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Carolina Hoping For Darling Of A Season

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Carolina have been perceived as ’winners’ of this off-season, despite accomplishing only minor upgrades on paper. Outside of signing their own RFAs, Carolina acquired Marcus Kruger and Trevor van Riemsdyk in trades. In the free agent market, they acquired the services of senior Justin Williams via UFA. Although solid acquisitions, Carolina was nowhere near a contender prior to these transactions. So to what do we attribute the grand sense of optimism in and around Raleigh?

Summarizing Adam Gretz of NBC Sports: Scott Darling. Darling was acquired back in April after the Blackhawks were eliminated from playoff contention. Subsequently, the team relieved itself of Eddie Lack’s services by offloading him to the Calgary Flames, while relegating long-time Cane Cam Ward to the backup role. Gretz rightfully spotlights Darling as a potential saviour to the team in the short-term. Darling certainly has the credentials to backstop an NHL team, as his career .924 save percentage is quite impressive. Last year, he tallied a 18-5-5 record – he seems ready to perform. Gretz also showcases the fact that Carolina allowed the second-least amount of shots against in the past three seasons (behind Los Angeles), while the goals-against-average was on the lower end of the middle pack. He points to the success of Carey Price on a middling Canadiens squad as rationale to hope for a resurgence in the standings.

Although Gretz is correct in assuming Carolina will likely improve, it doesn’t necessarily ensure a playoff berth. In the Metropolitan division, even the Islanders’ 94 points were insufficient to land the team Spring hockey. Four teams (Washington, Pittsburgh, Columbus, NY Rangers) all finished above 100 points. The Hurricanes finished with 87. Although Victor Rask and Sebastien Aho are nearly certain to have improved outputs, the competition remains fierce. The team will need to avoid multiple game losing streaks and start the season off on the correct foot. Although impressive down the season’s stretch, Carolina couldn’t clinch their first berth since 2009. If coach Bill Peters is to remain in his current position, he will need quick, inspiring success in 2017.

Although an 8-point improvement is certainly within the realm of possibility, Carolina will need to rely on health and the steady progression of its young players. Elias Lindholm and Teuvo Teravainen could both push for 20 goals, and Aho could easily become a star. If tides turn for the worse, however, expect GM Ron Francis to be proactive in his approach, despite the re-assuring words provided to Chip Alexander of the News & Observer. Francis certainly has room to be active on the trade market as well, with 8 upcoming free agents (4 UFA, 4 RFA) in 2018, and a wealth of space to maneuver. With an astounding $17.2 MM in space, it will nevertheless be difficult for Francis to successfully lobby for the acquisition of a large contract, considering the tenuous owner situation. Still, ownership should allow its GM marginal leeway in the hopes of catapulting the Canes into the the post-season. If Francis does go on the hunt for additional roster players, it would likely take the form of additional scoring or a veteran defender. Those first few months in Raleigh very well could determine the season’s trajectory, so those who are hungry for movement might look toward the tar heel state for early action.

The Signing Bonus: Rise Of The Buyout-Proof Contract (A Reprise)

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This article was originally published in July of 2016, but seems extremely relevant a year later. Most of the players discussed inside underachieved in their first season, and again we saw signing bonuses handed out like candy this summer. Included at the bottom is an update with new contracts from this offseason.

The life of an NHL agent is tough. As the league continues to tweak (or totally overhaul) their CBA each few seasons, changing contract regulations and offering teams different ways of structuring deals, agents are always trying to find ways to circumvent them and get the best offers for their clients.

With teams becoming more and more willing to use buyouts to rid themselves of the horrible contracts that they sign on July 1st – famously a day of simultaneous excitement and regret – agents around the league needed to find a way to protect their clients from losing out on a third (or sometimes two-thirds) of the salary the sides agreed on.

The most recent buyout window, which lasted from June 15th to 30th, saw a dozen NHL players bought out, including household names like Thomas Vanek and Dennis Seidenberg. While some fans may see this as an opportunity for a player to earn two contracts at the same time – Vanek was signed on by Detroit for $2.6MM on July 1st, more than the $1.5MM he surrendered in his buyout – most take it as a personal slight, an indictment of their play or character. Regardless, agents continue to try and secure guarantees for their clients, instead of leaving the power in the hands of the league’s general managers.

"<strongEnter the signing bonus, this summer’s contract-du-jour. All across the league, big name free agents have inked deals that will see them paid almost entirely in signing bonuses, with very little actual salary being given out each season.  Take Loui Eriksson for instance:

2016-17 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $7MM
2017-18 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $7MM
2018-19 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $6MM
2019-20 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $4MM
2020-21 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $3MM
2021-22 – Salary: $3MM, Bonus: $1MM

While Eriksson’s cap-hit sits at $6MM per year, he’ll make more than that in bonuses alone each of the next three seasons. There are a couple of reasons why this would benefit the player.

For one, everyone loves getting a big check rather than a weekly salary – who would turn down a piece of paper with six zeros?  As any economist will tell you, money in hand is worth more than money promised to come, and just as teams in other sports are deferring payments for this reason long into the future, having money up front is actually more valuable for the player in question.

It’s in the buyout rules that the contract really holds value though, as – hinted at by the title – these contracts are basically buyout-proof.  Under the current CBA, buyouts are calculated by taking two-thirds of the remaining salary owed, not including signing bonuses, and spreading it out over twice the remaining contract length. The new cap hit is determined by subtracting the savings from the average annual value of the deal which includes signing bonuses.

This means that if the Canucks were to want to buy out Eriksson after say, the third year of his new deal, they’ll only be saving $333K of cap hit in 2020-21, an insignificant portion of the $6MM number. That last season of $3MM is a bit better for the Canucks (they would save $2MM of his cap hit), but structuring it this way almost guarantees that Eriksson will collect at least $35MM of his deal – more than 97%. It’s just not worth it to buy him out any sooner than his final year.

"<strongAndrew Ladd, Milan Lucic, Kyle Okposo all signed deals heavily impacted by signing bonuses, protecting them against a buyout through all but the very end of their agreements.  Even Matt Martin, a career fourth liner secured a $10MM deal that is 65% bonus.  He’ll only be collecting $750K in salary in years three and four of the deal.

While this doesn’t necessarily mean trouble for clubs around the league, you can bet the owners and NHLPA will take a look at it when negotiations begin on the new CBA.  The current agreement expires in 2022, though the two sides have the option to end it a year earlier.

Just as the league has used cap recapture and contract limits to close loopholes in the past, be sure that if they want to continue to have the option to buyout bad contracts they’ll remove this option from the equation.  Creating a rule that would make signing bonuses only be able to hit a certain percentage of each season’s salary would be the easy fix, but expect push-back from the NHLPA.

Even if they do end up closing it, agents will work on another way to get their clients the best possible guarantee; they always seem to be one step ahead of the league.

This summer, signing bonuses have taken off even further. Carey Price’s eight-year extension with the Montreal Canadiens is over 80% signing bonuses, with the goaltender making a maximum of $2MM in salary per year. A $10.5MM cap hit through age-38 will be impossible to buy out, offering almost no cap savings. The Blackhawks face a similar situation with Brent Seabrook, whose 2015 contract is looking worse and worse, and provides little incentive for a buyout.

Interestingly, the Nashville Predators have continued in their practice of avoiding signing bonuses altogether. After signing Filip Forsberg to a bonus-free deal last summer, both Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson have taken similar structures in their long-term extensions this year. GM David Poile has taken much of the risk off the table even as he allocated many of his resources to his trio of young forwards. Though they pose little risk of age-decline, all three carry large enough cap hits to really hurt the Predators if they were to take a step backwards in their development. It’s hard to see any deserving a buyout, but the option is still there.

Alexander Radulov may be the biggest example among 2017 unrestricted free agents, as his contract with the Dallas Stars is both front-loaded and filled with signing bonuses. Radulov will earn just $13.25MM in salary over the next five seasons, making it difficult to buy out even as he enters his mid-thirties. For a player who has a relatively short track record of success in the NHL, it may quickly turn into a problem if he starts to feel the draw of father time.

Montreal Signs Carey Price To 8-Year Extension

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The Montreal Canadiens have announced that they have signed goaltender Carey Price to an eight-year, $84MM extension with a $10.5MM AAV, according to Elliotte Friedman. The deal won’t kick in until the 2018-19 season and will make the 29-year-old goalie the highest paid player in Montreal Canadiens history, according to Sportsnet’s Eric Engles. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun tweets that $70MM of the $84MM will come though a signing bonus, which are in place in case there is a lockout, according to Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington. It also means that’s more money for Price down the road if they choose to buy him out, according to NHL Network’s E.J. Hradek.

For Price, his $10.5MM AAV will briefly be tied for the highest in the NHL, according to Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston. He is currently tied with Blackhawks’ Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. However, that will only last until Edmonton Oilers’ Connor McDavid signs his expected $13.25MM extension shortly.

Price will be locked up now until the 2025-2026 season with this deal.  Considered by many to be the best goaltender in hockey, the goaltender has a 270-185-55 record. He boasts an goals against career average of 2.40 and has been even better in the past few years, finishing this year with a  2.23 in 62 games with a .923 save percentage. His best season was the 2014-15 year when he won both the Hart Memorial Trophy and the Vezina Trophy after a season in which he finished with a 1.96 GAA and a .933 save percentage in 66 games.

While Price wasn’t set to be a free agent until next year, locking up their franchise goaltender long-term is one less thing to worry about. While the new contract will not come into play for another year, the team will new cap concerns starting a year from now. Montreal currently has $53MM tied up in just 14 players next year.

NHL Awards Preview

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Caught up in the excitement of the Expansion Draft, it’s easy to forget that there is also an awards show tonight. Yes, the best trophy in all of sports, the Stanley Cup, has already been presented to the Pittsburgh Penguins, as has the Conn Smythe Trophy for playoff MVP to their captain, Sidney Crosby. Crosby also already locked up the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy for the most regular season goals. Edmonton Oilers wunderkind Connor McDavid captured the Art Ross Trophy for the most regular season points as well. Braden Holtby locked up the William M. Jennings Trophy already too, as the Washington Capitals allowed the least amount of goals against in the regular season. Yet, all three of these players and many more still have a lot on the line tonight. Here are the nominees for tonight’s NHL Awards:

Hart Trophy – Most Valuable Player

Sergei Bobrovsky, Columbus Blue Jackets

  • Star goalie helped to lead the Blue Jackets to their best record in franchise history, all while topping the league in save percentage (.931) and goals against average (2.06)

Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins

  • The NHL’s leading goal-scorer and back-to-back winner of the Stanley Cup and Conn Smythe Trophy

Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers

  • 20-year-old phenom led the league in points and assists and took his team from the draft lottery to the second round of the playoffs

Norris Trophy – Best Defenseman

Brent Burns, San Jose Sharks

  • Not only led all defenseman in scoring with 76 points, but finished ninth overall among some of the league’s most dynamic forwards. Can check with the best of them as well.

Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning

  • A down year for the Bolts was a career year for Hedman, who finished just four points behind Burns with 72, and led all blue liners with 56 assists

Erik Karlsson, Ottawa Senators

  • If this award had been voted on after the playoffs, it might have been a different result. The NHL’s best puck-mover may still pull it off behind a 71-point campaign and an improved defensive game

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Latest On Alexander Radulov’s Free Agency

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While the hockey world focuses on the expansion draft and upcoming entry draft, many fans in Montreal are turning their attention to next season and the possibility of an Alexander Radulov return to the Canadiens. The pending unrestricted free agent has been expected to re-sign with the Habs for some time, though things have gone silent in recent weeks as the team focused on other things. Today when speaking to TSN 690, Bob McKenzie explained that the two sides could still be pretty far away from each other in regards to contract length.

I’m sure that initially [Radulov] was looking for a home run; six, seven, eight years. Take your pick from one of those numbers, and I’m sure the Montreal Canadiens are saying ’not a chance in the world we’re going any longer–we’d like two but we know that’s not possible.’

Because Vegas is in a unique position, they’ve already got [Vadim] Shipachyov the 30-year old Russian center that they signed. They don’t have cap issues, they don’t have to worry as much about the dollars and cents…they’re in a unique position to maybe give Radulov more years and more money than the Montreal Canadiens could.

Signing Radulov would mean that Vegas forfeits their selection from the Montreal Canadiens, but after dealing away Nathan Beaulieu and protecting most of their core players, it could be an easy choice for the Golden Knights. McKenzie also points out that Montreal signing Radulov even for three years would hinge quite a bit on a potential Carey Price extension. Price hits the open market next summer, and could be looking at the biggest contract of all-time among goaltenders. After adding Jonathan Drouin on a six-year deal, money could get very tight for Montreal in a hurry.

It also will hinge on what happens with Alex Galchenyuk, who is up for a new contract but may have played his final game in Montreal. There has been much speculation about a possible trade for the young forward, especially after Drouin was acquired. Paying Galchenyuk a similar $5-6MM long-term deal would essentially eat up a third of the cap space Montreal has remaining, and they still need to make at least one addition to their defense corps. Radulov may fit for next season in that scenario, but going forward would be even tighter.

Thursday Trade Talk: Dumba, Brodin, Galchenyuk, Hjalmarsson

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The Minnesota Wild find themselves the center of trade speculation, with Matt Dumba and Jonas Brodin headlining the rumors according to the Star Tribune’s Michael Russo. Wild general manager Chuck Fletcher has received “quality trade offers” revolving around Dumba and Brodin. It’s no secret that the Wild have difficult decisions to make before they make their final choices for the expansion list. According to Russo, it’s prudent to deal either Dumba or Brodin since Jared Spurgeon and Ryan Suter will take up two of the three slots for protected defenseman. Instead of losing one for nothing, Fletcher is listening in on trade offers, and one such team Russo sees as being targeted is Montreal. The player they’re most likely targeting? Alex Galchenyuk.

  • TSN’s Ken Campbell writes that with the Canadiens acquiring Jonathan Drouin today, it likely means that Galchenyuk “won’t be back” in Montreal next season. Campbell adds that Galchenyuk is actively being shopped and Campbell figures that the target will be a young defenseman. With Carey Price in need of an extension, and the Montreal brass wanting to avoid “drama” in getting that extension, Galchenyuk would fetch the young d-man that would entice Price to stay and also fill a need for the Canadiens.
  • The Chicago Tribune’s Chris Hine goes through a number of players who have been the subject of trade rumors. On the issue of Marcus Kruger, Hine writes that the veteran center is “all but gone” and that defenseman Trevor van Riemsdyk is all but certain to join him with Vegas being the likely destination. Kruger would be dealt while van Riemsdyk would be selected in the draft. Regarding a core player who could be traded, Hine opines that Niklas Hjalmarsson could be the choice to move. However, Hine points out that Hjalmarsson has a partial no-trade clause and would only accept a trade to 10 teams. Hine writes that a source within the organization indicated that the Hawks have not asked Hjalmarsson to do this.

Deadline Approaches To Ask Players To Waive No-Movement Clauses

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On the heels of yesterday’s report that both Keith Yandle and Dion Phaneuf had been asked to waive their no-movement clauses in order to be exposed for the upcoming expansion draft, speculation is running rampant around the league on who else will be asked. Below is the full list of players who currently require protection due to their clauses. The deadline to submit a request to a player is 4pm CDT today, while the player must inform the team of his decision by the same time on Friday June 16th. Because the Stanley Cup Finals ended last night, Nashville and Pittsburgh will not receive an extension and will need to submit their requests at the same time as every other team.

Elliotte Friedman was on Sportsnet radio today and mentioned that the Anaheim Ducks have spoken with Kevin Bieksa about possibly waiving his clause, something examined at length in our recent Ducks Expansion Primer.

Anaheim (4)
Kevin Bieksa — Expected to be asked.
Ryan Getzlaf
Ryan Kesler
Corey Perry

Arizona (1)
Alex Goligoski

Boston (4)
David Backes
Patrice Bergeron
Zdeno Chara
David Krejci

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Offseason Keys: Montreal Canadiens

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While the expansion draft is set to headline a busy NHL offseason, there are still several other storylines for each team in the months ahead. Here is a closer look at what lies ahead for the Montreal Canadiens.

After a tough season that saw them out of the playoffs, Montreal made several changes last season, most notably being the Shea Weber – P.K. Subban swap.  The team got off to a franchise-best start and rode that to a division title but it wasn’t enough to get them far in the playoffs as they were eliminated in the first round by the Rangers.  Now, GM Marc Bergevin is faced with retooling the roster once again, though likely not with as significant of moves compared to last summer.  Here are some of the key things on his to-do list.

Extension For Price

While John Tavares has garnered the most headlines among those that are a year away from being eligible for unrestricted free agency, goaltender Carey Price is also in that situation.  Like Tavares, Price is Montreal’s franchise player and they can ill-afford to let him leave for nothing in return.  Bergevin indicated in his end-of-season press conference that trading him is not an option that’s on the table either.

Apr 1, 2017; Tampa, FL, USA; Montreal Canadiens goalie Carey Price (31) looks on against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the second period at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY SportsThat just leaves one option and that’s to find common ground on an extension.  Price’s case is a particularly interesting one as his new deal will likely be a precedent setter around the league.  Currently Henrik Lundqvist of the Rangers has the highest cap hit among goaltenders league-wide at $8.5MM and Price is expected to come in above that.

As is the case with all top players, the argument of taking a little less to ensure there’s enough money left to spend on other needs will undoubtedly come up.  But if Price and agent Gerry Johannson aren’t amenable to that, Bergevin doesn’t really have much of a leg to stand on given Price’s importance to the team.  It’s expected that both sides will look to get an extension done as close to July 1st as possible so the question here will be how much more than his current $6.5MM cap hit will Price receive on this next contract.

Make A Decision On Galchenyuk

Five years ago, Montreal drafted Alex Galchenyuk as the third overall pick, touting him as their center of the future.  Fast forward to today and his long-term position is still up in the air.  While they have tried him down the middle at times, he has been moved back to the left wing every time before too long.  Both Claude Julien and former coach Michel Therrien have expressed some concern about his two-way game which has in part overshadowed his offensive production.

Galchenyuk now finds himself as a restricted free agent with arbitration eligibility, something that agent Pat Brisson has suggested as a route they may be interested in taking.  The 23 year old dealt with a knee issue this past season and ended his year on a sour note as he was held without a goal in the playoffs while spending some time on the fourth line.  From their perspective, a one year ‘prove it’ deal may be better for Galchenyuk than signing a long-term deal now.

From Montreal’s standpoint, they need to make a decision as to whether or not he’s still viewed as a top line center of the future or if he is a winger moving forward.  There’s also some question as to whether he is still part of their future plans or if the time may be right to trade him.  Before they even approach contract discussions (short-term or long-term), those are a couple of key questions that need to be answered making his situation one to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Address Their Center Concerns

Montreal’s depth down the middle has quickly become an area of concern especially since Galchenyuk hasn’t slid into the center ice position like they were hoping for.  While Phillip Danault had a breakout season, that was offset by long-term veteran Tomas Plekanec having a tough year.  Those two are better served as third liners yet as things stand, they represent their top two.

Unfortunately for Bergevin, the free agent market isn’t exactly full of top six options down the middle let alone top liners.  Accordingly, he may be forced to turn to the trade route but again, available top six centers aren’t readily available and those that are will likely have a premium attached to them.  However, if they aren’t sold on Galchenyuk moving to center, they may very well have to bite the bullet if they intend to take that next step forward.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Snapshots: Price, Johansen, Cincinnati

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Beginning on July 1, several notable players will be eligible to sign contract extensions ahead of the final year of their contracts. Connor McDavid is the biggest name, but Carey Price is in a similar stratosphere.

The superstar goaltender is entering the final year of his six-year, $39MM contract ($6.5MM AAV), signed back in 2012. Price has a no-move clause (NMC) which allows him to submit a list of 15-team trade list.

According to TSN’s Pierre LeBrun, Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin and Price’s agent Gerry Johansson will meet next week to begin discussions. The two have had some preliminary discussions at the World Championships earlier this month, but have not had any “real negotiations” yet. The two sides are reportedly aiming to have something ready for Price to sign on July 1.

The Price contract will have a big impact on the Canadiens’ plans going forward. While he could command in the neighborhood of $10MM, that would negatively impact Bergevin’s ability to bring in offensive help, something the Canadiens desperately need.

  • Nashville center Ryan Johansen appeared on TSN 1040 in Vancouver, and opened up about his season-ending injury and comments about Ducks shut-down center Ryan Kesler. Johansen took a hit from Josh Manson, and was going to pull himself out of the game when the game ended in overtime. By the time Johansen hit the showers, he was unable to walk and had emergency surgery just hours later. He’s expected to make a full recovery, which is good news considering the serious risks related to acute compartment syndrome. Regarding Kesler, Johansen said his only regret was not being able to shake the Ducks’ hands at the end of the series.
  • The Buffalo Sabres have found a new AA affiliate, signing an agreement with the Cincinnati Cyclones. The Sabres’ previous ECHL affiliate, the Elmira Jackals, folded earlier this year. The Cyclones were previously affiliated with the Nashville Predators organization. This isn’t the first time there has been an agreement between Buffalo and Cincinnati; back in the 1970s, the Sabres had the Cincinnati Swords as their AHL affiliate. With the AHL above them, the ECHL is generally low on NHL prospects; just four Sabres prospects played in Elmira last season.

Snapshots: Holtby, Ritchie, Vrana

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Washington’s Braden Holtby will get the start for Game 3 in Pittsburgh. He was yanked after surrendering 3 goals on just 14 shots through 2 periods. Philipp Grubauer didn’t fare much better, however, as he let in 2 of 9 himself in the final period. The decision to pull the reigning Vezina trophy winner was maligned following the game by commentators, such as the Washington Post’s Dan Steinberg who believed the move was “a sign of panic”. Holtby has struggled this post-season, not looking particularly strong in the first series against Toronto. His .911 save percentage these playoffs is certainly respectable but also easily his career low. It’s difficult to believe that his massive workload over the course of the season isn’t playing a factor in his drop-off in play. The netminder played an absurd 63 games this past season, which is difficult to defend from a coaching standpoint. His backup in Grubauer performed well above expectations, helping the duo capture the Jennings trophy. Additionally, the Capitals looked to be a lock for the post-season well before April, so why Holtby was subjected to yet another season of heavy lifting seems confusing. At least he didn’t play 73 games, like he did two seasons ago. One has to wonder if Carey Price, Sergei Bobrovsky, and Braden Holtby have all succumbed to fatigue to varying degrees, considering their individual struggles come playoffs. Regardless, Holtby will need to improve if Washington hopes to claw their way back into the series on the road.

  • Anaheim forward Nick Ritchie and defenseman Sami Vatanen are both potential options for tonight’s game against Edmonton. Ritchie is out with the flu, and Vatanen has been out with an upper body injury since Game 1 versus Calgary in the last round. Both took the ice for the optional skate this morning, but no further information was provided. Vatanen had been replaced by Korbinian Holzer, who struggled in the season with a very poor 40.4 Corsi For percentage, taking a huge step backwards from the previous season in terms of driving possession. Ritchie had been replaced by Jared Boll, the heavy right-winger who accumulated an abysmal 39.3 CF% on the season – one of the league’s worst – to go along with his 0 goals through 51 games. The re-addition of Ritchie would be huge for a team that has had difficulty penetrating the wall that has been Cam Talbot.
  • Washington prospect Jakub Vrana was scratched last night for the Hershey Bears. The 21 year-old left-winger is crafty with the puck and was projected to be an effective offensive force. The Czech has had trouble adjusting his style to the North American game, however. He was drafted 13th overall in 2014 and had a decent sophomore season when he played, earning 21 games up with the Capitals, notching 3 goals and 3 assists in that span. He was held pointless through 3 games in the Bears’ series against the Lehigh Valley Phantoms. Head coach Troy Mann was displeased with his unwillingness to engage physically and defend on the backcheck. His effort level is remarkably low for a prospect which was considered top-tier. Getting scratched at the AHL level of play doesn’t bode well for his future in the NHL, although stranger things have happened.

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