Expansion Primer: Detroit Red Wings
Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.
The last time we gathered here to determine the Detroit Red Wings’ expansion draft considerations, the team was in a steep downward decline. Yet they still ended up losing a bit of a diamond in the rough, as the Vegas Golden Knights selected forward Tomas Nosek. Nosek’s been a contributor in a bottom-six role every season in Vegas’ history, robbing Detroit of some quality depth. Now, with Detroit having hit the rock-bottom of their rebuild, their expansion situation looks fairly clear-cut this time around. With a lot of young talent exempt (and no Jimmy Howard/Petr Mrazek goalie controversy), the Red Wings and general manager Steve Yzerman are in a good position coming into 2021’s Seattle expansion draft.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards:
Riley Barber, Tyler Bertuzzi, Adam Erne, Robby Fabbri, Dylan Larkin, Frans Nielsen, Richard Panik, Vladislav Namestnikov, Michael Rasmussen, Givani Smith, Evgeny Svechnikov, Hayden Verbeek, Jakub Vrana
Defense:
Dennis Cholowski, Danny DeKeyser, Christian Djoos, Filip Hronek, Gustav Lindstrom, Troy Stecher
Goalies:
Kaden Fulcher, Thomas Greiss
Notable Unrestricted Free Agents
F Valtteri Filppula, F Sam Gagner, F Luke Glendening, F Darren Helm, F Bobby Ryan, D Alex Biega, D Marc Staal, G Jonathan Bernier
Notable Exemptions
F Joseph Veleno, F Filip Zadina, D Jared McIsaac, D Moritz Seider, G Filip Larsson
Key Decisions
The key decisions start with Detroit’s young forward group. They’ll undoubtedly be going with the seven forwards/three defensemen protection scheme. Four of those forward spots are relatively clear-cut, with Larkin, Bertuzzi, Fabbri, and recent acquisition Vrana being protection locks. That leaves three spots remaining, but with a mix of four veterans and young forwards competing for them.
The veteran of those candidates is Namestnikov. Signed to a two-year, $4MM deal prior to 2020-21 to provide some veteran presence during their rebuild, Namestnikov had his worst offensive season to date with just 17 points in 53 games. His defensive metrics were mediocre, which is on-brand for the versatile Russian forward. Detroit was Namestnikov’s fourth team since the beginning of 2019-20, and if left unprotected, Seattle could be his fifth.
However, there’s a trio of three younger forwards who could also vie for those spots. Erne, Rasmussen, and Svechnikov all looked good with the Wings this season. It was an especially important season for Svechnikov, who’s struggled with frequent injuries. He rebounded this year for eight points in 21 games while posting incredibly impressive possession metrics. Erne had a nice rebound season after a ghastly 2019-20 performance, scoring 11 goals and 20 points in 45 games. While his 15.5% shooting rate doesn’t scream sustainability, the 26-year-old showed nice flashes this season. There’s also Rasmussen, who’s still a developing project despite already playing in over 100 NHL contests. Drafted ninth overall in 2017, Rasmussen’s now totalled 30 points in 102 NHL games, including 12 points in 40 games last season. He’s consistently posted decent possession results, suggesting that the goal-scoring touch he had in juniors could be coming.
Detroit faces a similar quandary on defense with three names fighting for two spots. Hronek’s protection is a foregone conclusion, but Stecher, Cholowski, and Lindstrom are names that could fall into those last two spots.
Stecher sits as effectively a more impressive Namestnikov. Joining Detroit as a free agent prior to this season, Stecher settled nicely into a top-four role, posting admirable defensive metrics considering the hacked-together situation that was Detroit’s defense. However, like Namestnikov, he’s under contract for just one more season and there’s no guarantee that he stays. There’s also a pair of younger defenders in Cholowski and Lindstrom. Cholowski was a first-round pick in 2016 and showed great potential in his 2018-19 rookie season, but has stagnated at all levels since then. Detroit is willing to play the wait-and-see game with the young defender, who may see a full-time role again next year after just 16 games played in 2020-21. Lindstrom’s a year younger and doesn’t have as much upside, but he’s cobbled together four assists in 29 NHL games and could have third-pairing potential.
Projected Protection List
F Tyler Bertuzzi
F Adam Erne
F Robby Fabbri
F Dylan Larkin
F Michael Rasmussen
F Evgeny Svechnikov
F Jakub Vrana
D Dennis Cholowski
D Filip Hronek
D Troy Stecher
Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist
When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined. Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined. In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.
Forwards (3): Vladislav Namestnikov, Frans Nielsen, Richard Panik
Defensemen (1): Danny DeKeyser
There are very few pickings here that the Kraken would be interested in, and Detroit is likely to emerge from the expansion draft unscathed. While Detroit will have some depth forwards exposed, Seattle can likely find cheaper and better options elsewhere. Seattle could end up taking an AHL skater with limited upside like Lindstrom or Smith, or take a pending UFA like Glendening if they really don’t like any of their options.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Poll: How Should The Seattle Kraken Approach The No. 2 Overall Pick?
The Seattle Kraken will be much more than just an idea with one undrafted junior player on their roster by the time the 2021 NHL Entry Draft rolls around. The club will have added at least 30 players to their arsenal by way of the Expansion Draft several days earlier. Seattle is not expected to have the same advantage in making side deals like the Vegas Golden Knights did in 2017, as the other 30 teams have learned their lesson. However, one major advantage they will have compared to Vegas is in the Entry Draft. Picking No. 2 overall after moving up in the draft lottery, the Kraken will pick four spots higher than the Knights, who slid to No. 6 overall in their lottery. While Vegas’ first ever draft pick, Cody Glass, is still fighting for regular play time on the NHL roster four years later, Seattle has a chance to add a player who can contribute right away in their inaugural season – one way or another.
The results of the Expansion Draft are unlikely to change the Kraken’s draft plans. They will have several days between the submission of Expansion Draft protection lists and the draft itself and to map out their plan of attack and to talk trade with the rest of the league. Sure, they could find that there are some unexpected trade options that could allow them to add other picks and prospects ahead of the draft, but unlikely anything that will change their opinion on how best to use the No. 2 pick. Only the Buffalo Sabres at first overall could potentially throw Seattle a curveball. Otherwise, their plan should be set well ahead of July 23.
So what should Seattle do with the second overall pick? It is a critical pick that will undoubtedly impact the new franchise for years to come. What is the best approach?
Take The Best Available Player – Pretty straightforward, right? The Kraken should take the best player remaining on their board after Buffalo makes their selection. Regardless of the positional value or any perceived positional needs following the Expansion Draft, Seattle should simply take the prospect that they feel has the highest ceiling and most realistic pro ambitions. While there is no consensus top prospect in this draft, many feel that University of Michigan defenseman Owen Power is that top prospect. If the Kraken agree and Buffalo goes elsewhere at No. 1, they pull the trigger.
Take The Best Available Center – Center is the position that many point to as the most important in the NHL and feel that a true No. 1 center is the hardest player to find. At No. 2 overall and Power potentially going first to Buffalo, Seattle could conceivably have their pick of every forward in the draft class to find that future top center. That could very well be Power’s Wolverines teammate Matthew Beniers. Even if Beniers or another center isn’t the best player on their board, Seattle shouldn’t pass up on the opportunity to add an elite prospect down the middle.
Take The Best Available Defenseman – Some live by the team-building mantra of building from the net out. While goalie Jesper Wallstedt is an elite prospect, he isn’t going No. 2 overall. However, the Kraken could instead choose to bolster their blue line with an elite prospect. Even if Power is off the board and there are forwards ranked higher on their draft board, Seattle needs to target one of the small group of blue chip defenders in the draft class, such as Brandt Clarke or Luke Hughes.
Trade Back And Add Picks – Starting a pipeline from scratch is about quantity over quality, right? The No. 2 overall pick is nice, but if Seattle isn’t able to acquire any other top picks in Expansion Draft deals, they would be better off trading back and adding picks. The New Jersey Devils at No. 4 and Columbus Blue Jackets at No. 5, both with extra first-rounders, seem like enticing trade partners. All three of Clarke, Hughes, or Wallstedt could still be available at either of those picks.
Trade For Established Star – Seattle doesn’t want a slow build-up. They want to compete right away like Vegas, but they won’t be able to so easily dupe the rest of the league in the Expansion Draft. Perhaps they should use the No. 2 overall pick as part of a deal to pry a star from a rebuilding team. Jack Eichel? Dylan Larkin? Logan Couture? Patrik Laine or Seth Jones?
What do you think? Which direction should GM Ron Francis and company go with the franchise’s first pick and the second pick of the 2021 NHL Draft?
How Should The Seattle Kraken Approach The No. 2 Overall Pick?
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Take Best Available Player 52% (898)
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Trade For Star 20% (337)
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Trade Back 18% (304)
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Take Best Available Center 7% (125)
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Take Best Available Defenseman 3% (58)
Total votes: 1,722
Injury Updates: Penguins, Dube, Larkin, Slavin
The Penguins could get center Evgeni Malkin back for one of the next two games in their first-round series against the Islanders but the same can’t be said for goaltender Casey DeSmith. Chris Adamski of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports that Malkin accompanied the team to New York while DeSmith did not. Malkin is believed to be dealing with a recurrence of the knee trouble that caused him to miss most of the second half of the season while DeSmith has missed the last two-plus weeks due to an undisclosed injury. Game three of that series goes on Thursday.
Other injury news from around the NHL:
- Flames winger Dillon Dube is in concussion protocol after being injured in today’s regular season finale against Vancouver, relays Postmedia’s Wes Gilbertson (Twitter link). The 22-year-old is supposed to join Team Canada for the upcoming World Championships but unless he is cleared quickly, he may no longer be able to participate.
- Red Wings center Dylan Larkin won’t need surgery due to the neck injury he suffered late in the season, mentions Ted Kulfan of The Detroit News. He expects to be able to resume training in a month and should be ready to go for 2021-22 where he’ll hope to rebound from a quiet campaign that saw him pick up just 23 points in 44 games.
- Hurricanes defenseman Jaccob Slavin was out of the lineup for tonight’s second game against Nashville. As Michael Smith of Carolina’s team website notes (Twitter link), the blueliner will be a game-time decision for a while with Slavin ultimately making the decision on when he’ll be able to suit up. He suffered a lower-body injury in their final regular season game and clearly, he has not quite recovered from it just yet.
2021 King Clancy Trophy Nominees Announced
The NHL has announced the 31 nominees for the King Clancy Memorial Trophy, annually presented to “the player who best exemplifies leadership qualities on and off the ice and has made a noteworthy humanitarian contribution in his community.” Last year’s winner was Matt Dumba of the Minnesota Wild.
Each team submits one nominee. This year’s are:
Anaheim: Cam Fowler
Arizona: Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Boston: Charlie Coyle
Buffalo: Jack Eichel
Calgary: Mikael Backlund
Carolina: Jordan Staal
Chicago: Connor Murphy
Colorado: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare
Columbus: Cam Atkinson
Dallas: Esa Lindell
Detroit: Dylan Larkin
Edmonton: Kyle Turris
Florida: Sergei Bobrovsky
Los Angeles: Trevor Moore
Minnesota: Mats Zuccarello
Montreal: Jonathan Drouin
Nashville: Pekka Rinne
New Jersey: P.K. Subban
NY Islanders: Anders Lee
NY Rangers: Chris Kreider
Ottawa: Thomas Chabot
Philadelphia: Scott Laughton
Pittsburgh: Sidney Crosby
San Jose: Kurtis Gabriel
St. Louis: Ryan O’Reilly
Tampa Bay: Alex Killorn
Toronto: John Tavares
Vancouver: Tyler Motte
Vegas: Marc-Andre Fleury
Washington: Garnet Hathaway
Winnipeg: Blake Wheeler
Dylan Larkin To Miss Rest Of Season
The Detroit Red Wings have announced that captain Dylan Larkin will miss the remainder of the season with an upper-body injury. Larkin missed last night’s game and will be re-evaluated in two weeks.
Larkin, 24, will end his season without even reaching ten goals, a disappointing output even if the year didn’t really mean anything in the long-term. Detroit is just at the beginning of a full rebuild and had no plans on reaching the postseason. Still, we’re now two years removed from the outstanding 32-goal, 73-point breakout for Larkin and everyone is waiting for him to reach those heights again.
While this injury doesn’t sound like it will affect his training for 2021-22, there’s not a lot left to play for this season. The Red Wings can give his minutes to younger players–including Joe Veleno, who could make his NHL debut in the coming days–while Larkin resets and gets ready for a year where Detroit could actually be pushing for a playoff spot.
After the Red Wings traded away Anthony Mantha, it’s interesting to watch what happens with the rest of their previous core, Larkin included. The 24-year-old has just two years remaining on his current contract before unrestricted free agency, but is also the captain and most consistent offensive player. GM Steve Yzerman has set up the Detroit cap situation with not a single player signed beyond the 2022-23 campaign, meaning if you don’t perform, he can go in a different direction.
Central Notes: Seabrook, Red Wings, Radulov, Gardiner
Brent Seabrook‘s announcement that he doesn’t intend to return to professional hockey has other implications as well, particularly the upcoming expansion draft. Up until now, the team had Seabrook inked in as a player the team had to protect due to his no-movement clause. Now, with Seabrook being moved to LTIR and effectively retiring allows the Chicago Blackhawks some much-needed flexibility, according to the Chicago Tribune’s Jimmy Greenfield.
The team no longer needs to protect Seabrook from the Seattle Kraken and expansion draft, which will allow them to retain an extra defenseman they weren’t originally expecting to be able to keep. Assuming the team goes with the 7-3-1 format, the team can now protect Duncan Keith and Connor Murphy like they had originally planned. However, now the team has the option of protecting Nikita Zadorov or Calvin de Haan, with Zadorov being the more likely of the two to be protected. de Haan and his $4.55 AAV are more likely to be traded at the trade deadline or exposed to Seattle.
- The Detroit Red Wings continue to be without top-line winger Tyler Bertuzzi, who has been out since Jan. 30th with an upper-body injury. Head coach Jeff Blashill said that the forward still isn’t able to practice, according to the Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James. The news is a little more promising for Dylan Larkin, who has missed four games with an upper-body injury. MLive’s Ansar Khan reports that Larkin could be ready to go on Tuesday, but Blashill said much of that determination will be based on practice Sunday and Monday. For now, he’s considered day-to-day.
- Despite taking the ice Saturday in Dallas’ morning skate, forward Alexander Radulov is not expected to return to the team for another week, according to Dallas Morning News’ Matthew DeFranks. Radulov has been out with a lower-body injury and has not played since Feb. 4. Radulov has appeared in only eight games for the Stars this season, but does have an impressive three goals and 11 points.
- NHL.com’s Michael Smith reports that Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Jake Gardiner is ready to return to the lineup Sunday. The 30-year-old has been out since Feb. 24 and has missed five games with an upper-body injury. Gardiner has seven assists in 16 games this season and could return to his role on the power-play as well.
Injury Notes: Blues, Kuznetsov, Larkin
As the St. Louis Blues embark on a six-game road trip, they are leaving many of their top players behind. While Vladimir Tarasenko appears ready to be activated from the Long-Term Injured Reserve, many other Blues are not as lucky. Alex Steen and Carl Gunnarsson are out for the year, placed on LTIR, while Tyler Bozak, Ivan Barbashev, and Robert Thomas all remain sidelined on standard IR, and you can now add two more to the lengthy list of absences, as Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Colton Parayko and Jaden Schwartz also did not travel with the team. Due to the length of the trip, this implies that both are currently dealing with substantial injuries and will not be recovered within the next two weeks. This aligns with a recent report from The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford that suggest Parayko had been playing through a back injury but simply could not keep going, especially as his performance suffered. Surgery is a potential option for Parayko, but for now he is being given substantial rest and rehab in hopes that it can be avoided. Schwartz remains more unknown, only termed day-to-day thus far, but clearly his injury is more of the “week-to-week” variety. The Blues will have to hope for the best from their top options and trust their depth, as a long bout of the injury bug can be especially debilitating in a shortened season.
- In some surprising news from earlier, Evgeny Kuznetsov was ruled out for the Washington Capitals’ Saturday matinee match-up. Kuznetsov has been diagnosed with an undisclosed upper-body injury and is considered day-to-day, but it is unknown when and how the injury occurred. According to The Athletic’s Tarik El-Bashir, Kuznetsov was a full participant in practice on Friday, even getting in some early solo work. There is no word on if he will be available to the Capitals tomorrow for their re-match with the New Jersey Devils.
- The Detroit Red Wings will be without their captain and leading scorer this weekend, the team announced. Dylan Larkin has been ruled out for Saturday and Sunday meetings with the rival Chicago Blackhawks and is considered day-to-day with an undisclosed injury. With Tyler Bertuzzi still sidelined as well, the league’s second-lowest scoring teams loses another major name from its short list of weapons.
NHL Pulls Current Batch of “Tracking” Pucks
The NHL and its coaches and players are unhappy with one of its newest innovations. Microchipped “tracking” pucks, first introduced in the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs, were intended to bring the league into a new age of technological analysis. However, the current batch of pucks is different than those used seamlessly in the postseason – and people can tell.
NBC Sports reports that a number of players and coaches have complained to the league about the new pucks, which were finished differently than the playoff batch. This included Philadelphia Flyers head coach Alain Vigneault, who claimed the pucks “didn’t slide as well”, and Detroit Red Wings captain Dylan Larkin, who commented the pucks were “bouncing everywhere.” As a result, the NHL has announced that the pucks have been pulled from gameplay, beginning with Tuesday night’s contests. Pucks from last season will be used for the time being.
Fortunately, the league does expect that new tracking pucks will be ready for action soon. The new batch will also undergo testing before being rolled out. Puck tracking information has long been desired in the NHL and they will work hard to make sure they can get that data back as soon as possible.
Dylan Larkin Named Captain Of Detroit Red Wings
It comes with plenty of hype and little surprise; Dylan Larkin is the next captain of the Detroit Red Wings. The team announced the selection today on the eve of their season opener against the Carolina Hurricanes. Larkin will be the 37th captain in franchise history, succeeding Henrik Zetterberg who was last to wear the “C.”
From the moment he burst onto the scene in 2015 with his blazing speed and scoring touch, Larkin was destined to take over this role. In the 2015-16 season he scored 23 goals, leading the entire Red Wings team even as a rookie, and trailing only Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk in points. It was as obvious then as it is now that Larkin would be the next face of the franchise, following in some heavy footsteps.
Now heading into his sixth NHL season, the 24-year-old becomes captain after scoring 266 points in 389 career games. He hasn’t been able to lead the Red Wings back to the playoffs but will be an anchor in the middle of the rebuild as GM Steve Yzerman starts to fill the roster up with talented youngsters. He has three years left on his current contract, one of just two players signed through the 2022-23 season and his next task will be to help the Red Wings become competitive again.
Given the high draft picks that Detroit has used the last few seasons, picking star prospects like Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond, there’s a chance that Larkin isn’t the most talented player on the roster by the end of this contract. But there’s also a chance he gets back to the 32-goal, 73-point performance he had in 2018-19 and puts himself among the league’s all-stars once again.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
What Your Team Is Thankful For: Detroit Red Wings
As the holiday season approaches, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for as the season heads past the one-quarter mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Detroit Red Wings.
What are the Red Wings most thankful for?
Very little has gone right for Detroit this season as the team finds itself dead last in the league, four points out of 30th place and nine points out of 29th place, suggesting the team is likely to land another significant lottery in June. And while none of that is worthy of being thankful for, Detroit’s general manager Steve Yzerman, is eager to complete the team’s rebuild and likely has no qualms about seeing this franchise at the bottom in hopes of completely rebuilding the franchise up. It has plenty of complementary pieces and several players who could be stars, but a picking up a franchise player in a stacked draft might be the most valuable piece to this franchise.
Who are the Red Wings most thankful for?
Mantha missed eight games with a knee injury, returning today, but continues to be the team’s leading scorer with 12 goals and 23 points this season, which puts him on pace for almost a goal per game. After posting 48 points for the past two seasons, Mantha looks ready for a potential breakout season if he can remain healthy. He is third on the team among forwards in TOI, averaging 18:54 and looks to have taken his game to another level this year.
Considering that Dylan Larkin has seen a slight decline in his play so far, the team should be thankful that Mantha continues to improve season after season.
What would the Red Wings be even more thankful for?
Defense.
Detroit has struggled defensively this season with injuries as the team has been without several of their veteran blueliners for chunks of the season already. Other than Filip Hronek, the defense has looked to be in serious trouble. Danny DeKeyser has missed all but eight games so far this season. Trevor Daley has missed 20 games, Mike Green has missed eight games and isn’t the same player he once was, while Jonathan Ericsson has been waived and used just eight times this season. Even Dennis Cholowski has failed to live up to expectations this year and has been sent to the AHL as well.
The team needs the defense to get healthy and more importantly, they need some of their young blueliners to take that next step and provide some defense to give the team a chance.
What should be on the Red Wings’ Holiday Wish List?
Goaltending.
The teams goaltending has hit some hard times. The star of the team is Jonathan Bernier, who is boasting a 3.34 GAA and a .890 save percentage in 20 appearances. And yes, that’s the best of the bunch. 35-year-old Jimmy Howard, who is currently out with a strained groin, is struggling even worse with a 3.94 GAA and a .887 save percentage in just eight appearances. The team did add Eric Comrie to the team in a trade with Arizona. However, so far there hasn’t been any indication that he’s the answer in two appearances, although it’s still early.
Unfortunately, the team may not find the answer during the holidays. They may be more likely to fix that problem by making a big splash in the free agent market this summer when some interesting names might be available, including Washington’s Braden Holtby, Jacob Markstrom, Robin Lehner amongst others.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.