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Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Panarin, Faksa, Niederreiter

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Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated their respective negotiation processes.

Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency, unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. We move on to the Central Division.

Artemi Panarin (Chicago) – The 2015-16 Calder Trophy recipient can set himself up for a monster payday with another 30-goal, 70-point campaign in 2016-17. Panarin surprised many by quickly acclimating to North America and putting up huge offensive numbers right away. He kicked off the season with a goal in game one against the Rangers and remained consistent throughout the campaign finishing just one month – February – with fewer than 10 points.

The first name that comes to mind as a potential comparable is Vladimir Tarasenko, who netted 37 goals and totaled 73 points before receiving an eight-year extension from St. Louis with an AAV of $7.5MM. Another possibility would be Filip Forsberg, who averaged 30 goals and nearly 64 points in each of the two full seasons prior to inking his new $6MM-a-year deal.

As they do every summer, seemingly, Chicago will be confronted with a cap crunch and will be looking to try to save as much money as possible on Panarin’s next contract. A trade is always a possibility, as they did with Brandon Saad, but it’s hard to imagine the Hawks dealing away two dynamic young talents just two years apart. Best guess is Chicago pushes for something closer to $6MM per on a long term deal and Panarin’s camp asking for something closer to $7MM.

Radek Faksa (Dallas) – Ordinarily, a five-goal, 12-point rookie debut wouldn’t generate much interest but with another season to go before reaching restricted free agency, and all of the offensive firepower the Stars have accumulated, it’s possible the big and skilled Faksa enjoys a real breakout campaign in 2016-17. Faksa is 22, set to turn 23 in January. He’s at an age where players tend to hit their stride and with well over 100 professional games on his resume, Faksa now has invaluable experience to go along with his skill.

The other factor that will make this a potentially interesting negotiation is the Stars cap situation. The team should have around $25MM in available space but with only 11 players signed for 2017-18, the Stars will have to be judicious with their spending. A big sophomore campaign for Faksa will complicate matters for the Stars and their ability to replace other veteran players likely to depart after the season.

At this point, the best guess is likely a bridge deal for Faksa. Even presuming a productive 2016-17 season, he won’t have much of a track record to bank on. Depending on the quality of Faksa’s 2016-17 campaign, a contract comparable to the one-year deals inked by Zemgus Girgensons or Mikhail Grigorenko – for $1.15MM and $1.3MM respectively – could be a fair compromise. Girgensons had a solid 2014-15 season, scoring 15 goals and 30 points before struggling to an 18-point year in 2015-16. Grigorenko posted a scoring line of 6-21=27 for Colorado this past season as a 22-year-old.

If Faksa enjoys a better platform year, then perhaps the two-year, $5.5MM pact J.T. Miller and the Rangers settled on this summer is something the Czech center can shoot for. Miller bested his previous career highs in goals by 12 and points by 20 during the 2015-16 campaign and earned roughly a 300% bump in pay as a result. Faksa has the talent and may get the opportunity in Dallas to post that same type of breakout performance for the Stars.

Nino Niederreiter (Minnesota) – Niederreiter has quietly put together consecutive 20-goal campaigns and established a career best with 43 points in 2015-16 for the Minnesota Wild. He is entering the final season of a two-year, bridge contract that comes with an AAV of $2.67MM.

Niederreiter’s previous two seasons compare favorably to those of New York Rangers winger Chris Kreider. Kreider has tallied back-to-back 21-goal campaigns and combined for 89 points over that span. The big Swiss winger, on the other hand, has totaled 44 goals and 80 points over the last two years. Kreider finished his two-year bridge deal – AAV of $2.475 – and signed a four-year contract worth $18.5MM. That might represent a solid blue print for Niederreiter’s next pact.

Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Pacific Division, Part I

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Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated the negotiation process.

Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we start in the Pacific Division.

Anthony Duclair (Arizona) – “The Duke” is coming off a solid rookie season, scoring 20 goals and posting 44 points in 81 games for the Coyotes. Arizona acquired Duclair and a couple of draft picks from the New York Rangers at the 2015 deadline in the Keith Yandle deal. Duclair, considered a first-round talent in his draft year, tumbled into the third-round following an injury-shortened 2014-15 campaign in the QMJHL.

Another 20+ goal campaign could propel Duclair’s earning potential into the $4MM range annually. Mike Hoffman, who has scored 27 and 29 goals respectively the last two seasons, inked a four-year deal with an AAV of more than $5MM per season. On the heels of back-to-back 21-goal campaigns, Chris Kreider also landed a four-year pact, his worth $18.5MM in total. Kreider was coming off his second contract, Hoffman his ELC. Based on experience, Hoffman would be the better comparable but the goal-scoring numbers are likely to match up better with Kreider. Either way, if Duclair can match or exceed his 2015-16 production this season, a $4MM+ AAV on a new contract would be realistic.

Sam Bennett (Calgary) – Bennett, the fourth overall selection in the 2014 entry draft, posted an 18-18=36 scoring line as a rookie with the Flames in 2015-16, while playing the entire campaign as a 19-year-old. Along with the aforementioned Gaudreau and Sean Monahan, Bennett is part of a strong nucleus of young talent the Flames are counting on to lead the club into Stanley Cup contention.

Assuming an uptick in performance given Bennett now has a full year of NHL experience under his belt, it will be interesting to see how the Flames handle his restricted free agency. They’ve already locked up Monahan to a rich long-term extension and seem to want to do the same for Gaudreau. If they elect to go the same route with Bennett, he’ll likely need to do much better than 36 points to earn a contract in the same ballpark as Monahan’s.

Instead, perhaps a two-year bridge deal similar to the one Kevin Hayes received this summer makes more sense for the two sides. Hayes, who has tallied 81 points in 158 NHL games, inked a two-year pact worth $2.6MM per. That deal might be a fair comparable for Bennett assuming a 40 – 50-point output in 2016-17. A bridge deal also allows Bennett to further prove he can be a top-line player in the league.

Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton) – There was thought that perhaps the Oilers rushed Draisaitl to the NHL and possibly hindered his long term development based on the German pivot’s dreadful rookie year. After being chosen third in the 2014 draft, Draisaitl debuted in the NHL, appearing in 37 games during the 2014-15 campaign and scoring just 9 points and finishing with a -17 plus-minus rating.

Thankfully for Edmonton, Draisaitl demonstrated his career trajectory is firmly pointed upwards after an impressive sophomore season in which he tallied 51 points in 72 contests and improved his plus-minus rating to a -2. If he should continue to show that level of improvement, Draisaitl could land in the same territory as Monahan and Nathan MacKinnon each did coming off their ELCs; namely in the range of $6MM annually. Monahan is coming off back-to-back 60-point campaigns while MacKinnon sandwiched a mediocre second season (38 points in 64 games) between a 63-point debut and a 2015-16 almost identical to Draisaitl’s in terms of production (52 points in 72 games). If Draisaitl can produce in the neighborhood of 60 – 65 points in his platform year, $6MM annually may well be within reach.

Tyler Toffoli (Los Angeles) – Toffoli has improved steadily over his three full NHL seasons, seeing his goal totals increase from 12 his rookie season to 23 in year two and finally to a team-leading 31 last season with the Kings. He also led the league in plus-minus rating with a +35.

Toffoli won’t turn 25 until late in the 2016-17 campaign suggesting he has several more prime years remaining. He is entering the final season of a two-year deal with an AAV of $3.25MM and should be in line for a lucrative long-term pact. Two recent extensions signed by RFA-eligible players that could set the bar for a Toffoli deal are the contracts inked within the last several months by Filip Forsberg (six years with an AAV of $6MM per) and Mike Hoffman (four years with an AAV of $5.1875MM). If Toffoli produces season scoring totals in 2016-17 similar to those of this past campaign, he should be able to command something between what Hoffman and Forsberg are earning on each of their respective deals.

 

Snapshots: Vesey, Rangers, Sabres

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The New York Post’s Brett Cyrgalis and Ryan Lazo write that if other teams or fans are waiting for an apology from the Rangers regarding their signing Jimmy Vesey, they’ll be waiting for awhile. Cyrgalis and Lazo detail the chase of Vesey as well as the reaction of Rangers general manager Jeff Gorton once he saw Vesey’s number on his caller ID. Said Gorton via the Post:

I was glad to see the caller ID and the Boston number, so I hurried to answer it. When he said, ‘Hi, it’s Jimmy Vesey. I made my decision and I’d like to come to New York,’ I can’t remember exactly what I did, but I probably had a pretty exciting comeback for him. Probably can’t say it in public.” 

Meanwhile the duo writes that it can’t be predicted what impact Vesey will have immediately, but his friendships with Kevin Hayes and Chris Kreider will ease his transition to the NHL game. The more interesting part of the article is noting how players like Hayes and Vesey, spurning the teams that drafted them, could give future teams caution in drafting up and coming college players. Of all the people involved, Lazo and Cyrgalis write that Nashville general manager David Poile has every right to feel burned, but that could be more the norm, than the exception with college players. At least Poile was able to salvage a third round pick for Vesey.

A little about that team who traded the third round pick for Vesey’s rights:

  • Sabres fans angry about the Jimmy Vesey outcome are certainly justified, but WKBW’s Matt Bove writes that Buffalo will be just fine without the Hobey Baker Trophy winner. Between Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhardt, and Ryan O’Reilly just to name  a few, Bove reports that Sabres fans have an awful lot to be excited for in the 2016-17 season. Despite being in a rebuild, Bove notes that the team will continue to grow together and that fans should definitely be ready to tune in for playoff games, perhaps as early as this upcoming season.

Metro Notes: Rangers, Zibanejad, Buchnevich, Gagner, Cizikas

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Today is New York Rangers Day on the Pro Hockey Talk section of NBC Sports and they’ve got several posts up focusing on the Blueshirts. Included among them, Jason Brough lists the newly acquired Mika Zibanejad as the New York Ranger “under pressure” for the 2016-17 season.

Zibanejad was acquired from Ottawa in exchange for Derick Brassard, the Rangers leading goal scorer and second leading point producer. The expectation is Zibanejad, while perhaps not completely replacing Brassard’s offensive production, will be a more well-rounded player. Zibanejad played in all situations for the Senators, averaging 1:25 per game killing penalties and another 2:30 on the power play this past season. The Blueshirts struggled on the penalty-kill and it’s hoped Zibanejad will give the team another quality forward option when down a man.

Zibanejad was certainly the biggest name the Rangers have imported this summer after the disappointing end to their season. With hopes of returning to Stanley Cup contender status, the club will need Zibanejad to produce and play well in his first year on Manhattan.

More on the Rangers and other clubs in the NHL’s Metro Division….

  • In the same piece, Brough discusses Rangers top prospect Pavel Buchnevich and where he might fit into the lineup, assuming of course he makes the team out of camp. Despite being listed as a LW on the team’s official roster, Brough suggests the Rangers could line up the left-handed shooting Buchnevich on the RW, opposite Chris Kreider and next to Derek Stepan. Head coach Alain Vigneault is not afraid to mix and match his lines or to give the line(s) playing well more ice time. Even if on paper Buchnevich is on the 3rd line, it’s still quite possible he’ll see plenty of ice time. As long as he’s getting top-9 minutes he should be fine. What’s more important is developing chemistry with at least one other forward (Vigneault sticks to pairs when assembling his forward units) and that his minutes are sheltered to keep him away from the opponent’s best players as often as possible.
  • Staying in New York, Casey Cizikas spoke with the Islanders team website and answered questions regarding his new five-year extension, among other topics. The Islanders took a fair amount of criticism for doling out $3.35MM annually to a player who is considered primarily a 4th liner and penalty-killer. But that’s perhaps understating his actual value to the club. One, he averaged 12:41 of ice time this past season, whereas most 4th line players see about 8 – 10 minutes per game. Second, head coach Jack Capuano trusts Cizikas on the ice late in games when the outcome is undecided. Maybe we look back in a few years and see this contract as an overpay, but today, for what he brings to the club, the signing is at least defensible.
  • The Columbus Blue Jackets recently inked veteran pivot Sam Gagner to a one-year deal worth $650K. In this post by Aaron Portzline of The Columbus Dispatch, Gagner says the reason he signed with the Blue Jackets is that they offered him the opportunity to “re-establish” himself as a quality NHL player. In fact, he passed on offers from at least four other clubs to take the deal with the Jackets. Gagner, who had netted at least 40 points six different times and never previously finished with fewer than 37 points in any season, slumped to a career-worst 16 points last year, skating primarily on the 4th line for the Flyers. With head coach John Tortorella seemingly preferring to use Boone Jenner on the wing and with only the oft-injured Brandon Dubinsky a sure bet to see top-six center minutes – assuming he stays relatively healthy of course – this does present Gagner an excellent chance to rebuild his value. The Jackets boast some quality talent up front – Brandon Saad, Jenner, Scott Hartnell and Cam Atkinson come to mind immediately – so Gagner will get to play with some skilled players. By the end of the 2016-17 campaign, Gagner might prove to be the biggest bargain of free agency.

 

Snapshots: Marchand, Kreider, Monahan, Gaudreau

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Joe Haggerty reports that the Bruins and forward Brad Marchand are inching closer to a deal and that all signs point to something getting done sooner rather than later. While on Boston’s 98.5 The Sports Hub with Toucher and Rich, Haggerty indicated that while the asking price is hefty, Marchand and the Bruins have a strong mutual interest in one another. He points to Marchand’s recruitment of David Backes, as a paramount reason Marchand is in no hurry to leave Boston. Further, Haggerty writes that the Bruins wouldn’t want to let go of a player who plays in any situation on the ice and is still in his late 20’s. He also points out his knack for goal scoring as 37 of his 61 points last season ended up in the back of the net. While he won’t come cheap, Haggerty expects the B’s to pony up.

In other news around the league:

  • Larry Brooks reports that Chris Kreider is approaching the 2016-17 season with a new mindset–one that will get him more on the scoresheet and less into his own head.  Brooks writes that Kreider says he “knows the type of player he wants to be.” Brooks recalls a NY Post article last season where Kreider lamented his inability to play well on a given night, revealing a bruised psyche.
    Too often, Brooks reports, Kreider was not on the scoresheet and failed to play with “authority,” on the ice. Brooks points to the crease crash with Carey Price during game one of the 2014 Eastern Conference Finals as a possible turning point in Kreider’s net presence. Kreider injured Price on the play when he slammed into the goaltender after being tripped on a breakaway. Brooks wonders, as he puts on his amateur psychologist hat, if that moment scared Kreider away from driving harder to the net.
    Despite the psychological concerns, Kreider didn’t fall off in goal production (21) and only slightly fell below his 2014-15 numbers, where he had 46 points (21-25) compared to his 43 points (21-22) in 2015-16. Perhaps the four-year, $18.5MM investment the Rangers made with him could serve as another buoy to Kreider’s confidence.
  • The Calgary Flames are still trying to put deals together for restricted free agents Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan writes NBC’s Joey Alfieri. Calgary general manager Brad Treliving says that there is “no real update there” and that the Flames will keep plugging away to get a deal done. Both forwards are considered the foundation of the Flames offense and will not come at a cheap price, though Monahan did indicate he would take a discount from the fair market price. What should excite Flames fans is that both Monahan and Gaudreau are seeking long term deals–guaranteeing a pairing of high scoring forwards in the Calgary fold for years to come.

Boston Bruins Depth Chart

New York Rangers Depth Chart

Calgary Flames Depth Chart

 

 

 

 

 

Metropolitan Notes: Buyouts, Mahoney, Schenn

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After finalizing the deal with Kevin Hayes this afternoon, the New York Rangers have come to terms with each of the four players who filed for salary arbitration this summer (Hayes, Chris Kreider, J.T. Miller and Dylan McIlrath) before any of them had a hearing. With it, comes an additional buyout window that will start on Monday and last for 48 hours.

In this window, the team may perform a buyout on a player who fulfills certain criteria. Many speculated during the last window that the team could buy out defenseman Dan Girardi, and as the Rangers move closer to the cap, this remains a possibility.  Girardi’s play has deteriorated over the past few seasons, and he carries a cap hit of $5.5MM for the next four years.

If the team were to buy out Girardi, they’d be paying him $10MM total, spread over eight years.  His cap hits would be as follows (via General Fanager):

2016-17 – $1.75MM
2017-18 – $2.75MM
2018-19 – $3.75MM
2019-20 – $3.75MM
2020-21 – $1.25MM
2021-22 – $1.25MM
2022-23 – $1.25MM
2023-24 – $1.25MM.

There has been no word from Rangers camp that Girardi is headed for a buyout, but we’ll keep an eye on the situation as it unfolds.  Here are some more notes from the Metropolitan division:

  • While there has been relatively little news out of Las Vegas since the city was granted an expansion franchise, Elliotte Friedman is hearing that the team is after Washington Capitals assistant general manager Ross Mahoney, and has asked the club for it’s permission to interview him.  While there hasn’t been any response from the Capitals, Mahoney worked with new Las Vegas GM George McPhee for over a decade in Washington and may see it as a new opportunity.
  • The last thing we heard about Brayden Schenn is that there has been “no progress of any kind” on a new contract, and the young forward is getting closer and closer to his arbitration hearing.  Each player so far that has been scheduled before Schenn’s July 25th hearing has come to an agreement, but so far it doesn’t sound like there is any movement from either camp.  The Philadelphia centerman is coming off his best year as a pro, one that saw him score 26 goals and 59 points in 80 games. His continued development will be a discussion point in arbitration, as the former fifth-overall pick has increased his point total each season of his career.

New York Rangers Re-Sign Kevin Hayes

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After signing Chris Kreider this morning to a four-year extension, the New York Rangers have come to terms with fellow restricted free agent Kevin Hayes, according to NHL analyst Aaron Ward. According to Ward’s source, the deal is for two seasons, at $2.6MM per.

After being selected in the first round of the 2010 Entry Draft, Hayes spent four years at Boston College in the NCAA, after which he became a free agent and chose to sign with the Rangers. In the two seasons since his transition from college, Hayes has put up solid scoring numbers, tallying 45 and 36 points, while playing in 79 games each season.

His deal represents the third time this summer the team has been able to lock up one of their young forwards, following Kreider and J.T. Miller in inking multi-year deals. Hayes, still just 24, will have a chance to move back up the depth chart in New York as Eric Staal and Viktor Stalberg both signed elsewhere.

After acquiring Mika Zibanejad the other day, the team has continued it’s push to get younger up front, and now has five 25-or-younger players expected to start the season with the club up front.

As General Fanager adds, since the Rangers have settled all four of their arbitration filings already, the team will now have a 48 hour bonus buyout window. For the updated depth charts, be sure to check out the Rangers’ Roster Resource page.

Rangers Re-Sign Chris Kreider To Four-Year Deal

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The New York Post reports that the New York Rangers have re-signed restricted free agent Chris Kreider to a four-year, $18.5MM deal.  The contract has an annual hit of $4.625MM. According to the report, it also buys out two years of his unrestricted free agency. Rangers beat writer Larry Brooks tweets that Kreider insisted on a four-year deal instead of five. Brooks also reports that it lowered the financial side of the deal, saving some cap room for New York.

The Rangers and Kreider agreed to the deal prior to the scheduled arbitration meeting at 9AM. Last season, Kreider had 43 points (21-22) in 79 games. In five playoff games, he had two goals.

The signing ensures another young forward strengthening the Rangers’ future writes James O’Brien. O’Brien notes that only Rick Nash (32) and Tanner Glass (32) are above age 30, while the younger core of Kreider, Derek Stepan, newly acquired Mika Zibanejad, Kevin Hayes, Mats Zuccarello, and J.T. Miller are all under 28. Only Zuccarello and Stepan are over 25.

Arbitration Tracker

New York Rangers Depth Chart

Arbitration Tracker

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Ten days ago, the NHLPA released the schedule for player and team-elected arbitration hearings. Since then, four hearing dates have come and gone with no hearings, with eight players agreeing to contracts to avoid the unpleasant process.

Here’s an updated list of all 24 players who were scheduled for an arbitration hearing:

Player Elected Filings:

Arizona Coyotes
Michael Stone – Stone and the tough-negotiating Coyotes have a hearing set for August 4.

Colorado Avalanche
Tyson Barrie – Hearing set for July 29. Barrie has been the subject of near-constant trade rumors this summer.
Mikhail Grigorenko – Agreed to a one-year, $1.3MM contract on July 20, just two days before the scheduled hearing.

Detroit Red Wings
Jared Coreau – Agreed to a two-year, $1.25MM contract on July 6, well before any hearings were scheduled.
Danny DeKeyser – Signed a six-year deal on July 26th, locking him up long-term for the Red Wings.

Minnesota Wild
Jordan Schroeder – The Wild signed Schroeder to a one-year, two-way deal on July 23rd worth $675K in the NHL and $275K in the AHL.

Nashville Predators
Petter Granberg – Signed a two-year, two-way deal worth $575K / $175K (300K guaranteed) in the first year, and $650K / $175K in the second.
Calle Jarnkrok – Signed a six-year, $12MM deal July 27th.

New York Rangers
Kevin Hayes – Signed a two-year, $5.2MM deal Friday afternoon, hours after Kreider.
Chris Kreider – The Rangers and Kreider agreed to a four-year, $18.5MM contract Friday morning, beating the scheduled 9am arbitration meeting.
Dylan McIlrath – The massive defender signed a one-year, $800k contract last week, beating his hearing by a week.
J.T. Miller – World Cup-bound Miller and the Rangers settled on a two-year, $2.75MM contract on July 13.

Ottawa Senators
Mike Hoffman – After a long negotiation, the Senators and Hoffman agreed to a four-year, $20.75MM deal on July 27th.

Philadelphia Flyers
Brandon Manning – Manning got an unexpected second year in his two-year, $1.95MM deal he signed on July 26th.
Brayden Schenn – Schenn and the Flyers agreed to a four-year deal worth $5.125MM AAV.
Jordan Weal – Acquired by the Flyers in the Vincent Lecavalier trade, Weal signed a one-year, two-way, $650K contract the day the arbitration schedule was released.

St. Louis Blues
Jaden Schwartz – The Blues signed their young star to a five-year, $5.5MM contract last week.

Tampa Bay Lightning
Alex Killorn – The clutch playoff performer signed a long-term extension over the weekend, agreeing to $4.45MM per year for seven seasons.
Vladislav Namestnikov – World Cup-bound forward signed a two-year deal worth $1.9375MM on July 26th, three days before arbitration hearing.

Toronto Maple Leafs
Frank Corrado – Toronto signed Corrado to a one-year, one-way deal worth $600K on July 25.
Peter Holland – Holland signed a one-year deal worth $1.3MM on July 25.
Martin Marincin – The promising young shut-down defenseman is scheduled for arbitration on August 2.

Washington Capitals
Marcus Johansson – Johansson agreed to a three-year, $4.58MM contract just minutes before his hearing was set to begin.

CLUB ELECTED FILINGS:

Detroit Red Wings
Petr Mrazek – Just before his hearing on July 27th, Mrazek and the Red Wings inked a two-year, $8MM deal. With Jimmy Howard still earning $5.3MM for next season, the duo is one of the more expensive in the league.

We’ve previously explained the arbitration process as part of our Capology 101 series. Check out our Mike Furlano’s articles on eligibility and the arbitration process.

Arbitration Breakdown: Chris Kreider

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With the clock ticking down, the New York Rangers and the camp for Chris Kreider have filed their respective briefs in advance of Friday’s scheduled arbitration hearing, as we earlier reported on Pro Hockey Rumors. The Rangers offered a figure of $3.2MM while Kreider has requested $4.75MM in salary for the 2016-17 campaign.

The apparently wide gulf is indicative of a typical negotiating ploy being utilized by both parties. Kreider’s side comes in on the high end while the club submits a lower number, each with the knowledge that arbitrators typically award a number comfortably between the two positions. Should this actually go to a hearing, and there is every reason to believe negotiations on a long-term deal are being conducted as we speak, the arbitrator likely would award a one-year salary of around $4MM, roughly near the midpoint of the figures exchanged.

If we operate under the supposition both sides are willing to do a long term deal, what would Kreider then be worth?

Kreider’s is an interesting case. Still just 25, the former Boston College standout and former first-round pick possesses a rare blend of size, speed and skill. The six-foot-three, 226-pound winger is among the fastest straight line skaters in the game today and creates numerous scoring chances due solely to his physical skills. When fully engaged, Kreider has the ability to dominate entire games with his speed and physicality.

Following a 21-goal performance during the 2014-15 campaign, it was believed Kreider might finally be realizing his vast potential and a 30-goal season was considered the logical next step in his development. But Kreider struggled with consistency in 2015-16, an all-too-frequent experience during his burgeoning career (and frankly one shared by many young players), and needed five tallies in his final eight games to match his 2014-15 output.

Still, 20-goal scorers in their prime and with additional offensive upside are not cheap. Fortunately, a couple of recent RFA signings can be used for comparative purposes to help determine just how much Kreider may be worth.

Kyle Palmieri recently inked a five-year deal with New Jersey that comes with an AAV of $4.65MM per season. Palmieri is coming off a better platform campaign than Kreider, tallying career highs in both goals with 30 and points with 57.

Meanwhile, Washington Capitals forward Marcus Johansson, avoided arbitration by agreeing to a three-year, $13.75MM contract which averages out to just under $4.6MM annually. Johansson finished the 2015-16 season with 17 goals and 46 points.

On the surface both would seem to serve as obvious comparables. And while their contracts certainly help us hone in on Kreider’s potential value, the big winger has some advantages over his peers that could boost his value.

First, even though Kreider’s 43-point 2015-16 output falls short of Palmieri (57) and Johansson (46), his 1.85 points/60 at five-on-five (5v5) scoring rate over the last two seasons is superior. Johansson has recorded a 1.68 points/60 at 5v5 and Palmieri comes in at 1.55 over that same time frame.

Second, Kreider already has extensive postseason experience and has excelled when it matters most. He’s potted 20 goals in 65 playoff contests since debuting during the 2011-12 postseason, scoring his first playoff goal a week before his 21st birthday. Palmieri has tallied seven goals in 33 postseason games. Johansson also has seven playoff goals, albeit in 56 contests.

The New York Rangers relatively quiet foray into free agency, and the recent trade of Derick Brassard to Ottawa for Mika Zibanejad, has left the Rangers with $10.65MM in cap space according to General Fanager. With only Kevin Hayes and Marek Hrivik remaining unsigned as RFAs, it seems reasonable to conclude the Rangers have the financial wherewithal to offer a deal in the range of $5MM annually for five years. This would allow the club to buy three unrestricted free agent seasons and lock up one of their top young players through his prime years at what could be a very affordable price should he ever meet his 30-goal potential. Even as a 20-goal scorer, the cost wouldn’t be too out of line with what is paid on the open market.

 

 

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