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Connor Hellebuyck

NHL Names Western Conference All-Stars

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Sportsnet is reporting that the NHL has named the first 16 selections from the Western Conference who will appear in the NHL All-Star Game that will take place February 3rd in Toronto.

The game will be held in Canada for the first time since 2012, when it was held in Ottawa. Toronto hasn’t hosted the game since 2000 and this year will be the first time that the NHL uses a four-team, three-on-three format in combination with the fantasy draft format that was used from 2011-2015. The league will name four captains, one for each team, who will take part in a draft to select their teams on February 1st.

The initial players named from the Western Conference are as follows:

Central Division

Arizona: LW Clayton Keller (4th appearance)
Chicago: C Connor Bedard (1st appearance)
Colorado: C Nathan MacKinnon (3rd appearance)
Dallas: G Jake Oettinger (1st appearance)
Minnesota: LW Kirill Kaprizov (3rd appearance)
Nashville: C Filip Forsberg (1st appearance)
St. Louis: C Robert Thomas (1st appearance)
Winnipeg: G Connor Hellebuyck (3rd appearance)

Pacific Division

Anaheim: LW Frank Vatrano (1st appearance)
Calgary: C Elias Lindholm (1st appearance)
Edmonton: C Connor McDavid (7th appearance)
Los Angeles: G Cam Talbot (1st appearance)
San Jose: C Tomas Hertl (1st appearance)
Seattle: RW Oliver Bjorkstrand (1st appearance)
Vancouver: D Quinn Hughes (1st appearance)
Vegas: C Jack Eichel (1st appearance)

The initial announcements of 32 players (one player to represent each team) tonight will be followed by the naming of the final 12 all-stars in the coming weeks. Those 12 players will be decided by a fan vote on NHL.com as well as several of the NHL’s social media platforms.

Snapshots: Flames, Three Stars, Lightning

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The Fourth Period is reporting that the Calgary Flames picked up trade talks with several teams last week as they look to potentially move on from several pending unrestricted free agents. The Fourth Period cited sources saying that the New Jersey Devils were one of the teams they talked to and even linked the Devils to both Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev.

The Flames currently have a record of 15-16-5 through their first 36 games which puts them five points out of a playoff spot as they near the halfway point of the regular season. The team will have a big decision to make in the coming weeks as they also have center Elias Lindholm on an expiring contract, and he is reportedly looking for a deal in the range of $9MM annually.

The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta also believes that teams have expressed interest in Flames defenseman MacKenzie Weegar, but it’s hard to believe Calgary would deal him given that he is in the first year of an eight-year contract and has a full no-trade clause.

Other notes from around the league:

  • The NHL has announced its Three Stars of the Month, with Nathan MacKinnon taking First Star, Auston Matthews winning Second Star, and Connor Hellebuyck being named Third Star. MacKinnon won on the heels of an 11-goal, 29-point performance in 15 games in December, while Matthew’s put up 15 goals and six assists in just 12 games. Hellebuyck’s December performance saw him post an impressive 7-0-2 record, which was good enough for a Third Star.
  • Tampa Bay Lightning writer Chris Krenn is reporting that the Lightning were forced to dress just five defensemen tonight due to injuries and salary cap constraints. The Lightning lost Erik Cernak and Haydn Fleury recently to injury and with no cap space to make a recall, the Lightning were forced to play the Winnipeg Jets one defender short of a full six. The Lightning will be eligible to make an emergency recall after tonight, but due to the language in the Roster Emergency Exception rule, they must wait until the second game to be eligible to recall a player under emergency conditions.

Winnipeg Jets Extend Mark Scheifele, Connor Hellebuyck

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3:34 p.m.: Both contracts carry a full no-movement clause from 2024-25 through 2026-27 and a modified no-trade clause for the rest of the deal, per PuckPedia.

2:27 p.m.: The Winnipeg Jets have signed center Mark Scheifele and netminder Connor Hellebuyck to matching seven-year extensions carrying an $8.5MM cap hit, according to a team announcement Monday. PuckPedia has the full breakdown of both contracts:

2024-25: $5MM salary, $5MM signing bonus
2025-26: $10MM salary
2026-27: $7.5MM salary
2027-28: $10MM salary
2028-29: $9MM salary
2029-30: $7MM salary
2030-31: $6MM salary

This is absolutely massive news for the Jets franchise on the eve of the 2023-24 NHL season. Not only have they retained their number-one center and star netminder for the remainder of the decade, but they’ve taken two of the top pending free agents off the market next summer.

Scheifele, 30, was entering the final season of an eight-year deal carrying a $6.125MM cap hit. Hellebuyck, also 30, was nearing the end of a similar deal earning him $6.167MM per season. It’s a raise of around $2.4MM per season for both as they remain Jets throughout (and past) their primes. Both players will be 38 when their deals expire, meaning these are potentially the last contracts they’ll sign in the NHL. Per CapFriendly, Winnipeg now has around $18MM in cap space for the 2024-25 campaign assuming an Upper Limit of $87.5MM with five to eight roster spots to fill. With no other big negotiations to worry about (other than young forward Cole Perfetti), it’s a reasonable financial picture for general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff as he enters his 12th year on the job.

Scheifele is as core as core gets for a franchise. He was the team’s first draft pick after relocating from Atlanta, selected 7th overall in the 2011 NHL Draft, and he’s the team’s leader in goals since their relocation. The 6-foot-3, 207-pound pivot has notched 272 goals, 373 assists and 645 points in 723 career games as a Jet across 12 seasons – a number that will increase to a spectacular 21 should he finish out this contract in Manitoba. His value has never been higher, either – he just eclipsed the 40-goal mark for the first time in his career and logged over 20 minutes per game for the seventh straight season in 2022-23.

He is quite the opposite of a defensive specialist, however, and his liabilities without the puck will likely lead to debate over whether he’s worth the money on this extension. Still, he’s notched at least a point per game in six out of the last seven seasons and more than deserves a shot to help lead the Jets to their first championship in franchise history. By sinking significant resources into their core until their late 30s, Cheveldayoff is sending a clear message that Cup contention remains the goal entering 2023-24.

There will surely be concerns about the value of these massive contracts as they age. However, if the cap continues to increase in five percent intervals as initially laid out by the league, the Upper Limit could be as high as $117.25MM in 2030-31. In that case, Scheifele’s and Hellebuyck’s contracts would amount to roughly 14.5% of the cap, softening the blow of their potential declines in value.

Hellebucyk is also a career Jet, selected 130th overall a year after Scheifele during the 2012 NHL Draft. He made his big-league debut at age 22 during the 2015-16 season, and he claimed his role as the team’s undisputed starter a season later when he posted a 26-19-4 record and a .907 save percentage in 53 starts in 2016-17.

2017-18 saw Winnipeg win their first playoff series in franchise history, advancing all the way to the Western Conference Final. Hellebuyck’s breakout that season as a truly elite netminder was the driving force behind it, as he led all NHL netminders in starts (67) and wins (44) that season while recording a .924 save percentage. He’s now posted a save percentage north of .920 three times in his career (including last season), and his 357 starts over the past six seasons lead all NHL goalies – as do his 10,412 saves. Hellebuyck is nothing short of a workhorse and has been incredibly consistent over the past years, an incredibly rare quality in a goaltender. He projects to remain in the NHL’s upper echelon of netminders well into his 30s.

His contract comes in just a hair more expensive than New York Islanders superstar Ilya Sorokin, who signed an eight-year extension carrying an $8.25MM cap hit earlier this summer. He’s two years younger than Hellebuyck, but the added eighth year on the extension means that the contract will expire after Sorokin’s age-37 season. Reports earlier this summer suggested Hellebuyck was rather closed to the idea of re-signing in Winnipeg and wanted a $9MM AAV offer from teams interested in trading for him, but those offers never materialized.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Snapshots: Hellebuyck, Oilers, Trade Deadline

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When word surfaced this summer that Connor Hellebuyck was hoping for a long-term deal worth around $9.5MM per season, trade speculation cooled sharply.  To that end, Murat Ates of The Athletic speculates (subscription link) that the Jets could shift focus and look to try to extend the netminder on a short-term contract.  Since Winnipeg’s books are relatively clean for 2024-25, they could theoretically make an offer around that range in the hopes that they could entice him to stick around for at least another year or two.  That would allow Hellebuyck to get the top dollar that he’s seeking while extending Winnipeg’s current window, one that GM Kevin Cheveldayoff believes his team can contend in.  If a long-term deal at that price point can’t be done, this could be the next best option.

Elsewhere around the NHL:

  • Kurt Leavins of the Edmonton Journal breaks down the various camp battles that will be coming at training camp. The most notable one is likely the battle for the 12th (and quite possibly final) forward spot on the roster.  Veterans Sam Gagner and Brandon Sutter will be in camp on tryouts while internally, James Hamblin and Raphael Lavoie are candidates.  Lavoie’s contract – he opted to take his qualifying offer instead of signing a two-way deal that traded some NHL pay for more guaranteed money – makes him hard to fit in on their books.  Accordingly, Leavins gives Gagner the edge for now but wonders if Edmonton might be keeping an eye on the waiver wire as camp progresses to see if another option presents itself.
  • The trade deadline has tentatively been set for March 8th, relays Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic (Twitter link). While that seems later than usual – it’s often in late February – there are games scheduled until April 18th; the deadline typically falls 40 days before the end of the regular season.

Central Notes: Jets, Zhigalov, Bichsel

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The futures of Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele with the Jets has been a source of speculation all summer with no extensions in place as they enter the final year of their contracts.  GM Kevin Cheveldayoff told Pierre LeBrun and Michael Russo of The Athletic (subscription link) that he plans to meet with both players once training camp gets underway to continue talks on a new deal.  After trading Pierre-Luc Dubois and buying out Blake Wheeler, Winnipeg’s roster looks a bit weaker on paper heading into the season but having Hellebuyck and Scheifele around would certainly help their chances of making the playoffs.  At this point, they’re expected to be on the roster when the regular season starts whether or not an extension is in place.

Elsewhere in the Central:

  • Avalanche prospect Ivan Zhigalov was supposed to play in Belarus this season but the deal ultimately fell through. However, it appears as if he has found a new place to play as McKeen’s Brock Otten reports (Twitter link) that the netminder will suit up for USHL Tri-City in 2023-24.  The 20-year-old was the final pick of the 2022 draft (225th overall) and spent last season with OHL Kingston where he posted a 3.59 GAA with a .889 SV% in 45 games.  The Avs have until June 1st to sign Zhigalov to an entry-level deal.
  • Stars prospect Lian Bichsel underwent ankle surgery back in the spring but he has been cleared to return as the team posted on Twitter that the blueliner skated in Dallas for the first time on Friday. The 19-year-old was the 18th pick last year and spent last season in Leksands’ system, playing in 42 games at the SHL level.  There was a report back in August that suggested Bichsel won’t go back there for the upcoming season if he doesn’t land a roster spot with Dallas but instead, he’ll go to Rogle, another SHL squad.

Winnipeg Jets To Be Patient With Connor Hellebuyck, Mark Scheifele

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Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele have been in trade rumors all summer long. And Sportsnet’s Ken Wiebe says that training camp isn’t putting any pressure on the Winnipeg Jets to find a deal. Wiebe says that the Jets don’t want to make a rash decision regarding their top center and goaltender, especially following the trading of Pierre-Luc Dubois, Scheifele’s former number-two, to the Los Angeles Kings.

Instead, Wiebe expects both Scheifele and Hellebuyck to attend training camp, where reporters and fans should be able to get a much better sense of what path forward the players may prefer. The team remains open to both trades and possible contract extensions, although the price of either option would be steep. How the Jets handle Hellebuyck and Scheifele’s situation will be very interesting to follow, as it could be a strong indicator of the team’s goals over the next few years.

There’s no denying the impact that Hellebuyck or Scheifele makes on a day-to-day basis. Hellebuyck ranks second in wins over the last five seasons, behind only Andrei Vasilevskiy, and his .916 save percentage ranks sixth among all goalies with 150 or more games played in that span. He won the Vezina Trophy only four seasons ago and finished third in Vezina voting this year, marking the fourth time he’s finished in the top five.

And while Hellebuyck has been a stone wall in net, Scheifele has been the team’s goal-scorer. He netted 42 goals in 81 games last season, his first time breaking the 40-goal mark. He’s reached 272 career goals, all coming with the Jets, placing him just 56 goals behind Ilya Kovalchuk’s franchise goal-scoring record. Scheifele also ranks second in all-time franchise scoring, with 645 career points. While the Jets have tended to spread around their ice time, Scheifele continues to operate confidently as the team’s top-line center.

The Winnipeg Jets aren’t necessarily up against the cap but keeping around a Vezina-caliber starter and 40-goal-scoring top-line center beyond this season will undoubtedly come at a rich price. For a team with a lot of questions looming, decisions around Hellebuyck and Scheifele will be telling.

East Notes: Trade Targets, Amirov Jersey Retirement, Nylander

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Toronto Maple Leafs forward William Nylander and Winnipeg Jets players Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele land atop the latest Trade Targets list from The Athletic, written by Shayna Goldman. All pending unrestricted free agents, Nylander finds himself first on the list after recording a career-high 40 goals and 87 points in 82 games last season. As Goldman notes, it’s highly unlikely a potential Nylander extension becomes top of mind for Toronto GM Brad Treliving until an extension for teammate Auston Matthews is signed, sealed and delivered.

Regarding Hellebuyck, his trade value has decreased in recent months, with teams shying away from doling out large sums of cash to bonafide starting netminders, instead looking for value options in the crease to guide them deep in the playoffs. Goldman posits, however, that it’s a method that can work only for a select few – namely Colorado and Vegas, as it has the past two seasons, given the strengths of their defense corps. While teams should be rightfully wary about handing out too much term to Hellebuyck on an extension, given he’s already 31 years old, acquiring a clear-cut elite starter is still necessary for some teams to reach championship contention. Other names on the list included Anaheim Ducks netminder John Gibson, Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Brett Pesce, Calgary Flames players Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm, and Arizona Coyotes forwards Nick Schmaltz and Jason Zucker.

  • In a well-deserved and meaningful gesture, KHL club Salavat Yulaev Ufa will be retiring Rodion Amirov’s number 27 after the young forward passed away from a years-long battle with a brain tumor on Tuesday, according to The Hockey News’ David Alter. The 21-year-old Maple Leafs prospect had suited up in 70 games for his hometown team before he had to stop his playing career in 2021 to undergo cancer treatment. Reports indicate Salavat’s captain, 625-game KHL veteran Grigori Panin, initiated the decision.
  • Alexander Nylander is a candidate to slide into the Pittsburgh Penguins’ top six to begin the season, says The Athletic’s Rob Rossi. The 2016 eighth-overall pick could get a look at either Sidney Crosby’s or Evgeni Malkin’s left wing with Jake Guentzel sidelined for the first few games of 2023-24 after undergoing ankle surgery earlier this month. Now on his third NHL organization, the 25-year-old Nylander will look to capture a full-time spot in the NHL for the first time since he played 65 games with the Chicago Blackhawks in 2019-20.

Jets Notes: Hellebuyck, Scheifele, Stanley, Chisholm

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Things have been quiet on the Connor Hellebuyck trade rumors front over the past few weeks. No teams have made serious offers for the pending UFA’s services since he reportedly informed interested teams he desired a $9.5MM AAV on a long-term extension. Without a trade in place, the Jets haven’t shut the door completely on trying to extend their franchise netminder. In a mailbag today, Sportsnet’s Ken Wiebe says he believes Winnipeg has made a short-term, two-to-three-year extension offer to Hellebuyck, although it’s not something he suspects Hellebuyck’s camp would ever agree to.

Hellebuyck reportedly told Winnipeg he was unwilling to sign an extension in June, giving the Jets plenty of time to work out a deal. The team has had some interesting roster turnover this summer, though, getting a nice return package for Pierre-Luc Dubois that arguably upgraded their team in the short term. With a Western Conference that’s routinely anyone’s game aside from the few top dogs, it’s not out of the question the Jets return to the postseason in 2024 – maybe even with a better-equipped squad. As each day passes, it seems increasingly likely Hellebuyck will at least start next season in a Jets uniform. His primary goal remains winning a championship, so if Winnipeg can get off to a strong start with new faces in the fold, expect them to make a bigger push to keep Hellebuyck around after all.

Some other notes on the Jets from Wiebe:

  • Speculatively, Wiebe threw some cold water on the idea of trading first-line center Mark Scheifele to the Boston Bruins, citing Boston’s tight salary cap picture and the uncertainty surrounding Hellebuyck as reasons why. With Scheifele’s less exorbitant demands on an extension, he’s likely the easier of the two to trade if they do reach that point. Also a pending UFA, Scheifele currently carries a cap hit of $6.125MM and is coming off a career-high 42 goals in 2022-23. Considering all the moving parts involved in a potential trade with the Bruins, it makes sense the Jets would rather wait and see what a potential Hellebuyck return brings them before discussing a Scheifele deal.
  • Wiebe also believes the Jets may indeed sign RFA defenseman Logan Stanley before potentially honoring his trade request. As he notes, it’ll be a tough fit for Stanley to get consistent NHL time with Winnipeg next season after Dylan Samberg surpassed him on the depth chart last year. The 2016 first-round pick isn’t in line for a large raise, either, meaning it’s likely inconsequential if he signs a contract for 2023-24 with the Jets or if he signs with a new team after they trade for his signing rights. Stanley was eligible for salary arbitration this summer but opted not to file. He played in just 19 games for Winnipeg last season, recording three points and a 45.9% Corsi for at even strength while averaging just 13:43 per game.
  • Similarly, Wiebe thinks the Jets haven’t agreed to minor-league defender Declan Chisholm on a new deal yet, thanks to the latter’s desire for a one-way contract. Chisholm has just a pair of NHL games to his name but excelled in the minors with the AHL’s Manitoba Moose last season, posting 43 points in 59 games and earning an AHL All-Star nod in the process. The 23-year-old defenseman may very well get claimed on waivers if the Jets sign him and attempt to send him back to Manitoba after a strong camp, though, so Chisholm is likely to earn an NHL salary next season regardless, although a two-way deal would remove that guarantee.

Free Agent Profile: Jaroslav Halak

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Jaroslav Halak has been on quite the journey since he led the Montreal Canadiens to back-to-back playoff upsets of the President’s Trophy winning Washington Capitals and defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins back in 2010. Halak was so effective in that run to the Conference Finals that many Canadiens fans wanted the team to keep him and trade his partner, Carey Price. Montreal opted to keep Price and shipped Halak to the St. Louis Blues for a package that included Lars Eller.

The early returns in St. Louis were good as Halak was solid in his first season with the Blues and even better in year two when he and Brian Elliott won the William M. Jennings Trophy for the fewest goals against in the league. That year Halak also garnered Vezina Trophy votes and ultimately finished sixth in voting as he sported a stellar .926 save percentage and a 1.97 goals-against average.

Eventually, the shine wore off in St. Louis and Halak lost the net to Elliot and was traded to the Washington Capitals midway through the 2013-14 campaign. He played well for the Capitals in limited action but the team ultimately missed the playoffs.

That summer, the Bratislava, Czechoslovakia native signed a four-year deal with the New York Islanders with an annual cap hit of $4.5M. The Islanders received excellent goaltending from Halak in his first season with the team as he went 38-17-4 with a .914 save percentage and a 2.43 goals-against average. In fact, through his first three years on Long Island Halak posted a save percentage above .910 every year, and kept his quality starts percentage over 50%, which means his save percentage was above the average more often than not.

It was in the final year of his contract with the Islanders that the cracks started to show in Halak’s game as he struggled in 2017-18 and posted the worst numbers of his career up to that point with a .908 save percentage and a 3.19 goals-against average.

Understanding that his days as a starter were likely ending, Halak signed a two-year deal with the Boston Bruins to back-up Tuukka Rask. Halak ended up playing in almost half of Boston’s games that year and outplayed Rask for large portions of the season in what was one of the best years of Halak’s career as he went 22-11-4 with a save percentage of .922 and a goals-against average of 2.34. Halak would win another Jennings Trophy the following year posting a .919 save percentage in what was another fantastic campaign for the netminder. That season in Boston, the 2019-20 campaign is the last time that Halak has posted a save percentage over .910.

Since the 2019-20 season, Halak hasn’t been able to be counted on to provide consistent play. Halak hasn’t started more than 25 games in the past three seasons, and although that isn’t entirely his fault thanks to injuries and a pandemic, he has been a tick below average when he has played.

At 38-years-old Halak and 17 seasons into his career, Halak has a lot of miles on his body, but he did indicate a month ago that he would like to continue playing. Halak reportedly talked about an extension with the New York Rangers prior to free agency, but ultimately the Rangers decided to sign Jonathan Quick to be their backup, which is a definite downgrade from Halak at this point. Halak needs just five wins to reach 300 and given his track record he should be presented soon with an opportunity to be a backup next season.

Stats

2022-23: 25 GP, 10-9-5, 2.72 GAA, .903 SV%, 1 SO
Career: 581 GP, 295-189-69, 2.50 GAA, .915 SV%, 53 SO 

Potential Suitors

At Halak’s age he probably isn’t looking to get pummeled with fifty shots every night which means we can likely filter out any rebuilding teams. At first glance, the New Jersey Devils and St. Louis Blues are two teams who have a need for depth in net.

The Devils are a team that feels like they are on the cusp of building something great, their defense is mobile and quick, they can push the pace and defend. Their forward group is skilled, fast, and comes at you in waves. But goaltending is their Achilles heel. The Devils have reportedly shown interest in several goaltending options including Connor Hellebuyck and John Gibson, but both of those goaltenders would require large commitments that the Devils might not want to make. But the Devils do need some help in the crease as they will once again enter this season relying on the tandem of Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid. Both goaltenders are relatively inexperienced, and while they backed the Devils to the second round of the playoffs last season, they might need an extra set of hands to get the club there again. Neither Schmid, nor Vanecek have a history of playing at a high level in the NHL for an extended period, which means that even a league-average goaltender like Halak could give a big boost to the team’s depth chart and offer up a solution should either man falter.

For the St. Louis Blues, they’ve made some interesting moves over the past year but haven’t done much to address their goaltending. It’s fair to say that the Blues goaltending was porous last season. Jordan Binnington, now in the third year of a six-year $36MM contract, hasn’t been good in two seasons posting a 45-41-10 regular season record, with a 3.24 goals-against average and a .897 SV%. If you take a deep dive into his numbers the picture gets even worse, in the last two seasons Binnington has posted a minus-26.6 GSAA, meaning that he gave up almost 27 goals more than the average NHL goalie would on the same number of shots. Couple this with St. Louis deciding to run with rookie Joel Hofer as a backup and you have a potential recipe for disaster for the Blues. No disrespect to Hofer, who had a terrific year with the Springfield Thunderbirds last season in the AHL, but he is inexperienced and is no guarantee to step up should Binnington falter for a third year in a row. Adding a netminder like Halak might give the Blues a good safety net in case one of their two goaltenders were to struggle or get hurt. He wouldn’t cost anything in the way of assets and could give the Blues some peace of mind.

Projected Contract

A month ago, it seemed like a sure thing that Halak would get a one-year NHL deal for a bit over $1MM. Now a month into free agency, I’m not so sure. I think that barring an off-season training injury before training camps open, Halak will have to settle for a number three role on a team with good depth in net, or a PTO. The experienced veteran would provide a good fallback option in a pinch and can give guidance to younger goalies who might be ahead of him on the depth chart.

I’d be surprised at this point if Halak got over $1MM on his next contract, however, with that being said, injuries can create urgency quickly, especially in net. Halak could be the first netminder who gets a call from a team with thin goalie depth after they get stung by the injury bug. Even if this were to happen, Halak is like to end up with a six-figure deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Previewing The Top 2024 Unrestricted Free Agents

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This year’s free agent class was underwhelming. There’s no disrespect intended here to players like Alex Killorn, Dmitry Orlov and Vladimir Tarasenko. However, we’ve grown accustomed to at least one true star being available on the market every year – at least a top-ten player at their position. But a flurry of extensions took some potential game-breakers, such as Boston Bruins sniper David Pastrnak off the market, limiting the amount of star power available.

With the salary cap finally expected to jump significantly by about $4MM next offseason, some NHL general managers will undoubtedly look to spend that extra cash on a shiny new toy on the UFA market. As 2023 is mainly in the rearview mirror, let’s take a look at some of the best players slated to hit the open market next summer, whether or not they may extend, and offer some way-too-early contract projections in the process:

F Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs) – The unquestionable crown jewel of the 2024 free agent class might also be one of the least likely to hit the market. Matthews is more than just a superstar – he’s a season removed from back-to-back Rocket Richard Trophies, he’s led the league in even-strength goals in four out of his seven NHL seasons, and he’s coming off a “down season” in which he still managed 40 goals despite a career-low 12.2 shooting percentage. Toronto is still plugging away at an extension with Matthews, a process that was surely elongated by a change at the GM position earlier this offseason. While multiple reports suggested it likely won’t be a long-term deal to keep Matthews in Toronto, seeing his name available for anyone to pursue next July would be shocking.

Extension Likelihood: Very Likely
Projected Contract: Five years, $62MM ($12.4MM AAV)

F William Nylander (Toronto Maple Leafs) – Another star in Canada’s largest city is also headed for the open market next season. Nylander is coming off a strong season with a career-high 40 goals and 87 points, but multiple reports indicate contract talks are currently at an impasse between the two sides. The Swedish winger reportedly wants an eight-figure cap hit on his next deal, one he’s increasingly unlikely to receive after sub-$10MM extensions for players like the Carolina Hurricanes’ Sebastian Aho. He will be in his prime at 28 years old next summer, though, and he currently holds the undisputed title of the best pure winger slated to hit the market. Given the slated cap increase, Nylander may be able to garner the money he desires elsewhere if Toronto isn’t willing to fork over another eight-figure deal.

Extension Likelihood: Somewhat Unlikely
Projected Contract: Seven years, $70MM ($10MM AAV)

F Steven Stamkos (Tampa Bay Lightning) – Including Stamkos on this list seems like more of a formality than anything else. The captain of back-to-back Stanley Cup championship teams in Tampa and likely to go down as the greatest player in franchise history when he retires, it’s nearly impossible to imagine him wearing another jersey. Barring an unforeseen breakdown in communication, Stamkos will be re-upping with the Bolts on what could potentially be the final contract of his NHL career as he enters his mid-30s. After yet another point-per-game season, Stamkos will undoubtedly be sticking around in Tampa as long as they’ll have him, likely at a slight discount to help them replenish their depth reserves.

Extension Likelihood: Very Likely
Projected Contract: Four years, $31.5MM ($7.875MM AAV)

F Jake Guentzel (Pittsburgh Penguins) – The Penguins have exhibited a strong tendency toward keeping the band together in recent seasons, but it’s a trend that may change under the front-office leadership of Kyle Dubas. Still, it’s hard to imagine the Penguins won’t field a competitive offer to keep Guentzel in the fold. He’s been one of the most successful and consistent linemates to Sidney Crosby in the entire illustrious career of the future Hall-of-Famer, he’s a two-time 40-goal scorer, and he’s an incredibly clutch playoff performer. While contract extension talks haven’t begun between the two parties yet, reporting indicates the Penguins’ core shares the public’s view of Guentzel and would like to keep him around.

Extension Likelihood: Likely
Projected Contract: Eight years, $75MM ($9.375MM AAV)

F Mark Scheifele (Winnipeg Jets) – The first of two Jets on this list hasn’t been in trade rumors quite as much as his netminding counterpart, but there’s still a very good chance Scheifele is sporting a different jersey by the 2024 trade deadline. Speculation has immediately run rampant about Scheifele as a stop-gap fix down the middle for the Boston Bruins, who are without their number-one center after captain Patrice Bergeron announced his retirement last week. There are plenty of question marks about how highly Scheifele is actually valued around the league, given his significant defensive lapses, but he’s consistently produced the offense you’d want out of a number-one center. Despite scoring a career-high 42 goals last season, 2022-23 was actually Scheifele’s first campaign falling short of a point per game since 2015-16, when he was just 22 years old.

Extension Likelihood: Unlikely
Projected Contract: Seven years, $66MM ($9.4MM AAV)

D Devon Toews (Colorado Avalanche) – Toews may be the most unheralded defenseman in the league thanks to his partner, Cale Makar. On almost any other team, Toews would be a legitimate number-one defender with very few holes in his game. Little has been made of his impending free agency, but he’ll be due a major raise on his current bargain-bin $4.1MM cap hit. Combined with the potential loss of captain Gabriel Landeskog’s LTIR relief should he return to play in 2024-25, it could be incredibly difficult for Colorado to retain him even with the cap going up. Not only does Toews consistently rank among having some of the best defensive impacts in the league, but he’s also coming off back-to-back 50-point campaigns and has finished top-15 in Norris voting during each of his three seasons in Colorado.

Extension Likelihood: 50/50
Projected Contract: Seven years, $61MM ($8.7MM AAV)

D Brandon Montour (Florida Panthers) – A pair of prominent Panthers defenders are up for UFA status next season in Montour and Gustav Forsling, but Montour’s the one we’ll cover more in-depth here after he led the Panthers’ defense in playoff scoring with eight goals and 13 points in 21 games despite playing through a shoulder injury which will cost him the beginning of the 2023-24 campaign. His stock has never been higher after exploding for 73 points in 80 regular season games, along with a career-high 107 penalty minutes. While he’s still a rather one-dimensional player and likely to be somewhat of a liability defensively, he’s finally shown legitimate top-pair ability at 29 years old. Committing any term to Montour as a UFA may be a case of buyer beware, however, as his track record is far from consistent.

Extension Likelihood: Somewhat Unlikely
Projected Contract: Four years, $26MM ($6.5MM AAV)

G Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg Jets) – It seemed very unlikely a few months ago that Hellebuyck would be on this list today. While there’s no chance he’ll be signing an extension with the Jets, a trade followed by an extension with a new team seemed rather likely this offseason. However, some outlandish financial demands from Hellebuyck’s camp dried up trade interest, and there hasn’t been a lot of movement on that front lately. While small, the possibility that Hellebuyck lands on the open market next season seems to be increasing without a trade or extension any closer to fruition.

Extension Likelihood: Very Unlikely
Projected Contract: Seven years, $61.25MM ($8.75MM AAV)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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