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Blue Jackets Notes: Team Building Goals, Gavrikov, Ruopp, Soberg

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Refreshingly straightforward Columbus Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen was open and honest with Sportnet’s Elliotte Friedman recently when asked about his teams short-term and long-term objectives. The Blue Jackets surprised many this past season with their stellar play, reaching 108 points on the year – a franchise record by a significant margin. Yet, Columbus was easily dispatched by the Eastern Conference champion Pittsburgh Penguins in the first round of the playoffs. Kekalainen understands that his team must get better if they ever want to reach their first Stanley Cup, but he is not worried. Kekalainen told Friedman that they “are not thinking short-term. Our window is not just open now. We are only cracking the window.” Kekalainen clearly believes that his young, talented team can compete for a long time – even with a difficult Expansion Draft situation looming – without having to worry entirely about just the next couple of seasons.

When discussing what exactly he want to do to improve the team, Kekalainen named a number one center and a “sniper in the key moments” as the biggest needs. He expands on the desire for a “sniper” by stating that the team will look internally and externally for players with greater finish around the net. In 2016-17, Cam Atkinson had a breakout year with a career-best 35 goals, courtesy of a 14.6% shooting percentage. Captain Nick Foligno and rookie Josh Anderson also broke the 14% shooting mark, while others like Alexander Wennberg, Brandon Saad, and Brandon Dubinsky topped the NHL average, generally somewhere around 9%. Yet, other key contributors including every starting defenseman, Boone Jenner, and William Karlsson were not as lucky with their accuracy. Kekalainen hopes to add players who can make up for some of those missed opportunities with a better eye for putting the puck in the back of the net.

One player who has been known as a “sniper” and may also fit the bill as a top center one day is Oliver Bjorkstrand. The 2013 third-round pick was nearly unstoppable as a junior player with the WHL’s Portland Winterhawks, but has cooled down since turning pro in 2015-16 with just pedestrian AHL numbers. He also has largely moved completely to right wing in that time as well. Yet, last season Bjorkstrand played in 26 games with the Blue Jackets, recording 55 shots and scoring six goals for a 10.9% shooting percentage. He also scored four goals in 12 NHL games in his rookie season. Some more ice time, possibly even some back at center, in 2017-18 could be an internal solution for Columbus’ need for finish. However, in speaking with Friedman, Kekalainen made no mention of Bjorkstrand as the answer to either problem. He also left Wennberg out of the mix for an internal number one center, even though the 22-year-old had an outstanding campaign in exactly that role, recording 13 goals and 46 assists. Wennberg is by no means a “sniper”, but if Kekalainen can separate the two biggest needs of his team, Wennberg certainly has the appearance of a potential top-31 center in the NHL down the road.

The two players tabbed by Kekalainen, the former as possible top center option and the latter as a potential elite NHL finisher, were unsurprisingly 2016 third-overall selection Pierre-Luc Dubois and 2015 third-rounder Keegan Kolesar. Dubois nearly made the Blue Jackets out of camp in 2016-17, but was sent back to junior before he could make his NHL debut. After a somewhat disappointing junior season production-wise, aside from a strong QMJHL postseason run, Dubois appears to have outgrown juniors and should be in Columbus next season. He possesses high-end two-way ability and hockey IQ and has unique strength, both with and without the puck, for his age. While it remains to be seen if Dubois can stick at center in the NHL rather than move to left wing, where many scouts projected him even before he was drafted, Dubois is very likely to make an impact for the Jackets next season and surely could be an option at number one center. Meanwhile, Kolesar may not be ready for the big-time next season, but when he does arrive, the 6’2″, 223-lb. right wing will also bring with him a developed two-way game. However, where Kolesar catches your eye is his finish: he can capitalize around the net and he can strike from afar with a great shot. Kolesar could be that “sniper” that Kekalainen is looking for, but not for a few more years.

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Potential Buyout Options

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NHL fans are looking ahead to an offseason which will likely see a lot of movement, but will also feature teams tight up against a stagnant cap ceiling. Buyouts are always an option teams will weigh, although certainly an avenue of last resort. Dumping a contract isn’t as simple as taking the player’s salary off the books. They will count as 1/3 or 2/3 of the original cap hit, for twice the remaining years on that contract. So if a 26 year old player has two years remaining at $3 MM, he will cost $1 MM for four years against the team’s cap total. That means a substantial savings of $2 MM, but is a habit GMs will not want to fall into. For players over 26, the 2/3 rule applies, and that same player would count for $2 MM each of the next four seasons. In such a scenario, the savings are rarely worth it. However, teams can be backed into this corner when trade options completely vanish.

For the 2017 offseason, there is an extra component at play – the expansion draft. Players with full No-Movement Clauses must be protected by their team, exposing potentially better, younger, cheaper options to selection by the Vegas Golden Knights. Prior to the expansion draft, on June 15-17th, there will be a buyout window. Consequently, there will most likely be at least one case where a player who otherwise would not have been bought out will be due to a team’s long-term prospects. This certainly isn’t what the NHLPA had hoped for when they agreed to another 20+ players in the league with the expansion of Vegas, but is an unfortunate unforeseen consequence. Here are just some of the players who could be facing the buyout option this summer:

 

Antti Niemi – Dallas Stars

Both Niemi and fellow goalie Kari Lehtonen should be expecting this fate. With Ben Bishop signing a massive six-year contract with Dallas, their time as starters in this league look all but complete. Both are paid an asburd amount of money, but Niemi’s $4.5 MM is the more unpalatable total. His .892 save percentage through 37 games this year was only edged in ineptitude by Michal Neuvirth among tenders who got more than 15 starts. At his pricetag he is virtually unmoveable, and with only one year remaining on his contract, the hit would be worth it for 2 seasons to keep him away from the team.

Kevin Bieksa – Anaheim Ducks

Bieksa might seem an odd inclusion on this list, considering his age, but it should be remembered that he has a No-Movement Clause, meaning he would need to be protected by the Ducks. Needing to also protect Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler, and Hampus Lindholm, even under the 8 player protection model, this would likely expose Josh Manson. Considering his play in this post-season, and Bieksa’s complete inability to remain healthy, this is a darkhorse candidate for a last-minute buyout. Bieksa’s Corsi is the worst on the backend for his team and his skating has looked quite problematic of late. The flare of his Vancouver days seems long past and with only one year remaining at $4 MM, he seems an easy target to eliminate.

Scott Hartnell – Columbus Blue Jackets

Hartnell is considered a gutsy character player, a net-front presence, and a veteran leader. However, he has seen his production shift from being that of a decent offensive threat (28 G, 32 A in 2014-15) to an average third liner (13 goals, 24 A in 2016-17). His problems run deeper, though, as his brand of physical hockey has taken its toll on his play. No longer quite the intimidating wrecking-ball of his Philadelphia days, Hartnell is not as effective on the forecheck as he once was. The reason he is included on this list, however, is because Columbus has a lot of young, promising players they will wish to protect in the expansion draft, and Hartnell has a No-Movement Clause. At 34 years old and in a quickly diminishing role, it will be difficult for GM Jarmo Kekalainen to save a space for Hartnell. With toughness adequately filled by hard-nosed forwards in Brandon Dubinsky, Boone Jenner, Nick Foligno, and Brandon Saad, he seems even more superfluous. Assuming Dubinsky (NMC), Brandon Saad, Jenner, Foligno (NMC), Cam Atkinson, and Matt Calvert are protected, Hartnell’s inclusion would sacrifice the 24 year-old William Karlsson. That’s a difficult concession for the Jackets to make, even if the youngster took a step back offensively this season. If they would opt to buy out Hartnell’s contract at $4.75 MM, it would mean $3.16 MM in dead space for 4 more seasons, a hefty pill to swallow.

 
There are certain to be other candidates for buyouts as well, but these are three that could easily find themselves looking for a new contract come June 18th.

Metro Division Notes: Atkinson, Penguins-Capitals, Devils

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After a tough 2015-16 season, the Columbus Blue Jackets have been one of the feel-good stories of the year.

That positivity continued today, as Cam Atkinson was named to the NHL All-Star Game, according to Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch. He’ll join teammates Seth Jones and Sergei Bobrovsky on the Metropolitan Division team. Atkinson is replacing Penguins star Evgeni Malkin, who is day-to-day with a lower-body injury.

The 27-year-old Atkinson told the Blue Jackets website that being named to the All-Star Game is “obviously very special and very humbling. To be playing with the best players in the world, it’s going to be fun. I’m going to take it all in and really enjoy the moment.”

Atkinson has 24 goals and 46 points in 47 games to lead the Blue Jackets in scoring. He’s just three goals and seven points shy of his career-high, set last season in 81 games played.

  • The Pittsburgh Penguins are preparing to go for back-to-back Stanley Cups for the first time since Detroit won in 1997 and 1998. GM Jim Rutherford told Sam Werner of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that he has yet to identify any specific area of his team’s roster to improve by the deadline. Rutherford once again stated that having two legitimate starting goaltenders in Marc-Andre Fleury and Matt Murray “doesn’t work ideally.” With the upcoming expansion draft, Rutherford will have to make a goaltending move eventually, but he doesn’t feel pressure to make a move until an offer makes sense to improve the roster or clear up the goaltending situation. The Penguins currently have zero dollars of cap space.
  • Moving to D.C. and the Penguins’ biggest rival, Capitals GM Brian MacLellan told TSN and ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun that he’s content with his team going forward. MacLellan feels that everything is running smoothly, so he’s “more inclined to do nothing” before March 1. However, that’s not to say the team won’t “go through the process of [asking], ’Can we upgrade on guys?'” The President’s Trophy-winning Capitals were eliminated in six games by the Penguins last season, and will be looking for revenge. LeBrun writes that the two teams will be preparing for an early matchup, perhaps even in the first round.
  • Continuing the trend of NHL teams moving their AHL affiliates, the New Jersey Devils will be moving their AAA squad from Albany to Binghamton, New York. Pete Dougherty of the Albany Times Union writes that the Baby Devils will be replacing the Binghamton Senators, who are moving to Belleville, Ontario. Albany ranks last in the AHL with regards to attendance; Binghamton is second-last, but gets nearly 20 per cent more people per game. The Devils organization reportedly ate a seven-figure loss in 2015-16, but still signed a new three-year contract with the Times Union Center. Dougherty reports that the organization will likely be making use of an out-clause. The move will be officially ratified at the AHL’s board of governors meeting on Sunday.

PHR’s Glen Miller also contributed to this post.

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