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Central Notes: Jets, Blues, Blackhawks

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Scott Billeck of The Winnipeg Sun speculated today about what the Winnipeg Jets might do with their available extra roster spot. The Jets currently sit third in the Central Division with a 30-12-5 record and could be looking to make a big swing at the upcoming NHL trade deadline.

The Jets will need a roster spot to activate center Mark Scheifele off the injured reserve but have some other roster moves they could make including waiving Dominic Toninato or Axel Jonsson-Fjallby and sending them down to the Manitoba Moose. Billick wonders if the Jets might opt to do that and call up Ville Heinola so the team can have eight available NHL defensemen.

He also wondered if the Jets might offer up Heinola in a trade if they are looking to make a bigger move at this year’s trade deadline.

In other Central Division notes:

  • Elliotte Friedman mentioned on his 32 Thoughts podcast that St. Louis Blues general manager Doug Armstrong has made several players available on the NHL trade market but hasn’t been able to generate much in the way of interest. There is one player that Friedman believes that the Blues could trade easily and that is forward Pavel Buchnevich. Friedman adds that moving the 28-year-old would be a pretty easy trade to make which indicates to Friedman that the Blues likely aren’t interested in moving on from him. Buchnevich is having a terrific year in St. Louis with 17 goals and 22 assists in 46 games while averaging almost 20 minutes a night in ice time.
  • Elliotte Friedman indicated on his 32 Thoughts podcast that the Chicago Blackhawks had kicked the tires on Vancouver Canucks forward Andrei Kuzmenko. A potential trade makes sense from both sides given that the Blackhawks are in desperate need of scoring and the Canucks need to move out some salary. Kuzmenko would be a bounce-back candidate for the Blackhawks if they were able to facilitate a move as he had 74 points in 81 games last season but has struggled this year with just eight goals and 13 assists in 43 games. Kuzmenko has a year left on his contract after this season at $5.5MM meaning that the Blackhawks would be acquiring a player they could move at next year’s deadline as a rental if he isn’t a fit with their core.

Afternoon Notes: Nylander, Palat, Heiskanen

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Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported some updates yesterday on the William Nylander contract negotiations. Friedman believes that there is a deal to be made between Nylander and the Toronto Maple Leafs but that the negotiations are delicate, and both sides want to be careful moving forward. The Maple Leafs want some certainty from Nylander so they can move on and understand what they need to address going forward, as well as how much cap space they can allocate to other areas of need. For Nylander, he’s stated publicly in the past that he wants to stay in Toronto, and it doesn’t appear anything has changed.

Nylander bet on himself in the offseason as the Maple Leafs were looking to get this contract extension done for under $10MM annually. But, with Nylander on pace for career highs in both goals and assists his extension will likely be over $11MM annually. Friedman believes that the Maple Leafs are okay with this being a pricey extension, but they also understand that there are other variables Nylander has to consider other than money and term.

In other afternoon notes:

  • New Jersey Devils reporter Amanda Stein tweeted that Devils head coach Lindy Ruff told reporters this morning that Ondrej Palat will likely miss the next few games. Palat suffered a lower-body injury in practice on Tuesday and did not play Wednesday night. The 32-year-old has struggled to live up to expectations after signing a five-year $30MM deal with the Devils in July of 2022. In 84 games spread out over one and a half seasons, Palat has just 13 goals and 24 assists.
  • Lia Assimakopoulos of The Dallas News is reporting that Dallas Stars defenseman Miro Heiskanen was not on the ice for Stars practice today after suffering a lower-body injury in last night’s game against the Colorado Avalanche. Heiskanen crashed into his goalie early in the third period and left the game. There is no word yet on the severity of the injury, although TSN’s Pierre LeBrun is reporting that there is optimism that the injury is not long-term.

Evening Notes: Zadorov, Vlasic, Poehling

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Elliotte Friedman reported today that Vancouver Canucks recent trade acquisition Nikita Zadorov never received a formal contract extension offer from the Calgary Flames. Friedman went on to add that Calgary and Zadorov had different opinions on the length of a potential extension as the Flames wanted to be cautious while Zadorov was looking for long-term security.

It’s an understandable position from both sides given the circumstance they both find themselves in. Calgary has several undesirable long-term contracts on the books and was likely hesitant to add another one, while Zadorov has never had more than two years of security on a contract (outside of his ELD). The differences were too much for both sides to overcome which led to the Flames dealing the pending unrestricted free agent to Vancouver.

In other evening notes:

  • Curtis Pashelka of The Mercury News is reporting that San Jose Sharks defenseman Marc-Édouard Vlasic is unlikely to be traded anytime soon. While that news isn’t surprising, the timing is interesting given that Vlasic was re-inserted into the Sharks lineup two nights ago after being a healthy scratch for a stretch. It seems that for the right price any contract in the NHL can be moved, however, there hasn’t been a contract situation quite like Vlasic’s. The 36-year-old has no points in 15 games this season and is playing under a $7MM cap hit for this season, and two more years after that. He has a modified no-trade clause that allows him to submit a list of three teams in which he would accept a trade. The other wrinkle in a potential trade is that if the Sharks were to retain salary, it would represent the final time they can do that until one of the current retained contracts expires.
  • The Philadelphia Flyers announced tonight that center Ryan Poehling would miss their game against the Arizona Coyotes due to an illness. No word yet on whether Poehling is expected to be out of Flyers lineup for any length of time. Poehling has already missed three games this season as a healthy scratch as the 24-year-old has struggled during his first season in Philadelphia. Poehling has had a far more advantageous deployment in Philadelphia than he did in Pittsburgh last year, but his analytics and defensive metrics aren’t what they were despite being given more offensive opportunities.

Chicago Blackhawks Acquire Anthony Beauvillier

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Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet is reporting that the Chicago Blackhawks are expected to acquire forward Anthony Beauvillier from the Vancouver Canucks. Friedman believes that the Canucks will receive a fifth-round pick in return from Chicago in return. The Canucks have been desperate to free up cap space and have been reportedly shopping Beauvillier for weeks but haven’t been able to make a move until today.

The Blackhawks were looking for depth after Taylor Hall went down for the season due to injury and Corey Perry’s contract was terminated earlier today. Beauvillier’s cap hit is just a tick higher than Perry’s at $4.15MM, none of which was retained in this trade. He is in the last year of his deal, meaning that Chicago isn’t making a long-term commitment by acquiring the 26-year-old.

For his part, Beauvillier has been a solid contributor throughout his NHL career, although he has become overpaid in recent seasons due to the flat salary cap. He had a career-high 40 points last season scoring 18 goals and 22 assists in 82 games. Over the past six seasons, Beauvillier has remained consistent, posting at least 28 points in each season.

For the Canucks, they unburden themselves from an expensive contract for the remainder of this season and gain some much-needed breathing room under the salary cap. The Canucks desperately need help on their blue line and will likely take those savings to try and find some help on the back end

NHL Upholds Charlie McAvoy’s Suspension

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Nov. 8: After the appeal process, Bettman has decided to uphold McAvoy’s four-game suspension, Chris Johnston of TSN and The Athletic reports.

Nov. 2: Sportnet’s Elliotte Friedman tweeted that Boston Bruins defenseman Charlie McAvoy is planning to appeal the four-game suspension he received for his illegal check to the head of Florida Panthers defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson. McAvoy had a phone hearing with the Department of Player Safety on Tuesday shortly before he received news of the suspension.

Much like the Calgary Flames’ Rasmus Andersson suspension appeal, Gary Bettman would hear a McAvoy appeal because the suspension is for less than six games. In the case of Andersson, Bettman rejected the appeal and kept the suspension at four games.

McAvoy had just scored the game-tying goal mere moments before the hit occurred in the third period of Monday night’s game against Florida. McAvoy hit Ekman-Larsson with a blindside check in which the initial impact was the head of the Panthers defenseman. McAvoy was assessed a five-minute match penalty and was kicked out of the game. Ekman-Larsson was hurt on the play and stayed on the ice but did remain in the game.

The Long Beach, New York native was suspended once before back in 2019 when he was involved in a hit to the head of then Columbus Blue Jackets forward Josh Anderson during the Bruins run to the Stanley Cup Finals.

McAvoy is sitting out the first game of his suspension tonight as the Bruins battle the Toronto Maple Leafs. If McAvoy’s suspension is upheld by Bettman then the 25-year-old won’t be eligible to return to the lineup until November 11th against the Montreal Canadiens.

Injury Notes: Liljegren, Chytil, Senators

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The Toronto Maple Leafs have tweeted that defenseman Timothy Liljegren has left tonight’s game against the Boston Bruins and won’t be returning. It is the second time in less than a week that the 24-year-old has had to leave a game with an injury as he was forced to exit a game last week against the Nashville Predators with what was described as an upper body injury.

Liljegren’s injury tonight is being called a lower body injury, but it appears likely it is something in his foot or ankle. The injury happened in the dying moments of the first period as Liljegren and forward Brad Marchand of the Bruins were skating towards the corner and engaging in a puck battle. Marchand appears to give Liljegren the can opener before the Maple Leafs defenseman goes awkwardly into the boards. The move from Marchand was essentially a trip as he appeared to put his stick between Liljegren’s legs and force him to the ice. Liljegren’s skates then smashed into the end boards, likely causing his injury.

In other injury notes:

  • Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet is reporting that New York Rangers forward Filip Chytil is done for tonight’s game after colliding with Carolina Hurricanes forward Jesper Fast in the first period of the matchup this evening. Chytil left with what is being described as an upper-body injury and was last seen on the Rangers bench in obvious pain before leaving the game. The 24-year-old center has six assists in nine games this season and has been working primarily as the team’s second-line center. Should he be out for any period it is likely that Vincent Trocheck was moved up to the second line in his absence.
  • The Ottawa Senators have tweeted that young forward Ridly Greig left tonight’s game against the Los Angeles Kings with a lower-body injury and did not return. The news was similar for Greig’s teammate Mark Kastelic who also suffered a lower-body injury and was unable to get back onto the ice. Senators coach D.J. Smith offered an update on both players that was covered by Murray Pam of Full Press Hockey. Smith said that he figures both Greig and Kastelic will miss a few games due to their ailments. Greig has been filling in admirably for the suspended Shane Pinto and has registered two goals and five assists in eight games while Kastelic has no points and 21 PIM in eight games this year. Given the Senators’ predicament, it does seem likely that the team will have to recall some players from the Belleville Senators of the AHL.

Latest On Conor Garland Trade Market

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Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported today on the 32 Thoughts podcast that he believes that Luke Schenn’s injury will lower the probability that the Nashville Predators get involved in the Conor Garland sweepstakes. Friedman theorizes that the Canucks’ desired return for Garland could be defenseman Dante Fabbro, but given the injury to fellow defenseman Schenn, the Predators will likely have less of an appetite to make the move.

The Predators announced this morning that Schenn would be out 4-6 weeks with a lower body injury leaving Nashville a man short on the back end and unlikely to further deplete their defense core. The Predators have a need at forward, but given Friedman’s words, it appears that they don’t want to create a hole to fill another one.

For the Canucks, the injury could remove one potential suitor for the 27-year-old Garland from a trade market that already favors the buyer. The NHL Network’s Kevin Weekes reported today that the Canucks are willing to retain around 30% of Garland’s cap hit for the remaining two years, a step that may be necessary to move the player in a difficult trade market that has so many teams within $1MM of the salary cap ceiling.

The Canucks appear to be hopeful that they can clear some cap space with the Garland move to facilitate other transactions and give the team some much-needed salary cap flexibility. But, unless another team has an early season injury to a winger, the Canucks may need to be patient and wait until the trade deadline when teams will have more flexibility under the cap. The Canucks have been proactive in their approach and gave Garland’s agent permission to seek a trade to another, but nothing has materialized at this time.

Garland’s playing time has been down significantly to start the season as he has averaged just 11:34 of ice time through the first three games of the season, down substantially from the 15:16 of ice time he has averaged throughout his six-year career. The native of Scituate, Massachusetts, has posted 84 goals and 111 assists in 325 NHL games and has been difficult to play against throughout his career, despite being undersized.

Philadelphia Flyers Willing To Take On Salary

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Anthony Di Marco of The Fourth Period is reporting that the Philadelphia Flyers are prepared to weaponize their cap space to acquire additional assets. The Flyers begin today with less than $1MM in salary cap space, a number that would translate to roughly $3.9MM at the NHL trade deadline. Now that number might not seem significant, but the Flyers can easily free up over $6MM by placing defenseman Ryan Ellis on LTIR, something they’ve been hesitant to do thus far, but are willing to do to make a trade work.

After years of being slammed up against the salary cap, the Flyers have finally created roster and salary cap flexibility after a summer in which they moved on from veterans Kevin Hayes, Tony DeAngelo, and Ivan Provorov. General Manager Daniel Briere seems fully committed to rebuilding the Flyers and appears willing to take on undesirable contracts in exchange for future assets.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported just two weeks ago that the Flyers were open to taking on Ottawa Senators forward Mathieu Joseph and his $2.95MM cap hit in exchange for a high prospect or a first-round pick, something Ottawa appears uninterested in entertaining. However that could change if they start the season slow without their second and third-line centres.

While a Joseph deal hasn’t materialized the Flyers will likely have their pick of suitors as the flat cap has created a financial landscape in which 19 NHL teams are within $1MM of the salary cap ceiling (including Philadelphia). There are a lot of teams that see themselves as Stanley Cup contenders who will be hard-pressed to make in-season improvements unless they can move out some salary, this is where the Flyers cap space could be leveraged to acquire assets.

The Flyers are early in their rebuild and are at least three or four years away from turning the corner. With that in mind, any contract they take on will probably fall into the one to three-year range similar to the contract they acquired with Cal Petersen. Philadelphia has several of their own undesirable contracts as well as over $5MM in dead cap space for the next few seasons in the DeAngelo buyout and the retained salary on Hayes.

Latest On Trevor Zegras, Jamie Drysdale

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Elliotte Friedman reported today on his 32 Thoughts podcast that the Anaheim Ducks and Trevor Zegras have made some small progress on a new contract between the two sides. He goes on to say that he doesn’t believe a contract is nearing completion, but he has the impression that they are taking steps in the right direction.

Zegras, a native of Bedford, New York, is coming off a season in which he posted 23 goals and 42 assists in 81 games and has posted back-to-back seasons of more than 60 points. Last year, however, his ability to drive play took a step back, and the defensive side of his game continued to leave a lot to be desired.

It appears the Ducks want to see more from the 22-year-old before offering a long-term deal, as they have agreed with Zegras on a three-year term, according to TSN’s Pierre LeBrun on Insider Trading. What that cap hit will look like remains to be seen, but there does appear to be progress based on Friedman’s reporting.

Friedman also dispelled a rumor that the Ducks were under investigation by the NHL for the handling of defenseman Jamie Drysdale’s shoulder injury last season that caused him to fall two games short of accruing a season of eligibility toward arbitration rights. Friedman poured cold water on that rumor saying that he investigated it, and it was untrue. He did, however, add that there were some questions about whether Drysdale could have been healthy enough to play those two games to get his service year, but Friedman believes that there is no ongoing investigation into the matter. Furthermore, Friedman says that he doesn’t feel as though anyone is accusing the Ducks of doing anything underhanded, but the question is about whether Drysdale could have played the two games he needed.

Friedman then said that because Drysdale is two years away from being arbitration-eligible, the Ducks hold the leverage in this contract negotiation, and they are using it. Drysdale has very few rights other than to hold out for a new contract, and the Ducks have been using every tool available to them to make the most team-friendly deal that they can.

The 20-year-old Drysdale was held pointless last season, dressing in just eight games for the team. The season prior, when he was healthy, Drysdale had a breakout campaign with four goals and 28 assists in 81 games.

Arbitration Breakdown: Jeremy Swayman

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Today, The Boston Bruins and goaltender Jeremy Swayman filed their arbitration numbers, and according to Sportnet’s Elliotte Friedman, Boston has filed at $2MM for one year, while Swayman has asked for $4.8MM. The 24-year-old netminder and the Bruins have until Sunday to work out a deal before they will go to arbitration.

Swayman’s number is sure to shock some people, but that is typically how this process works. The team files a lowball number, and the player files high. The arbitrator’s decision typically falls somewhere in the middle, as was the case with the Toronto Maple Leafs and netminder Ilya Samsonov.

Swayman is coming off the best season of his career and does have considerable leverage in these negotiations. The Anchorage, Alaska native posted a 24-6-4 record this past year with a .920 save percentage and a 2.27 goals-against average. His save percentage was good enough for fourth in the league trailing only Filip Gustavsson, Ilya Sorokin, and Swayman’s partner Linus Ullmark. Speaking of Ullmark, his presence complicates the situation with Swayman because he is coming off a career year as well, one in which he won the Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goaltender. Ullmark also has two years left on his contract and is unlikely to be moved this late in the summer.

The Bruins do have a bit of cap space to sign Swayman, however, they will want to keep the cap hit as low as possible since they have other pressing needs throughout their lineup from free agency departures and the retirement of Patrice Bergeron. The Bruins have a hair under $5.5MM in cap space and could be presented with some major challenges if the arbitrator rules a salary that is close to Swayman’s filing.

For Swayman, he will be looking to cash in on what has been a terrific career thus far. He just completed the three-year-contract entry-level contract that paid him $925K this past season, and while his filing is on the high side, he will likely triple or quadruple his salary this upcoming season.

A lot of teams will take a player to arbitration in the hopes of laying the groundwork for future salary cap management. However, in this case, Boston is just trying to stay cap compliant and keep as much of their team intact as they can.

Filings

Team: $2MM (one-year)
Player: $4.8MM (one-year)
Midpoint: $3.4MM

(via Friedman)

The Numbers

As mentioned above, 2022-23 saw Swayman have a career year, and while he was phenomenal when he did play, his sample size is still quite small. Swayman has never played in more than 41 games and hasn’t had to carry the workload in Boston since he’s always had the benefit of playing behind a bonafide number-one goaltender. There is a good argument to be made that it isn’t any fault of Swayman’s, and he can only play the games he plays. However, he is asking for starting goaltender money, and up to this point, he hasn’t been a starter. You can look to other teams like the Pittsburgh Penguins, who had star backups in Matt Murray and Tristan Jarry, but both of those netminders struggled with injuries and inconsistency once they were appointed as starters.

For Swayman, this season wasn’t all that far off from last season. His save percentage was slightly better, and he lost fewer games. However, he also played behind a far superior team than he did in previous seasons. That is also something that critics will point to, Swayman plays behind one of the best teams in the league, and again, that isn’t his fault. But it could be a knock the Bruins use in the ugly process that is arbitration.

From Swayman’s perspective, despite being mostly a backup, he can point to the fact that he’s taken over the net in consecutive postseasons from Ullmark. While that isn’t proof of anything, it does give his arbitration case credibility and showcase that the Bruins view the youngster as an NHL starter.

Swayman is also not a one-year wonder and can point to a few seasons of sustained success at the NHL level. Since he made his NHL debut in 2020-21, he has posted an impressive nine shutouts in 82 starts and is second in the NHL in goals-against average with a 2.40, and he also ranks fifth in save percentage with a .920 career save percentage. Some people might point to those numbers and say Swayman is the benefactor or a good team in front of him, and that is fair. However, if you take a deep dive into his numbers, you will find that over the course of his career, he has posted a ridiculous 33.8 goals saved above expected.

It will be interesting to see how the Bruins value Swayman. Do they see him as a long-term starting netminder, or is their view that he is a strong backup? You have to wonder if the Bruins had more cap space this summer if they wouldn’t try and lock him into a long-term deal at a reasonable cap hit. But that isn’t the world Boston is living in, and unfortunately for them, they are up against the cap and up against a player who has been terrific for them for quite some time.

This is a tough case to pin down due to the volatility of the goaltending position. However, given that the Maple Leafs and Samsonov just went through this process, it seems likely that the arbitrator will rule somewhere close to the middle of the two sides’ filings.

2022-23 Stats: 37GP 24W 6L 4T/O .920SV% 2.27GAA 4SO

Career Stats: 88GP 54W 23L 7T/0 .920SV% 2.24GAA 9SO

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of this negotiation. 

Ilya Samsonov (Maple Leafs) – Samsonov was just awarded a one-year deal for $3.55MM and is the obvious comparison for Swayman. However, it may serve as a “low-end” comparable for what his awarded contract could look like. Swayman is two years younger than Samsonov, and although he has a shorter track record, Swayman’s career numbers are vastly superior. However, if you look at just this past season in a vacuum, their numbers are quite similar. They sport an almost identical save percentage with a .01 difference, Swayman’s goals-against was .06 percent better and Samsonov dressed in five more games. A key point is the perception of the two goaltenders at the end of the year is different, despite coming to similar finales. Samsonov is widely viewed as Toronto’s starter heading into next year, while Swayman is firmly viewed as the Bruins’ backup. This perception could be a difference-maker in the eyes of an arbitrator. But, if they look strictly at the numbers, one will think that Swayman could be staring down a higher salary next year.

Tristan Jarry (Pittsburgh Penguins) – This comparison is a bit older, but it still applies to Swayman’s situation, given the flat-cap world we are living in. Jarry signed a three-year, $3.5MM AAV pact with the Penguins after his 2020-21 season, a year where he went 20-12-1 while posting a .921 save percentage and a 2.43 goals-against average while being named to the all-star game. Unlike Swayman, Jarry ended that campaign firmly viewed as the Penguins goaltender of the future after Matt Murray faltered in the playoffs once again. Pittsburgh knew that Jarry was their goaltender of the future and locked him up to a bridge deal. To that point in his career, Jarry had played just 62 games and had gone 34-20-4. Despite the lack of playing time, the then 26-year-old was viewed as a bonafide starter, something that Swayman might have to wait to be labeled.

Projection

Swayman has been terrific thus far in his career, however, his numbers are not strong enough to justify his $4.8MM AAV ask. However, he’s aiming high, and he has an excellent case to top Samsonov’s $3.55MM contract and Jarry’s $3.5AAV from 2020. I would have to guess that Swayman will be awarded something in the $3.55MM – $3.75MM range.

If Swayman can post numbers similar to what he has done thus far in his career, one would have to think that Boston will push to trade Ullmark next season and finally anoint Swayman as their number-one goalie. Swayman has probably earned a bridge deal at this point but given that he plays on a team as good as the Bruins, there is only so much money to go around. He will have to wait to get his security, but for now, he should get a nice pay bump next season.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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