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“Completely Disappointed” Blackhawks Clean Out Lockers

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Hands up if you predicted the Chicago Blackhawks would be involved in a sweep during the post-season. Now, keep your hand up if you thought it would be them getting swept.

The Blackhawks cleaned out their lockers on Saturday morning after a disappointing end to a promising season. After a 109-point season, the first-seed Blackhawks scored just three goals in four games against the eighth-seed Nashville Predators.

Usually when teams are eliminated, we find out the injuries that key players were dealing with; famously, Patrice Bergeron played in the 2013 Stanley Cup Finals (vs the Blackhawks) with a separated shoulder, cartilage tear in his ribs, and a punctured lung. However, there have been no notable injuries revealed today. Per Chris Hine of the Chicago Tribune, coach Joel Quenneville said that a few “key guys” were dealing with minor injuries, including Artem Anisimov, who was battling limited mobility. At this point, no players will require off-season surgery, according to Mark Lazerus of the Sun-Times.

General Manager Stan Bowman called the early end to his club’s season a “complete failure” compared to their expectations. The sweep “completely overshadowed” the 50-win season; Bowman promised changes would be coming, but did say that Quenneville will be back as head coach, according to Lazerus. However, Hine reports that Quenneville doesn’t foresee any changes to his coaching staff. Bowman promised that he and Quenneville “are going to work together to make sure this never happens again.”

Roster-wise, the Blackhawks have a few notable players up for new contracts: Richard Panik, Michal Kempny, and Scott Darling are all pending free agents. Bowman refused to comment on their statuses while also not commenting on the possibility of any roster moves involving “core” players. Realistically, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin, Duncan Keith, and Brent Seabrook are all un-tradable, either due to their importance to the club or the size of their contracts, or both. The one interesting name could be Corey Crawford; while the sweep is not his fault (the Blackhawks scored just three goals in four games), Bowman played coy when asked whether Crawford would be the starting goaltender next season. Per Hine, Bowman replied, “I’m not going to speculate on anything—who’s going to be here, who’s not going to be here.”

With the expansion draft upcoming and a few teams looking to move goaltenders, it could be difficult to find a taker for Crawford’s $6MM salary, especially at the likely asking price in a trade. Making that move would clear some significant cap space and allow them to keep Darling, who appears to be ready to take on a starting job. It would be the blockbuster of the summer. But as Bowman told Scott Powers of The Athletic, “We didn’t score any goals. It’s hard to win games when you get shutout.”

No matter what happens, it will be a long summer for a team that was expecting a long spring.

Cap Problems Loom – A Look Ahead For Chicago

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The Chicago Blackhawks’ management will have to take a deep, long look in the mirror this off-season. Their core is locked up and in their primes. With an offense boasting Artemi Panarin, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, grizzled Marian Hossa, and a resurgent Artem Anisimov, there were many predictions around the league for Chicago to reclaim another cup. Instead, the comparatively deep lineup Nashville iced completely dominated Chicago, sending them packing in a 4 game sweep – the first ever time an “8th seed” has swept a “1 seed”.

This is an analysis of Chicago’s cap frustrations, and what has led to them.

Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane each account for $10.5 MM towards the team cap, and are both under contract until the 2022-23 season. With a cap ceiling that is expected to remain in the ballpark of its current $73 MM, this is a massive $21 MM, 28.8% of the team total. In past seasons, contributions from players on ELCs and cheap one-to-two year deals made this issue far less concerning. Success will do a lot to mask poor planning on management’s part.

Looking at their roster situation next year, the squad looks something like this (numbers represent $MM towards cap):

Nick Schmaltz (0.925) – Jonathan Toews (10.5) – Marian Hossa (5.275)

Artemi Panarin (6.0) – Artem Anisimov (4.550) – Patrick Kane (10.5)

Dennis Rasmussen (RFA) – Marcus Kruger (3.083) – Richard Panik (RFA)

Ryan Hartman (0.863) – Tanner Kero (0.750) – __________

*******

 

Nik Hjalmarsson (4.1) – Duncan Keith (5.538)

Brent Seabrook (6.875) – Trevor van Riemsdyk (0.825)

Michal Kempny (RFA) – Gustav Forsling (0.873)

************

Michal Roszival (0.650)

 

Corey Crawford (6.0)

_________

 

A few things to note: there are still 4 likely vacancies on this roster, and the team would probably prefer to have at least one more extra skater on hand for the season. Before the RFA contracts are negotiated, this comes to a total of $67.307 MM already spent. Brian Campbell and Johnny Oduya are not likely to return, considering the former’s price and the latter’s struggles. Roszival is not likely to be trusted with 7th defenseman duties. With Panik’s stellar season, he is nearly sure to command a sizable raise. The 26 year-old had what can only be described an incredibly over-achieving breakthrough – he notched 44 points, 22 of which were goals. The expectation should be that, even under team-friendly RFA negotiations, he will earn upwards of $2 MM, likely in the $2.5 MM range. Assuming the other two RFAs (Rasmussen and Kempny) receive somewhere around $1 MM each, this brings the grand total to $71.807 MM with at least 3 slots to fill, probably 4.

From here, Chicago could go one of two routes. They could try to fill out the remaining spots with the absolutely cheapest possible players, and hope they strike gold with another prospect or free agent. They went down this road last year, and one could reasonably assume they may not have liked the results. The other option would be to move a sizable contract out in the name of increased depth. A few options would be Seabrook or Hjalmarrson on the back-end, or perhaps Hossa up front. Although the captain’s relative cost efficiency is arguably not good, I don’t see a scenario where the Windy City management would be willing to move on from Toews. Anisimov’s play and chemistry with Kane at a cheap 2C price-tag make him unlikely to be moved, and Kruger was just signed to a cost-efficient deal.

It should be noted that if Chicago would be (for whatever reason) unable to move a contract, they could opt to leave a player unprotected for Vegas to take. This is not a likely scenario, however. Many believe that van Riemsdyk will be left unprotected, but exposing such a cheap and effective youngster seems counter-productive at this point. The problem with ditching Seabrook or Hjalmarrson is that it opens up a huge hole that is not likely to be filled much cheaper – top 4 defensemen don’t come cheap, especially considering this year’s limited UFA class. Hossa, it should be noted, has a No Movement Clause, which would severely complicate any sort of transaction involving the veteran winger.

Decisions lie aheaad for Chicago management, and the decisions may be even tougher than they were after their Cup win in 2010. That off-season, they were forced into moving Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd, and Kris Versteeg. Those tough decisions laid the groundwork for their next two titles. This is the cost of success in the post-cap era, and Chicago will again need to make sacrifices if they wish to see any more.

Predator Power: The Potential Upset That Should Shock No One

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Just yesterday, I wrote an article describing the ability of the Wild to come back in their series down 0-2. No one should doubt that the Blackhawks are entirely capable of achieving the same against the Predators. The question is whether they will.

The Predators were perhaps the most overlooked team this post-season, with nearly all analysts picking the Blackhawks to take the series rather easily. This is particularly odd because offensively, the teams were practically indistinguishable (at 2.43 GF60 and 2.42 GF60 respectively). At 5 on 5, the Predators only scored 5 less goals all season long. Down the home stretch of the season, the Predators won their last 4 while the Blackhawks went winless. Although both teams have had an increase in overall offense compared to last season, Nashville had less of a drastic up-hike, suggesting less deviation from the expected output. The Predators are also far less top heavy than the Hawks – their scoring is more evenly stretched out across their lineup and not concentrated around four particular players. The Hawks’ fourth line is noteworthy in how uninspiring it is –  Jordin Tootoo and John Hayden usually average 8 and 11 minutes a piece. Finally, Pekka Rinne had a historically bad season by his standards in 2015-16 (in which the Predators took the Western Conference champs to a Game 7) – but he has returned to form in a big way this season, with a respectable (if unremarkable) .918 save percentage.

Then there’s the defense – the Blackhawks have shown signs of weakness. Duncan Keith had a solid showing, but not his Norris standard. His Corsi For was his worst since his rookie season at 50.7%  – he has trended around 54%. Niklas Hjalmarsson and Brent Seabrook have also had down seasons, Seabrook at 50%, and Hjalmarsson at 45%. After these three defenders there is a massive gap in talent. Part of the reason that these top three are having a difficult time is because they have had to log massive amounts of minutes against top players. Both Johnny Oduya and Brian Campbell have struggled to log the minutes of years past, and both have faced lower quality of competition. Each has averaged around 18 minutes of ice and it doesn’t seem like Joel Quenneville is particularly confident in putting them out there in all situations these playoffs. Trevor van Reimsdyk has performed admirably in his role, but has yet to be a positive player in a post-season year.  Even against Keith, the speed of the Predators’ forwards has created fits and frantic backpedaling. With how dominant Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi and crew have looked, it is more than fair to draw comparisons.

Ultimately, the Blackhawks need to score in order to advance. Peter Laviolette has the Predators rolling as a fine-tuned forecheck machine, and Chicago seems to have been shell-shocked. Their zone time in the most recent game was frankly horrible. The 5-0 obliteration was a natural continuation of the frustrated offense the Hawks experienced in the first game, and it seems apparent that whatever game-planning occurred between the two matches fell far short of the mark. Shots were constantly blocked by the Preds and the ones that got through were not dangerous. The amount of hype that preceded Chicago headed into these playoffs was largely unwarranted – they didn’t dominate any advanced stat and only won the division by a slight margin, while their top players looked far less dynamic than the previous year. But let us not discount the effort and depth of the Predators. On paper, this isn’t a roster that is star-studded or wonderfully exciting, but they have been constructed well for playoff hockey and now have the experience to close a series. Their third line has performed well above expectations and their top guns are firing away. Underestimating this squad would be a deadly error for any team, no matter how many cups they’ve won in years past.

Chicago Blackhawks Recall Gustav Forsling

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With the Chicago Blackhawks clinching the Western Conference but now unable to catch Washington for the President’s Trophy, they are poised to give a couple of their veteran blueliners some rest in the last two games. The team has called up Gustav Forsling from the AHL and it is expected that Duncan Keith or Brent Seabrook (or both) will be given a game off to prepare for the playoff run.

Forsling has played 36 games with the NHL club this season, his first in North America since coming over from Sweden. The 20-year old was a fifth-round pick of the Canucks in 2014 and has shown enough to deserve these minutes late in the season. Undersized but confident, Forsling is a future powerplay quarterback that can distribute the puck quickly and effectively.

For the Blackhawks, the team is preparing for a long playoff run once again with their core of veteran players. It’s still unclear who they will face in the first round, as Calgary, Nashville and St. Louis jockey for position. It’s possible that Forsling could earn a spot during the playoff run if the Blackhawks were to suffer an injury or two. It’s a long battle to make it to the Stanley Cup Final, that usually takes at least seven or eight defenders.

Central Notes: Blackhawks, Mitchell, Predators

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The Daily Herald’s John Dietz writes that the Blackhawks are aiming for a strong start following their bye week.When returning from a bye week, teams are 3-10 after playing their first game. The Hawks don’t start up again until Saturday night, but head coach Joel Quenneville thinks that while the break can cause “hiccups,” the break can be a source of good. Defenseman Duncan Keith and Patrick Kane both think the team will be fine, while Keith realizes that Edmonton has been on a roll and will give the Hawks their best, despite a 5-1 beating the Hawks handed them just a week ago.

In other Central Division news:

  • The Wild returned Zack Mitchell to the Iowa Wild after being recalled earlier in the week. Mitchell has played in 11 games this season with the Wild, but has failed to register a point with the big club. It contrasts with his performance in Iowa, where Mitchell led the team in scoring last season. This season he has 14 points (8-6).
  • The Predators are on pace to sell out all of their home games this season reports the Tennessean’s Nate Rau. This would be the first time in franchise history that the Preds would sell out, and team officials say that the Preds have been on a “hot streak” in term of sales since hosting the All-star game. Rau writes that only seven years ago, the Predators were in danger of being sold and possibly moved due to a lack of interest. But another key has been the creativity of season ticket packages. After offering two-year plans, and now three-year plans, the job done by the team on the ice and the front office have allowed for such creativity.
    Related: Deadline Primer: Nashville

NHL Names Top 100 Players Of All Time

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Last night on the NBC Sports Network, the NHL released the top 100 players of all time and the debate, which has raged long before this was released, will continue on. Hosted by actor Jon Hamm, the ceremony honored players by decade, and categorized them by goalies, defensemen, and forwards.

The first thirty-three were released on New Years Day during the Centennial Classic in Toronto. The players named in the first thirty-three were active between 1917-1966. The rest, named last night, have played from 1967 to the present day.

There were a number of story lines:

  • Jonas Siegel of the Canadian Press wrote that Mario Lemieux, Bobby Orr, and Wayne Gretzky agree that Gordie Howe is the greatest hockey player of all time. Gretzky added that while Sidney Crosby is the greatest in the game today, Connor McDavid is making the case to “chase him” as the next in line.
  • Speaking of Crosby’s generation, the selection of the more recent players to the top 100 caused quite the debate around the hockey world. The arguments boil down into a couple ways: either include more current players by subtracting players from other decades or be more selective in the current generation. The six on the current list were Jaromir Jagr, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, Crosby, and Alex Ovechkin.
  • The Score’s Sean O’Leary thinks that Evgeni Malkin, Jarome Iginla, and Joe Thornton should have “cracked” the list. O’Leary believes that Malkin is a lock for the top 100, while Iginla, though never winning a Cup, was a dominant force in the league, scoring 617 goals in his long (and still active) career.
  • Curtis Pashelka also wonders why Joe Thornton isn’t included on the list. His stats alone seem to qualify him for the top 100, but the lack of a Stanley Cup makes Pashelka think that it kept Thornton out of the illustrious club.
  • Finally, Puck Daddy’s Greg Wyshynski includes his list of snubs which name the aforementioned Iginla, Malkin, and Thornton. But Wyshysnki also lists Zdeno Chara, Ed Belfour, Dale Hawerchuk, and Pierre Pilote as players deserving of inclusion.

 

Central Division Snapshots: Blackhawks, Avalanche, Korpikoski

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The Chicago Blackhawks roster still boasts many of the key contributors who have led the team to three Stanley Cup championships since 2010. And as long as Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith and Corey Crawford are healthy, the Hawks will be on the short list of Western Conference contenders even as the front office constantly juggles the rest of the roster to augment that core while remaining compliant with the salary cap.

That doesn’t mean the Blackhawks aren’t in need of reinforcements as the March 1st trade deadline approaches, however. Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun Times argues Chicago desperately needs a top left wing in order to help pull Toews out of his season long scoring slump. For his career, Toews has averaged 0.86 points/game but so far this season he is nearly three-tenths-of-a-point behind that rate. Lazerus believes that the acquisition of a proven top-six winger would allow Vinnie Hinostroza to slot into the team’s bottom-six, further bolstering that group. In conjunction with the expected return of Marcus Kruger, the Blackhawks would be able to ice four solid and balanced lines in this scenario.

Lazerus lists Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog, who have both been frequently mentioned in trade rumors of late, as two potential options. Though given the team’s current salary cap situation – $65.7MM in commitments to just 14 players – it’s far more likely that Chicago will stick to shopping in the rental bin as opposed to adding a player with term remaining beyond this season.

James van Riemsdyk was also listed by Lazerus as a possibility though Toronto would likely hold onto the winger as long as they remain in the hunt for a playoff spot. He also has one more year remaining on his deal, representing an additional sticking point in this scenario. Jarome Iginla is undoubtedly available but at 39 and with just five goals through 41 games this season, Chicago would probably exhaust other alternatives before pivoting in this direction.

If Dallas decides to sell at the deadline, former Blackhawk Patrick Sharp could represent an interesting option, though that is just my speculation. Sharp has missed time this season on two separate occasions with concussions and has just two goals on the season but tallied 20 last year for the Stars. He’s in the final year of his contract with a cap hit of $5.9MM and given Chicago will only have roughly $3.3MM of available space at the deadline, the Stars will either have to retain salary or take back a contract to facilitate a trade.

Elsewhere in the Central Division:

  • The Colorado Avalanche, in the midst of a second straight dismal season, appear to be on the verge of a major shakeup, whether that occurs at the trade deadline or during the summer. Multiple high-profile players could be shipped elsewhere as management attempts to fix what ails the roster. The Denver Post’s Terry Frei compiled a comprehensive listing of the moves the team has made since Joe Sakic took over as the organization’s top decision-maker and the results are as you would expect given the current state of the team. Like many teams, the Avalanche have blundered when it comes to the term offered to unrestricted free agents. Among the players acquired either as a free agent or via trade and then subsequently extended were Brad Stuart, Jarome Iginla, Francois Beachemin, and Carl Soderberg. All were at least 30 when added to the Avalanche roster and only Soderberg was younger than 34. Needless to say, those deals haven’t worked out as the team had anticipated.
  • A late free agent addition that has panned out far better than expected was the Dallas Stars October signing of forward Lauri Korpikoski, as Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News writes. The Finnish forward had been bought out of the final year of his deal with Edmonton and was later released from his PTO with Calgary. In need of forward depth following the loss of Ales Hemsky and Mattias Janmark, the team inked Korpikoski to a one-year, $1M deal. While he hasn’t exactly lit up the score sheet, the nine-year veteran has contributed six goals and 15 points in 43 games. That’s solid production for a bottom-six winger and a relative bargain given the minimal investment the Stars undertook. Additionally, Stars head coach Lindy Ruff appreciates Korpikoski’s all-around game, saying: “He’s a solid contributor who is good on both sides of the puck. You’ve got a guy who is pretty diligent and plays the game the right way.” With five of his fellow forwards also set to hit unrestricted free agency this summer, it’s at least possible Dallas considers an extension with Korpikoski.

 

Western Conference Notes: Campbell, Hawks, Avalanche

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It was evident after being eliminated in the first-round of last spring’s Stanley Cup tournament that the Chicago Blackhawks needed a boost on the blue line before seriously challenging for their fourth championship since 2010. The Hawks options would of course be limited by their lack of salary cap space. Fortunately veteran blue liner Brian Campbell, who spent three seasons with the Hawks earlier in his career and was part of the 2010 Stanley Cup championship roster, was willing to sign a deeply discounted deal to return to the Windy City to provide added versatility to Chicago’s defense corps. That versatility has proven to be vital given the way head coach Joel Quenneville utilizes and and assembles his defense pairs, as Chris Hine of the Chicago Tribune writes.

As Hine notes, Campbell has filled in as both a right and left side defender and has played with everyone from veterans Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith to rookie Gustav Forsling. The biggest difference between playing with experienced blue liners and younger players, according to Campbell, is communication.

“You have to be a little more assertive (with younger defensemen),” Campbell said. “Seabrook talks a lot and he expects you to talk a lot on the ice. Some guys are a little bit quieter. Young guys coming into the league are a little intimidated, but you need them to help you out as much as you’re hopefully helping them out.”

Niklas Hjalmarsson, who is also able to slide over to his off side, has spent a lot of time in his career opposite Keith, and the two have developed a rapport that enables them to keep each other on point. Hjalmarsson believes that relationship sets a standard that should apply across the blue line.

“(Keith and I) kind of know exactly what we get from each other night in and night out,” Hjalmarsson said. “It’s not too often we get on each other’s case, but we rely on each other to bring our best every night.

“That’s the standard for how it should be, and if you play with a first-year guy, you want to be talking more and be more active that way and help him out on the ice.”

While Campbell isn’t the offensive force he has been in the past, his addition gives Quenneville a multitude of options when it comes to his defense pairings and it allows the coach to spread out the minutes a little bit better than in the past. The Hawks still rely heavily on Keith – sixth in the NHL averaging better than 26:00 per game – and might prefer to scale back a bit on his ice time as the season wears on. The continued development of Forsling and Trevor van Riemsdyk may allow Quenneville to do just that.

Elsewhere in the Western Conference on this quiet evening:

  • Mike Chambers of The Denver Post compares the Colorado Avalanche to the Blackhawks, both in terms of how the clubs were constructed and their current salary cap situations. Chambers points out that both teams have had the advantage of multiple high lottery draft picks – Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane for Chicago and Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog for Colorado –  with which to build the foundation of their respective clubs. Additionally, as Chambers further argues, the two have invested heavily in keeping their core groups intact. The Hawks have more than $38MM allocated to just five players – Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook and Corey Crawford, while Colorado has more than $35MM annually tied up in their core – MacKinnon, Duchene, Landeskog, Erik Johnson, Tyson Barrie and Semyon Varlamov. The large investments in their core players limits how much each team has to spend on complementary pieces while also pushing them close to the cap ceiling. However that’s where the similarities end. While Chicago has been one of the league’s top teams since 2010, Colorado has been to the playoff just once in the last six seasons and this year is last in the NHL in goals scored, goals allowed and currently sit 30th in the league in the standings. Clearly where Chicago has excelled in putting the right pieces together on the ice, the Avalanche have failed to find the right mix. At some point the Avalanche is likely going to make a move or moves to change their core.

Full List Of Mandatory-Protection Players In Expansion Draft

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Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston has published the full list of players who, due to no-movement clauses in their current contracts, must be protected in the upcoming expansion draft for the new Vegas Golden Knights. These are players who will count against the protection limits should they choose not to waive their NMC rights prior to the draft.

Each team has the right to protect either:

A) Seven forwards, three defenders, one goaltender

or

B) Eight skaters, one goaltender

These players will count against those numbers, and as Johnston points out, there are some notable inclusions and omissions from this group. Players like Jordan Staal, Rick Nash and Bobby Ryan all had incorrect information spread about their contracts. The former two will now need protection, while the latter will not, due to his deal only having a no-movement to the minors clause.

The Chicago Blackhawks, with eight players listed, will have little flexibility at the draft, with only four forward spots (or one defenseman) left to use. Many others, according to Johnston, including Toronto’s Nathan Horton, are likely to be made exempt if they are still on LTIR as the draft approaches.

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Blackhawks Notes: Toews, Kane, Expansion Draft, Crawford

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The Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Lazerus answers fan questions and begins by looking at the Jonathan Toews–Patrick Kane pairing. After a shaky start, the Blackhawks have been on fire since, rocketing to the top of the Western Conference thanks to Vezina-like goaltending from Corey Crawford and timely goal scoring.  Something fans wanted for a long time, a line featuring Toews and Kane together, was successful in boosting the Hawks to an 8-2-1 record since its construction. The downside? It hasn’t been as dominant as some fans want it to be. Lazerus points out that Toews has four goals and six assists in 11 games with Kane while the latter has four goals and seven assists. While it hasn’t been a “dumpster fire,” as Lazerus put it, it hasn’t been as successful as fans would have thought–or wished.

With that said, Lazerus believes it to be foolish separating the lines, especially since Marian Hossa has experienced a resurgence and is playing exceptionally well with Artem Anisimov and Artemi Panarin.

  • Lazerus also answers questions about the expansion draft and who the Hawks are likely to protect come this summer. Aside from Toews, Kane, Hossa, and Anisimov, Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, and Niklas Hjalmarsson who all have non-movement clauses, the younger players are also exempt. Lazerus predicts that Trevor van Riemsdyk, Marcus Kruger, or even Richard Panik (should his contract be extended) will be taken by Las Vegas.
  • Meanwhile, Scott Powers looks at a number of statistical measures for the Blackhawks that ranges from Corsi to the impressive dominance of the Blackhawks over the season.  From Powers:
  • 50.29: The Blackhawks are 12th in the NHL with a 50.29 Corsi percentage in 5-on-5 play. They’re 24th with an average of 52.82 Corsi for per 60 minutes and seventh at 52.22 Corsi against per 60. They’re 26th with 27.5 shots on goal for per 60 minutes and 21st at 30.58 shots on goal against per 60.
  • 96.00: Corey Crawford is fourth in the NHL with 96.00 save percentage in 5-on-5 play this season. He’s allowed 13 goals on 325 shots. Only two other goalies have faced more 5-on-5 shots than Crawford this season. He’s also fifth with 90.14 high-danger save percentage and leads the league with 13.55 goals saved above average.

The piece about Crawford is valuable because his play has paced Chicago through their torrid run since the end of October. Often believed to be the beneficiary of a great defense, Crawford has been a rock between the pipes and the advanced stats bear that out. Many are taking notice.

Though he was snubbed last season by not even being listed as a Vezina candidate, Crawford should find his name on the ballot this year if his dominant play continues.

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