
F Evgeni Malkin (NMC)
F Phil Kessel (NMC)
F Patrick Hornqvist

D Kris Letang (NMC)
D Brian Dumoulin
D Justin Schultz
D Olli Maatta

G Matt Murray

If for whatever reason one of Maatta and Schultz is left to dry in the place of this prediction, the re-signing of Trevor Daley and perhaps even Ron Hainsey would likely follow suit. The loss of Rust would be difficult to sustain on an emotional level, as he has been a leader for the younger Wilkes-Barre call-ups since last season. But with young players like Zach Aston-Reese and Daniel Sprong looking to claim a roster spot in training camp next season, his offensive production would likely be easy to absorb. Ultimately, however, it seems probable that Fleury will be Vegas’ selection. Following his impressive resurgence in the first two round of the playoffs, and his difficult situation in Pittsburgh behind the legendary Matt Murray, it seems a fit that would work for all parties involved.

Expansion Primer: Montreal Canadiens

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

After a down season in 2015-16 where they missed the postseason, the Canadiens rebounded a year later, earning the top spot in the Atlantic Division.  However, the challenges they had scoring in the second half of the season carried over into the playoffs and as a result, they were eliminated by the Rangers in the first round.

After the big trade that saw P.K. Subban shipped to Nashville for Shea Weber last summer, more changes are expected this offseason although not quite to that extent.  One of those changes will come through the expansion draft where as things stand, they could potentially lose a long-time veteran or an intriguing youngster to the Golden Knights.  Here’s a closer look at their situation.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Paul Byron, Daniel Carr, Connor Crisp, Phillip Danault, Jacob de la Rose, Alex Galchenyuk, Brendan Gallagher, Charles Hudon, Stefan Matteau, Torrey Mitchell, Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec, Andrew Shaw, Chris Terry

Defense:

Nathan Beaulieu, Jordie Benn, Brandon Davidson, Alexei Emelin, Keegan Lowe, Nikita Nesterov, Jeff Petry (NMC), Zach Redmond, Dalton Thrower, Shea Weber

Goalies:

Al Montoya, Carey Price (NMC)

Notable Exemptions

F Artturi Lehkonen, G Charlie Lindgren, F Michael McCarron, D Jakub Jerabek, F Nikita Scherbak, D Mikhail Sergachev

Key Decisions

In the time leading up to the trade deadline, it felt as if GM Marc Bergevin may have been hedging against losing a defenseman to Vegas.  He made three separate deals to add defensive depth with the acquisitions of Nesterov, Davidson, and Benn.  The first two look like locks to be left unprotected while Benn certainly presents an interesting case.

Between Petry’s NMC and Weber’s status as their top blueliner, those two are locks to be protected while it’s unlikely that they’ll opt to not go with the standard 7-3-1 format.  That leaves just one spot up for grabs between Benn, Beaulieu, and Emelin.  Emelin’s contract ($4.1MM for one more year) makes him a likely candidate to be left unprotected but the same can’t be said for the other two.

Upon being acquired, Benn solidified Montreal’s third pairing and became a go-to player on the penalty kill.  He has two years left on his deal at a cap hit of $1.1MM which is pretty good value for a regular blueliner.  Benn can also play as left and a right defender and that type of versatility isn’t the easiest to find.

Apr 7, 2017; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Canadiens defenseman Nathan Beaulieu (28) makes a pass against Tampa Bay Lightning during the second period at Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Jean-Yves Ahern-USA TODAY SportsAs for Beaulieu, the former first rounder has shown flashes of legitimate top four potential but has also made some tough mistakes in his own end to the point where he was a healthy scratch in the postseason finale.  He took a big step forward offensively this season and at the age of 24, there’s a case to be made that there’s still some upside.  It would be tough for Montreal to risk losing a player like that for nothing.  The last defensive protection spot will come down to these two assuming no trades are made between now and the submission deadline and it won’t be an easy decision either way.

Up front, there are a few choices that Bergevin will have to make.  Alexander Radulov is set to become an unrestricted free agent and will be one of the top players available on the open market.  There’s mutual interest in a return but there’s no doubt that the Golden Knights have the financial wherewithal to make him a sizable offer during their negotiation period in the days leading up to the draft.  If a deal isn’t done between now and then, there’s a case to be made that he could still be worth protecting, just to make sure Vegas can’t up the ante on the bidding early on.

The Canadiens have a pair of young forwards who have had some NHL success but have also struggled at times in Carr and de la Rose.  Carr showed a bit of a scoring touch back in 2015-16 but took a step back this season in both the NHL and AHL.  He still has one year left on his deal with a $725K cap hit.  As for de la Rose, his best impression came as a 19 year old where he played nearly half a season and looked like a core checker of the future.  His offensive game hasn’t exactly developed though and while he’s a center with some size in an organization lacking both those elements, his upside is starting to look a bit limited although he would still fit in nicely as a fourth liner with several years of team control.  He will be a restricted free agent this summer.

Dec 19, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; Montreal Canadiens center Tomas Plekanec (14) skates in warm-ups prior to the game against the Dallas Stars at the American Airlines Center. The Stars defeat the Canadiens 6-2. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY SportsMontreal’s center depth isn’t particularly strong so at the outset, it would only make sense that the team would want to protect what they have.  That may not be the case when it comes to Plekanec.  The veteran of parts of 13 NHL seasons (all with the Canadiens) had a down year in 2016-17, posting 28 points, the lowest he has put up in any full season.  He still brings defensive value to the table but with another year left on his deal with a $6MM cap hit, he may be a safe option to expose.  If Vegas opted to take him, that would open up a lot more financial flexibility for Montreal this summer.

Then there’s Hudon.  He has been one of the top goal scorers at the AHL the last two years but hasn’t really had much of a look with the big club, getting into just six career NHL games (where he collected four assists).  There are questions about his skating but his scoring touch in the minors will make him an intriguing option for Vegas GM George McPhee if Montreal decides to leave him unprotected.  Given their own scoring woes, Hudon is someone that the Canadiens may decide is too important to leave exposed despite his lack of NHL experience.

Beyond Radulov, the only other prominent unrestricted free agent the Canadiens have is Markov.  The 38 year old has solely been with Montreal since they drafted him in 1998 and he has already expressed an interest in returning as well.  Given his age, Markov isn’t the type of player Vegas is likely to target nor would it be likely that Markov would entertain the idea of going to an expansion team at this stage of his career.

Projected Protection List

F Paul Byron
F Phillip Danault
F Alex Galchenyuk
F Brendan Gallagher
F Charles Hudon
F Max Pacioretty
F Andrew Shaw

D Nathan Beaulieu
D Jeff Petry (NMC)
D Shea Weber

G Carey Price

Out of the unprotected players, Benn highlights several blueliners that could step in and help right away while Plekanec would be one of the better centers available.  Although he’d be pricey, he’s also the type of player they could flip for younger assets at the trade deadline.  If Radulov is still unsigned, a significant offer could be made to lure in a legitimate top line winger which would be quite the coup.  Or he could go with a youngster up front (whoever isn’t protected between Hudon and de la Rose most likely) and get someone that will be cost controlled for a few years still through the RFA system while being able to contribute right away.  McPhee should have a few interesting players to choose from the Canadiens assuming no side deal is made between now and the draft.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Expansion Primer: Carolina Hurricanes

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

Going into the 2016-17 season, more people thought that the Carolina Hurricanes would be the worst team in the NHL than thought they would be a playoff team. Yet, the exciting, young ’Canes squad stayed in it until the end, only falling out of playoff contention in the final few games of the season. It was a completely unexpected performance from a team still lacking any major stars, but showed that their youthful nucleus can succeed without them.

Luckily for Carolina fans, perhaps no team in the NHL has a better chance of escaping the upcoming Expansion Draft unscathed than the Hurricanes. Not only does the teams youth protect many of their best players from being draft-eligible, but the team is in fact so young, that there are very few players total that can be exposed. With the league’s deepest young defense almost entirely intact with Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Noah Hanifin and pro prospects Haydn Fleury and Roland McKeown ineligible – each with two or fewer NHL seasons –  and star rookie Sebastian Aho also immune, the Hurricanes can use the rest of their protection slots to cover all their other important players and then some.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Jordan Staal (NMC), Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask, Elias Lindholm, Lee Stempniak, Joakim Nordstrom, Andrej Nestrasil, Teuvo Teravainen, Erik Karlsson, Phillip Di Giuseppe, Brock McGinn

Defense
Justin Faulk, Klas Dahlbeck, Ryan Murphy, Trevor Carrick

Goaltender
Scott Darling, Cam Ward, Eddie Lack, Daniel Altshuller

Notable Exemptions

Sebastian Aho, Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Noah Hanifin, Haydn Fleury, Roland McKeown, Derek Ryan

Key Decisions

The ’Canes have few decisions to make here. Up front, captain Jordan Staal must be protected due to his No-Movement Clause and his supporting cast of young scorers – Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask, Elias Lindholm, and Teuvo Teravainen – will surely join him. With 16 points in 57 games in 2016-17, 22-year-old Brock McGinn has also likely earned his spot on the team. This leaves one forward spot spot left, as Carolina will almost certainly use the 7/3 protection scheme. The odd men out will probably be consummate veteran Lee Stempniak and two-way forward Joakim Nordstrom, who took a step back this season anyway. Those two are the only remaining players that meet the two-forward exposure quota of players with 70 games played over the past two years or 40 games played this past season that also have term remaining on their contracts. Should the Hurricanes want to protect either one, they still have the option of extending restricted free agents Andrej Nestrasil or Phillip Di Giuseppe or impending UFA Jay McClement in the coming weeks, as the trio are only short on term to qualify for the quota. If they choose not to, the choice comes down to Nestrasil, Di Giuseppe, or minor league winger Erik Karlsson for the final spot, with little on the line.

On the blue line the choice is even easier. By re-signing Klas Dahlbeck recently, the Hurricanes secured their sacrificial lamb for Expansion. Dahlbeck qualifies to be exposed in accordance with the quota for one defenseman, taking All-Star Justin Faulk off the hook. Young defenseman Ryan Murphy and Trevor Carrick are literally the only other defenseman in need of protection with exactly two defensive spots open to do so.

In net, the decision has already been made. The Hurricanes secured their goalie of the future earlier this month, trading for former Chicago Blackhawks backup Scott Darling and giving him a four-year, $16.6MM deal. In doing so, Carolina also guaranteed that he would be their protected goalie in the draft, as they would not waste their time with such an investment just to let Darling be drafted away to Vegas. Instead, they’ll let the Golden Knights have their pick of long-time starter Cam Ward, high-end backup Eddie Lack, and prospect keeper Daniel Altshuller. With over $10MM tied up in Darling, Ward, and Lack next season, the Hurricanes hope the Knights take the bait, but even if they don’t, both Ward and Lack will be free agents next summer anyway.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

Jordan Staal (NMC)
Jeff Skinner
Victor Rask
Elias Lindholm
Teuvo Teravainen
Brock McGinn
Phillip Di Giuseppe

Defensemen

Justin Faulk
Ryan Murphy
Trevor Carrick

Goalie

Scott Darling

What is the worst case scenario for the Hurricanes? They could lose Stempniak and be left with over $10MM in goalies. That’s pretty much it. Yes, Stempniak scored 40 points last season, but he’s also 33 years old and has just one year left on his contract. The Hurricanes could replace him in free agency with ease. They also could simply re-sign another forward and protect him if they really want to. As for the goalie, Ward is a lifetime Hurricane and outplayed Lack by a slim margin last year. It really would not be all that bad to have him as a backup to first-time starter Darling next season. GM Ron Francis could surely sweeten a deal (if necessary) to have Vegas take Lack and, if not, should be able to find another suitor elsewhere.

If Stempniak does end up off the board though, is there really any other option for the Knights beyond goalie? At forward, Di Giuseppe gets the nod for the last protection slot over Nestrasil and Karlsson. Nestrasil is already on the outs in Carolina and Di Giuseppe has already passed him up on the depth chart. Karlsson has signed on to return to Sweden next season and will have no impact on the 2017-18 Hurricanes. Carolina is deep enough in prospects, such as Julien Gauthier, Nicolas Roy, Janne Kuokkanen, Warren Foegele, Aleksi Saarela and more that they can risk losing Karlsson without risking losing any sleep over it. On defense, Dahlbeck is the only contracted player that can be taken. While he did play in 43 games with Carolina last season, GM George McPhee will have plenty of quality defenseman to choose from in the Expansion Draft, and Dahlbeck simply doesn’t stand out as worth taking. The Hurricanes are so well protected from the wrath of the expansion process that even unrestricted free agent center Derek Ryan, who quietly put up 29 points in 2016-17 to the tune of $600K, is also exempt from selection, having come over from Europe just two years ago. Goalie seems to be the only real option and even if Altshuller is the pick, he is far from a promising prospect and not at the top of the Hurricanes’ prospect rankings in net. The Knights have few options when selecting a player from Carolina and none of them pose any threat to a team that is on the rise.

Expansion Primer: Los Angeles Kings

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

It was a tough year for the Los Angeles Kings. After bouncing back in 2015-16 with an 102-point season, the squad collapsed this year after early goaltending injuries and a decisive lack of speed from the forward group. After a nice early season return from the old Dustin Brown, he scored just nine points in his final 26 games and again looks like a buyout candidate. Marian Gaborik scored just 21 points all year, and Anze Kopitar had just three goals through the first 35 games (and only 12 on the season).

Despite all that they added at the trade deadline, dealing for Jarome Iginla and Ben Bishop to try and sneak into the playoffs. They missed, and with it the coaching staff and front office were cleared out. New GM Rob Blake is in charge now, and the Kings will be looking for a fresh start. They will select 11th in the entry draft, but first have some decisions to make in the upcoming expansion draft.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Anze Kopitar (NMC), Dustin Brown, Jeff Carter, Marian Gaborik, Tanner Pearson, Trevor Lewis, Kyle Clifford, Jordan Nolan, Nic Dowd, Andrew Crescenzi, Andy Andreoff, Nick Shore, Justin Auger, Michael Mersch, Tyler Toffoli

Defensemen:

Drew Doughty, Alec Martinez, Jake Muzzin, Matt Greene, Brayden McNabb, Derek Forbort, Kurtis MacDermid

Goaltenders:

Jonathan Quick, Jeff Zatkoff, Jack Campbell

Notable Exemptions

Alex Iafallo, Adrian Kempe, Jonny Brodzinski, Kale Clague, Mike Amadio

Key Decisions

The first, and biggest decision the Los Angeles Kings must make is which protection scheme to use. Each team can protect either 7 forwards, 3 defenseman and 1 goaltender (7-3-1) or eight skaters and one goaltender (8-1). Even though the Kings didn’t have much success this season, doesn’t mean they don’t have a lot of players they’d like to protect. The trouble with being a team on the downside of such a run of success, is that most of your key contributors aren’t young enough to be exempt from the expansion draft. Nick Shore

Up front, the team will undoubtedly protect their veteran leadership in Kopitar and Carter, and their young talent in Toffoli and Pearson. If they decide to go with the 7-3-1 route, that leaves them with three spots left to hand out protection to some combination of the other forwards that include Lewis, Clifford, Shore, and Dowd. Even though Brown and Gaborik could be solid marketing options for Vegas as former stars, the contracts attached to both are basically built-in protection.

The problem with going the 7-3-1 route, and why it’s likely the toughest decision the Kings will have to make, is that it would result in the exposure of McNabb and Forbort. Though the previous Kings regime has never really allowed him to play a key role in their blueline, McNabb has elite possession numbers and could easily be a target for a more analytical-leaning Vegas squad. Forbort on the other hand played in all 82 games for the Kings this season, logging over 20 minutes a night attached to the hip of Doughty.

Brayden McNabbBoth McNabb and Forbort are young enough (26 and 25 respectively) to make an impact for several years in Vegas, and for a team like Los Angeles looking to rebuild losing them for nothing would be a mistake. That said, Doughty, Muzzin and Martinez would all easily be the pick if left unprotected and going with the 8-1 protection scheme would put several forwards at risk (and only give one additional protection slot on the back end).

In net, Quick is going to be protected and there isn’t much debate on that fact. The franchise goaltender missed almost the entire 2016-17 season, but is still an excellent starting option and locked in long-term. Campbell could be interesting to Vegas after a renaissance in the AHL this season but with so many other options from the team will likely be an afterthought.

Vegas will have a chance to sign any free agents during their selection window, and today George McPhee said they would be “very aggressive” in doing so. It’s hard to see it coming into effect for the Kings though, as the only real free agent of note is Iginla who isn’t worth forfeiting a selection over.

Projected Protection List

F Anze Kopitar (NMC)
F Jeff Carter
F Tanner Pearson
F Tyler Toffoli

D Drew Doughty
D Alec Martinez
D Jake Muzzin
D Derek Forbort

G Jonathan Quick Marian Gaborik

It’s not a perfect option for the Kings, as they will watch a valuable player walk out the door during the expansion draft if they don’t make a move to protect themselves. They seem like the perfect candidate to work out a pre-draft trade with Vegas in order to take one of their hefty contracts off their hands and allow them some freedom to rebuild over the next few years.

The same way the team was looking to move Gaborik at the deadline, they now may offer an asset up for Vegas to take him off their hands. The problem is that Vegas holds all the cards (sorry), as there isn’t a clear path for Los Angeles to get out of this that doesn’t involve dealing with George McPhee and the Golden Knights.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Expansion Primer: Florida Panthers

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

After cracking 100 points and winning the Atlantic Division in 2015-16, injuries and overall under-performance sent the Panthers tumbling back to Earth in 2016-17. Florida finished with over 20 points less, at 81, good enough for sixth in the division and a top-ten draft slot. Yet, hopes remain high in Sunrise, FL as the Panthers are still a team built around young stars that has just begun to reach its potential. With Huberdeau, Trochek, Barkov, Bjugstad, Ekblad, and Matheson forming a core group under 25 with top prospects like forwards Henrik Borgstrom and Adam Mascherin and goalie Sam Montembeault still on the way, Florida only has to worry about adding complementary pieces to a talented young group.

Yet, the shadow of the Expansion Draft still looms large over the Panthers. With so many good, young players under contract, the expansion process will not be easy for the Cats. They may be able to protect their best young players, but they are nearly guaranteed to lose a solid complementary veteran.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Reilly Smith, Vincent Trocheck, Nick Bjugstad, Jussi Jokinen, Derek MacKenzie, Colton Sceviour, Jonathan Marchessault, Steven Hodges, Michael Sgarbossa, Graham Black

Defense
Keith Yandle (NMC), Aaron Ekblad, Jason Demers, Alex Petrovic, Mark Pysyk, MacKenzie Weegar, Reece Scarlett

Goaltender
Roberto Luongo, James Reimer

Notable Exemptions

Jared McCann, Denis Malgin, Michael Matheson, Ian McCoshen

Key Decisions

The Panthers don’t have an easy decision to make at any position group. They face the risk of losing a prominent forward, defenseman, or goalie if they don’t read the Vegas Golden Knights correctly. Perhaps the biggest name who may be left unprotected in net: potential future Hall of Fame goalie Roberto Luongo. Many were surprised when the Panthers brought back Luongo, and with him the remainder of a 12-year, $64MM contract, in 2014. Even more were surprised when, nonetheless, Florida signed James Reimer to a five-year, $17MM contract on July 1st of last year. That move seems like it has partly been leading up to this point. While Luongo and Reimer each started 39 games in 2016-17 with very similar records, Reimer had the edge on Luongo in performance statistics. While this was their first season sharing the net, it is now the second season in a row in which Reimer has outplayed Luongo. It seems very unlikely that Florida will choose to protect the 38-year-old Luongo, who is under contract at $5.33MM per year until the age of 43, over the 29-year-old Reimer, with a more reasonable $3.4MM cap hit over that same span of time. Luongo will thus likely be one of the biggest names under contract and available to Vegas, but don’t expect a new team to take on that contract. Should they expose Reimer instead, the chances are much higher that the Knights will select a Panther goalie, but chances are both keepers are back in Florida next year regardless.

Among the forward corps, there is a lot to sort out. To get the easy ones out of the way, young scorers Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck, Aleksander Barkov, and Nick Bjugstad are almost surely safe. Assuming the Panthers go with the 7/3 scheme, that leaves them with three forwards left to protect. If they do go 8-skaters, then those four would represent all the protected forwards. After a breakout campaign in which he led the Panthers with 30 goals, 26-year-old Jonathan Marchessault is also highly likely to be protected. This leaves just two spots left for four valuable veteran forwards: Reilly Smith, Jussi Jokinen, Colton Sceviour, and captain Derek MacKenzie. Luckily for the Panthers, all four meet the qualifications (having played 70 games over the last two seasons or 40 games last season and be under contract) to meet the two-forward quota, so whoever the GM Dale Tallon wants he can have without having to consider other expansion criteria. With the free agent status of Jaromir Jagr up in the air, the leadership value of Jokinen and MacKenzie must be considered by a young Florida team. However, MacKenzie has not scored more than 20 points in a season since 2010-11 and is likely not of interest to Vegas and can be left unprotected. So who of Jokinen, Smith, and Sceviour will join him in the Draft? The 25-year-old Smith has the best chance to be the best producer for the longest amount of time in Florida. This also could be a way for the Panthers to dump the five-year, $25MM extension they signed him to last summer before it even begins. As he did with the Boston Bruins, Smith had a great first season with Florida in 2015-16, but just as he did in Boston, Smith fell off significantly in year two. The Panthers will have to re-sign Bjugstad and Marchessault and give non-entry level deals to Denis Malgin, Jared McCann, and others before that contract expires. Can they afford the weight of a $5MM annual cap hit for an average player? If Smith has scared them off, expect them to expose him and hope Vegas takes the risk. If not, it comes down to Jokinen and Sceviour. Again, the 33-year-old Jokinen has the leadership and experience and is just one year removed from a 60-point season. Sceviour can’t boast that kind of career production, but at $950K to Jokinen’s $4MM and Smith’s $5MM, he gets the Panthers more bang for their buck.

Defense is the real nightmare for Florida. Keith Yandle’s No-Movement Clause makes him automatically protected, though he would be protected regardless after signing a seven-year deal last year that began with a nice 41-point season. Aaron Ekblad is also as close to a sure thing as their is in the Expansion Draft as far as protection. The 2015 Calder Trophy-winner struggled a bit last season, but is still a top pair defenseman at just 21 years old. That leaves defensive spot left in the 7/3 scheme and three stalwart defeseman to choose from: Jason Demers, Alex Petrovic, and Mark Pysyk. Unfortunately, unless circumstance change, Demers is out of the equation. With Yandle and Ekblad protected and Petrovic and Pysyk as restricted free agents, Demers is the only defenseman on the roster who can meet the 70-40 quota. It is possible for Florida to re-sign and expose Petrovic, Pysyk, or impending unrestricted free agent Jakub Kindl and then protect Demers, but their hesitation to do so yet seems to imply that they won’t be. Thus, Demers will be exposed and stands a very high chance of playing in Vegas next season. As for Petrovic verus Pysyk, both are similar in age and have great ability, but little to show for it on the score sheet early in their careers. The Panthers brass know best which 25-year-old fits best on the team, and likely both will remain in Florida, but don’t be surprised if they give the homegrown talent Petrovic the nod.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

Jonathan Huberdeau
Vincent Trocheck
Aleksander Barkov
Nick Bjugstad
Jonathan Marchessault
Jussi Jokinen
Colton Sceviour

Defensemen

Keith Yandle (NMC)
Aaron Ekblad
Alex Petrovic

Goalie

James Reimer

Every team has a few risks that they must take in the Expansion Draft. As extraordinarily unlikely as it is, losing Luongo would be a blow and would cause the Panthers to have to change their off-season priorities to focus on helping Reimer in net. Smith being selected could come back to bite them if his $25MM deal pays off in Vegas. Being stripped of their captain would be rough on the locker room and they will likely hold out hope that there is no interest in MacKenzie. Having Pysyk taken from them after he was the centerpiece of last summer’s Dmitry Kulikov trade would feel like a waste.

So what sets Florida apart? Exposing Demers barely qualifies as a risk. The 28-year-old was one of the prizes of free agency last summer and just finished the first season of a relatively affordable five-year, $22.5MM deal. He scored 28 points this season, the second best campaign of his career and a level of production closer to that of his time back with the San Jose Sharks. He also has seen a steady climb in shooting percentage as the years have gone on and could easily break double digits next season, regardless of where he plays. However, the best thing about Demers for the Golden Knights is that he is a safe pick. He can lead their defense, can easily play 20+ minutes per night, can hit and block shots, and is signed long-term, meaning he can become a franchise player and potentially the team’s first captain. Unless the Panthers go 8-skaters or extend a current qualifying defenseman to then protect Demers, they face a real risk of losing a very solid player for nothing after just one year.

Expansion Primer: Philadelphia Flyers

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Philadelphia Flyers are coming off a disappointing season of Metropolitan struggles. Thankfully, with the #2 pick in the upcoming draft, they will receive an infusion a top level talent in Nico Hischier or Nolan Patrick. There aren’t a ton of success stories from this last season for the Flyers, in which Wayne Simmonds led the way up front. Many players took a noticeable step back and the younger forwards failed to produce at an impactful clip.

The Flyers are in desperate need of embracing a full youth movement. The longer they cling to players like Andrew MacDonald, the worse off their rebuild will be. This is not a team that can compete for a Stanley Cup in the near future and with the expansion draft forcing tough decisions, now is the time to embrace that organizational mentality.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Claude Giroux (NMC), Valtteri Filppula (NMC), Jakub Voracek, Brayden Schenn, Sean Couturier, Matt Read, Dale Weise, Michael Raffl, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Nick Cousins, Scott Laughton, Greg Carey, Colin McDonald, Taylor Leier

Defense
Andrew MacDonald, Radko Gudas, Brandon Manning, Shayne Gostisbehere, T.J. Brennan, Will O’Neill, Jesper Pettersson

Goaltender
Michal Neuvirth, Anthony Stolarz

Notable Exemptions

Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny, Samuel Morin, Carter Hart

Key Decisions

The Flyers have to protect two players – both of whom are probably not deserving of the no movement clause they have been granted. Giroux had his second straight offensively disappointing season. At $8.275 MM a season until 2022, the Flyers have created a really difficult situation for themselves. And although previous GM Paul Holmgren was somehow able to unload Mike Richards prior to his momentous fall from grace, Giroux is already known to be an albatross. He’s still producing, with 14 goals and 58 points in his last outing, but he is struggling to be a difference maker against tough competition. Filppula only played 20 games this past season for Philadelphia, so any criticism might be premature. But the well-rounded center has only broken 20 goals twice in his career, most recently 4 seasons ago. He seems rather redundant on a team with lots of mediocre offensive talents.

Voracek might also be slightly overpaid for what he brings to the team ($8.25 MM), as his possession metrics have trended consistently downward over the course of four seasons. That said, he was Philadelphia’s leading scorer in 2016-17 and has a secure roster spot. He’s only two years removed from an All-Star appearance, but is he dominant enough to carry an offense if another key member struggles again? Simmonds is an obvious keeper for the physical edge he brings along with his consistent production.  The net-front presence and leadership skills make him a prime candidate for captain if Giroux were somehow jettisoned in the near future. Both Schenn and Couturier are promising key pieces to the future of the squad, and had solid outings last season.

From here, the decision at forward gets difficult. Weal had solid underlying metrics and showed flexibility in his game. Does GM Ron Hextall believe there is there more to his game, and if so, is he worth signing as a UFA before the expansion draft, burning a protection slot? Probably not. Some believe Cousins is worth protecting, as he is still young at 23 years old, and shown potential at the AHL level. With the other players vying for the position, however, the organization would have to be incredibly high on his ability to piece it all together next season.

The three serious remaining choices – Laughton, Raffl, and Bellemare – a group which likely contains the player to be claimed by Vegas, poses a question which will be entirely decided by organizational philosophy. Laughton is the player who has the highest upside but also the greatest potential for bust. Mike Raffl is a consistent producer whose ability would guarantee a certain amount of offense on a forward corps that can really struggles over long stretches. Bellemare is your classic heart-and-soul player – his latest perfomance in the World Championships put that on display for all onlookers. In the end, based on the praise afforded him by the coaching staff and other players, as well as his assistant captainship, Bellemare could easily find himself as the final protected player. Whether that is the correct long-term decision will be a topic of great scrutiny.

On defense, there are very few players signed. Gudas and Gostisbehere will absolutely be protected, so the third choice is the only one up for debate. Many believe that MacDonald is considered the veteran savvy anchor, but his possession stats have been poor, while his turnover frequency has been disturbing. He plays over 20 minutes a night, but hasn’t performed as consistently as a top-pairing player should. Manning still has room to improve, is four years younger, and posts a positive Corsi influence (51.3%) on a corps that truly floundered all season. Neither is going to be a game breaker for Vegas, but it would seem odd that Philadelphia wouldn’t roll the dice and expose MacDonald in hopes that his $5 MM contract for three more seasons could be removed from the books.

The goaltending decision will be an interesting one for outside watchers. With Steve Mason gone, Neuvirth is obviously their tender going forward, correct? Well, perhaps not. Neuvirth’s stats (.901 SV%) really don’t justify his protection, and especially considering the forward situation, he would almost certainly not be claimed. Stolarz is the goaltender of the immediate future for the team and will see quite a bit of duty this year. The 6’6″ former London Knight is going to be relied upon to take a step forward, and his progression in Lehigh Valley has been quite promising. Exposing him could backfire in a way that leaving Neuvirth open for taking could not. If the team is serious about a youth movement, his value as an asset needs to be shielded.

After quite a few tough determinations, and trying to be realistic about the organization’s valuation of certain players, what follows is the final projection for Philadelphia.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F / 3D / 1G

Forwards
Claude Giroux (NMC)
Valtteri Filppula (NMC)
Sean Couturier
Wayne Simmonds
Brayden Schenn
Jakub Voracek
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare

Defensemen
Shayne Gostisbehere
Radko Gudas
Brandon Manning

Goaltender
Anthony Stolarz

Expansion Primer: Dallas Stars

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Dallas Stars enter the offseason with more questions than answers. Failing to make the playoffs caused consternation in a season where the team was expected to compete. But unlike some teams, the Dallas Stars do not have to worry about losing a significant piece in the expansion draft. The Stars are one of a few teams that will be relatively unaffected by the expansion draft, though some may see that as indicative of a team lacking quality depth.

Jamie Benn, Jason Spezza, and recently acquired goaltender Ben Bishop all have NMCs that mandate protection, and outside of Tyler Seguin, represent Dallas’s best players. Rather, the Dallas Stars may be hoping for some salary relief—though they are not in imminent cap trouble—if the Vegas Golden Knights take one of Dallas’s remaining goaltenders.

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Expansion Primer: Buffalo Sabres

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

After finishing the 2015-16 season with 81 points (a 27 point increase on the previous year) a Stanley Cup-winning coach and a budding superstar who had scored 56 points as a teenager, the Buffalo Sabres felt pretty good about their future. So they went out and gave a 28-year old Kyle Okposo a seven-year, $42MM deal, traded for Dmitry Kulikov and held onto the off-ice troublemaker Evander Kane. It looked like they would compete for the playoffs this season, but the optimism wasn’t held for long.

Decimated by injury, the team couldn’t put it together even after Eichel’s mid-season return and would finish with just 78 points. They now head into this offseason with a much different outlook, clearing house and bringing in first-time GM (save for a short interim period in Pittsburgh) Jason Botterill to hire coaches for both the NHL and AHL clubs. They’ll pick eighth once again in this year’s entry draft and have quite a lot of picks in the first few rounds, though are looking to compete next season and catch up with the success that Edmonton and Toronto realized this season. In terms of expansion, they find themselves in a pretty good spot because many of their prized possessions are still ineligible for selection.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Ryan O’Reilly, Kyle Okposo (NMC), Evander Kane, Matt Moulson, Tyler Ennis, Nicolas Deslauriers, William Carrier, Zemgus Girgensons, Justin Kea, Marcus Foligno, Johan Larsson

Defensemen:

Rasmus Ristolainen, Zach Bogosian, Josh Gorges, Jake McCabe, Justin Falk, Brady Austin

Goaltenders:

Robin Lehner, Linus Ullmark

Notable Exemptions

Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart, Alexander Nylander, Nicholas Baptiste, C.J. Smith, Hudson Fasching, Brendan Guhle, Justin Bailey, Viktor Antipin

Key Decisions

The Sabres have no need to go with the eight skater route unless they make a move for a defenseman prior to the draft, and even then it would mean exposing some of their forwards for no reason. With Franson and Kulikov both headed to free agency, there isn’t a glut of defenders to protect this season. Their biggest decisions will be with the last couple of spots up front, for which there are some interesting candidates.

Obviously O’Reilly will be protected, as he’s likely the team’s second best forward and is still just entering his prime. Though the trade and contract hasn’t worked out exactly as Buffalo had hoped, the 26-year old is still an excellent center capable of competing among the elite players of the game. Okposo too will be protected, though his no-movement clause doesn’t give much chance otherwise. He had a scary bout in the hospital recently, but he is apparently on the road to recovery and should be ready for next season. Kane, for all his trouble outside of the rink is still an effective scoring threat inside of it and will be protected. Whether he starts next year in Buffalo may be another story, but the team won’t just give him away for free. Tyler Ennis

The interesting decisions come in the next few slots. It’s been two years now since Ennis was an effective scorer in the league, dealing with injury and ineffectiveness throughout the year. With just 24 points in 74 games combined over two seasons, his $4.6MM cap-hit looks incredibly high. There are only two more seasons on it, but like Moulson who is in a similar situation, Ennis just doesn’t produce at a high enough level anymore to warrant the deal. The Sabres could leave him available, or protect him and hope for a big bounce-back year in his age-28 season. Similar things could be said for Foligno and Girgensons, who still haven’t found that next level in their offensive production. They each are solid NHL players, and have room to grow but are both restricted free agents this summer and decisions will have to be made on their future with the club.

Among the other interesting young players are Larsson and Carrier, both of whom are second-round picks who have shown snippets of their potential as solid NHL contributors. Larsson missed most of this season due to injury, while Carrier made his NHL debut and stuck for 41 games. Perhaps Botterill believes that one of them has more to give offensively, or could be part of a shutdown line in the future. Vegas would certainly take a risk on either one as they’ve already shown they’re at least capable of staying in an NHL lineup.

Josh GorgesOn defense, there isn’t much to decide outside of perhaps what to do if Gorges is selected. It would be hard to see him earn a protection slot, but the veteran still did log valuable minutes for the Sabres this season. The 32-year old defensive specialist has just one year left on his contract, but could be part of a leadership group in Vegas should they decide he’s worth it.

In net, Lehner will be protected and given the reins to the team once again. Ullmark does pose an interesting option for Vegas, as he has actually posted a strong .913 save percentage in 21 NHL starts. At just 23 he’s ready to take on a bigger role and should spend most of the season in the NHL if Anders Nilsson isn’t retained this summer.

Speaking of Nilsson, he represents one of the possible free agent acquisitions that Vegas could sign prior to the draft if they choose. That would mean forfeiting their selection from Buffalo, but perhaps he or one of the free agent defensemen—Franson or Kulikov—would be worth it. Franson is still a good possession player with solid offensive upside, even if he does need sheltering at times from tough defensive matchups. With such a lack of right-handed shot defensemen on the market, perhaps he would be appealing to the young Vegas club. Giving up their selection from Buffalo would be tough though, and would need them to believe a bidding war of sorts would occur after July 1st—something that for any of the Sabres’ free agents would be hard to believe.

Projected Protection List

F Kyle Okposo (NMC)
F Ryan O’Reilly
F Evander Kane
F Zemgus Girgensons
F Marcus Foligno
F Johan Larsson
F William Carrier

D Rasmus Ristolainen
D Zach Bogosian
D Jake McCabe

G Robin Lehner

As Botterill continues to try and reshape the team into what he wants going forward, leaving exposed the big, underperforming cap-hits of Ennis and Moulson seems like the way to go, even if it does give up the chance of a bounce-back. A 27-year old, three-time 20-goal man would be tough to watch walk out the door, but the Golden Knights would almost certainly jump on Carrier or Larsson if left unprotected.

There is always a chance that the team moves Kane or another forward before the draft, opening up another slot for them to protect. Like many other teams that need defense though, acquiring one before the expansion draft from a worried club would put one of your own at risk. While Bogosian has been somewhat of a disappointment since he arrived from Winnipeg, giving him up for free seems a bit short-sighted. That means a deal for one of the surplus Anaheim defenders, or a Minnesota blueliner doesn’t seem in the cards in the next few weeks.

One thing to note is that newly signed Viktor Antipin is not eligible for the draft, despite his extensive experience in the KHL. The years of professional experience he gained in Russia don’t count towards the expansion draft requirements because he wasn’t playing them under an NHL Standard Player Contract (SPC). He’s a first year pro, and will be untouchable in the draft.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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