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Deadline Primer: Carolina Hurricanes

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With the trade deadline less than 24 hours away, we continue our closer look at the situation for each team.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?  Next up is a look at the Carolina Hurricanes.

The NHL Trade Deadline is tomorrow at 2:00PM CT. Not only have the Carolina Hurricanes yet to make a move, but there have hardly been any whispers of GM Ron Francis and company talking to to other teams. The Hurricanes are in a tough position with the deadline growing closer and closer. Carolina is in the thick of the Eastern Conference wild card race, three points behind the Columbus Blue Jackets for the final postseason spot, grappling for position with the New York Islanders and Florida Panthers. They also have an NHL-worst eight-year postseason drought to think about when considering their deadline position. At the same time, few would call the ’Canes lineup a true contender this season. Carolina is a bottom-ten team in both goals for and goals against with a -25 goal differential that ranks last among any team remaining relevant in postseason contention. So while the team is desperate to return to the Stanley Cup playoffs, they may be lucky to still even be in contention and could question giving up assets at the deadline without a real chance at a title run. The fact that the Hurricanes have had no presence on the trade market thus far speaks volumes about their own indecision on how to handle the 2018 trade deadline.

Record

27-25-10, seventh in the Metropolitan Division

Deadline Status

Standing pat

Deadline Cap Space

$72,699,714 in deadline cap space
49/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Draft Picks

2018: CAR 1st, CAR 2nd, CAR 3rd, CAR 4th, CAR 6th, CAR 7th, VGK 7th
2019: CAR 1st, CAR 2nd, CAR 3rd, CAR 4th, CAR 5th, CAR 6th, CGY 6th

Trade Chips

If the Hurricanes are sellers, then they have a few impending free agents with value to contenders. The main target would likely be Derek Ryan, who has had yet another strong season in Raleigh after breaking into the NHL seemingly out of nowhere. A versatile, two-way forward with strong possession abilities, Ryan is an ideal pickup for any team looking to add depth and fill out their bottom-six. Veteran Lee Stempniak is also a serviceable bottom-six forward who is no stranger to being dealt at the deadline and finding a role for himself on a new team. Of course, the big name that could move from the Hurricanes would be career keeper Cam Ward, the hero of Carolina’s magical Stanley Cup run in 2006. Ward is an impending free agent and, although he has taken the starting job back from newcomer Scott Darling, is not likely to stay with the ’Canes for much longer. There are one or two teams out there looking for relief in net and Ward could be an attractive target if made available. For anyone expecting the Hurricanes to “sell” players like Justin Faulk and Jeff Skinner, don’t hold your breath, at least at this deadline.

If the Hurricanes are buyers, they offer several promising young prospects and a near-full collection of draft picks to sellers. Blocked by a deep top-six with staying power, young defenseman Roland McKeown is becoming more expendable as the days go on. The highly-regarded 2014 second-rounder could use a change of scenery to somewhere with more opportunity and Francis would be willing to deal him for the right return. Similarly, forward prospects like Valentin Zykov and Lucas Wallmark have been kicking around the AHL for long enough, without a real chance to showcase their NHL ability, that the value of their recent draft positions is beginning to wear off. The Hurricanes would be wise to move on from them if the right deal presents itself.

Players To Watch: F Derek Ryan, F Lee Stempniak, F Josh Jooris, D Klas Dahlbeck, G Cam Ward

Team Needs

1) A Star and A Starting Goalie

The main reason that the Carolina Hurricanes are most likely to stand pat at this deadline is because the two things they need to take the next step are the two things that are most difficult to find in hockey: a game-changing player and a top goaltender. It’s not unreasonable to think they can acquire these players somehow, but at the deadline it’s next to impossible. More than anything, the ’Canes need a legitimate first-line power center and that player simply isn’t available at this deadline. Maybe this summer, but not right now. The Darling experiment has been a failure, but there’s no one on the market who is a lock to outplay him long-term in net. Carolina’s two biggest needs are much easier to address in the off-season. Expect their efforts – and top trade assets – to be put to use then, rather than during the next 24 hours.

2) A Scoring Forward 

If, and it’s a big if, the Hurricanes decide to go for it this year and make a deal that significantly increases their odds of making the playoffs, they need to improve their scoring. The team is solid on the back end and the situation in net is what it is, but up front they have many nice complementary players, but lack that one player who can transform them into a cohesive unit (hence the need for a star forward). A player who can improve the team’s ability to put the puck in the net, not specifically a shooter or play-maker but simply a player with great offensive instincts, would be of interest to Carolina. An impending free agent or a player with term could be sought out; they certainly have the cap space to afford a long-term, expensive contract if need be. With a horrid playoff drought and a new, proactive owner, it’s definitely possible that Carolina could jump into the conversation for a Mike Hoffman or Max Pacioretty, but more likely than not, they save the assets needed to acquire either one for the summer trade market.

Cam Ward Accepting Of New Role In Carolina

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Ever since 21-year-old rookie Cam Ward led the Carolina Hurricanes to a Stanley Cup title in 2006, he has been the go-to guy in the Carolina net. That year, Ward shocked the world with a .920 save percentage and 2.14 goals against average in 23 playoff games en route to the championship and the Conn Smythe Trophy, despite having only 28 regular season NHL games under his belt prior. In 2011, Ward was an All-Star and even made a run at the Vezina Trophy behind a resume of the league’s most games played and saves and a .922 save percentage. Altogether, Ward is in the top ten among all active goaltenders in wins, saves, and point shares, signalling the important role that he has played in Raleigh for the better part of this century.

However, in recent years the story has been quite different. After posting five 30-win seasons in his first six full seasons, Ward has failed to reach that mark every year since before the 2012 lockout. His save percentage has held steady at below .910 in that span, while his quality starts percentage has topped 50% only once in the last five years. In fact, in the last five years, few goalies with a “starter” amount of games played have performed worse than Ward. For that reason, the Hurricanes constant has accepted that he is no longer the top net minder in Carolina. In speaking with Chip Alexander of the News & Observer, Ward acknowledged that the team’s acquisition of and extension of former Chicago Blackhawks backup Scott Darling likely signals the end of his time as a starter for the ’Canes. The young, up-and-coming team is loaded with talent and will be for years to come, but have been held back by their goaltending. By all accounts, Darling has been one of the best backups in the league the past couple of campaigns and is ready for a starting role. And so, Ward is ready for a backup role:

“I’m realistic… I understand the situation. I know he was brought in here to sign a four-year deal for pretty good money not to be a backup.

“I know where I am in my career. … Certainly I’m a competitive guy and I still want to be able to play and I’ll do whatever I can to earn that ice time, but I’m hopeful he can make that next step. He deserves that.”

“I thought it was a great move… I’ve heard nothing but good things about Scott Darling. .. I look at a guy who’s ready to take that next step.

“I’ve been very fortunate to be here as long as I have and to be a No. 1 guy for over a decade, so I think I have something to offer to him. I think I can offer him my experience and give him the support he needs to make that next step.”

Ward certainly seems to be taking his demotion well and that could be the key to helping Darling develop into a star keeper. In the past, the Hurricanes have attempted to challenge Ward by investing in promising backups like Justin Peters, Anton Khudobin, and most recently Eddie Lack – traded this summer to the Calgary Flames – and giving those players substantial ice time. However, in each case the competitive Ward was able to hold on to his job despite just middling play, as the trio all failed to play up to expectations and embrace the position battle. Now 33, Ward is entering the twilight of his career and, though he won his Cup and Conn Smythe in year one, has accomplished so much as the franchise leader in every goaltending category for the ’Canes. For the first time, Ward seems open to embracing his mentor role and playing second fiddle to the up-and-coming Darling. That guidance and veteran wisdom could do wonders for the young goalie, which in turn could help bring Carolina back into Cup consideration for the first time in almost a decade.

With that said, the ultra-competitive Ward isn’t about to stop working hard. He has seen young backups come and go before and, while this four-year, $16.6MM contract for Darling is a step above the rest, Ward will surely be ready to take back the reigns if need be. Should that happen, at least Carolina fans can rest easy knowing exactly what to expect from the career Hurricane.

Carolina Hoping For Darling Of A Season

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Carolina have been perceived as ’winners’ of this off-season, despite accomplishing only minor upgrades on paper. Outside of signing their own RFAs, Carolina acquired Marcus Kruger and Trevor van Riemsdyk in trades. In the free agent market, they acquired the services of senior Justin Williams via UFA. Although solid acquisitions, Carolina was nowhere near a contender prior to these transactions. So to what do we attribute the grand sense of optimism in and around Raleigh?

Summarizing Adam Gretz of NBC Sports: Scott Darling. Darling was acquired back in April after the Blackhawks were eliminated from playoff contention. Subsequently, the team relieved itself of Eddie Lack’s services by offloading him to the Calgary Flames, while relegating long-time Cane Cam Ward to the backup role. Gretz rightfully spotlights Darling as a potential saviour to the team in the short-term. Darling certainly has the credentials to backstop an NHL team, as his career .924 save percentage is quite impressive. Last year, he tallied a 18-5-5 record – he seems ready to perform. Gretz also showcases the fact that Carolina allowed the second-least amount of shots against in the past three seasons (behind Los Angeles), while the goals-against-average was on the lower end of the middle pack. He points to the success of Carey Price on a middling Canadiens squad as rationale to hope for a resurgence in the standings.

Although Gretz is correct in assuming Carolina will likely improve, it doesn’t necessarily ensure a playoff berth. In the Metropolitan division, even the Islanders’ 94 points were insufficient to land the team Spring hockey. Four teams (Washington, Pittsburgh, Columbus, NY Rangers) all finished above 100 points. The Hurricanes finished with 87. Although Victor Rask and Sebastien Aho are nearly certain to have improved outputs, the competition remains fierce. The team will need to avoid multiple game losing streaks and start the season off on the correct foot. Although impressive down the season’s stretch, Carolina couldn’t clinch their first berth since 2009. If coach Bill Peters is to remain in his current position, he will need quick, inspiring success in 2017.

Although an 8-point improvement is certainly within the realm of possibility, Carolina will need to rely on health and the steady progression of its young players. Elias Lindholm and Teuvo Teravainen could both push for 20 goals, and Aho could easily become a star. If tides turn for the worse, however, expect GM Ron Francis to be proactive in his approach, despite the re-assuring words provided to Chip Alexander of the News & Observer. Francis certainly has room to be active on the trade market as well, with 8 upcoming free agents (4 UFA, 4 RFA) in 2018, and a wealth of space to maneuver. With an astounding $17.2 MM in space, it will nevertheless be difficult for Francis to successfully lobby for the acquisition of a large contract, considering the tenuous owner situation. Still, ownership should allow its GM marginal leeway in the hopes of catapulting the Canes into the the post-season. If Francis does go on the hunt for additional roster players, it would likely take the form of additional scoring or a veteran defender. Those first few months in Raleigh very well could determine the season’s trajectory, so those who are hungry for movement might look toward the tar heel state for early action.

Upcoming UFA Goaltenders With Something To Prove

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Next year’s goaltending UFA crop may lack star power, but it does contain many interesting potential rehabilitation projects. This season provides those pending UFA goaltenders with an opportunity to turn things around and show teams that they are worth more than their current reputation belies. Whether it’s a former starter regulated to backup duties, or an aging veteran with just enough left in the tank, the following goaltenders can significantly improve their stock going into unrestricted free agency.

Jonathan Bernier – Colorado Avalanche – $2.75MM
The Colorado Avalanche signed the former Toronto Maple Leafs starter to a one-year deal worth $2.75MM this season to back up presumed starter Semyon Varlamov. Varlamov struggled last season, dealing with injuries and his worst stat line in his career. The Avalanche hope that Bernier can provide steady goaltending if Varlamov continues to slide or cannot shoulder a full starter’s load. If Bernier steps up and performs admirably, he could be in line for a starters position during the offseason. Last season saw Bernier player with the Anaheim Ducks and put up his best numbers in years. Part of that is the superior team in front of him, but it shows that given the proper tools, Bernier can be a serviceable starter in the league.

Eddie Lack – Calgary Flames – $2.75MM ($1.375 retained)
The Carolina Hurricanes traded Lack to the Calgary Flames this summer and agreed to retain 50% of his salary. Lack now has the opportunity to back up new Flames signee Mike Smith. Smith turns 36 this season, and will experience the injury woes that go along with veteran goaltenders. Lack will have an opportunity to step up and show teams that he still has the skills to become a starting goaltender. He is only two seasons removed from posting a .921 SV% and a 2.45GAA in 41 games for the Vancouver Canucks.

Ondrej Pavelec – New York Rangers – $1.3MM
Continuing with the reclamation projects backing up older veterans, Pavelec has a chance to show NHL GMs what he can do behind a very good team. In Pavelec’s ten year career he has seen the playoffs just once—with the Winnipeg Jets in 2014-15—and can benefit from the Rangers’ stacked defensive corps. Luckily, his bar is set low after his worst statistical season since 2008-09. Last season Pavelec played in just eight games, earning a .888 SV% and a 3.55 GAA. He was not much better the season before, with a .904 SV% and a 2.78 GAA. Mired by a reputation for being shaky and inconsistent, this may be Pavelec’s last opportunity to convince GMs to take a flier on the former 2nd round pick.

Cam Ward – Carolina Hurricanes – $3.3MM
Ward is over a decade removed from his Stanley Cup-winning playoff performance, but since then he has been the model of consistency. Unfortunately, he has been consistently average. And once again, Ward will have some true competition coming into camp. The Carolina Hurricanes signed former Chicago Blackhawks backup Scott Darling to a $4.15MM a year contract, signalling who the team prefers to earn the starting role going forward. Ward has already experienced this before with Eddie Lack, and eventually Lack was moved out to Calgary. This time, however, a decent season may not end with a new contract from the Hurricanes, but it will garner interest from other NHL teams.

Antti Raanta – Arizona Coyotes – $1MM
Raanta is the only goaltender on this list who is not a reclamation project. The Finnish netminder has backed up elite goaltenders Corey Crawford and Henrik Lundqvist, and now has the opportunity to take the starting reins in Arizona. The New York Rangers shipped Raanta alongside Derek Stepan to the Arizona Coyotes for Anthony DeAngelo and the 7th overall pick earlier this summer. Raanta is fresh off of a 30 games season where he earned a .922 GAA and a 2.26 SV%, significantly better than Lundqvist’s .910 SV% and 2.74 GAA. If Raanta can maintain his statline for a full season in Arizona, he will be in line for a large pay increase.

 

Should Vegas Corner Goalie Market?

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With the recent trade of Mike Smith to Calgary, the market for starting goaltenders is dwindling even further. An interesting dynamic for the Vegas Golden Knights as they choose their team will be whether they opt to select every quality goalie out there in order to flip them to other teams. There are quite a few available – Marc-Andre Fleury of Pittsburgh, Eddie Lack (and Cam Ward) of Carolina, Calvin Pickard of Colorado, Antti Raanta of New York, Petr Mrazek of Detroit, Roberto Luongo of Florida, Jaroslav Halak of the Islanders, Michal Neuvirth of Philadelphia, Peter Budaj of Tampa Bay, and Philipp Grubauer of Washington, with a few interesting prospects also exposed.  As we’ve seen in the past few seasons, dealing a goaltender for anything remotely resembling fair value can be an enormous challenge. The salary cap has really warped the value of a solid starting goaltender in a way that has not been totally beneficial to the players.

One down season and a tender’s value goes down quite heavily. The top ten goalies in the league always seem to find a home on the rare occasion they hit unrestricted free agency, but that has been a rare occurrence. Many might point to the 2010 Stanley Cup Final when they isolate a particular moment that the highly-paid goaltender became an oddity. In that Final, Michael Leighton, third-string for Philadelphia, faced off against the very pedestrian Antti Niemi, who was then  sacrificed for cap reasons. With the whole league watching, these teams ascended to hockey’s main stage with relative no names in the crease. While that moment may have been particularly damaging, the moment for me was the fiasco that was the Luongo and Cory Schneider trade saga in Vancouver, which lasted parts of 2 seasons. Then Canucks GM Mike Gillis had a terrible time finding a suitor for Luongo before finally being forced to ship Schneider off in the 2013 offseason for a 9th round pick. This too, was terrible value, considering that Schneider was one of the best young goalies in the league and coming off a scorching season where he had a .937 save percentage. This ordeal took place less than two years after Luongo had taken the team to its first Final since 1994. Granted, Luongo’s contract was considered a bit of an albatross, but it very publicly cemented the value of goaltenders on the trade market as minimal.

Looking forward to the present day, and the last two goaltenders have been traded for rather uninspiring returns. Arizona’s Smith only fetched a 3rd rounder, and Ben Bishop only netted a 4th from Dallas. GM George McPhee could end up hosting a goaltender buffet, with few paying customers. He would be wise to gauge the interest of other teams before deciding on their selections in net. They obviously want to draft a solid starter and a few young goaltenders as future cornerstones. They need to draft 3, and it’s difficult to envision them drafting less than 4 with the enticing names available out there. But if they decide to go into 5 or 6 goaltender territory, McPhee could manufacture a logjam that could be difficult to sort out. After all, only the WInnipeg Jets are truly desperate for a starting goaltender, and that’s assuming they don’t want one of Brian Elliott, Mike Condon, or another UFA to be their partner for Connor Hellebuyck. Philadelphia could be interested in a younger asset, and there are always teams who will desperately seek a starter mid-season when a keeper inevitably goes down to injury. That said, the market simply doesn’t favor the strategy of going all-in in net.

Metropolitan Division Offers Vegas Multiple Goalies, Project Players

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The Metropolitan Division was undoubtedly the most competitive last season, with 3 of the league’s top 5 points finishers within it, including the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Penguins. Some teams in the Metro have prepared poorly, while others look to take a minor hit and move on from expansion relatively unscathed. No major surprises exist outside of Brooklyn, where the Islanders took the crown for the most unorthodox and confounding strategy.

The Penguins seem to have known for quite some time that Marc-Andre Fleury was Vegas bound. GM Jim Rutherford balked at trade offers last off-season despite the goalie’s no-movement clause potentially complicating matters further down the line. The organization finally asked him to waive his clause in February, and both parties seem willing to move on. Rutherford did seem to be leaning toward the 7-3-1 model originally, but eventually opted to go with the 4-4 route to protect both Olli Maatta and Justin Schultz. If for whatever reason Fleury is not chosen, playoff performer Bryan Rust is almost certainly the claim. Columbus’ list is about what we expected, but it still seems strange to see Josh Anderson and Jack Johnson are left exposed. If there is a deal in place for a 1st round pick, as reported earlier by the Columbus Dispatch, Johnson is the likely selection. He’s still got a lot of talent, and with all his international experience, he could be a great leader for younger players in Vegas.

The Philadelphia Flyers made one of the smarter (if unexpected) decisions of the day and opted to protect Scott Laughton over assistant captain Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and the streaky Michael Raffl. Jordan Weal is still left exposed, and theoretically any of the three could be headed to Vegas. The Washington Capitals are absolutely going to lose a solid player, and it’s destined to be either the very promising defenseman Nate Schmidt or standout goalie Philipp Grubauer. The Capitals knew this was coming for a long time, but it can’t hurt any less to lose assets in this fashion. A possible scenario to watch out for is whether Vegas will pursue T.J. Oshie as a free agent in the short-term. They have first dibs on negotiations if they want to open that conversation, and he’s considered by many to be the top available UFA. The team doesn’t really need another goaltender, and their defense would survive without Schmidt, even with his incredible talent.

The New Jersey Devils arguably have the weakest roster on paper at the moment, and it shows with the potential selections Vegas need to consider. Mike Cammalleri is unproductive and overpaid, Beau Bennett has all but busted when he isn’t injured, Jacob Josefson scored one goal last season, and Devante Smith-Pelly is with his third club in as many years. The New York Rangers couldn’t move Antti Raanta and now it seems probable that Vegas will take advantage. Other options would include Jesper Fast and the very productive (27 goals) Michael Grabner, neither of whom is good enough to justify passing on the solid Raanta. No surprises here, but management certainly waited until the final hour to buyout Dan Girardi – which allowed them to utilize that 7-3-1 strategy effectively. Carolina will offer up one of the worst prizes to the Golden Knights, and Lee Stempniak is the only name that truly jumps out. Long-time goalie Cam Ward finds himself on the outs, as does Eddie Lack, but when the team moved for Scott Darling this fate was very foreseeable. Perhaps management will try to entice Vegas to claim one of the keepers and help their logjam along.

The New York Islanders seem to have botched their efforts today, but there may be machinations behind the scenes which could justify such a bizarre strategy. GM Garth Snow opted to protect only 3 forwards and 5 defensemen – the only team to do so. Even worse, one of the defenseman left unprotected was Calvin de Haan. Assuming there is no deal to take a blueliner in the works, Vegas could choose de Haan or their favorite from a large selection of intriguing forwards. Josh Bailey, Brock Nelson, and Ryan Strome are all available, and each provides a different skillset. McPhee could even take one of the league’s toughest bottom sixers in Casey Cizikas or a crafty, veteran Nikolai Kulemin. He has loads of options, and none of them are any good for an Islanders team who survive off their depth. Why Adam Pelech, with his 12 career points and 46.6% Corsi For in 2016-17, was worth protection over any of those names will surely be one of the draft’s greatest quandaries.

Vegas will get an opportunity to draft their starting two goaltenders from the Metro, and will have a wide assortment of options elsewhere. The Washington situation should be fun to speculate on, and trying to find a worthwhile pick in New Jersey could be an adventure for the Knights. Snow’s Islanders are just an incredible anomaly, and that list may draw some serious criticism.

Finals Notes: Rinne, Hagelin, Fisher

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Pekka Rinne has been quite poor through two contests in Pittsburgh with a horrid save percentage of .778. Headed home, the expectation is that he will get the nod to start Game 3 with a raucous home crowd behind him. But the 21 year-old backup Juuse Saros shouldn’t get his baseball hat fitted quite so securely. Predators coach Peter Laviolette has been known to take massive gambles with his goaltenders come playoffs, and he’s found success while doing it. Back in 2007, Martin Gerber was rightfully scratched in favor of Cam Ward, who had a phenomenal playoff resulting in a Stanley Cup Victory. In 2010, Laviolette benched veteran Brian Boucher to tap AHL journeyman Michael Leighton, who miraculously led the 8th-seeded Flyers to a Game 6 overtime against the Chicago Blackhawks in a Stanley Cup Final. Saros is young, to be sure, and he only has 22 NHL contests under his belt, not counting his minimal relief effort in Pittsburgh. Rinne is a former Vezina winner and by all standards has “earned” the right to start Game 3 in his home barn. That said, Ward only had 28 contests under his belt when Laviolette made him the starter. If Rinne were to somehow find the bench tomorrow, it could complicate his future in Smashville. Rinne only has two years remaining at $7 MM per season, but he has been absolutely central to GM David Poile’s strategy thus far.

  • Carl Hagelin isn’t happy to sit on the sidelines in Pittsburgh, as he was stated in an interview with the Tribune-Review. He’s frustrated with himself and his own performance, after only scoring one goal the entire playoffs and sitting out numerous contests. By all accounts, he has been a team player about the entire situation. He has never fully recovered from a lower-body injury, and the drop off in skating has been noticeable. Hagelin is having quite a different post-season than last, but his struggles didn’t begin in April. He potted only 6 goals and 22 points this season, with a shooting percentage of 4.7%. He looked out of sync with both Nick Bonino and Phil Kessel, and struggled to find his place following his demotion. The speed of Hagelin is still a deadly asset, but his play hasn’t warranted his $4 MM pricetag. When it comes time to protect players, Hagelin could theoretically find himself as a sacrificial lamb for Vegas to claim, with the dual purpose of saving cap dollars.
  • Nashville captain Mike Fisher could be considering retirement following this post-season, according to NBC Sports. He is entering the final year of his contract and will become an unrestricted free agent at the age of 37. He had a solid season in Tennessee, posting 18 goals and 24 assists, an improvement over his prior two outings. He had a rough statistical start to the playoffs, going pointless through three rounds of play although he provided amazing defensive play and special teams expertise. Fisher would most likely take a moderate paycut from his current $4.4 MM to remain in Nashville for at least one more season, but his decision could be impacted by the hectic life of his wife Carrie Underwood. If he opted to retire, it would leave Nashville in a difficult situation of replacing both their leader as well as a #2 center. It seems likely that a deal can be worked out by management, especially in light of Nashville’s lengthy, successful campaign.

Expansion Primer: Carolina Hurricanes

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

Going into the 2016-17 season, more people thought that the Carolina Hurricanes would be the worst team in the NHL than thought they would be a playoff team. Yet, the exciting, young ’Canes squad stayed in it until the end, only falling out of playoff contention in the final few games of the season. It was a completely unexpected performance from a team still lacking any major stars, but showed that their youthful nucleus can succeed without them.

Luckily for Carolina fans, perhaps no team in the NHL has a better chance of escaping the upcoming Expansion Draft unscathed than the Hurricanes. Not only does the teams youth protect many of their best players from being draft-eligible, but the team is in fact so young, that there are very few players total that can be exposed. With the league’s deepest young defense almost entirely intact with Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Noah Hanifin and pro prospects Haydn Fleury and Roland McKeown ineligible – each with two or fewer NHL seasons –  and star rookie Sebastian Aho also immune, the Hurricanes can use the rest of their protection slots to cover all their other important players and then some.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Jordan Staal (NMC), Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask, Elias Lindholm, Lee Stempniak, Joakim Nordstrom, Andrej Nestrasil, Teuvo Teravainen, Erik Karlsson, Phillip Di Giuseppe, Brock McGinn

Defense
Justin Faulk, Klas Dahlbeck, Ryan Murphy, Trevor Carrick

Goaltender
Scott Darling, Cam Ward, Eddie Lack, Daniel Altshuller

Notable Exemptions

Sebastian Aho, Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Noah Hanifin, Haydn Fleury, Roland McKeown, Derek Ryan

Key Decisions

The ’Canes have few decisions to make here. Up front, captain Jordan Staal must be protected due to his No-Movement Clause and his supporting cast of young scorers – Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask, Elias Lindholm, and Teuvo Teravainen – will surely join him. With 16 points in 57 games in 2016-17, 22-year-old Brock McGinn has also likely earned his spot on the team. This leaves one forward spot spot left, as Carolina will almost certainly use the 7/3 protection scheme. The odd men out will probably be consummate veteran Lee Stempniak and two-way forward Joakim Nordstrom, who took a step back this season anyway. Those two are the only remaining players that meet the two-forward exposure quota of players with 70 games played over the past two years or 40 games played this past season that also have term remaining on their contracts. Should the Hurricanes want to protect either one, they still have the option of extending restricted free agents Andrej Nestrasil or Phillip Di Giuseppe or impending UFA Jay McClement in the coming weeks, as the trio are only short on term to qualify for the quota. If they choose not to, the choice comes down to Nestrasil, Di Giuseppe, or minor league winger Erik Karlsson for the final spot, with little on the line.

On the blue line the choice is even easier. By re-signing Klas Dahlbeck recently, the Hurricanes secured their sacrificial lamb for Expansion. Dahlbeck qualifies to be exposed in accordance with the quota for one defenseman, taking All-Star Justin Faulk off the hook. Young defenseman Ryan Murphy and Trevor Carrick are literally the only other defenseman in need of protection with exactly two defensive spots open to do so.

In net, the decision has already been made. The Hurricanes secured their goalie of the future earlier this month, trading for former Chicago Blackhawks backup Scott Darling and giving him a four-year, $16.6MM deal. In doing so, Carolina also guaranteed that he would be their protected goalie in the draft, as they would not waste their time with such an investment just to let Darling be drafted away to Vegas. Instead, they’ll let the Golden Knights have their pick of long-time starter Cam Ward, high-end backup Eddie Lack, and prospect keeper Daniel Altshuller. With over $10MM tied up in Darling, Ward, and Lack next season, the Hurricanes hope the Knights take the bait, but even if they don’t, both Ward and Lack will be free agents next summer anyway.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

Jordan Staal (NMC)
Jeff Skinner
Victor Rask
Elias Lindholm
Teuvo Teravainen
Brock McGinn
Phillip Di Giuseppe

Defensemen

Justin Faulk
Ryan Murphy
Trevor Carrick

Goalie

Scott Darling

What is the worst case scenario for the Hurricanes? They could lose Stempniak and be left with over $10MM in goalies. That’s pretty much it. Yes, Stempniak scored 40 points last season, but he’s also 33 years old and has just one year left on his contract. The Hurricanes could replace him in free agency with ease. They also could simply re-sign another forward and protect him if they really want to. As for the goalie, Ward is a lifetime Hurricane and outplayed Lack by a slim margin last year. It really would not be all that bad to have him as a backup to first-time starter Darling next season. GM Ron Francis could surely sweeten a deal (if necessary) to have Vegas take Lack and, if not, should be able to find another suitor elsewhere.

If Stempniak does end up off the board though, is there really any other option for the Knights beyond goalie? At forward, Di Giuseppe gets the nod for the last protection slot over Nestrasil and Karlsson. Nestrasil is already on the outs in Carolina and Di Giuseppe has already passed him up on the depth chart. Karlsson has signed on to return to Sweden next season and will have no impact on the 2017-18 Hurricanes. Carolina is deep enough in prospects, such as Julien Gauthier, Nicolas Roy, Janne Kuokkanen, Warren Foegele, Aleksi Saarela and more that they can risk losing Karlsson without risking losing any sleep over it. On defense, Dahlbeck is the only contracted player that can be taken. While he did play in 43 games with Carolina last season, GM George McPhee will have plenty of quality defenseman to choose from in the Expansion Draft, and Dahlbeck simply doesn’t stand out as worth taking. The Hurricanes are so well protected from the wrath of the expansion process that even unrestricted free agent center Derek Ryan, who quietly put up 29 points in 2016-17 to the tune of $600K, is also exempt from selection, having come over from Europe just two years ago. Goalie seems to be the only real option and even if Altshuller is the pick, he is far from a promising prospect and not at the top of the Hurricanes’ prospect rankings in net. The Knights have few options when selecting a player from Carolina and none of them pose any threat to a team that is on the rise.

Offseason Keys: Carolina Hurricanes

at CDT | by 4 Comments

While the expansion draft is set to headline a busy NHL offseason, there are still several other storylines for each team in the months ahead. Here is a closer look at what lies ahead for the Carolina Hurricanes.

Slow and steady has seemingly been the mantra in Carolina over the past few years and at the end of the season, they started to show a possible sign of things to come with a very impressive late push for a playoff spot.  While they ultimately fell short of making the postseason, things are starting to look up for the Hurricanes who will be heading into next season with a new starter between the pipes in Scott Darling.  Here’s a look at what else may be on tap for GM Ron Francis.

Sort Out The Goaltending

Darling’s acquisition and new four year, $16.5MM contract solidifies him as Carolina’s starter for the foreseeable future.  However, the team still has both of their goaltenders from 2016-17 under contract for one more year in Cam Ward and Eddie Lack.  Carolina, a team that tends to hover near the bottom of the league in payroll, is highly unlikely to carry three goalies for next season, at least willingly.

Ward, who played the bulk of the games this season, has the higher cap hit of the two at $3.3MM while Lack is at $2.75MM.  Ward also has a partial no-trade clause that could get in the way of being moved as he can block a deal to 15 teams while Lack has no such protection.

Both will be exposed in the expansion draft but assuming they go unclaimed, it sets up a situation where one will need to be dealt or bought out.  Ward would carry a buyout cost of $1.23MM next season and $1.03MM in 2018-19 while Lack would have a cap charge of $750K and $1MM over those seasons.  It’s worth noting that in terms of actual dollars to be paid, Ward’s buyout would only cost $66K more despite the higher cap hit.  Accordingly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Lack – who was called out by coach Bill Peters late in the season – be the odd man out.

Deal For Teravainen

Francis has very few NHL restricted free agents to deal with.  In fact, there are only two of them but one of them – Teuvo Teravainen – is a notable one.  The versatile forward has finished his entry-level contract and is coming off a career year with 42 points (15-27-42) in 81 games.  There’s no doubt he’ll be in line for a nice raise for the $925K in salary he earned (before factoring in potential performance bonuses) over these last three seasons.

Nov 12, 2016; Raleigh, NC, USA; Carolina Hurricanes forward Teuvo Teravainen (86) skates with the puck against Washington Capitals at PNC Arena. The Carolina Hurricanes defeated the Washington Capitals forward 5-1. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY SportsBack at the trade deadline, it was reported that Francis was looking into trade possibilities involving Teravainen.  There’s no word as to whether they were close to finding a deal or if enough traction was made to reignite talks this summer.  The suggestion that the Hurricanes, a team that has been in a rebuilding phase for a while now, would consider moving a 22 year old who was a first round selection was certainly noteworthy.  Whether it’s a deal in the form of a second contract (bridge or long-term) or a deal in the form of a trade, Francis will have a big decision to make with Teravainen this offseason.

Dangle Defense For Offensive Help

The Hurricanes don’t have a well-known group of defensemen but they have quietly assembled a strong group of young and mostly home-grown talent.  It has become a major strength for the organization and the time may be right to deal from a position of strength.  Quality defenders with multiple years of team control remaining aren’t available too often and it’s something that pretty much every team covets.

Meanwhile, Carolina was in the bottom third of the league in terms of goal production and while they have some quality talent up front, they’re lacking in depth and could certainly stand to add a top six forward as well.  If they wanted to dangle one (or more) of those blueliners, they would be well-positioned to get that impact forward in return.

Noah Hanifin, Ryan Murphy, Brett Pesce, and Jaccob Slavin happen to be on cheap contracts below $1MM for next season with all being eligible for restricted free agency next summer.  Their cheap back end is going to become more expensive before too long.  Accordingly, if there was ever a time to move one of their promising young defensemen, this may be it before most of those players get big raises in 2018.  To that end, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Francis open up extension talks with several of these players once that window opens up in July.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Reactions From Around The League To Darling’s Deal

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After signing Scott Darling to a four-year/$16.6MM deal, analysts and writers responded and while opinions were still trickling out, there were still quite a number of takes on Carolina signing their goalie.

  • The Chicago Tribune’s Chris Hine writes that Darling “cashed in” after a successful stint as a backup in Chicago.  He adds that the Hurricanes wanted him to be their starter badly and did what was necessary financially to make sure it became a reality.
  • Yahoo’s Greg Wyshynski adds that the Hurricanes signed him to “save” them in net. He writes that it’s a much deserved raise for the 28-year-old, who had “quite the journey” getting to where he is now in the league.
  • Cap Friendly tweets that the deal places Darling as the 23rd highest cap hit for a goalie. He’s right behind Cam Talbot, who Darling has drawn comparisons to in the past.
  • The Score’s Navin Vaswani reports that the Hurricanes traded for their goalie of the future last week and now signed him today.  Vaswani adds that while Cam Ward certainly deserves kudos for his longevity with the team and backstopping the team to its only Stanley Cup in 2006, it was long overdue to get a stronger option between the pipes.
  • Finally, TSN’s Pierre LeBrun tweets that in addition to the signing being a “great job by Carolina,” Darling’s deal includes a limited no-trade clause.

 

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