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Evgeny Kuznetsov

RFAs Looking For Playoff Payouts

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Every post-season, players look to make their mark. Relative unknowns break onto the scene, rookies steal the show, and goaltenders go from backup to fan-embraced starter. Contracts are always in the back of management’s thinking, however, and a strong post-season showing for a player can cost a team in dollars. Here are some restricted free agents who could stand to earn a more lucrative deal depending on how far their teams go and how bright they shine individually.

 

Ryan Johansen – NSH

Johansen will look to get a slight raise from his current $4.0 MM cap hit. A large determinant for whether he will see a take-home pay ($6.0 MM) decrease or not will be his performance in these playoffs. Johansen’s past two seasons have been fruitful in terms of points, 60 in 15-16 and 61 in 16-17, but not quite the numbers of the marquee offensive star Nashville fans were hoping for. This is a player who scored 33 goals in the 13-14 season, and was projected to consistently flirt with 80 points. Johansen’s imposing frame and play-style is a challenge for opposing centers, and he has undeniably improved his defensive prowess. Johansen only potted 14 goals this year, but it is fair to say his game has become more well-rounded. His Corsi For % took a massive hop from last season, taking a solid 52.3% to a remarkable 55.9% this past outing. Considering his quality of competition and his ability to provide solid two-way play, Johansen will be looking to prove his worth this post-season with a deep post-season run with the Predators.

Evgeny Kuznetsov – WAS

Washington’s Kuznetsov should definitely be considered part of the team’s core. At 24 years old, the center has already tallied a 77 point season and had a 5-goal playoff run. His inconsistency in terms of production could hinder his payday, however, as he struggled to regain his footing in what was essentially his third full season. He returned to form on the backend of the season, totaling a respectable if unremarkable 59 points. The flashy forward already has 3 points through 5 games against Toronto,  and a strong playoff showing can only help his position. With Nicklas Backstrom taking first-line duties and the red-hot Justin Williams on his wing, Kuznetsov could easily find himself in the spotlight again. Whether his next contract is a bridge deal at a lower cost or a long-term lock-down, Kuznetsov is certain to see a raise from his measly $3 MM.

Leon Draisaitl – EDM

Anyone who has watched Edmonton this season in hopes of catching a glimpse of Connor McDavid has undoubtedly been shocked and/or awed by the dominance of his 21 year-old linemate Draisaitl. Draisaitl’s vision with the puck and dogged determination make him a beautiful sight to behold. He accumulated an absurd 77 points this season, 29 goals and 48 assists, in what was only his second full season. The forward is already flirting with a point per game, and has shown remarkable chemistry with the generational talent McDavid. His flexibility in being able to shift from center to wing only makes him that much more valuable to the franchise. The Oilers will obviously pay whatever price is needed to lock up Draisaitl long-term, but the deeper the team goes, the better his bargaining position. He’s obviously going to get a fair deal more than his current $3.4 MM, likely upwards of $6 MM.

Conor Sheary – PIT

Conor Sheary had an incredible breakout season that practically no one, even Penguins fans, expected. On Sidney Crosby’s wing, the short-statured winger made himself absolutely invaluable. The chemistry the two showed together hadn’t really been seen since the likes of Hossa in Pittsburgh’s Finals run of 2007-08. Sheary is in a bit of a bind, however, as Jake Guentzel has shown equal or even greater chemistry with the league’s marquee center since being placed on the top line. Sheary struggled to find his groove in the first round series, even being demoted to the third line in favor of Patric Hornqvist. Sheary is a good bet to string together solid showings in the next round, but if he does not, perhaps it impacts his case for a long-term contract. Regardless, Sheary will look to eat up a large portion of the money allocated this offseason in Pittsburgh, as his current $0.925 MM cap hit is one of the best bargains in the league. His 53 points in 61 games placed him at 23rd in the league in points per game, ahead of the likes of Phil Kessel and John Tavares.

Mika Zibanejad – NYR

The Rangers organization loves this player, and it is easy to see why. His point totals had steadily increased the past three seasons, and he was looking to do so again if he did not miss so many games to injury. Zibanejad is a strong center who takes pride in his two-way ability. He has a solid shot, although he might be criticized for under-utlizing it, and is often deployed against opposing team’s top players. Considering that New York gave up the solid veteran Derick Brassard to acquire his skillset, they are nearly certain to double down on Zibanejad’s continued improvement. His role will only expand as the leadership of the team ages and he will be expected to fill some of the leadership void left behind. Zibanejad is up for a new contract, and will look for a sizable raise over his current $2.625 MM. There is perhaps still untapped offensive potential left in Zibanejad’s game, but will he display it in these playoffs? He has already potted 4 points in 6 games in the team’s successful series against Montreal, including an overtime winner.

Snapshots: Kuznetsov, Michalek, Penguins

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Among the many pieces of interest in Isabelle Khurshudyan’s excellent profile of Evgeny Kuznetsov for the Washington Post, was the fact that the 24-year old center would love to stay in Washington for his whole career, and that Capitals’ GM Brian MacLellan admits a long-term deal could be in the future. Kuznetsov is a restricted free agent this summer and is coming off another excellent season with 59 points in 82 games—already the third season in which he’s played at least 80. That durability is a big part of why he’s such an important piece for the Capitals to lock up long-term, but it won’t be easy for them to do so this summer.

Washington has quite a bit of money coming off the books, and with Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky, Brett Connolly, Dmitry Orlov, Nate Schmidt, Phillip Grubauer and a host of minor league players all set to become restricted free agents, it is still going to be a tight squeeze. Should the team want to re-sign any of the excellent veterans—T.J. Oshie, Karl Alzner, Kevin Shattenkirk and Justin Williams to name a few—that are heading to unrestricted free agency, it will be even tighter. Handing out long-term deals may seem like a good idea, but it just might not be possible for everyone in Washington.

  • The Minnesota Wild have called up Steve Michalek from the AHL to serve as their third goaltender tonight. In the playoffs, teams often carry an emergency netminder in case something happens to one of theirs in the warm-up. As Michael Russo of the Star Tribune explains, this will likely be Alex Stalock after the next two Iowa Wild games. Stalock started two games down the stretch for the Wild over Darcy Kuemper, and it is still unknown who would go into the net should Devan Dubnyk falter or suffer an injury.
  • The Pittsburgh Penguins recent history with turning minor league players into capable NHLers helped them land one of the biggest NCAA prizes this spring, as Shawn P. Roarke of NHL.com writes in his latest piece. Zach Aston-Reese admits that it was part of his decision to sign there: “to see how much [AHL players] have grown as players and contributed to the team’s success at the NHL level, that was really attractive.” Conor Sheary, Bryan Rust and Tom Kuhnackl are all prime examples of what starting off your young players in the minors can do for their development, as the Penguins head into the playoffs with a lot riding on players like those three.

Metro Division Notes: Shattenkirk, Rangers, Schultz

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Since deciding they would need to deal veteran defenseman Kevin Shattnkirk rather than risk losing him for nothing as a free agent, the St. Louis Blues worked hard to find a team with whom the blue liner would agree to a long term extension and thus be able to extract top value from their asset via trade. Deals evidently fell through with Edmonton and Tampa Bay, however, due to Shattenkirk’s preference to test unrestricted free agency. Ultimately the Blues caved and marketed Shattenkirk as a rental, agreeing to send him to Washington for a fair return, though likely not as high a price as they originally hoped to secure.

But according to Isabelle Khurshudyan of The Washington Post, the idea of Shattenkirk representing only a rental may be a bit premature. The scribe notes that both sides would be open to the blue liner remaining with the Capitals beyond the 2016-17 postseason. However, as Khurshudyan also points out, the team has several other potential free agents that would likely take priority over re-signing Shattenkirk, who may be more of a luxury to the Caps than a vital cog. With $51MM already committed to the 2017-18 salary cap, it’s far more likely the team will focus their limited resources on bringing back potential UFA’s T.J. Oshie and Karl Alzner, while also working out an long-term extension with talented center Evgeny Kuznetsov. Those deals would easily eat up most of the Capitals available space, leaving it nearly impossible for them to also fit Shattenkirk in under the cap barring a surprising trade to clear salary elsewhere.

More from the Metro:

  • The New York Rangers, another team believed to have been interested in the aforementioned Shattenkirk, instead opted to shop in the second tier market, coming away with the solid, if unspectacular Brendan Smith at the deadline. It’s unclear whether the Blueshirts have enough talent to seriously contend for a Stanley Cup in a conference that includes the Capitals, Penguins and Blue Jackets, any one of whom has a decent shot to come out of the East. But one prominent former player thinks the team’s speed, skill and depth is enough to launch the Rangers into Stanley Cup contention. Justin Terranova of the New York Post spoke with former Blueshirts team captain Dave Maloney, and the MSG analyst contends the team is a far cry better than the one that flamed out in round one of last season’s playoffs and is good enough to win it all in 2017. He cites the changes made in how the team plays in their own end as a major difference between this year’s Rangers and last season’s edition. Maloney also adds that bringing in Smith addressed a team need and that while the blue liner hasn’t lived up to his billing as a former first-round pick, his size, mobility and familiarity with Ryan McDonagh and Derek Stepan, former teammates of his at the University of Wisconsin, make him a strong fit on the team’s back end. It remains to be seen whether the Rangers defense corps is good enough to slow down teams like Washington and Pittsburgh come playoff time, even after the addition of Smith.
  • While deadline day disappointed many given the lack of high profile deals, anyone who needs a refresher that often times less significant swaps turn out to ultimately have more impact than the blockbusters need look no further than Pittsburgh’s Justin Schultz. The defenseman entered the league with high expectations after a stellar college career, but Schultz struggled in three-plus seasons with Edmonton before a deadline deal to Pittsburgh just one year ago helped resurrect his career. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette notes that the 26-year-old blue liner last night broke the 40-point plateau for the first time and may now be well on his way to scoring a lucrative multiyear extension as a restricted free agent this summer. Twelve months ago, in search of some skill and depth on the blue line, the Penguins shipped a third-round pick to Edmonton for Schultz and the former Wisconsin Badger ended up playing a significant role in the team’s run to the Stanley Cup championship. Now with 10 goals and 41 points on the season, he is among the league’s top offensive threats from the back end and may be in line for a huge raise over the $1.4MM salary he currently makes. Not bad for a relatively inconsequential trade deadline acquisition one year ago.

Expansion Draft Issues At The Trade Deadline: Forwards

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This trade season is one like never before. The addition of the Vegas Golden Knights in 2017-18 and the Expansion Draft that goes along with it add a whole other layer to trade-making this year. With each and every transaction, the expansion draft protection formula can change. Even in 2000, when the Minnesota Wild and Columbus Blue Jackets were welcomed into the league, the expansion rules were not a strict and general managers did not have to be as paranoid about their moves. This time around, everything is different. What does it all mean? For fans, there is a real possibility that this could be the quietest Trade Deadline in recent memory. Buyers interested in impending free agent rentals may not have to worry about the draft implications, but the sellers potentially taking back roster players with term certainly do. Trading is hard enough, especially in a season with very few teams significantly out of the playoff race, and expansion will only increase those barriers. Luckily, there are several teams that need to make moves prior to the deadline or they could risk being in very sticky situations when the Knights get ready to make their selections. With teams like the Minnesota Wild, Pittsburgh Penguins, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Anaheim Ducks, who have so much talented, veteran depth at multiple positions, there is really not much that they can do; they’re going to lose a good player. For others, a sensible contract extension can solve all of their problems. However, for these teams, making a trade before it’s too late may be exactly what they need. We’ve looked at the defense conundrums of the Calgary Flames, Carolina Hurricanes and the goaltending scenario of the Philadelphia Flyers, but there a quite a few more teams with problems up front that need solving:

Chicago Blackhawks

Luckily for the Blackhawks, it’s hard to remember a deadline where GM Stan Bowman didn’t add a veteran forward. This year they may really need one though, regardless of their Cup run condition, to protect young scorer Ryan Hartman. The 22-year-old winger has 13 goals and 10 assists in his first full season with Chicago, and if nothing changes it would likely be his last season in Chicago. In setting their protected list for the Expansion Draft, the Blackhawks must protect Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa, and Artem Anisimov due to their no-movement clauses. They would, of course, have protected those four anyway, but other than that group, the team has only two other players that meet the draft criteria of having two unprotected forwards that have played in 40 games this season or 70 games over the past two seasons and have term remaining on their contract: Marcus Kruger and Hartman. Kruger is not a great loss, but retaining Hartman is a major priority as the deadline approaches. The ‘Hawks could simply re-sign 30-year-old Andrew Desjardins or 34-year-old Jordin Tootoo, who both hit the 40/70 benchmark, but are impending free agents. However, the pair have combined for one point in 63 man-games this season and may not strike Bowman as players worth keeping, since they are nearly guaranteed to not be selected by Vegas. Richard Panik and Dennis Rasmussen are both restricted free agents who would also qualify if given an extension, but the team might think twice about exposing either player when they don’t have to. If push comes to shove, Chicago would surely rather lose Rasmussen or have to re-sign Desjardins if it means that Hartman is safe, but acquiring an affordable, serviceable forward with years remaining on his contract prior to the deadline may be the easier move for Bowman and company.

Dallas Stars

Despite their performance this season, the Stars are very much built like a team trying to make one last run at a Stanley Cup. Only five players on Dallas and on the AHL’s Texas Stars have both two years of professional play under their belt and term remaining on those contracts. The rest of the team is composed of impending unrestricted free agents and the AHL squad is mostly restricted free agents.  Jamie Benn and Jason Spezza have no-movement clauses and are obviously safe, as is All-Star Tyler Seguin. However, without any further moves, Dallas would have to leave 25-year-old center Cody Eakin and team enforcer Antoine Roussel exposed in the draft. With the likes of Radek Faksa, Brett Ritchie and (probably) Valeri Nichushkin needing to be protected as well, the Star’s may have to leave one or the other on the table, but certainly not both. Roussel is having a career year, on pace to beat his career-high 29 points while also skating a career-best 15 minutes per game. Eakin, who missed time earlier this year and has been held to just six points in 33 games, is regardless coming off of three straight seasons of 35+ points and is just entering his prime. If they want to protect one or both, moves need to be made. Dallas is not short on extension options, with UFA’s Patrick Sharp, Patrick Eaves, Jiri Hudler, Lauri Korpikoski, Adam Cracknell and even the injured Ales Hemsky meeting the 40/70 criterion. However, if the Stars want to make up for their disappointing season, trading several of those players for picks and prospects at the deadline seems likely may eliminate some choices. In the process of moving out that trade capital, it may simply be easier for GM Jim Nill to add one or two qualifying forwards along the way.

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Metro Division Snapshots: Williams, Calvert, Di Pauli

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Now in the midst of his 16th NHL campaign, Washington Capitals winger Justin Williams has carved out a solid career as an excellent two-way player that excels at driving possession and one who is a proven playoff performer. In more than 1,000 regular season contests, Williams has tallied 251 goals with 387 assists while compiling a Corsi For % of better than 57%. Despite his past success, Williams finds himself mired in a deep slump this season, though as Isabelle Khurshudyan writes, the three-time Stanley Cup winner is trying to stay positive.

On the season, Williams has potted just two goals and four points in 22 games for the Capitals; a scoring pace which if maintained would result in the lowest full-season output of his career. But even at 35, it’s likely Williams still has enough gas in the tank to turn his season around. Last year, Williams tallied 22 goals and 52 points, totals which suggest there should be plenty of quality hockey left.

Khurdshudyan notes that Williams’ season to date can be summarized by a sequence during the Capitals recent tilt against the Islanders. Late in the first frame, Williams appeared to cash in on a cross-ice feed from Evgeny Kuznetsov but replays showed the puck crossed the line just after time expired in the period.

Williams’ struggles can be attributed at least in part to a shooting percentage well off his career rate. For his career, Williams has found the back of the net on 9.3% of his shots on goal. To this point in the campaign his success rate is just 4.1%. Williams is still generating shots near his career average – 2.64 per to 2.22 – which reinforces the belief that it’s likely just a matter of time before the veteran winger starts putting the biscuit in the basket again with regular frequency.

Elsewhere in the Metro Division:

  • The Columbus Blue Jackets announced that they have activated veteran checking winger Matt Calvert from IR. Calvert, who had missed the past five contests with an upper-body injury, has two goals and three points in 17 appearances for the Blue Jackets this season. Rob Mixer, who covers the Jackets for the team’s official website, adds that Calvert is likely going to be in the lineup tomorrow night when Columbus travels to Arizona to take on the Coyotes.
  • Pittsburgh Penguins prospect Thomas Di Pauli underwent back surgery today and is expected to miss up to 12 weeks, according to a tweet from the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins official Twitter account. Di Pauli signed with the club as a college free agent this summer, spurning overtures by the Washington Capitals, the team that originally drafted the young center in the fourth-round of the 2012 draft. In his first pro campaign, Di Pauli has just one point, a goal, in eight games.

Friedman’s Latest: Spooner, Flyers, Canadiens, Trouba, Capitals

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As is the case every Tuesday, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman released his latest 30 Thoughts column.   As always, the whole article is worth a read but here are some of the highlights, including Ryan Spooner in Boston, the Flyers looking to free up some cap space, an update on Jacob Trouba, and more:

  • Teams are expressing an interest in Boston center Ryan Spooner, particularly since he was a healthy scratch for their home opener. He’s one year removed from a 49 point season with a cap hit of just $950K so he’d fit in on the cap for most teams around the league.  He’s still just 24 years of age so it’s certainly conceivable that the Bruins still view him as part of their future.  Friedman wonders if prospect Austin Czarnik could play a role in whether or not the team looks at moving Spooner.  He may not be ready for full-time duty just yet but he could be in the near future.
  • With Michael Del Zotto and Scott Laughton are nearing a return to the lineup, the Flyers are believed to be trying to make a move to free up some cap room. Both players are currently on LTIR so the team will need to get cap compliant before they can activate them.  Matt Read is off to a strong start this year with five goals already and Friedman suggests they may not be as willing to move him now as they were earlier.
  • The Canadiens are shopping for some defensive help but are in particular looking for a top four player. With Cam Fowler presumably off the market and Jacob Trouba not believed to have interest in playing for any of the Canadian teams, there aren’t really many of those available at the moment.
  • Speaking of Trouba, he has shown no interest so far in a short-term bridge deal that would allow him to get back to action while still basically maintaining his trade request. We took a closer look yesterday at where things are with Trouba, who has one month to sign or else he’ll be forced to sit the rest of the NHL season.
  • With Evgeny Kuznetsov (pending RFA) and Karl Alzner (pending UFA) needing contracts at the end of the year, Washington GM Brian McLellan acknowledges that this could be the last run for the Capitals with their current core group. He believes the team is as strong as it has been in a long time down the middle with the addition of Lars Eller although he is off to a slow start offensively with just one goal so far this season.

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