Expansion Primer

Expansion Primer: San Jose Sharks

June 13, 2017 at 6:02 pm CDT | by Seth Lawrence Leave a Comment

We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, coming up next week: which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The San Jose Sharks took an expected step backwards this season after an impressive display in 2015-16 saw them reach Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final. The team is certainly at a crossroads, with long-time leaders Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton hitting unrestricted free agency. They were ousted quite easily in the first round by the upstart Edmonton Oilers, and GM Doug Wilson will look to craft a strategy that will put them back in contention for a title.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski, Mikkel Boedker, Joel Ward, Tomas Hertl, Melker Karlsson, Jannik Hansen, Chris Tierney (RFA), Barclay Goodrow (RFA)

Defensemen:

Brent Burns, Paul Martin, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Justin Braun, Brenden Dillon, David Schlemko, Dylan DeMelo, Mirco Mueller (RFA)

Goaltenders:

Martin Jones, Troy Grosenick, Aaron Dell

Notable Exemptions

Joonas Donskoi, Timo Meier, Kevin Lebanc, Marcus Sorenson, Danny O’Regan, Tim Heed, Joakim Ryan

Key Decisions

The Sharks are looking to infuse some youth into their lineup next season, and they are hopeful that one of the poor-performing vets in Mikkel Boedker or Joel Ward will be the only loss to expansion. Unfortunately for them, it seems unlikely that the Golden Knights are looking to acquire many greybeards. A huge debate, at least from the outside, is whether they will opt to protect 8 skaters and one goalie, or the more popular 7F/3D/1G setup. San Jose has done quite well to build a stable group of defensemen, but they do have some forwards they’d prefer not to sacrifice.

On offense, there are three locks to be protected, at the least. Logan Couture and Joe Pavelski are the offensive leaders of this team and are both in the primes of their careers. Tomas Hertl has amazing creativity and flare, and will only improve as he just turned 23. Melker Karlsson seems the next safest bet, as he has displayed great defensive play and versatility. He is the team’s swiss-army knife, and has too much value to sacrifice. The remaining group of forwards that would be exposed if San Jose opts to go the 4F/4D/1G route would be thus: Mikkel Boedker, Joel Ward, Jannik Hansen, Chris Tierney. Losing one of Hansen or Tierney would be irritating, but surmountable.

On defense, Brent Burns is a dominant offensive force from the blueline – he led the league in points from the blueline. Marc-Eduoard Vlasic takes the bulk of quality competition and has been a rock defensively. Justin Braun didn’t have the most phenomenal year, but he is an integral piece of the team going forward. This leaves Paul Martin, David Schlemko, Mico Mueller, and Brenden Dillon all exposed – with one of the group nearly certain to be lost. Martin has been a top-pairing guy for a decade, and his loss would be significant. Vegas’ has stated the goal of starting young and could certainly pass over the 36 year-old. It’s a sizable risk, but it certainly seems a possible scenario that he remains untouched. Dillon hasn’t performed well enough to warrant protection over the other two D-men. He had a much better possession season this year (53.0 Corsi For %) than last (49.3% CF), but his offensive impact is truly minimal. He also sees bottom-pairing minutes and a lower quality of competition than Schlemko.

Of the remaining two, Schlemko is clearly the better player at this moment. Schlemko had a great possession year (54.6% CF)and has been a positive influence on every team he’s played. Protecting Schlemko would serve to provide insurance if Martin were for some reason claimed. There is a marginal case to protect the younger Muelller, as he is only 22 and could serve as a cheap option on the blueline for the next few years. He did only played 4 NHL games last year, and impressed no one, but as a recent first-rounder Vegas could jump on the opportunity. The organization does seem low on him, so he could easily find himself on the outs.

In net, Martin Jones will obviously be the protected asset. The team just re-signed backup Troy Grosenick, but with the plethora of available goalies Vegas can choose from, he’s entirely safe.

Although there are plenty of no-trade clauses (NTCs) on the roster, there are no players who require protection due to an NMC. Additionally, the Sharks will benefit heavily from their foresight (and/or luck) with having Thornton and Marleau both turning UFA this particular off-season. Vegas could theoretically “claim” either, but it wouldn’t do anything other than give the Knights a head start on potential contract negotiations. With those two older players relatively safe, the organization will focus on protecting others who will contribute to their chances in the near future. Schlemko had a solid year and will be playing long after Martin is retired, and that will likely be the tie-breaker.

Projected Protection List

F Joe Pavelski
F Logan Couture
F Tomas Hertl
F Melker Karlsson

D Brent Burns
D Marc-Edouard Vlasic
D Justin Braun
D David Schlemko

G Martin Jones

By all indication, the Sharks are trying to compete again next year. I fully expect them to sign at least one of Marleau and Thornton and to make another strong push in the Pacific before going complete re-build. Burns is still a top defenseman, and with a solid re-tooling of the bottom-six, it’s not an inconceivable goal. Schlemko is not too far behind Martin in terms of performance, and could see his role improved. They are flirting with moving him for assets, which wouldn’t be the worst decision if they then protected Martin. One of the two has to be there to round out the top-four on defense.

As for Vegas, they could go with a semi-“proven” commodity in the speedy Boedker, fill out the roster with the solid but unremarkable Tierney, take a risk on an unproven talent like Mueller, or go the safest route and employ the aged Martin to guide the youngsters along. They will have options, but no loss the Sharks couldn’t endure.

Expansion Primer: Nashville Predators

June 13, 2017 at 5:01 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

Two days ago, the Nashville Predators’ dream season came to an end. A goal scored from nearly behind the net (after a much disputed quick whistle earlier in the game) put the Pittsburgh Penguins up 1-0 in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final, a lead which they would not relinquish. The Predators would have to watch on home ice while the Penguins celebrated winning the trophy, before saluting a crowd that had witnessed the longest playoff run in team history.

Now, they’ll head into the offseason with a bittersweet taste in their mouths from getting so close, and with some huge decisions to make with regards to the future of the team. Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson lead a large crop of restricted free agents that need new contracts, while both James Neal and Juuse Saros could be up for extensions as they have just one year left on their respective contracts. The Predators are one of the most interesting teams when it comes to the expansion draft, as their glut of defenders will likely force them to leave some other intriguing players available to Vegas.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Filip Forsberg, James Neal, Craig Smith, Colin Wilson, Calle Jarnkrok, Cody McLeod, Colton Sissons, Miikka Salomaki, Cody Bass, Trevor Smith, Austin Watson, Ryan Johansen, Pontus Aberg, Viktor Arvidsson

Defensemen:

P.K. Subban, Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Ellis, Andrew O’Brien, Matt Irwin, Yannick Weber, Anthony Bitetto, Petter Granberg, Jaynen Rissling

Goaltender:

Pekka Rinne (NMC), Marek Mazanec

Notable Exemptions

Kevin Fiala, Victor Ejdsell, Vladislav Kamenev, Emil Pettersson, Frederik Gaudreau, Juuse Saros

Key Decisions

One of the tough parts about being a Stanley Cup contender is usually most of your core players are in or entering their prime and thus would be eligible for expansion. That’s the case in Nashville, where virtually all of their key players will need protection in the draft. The first decision they have to make is whether to use the 7-3-1 (seven forwards, three defensemen, one goaltender) or 8-1 (eight skaters, one goaltender) protection scheme. The Predators will most likely choose the latter, because of their deep defense corps. James Neal ” width=”242″ height=”300″ />

Sometimes called a group of four #1 defenders, hyperbolic superlatives aside the Predators have one of the best groups among any blueline in the league. P.K. Subban, Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis all have incredible value, mostly because of the relatively low cap-hits held by the latter three. Leaving any of them available for Vegas would assure they were the selection, meaning that the team will likely only have four slots remaining for the forward group.

Beyond those four, only Matt Irwin holds any real value. The 29-year old defenseman has played well at times in a sheltered role in the NHL, developing into a legitimate option for any third pair in the league. Despite this, he would be an extreme long-shot to be selected by Vegas. Yannick Weber, re-signed just earlier today is even further removed from consideration.

Up front, four slots would leave several players available for the Golden Knights to pounce on. Three will undoubtedly go to Johansen, Arvidsson and Filip Forsberg while the last spot has several options. Today, Pierre LeBrun of TSN speculated on this decision, saying the team could potentially leave Neal unprotected and use it on Calle Jarnkrok instead. Neal is a 29-year old power forward who has scored at least 20 goals every season of his nine-year career. Earlier this year we looked at just how rare his career performance has been, making him an incredibly appealing option for Vegas should he be left exposed. Even though Neal has just one year left on his contract, he would likely be the most talented forward that the Golden Knights could acquire.

Jarnkrok on the other hand is an intriguing option, given the inexplicably cheap contract he signed last summer. At the age of 24 and coming off a 16 goal season, Jarnkrok signed a six-year $12MM contract that bought out several free agent years. Clearly it seems to matter more to him where he plays than how much he earns, as he easily could have made more on the open market when he reached unrestricted free agency. That cost-certainty is appealing to Vegas, as is his ability as a middle-six center that can contribute at both ends of the rink. Centers will likely be the most difficult thing for the Golden Knights to acquire through the draft, and they would likely jump at the opportunity to acquire one that just averaged 17 minutes a night on a team that made it to Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final.

There is also the problem of Colton Sissons, who before the playoffs would have been an afterthought in the expansion draft plans. When Ryan Johansen and Mike Fisher went out with various injuries though, Sissons stepped up and scored more points in his 22 playoff games than he did all season. He showed that there may be more to him than a bottom-six center, and given the right opportunity could thrive with more responsibility.

In net, Pekka Rinne would likely be protected even if he didn’t have the no-movement clause that makes it automatic. Rinne was a big part of how the Predators did so well in the playoffs, and at 34 put up another solid season. Though he’s owed a lot of money—$7MM per season for the next two years—he’ll likely enter next season as the starter once again as the team eases Saros in as the future in net. Saros’ exemption is a big plus for the team, as the 22-year old looks like one of the best young goaltenders in the league after posting a .923 save percentage as a rookie in 19 starts this year.

Among free agents that the Golden Knights may be interested in negotiating with during their exclusive window, only Mike Fisher really stands out. The captain of the Predators is 37 now and though he had a fantastic season for his age—18 goals and 42 points—wouldn’t provide much value for the Golden Knights who figure to struggle the first few years. Other than that, the team could try to negotiate a long-term deal with someone like Pontus Aberg, who showed he may have a future in an NHL top-six and could be tempting should they have a contract in hand by the end of the window.

Projected Protection List

F Filip Forsberg
F Viktor Arvidsson
F Ryan Johansen
F Calle Jarnkrok

D P.K. Subban
D Roman Josi
D Mattias Ekholm
D Ryan Ellis

G Pekka Rinne

The Predators are another team that is likely desperately trying to work out a deal of some sort with the Vegas Golden Knights or any other team, as letting Neal walk for nothing would be foolish. He’s still young enough that he can provide value for basically every team in the league, and wouldn’t be hard to find a suitor even on the last year of his contract. He does hold a limited no-trade clause, but it only allows him to block trades to eight teams around the league. Along with Sissons, Craig Smith, Colin Wilson and others, the Predators are ripe for the picking up front and could easily provide the Golden Knights with one of their best players.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Expansion Primer: Columbus Blue Jackets

June 12, 2017 at 7:36 pm CDT | by Mike Furlano Leave a Comment

The Columbus Blue Jackets surprised everybody with a 108-point finish this season, good for 4th in the NHL. Breakout seasons by Alexander Wennberg, Zach Werenski and Seth Jones propelled the team to its best finish ever, and erased any early-season doubt for embattled coach John Tortorella. Despite the strong finish, however, the Blue Jackets faced the defending (and now eventual) Stanley Cup champions in the first round, losing 4-1 to the Pittsburgh Penguins.

The Blue Jackets are also one of a few teams that faces significant expansion draft issues. The team will lose one significant player no matter how they structure their protection list, and how good that player may be will depend on what the Blue Jackets do with veteran forward Scott Hartnell.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Brandon Saad, Brandon Dubinsky (NMC), Nick Foligno (NMC), Scott Hartnell (NMC), Cam Atkinson, Boone Jenner, Matt Calvert, William Karlsson, Lukas Sedlak, Zac Dalpe, Alexander Wennberg, Josh Anderson

Defensemen:

Seth Jones, Jack Johnson, David Savard, Ryan Murray, Scott Harrington, John Ramage

Goaltenders:

Sergei Bobrovsky (NMC), Joonas Korpisalo, Anton Forsberg, Oscar Dansk

Notable Exemptions

David Clarkson, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Sonny Milano, Zach Werenski

Key Decisions

The Blue Jackets will lose a significant player, that much is certain. There is too much depth in the organization and not enough protection slots. The Blue Jackets will most likely use the 7F/3D/1G protection scheme over the 8F/1G because the team will protect at least three defensemen: Seth Jones, Ryan Murray, David Savard, and Jack Johnson..

Up front, Columbus must protect Brandon Dubinsky, Nick Foligno, and Scott Hartnell. All three have NMCs, and none were asked to waive the clauses before Monday’s deadline. Assuming that none of the above are bought out (more on that later), the Blue Jackets are left with four protection slots, yet have at least seven players worthy of protection. Brandon Saad, Cam Atkinson, Boone Jenner, Matt Calvert, William Karlsson, Alexander Wennberg, and Josh Anderson are all significant enough to warrant protection, and yet three will be exposed in the expansion draft.

No-brainer protections go to Saad, Atkinson, Jenner, and Wennberg. That leaves one of Karlsson, Calvert, and Anderson available for Vegas. Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch thinks Anderson is the most valuable of the unprotected, and would almost certainly be selected by Vegas. Anderson’s 17G and 12A were a nice surprise, and the Blue Jackets will miss him.

All that may change, however, if the Blue Jackets have further plans for Scott Hartnell. The team did not ask Hartnell to waive his NMC clause, implying that the Blue Jackets either have a side deal in place with Vegas, or they plan to buy out Hartnell.

The Blue Jackets may have made a deal with Vegas so that Vegas does not select a certain player in exchange for a prospect or draft pick. If that is the case, the Blue Jackets do not have to worry about opening up a protection slot, and can leave Hartnell alone. Alternatively, the Blue Jackets may buy out Hartnell’s contract, freeing up a protection slot and $3.25MM in cap space next season. Hartnell will be 35 next year, and may not factor into Columbus’s future plans.

On defense, the Blue Jackets will most likely protect valuable young commodities Seth Jones and David Savard, exposing either Ryan Murray or Jack Johnson. Johnson may not put up gaudy numbers—5G and 18A in 82 games—but he still averaged the third most ice time during the season with over 21 minutes a night. He then ramped that up to just under 26 minutes a night in the playoffs. On the other hand, Murray is much younger—23 versus 30—and may have more potential in management’s eyes. Murray will also be an RFA next season while Johnson will be a UFA. And despite Murray’s injury history, the Blue Jackets may opt to go with potential over stability.

In goal, the Blue Jackets must protect Sergei Bobrovsky because of a NMC. That exposes one of Joonas Korpisalo or Anton Forsberg. Korpisalo just signed a two-year extension worth $900K, which allows Columbus to satisfy its goaltending exposure requirement.

Finally, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported that the Blue Jackets are talking to Vegas about David Clarkson. Friedman notes that Columbus may send a first-round pick or a prospect to shed Clarkson’s salary. Clarkson’s playing career is all but over, and he will most likely spend the rest of it on LTIR. However, by moving Clarkson, Columbus has much more wiggle room in the offseason to sign key RFAs, and Vegas has help to reach the salary cap floor.

Projected Protection List

F Brandon Saad
F Brandon Dubinsky (NMC)
F Nick Foligno (NMC)
F Cam Atkinson
F Boone Jenner
F William Karlsson
F Scott Hartnell (NMC)

D Seth Jones
D David Savard
D Ryan Murray

G Sergei Bobrovsky (NMC)

What happens to Scott Hartnell is a toss-up at this point. There is no indication whether Columbus has a deal in place or plans to buy him out. Given Hartnell’s dedication to the organization, however, it may be hard for Columbus to justify buying him out to fans.

Columbus will lose something of value. The silver lining is that they will only lose one player through the draft. That means that, barring any trades, even if they cannot make room for Josh Anderson, Jack Johnson, or Joonas Korpisalo, they still retain at least two of those players through the expansion draft. The Blue Jackets will be a different team after the expansion draft, but it may not be as dire as some predict.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Expansion Primer: Calgary Flames

June 12, 2017 at 3:05 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

The Calgary Flames came into this season with a new head coach, a new starting goaltender and a familiar goal: get back to the playoffs. They’d missed in 2015-16 for the sixth time in seven seasons, but had added a good young player in Matthew Tkachuk who would provide more than anyone expected of him as a teenager, and had signed the duo of Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan long-term.

The goaltending tandem of Brian Elliott and Chad Johnson had what you would call a roller coaster season, struggling at times before catching fire to get the team into the playoffs. As with any up there must come a down, and down it came in the first round as Elliott posted just an .880 save percentage and was yanked after just one goal in the deciding fourth game. The Flames will lick their wounds and try to find a different option in net this summer, while being at little risk of losing anything of value in the expansion draft.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Troy Brouwer, Michael Frolik, Mikael Backlund, Matt Stajan, Lance Bouma, Emile Poirier, Hunter Shinkaruk, Freddie Hamilton, Sam Bennett, Alex Chiasson, Micheal Ferland, Linden Vey, Curtis Lazar

Defensemen:

Mark Giordano, Dougie Hamilton, T.J. Brodie, Matt Bartkowski, Ryan Culkin, Tyler Wotherspoon, Brett Kulak

Goaltenders:

Tom McCollum

Notable Exemptions

Matthew Tkachuk, Daniel Pribyl, Dillon Dube, Josh Healey, Nick Schneider, Tyler Parsons, Jon Gillies, Oliver Kylington

Key Decisions

The Flames have put themselves in a fairly enviable position when it comes to the expansion draft, making savvy moves like signing Matt Bartkowski during the season to fill the defensive exposure requirements. Recently, GM Brad Treliving spoke about the difficulties some teams will have when deciding on their protection lists, and how Vegas will be hard-pressed to find NHL-caliber centers in the draft. That problem is emulated perhaps best by the expected protection on the Flames. They will likely choose the 7-3-1 protection scheme, allowing them to keep their depth down the middle.

Up front, the Flames have just a few decisions to make on the back end of their list, as their five-man core (including three centers, Monahan, Mikael Backlund and Sam Bennett) are easy to point out. In the final two spots, the team will juggle some combination of Troy Brouwer, Curtis Lazar and Micheal Ferland, with the latter two likely earning the slots. Leaving Brouwer exposed is a tough decision to make just one year removed from signing him to an $18MM contract, but after a career-worst 25 points this season his contract may be all the protection he needs. After all, Treliving believes the Golden Knights will be acquiring assets instead of building a team, and Brouwer holds much less value than either of the other two young forwards.

Lazar, acquired at the deadline is another (part-time) center that will be unavailable to Vegas, even though he scored just four points in 37 games this season. The Flames gave up a second-round pick to get him from the Ottawa Senators, and still have big plans for his future in Calgary. The 22-year old was the 17th-overall pick in 2013, and will need a new contract this summer.

Ferland, a former fifth-round pick who has overcome a tremendous amount of personal struggle to even be in the NHL, found success alongside Gaudreau and Monahan at times and showed promise to become similar to what Brouwer has been throughout his career; a physical middle-six winger capable of adding some secondary scoring. While his 25 points are nothing to write home about, he is only 25 years old and showed that he may be capable of a 20-goal season at some point in his career.

There is the possibility Calgary could surprise and protect one of Hunter Shinkaruk or Alex Chiasson, both of whom are former high picks (24th and 38th respectively) that have shown either potential or performance at times throughout their career and are still young enough to contribute to Vegas. Both are long-shots, but could present some value for the Golden Knights if left available.

On defense, there isn’t much debate on the three who will be protected. Mark Giordano, Dougie Hamilton and T.J. Brodie are easy choices, and the reason Bartkowski was acquired in the first place. None of the other potential unprotected defensemen fulfill the requirement of a player who is signed through 2017-18 and played either 40 games this season or 70 the last two combined.

In net, the team actually only has Tom McCollum among non-UFA goaltenders, and signed him earlier in the year in order to fulfill the goaltending requirements. That means they could potentially re-sign Johnson or Elliott before the draft, or acquire another goaltender that would need protection. Marc-Andre Fleury, who has waived his no-trade clause in order to go to Vegas but is still an option for Calgary, as are several of the elite backups around the league. The Flames could go after Antti Raanta, Philipp Grubauer, Aaron Dell or Calvin Pickard in order to provide some value to a team afraid of losing them for nothing, but with such a strong goaltending pipeline may look to the free agent market instead for a shorter term option.

The Flames do have one interesting name when it comes to a free agent Vegas may be interested in: Michael Stone. The 27-year old defenseman is right-handed and has logged big minutes for Arizona in the past. His two-way game fit in quite well with the Flames, but they’ll have to wait to re-sign him until after the draft which gives Vegas an opportunity to talk with him in their exclusive window. If the Golden Knights thinks a long-term deal with Stone is worth more than one of the forward cast-offs, perhaps he is a target for them next week.

It’s worth mentioning that Linden Vey, who may have deserved protection a few years ago is set to play in the KHL next season and will likely be off the radar of both the Flames and Golden Knights. Calgary is expected to qualify him in order to retain his rights for the time being, but will not get to see him in the lineup this year.

Projected Protection List

F Johnny Gaudreau
F Sean Monahan
F Michael Frolik
F Mikael Backlund
F Sam Bennett
F Micheal Ferland
F Curtis Lazar

D Mark Giordano
D Dougie Hamilton
D T.J. Brodie

G Chad Johnson

The Flames are in a good spot for the next few days, able to calmly assess the goaltending market and perhaps help a team out of a jam by taking an asset off their hands. When one of the worst things the team can lose is an overpaid 31-year old year old winger with three years left on his deal, you know you’ve done good work setting yourself up for the draft. It will be interesting to see which forwards fill out the last few spots, and even more interesting to see who Vegas decides to go with for their selection. Will it be a veteran player who can add leadership to an expansion franchise, or a lottery ticket from the minors who could develop into something under the right coaching?

In all, the team can look ahead to a summer filled with tougher tasks like RFA negotiations, rebuilding the bottom half of their defense and finding an answer in net. Some of those may be answered in the next few days, but more likely will stretch into July. With ample cap space and several vacant positions, Calgary will be one of the most interesting teams to follow in free agency.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Expansion Primer: Anaheim Ducks

June 11, 2017 at 9:10 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 3 Comments

The expansion scenario for the Anaheim Ducks is one of the more fascinating stories of this off-season. Ever since the rules of the Expansion Draft were announced, fans have been wondering how the Ducks could traverse such a difficult process for teams with depth at all positions. That was even before Anaheim marched to a Pacific Division title and Western Conference championship appearance behind career-best seasons for Rickard Rakell, Jakob Silfverberg, Cam Fowler, and Josh Manson. Neither the 7-3 scheme nor the 8-skater scheme offer the Ducks enough protection to emerge June 21st unscathed and they have been desperately looking for trade help since they were eliminated from the postseason. Will they find it? Or will the best player on the division rival Vegas Golden Knights be a former Duck?

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Corey Perry (NMC), Ryan Getzlaf (NMC), Ryan Kesler (NMC), Rickard Rakell, Jakob Silfverberg, Andrew Cogliano, Antoine Vermette, Jared Boll, Logan Shaw, Sam Carrick, Chris Wagner, Corey Tropp, Emerson Etem, Nicolas Kerdiles

Defense
Hampus Lindholm, Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler, Kevin Bieksa (NMC), Simon Despres, Clayton Stoner, Josh Manson, Jaycob Megna

Goaltender
John Gibson, Dustin Tokarski

Notable Exemptions

Nick Ritchie, Ondrej Kase, Shea Theodore, Brandon Montour, Jacob Larsson

Key Decisions

The first decision the Ducks really need to make is what scheme they want to use. Many at first thought that the Anaheim would have to use the 8-skater format to protect four defenseman: centerpieces Hampus Lindholm, Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler, and Kevin Bieksa, who has a No-Movement clause. However, as the season went on, that decision became even more difficult. Bieksa fell out of favor under head coach Randy Carlyle and will almost surely waive his clause or, if he refuses, be bought out. Yet, young Josh Manson has developed into a shutdown defender like no other in Anaheim. While puck-movers like Lindholm, Vatanen, or Fowler could be replaced by up-and-coming prospects Shea Theodore, Brandon Montour, and Jacob Larsson or a healthy Simon Despres, the Ducks would be hard-pressed to replace the skill set of Manson.

So, the Ducks could go eight skaters and protect Lindholm, Vatanen, Fowler and Manson. The problem with that is then Anaheim would lose a young impact forward. Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Kesler have No-Movement clauses, but would be locks to be protected regardless. That would leave just one slot left and two budding stars, Rickard Rakell and Jakob Silfverberg, in need of protection, not to mention iron man Andrew Cogliano. Vegas fans were salivating at the though of either Rakell or Silfverberg lining up on the Knight’s first line next year, but after the seasons they had, that seems next to impossible. The Ducks are in win-now mode and can ill-afford to lose one of their vital top-six forwards, especially in such a weak free agent market.

Instead, Anaheim will likely choose to go seven forwards and three defenseman as their protection scheme. Perry, Getzlaf, Kesler, Rakell, Silfverberg, and Cogliano will all be safe, as will three of the Ducks’ top four defenseman. Rather than lose the fourth for nothing, Anaheim has recently boosted its efforts to trade Vatanen. If they cannot, they will have to make a call between he and Manson, as Lindholm and Fowler have separated themselves from the pack as the team’s top two defenders.

The Ducks will also have to make a call about their seventh and final forward. Other noteworthy top-nine regulars like Nick Ritchie and Ondrej Kase are exempt from the draft, so the decision will probably come down to veteran Antoine Vermette or youngster Logan Shaw or Nicolas Kerdiles. Either way, Anaheim is in good shape with meeting the two-forward quota with the likes of Jared Boll and Chris Wagner both qualifying while not really in the conversation for protection. Vermette had a good first season in Anaheim, but he is 34 years old and has lost a step on his famous two-way game. The 25-year-old Shaw plays a physical game and contributed 10 points in 55 games in 2016-17, but was only given limited ice time and doesn’t have the ceiling of a player like Kerdiles. Yet, Kerdiles only played in one regular season game and four playoff games, notching just one assist. His AHL numbers suggest that he could do much more if given the chance though.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

Corey Perry (NMC)
Ryan Getzlaf (NMC)
Ryan Kesler (NMC)
Rickard Rakell
Jakob Silfverberg
Andrew Cogliano
Nicolas Kerdiles

Defensemen

Cam Fowler
Hampus Lindholm
Sami Vatanen

Goalie

John Gibson

If the Ducks are unsuccessful in trading Sami Vatanen, Josh Manson could be the prize of the draft for the Golden Knights. The 25-year-old righty has the makings of top-pair defensive blue-liner who could anchor an entire defense. However, he just simply hasn’t reached that level yet, while Vatanen is an elite puck-mover.

If the Ducks do trade Vatanen, Manson is safe and Vegas won’t touch Kevin Bieksa, nor would would they likely take a chance on the injury-riddled Simon Despres. Minor league-caliber keeper Dustin Tokarski won’t generate any interest either. At this point, that decision on the final forward becomes key. Vegas will be on the lookout to get as much upside as possible in the Expansion Draft, and that is what Kerdiles provides. Anaheim can best protect their forward corps by retaining the young winger’s services. Vegas may have interest in Antoine Vermette as a veteran leader, but it’s doubtful. By default, Shaw could be the pick, but it wouldn’t be a major loss for the Ducks.

From potentially losing Jakob Silvferberg, Rickard Rakell, or Manson, if the Ducks can trade Vatanen and get Bieksa to waive his No-Movement clause, they could in fact leave Vegas with very little to choose from and could escape expansion with largely the same team that nearly made the Stanley Cup Final this season.

Expansion Primer: Boston Bruins

June 11, 2017 at 4:02 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 6 Comments

While the Boston Bruins have a legion of talented young players pushing for major roles, they are still a team that is defined by a veteran core: 2011 Stanley Cup winners Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Krejci, Zdeno Chara, and Tuukka Rask. Add young mainstays like David Pastrnak and Torey Krug and 2016 free agent acquisition David Backes to the mix and it may seem like the Bruins would be in a tough position with expansion like many other deep veteran teams.

However, the expansion process, while burdensome for some, gives the Bruins just enough space to protect all of their most valuable players including that entire core. They still face some tough decisions, but none that will drastically alter the franchise on June 21st.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
David Krejci (NMC), Patrice Bergeron (NMC), Brad Marchand, David Backes (NMC), Matt Beleskey, Jimmy Hayes, Riley Nash, David Pastrnak, Ryan Spooner, Tim Schaller, Alexander Khokhlachev

Defense
Torey Krug, Zdeno Chara (NMC), Adam McQuaid, Kevan Miller, Colin Miller, Joe Morrow

Goaltender
Tuukka Rask (NMC), Anton Khudobin, Malcolm Subban

Notable Exemptions

Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo, Frank Vatrano, Austin Czarnik, Zane McIntyre

Key Decisions

With Bergeron, Krejci, and Backes having No-Movement clauses and Marchand and Pastrnak two of 2016-17 top scorers, Boston is locked into a 7-3 protection scheme. Chara also has a No-Movement clause and Krug isn’t going anywhere so that’s five forward spots and two defensive spots locked up (Rask has a NMC as well if that was even a question). So which three Bruins get the final spots?

There have been many rumors this off-season, and even before the season ended, that perhaps Ryan Spooner’s time had run out in Boston. The 25-year-old center clashed with former coach Claude Julien and, after a brief rejuvenation, also lost play time under replacement Bruce Cassidy, including scratches in the playoffs. However, Spooner is still a top-end passer and a power play expert and the Bruins won’t just let him go for nothing. If Spooner hasn’t been traded before protection lists are due, he is guaranteed a slot. Whether or not he is still traded after the Expansion Draft remains an unknown.

For the final forward spot, the Bruins face a tough decision, but one with few negative repercussions. Jimmy Hayes has been a disaster in Boston and Tim Schaller is nothing more than fourth liner, so neither likely even gets consideration, nor would Vegas be interested unless otherwise incentivized, as has been rumored with Hayes. Alexander Khokhlachev left the organization last summer to play in the KHL, and little attention has been paid to his absence. The Golden Knights have drawn the interest of Russian players, but drafting Khokhlachev, who never proved his NHL viability in Thus, the decision comes down to Matt Beleskey and Riley Nash. Beleskey had a career year in Boston in 2015-16, the first of a five-year deal, and seemed to fit in well with the Bruins. After a brutal, injury-riddled 2016-17 campaign, that fit is in doubt and there have been rumors that the team might look to trade a pick to Vegas in order for them to take the remaining three years and $11.4MM off of their hands. However, a healthy Beleskey could be far more valuable than Nash, who struggled to produce in his first season with the Bruins. Yet, Nash is a versatile veteran forward and a key penalty killer who makes just $900K next year. Hayes, Beleskey, and Nash all fulfill the 40/70 qualification and two will be exposed, so the team won’t have to worry about that requirement.

On defense, the decision holds some more weight. If Boston is unable to entice the Knights into selecting Hayes or Beleskey, it seems most likely that a defenseman will be chosen. The team must choose whether they want to protect long-time Bruin Adam McQuaid, exciting young player Colin Miller, or perhaps the most complete player of the group, Kevan Miller. Joe Morrow was once a top prospect, but his time to reach those lofty expectations in Boston has come and gone and the Bruins would be happy if Vegas chose to take him instead of one of the other two. Assuming that doesn’t happen, this becomes a big decision. Colin Miller is just 24 years old and an offensively-minded puck-mover, whereas Kevan Miller and McQuaid are very similar stay-at-home types. Colin Miller was also a major piece of the Milan Lucic trade from just two years ago. However, his development has had its fair share of bumps and Kevan Miller has definitely established himself as a more complete player. McQuaid also is in the mix and could be the beneficiary of club loyalty and a desire to have a seasoned vet behind young centerpieces Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo on the right side of the blue line. All three players meet the 40/70 qualification and have term on their contracts, so again meeting that one-player quota won’t be a concern.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

David Krejci (NMC)
Patrice Bergeron (NMC)
David Backes (NMC)
Brad Marchand
David Pastrnak
Ryan Spooner
Riley Nash

Defensemen

Zdeno Chara (NMC)
Torey Krug
Colin Miller

Goalie

Tuukka Rask (NMC)

The general rule of expansion (and just common sense) is that if you’re allegedly willing to trade a draft pick to move a player, like Matt Beleskey, you’re probably happy with taking the risk of leaving him unprotected as well. Riley Nash played his best hockey toward the end of the season and that effort level next season at only $900K is tough to pass up. Still, the Bruins are unlikely to lose a forward, unless they do make a trade, because of the superiority of the players that they could potentially expose on defense. Kevan Miller is likely the best defenseman of the three, but Colin Miller brings a unique skill set from he and Adam McQuaid and has youth and potential on his side. Vegas would likely jump on the chance to take a young, offensive defenseman like Colin Miller, while there may be several defenseman of similar caliber to Kevan Miller and McQuaid available. Protecting Colin Miller may in fact be the Bruins’ best chance of retaining all three. If Vegas does pass up on a defenseman, it will be to take a goalie. No, not Anton Khudobin. Khudobin finished the season with a stretch of some of his best play since his last stint in Boston, but Vegas has more than enough options for backups that Khudobin won’t be of interest. Instead, young keeper Malcolm Subban could be the pick. Subban has been passed up by Zane McIntyre on Boston’s organizational depth chart and simply doesn’t appear destined to be an NHL regular with the Bruins at any point. Vegas GM George McPhee has stated that the team will likely draft many goalies and a minor leaguer with some promise would not be a wasted pick. Subban would also be the most harmless pick the Bruins could endure.

Expansion Primer: St. Louis Blues

June 10, 2017 at 7:10 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 5 Comments

The St. Louis Blues did pretty well for themselves at the 2016 Trade Deadline when they swapped Kevin Shattenkirk for a package including prospect Zach Sanford and a first-round pick only to make just as far in the postseason as the Washington Capitals, the conference semifinals. Not only did they get value for an impending free agent, but they also acquired pieces that didn’t effect the expansions process, while additionally simplifying their decision on defense. Armed with a large core of forwards in their prime and the likes of Sanford and other ready to replace any potential losses up front to lower-tier players, the Blues are in pretty good shape heading into the Expansion Draft.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Vladimir Tarasenko, Paul Stastny, Alexander Steen, Jaden Schwartz, Jori Lehtera, Patrik Berglund, David Perron, Vladimir Sobotka, Ryan Reaves, Dmitrij Jaskin, Kyle Brodziak, Magnus Paajarvi, Nail Yakupov, Jacob Doty, Landon Ferraro, Jordan Caron, Ty Rattie

Defense
Alex Pietrangelo, Jay Bouwmeester, Carl Gunnarsson, Robert Bortuzzo, Joel Edmundson, Petteri Lindbohm

Goaltender
Jake Allen, Carter Hutton, Jordan Binnington

Notable Exemptions

Colton Parayko, Robby Fabbri, Zachary Sanford, Ivan Barbashev, Jordan Schmaltz

Key Decisions

Not many decisions to be made for St. Louis. In net, Jake Allen is the present and future and is a lock for protection. On defense, captain Alex Pietrangelo and veteran Jay Bouwmeester make up one of the top pairs in the league and are signed long-term. They’re not going anywhere. With young stalwart Colton Parayko exempt, his equally youthful pair Joel Edmundson, who is fresh off a strong sophomore campaign, is an easy choice for the third and final defensive spot.

Where things get a little less clear is at forward. Superstar Vladimir Tarasenko, line mate Jaden Schwartz, and long-time Blues Alexander Steen and Patrik Berglund, both of whom signed extensions this past season, are all as good as protected. After returning to St. Louis and having an outstanding season, David Perron is also likely safe, as is veteran leader Paul Stastny. Barring an unexpected decision regarding any of those six players, that leaves just one forward spot left. Heading into the 2016-17 season, that core also included center Jori Lehtera. However, the 29-year-old played in just 64 games this season scoring only 22 points, a major drop-off from the year before and a second straight season with steep decline. The salary cap-strapped Blues might not mind losing Lehtera and his two remaining seasons with a $4.7MM cap hit. After all, St. Louis did push to bring Vladimir Sobotka back from the KHL, a task they finally accomplished toward the end of the season, and Sobotka rewarded them with six points in 11 playoff games. It would certainly be strange to work so hard to bring the two-way ace back from Russia just to lose him to the Golden Knights for nothing. However, there are a handful of young players that St. Louis will have to consider as well, namely Magnus Paajarvi, Dmitrij Jaskin, and Nail Yakupov. Paajarvi has been in the NHL for seven years, but is still just 25. He’s never been able to carve out a full-time role with the Blue and Gold, but perhaps the team sees something in him. The homegrown Jaskin has also struggled to be a regular player for the Blues, but has certainly shown upside from time to time and only recently turned 24. Lastly, Yakupov, a former #1 overall pick, was acquired just last off-season from the Edmonton Oilers, but was never given a real role in St. Louis this year. Yakupov has a ton of potential, but the Blues are chasing a championship and may not be concerned with waiting around to see if he pans out at the cost of a true contributor.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

Vladimir Tarasenko
Jaden Schwartz
Alexander Steen
David Perron
Paul Stastny
Patrik Berglund
Vladimir Sobotka

Defensemen

Alex Pietrangelo
Jay Bouwmeester
Joel Edmundson

Goalie

Jake Allen

It would simply be too strange to let a valuable, versatile player like Sobotka go after just re-gaining his talents. Vegas GM George McPhee would surely jump at the opportunity to add a player with Sobotka’s skills to his new team. There is less certainty surrounding a player on the decline in Lehtera or unproven commodities like Paajarvi, Jaskin, or Yakupov. For the Knights though, certainty is a luxury they can’t afford, as they will surely pick up several project players. Lehtera could provide some veteran leadership and solid player down the middle, but it seems more likely that talented player in need of more opportunity, like Jaskin or Yakupov, would be the choice. St. Louis will also expose two dependable veteran defenseman in Carl Gunnarsson and Robert Bortuzzo, both signed to reasonable contracts through 2018-19, but the Knights will see a lot of good defenseman in the draft and neither player really jumps out. Expect the pick to be a project forward, whose loss may not impact the Blues much, but could pay off well for Vegas.

Expansion Primer: Chicago Blackhawks

June 10, 2017 at 12:38 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 5 Comments

Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

While the regular season was a strong one for Chicago, it failed to translate into postseason success as the Blackhawks were swept at the hands of the Predators. GM Stan Bowman has promised change, some of which will come through expansion. Here’s a closer look at their situation when it comes to the upcoming draft.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Artem Anisimov (NMC), Ryan Hartman, Marian Hossa (NMC), Tomas Jurco, Patrick Kane (NMC), Marcus Kruger, Michael Latta, Richard Panik, Dennis Rasmussen, Jonathan Toews (NMC), Jordin Tootoo

Defense:

Niklas Hjalmarsson (NMC), Duncan Keith (NMC), Ville Pokka, Michal Rozsival, Brent Seabrook (NMC), Viktor Svedberg, Trevor van Riemsdyk

Goaltenders:

Corey Crawford (NMC), Jeff Glass

Notable Exemptions

D Gustav Forsling, F John Hayden, F Vinnie Hinostroza, D Michal Kempny, F Tanner Kero, F Artemi Panarin, D Jan Rutta, F Nick Schmaltz

Key Decisions

Based on earlier reports, their strategy seems to revolve around van Riemsdyk. The belief is that if the Golden Knights are willing to take Kruger and his $3.083MM cap hit off their hands in a trade, they’ll leave the blueliner available to be selected in the draft. With three rearguards carrying no-move clauses though, there isn’t much of a real protection threat to Vegas here. Protecting van Riemsdyk would require a switch to protecting just eight skaters which would open up an intriguing option up front for the Golden Knights.

With the recent re-signing of Kempny as well as the addition of Rutta, the Blackhawks are certainly hedging against losing van Riemsdyk. With Brian Campbell and Johnny Oduya expected to depart, the 25 year old becomes a candidate for a bigger role next season which would make his departure tough to swallow. That could be lessened by getting Kruger’s contract off the books but is leaving van Riemsdyk unprotected enough of a sweetener by itself? On the surface it may seem like it but that may not be the case.

If the discussed deal falls through and Chicago opts to go with protecting eight skaters to keep van Riemsdyk away from Vegas, the Golden Knights would likely happily snap up Hartman and not have to take on Kruger’s contract. That seems like an even worse outcome for the Blackhawks who would lose a promising young forward and still be in trouble when it comes to the salary cap. Accordingly, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Blackhawks had to add something else to the rumored trade to get it done.

That presents Bowman with another option he’ll have to consider – trade van Riemsdyk before expansion. While that would mean that their efforts to move Kruger will have fallen through, they would at least stand to get some value back for their blueliner while going with a 7/3/1 scheme would result in them not losing anyone of much consequence to Vegas. There are a few ways this could go and van Riemsdyk is at the core of all of them.

Up front, there aren’t a lot of decisions to really be made thanks to the four no-move clauses. Hartman and the recently-extended Panik would stand to snap up the fifth and sixth slots with a handful of players vying for the last one.

Considering their cap situation, it’s safe to suggest Kruger will be left unprotected no matter what. Tootoo was in and out of the lineup this past season and there’s a good case to be made that his extension was in part to ensure that they had enough forwards to meet the 40/70 exposure requirements.

That leaves Jurco and Rasmussen for the last spot. Jurco is coming off two straight disappointing seasons and failed to produce with Chicago after being acquired. However, at 24 years of age, there’s still hope that he could turn it around. Rasmussen played more of a regular role after getting into 68 games but did so almost exclusively in a fourth line depth role. While he played more than Jurco, it’s conceivable that Bowman and Chicago would use their last spot on potential upside before a depth checker.

If the Blackhawks wanted to protect both, they could conceivably ask Hossa to waive his no-move clause. His contract and age would make him a safe bet to pass through. However, teams appear to be very hesitant to approach their veterans about doing so; as a result, this is a very unlikely scenario.

Chicago doesn’t have many unrestricted free agents and among them, none would likely be appealing to Vegas GM George McPhee. Campbell and Oduya are the best ones available and neither of them should interest an expansion team, especially since plenty of younger blueliners will be made available to them from other teams.

Projected Protection List

F Artem Anisimov (NMC)
F Ryan Hartman
F Marian Hossa (NMC)
F Tomas Jurco
F Patrick Kane (NMC)
F Richard Panik
F Jonathan Toews (NMC)

D Niklas Hjalmarsson (NMC)
D Duncan Keith (NMC)
D Brent Seabrook (NMC)

G Corey Crawford (NMC)

Assuming that Bowman and McPhee agree on the rumored deal that would send Kruger to the Golden Knights with van Riemsdyk left unprotected, this could be one of the less-intriguing teams to watch when it comes to expansion. If it doesn’t happen though, then they’ll be worth keeping an eye on. Do they protect van Riemsdyk anyways and switch to the eight skater scheme? Do they leave him unprotected outright? Do they trade him beforehand? Considering how much Chicago’s situation seems to revolve around him, their expansion situation could more or less be termed ‘van Riemsdyk watch’.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Expansion Primer: Toronto Maple Leafs

June 7, 2017 at 3:07 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

The Toronto Maple Leafs entered the 2016-17 season fresh faced and looking to start a new chapter in their long history. After ripping apart the old core by moving Phil Kessel and then Dion Phaneuf in blockbuster trades, the team had finished last and acquired the prize they’d hoped for: Auston Matthews. Adding Matthews to an incredibly young group resulted in success for the franchise, squeaking in the playoffs as the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference.

Though they were eliminated by the Washington Capitals in six games, not many Toronto fans were upset with the outcome. The teenaged-success of Matthews and Mitch Marner had revitalized their hopes and they head into this summer as legitimate contenders for the playoffs once again. Because of their reliance on youth, the expansion draft doesn’t pose as big of a problem for them as some other teams.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Joffrey Lupul, Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak, Leo Komarov, Matt Martin, Eric Fehr, Kerby Rychel, Ben Smith, Josh Leivo, Connor Brown, Seth Griffith, Brendan Leipsic

Defensemen:

Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner, Alexey Marchenko, Martin Marincin, Connor Carrick

Goaltenders:

Frederik Andersen, Antoine Bibeau, Garret Sparks

Notable Exemptions

Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Zach Hyman, Nikita Soshnikov, Kasperi Kapanen, Nikita Zaitsev, Calle Rosen, Nathan Horton

Key Decisions

With most of their prized assets exempt already from the draft, Brendan Shanahan and Lou Lamoriello were able to easily prepare for the draft during the season. They accepted Eric Fehr from the Pittsburgh Penguins at the deadline, and re-signed Ben Smith to a minimum salary deal in order to fulfill the forward exposure requirements, and can easily go with the 7-3-1 protection scheme in order to limit Vegas’ selection.

Up front, the Leafs have a few obvious choices like Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk and Tyler Bozak. Each of those three set career highs in points this season, and hold value either to the team long-term (Kadri) or on the trade market this summer and next year. Past that, the team will likely hold onto Leo Komarov for his defensive ability and Connor Brown as the oft-forgotten rookie who also scored 20-goals this season. That leaves them with two spots and a few decisions to make.

Out of the rest of the forwards, Matt Martin has the best case for protection after signing a four-year pact with the team and playing in all 82 contests. Head coach Mike Babcock has spoken quite highly of his leadership and role on the team, and after leading all NHL forwards in hits for the sixth consecutive season means more to them than just his offensive production (or lack thereof). After that, a decision between Kerby Rychel, Josh Leivo or Brendan Leipsic will likely round out the list and leave two players as possibilities for Vegas.

Rychel was acquired by the Leafs last offseason in exchange for Scott Harrington, and is a former first-round pick of the Columbus Blue Jackets. After a slow start, he finished with 52 points in the AHL and will look to try and crack the roster next year if he’s still in Toronto. Leivo spent most of the season in the press box, contributing whenever he could get himself into the lineup. With 10 points in 13 games, he showed that he could contribute offensively. If selected by Vegas he—or Leipsic, who was a point-per-game player in the AHL this season—could figure into their top six, as skilled forwards will be hard to find for the expansion club.

On defense, three slots should be enough as Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner and Connor Carrick are the only ones with any real future in Toronto. Both Matt Hunwick and Roman Polak are free agents, while Alexey Marchenko and Martin Marincin played rarely for the club even when healthy. On that note, the Leafs could theoretically acquire another defender before the draft and leave Carrick (or several forwards) exposed.

In net Frederik Andersen is a virtual guarantee, as neither of the younger goaltenders warrant any thought. Bibeau and Sparks have both had up-and-down careers so far, and neither project to be of interest to Vegas.

Among their trade deadline acquisitions was Brian Boyle, who could be of some interest to Vegas in the exclusive negotiation window. The Golden Knights will have a chance to talk to free agents, and Boyle would be a solid addition to their forward group and likely a better option than any other Maple Leaf. Boyle has always seemed interested in heading back to Tampa Bay in the offseason though, where his wife and newborn baby still reside. Other than that, the free agents don’t hold much interest for the young Golden Knight franchise.

The team doesn’t have to worry about any no-movement clauses, as Horton’s is the only one held by players under contract. Because of his degenerative back injury that will keep him from playing ever again, he was included on the list of injury-exempt players alongside the man who was traded for him, David Clarkson.

It’s interesting to note that while Nathan Horton appears on the exempt list due to injury, Joffrey Lupul does not. Lupul hasn’t played in the NHL since partway through the 2015-16 season but maintains that he would like to play again at some point. He’s under contract for another year, and seems no closer to seeing the ice in Toronto as the day he was banished to “Robidas Island”, a fictional place that Lamoriello sends players he no longer wants to be around the team due to their “injury”.

Projected Protection List

F Nazem Kadri
F James van Riemsdyk
F Tyler Bozak
F Leo Komarov
F Matt Martin
F Connor Brown
F Kerby Rychel

D Morgan Rielly
D Jake Gardiner
D Connor Carrick

G Frederik Andersen

Toronto isn’t in bad shape when it comes to the draft, but there has been chatter since he was acquired that the team has already worked out a deal with Vegas to take Fehr off their hands. Though he’s hardly expensive, his $2MM cap-hit could be better spent by the Maple Leafs who will have bonus overages to deal with this summer. Remember, that even though Lupul and Horton’s cap-hits can be put on long-term injured reserve and not count towards the cap during the season, they do affect it during the summer. A team can only go over the cap by 10% at any time during the offseason, making the Leafs’ salary cap situation tighter than you’d think.

The Maple Leafs have also been rumored in relation to basically every defenseman that may be on the market this summer, and though it’s most likely they would wait until after the expansion draft to acquire one the possibility does still exist that they’d snatch one up off a team with protection issues going into the draft. Either way, they’ll be a team to watch over the next few weeks as they’re bound to be involved in many of the trade talks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Expansion Primer: New York Islanders

June 6, 2017 at 4:11 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 1 Comment

When the New York Islanders went out last summer and signed Andrew Ladd, they expected him to be an integral piece of their top six and a veteran who could show the rest of the team what it meant to be Stanley Cup contenders. After all, Ladd had won Cups with both Carolina and Chicago, and the Islanders were coming off two straight 100+ point seasons and a round 1 victory over the Florida Panthers. His season very much mirrored the year for the rest of the team, who started off ice cold and found themselves in last place in the Eastern Conference as the calendar turned to December.

The Islanders would eventually catch fire much like Ladd, who after scoring just two goals in his first 24 games would finish the season with 23. New York, riding a six game win streak to finish the season would push the Maple Leafs to the brink but ultimately fall just a point short of the eighth and final playoff spot. Now, having missed the playoffs and still struggling to find a permanent home, they’ll go into the offseason with much on their minds. Outside of re-signing John Tavares to a long-term deal (which is clearly their focus), they’ll select 15th at the entry draft and navigate the troubled waters of the Vegas expansion draft.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

John Tavares (NMC), Andrew Ladd (NMC), Nikolai Kulemin, Anders Lee, Cal Clutterbuck, Casey Cizikas, Josh Bailey, Brock Nelson, Ryan Strome, Jason Chimera, Shane Prince, Alan Quine

Defensemen:

Johnny Boychuk (NMC), Nick Leddy, Travis Hamonic, Thomas Hickey, Dennis Seidenberg, Ryan Pulock, Scott Mayfield, Adam Pelech, Loic Leduc, Matthew Finn, Calvin de Haan, Jesse Graham

Goaltenders:

Jaroslav Halak, Thomas Greiss, Christopher Gibson

Notable Exemptions

Mikhail Grabovski, Anthony Beauvillier, Michael Dal Colle, Joshua Ho-Sang, Mathew Barzal, Jake Bischoff

Key Decisions

The expansion draft for the Islanders hinges on two key decisions: 1) Will Boychuk waive his no-movement clause and accept exposure knowing that Vegas is unlikely to select his long and expensive contract? 2) Knowing the answer on Boychuk, which of the two protection schemes (seven forwards, three defensemen or eight skaters) will they decide to employ?

At forward, the second decision looms large as at least nine players have various cases for protection. It would be tough to expose any of the Tavares-Ladd-Lee-Bailey-Nelson group, as they are the core of the forwards and are all young enough (save for perhaps Ladd) to grow and contribute together over the next several years. Outside of those five Cizikas, Strome, Prince and Quine all carry some mixture of potential and performance. Strome carries the investment of a fifth-overall draft selection despite his recent disappointments, making him a tough name to leave off your list at just 23 years old.

Those final few spots up front will be dependent on how the Islanders feel about their defense core though, as they’re at risk of having to expose a good young defender like de Haan or Hamonic. Even if Boychuk decides to waive his NMC, the eight-skater protection scheme would still likely leave Pulock, a 22-year old former 15th-overall pick exposed along with other options like Hickey or Pelech. It also would leave several interesting players available up front.

In net, Greiss will be the obvious protection choice after he took the net this season and was given a three-year extension. It’s not clear that Greiss is a better goaltender at this point than Halak, but he does come cheaper and will be able to hold the fort until some of the Islanders’ outstanding goalie prospects make it to the NHL. The Islanders could swing a deal with Vegas in order for them to take Halak off their hands, but with the amount of goaltending options the Golden Knights are sure to have, it would cost New York a legitimate asset.

The Islanders don’t have any unrestricted free agents that would interest Vegas in their negotiating window, but one has to wonder whether de Haan would be a perfect candidate for a long-term deal with the Golden Knights if he is left unprotected. As a restricted free agent this summer, the 26-year old de Haan will be allowed to speak with Vegas during the window and after his very good season and impressive performance at the World Championships, he could be a big part of a surprisingly good Golden Knights defense corps from day 1.

It’s important to note that Mikhail Grabovski is ineligible for the draft because of his long-term injury, one which he may never return from. Grabovski last played on March 15th of 2016, when he returned from a concussion suffered a month earlier. After experiencing symptoms again, he wouldn’t for the remainder of that year and spent this entire season on long-term injured reserve. He was listed among the other exemptions like David Clarkson and Nathan Horton earlier this year.

Projected Protection List

F John Tavares (NMC)
F Andrew Ladd (NMC)
F Anders Lee
F Josh Bailey
F Brock Nelson
F Ryan Strome
F Casey Cizikas

D Johnny Boychuk
D Nick Leddy
D Travis Hamonic

G Thomas Greiss

Protecting Hamonic over de Haan would be debatable for years to come, which forces the us back to the first question; will Boychuk waive his NMC? It’s not even that Boychuk is a bad player, quite the opposite. Just that at $6MM per season for the next five years, his contract is likely protection enough to keep him out of Vegas for the time being. The Golden Knights want to acquire bad contracts in exchange for assets, not just take them off team’s hands for free.

The other thing the team might think about is the good young forwards that are almost ready to be added to the group up front, and if that means they could afford to lose one of their current players. Ho-Sang and Dal Colle should make an impact this season, while Barzal is one of the best prospects in the entire league after another outstanding season in the WHL. Room will have to be made for these young players eventually, and perhaps now is as good a time as any. Either way, the Islanders have some big decisions to make over the coming few days as protection lists are due on June 17th. We’ll find out what choices they made the next day.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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