Elias Pettersson

It’s no secret that Vancouver Canucks superstar center Elias Pettersson is heading into 2023-24 without a contract extension, hurdling toward restricted free agency next summer. The 24-year-old Swede spoke to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman yesterday from Stockholm, saying he’s more concerned about his on-ice performance next season than spending energy working out an extension.

I’m not in a rush to sign. I mean, I’ve got one more year left over there and I don’t want to rush into anything because I still don’t know myself if it’s going to be a short-term [deal] or long-term [deal], but it’s probably going to be my biggest contract so far so I don’t want to stress anything. 

Pettersson’s agent, Pat Brisson, further confirmed to Sportsnet’s Iain MacIntyre that he would not negotiate an extension with the Canucks until the end of the 2023-24 season:

The main focus will be for him to perform. It’s more that than anything else. Both sides can evaluate. Let’s sit down at the end of the year and explore where we’re at.

Coming off a 102-point season, Pettersson’s stock has never been higher. He’s seen his development take a rather linear rise since missing a solid chunk of 2020-21 with an upper-body injury, and a long-term deal seems like a much safer bet at this point in time than the last time Pettersson’s contract was up. He’s entering the final season of a three-year, $22.05MM bridge deal signed by former GM Jim Benning in 2021. Vancouver would assumedly like to get Pettersson locked in for the long haul as the salary cap rises, but it’s unclear whether he feels the same way.

After back-to-back 30-goal seasons and armed with a qualifying offer of $8.82MM, he’ll be looking for north of that number in negotiations, whether short-term or long-term. One outcome Vancouver will look to avoid at all costs is a two-year extension, which would use up his remaining RFA years and walk him directly to unrestricted free agency in 2026.

Canucks GM Patrik Allvin has been at his post for just over a year and a half, during which time he’s only signed one long-term contract: a seven-year, $56MM extension for J.T. Miller which kicks in this season. The richest deal he’s signed a restricted free agent to was winger Brock Boeser’s bridge deal, which came in at three years and $19.95MM. This is an entirely different and new situation for Allvin to navigate with Pettersson.

Another thing that may complicate contract comparables is Pettersson’s age. Most recent big-money, long-term deals for RFA centers either occurred immediately after their entry-level contract expired (Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Auston Matthews, etc.) or, more recently, at the end of their RFA eligibility with names like Mathew Barzal and Brayden Point. Pettersson falls between those two landmarks, potentially yielding a more favorable framework for a shorter-term deal.

Since breaking into the NHL with his Calder Trophy-winning season in 2018-19, Pettersson has accumulated 136 goals, 187 assists and 323 points in 325 games. He’s posted strong Corsi figures at even strength in each of his five NHL seasons and checked in at seventh in Selke Trophy voting last season after posting a +16 rating on a team that finished the season with a -22 goal differential. Everything points to Pettersson as an all-around top-flight center for years to come.

A rocky start to next season and extension talks remaining quiet could immediately plunge Pettersson’s future in British Columbia into doubt. Doing so now would be speculative – there’s been no information to suggest the two sides are far apart in negotiations or are otherwise developing animosity. Yet the fact that Pettersson is willing to let the season play out without expressively desiring a long-term commitment does put some pressure on the organization to perform this season. The Canucks have made the playoffs just twice in the past decade.

Salary cap considerations could also be a mitigating factor in a Pettersson extension, depending on what (if any) moves are made before talks begin. CapFriendly projects the team with $32.4MM in space for 2024-25, but that is considering a roster of just 11 players.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

After the Vancouver Canucks wrapped up a busy offseason of UFA signings mostly focused on fortifying their defense, everyone is now watching Elias Pettersson’s contract situation as the 2023-24 season approaches. The star center is heading into the final year of his three-year bridge contract, carrying a $7.35MM million cap hit, signed in 2021. While the Canucks will still retain his rights next summer as a restricted free agent if an extension isn’t reached soon, Pettersson’s potential eligibility for unrestricted free agency in 2025 if he only signs a one-year extension has given him tremendous leverage in upcoming negotiations. His agent, J.P. Barry, said early last month he doesn’t anticipate beginning those extension talks with Vancouver until the end of this summer.

Today, The Athletic’s Harman Dayal polled a number of NHL agents on what potential scenarios could arise in Pettersson extension talks. Obviously, the biggest question facing Pettersson’s camp is whether he should sign an extension immediately this summer or take a wait-and-see approach into the season. Waiting would offer him more clarity on the Canucks’ future and potentially enhance his earning power if he continues his upward climb. If the team can finally perform well after a long stretch of mediocrity, Pettersson may feel more comfortable committing long-term.

One anonymous agent suggested a wait-and-see approach could be sensible but said not to discount the mental challenges that a contract year can place on a player and, in turn, affect their performance. If Pettersson and his camp feel the outside noise of extension talks during the season would be too much of a distraction, signing now would almost definitely be a better choice to avoid lowering his value after a 102-point year last season. It’s likely something Pettersson will heavily consider after going through the contract-related pressure Pettersson faced in the final year of his entry-level contract in 2020-21, Dayal says.

Another factor affecting the timing of negotiations is whether Pettersson’s camp wants to wait for Auston Matthews’ extension, as it could introduce a new comparable, another agent said. Pettersson’s value may have been tampered slightly by a recent comparable – Carolina Hurricanes center Sebastian Aho, who signed an eight-year extension last month carrying a $9.75MM cap hit. If Matthews’ extension in Toronto comes in north of $12MM, it could strengthen Pettersson’s case for an eight-figure cap hit on a long-term deal.

While eight-year deals are the norm for players with high cap hits, an agent Dayal spoke to said shorter contracts have become more attractive due to the expected rise in the salary cap. Signing a shorter contract could allow Pettersson to capitalize on a higher salary cap when he re-enters the market in his late 20s.

Of note, former Vancouver Canucks assistant general manager Chris Gear predicted a cap hit between $9.5MM and $10.25MM on Pettersson’s next deal last month.