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Brock McGinn

Metropolitan Notes: Kuraly, Penguins, Sheary, MacEwen

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The Blue Jackets announced (Twitter link) that they have placed center Sean Kuraly in COVID protocol which means he will not play tonight against Detroit.  The team has been dealing with the virus lately with both head coach Brad Larsen and assistant coach Steve McCarthy entering the protocol late last month (they have since returned) while associate coach Pascal Vincent entered on Monday.  Kuraly has had a good first season with his hometown team, posting career highs in goals (12), points (28), faceoff wins (580), and hits (216) over 72 games.

More from the Metropolitan:

  • The Penguins will welcome winger Jason Zucker back to the lineup this afternoon as he has recovered from his knee injury, relays Matt Vensel of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link). The veteran returned to the lineup at the end of March after missing more than two months following core muscle surgery but suffered the knee injury that very same game.  It has been a frustrating year for Zucker to say the least as he has been limited to just 32 games, collecting just eight goals and six assists.  Meanwhile, while winger Brock McGinn is getting closer to returning from the upper-body injury that has held him out for the last month, he isn’t quite ready to play just yet.
  • Washington winger Conor Sheary will miss today’s game against Pittsburgh due to a non-COVID illness, notes Mike Vogel of the Capitals’ team website (Twitter link). He didn’t take part in Friday’s practice or travel with the team.  Sheary has been a quality secondary scorer for Washington this season, collecting 35 points in 60 games.
  • Flyers winger Zack MacEwen has been cleared by team doctors but will need some time before rejoining Philadelphia’s lineup, mentions Olivia Reiner of the Philadelphia Inquirer (Twitter link). He last played last weekend and suffered a head injury in a fight.  He has seven points and 101 penalty minutes in 66 games this season.

Penguins Place Bryan Rust And Brock McGinn In COVID Protocol

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The Penguins are looking for their 11th straight victory today against Dallas but they will be without a pair of forwards for this one as the team announced (Twitter link) that wingers Bryan Rust and Brock McGinn have been placed in COVID protocol.  Head coach Mike Sullivan clarified that McGinn tested positive yesterday while Rust tested positive this morning.

Rust has been on quite the hot streak lately, collecting seven goals and four assists in just three games since returning from a lower-body injury so the timing for this news is certainly far from ideal.  McGinn, meanwhile, has been a decent secondary scorer in his first season with Pittsburgh, picking up nine goals in 33 games so far.

The two join forward Drew O’Connor as those currently unavailable to COVID protocol.  As a result of the confirmed positive tests, they will miss at least five days past the date they tested positive which will keep McGinn out for at least the next two games and Rust for the next three.  Pittsburgh does get one player back from COVID protocol today, however, as center Jeff Carter returns after missing the last three contests.

Pittsburgh Penguins Content With Tristan Jarry As Starter

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Heading into the off-season, the Pittsburgh Penguins seemed destined to bring in a new goaltender. GM Ron Hextall more than hinted at his desire to add an established veteran to the mix alongside young Tristan Jarry, whose play suffered this past season. Yet, the status quo remains in the Pittsburgh net with Jarry and injury-prone backup Casey DeSmith. 

The root of this unexpected lack of change at the goalie position lies in the salary cap. Even with the departures of Jared McCann and Brandon Tanev, the Penguins are still right up against the upper limit. To this point, high-priced trade chips Jason Zucker, Marcus Pettersson, and Mike Matheson have yet to move, which leaves the team with little wiggle room in the free agent market. With what small space they had, the team opted to replace Tanev and McCann with Brock McGinn and Danton Heinen rather than address the goaltender position.

If and when the team is able to clear some space, perhaps adding a goalie will return to the forefront of their off-season objectives. The free agent market has largely been left bare, but the team could target a trade option such as Dallas’ Ben Bishop or Anton Khudobin, while Joonas Korpisalo, Alexandar Georgiev, and Malcolm Subban are other options believed to be available.

However, the team appears to no longer feel that they absolutely must add a goaltender before next season. Speaking with NHL.com’s Wes Crosby, Hextall stated that he believes Jarry is “going to bounce back” to starter quality for the Penguins this season. The 26-year-old did post a .921 save percentage and 2.43 GAA just a year ago, but those numbers fell to .909 and 2.75 this season. Most jarring was Jarry’s poor performance in the playoffs, in which he looked totally outmatched. Yet, Hextall – a former goalie himself – is confident that Jarry can return to form even without competition from a veteran addition. It seems he trusts DeSmith, who should be recovered from off-season surgery in time for the new campaign, as the backup again as well. This newfound confidence could be a product of the lacking talent available elsewhere or perhaps even some optimism for highly-regarded college free agent addition Filip Lindberg. Whatever the reason, the front office has changed their tune and Penguins fans have to hope that it all works out for the team as their championship window begins to close.

Pittsburgh Penguins Sign Brock McGinn

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The Pittsburgh Penguins have signed Brock McGinn to a four-year deal, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports. It carries a cap hit of $2.75MM per season.

McGinn enters the Pittsburgh organization after nine years in the Carolina Hurricanes organization. A veteran of six NHL seasons now, McGinn tallied his 50th goal and 100th point in the NHL and also has a series-winning overtime goal under his belt. A reliable third-line winger, McGinn’s coming off a good year with 13 points in 37 games, more importantly, in a season that saw his defensive impacts skyrocket. He’ll likely slot in a third-line position again in Pittsburgh and could form part of a formidable two-way shutdown line if centered by Teddy Blueger.

What’s important in this deal is cost certainty for the Penguins. Signed through 2024-25 at a cap hit under $3.0MM, McGinn projects as being able to provide consistent performance for that dollar amount as he’ll enter his 30s at the end of the deal. It’s a solid deal for a dependable player and should help Pittsburgh navigate some uncertain salary-cap waters.

Free Agent Focus: Carolina Hurricanes

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Free agency is now just a little more than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Coming off a disappointing playoff exit, the Carolina Hurricanes have an extremely eventful summer ahead of them.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Andrei Svechnikov – Despite taking a small step back this season offensively, Svechnikov was a large part of arguably the most successful regular season in Hurricanes history. While seeing the highest ice time of his career, Svechnikov dipped below the 20-goal mark for the first time in his career and was moved up and down the lineup under coach Rod Brind’Amour. It’s not all bad for the young Russian winger, though, as he still managed a respectable 42 points in 55 contests. It was largely a better effort defensively this season for Svechnikov as well, still boosting his value as he earned those extra minutes. With proven 20-goal ability and 30- and even 40-goal potential, Svechnikov likely sees a huge raise on his entry-level contract in the neighborhood of $6MM. It’s interesting to note that Svechnikov is not eligible for arbitration, meaning that negotiations will have to be resolved purely between the team and his agent.

F Warren Foegele – It was another solid season for the 25-year-old forward, who’s settling nicely into a third-line scoring role with Carolina. After being drafted 67th overall in 2014, Foegele crossed the 200-game threshold with his final game of the 2020-21 season. Even through shortened seasons, Foegele’s now scored between 10 and 15 goals in three straight campaigns with his ice time creeping up year by year. He’s trusted in both zones by the coaching staff, and a longer-term, lower-dollar deal could end up benefitting both sides down the road.

G Alex Nedeljkovic – One of the two Calder Trophy finalists who’s up for a new deal next season, Nedeljkovic was a pleasant surprise this season that helped stabilize the Carolina crease. Nedeljkovic sported a sparkling .932 save percentage to lead the league in that category, paired with a 15-5-3 record. Nedeljkovic continued his strong play into the playoffs, as his .920 mark was more than enough to keep the team competitive. He’ll indisputably be given the inside track on the starters’ job next season in Carolina, and will likely earn a short-term, Jordan Binnington-esque contract this offseason.

Other RFAs: F Yegor Korshkov, F Morgan Geekie, F Spencer Smallman, D Jake Bean, D Maxime Lajoie, G Jeremy Helvig

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Dougie Hamilton – While he didn’t have the ideal contract year, Hamilton will be a huge commodity this offseason. A respectable offensive force on the blueline, Hamilton finished 2020-21 with his seventh straight 10-goal campaign. His ability in transition is huge in ensuring that his team is the one with the puck on their sticks, and his 6′ 6″ frame isn’t exactly something to mess with. With a 62-point pace this season over 82 games, he continues to be one of the highest-scoring defenders in the league. The demand for UFA defensemen this season is high, and rumors of a sign-and-trade have swirled surrounding Hamilton. While it’s seeming unlikely he’ll return to Raleigh, there’s always a chance.

G Petr Mrazek – Injuries largely forced Mrazek into a backup role this season. However, it didn’t impact his play when he was in the net – he had arguably one of the best seasons of his career. His .923 save percentage was his highest as a Hurricane, and while his 12-game sample size is certainly a prohibiting factor, it only reinforces Mrazek’s reputation as one of the best tandem netminders in the league. With Nedeljkovic assuming the starting role, it’s unlikely Mrazek will be content to return as a backup. Another team can promise more games and more dollars, which will likely be deserved for the 29-year-old Czech native.

F Brock McGinn – The proposition of McGinn returning to the Canes is, at this point, anybody’s guess. While he showed flashes of strong potential with a 30-point season in 2017-18, McGinn, now 27, has cooled off since then. He’s still been a solid depth contributor, and he even saw some ice time with Sebastian Aho on the first line this season. But with the strength of Carolina’s prospect pool, it may not make much sense to re-sign an aging, declining depth winger. With nearly 350 games of NHL experience, he’ll find a home next season, whether it’s in Carolina or not.

Other UFAs: F Cedric Paquette, F Jordan Martinook, F Max McCormick, F Sheldon Rempal, F David Gust, D Jani Hakanpaa, D Roland McKeown, G James Reimer, G Antoine Bibeau

Projected Cap Space

The Hurricanes have been smart in building a contender, signing players to affordable longer-team deals. It puts Carolina in a position to add big this offseason with nearly $30MM in cap space. They can’t be too playful with their cash, however. After all, they have both goalie spots to fill in addition to big contracts due on both offense and defense. With Nino Niederreiter, Vincent Trocheck, and Martin Necas all in need of extensions after 2021-22, this offseason could be crucial in maintaining long-term success in Carolina.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Carolina Hurricanes

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Carolina Hurricanes

Current Cap Hit: $79,004,791 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Andrei Svechnikov (two years, $925K)
F Martin Necas (three years, $863K)
D Jake Bean (two years, $863K)
F Warren Foegele (one year, $747K)

Potential Bonuses:

Svechnikov: $2.65MM
Necas: $538K
Bean: $500K
Foegele: $20K

With a system full of top prospects, the Hurricanes got an impressive rookie season from Svechnikov, drafted with the second-overall pick in 2018, last season and now will have a top-six option for another two years at an entry-level cost. At 18 years old, he tallied 20 goals and 37 points and should be in line for more playing time and bigger numbers this season as a 19-year-old and could eventually become the franchise winger the team needs long-term. The Hurricanes also have high hopes for Necas to step in and take big role next season at the center position. The 2017 first-rounder had an impressive season for the Calder Cup Champion Charlotte Checkers of the AHL and could provide Carolina with some cheap talent.

Bean, the team’s first-rounder in 2016, has only made two appearances for Carolina, but could get a chance to take a much bigger role after a strong season with Charlotte, which saw his skills take that next step. The 23-year-old Foegele began to show off his offensive skill over the course of the season in Carolina. He scored 10 goals and 15 points during the regular season, but was even more impressive in the playoffs with five goals and nine points in just 15 games. If he can take his game up a notch, the Hurricanes could have an even more impressive offense next season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Justin Faulk ($4.83MM, UFA)
F Erik Haula ($2.75MM, UFA)
D Trevor van Riemsdyk ($2.3MM, UFA)
D Gustav Forsling ($874K, RFA)
D Haydn Fleury ($850K, RFA)
F Brian Gibbons ($725K, UFA)
F Clark Bishop ($700K, RFA)
F Lucas Wallmark ($675K, RFA)

There were rumors that suggested that talks between Carolina and Faulk were no where close on a potential extension and others that said negotiations were promising, however, Faulk could be a legitimate trade candidate if the team can’t eventually work out an extension. The 27-year-old Faulk had a solid season both defensively as he was finally in the positive on his plus/minus for the first time in his career, while also adding 11 goals and 35 points. However, with a number of young defensemen who are waiting for a chance to get an opportunity in Carolina, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Carolina unload him at the trade deadline.

Haula is an interesting acquisition. The 28-year-old was coming off a 29-goal season in Vegas’ inaugural season, but then suffered a gruesome knee injury and never returned. In the end, he played just 15 games, although he was close to returning late in the season with many believing that he would have been available had the Golden Knights had gotten deeper into the playoffs. If he can prove to be healthy, Haula might prove to be one of the best acquisitions of the year. Whether the Hurricanes will re-sign him will obviously depend on how he fares next season.

The team might be ready to move on from van Riemsdyk, who has served as a bottom pairing defenseman, but probably makes too much at $2.3MM to keep around long term, especially since Fleury hasn’t really had a true chance to prove himself and could be a better option at his price.

Two Years Remaining

D Dougie Hamilton ($5.75MM, UFA)
G James Reimer ($3.4MM, UFA)
F Ryan Dzingel ($3.38MM, UFA)
G Petr Mrazek ($3.13MM, UFA)
F Brock McGinn ($2.1MM, UFA)
F Jordan Martinook ($2MM, UFA)
G Alex Nedeljkovic ($738K, RFA)

The team has a number of interesting contracts with two years left, including their entire goaltending situation. The team has Mrazek, who put together a stellar season after years of inconsistency, and new backup Reimer as the new tandem with their top prospect in Nedeljkovic close to ready to step into the lineup. All three will likely stay this season as Nedeljkovic is waiver exempt and likely will just stay in the AHL. However, if he can prove in training camp that he’s ready for the back-up role, few would be surprised if the team found a way to unload Reimer, who had a terrible season last year in Florida.

Despite hearing constant rumors that Carolina was shopping Hamilton around this offseason, it looks like the Hurricanes will have the veteran defenseman for another season. He put up solid numbers, scoring 18 goals an 39 points and is solid defensively, but he could eventually be a trade candidate, perhaps as early as the trade deadline if the team struggles and can’t reproduce the same success it had a season ago. The team also hopes that they can get Dzingel to provide the same type of offense he was producing in Ottawa, rather than his struggles in Columbus. However, he should provide solid value at his pricetag and fit in nicely as a middle-six option.

Three Years Remaining

F Nino Niederreiter ($5.25MM, UFA)

It might have been the trade of the year when the Hurricanes acquired Niederreiter from Minnesota for Victor Rask. While Rask struggled in Minnesota, Niederreiter’s season took off when he arrived, scoring 14 goals and 30 points in 36 games and he slotted in nicely on the first line. If he can produce anything close to that, the team has a steal of a deal for the next three years. If his production drops back to what it was in Minnesota earlier in the year (nine goals and 23 points in 46 games) then the team has a contract that could be a burden for some time.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Sebastian Aho ($8.45MM through 2023-24)
F Jordan Staal ($6MM through 2022-23)
F Teuvo Teravainen ($5.4MM through 2023-24)
D Jaccob Slavin ($5.3MM through 2024-25)
D Brett Pesce ($4.03MM through 2023-24)

The Montreal Canadiens did Carolina a favor when they shocked the NHL by signing Aho to an offer sheet that didn’t look difficult to match. While five years likely isn’t ideal, the Hurricanes still now have their top franchise player signed until 2024 and can figure out its plans after that, but now are one of the few teams that have locked up their franchise restricted free agent already, with the rest still waiting to sign a contract. That should provide Aho, who had another breakout season with 30 goals and 83 points, with plenty of time to be ready for training camp and see if he can take his game to another level once again.

His linemate in Teravainen is another key piece of Carolina’s future who keeps producing better and better numbers. The 24-year-old produced 21 goals and a career-high 76 points and is locked up for another five years as well, giving Aho a solid winger to work with. The team, however, may not be as thrilled with the four years it still has in Staal, who produced one of his worst seasons although injuries did play apart. The 30-year-old still has four years at $6MM from a 10-year, $60MM deal he signed back in 2012. After posting just 11 goals and 28 points in 50 games, the team hopes he can bounce back.

One thing the Hurricanes did was locking up its young defenders. The team has seen Slavin develop into a top-line defenseman in the last year and to have him locked up at just $5.3MM for six more years will likely be one of the team’s biggest bargain for a long time. He has been averaging more than 22 minutes per game for three of his four seasons in the league. Pesce has also seen his game increase and is also a steal with the rising cost of young defensemen lately. Pesce saw his minutes break 20 minutes for a second straight season, while his offense increased by 10 points.

Buyouts

F Patrick Marleau ($6.25MM in 2019-20)
F Alexander Semin ($2.33MM through 2020-21)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Salary Cap Recapture

None

Still To Sign

F Justin Williams (UFA)
F Saku Maenalanen (RFA)
D Roland McKeown (RFA)

One question that is still up for grabs is whether Williams will return to the team. The 37-year-old winger has been told he can take as much time as he wants to determine whether he wants to return to hockey. He’s made it clear it’s either Carolina or retirement, but after putting up a solid campaign last year of 23 goals and 53 points, it’s hard to believe that the veteran leader is ready to hang it up if he still is capable of producing as a top-six forward. While he may eventually have to slide down to the third line, the veteran was critical to the team’s deep playoff run and Carolina hopes he will come back.

While McKeown might have a hard time finding playing time in Carolina’s stacked defense, the team will need to get Maenalanen signed at some point. The 6-foot-4 bottom-six winger stepped into the lineup late in the season and was a solid contributor, posting four goals and eight points in 34 games, while skating for just 9:26 of ATOI. He provided some physical play and if he can steal a spot on the fourth line, could be valuable.

Best Value: Slavin
Worst Value: Staal

Looking Ahead

The Carolina Hurricanes have done an impressive job of drafting well, developing their talent and adding veteran talent at reasonable prices. With most of their core already locked up long-term and plenty of talent still on entry-level contracts, the Hurricanes should be able to keep their team competitive for years and keep getting better as the team continues to develop.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2019 Arbitration Figures And Results

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August 6th: All arbitration cases have now been completed. In total, six cases were decided by an arbitrator’s award this year. That number, though seemingly not many, actually presents a 50% increase over last summer and more than the past two off-seasons combined. Of those six decisions, the teams and players received the favorable decision an even three times apiece, and each award landed within $150K of the midpoint. All things considered, there were few surprises in arbitration, even though there were more awards than expected. Now the question is where the relationships between those teams and players go from here.

Originally published on July 19th: Friday marked the start of the arbitration season in the NHL, with Brock McGinn first scheduled for his hearing with the Carolina Hurricanes. The appointments will come fast and furious after that, with 23 cases left on the books. When we asked our readers how many would actually get to the hearing stage more than 36% of voters thought 3-4 was reasonable, the same number that reached last year.

We know now that at least one will, as Andrew Copp’s agent Kurt Overhardt told Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Free Press that their camp will “look forward to” the hearing scheduled for Sunday. Copp and the Jets exchanged figures earlier today. It is important to remember that the two sides can actually work out a deal in the short period after the hearing and before the actual decision is submitted by the arbitrator. For every case except Ville Husso, who the St. Louis Blues took to arbitration, the team involved will be allowed to choose the duration of the contract awarded. They can choose either one or two years, unless the player is only one year away from unrestricted free agency, at which point only a one-year deal is available.

Here we’ll keep track of all the hearings still on the books and the figures submitted. This page will be updated as the numbers come in:

July 20:

Brock McGinn, Carolina Hurricanes – Team: $1.75MM AAV, Player: $2.7MM AAV
Settled: Two years, $2.1MM AAV

July 21:

Andrew Copp, Winnipeg Jets – Team: $1.5MM AAV, Player: $2.9MM AAV
Awarded: Two years, $2.28MM AAV

July 22: 

MacKenzie Weegar, Florida Panthers
Settled: One year, $1.6MM AAV

Zach Aston-Reese, Pittsburgh Penguins
Settled: Two years, $1.0MM AAV

Ville Husso, St. Louis Blues (team-elected)
Settled: One year, two-way, $700K AAV

Christian Djoos, Washington Capitals – Team: $800K, Player: $1.9MM
Awarded: One year, $1.25MM AAV

July 23: 

Evan Rodrigues, Buffalo Sabres – Team: $1.5MM, Player: $2.65MM
Awarded: One year, $2.0MM AAV

July 24: 

Oskar Sundqvist, St. Louis Blues
Settled: Four years, $2.75MM AAV

Neal Pionk, Winnipeg Jets
Settled: Two years, $3.0MM AAV

July 26: 

Colton Sissons, Nashville Predators
Settled: Seven years, $2.86MM AAV

July 27: 

Sam Bennett, Calgary Flames
Settled: Two years, $2.55MM AAV

July 28: 

Mirco Mueller, New Jersey Devils
Settled: One year, $1.4MM AAV

July 29: 

David Rittich, Calgary Flames
Settled: Two years, $2.75MM AAV

Pavel Buchnevich, New York Rangers
Settled: Two years, $3.25MM AAV

August 1: 

Remi Elie, Buffalo Sabres
Settled: One year, two-way $700K AAV

Chandler Stephenson, Washington Capitals
Settled: One year, $1.05MM

August 2: 

Linus Ullmark, Buffalo Sabres – Team: $800K, Player: $2.65MM
Settled: One year, $1.33MM

Will Butcher, New Jersey Devils
Settled: Three years, $3.73MM AAV

August 4: 

Jake McCabe, Buffalo Sabres – Team: 1.95MM, Player: $4.3MM
Settled: Two years, $2.85MM AAV

Anton Forsberg, Carolina Hurricanes – Team: $700K/$70K, Player: $833K
Awarded: One year, $775K AAV

Sheldon Dries, Colorado Avalanche
Settled: One year, two-way $735K AAV

Rocco Grimaldi, Nashville Predators – Team: $700K/$70K, Player $1.275MM
Awarded: One year, $1MM

Joel Edmundson, St. Louis Blues – Team: $2.3MM, Player $4.2MM
Awarded: One year, $3.1MM

Arbitration Breakdown: Andrew Copp

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Salary arbitration season is underway, as hearings were scheduled to begin on July 20th and extend through August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. What goes on behind closed doors before that point? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.

After the Carolina Hurricanes and Brock McGinn settled this morning, just before their scheduled hearing, the Winnipeg Jets’ Andrew Copp became next in line. Ironically, he and McGinn are very similar players with very similar filing number midpoints in their cases. The Jets and Copp are farther apart than were the ’Canes and McGinn, and Copp’s agent has been open about intending to settle that dispute through arbitration, so a hearing is more likely than not. A Copp hearing would be very similar to what a McGinn hearing would have been, including many shared comparable players, now including McGinn. Here is a closer look at his case:

The Case of Andrew Copp

Career Statistics: 293 games played, 36 goals, 48 assists, 84 points, +55 rating
Platform Statistics: 69 games played, 11 goals, 14 assists, 25 points, +20 rating

Filing Numbers: Copp – One year, $2.9MM, Jets – Two years, $1.5MM (midpoint: $2.2MM)

Player Side

Themes:

  • Top-Nine Forward: among top nine Jets forwards in goals per game, assists per game, points per game, and total points in platform season; consistent improvement in scoring numbers every season
  • Key Defensive Player: led Jets forwards in plus/minus by wide margin; regular shorthanded role; strong face-off numbers

Potential Comparable Players:

Brock McGinn (2019)
Career Statistics: 240 games played, 36 goals, 40 assists, 76 points, -27 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 10 goals, 16 assists, 26 points, +10 rating
Salary: $2.1MM

  • Player’s argument: very similar career offensive totals; Copp had better per game offensive numbers in the platform season; Copp has more experience; Copp has far superior career plus/minus; Copp is a center, valued more than winger
  • Team’s counter: McGinn has better career per-game scoring; McGinn has better defensive numbers – hits, blocked shots, takeaways, shorthanded ATOI

Johan Larsson (2019)
Career Statistics: 331 games played, 32 goals, 47 assists, 79 points, -49 rating
Platform Statistics: 73 games played, 6 goals, 8 assists, 14 points, -8 rating
Salary: $1.55MM

  • Player’s argument: Copp has far better offensive totals and per game numbers in platform season; Copp has better career offensive totals and per game numbers; Copp has far better career and platform plus/minus
  • Team’s counter: Larsson’s salary is considerably below midpoint; Larsson has more experience; Larsson has better defensive numbers – hits, blocked shots, takeaways, shorthanded ATOI

Team Side

Themes:

  • Not a Reliable Player: two seasons out of four with less than 70 games played due to injury; drop-off in ATOI in platform season; no role on power play, second penalty kill unit; scores in bunches, suffers droughts
  • Not a Key Defensive Player: outside top five Jets forwards in hits, blocked shots, and takeaways; fourth in total face-offs taken; one of seven Jets forwards with at least one minute of shorthanded ATOI; prone to turnovers

Potential Comparable Players:

Joel Armia (2019)
Career Statistics: 237 games, 39 goals, 42 assists, 81 points, -3 rating
Platform Statistics: 57 games, 13 goals, 10 assists, 23 points, even rating
Salary: $2.6MM

  • Team’s argument: Armia has far better career per game offensive numbers; Armia had far better per game offensive numbers in platform; similar defensive numbers; Armia creates turnovers, Copp prone to turning puck over
  • Player’s counter: Copp has more experience and more consistent games played; Copp is a center, valued more than a winger

Scott Laughton (2019)
Career Statistics: 272 games played, 31 goals, 48 assists, 79 points, -24 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 12 goals, 20 assists, 32 points, -11 rating
Salary: $2.3MM

  • Team’s argument: Laughton had better platform season; Laughton is better defensive player – more face-offs, hits, blocked shots, shorthanded ATOI ; Laughton has been more consistent contributor
  • Player’s counter: very similar career offensive totals and per game numbers; Copp is superior goal scorer; Copp has far superior plus/minus; very similar age and size; same position and shot side

Prediction

This is not an exhaustive list of possible comparable players, but based on the player side and team side filing numbers and the resulting midpoint, this case is dead even. As similar as Copp is to McGinn, his side should be able to make a solid case that he is the better offensive player. In fact, Copp and Laughton are extremely similar offensive players and both sides could wind up using Laughton as a comparable player. That situation would greatly benefit Copp, as Laughton’s $2.3MM salary is on his side of the midpoint and there’s a fair case to be made that Copp is better goal-scorer than Laughton. Where Copp’s side could fall short is in emphasizing his defensive prowess, as he falls short against most comparable and several teammates. It’s hard to see Copp far surpassing Laughton or falling well below McGinn, so expect him to land a deal in the $2-2.35MM range.

Hurricanes Re-Sign Brock McGinn

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Brock McGinn’s arbitration hearing was slated for Saturday morning but it wasn’t needed in the end.   The team announced that they’ve agreed to a two-year, $4.2MM contract with the winger. GM Don Waddell released a brief statement on the signing:

We’re relieved to have this settled before going to arbitration. Brock was an important part of what we accomplished last season and we’re happy to have him as part of our group moving forward.

The deal will pay $1.9MM next season and $2.3MM in 2020-21 and will take him to unrestricted free agency.  The $2.1MM AAV checks in slightly below the $2.225MM midpoint of the initial filings and right within the range that our Zach Leach predicted yesterday when he broke down each side of the case.

The 25-year-old has emerged as a capable bottom-six forward for Carolina over the past couple of seasons.  While his offensive numbers slightly dipped from 2017-18, McGinn still put up 26 points (10-16-26) in 82 regular season games last year and chipped in at a similar rate with six points (2-4-6) in 15 postseason contests as the Hurricanes made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Final.

McGinn also provides Carolina with some grit as he recorded 137 hits in each of the last two seasons.  He also led the Hurricanes in shorthanded ice time per game among forwards which certainly helped his value.  In the end, he winds up more than doubling his previous AAV of $887.5K.

With this deal now done, Waddell can shift his focus to his group of AHL restricted free agents, a list headlined by goalie Anton Forsberg and winger Saku Maenalanen.  Forsberg’s arbitration hearing is slated for August 4th, the final day for hearings so there is still plenty of time for the two sides to work something out.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman (Twitter link) was the first to report the deal.

Arbitration Breakdown: Brock McGinn

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Salary arbitration season is underway, as hearings begin on July 20th and extend through August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. What goes on behind closed doors before that point? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.

Brock McGinn of the Carolina Hurricanes was the first arbitration filing to become public this off-season and fittingly landed an early hearing date. Barring a last-minute settlement, in less than 24 hours he will also be the first player to go through the arbitration process this summer. Here is a closer look at his case:

The Case of Brock McGinn

Career Statistics: 240 games played, 36 goals, 40 assists, 76 points, -27 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 10 goals, 16 assists, 26 points, +10 rating

Filing Numbers: McGinn – One year, $2.7MM, Hurricanes – One year, $1.75MM (midpoint: $2.225MM)

Player Side

Themes:

  • Regular Contributor: played in all 82 games in platform season, 162 of last 164; top-nine Hurricanes forward in ATOI, points, and shots in platform season
  • Key Defensive Player: led Hurricanes forwards in shorthanded ATOI; among top-four Hurricanes forwards in plus/minus, hits, blocked shots, and takeaways

Potential Comparable Players:

Scott Laughton (2019)
Career Statistics: 272 games played, 31 goals, 48 assists, 79 points, -24 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 12 goals, 20 assists, 32 points, -11 rating
Salary: $2.3MM

  • Player’s argument: better career points per game, better career total goals, better platform plus/minus
  • Team’s counter: Laughton had better platform season, Laughton is better defensive player, Laughton’s salary reflects a premium for center position

Zack Kassian (2017)
Career Statistics: 313 games played, 45 goals, 53 assists, 98 points, -21 rating
Platform Statistics: 79 games played, 7 goals, 17 assists, 24 points, +4 rating
Salary: $1.95MM

  • Player’s argument: better platform, higher points per game career, more consistent goal scorer, better defensive numbers
  • Team’s counter: similar points per game career, Kassian had close to full season more experience

Team Side

Themes:

  • Fourth-line forward: outside top-nine Hurricanes forwards in even strength ATOI, no role on the power play
  • Not a reliable goal scorer: low shooting percentage (8.1% platform, 9.4% career), tied for 12th among Hurricanes forwards in goals per game; no game-winning goals or overtime goals in regular season
  • Regression: goals, points, shooting percentage, ATOI all down in platform season from year prior

Potential Comparable Players:

Joel Armia (2019)
Career Statistics: 237 games, 39 goals, 42 assists, 81 points, -3 rating
Platform Statistics: 57 games, 13 goals, 10 assists, 23 points, even rating
Salary: $2.6MM

  • Team’s argument: Armia has better career points per game, Armia has far better platform, similar defensive numbers
  • Player’s counter: better career-high goals, better physical game

Artturi Lehkonen (2019)
Career Statistics: 221 games, 41 goals, 39 assists, 80 points, -2 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games, 11 goals, 20 assists, 31 points, +10 rating
Salary: $2.4MM

  • Team’s argument: Lehkonen has better career and platform points per game, Lehkonen has better career and platform goals, Lehkonen has more consistent offensive numbers, similarly low shooting percentage – Lehkonen more involved offensively, similar defensive numbers
  • Player’s counter: different styles of player – Lehkonen far less physical, Lehkonen’s career and platform numbers inflated by substantially more ice time

Prediction

This is not an exhaustive list of possible comparable players, but based on the player side and team side filing numbers and the resulting midpoint, the Carolina Hurricanes have a stronger case with the comparable players available than does Brock McGinn. Expect a potential decision to be in the $2-2.2MM range.

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