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Trade Rumors: Senators, Blackhawks, Avalanche

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With leading scorer Matt Duchene on injured reserve and expected out for “weeks”, what little chances the Ottawa Senators had of making the playoffs this season are likely to slip away. This was always the expected result of the 2018-19 season for Ottawa, but their efforts thus far to stay out of the basement of the NHL have surprised many and inspired some. However, as reality now begins to finally set in, the team must decide what they want to do with Duchene and fellow impending free agents Mark Stone and Ryan Dzingel. As Ken Warren of the Ottawa Sun writes, Duchene – currently tied for ninth in the league in scoring – will likely ask for an eight-year deal in the ballpark of $60-70MM to remain in Ottawa, reflective of the salary he will likely command on the open market. Stone will be in the same neighborhood, with Dzingel significantly lower albeit not cheap by any means, but the Senators cannot even begin negotiations with the pair until the new year, per the rules pertaining to their recent salary arbitration decisions. As such, the team is dealing with three high-quality expiring assets without any guarantee that they will be re-sign or if the team will be willing to meet their salary demands. In a season in which Ottawa could finish with one of the worst records in the league but lacks their first-round pick – given to the Colorado  Avalanche in the deal that landed Duchene – it stands to reason that GM Pierre Dorion will strongly consider recouping as much trade capital as possible if extensions are not in place by the trade deadline. Given the uncertainly surrounding the ownership status of Eugene Melnyk, whose tactics thus far leave much to be desired anyway, Warren believes that Duchene, Stone, and Dzingel, as well as any other free agent in the coming off-season, will think twice about a future in Ottawa. All things considered, it’s beginning to look like the trio stand a better chance to all be traded away in the coming months than any of them do of signing a long-term extension.

  • The Athletic’s Graeme Nichols wonders if yet another Senator is prime trade bait right now as well. With veteran goaltender Craig Anderson playing his best hockey of the season so far, Nichols opines that Ottawa would be best-served to try moving their starter while his stock is high. While the recent home-and-home series with the Montreal Canadiens did not go so well, Anderson did look very good in wins over the New York Rangers and San Jose Sharks prior, recording 63 saves on 65 shots over the two contests. Anderson also made 48 saves against the Dallas Stars last month and notched wins over the Tampa Bay Lighting and Pittsburgh Penguins. Admittedly, even as this best, Anderson is still a 37-year-old replacement-level goaltender at this point in his career and won’t command much of a return. However, the Senators’ season is sinking and they should get what they can while his value is potentially at its peak. The knock on moving Anderson this season has been that Ottawa has no suitable replacement – backups Mike Condon and Mike McKenna have performed very poorly in limited appearances – and thus trading Anderson means giving up on the season. Yet, with Duchene out long-term, any postseason hopes will fade and moving Anderson will begin to make more sense. As Nichols recalls, Anderson himself also alluded to a desire to move on from Ottawa this summer, so making a deal seems to be in the best interest of all parties. There are plenty of teams out there who would be intrigued by adding an established veteran in net this year and Anderson could soon fill that role.
  • The Chicago Blackhawks made it known yesterday that they are looking to move out some of their defensive depth, but NBC Sports’ James O’Brien asks if they are focused on the wrong players. Rather than try to flip the likes of Brandon Manning or Jan Rutta, for which they would receive relatively little, O’Brien believes that the team’s long-term needs would be better served by trading away a mainstay like Duncan Keith or Brent Seabrook. This is not so cut-and-dry, as O’Brien admits, but would be worth looking into. Both players carry no-trade clauses that Chicago GM Stan Bowman would first need to ask them to waive. Even if Seabrook was to agree, it seems very unlikely that Bowman would find a taker for the depreciating defenseman and his albatross of a contract. If by some chance he does, it would be a small return similar to Manning or Rutta, but with a far greater salary cap relief. Keith is another matter; while not what he once was, the 35-year-old is still a very capable defenseman who would play in the top four for nearly every team in the NHL, at least for now. The worry is that Keith will continue to age and his ability will fall off, while the Blackhawks continue to pay him more than $5.5MM per year and rely on him for top minutes. Removing that crutch (and cap hit) now, in what appears to be another lost season for the team, would give Chicago a strong return that they could use to begin rebuilding the team. The alternative, which also appears to be the current plan, of waiting for the current roster to turn things around, will only increase the risk of injury or drop-off from Keith while damaging his market value as he ages. A move now would be painful to the fan base in the short term, but the right move looking toward the future.
  • One team who could be a dangerous player at the trade deadline this season are the Colorado Avalanche. Per CapFriendly, the Avs are currently projected to have more than $56MM in cap space available at the deadline, or in other words have no limit to the amount of talent they can bring in if they so choose. Colorado is currently tied for the lead in the Central Division with the Nashville Predators and could even emerge as President’s Trophy threats this season. Armed with the best line in the NHL, including the top two scorers in the league, Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon, and the best power play as well, the Avalanche are second in goals for per game among all teams. They also play well in their own end, seventh in goals against per game behind the efforts of Semyon Varlamov. Yet, the Avalanche are not without fault and could stand to add a contributor or two both on defense and up front. The team was expected to add top prospect Cale Makar to their blue line by the end of the regular season, but with his college squad, the UMass Minutemen, ranked No. 1 in the nation, Makar could be occupied through the Frozen Four tournament in mid-April. A capable puck-moving defenseman should thus be at the top of the list for Colorado, followed by an injection of offensive ability and two-way accountability among the forward corps, where their secondary scoring and penalty kill could both use work. While the matter of cost in trade capital is another question entirely, the Avalanche will have the cap space to hypothetically address their needs by adding the likes of Jordan Eberle, Kevin Hayes, and Jay Bouwmeester for example. That’s a dangerous premise for other contenders to consider as Colorado continues to excel this season.

Is There A Market For Karl Alzner?

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It’s been a brutal 17 months for Montreal Canadiens defenseman Karl Alzner. Well, the first few months after Alzner signed a five-year, $23.125MM contract on July 1st, 2017 were probably okay. Once he actually took the ice with the Habs last season though, it was all downhill. Alzner had capitalized on a weak free agent market – one in which even we here at PHR considered him the third best name – which had inflated his value far beyond what it should have been. Alzner was a solid defenseman for many years for the Washington Capitals, consistently healthy and capable of eating significant minutes. However, he lacked much in the way of offense and in retrospect his defensive abilities were amplified by the copious talent around him on the eventual Stanley Cup champions. Transitioning to a weaker roster in Montreal, Alzner was exposed when asked to play a key role on the Habs’ blue line. Carrying the puck more often, Alzer became a turnover machine. Facing tougher assignments, he was far less effective on defense and took a career high in penalties. And per usual, he contributed just twelve points and was a non-factor on offense.

Entering this season, Alzner and Canadiens fans alike hoped that he could turn it around and return to the shutdown player they felt they had signed for top dollar. However, the organization and coaching staff had other plans. Alzner was a healthy scratch in season opener and to date has only played in eight games with a major drop-off in ice time. Alzner was placed on waivers and subsequently cleared earlier this week and it was fair to wonder whether he had played his last game in Montreal just over a season into his five-year deal. That became much more probable yesterday, when the Canadiens gave Alzner and his agent permission to seek a trade.

Yet, permission to seek a trade is not the same as having concrete interest and willing suitors. Although the Habs have little reason not to accept any deal brought to them – barring an unreasonable amount of retained salary requested – that is just one side of a trade which obviously needs multiple teams. But is there even a market for Alzner? Two years ago, there was ample interest in him on the free agent market, but after a year in which he was exposed as having a game dependent on the talent of the players around him, he’s no longer the prize he once was. Then there’s also the matter of his contract, a relative albatross of four more years at $4.65MM. His stock is the lowest it has ever been, while his price is at it’s highest. That’s a tough combination to sell to a team. Alzner went untouched on waivers, meaning any team interested in acquiring him would also expect the Canadiens to retain some salary or otherwise add another piece to the deal.

Clearly, Alzner is not a player that can do much to help a rebuilding team. His cost also makes him a difficult addition for any team close to the salary cap ceiling. This leaves a narrow group of potential suitors who have talented rosters but are in comfortable salary cap shape and have a long-term need for a defensive blue liner. Any come to mind? It’s not a common occurrence, at least not currently. The Toronto Maple Leafs, although dealing with the William Nylander saga and long-term salary cap planning as is, would make some sense. The team is likely to lose Ron Hainsey and Jake Gardiner to free agency this summer and could use a long-term physical presence on the blue line at the right price. Their preference would certainly be to add a right-handed defenseman, but might not be picky if they feel Alzner would excel in their system. Barry Trotz’ new uber-conservative New York Islanders could also be a fit for Alzner, as they could stand to upgrade their blue line depth and have the existing talent to ease Alzner into his natural stay-at-home role. Alzner would seem to be a perfect fit for the Isles’ current system that emphasizes physicality and patient pace. The Columbus Blue Jackets and Minnesota Wild have fallen short of the ultimate goal despite strong recent campaigns and have the cap space to add a luxury piece like Alzner, who would be a bottom-pair defender for either team, albeit a needed depth addition. Finally, there are the Chicago Blackhawks who, despite shedding salary this summer, refrained from using their newfound cap space. Chicago had interest in Alzner when he was a free agent in 2017, considered by many the favorite to land the physical defender. The team could still use more talent and especially more shutdown play on the back end. However, with one of hockey’s worst contracts in Brent Seabrook already on the roster, could they really risk adding a similarly disappointing and overpaid defenseman in Alzner?

Those are just five teams who could potentially have interest in Alzner. There could be more, if some teams feel that Alzner’s play in Montreal has been a misrepresentation of his ability. Yet, there also could easily be less, as Alzner has done nothing in the past year plus to prove that he is anything more than a replacement level checking defenseman. Given his contract status, Alzner may find it difficult to match up with a new team and put together a successful trade out of Montreal. It is certainly a possibility, but the only team Alzner is likely going to be playing for in the near future is the AHL’s Laval Rocket.

Connor Murphy Out At Least Eight Weeks With Back Injury

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Sep 19: The Blackhawks issued an update on Murphy’s status, indicating that he will be off the ice for the next six weeks and is looking at somewhere between eight and twelve weeks before actually getting back into the lineup. That confirms that the Blackhawks will be without him for a good chunk of the season, and will need to find someone else to step up on the blue line.

Sep 14: The Chicago Blackhawks have question marks all through their group of defenseman, and got another one today when it was announced that Connor Murphy will miss the next eight weeks with a back injury. Murphy was locked into a role with the team heading into camp, but will have to sit out well into November as it turns out. The team also announced that Brent Seabrook will miss a week with an abdominal injury, and Gustav Forsling continues to work his way back from wrist surgery.

After a down year from Seabrook and Duncan Keith, Chicago is coming into the season without a real obvious plan on the blue line. Murphy’s injury will only complicate things and could lead the Blackhawks to bringing along a young player like Henri Jokiharju for the first part of the season. Jokiharju, Chicago’s first round pick from 2017, had an outstanding 2017-18 season with the Portland Winterhawks and could be ready for NHL competition even at the tender age of 19. The Finnish defenseman has shown an incredible ability to move the puck under pressure and could quickly become the primary option for the Blackhawks on the powerplay.

Still, that’s a lot to ask of a teenager at this point, especially given the pressure that is on the Blackhawks to perform this season. After a down year the team is still stuck in contract purgatory given their huge commitments to Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Seabrook and Keith, and needs to find a way back into the playoffs immediately. There’s no rebuild happening in Chicago, though the organization does have several interesting young names who will play a big role up front this season. Jokiharju, or whoever is given an opportunity in Murphy’s absence, will be asked to shoulder a lot of responsibility right away.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Chicago Blackhawks

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Chicago Blackhawks

Current Cap Hit: $74,008,045 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Nick Schmaltz (one year, $925K)
F Dylan Sikura (one year, $925K)
F Dominik Kahun (two years, $925K)
F David Kampf (one year, $925K)
F Victor Ejdsell (one year, $834K)
F Alex DeBrincat (two years, $778K)

Potential Bonuses:

Kahun: $2.85MM
Sikura: $925K
Schmaltz: $850K
DeBrincat: $133K

Total: $4,76MM

The team has a number of quality youngsters who will eventually cost them a good deal of money. However, the team has high expectations for Schmaltz, who had a breakout season and was one of the few bright spots in Chicago during a dismal season. Schmaltz, in his second year, scored 21 goals and added 52 points and is expected to be the team’s No. 2 center for a number of years in the future. The only key issue that Schmaltz continues to work on is his struggles in the face-off circle as he had just a 40.1 percent faceoff winning percentage last year, which is horrible.

The team’s other major bright spot was the play of DeBrincat. The 20-year-old made the team and then tallied 28 goals in his rookie campaign and looks to be another solid scorer for Chicago to work with in the top-six. The team hopes for a similar season from Sikura, who the team signed out of Northeastern University, where he posted 58 goals over four seasons there. The 23-year-old winger looks to have a solid chance of joining DeBrincat in the top six this season.

Two other interesting names, who could make an impact with the team are Ejdsell and Kahun. Ejdsell, who the team acquired in the Ryan Hartman trade at the deadline, has an opportunity to beat out Sikura for a top-six spot if he has a good training camp, while Kahun, signed to a two-year deal out of Germany, is another candidate to make the team and contribute immediately.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Cam Ward ($3MM, UFA)
F Marcus Kruger ($2.78MM, UFA)
D Jan Rutta ($2.3MM, UFA)
F Chris Kunitz ($1MM, UFA)
F Jordan Schroeder ($650K, UFA)
F Tyler Sikura ($650K, UFA)

While the Blackhawks offseason was relatively quiet, the team did make a splash in the goaltending market after the team went for much of the season last year without their starting goaltender. Because of their lack of depth, the team added Ward to help fill the backup role, who could also take over starting duties if needed. The 35-year-old Ward played 43 games for Carolina a year ago and posted a .906 save percentage along with two shutouts. While those numbers aren’t great, they are better than the goalies they carried a season ago.

The team also brought in some grit, bringing back Kruger as well as signing 38-year-old Kunitz. Both should fill significant roles in the bottom-six and hopefully boost the production of those lines. Kruger struggled since leaving Chicago. He posted just one goal and five assists in 48 games last season and was demoted to the AHL for 19 games. However, in the offseason, Kruger admitted he played the entire season with a hernia, which is what affected his play. Now, fully healthy, Kruger might be able to bounce back. Both are solid one-year options.

The 28-year-old Rutta showed some solid signs of progress in his rookie campaign. He averaged 19:15 of ATOI, scoring six goals and 20 points, as well as having a (minus) one plus/minus ratio. Another season could boost his production as a top-four defenseman.

Two Years Remaining

G Corey Crawford ($6MM, UFA)
D Brandon Manning ($2.25MM, UFA)
D Erik Gustafsson ($1.2MM, UFA)
F John Hayden ($750K, RFA)

The Blackhawks success will likely fall on Crawford, who missed most of the season last year with concussion-like symptoms and the 33-year-old netminder has already indicated that he likely won’t be ready for training camp and could miss part of the season next year.

With those issues, there isn’t necessarily a guarantee that he will bounce back and put up similar numbers from his 2015-16 season when he put up a .919 save percentage in 55 games. His numbers were actually even better in the 2017-18 season before he was injured, posting a .929 save percentage to go with two shutouts in 28 games.

Chicago will rely on Gustafsson and Murphy to help man their defense. Both will need to improve quite a bit to improve their weakened defense. Gustafsson showed some promise after being recalled late in the season from Rockford of the AHL and he posted 16 points in 35 games. The defensive-minded Murphy, who came over in the Niklas Hjalmarsson trade was solid, if not unspectacular on defense. Both will be needed if the team wants to return to the playoffs next year.Read more

Central Notes: Blackhawks Propsects, Kane, Allen

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The Chicago Blackhawks have come a long way over the last few years as the franchise has been forced to look for ways to develop young talent as their NHL club sits overloaded in bloated, unmovable contracts. Regardless, the team has done a solid job of integrating talent, including several key additions last year, most especially from Alex DeBrincat and the team was rewarded with a 28 goal season.

With the team’s development camp completed, The Athletic’s Scott Powers (subscription required) ranks all 59 of Chicago’s prospects, which he defines as players who have played less than 82 NHL games and haven’t clinched a full-time role with the team yet. One area the team has focused on has been signing collegiate undrafted free agents and Powers’ top prospect is Northeastern University signee Dylan Sikura, who signed with the team on March 25. The 23-year-old winger completed four years at Northeastern, posting 43 goals in the final two seasons and added three assists in five late-season games with the Blackhawks. The scribe expects Sikura to establish himself immediately in the team’s top-six and be a permanent fixture for a long time.

  • While not yet lumped in with likes of Brent Seabrook, Jonathan Toews and Duncan Keith, Chicago Blackhawks star Patrick Kane saw his numbers decline a bit this past season, which the 30-year-old star has taken note of, according to the Chicago Tribune’s Jimmy Greenfield and Shannon Ryan. Kane played a full season, posting solid numbers with 27 goals and 76 points, but those numbers pale in comparison to the 34 goals and 89 points in 2016-17 or the 46 goals and 106 points in 2015-16. In fact, Kane failed to post a point a game for the first time since the 2011-12 season. Regardless, Kane has worked hard since the World Championships (after being named MVP) and has focused his training on lateral movement, speed and explosiveness. “The way players train now it’s unbelievable the amount of preparation and work that goes into an offseason,” Kane said. “But you’re definitely going to see results.”
  • Although St. Louis Blues goaltender Jake Allen had said in April that he doesn’t intend to change his offseason training regimen after another turbulent season, the 27-year-old goaltender recently admitted that he has made some changes to his training this summer, according to Jeremy Rutherford of The Athletic (subscription required). Allen, who has seen his numbers get worse every year since he posted a 2.28 GAA in 37 games in 2014-15, to the point in which he had a 2.75 GAA last season, refused to admit what changes he’s made to his routine this year. “I’m not going to get into it too much, but there’s definitely a different mantra for me this summer,” Allen said. “It’s not wrapped around a specific time (of the season) or moment, but I’m really taking a lot of responsibility this summer for improving those things. I’m definitely trying a new approach this summer, and to be honest, things have actually been going really well — better than I thought I was going to take it, because I’m a pretty laid-back guy.”

The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part I

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Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. Here are the contracts that each team would most like to trade, from Anaheim to Dallas:

Anaheim Ducks: Corey Perry – three years, $25.875MM remaining

Corey Perry is no doubt a fan favorite in Anaheim. The big winger is a career Duck who has always played with an edge and a knack for finding the back of the net. However, the former 50-goal scorer has just 19 and 17 in the past two years respectively to the tune of $8.625MM per year. His lack of speed is apparent to even the most inexperienced hockey fan and he has drawn criticism from both GM Bob Murray and coach Randy Carlyle for the drop-off in his skating ability and production. The Ducks aren’t quite up against the salary cap just yet, but have three restricted free agents still unsigned and some big decisions on the horizon. Things are about to get tight in Anaheim and, as much as Ducks fans may not want to hear it, trading Perry away in the right deal would be the easiest solution.

Arizona Coyotes: None

The Coyotes trade for bad contracts, as the perennial salary cap floor dwellers rarely sign or acquire an expensive, long-term deal with an actual asset who may not be worth it.

Boston Bruins: David Backes – three years, $18MM remaining

On July 1st, 2016, it was leaked that Boston would sign David Backes to a one-year, $6MM contract and the Bruins were praised for bringing the veteran forward in as a hired gun. That celebration was short-lived, as the report was soon corrected to being a five-year deal with the same yearly salary and many questioned adding a 32-year-old with 727 games to his credit on a contract of that length and value. Two years later, the doubters have been proven right for the most part. Backes has not been bad in Boston (71 points in 131 games) and injuries have certainly affected his game, but it appears that his 50-point upside and Selke-caliber high-energy play are a thing of the past. Backes doesn’t have a defined role with the Bruins going forward and, as a team that doesn’t need the extra leadership and locker room presence and does need as much cap space as it can get, Boston would be better off if Backes were elsewhere.

Buffalo Sabres: Zach Bogosian – two years, $10.286MM remaining

The Sabres are finally trending in the right direction and have even used other teams’ bad salary cap situations to bring in some nice players this off-season. Buffalo themselves are in fine shape with the cap. However, there is still one contract that is bringing them down and that is Zach Bogosian. If Bogosian was fully healthy, his cap hit of just over $5.1MM would not be too bad. The 28-year-old defenseman has been a very capable two-way player in his career. Unfortunately, he just hasn’t been healthy enough during his time in Buffalo to be worth that salary. Bogosian played in only 18 games last year due to injury – and when he did play it showed that he wasn’t 100% – and has never topped 64 games in a season with the Sabres. The team has several young defenseman that could use as much ice time as possible and a beat up Bogosian isn’t helping anyone in Buffalo. Chances are the Sabres could still get a good return for the rearguard if he does show signs of being back at full-strength.

Calgary Flames: Troy Brouwer – two years, $9MM remaining

Calgary is in a really difficult salary cap situation with little space as is and five restricted free agent situations still to sort out. The team simply can afford to be paying Brouwer $4.5MM in each of the next two years for what he brings to the table. Many were skeptical of the Brouwer contract when signed and they were correct. The veteran power forward has only 25 and 22 points respectively in his first two years in Calgary, including just six goals last season, and at 32 years old he is unlikely to improve. Brouwer has even lost some of his trademark physical edge and recorded a career-low average time on ice last season when he was simply a non-factor in most games. With multiple players filing for salary arbitration, the Flames have been awarded an extra buyout period and it would not come as a shock to see Brouwer fall victim to it.

Carolina Hurricanes: Scott Darling – three years, $12.45MM remaining

The argument here is not that the Hurricanes should trade Darling because they need the cap space but that they should trade Darling because they need a better starting goaltender. Carolina is in fine salary cap shape, but so long as Darling is making more than $4MM per year, the team is likely to stick with him as the top guy. They have already committed to giving him another chance as the starter next season. Unfortunately, Darling’s first season in Raleigh hardly convinced anyone that this contract would work out. Moving from backup to starter, Darling seemed to crumble under the pressure even behind a stout defense, posting an .888 save percentage and 3.18 GAA as one of the worst keepers in the NHL. Perhaps his play will improve in year two, but the Hurricanes can’t be happy with the early results.

Chicago Blackhawks: Brent Seabrook – six years, $41.25MM remaining

When the Blackhawks made Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews the highest paid players in the league back in 2014, who would have figured that a different contract would be causing the team problems? Brent Seabrook’s eight-year, $55MM extension is already a nightmare for Chicago with the bulk of the contract still to come. Seabrook is a fine defenseman, but that doesn’t cut it when you’re paid like one of the top defenseman in the league, but your play is slipping and your team is finishing last in the division. This past season especially, it was clear that Seabrook has lost a step. Both his scoring and checking have diminished and he no longer resembles the player who was regularly posting 40+ points and garnering Norris Trophy votes. Seabrook will turn 34 later this season and it seems guaranteed that this contract only gets worse unless the team finds some way to trade him.

Colorado Avalanche: Erik Johnson – five years, $30MM remaining

The Avalanche have one of the lowest payrolls in the league with superstar Nathan MacKinnon locked up long-term at a reasonable rate. Their distance from the cap ceiling this season makes egregious contracts with just one year remaining – like streaky starter Semyon Varlamov and invisible forward Colin Wilson – somewhat tolerable. However, several major contributors are set to be restricted free agents after next season, Colorado will need to add another goaltender, and could still stand to add another difference-maker up front. Things could get tighter for the Avs moving forward and the one contract that could become a problem is Erik Johnson. Johnson eats up minutes and plays a defensively sound game, but the veteran defenseman is injury prone and does not create enough offense to warrant a $6MM cap hit. If the Avalanche were offered a reasonable deal for Johnson today they may not take it, but this time next year that same deal will be far more attractive.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Brandon Dubinsky – three years, $17.55MM remaining

The Blue Jackets pay Brandon Dubinsky like a second-line center and last season got fourth-line production from the veteran. Yes, Dubinsky has had his fair share of injuries, but a consistent 40+ point scorer dropping to just 16 points on the year was alarming. Columbus is no longer a small market team still figuring things out; the Jackets are a contender and like most contenders are close to the salary cap limit. The team can’t afford to have Dubinsky continuing to produce at this level while costing them $5.85MM against the cap. They hope that he bounces back this year, but even a slow start could have Columbus taking their best offer.

Dallas Stars: Martin Hanzal – two years, $9.5MM remaining

It may be too early to judge last summer’s Martin Hanzal contract, but if Dallas was offered a re-do right now, they would take it. Hanzal’s first season with the Stars was a disaster. Injuries limited him to just 38 games and even when active he contributed only ten points –  a 22-point pace over a full season – and somehow finished with the second-lowest plus/minus rating on the team. If Hanzal gets healthy, which is a big if, he could return to form next season, but if not the Stars could be quick to deal him away. The team desperately needs to bounce back from a devastating slump that cost them a playoff spot and have been rumored to be interested in big (expensive) names all off-season. That plan doesn’t mix well with a $4.75MM player who brought almost nothing to the team last year.

Keep an eye out for Part II of this three-part series coming soon…

 

Free Agent Focus: Chicago Blackhawks

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Free agency is now a little more than a month away from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Here is a breakdown of Chicago’s free agent situation.

Top Restricted Free Agent: F Vinnie Hinostroza — For the second year in a row, Hinostroza got some quality time with the Blackhawks, totallying 99 games in those two seasons. However this year, the 24-year-old forward really showed that he can contribute at a high level. In 50 games this year, Hinostroza found himself working between the second and third lines, totaling seven goals and 25 points, while logging more than 13 minutes of ice time per game. As Chicago becomes more and more reliant on youth to fill in the gap for some of their aging veterans, the team needs Hinostroza to take that next step as a bonafide top-six center.

Having made just $925K this past year, he still is likely to have quite a low salary for a few more years, which is exactly the kind of value the ’Hawks need to rebound and compete for a playoff spot next year.

Other RFA’s: D Adam Clendening, F Anthony Duclair, F John Hayden, F Tomas Jurco.

Top Unrestricted Free Agent: D Cody Franson — Perhaps a better word is ’none.’ There are no key unrestricted free agents unless you look real deep on their roster. You would have to look at players who the team moved to Rockford near the trade deadline when the team decided to give their young players as much playing time as possible. Franson was one of those players, who possesses the offensive talents, but lacks the defense to compete at an NHL level and has bounced around the league looking for a permanent home. Don’t count on Chicago being that place as a recent report suggests he’s not expecting to return next season. He tallied just a goal and six assists in 23 games, but was put on waivers in January.

Other UFA’s: F Lance Bouma, F Christopher Didomenico, G Jeff Glass, F Andreas Martinsen, D Michal Rozsival, D Viktor Svedberg, F Jordin Tootoo.

Projected Cap Space: The salary cap has not been Chicago’s friend over the past few years with big contracts the team handed out to Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook, among others. However, the team has done a good job of moving some contracts and have $6.1MM of cap space available to them, and that’s not including the assumption the cap could go up $5MM next season. The team might have the ability to bring in a free agent or two to help aid the veterans in making a playoff comeback this year. While it’s not likely to include a high-priced free agent, their available cap space should be an asset for the coming season.

Draft Lottery Can Change Many Franchises’ Futures

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A lottery it really is this year.

While the NHL draft lottery always garners quite a bit of attention, some years are just a bit different if the top pick is a game-changer, whether you’re talking about Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews or this year’s No. 1 option. With prospect Rasmus Dahlin listed as the consensus top pick this year, and described by many as having no weaknesses, he is considered to be one of the top defensive prospects to enter the league in possible decades. The 18-year-old defenseman out of Sweden should immediately change the state of any franchise that wins tonight.

With the lottery just hours away, how will each club look if they were to get lucky and win it?

Buffalo Sabres (18.5%) — The Sabres franchise would get a huge boost with the addition of Dahlin plus some badly needed luck that they seem to never have. Already boasting one of the worst defenses in the league and sudden talk that the team shouldn’t consider Rasmus Ristolainen a No. 1 defenseman, the team and general manager Jason Botterrill’s job would get much easier if they can win the lottery.

Ottawa Senators (13.5%) — Winning the lottery should make their tough decision easier as they traded away their top pick in the Matt Duchene trade, which is, fortunately for them, top-three protected. Winning the lottery is a no-brainer as they would take Dahlin who could either join star defenseman Erik Karlsson or allow the team to trade the veteran, knowing they already have his replacement. However, the real issue is they end up in the top three, do they keep the pick or send it to Colorado to avoid giving Colorado an unprotected first-rounder in 2019.

Arizona Coyotes (11.5%) — Despite having the third-worst record in the league this year, the Coyotes seem to be heading in the right direction as they went 19-12-4 in their final 35 games of the season as many of the team’s young players had started to figure things out. What better way to improve on that then to add Dahlin, who could convince fellow countryman Oliver Ekman-Larsson to stay on with the team for many years to come.

Montreal Canadiens (9.5%) — With the injury struggles of aging defenseman Shea Weber and little else defensive help nearby, the team could use the infusion of a franchise-changing defenseman joining the team. With Weber and goaltender Carey Price on huge contracts, a cheap franchise player could move the team in the right direction.

Detroit Red Wings (8.5%) — What better way to finally start the rebuild, then by adding a young, talented defender to join the team. With few defensive prospects on the horizon, the team’s suspect defense could get a huge boost with Dahlin. With the return of Mike Green unknown, and a group of aging veterans, the team needs someone to take over as the face of the franchise.

Vancouver Canucks (7.5%) — The Canucks rebuild is looking better and better with players like Adam Gaudette, Elias Pettersson, Jonathan Dahlen and defenseman Olli Juolevi about to arrive. Throw in Brock Boeser, Bo Horvat and a number of other prospects on the way, Dahlin would only quicken this team’s rise of young players. On top of that, the team is loaded with defensive-minded blueliners and could use an offensive power-play quarterback.

Chicago Blackhawks (6.5%) — While a lottery victory by the Blackhawks might infuriate the rest of the league, the Blackhawks do need to bolster their defensive depth and Dahlin could easily vault a struggling team back into the playoffs as he could take a lot of pressure off veterans Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook.

New York Rangers (6%) — Just started a rebuild and they walk away with a generational talent? While many people believe the Rangers intend to have a quick rebuild and compete for a playoff spot within the next year or two, having Dahlin on the roster would only jettison the team to that goal quicker and putting him alongside Brady Skjei and Neal Pionk along with veteran Kevin Shattenkirk would help stabilize their blueline.

New York Islanders (6% total with 3.5% from their pick and Calgary’s 2.5%) — Perhaps winning the lottery would be enough to convince John Tavares to stay. Regardless, adding Dahlin to their defensive woes would only stabilize a team that has the offense to reach the playoffs. He could be a cornerstone the franchise hasn’t had there since Denis Potvin. Add in the fact that the Islanders also have the Calgary Flames’ pick, the team has a better chance to winning the lottery than quite a few teams.

Edmonton Oilers (5%) — Angry fans might protest Edmonton walking away as another lottery winner, but adding Dahlin to, again, a failing defense would allow a team that already has McDavid and Leon Draisaitl should bounce back to where they left off one year ago. Dahlin would provide the team with the No. 1 defenseman that they currently lack

Carolina Hurricanes (3%) — As the percentage begin to really drop, Carolina would only get richer as the team is already loaded in quality young defensemen and would allow the team to move other defenseman like Justin Faulk and acquire more scoring, which the team badly needs.

Dallas Stars (2%) — The addition of Dahlin along with last year’s third overall pick in Finnish defenseman Miro Heiskanen would make for a deadly combo and that’s not including John Klingberg.

Philadelphia Flyers (1.5% from St. Louis Blues) — Adding Dahlin could put Philadelphia at the same level with Pittsburgh, Washington and Tampa Bay.

Florida Panthers (1%) — The hottest team that didn’t make the playoffs would get a much needed boost if they could hit that 1/100 chance.

 

 

West Notes: Blackhawks, Domi, Nilsson, Vanek

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After years of being active buyers at the trade deadline, it looks like the Blackhawks won’t be doing so this season.  They currently sit in last place in the Central Division and are eight points out of a playoff spot.  Despite that, Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun-Times cautions that Chicago isn’t likely to be overly active on the seller front either.

In terms of their pending free agents, there aren’t prominent ones that would draw considerable interest though blueliners like Jan Rutta and Michal Kempny could be of interest to teams looking for depth.  One defender that they would likely want to move is Brent Seabrook who has struggled this season and still has six years left on his contract at $6.875MM.  However, even if the Blackhawks could find a trade match, Lazerus reports that there is no way Seabrook would consider waiving his no-move clause to facilitate a deal.

More from the Western Conference:

  • Craig Morgan of Arizona Sports spoke with Coyotes GM John Chayka regarding a report from last week that center Max Domi is available. Chayka clarified that they are not shopping the 22-year-old but that he would “listen on anything”.  Domi is in the midst of his worst season with just three goals in 54 games but it’s hard to imagine that Arizona would be willing to sell low on him at this point.
  • Jason Botchford of the Vancouver Province notes that the Canucks have been looking to move goaltender Anders Nilsson. However, he has had quite the rough season, posting a 3.50 GAA and a .903 SV% in 17 appearances this season and has another year left on his deal with a $2.5MM cap hit.  Even though there were four other teams that had interest in him during the summer, it’s hard to imagine those teams will still want him now with the season he is having.
  • Botchford also adds that the Predators might be a team to watch for when it comes to winger Thomas Vanek. He reports that Nashville showed interest in him during the summer and that Vanek’s decision may very well have come between them and the Canucks.  It’s widely expected that Vancouver will be moving the 34-year-old and he would fit in nicely in a bottom-six role with the Predators if they can reach an agreement on a move.

Which Teams Would Have Flexibility In Another Expansion Draft?

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Midway-through the 2017-18 NHL season, it is nearly impossible to predict what rosters could look like following the 2019-20 season, more than two years away. Trades, free agency, and much more shape teams often in ways that no one sees coming. With that said, it seems like another Expansion Draft is coming to add the league’s 32nd team, the Seattle __________, and the timeline most are suggesting is a June 2020 draft date. Like it or not, the general managers of the other 31 NHL need to be keeping that in the back of their mind with each move they make over the next two seasons.

However, it could be that some have already made decisions that could impact their roster protection plans more than two years from now. The structure of the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft will the remain the same, allowing for teams to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie or eight skaters regardless of position and one goalie from being selected. The one caveat that threw more than a few teams for a loop last June was that all players with No-Movement Clauses (NMC) in their contracts had to be protected, unless the players voluntarily chose to wave them i.e. Marc-Andre Fleury. So, with that one aspect of the expansion process in mind, it is possible to look ahead at certain long-term contracts to see, assuming those players don’t waive them ahead of time, who could be locked in for protection in 2020 or which teams will have more flexibility without any such players:

Total Flexibility

Arizona Coyotes (0) – The only NMC players on the Coyotes are defensemen Alex Goligoski and Niklas Hjalmarsson. Hjalmarsson will be a free agent in the summer of the projected Expansion Draft and Goligoski’s clause will have shifted to a Modified No-Trade Clause. Arizona will likely have complete flexibility.

Buffalo Sabres (0) – Kyle Okposo’s NMC expires after this season and Jason Pominville’s contract expires after next season. Buffalo won’t have any restrictions on their protection scheme as of now.

Calgary Flames (0) – There is no one on the roster with a NMC and no one that will predictably get one by the end of the 2019-20 season. Kudos to GM Brad Treliving.

Los Angeles Kings (0) – Kings’ captain Anze Kopitar in their only NMC player right now and even his clause will have shifted to No-Trade by 2020. L.A. is free and clear.

Nashville Predators (0) – GM David Poile does not seem to be a fan of NMC’s in his recent long-term deals and in the new NHL expansion era, that’s a good thing.

New Jersey Devils (0) – see Calgary Flames

New York Islanders (0) – The Andrew Ladd and Johnny Boychuk contracts already look bad for the Isles. They would be much worse if their NMC’s didn’t expire soon. With John Tavares and Josh Bailey both candidates for NMC’s should they re-sign in New York and a defense that needs a re-haul, the Islanders could lose some flexibility, but they should be fine.

Toronto Maple Leafs (0) – The Leafs have no NMC players under contract beyond 2019-20 right now. That could easily change with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in need of extensions, but Toronto should still be in a good spot. After all, those are players that would protected regardless.

Vancouver Canucks (0) – Loui Eriksson’s NMC shifts to a No-Trade Clause following this season and will be an afterthought by 2020. It’s fortunate, as Eriksson’s tenure in Vancouver has not gone according to plan.

Vegas Golden Knights (0) – The Golden Knights didn’t sign or trade for any players with NMC’s and only drafted two – Marc-Andre Fleury and David Clarkson – who already had them and they both expire before the Knights would be set to become the NHL’s second-newest team. With that said, the current Knights’ roster will see a lot of turnover in the next two years and they may struggle to avoid NMC’s completely.

Washington Capitals (0) – GM Brian MacLellan has avoided NMC’s in any of his recent mega-deals. If he can do it again this summer in his attempt to re-sign (or replace) John Carlson, then the Caps will be in good shape for another round of expansion drafting.

Winnipeg Jets (0) – The NMC in Bryan Little’s contract will both kick in and expire between now and June 2020. The Jets should be left with a fully flexible lineup.

Some Flexibility

Boston Bruins (2) – There’s little concern that Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron will still be playing at a high level in two years. Their NMC’s should be a non-factor for Boston. If David Krejci and, especially, David Backes still had their NMC’s too at that time, there would be a real logjam up front. However, both will have shifted to Modified No-Trade Clauses by then, potentially saving the Bruins from making tough decisions about their many talented young forwards.

Carolina Hurricanes (1) – As important a job as he’s had in Carolina, Jordan Staal will never be the star forward that finally puts them over the top. If his NMC causes a problem in 2020, he could easily be traded to a contender to play a complementary role. The Hurricanes need to retain as many promising young forward assets as they can in hopes of one day finding that true superstar.

Colorado Avalanche (1) – There are mixed opinions on Erik Johnson, but he has a leadership role for the Avalanche and will be key in grooming a strong crop of up-and-coming defensive prospects. The Avs won’t lose sleep about having to protect him in expansion, especially if he’s still one of their top-pairing guys in two years.

Columbus Blue Jackets (1) – The Blue Jackets were one of the biggest losers in the most recent Expansion Draft. They might be smart to sell off Nick Foligno if there’s any risk that history repeats itself.

Dallas Stars (3) – Call it optimism about his play in his first season in Dallas, but the NMC for Alexander Radulov doesn’t seem like it will be a major issue even after a couple more years. Of course, Jamie Benn’s NMC will also be a non-factor. Ben Bishop on the other hand may not be the goalie the Stars would prefer to keep in two years. As of now, there’s no immediate competition though.

Detroit Red Wings (1) – Detroit only has one NMC player who will still be under contract in 2020-21 (and another season after that), but it’s Frans Nielsen, who has been a major disappointment for the team since coming over from the New York Islanders. He could throw a wrench in their plans if he continues his downward trend over the next two seasons.

Minnesota Wild (2) – The Ryan Suter and Zach Parise mega-deals will still be making an impact in 2020, but with most of the core locked up throughout that season and no other NMC contract likely on their way, Minnesota should be okay in the Expansion Draft.

Montreal Canadiens (2) – Even if the Canadiens continue to struggle through two more seasons, there will be few Habs fans that blame superstar goalie Carey Price. His NMC won’t be an issue because the team would never dream of leaving him exposed. Jeff Petry on the other hand could be a problem. Luckily (?), it doesn’t look like Montreal will have many defenders worth protecting even in the next couple of seasons.

Ottawa Senators (2) – Some things never change. The NMC’s for Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf were problems for the Senators in this past Expansion Draft and they’ll likely be problems again next time around. If Phaneuf is traded between now and then, that alleviates some concern for Ottawa. Good luck moving the Ryan contract though.

Philadelphia Flyers (1) – Only Claude Giroux has and predictably will have an NMC come June 2020. That’s a pretty safe situation for Philly.

San Jose Sharks (1) – Marc-Edouard Vlasic plays a confident, stay-at-home defensive game that often ages nicely. He looks to be the only NMC in San Jose in 2020, which shouldn’t cause a stir.

St. Louis Blues (1) – Patrik Berglund will be on the wrong side of 30 and still under a NMC when the potential 2020 draft rolls around, but with the rest of their core signed long-term without NMC’s, the Blues should be pretty safe.

Tampa Bay Lightning (2) – Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman may be the two safest NMC contracts in the NHL. Fortunately, Ryan Callahan’s otherwise-problematic NMC expires just prior to projected 2020 Expansion Draft.

Little Flexibility

Anaheim Ducks (3) – Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Kesler will all be 35+ and still be NMC-protected in 2020. That’s a large chunk of your protected forwards to dedicate to players in the twilight of their careers. Some up-and-coming young talent could leave Anaheim again in this next Expansion Draft a la Shea Theodore.

Chicago Blackhawks (4) – The downside to signing all of your core players to long contracts with NMC’s could hit the Blackhawks hard in the next Expansion Draft. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews will be well past 30 and Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith will be in their mid-to-late 30’s during the 2020-21 season, but all four will need to be protected ahead of that season, which could force other promising younger players out of Chicago’s protection scheme. At least they’ll narrowly avoid having an issue in net with Corey Crawford’s contract expiring prior.

Edmonton Oilers (2) – Milan Lucic and Kris Russell. Each two years older than they are now. Those aren’t exactly players that a team wants to be forced to keep. It’s foreseeable that one or both could have a negative impact on the team’s protection plan.

Florida Panthers (3) – The Panthers probably won’t mind having three players locked up come Expansion 2.0. The team knew what they were doing when they signed Keith Yandle long-term. Even in his mid-30’s, Yandle will be a reliable player and a leader for the young Florida defensive core. Sure, they considered asking him to waive his NMC this past June, but they never actually did. Yandle won’t be a major issue in two years unless his play falls off considerably. There should be no concern whatsoever over Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov, whose NMC’s kick in later on in their contracts. The same might not be true about Evgeni Dadonov, whose been somewhat underwhelming so far in Florida, but luckily his contract runs out just prior the probable draft date.

New York Rangers (4) – Although they will have near total control over their forwards, outside of Mika Zibanejad, the Rangers could be in a tough position with their protection schemes in net and on the blue line in 2020. Then-38-year-old Henrik Lundqvist will require protection, as will underachieving defensemen Kevin Shattenkirk and Marc Staal. New York is apparently readying themselves for somewhat of a rebuild, which could mean some of those players are traded beforehand. Otherwise New York could face quite the dilemma.

Pittsburgh Penguins (4) – It seems unlikely, even years from now and in their mid-30’s, that the NMC’s for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, or Phil Kessel would cause trouble for the Penguins. Injury-prone defenseman Kris Letang could be different though. Being forced to protect him after another two seasons of hard minutes could be difficult to swallow. Pittsburgh also has some work to do filling out the forward corps between now and 2020. GM Jim Rutherford would be well-served to avoid acquiring or handing out any further NMC’s.

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