Brayden Point

Snapshots: NHL Draft, Suter, Point

September 8, 2020 at 11:32 am CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

The 2020 NHL Entry Draft will be held a few days earlier than expected, as Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports that it has been moved up to October 6-7. The change is thanks to a playoffs that is moving along briskly, with the first game of both conference finals already in the books.

An earlier draft only makes it even more imperative for teams like the Arizona Coyotes to get a new GM in place over the next few weeks, though it’s already probably too late for a new executive to really make his mark on the draft process. Even though four teams are still working to win the Stanley Cup, the offseason is fast approaching.

Pius Suter is headed back to Switzerland for the time being, as expected. The 24-year old Chicago Blackhawks forward has been loaned to GCK Lions of the Swiss second league until training camp starts in North America. Suter signed a one-year deal with the Blackhawks a few months ago after winning the MVP in Switzerland’s top league.
Brayden Point has become one of the very best players in the entire NHL, and Chris Johnston of Sportsnet examines his early case for the Conn Smythe trophy this year. Point now has 23 points in 14 postseason games and is an obvious leader on the Tampa Bay Lightning roster, but is in just the first year of a contract that carries a $6.75MM cap hit. While he’ll still be a restricted free agent in 2022 when this deal expires, Point will be owed a $9MM qualifying offer and could easily become one of the highest-paid players in the entire league.

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Tampa Bay Lightning

January 5, 2020 at 5:57 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

With the holiday season wrapping up, PHR will continue its look at what teams are thankful for as we get closer to the halfway point. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Tampa Bay Lightning.

What are the Lightning most thankful for?

The fact that they are still in it.

After a dominant 2018-19 season in which Tampa Bay ran away with the Atlantic Division and the President’s Trophy with a dominant 62-16-4 for 128 points and no significant changes to its team, most expected another dominant season once again. That has not happened with the team, almost luckily, sitting in third place in a challenging Atlantic Division as a recent six-game winning streak has improved their record to a more respectable 23-13-4 record. The team seems to have found its game in the last few weeks and hopefully will force their way back to the top of the standings.

Who are the Lightning most thankful for?

Victor Hedman.

The 2017-18 Norris Trophy winner has had several great seasons, but the 29-year-old is on pace for career highs across the board. Through 38 games, Hedman has nine goals and 30 assists, which would translate to a point-per-game season, something he’s never accomplished in his remarkable career. Of course, with so many strong defensive candidates this year, he might have a hard time trying to get nominated for the award, but the defenseman has been a rock for Tampa Bay in a tough first half.

What would the Lightning be even more thankful for?

Better goaltending.

Andrei Vasilevskiy, the 2018-19 Vezina Trophy winner had a dominant season last year, posting a 2.40 GAA and a .925 save percentage in 53 appearances. However, this year has been a totally different story as the 25-year-old has been less impressive with a 2.83 GAA and a .909 save percentage. Those numbers aren’t terrible, but hardly numbers you’d expect to see out of last year’s Vezina Trophy winner.

Unfortunately, the team isn’t getting better help from the backup position. The Lightning brought in veteran Curtis McElhinney to create a dominant tandem with Vasilevskiy, but the 36-year-old has struggled in his first year in Tampa after an impressive season with the Carolina Hurricanes last year. He currently has a 3.19 GAA and a .904 save percentage in 11 appearances. The team needs both netminders to bounce back and have a dominant second half.

What should be on the Lightning’s Holiday Wish List?

The team hasn’t gotten the dominant individual performances that they did a year ago. Nikita Kucherov has been impressive, but is well below his 41-goal, 128-point season that netted him the Hart, Art Ross and Ted Lindsay trophies a year ago. Kucherov so far has just 14 goals and 43 points, which would be solid numbers for almost everyone else on the team, but not so much for Kucherov. The team has seen a number of forwards slip as Brayden Point, Mathieu Joseph and Yanni Gourde, to name a few, have struggled more this year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Snapshots: Hall Of Fame, Point, Greene

October 10, 2019 at 3:59 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

The American Hockey League has announced their 2020 Hall of Fame class, which includes Robbie Ftorek, Denis Hamel, Darren Haydar and Fred Thurier. The induction ceremony is scheduled for January 27th. Thurier, one of the first real stars of the AHL, will be honored more than 20 years after he died at the age of 82. When he retired in 1952 he had the most points of any professional hockey player and then subsequently served as a linesman for nearly a decade.

More notes from around the league:

Not only will Brayden Point be back on the ice tonight for the Tampa Bay Lightning, but he’ll be centering what should be one of the most talented lines in the NHL. According to Mark Masters of TSN, Point will skate between Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov on the team’s top line, a trio that totaled 318 points last season. That will be quite the task for the Toronto Maple Leafs, who are trying to bounce back after losing consecutive games to the Montreal Canadiens and St. Louis Blues.
The New Jersey Devils won’t have captain Andy Greene in the lineup as they try to bounce back against the Edmonotn Oilers tonight. Greene is being evaluated for an upper-body injury and has already been ruled out. The 36-year old defenseman has already been asked to do a little less this season, averaging fewer than 19 minutes a night through the first three games. If that number continued, it would be the lowest number Greene has averaged since 2008-09.

Kalle Kossila Placed On Waivers, Gemel Smith Clears

October 8, 2019 at 11:10 am CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

The Toronto Maple Leafs have put Kalle Kossila on waivers today according to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet, indicating that the forward is ready to return from injury. Kossila will likely start the season with the Toronto Marlies should he clear, though there’s a chance the NHL club would want to see what he can do as well after signing him to a two-year contract earlier this summer.

Now 26, Kossila was an undrafted free agent signing out of St. Cloud State in 2016 after he dominated the college ranks to the tune of 54 points as a senior. The undersized forward actually didn’t take long to make an impact at the AHL level, but never got much of an opportunity with the Anaheim Ducks. Now in Toronto he could serve as some injury insurance but will most likely play a big role on the Marlies as they try to get back to the Calder Cup.

In addition, Tampa Bay Lightning forward Gemel Smith actually cleared waivers and has been assigned to the Syracuse Crunch, though his placement there wasn’t reported yesterday. Smith has played in three games for the Lightning this season, but with Brayden Point nearing a return the team can afford to move out a forward. Point was taking part in powerplay practice today and could potentially return on Thursday against the Maple Leafs.

Atlantic Notes: Point, Paquette, Caufield, Athanasiou

October 5, 2019 at 9:07 am CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Tampa Bay center Brayden Point appears to be close to returning to the lineup. Bryan Burns of the Lightning’s website notes (Twitter link) that Point could be ready to go for the Canadian portion of their upcoming road trip which comes on Thursday. Point was one of the prominent restricted free agents this summer and eventually agreed to a three-year contract, one that allowed the team to not have to move anyone else out to fit him in but also guarantees him a $9MM qualifying offer one year in advance of being eligible to become an unrestricted free agent. Meanwhile, Burns notes that center Cedric Paquette is still two weeks away from returning after sustaining an undisclosed injury late last month.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Tampa Bay Lightning

September 29, 2019 at 12:30 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Current Cap Hit: $79,773,331 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Mikhail Sergachev (one year, $894K)
F Alexander Volkov (one year, $864K)
F Mitchell Stephens (one year, $833K)
F Anthony Cirelli (one year, $728K)
F Mathieu Joseph (one year, $728K)
D Erik Cernak (one year, $698K)

Potential Bonuses

Sergachev: $850K
Cirelli: $183K
Joseph: $183K
Cernak: $148K

The Tampa Bay Lightning have done exceedingly well with their young players as they always seem to have key contributors filling out their roster who are on low-cost salaries. Unfortunately for the team all of those entry-level contracts will be expiring after this season. However, for a team that is fighting for a Stanley Cup title, the Lightning should be happy to have several of these players around for this year.

At the top of the list is Sergachev, who came over in the Jonathan Drouin trade a couple of seasons ago. Sergachev has improved greatly, but is still battling for a top-four role, one which he may win this season as he continues to develop his skills. The 21-year-old already has 15 goals and 72 points over two seasons, but spent most of his time last year as a third-line option for Tampa Bay. The team hopes he can win a spot on the first line and earn some power play time to allow his offensive skills to kick in for the Lightning. Another strong season could force Tampa Bay to pay up significantly for him. The team also got some impressive play from Cernak last season who came up and found a permanent home with his physical play.

Cirelli and Joseph have made an impact for Tampa Bay as well. After an solid stint back in 2017-18, Cirelli had a breakout season, scoring 19 goals and 39 points last season and could take another step up this season with J.T. Miller gone. Joseph surprised quite a few when he made the team last year out of training camp, posting 13 goals and 26 points in a third-line role most of the time. The opportunities may continue to increase for the 22-year-old who has showed a hard-working mentality as well as solid skill.

Both Stephens and Volkov are in their last year of their entry-level contract, but both could see time up with the Lightning at some point this season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Mike Condon ($2.4MM, UFA — buried at $1.33MM)
D Kevin Shattenkirk ($1.75MM, UFA)
D Jan Rutta ($1.3MM, UFA)
G Louis Domingue ($1.15MM, UFA) — buried at $75K)
F Pat Maroon ($900K, UFA)
F Danick Martel ($700K, RFA)
D Luke Schenn ($700K, UFA)

In their pursuit of a Stanley Cup, the team went out and acquired some veteran players to help the team for this year. They signed Shattenkirk immediately after being bought out from the New York Rangers to give the team a key veteran after they lost Anton Stralman and Dan Girardi in the offseason. The team hopes Shattenkirk can find his game and stay healthy this year and be able to provide quality minutes. They also hope Schenn can provide solid depth and physicality at the bottom of their lineup. On offense, the team also went out and signed Maroon to add some grit to their fourth line after the team lost Ryan Callahan to injury. Callahan was very productive in his time with the Lightning, but injuries derailed his last couple of years.

To unload the final year of Callahan’s contract, the Lightning traded him to Ottawa and were forced to accept Condon, who the team has already buried in the minors to give the team more cap flexibility. Domingue has been buried in the AHL as well.

Two Years Remaining

D Braydon Coburn ($1.7MM, UFA)
F Cedric Paquette ($1.65MM, UFA)
G Curtis McElhinney ($1.3MM, UFA)
D Luke Witkowski ($700K, UFA)

Despite a solid backup in Domingue, the Lightning surprised quite a few people when they inked McElhinney to a two-year deal, plucking him away from a number of interested teams. The 36-year-old veteran had an impressive season after being claimed by Carolina at the beginning of last season. McElhinney appeared in 33 games, picking up 20 wins with a 2.58 GAA and a .912 save percentage. The hope is the veteran will provide some extra insurance and maybe take some of the workload off the starter this season.

The team also has high hopes that bringing back Coburn as well as a gritty multi-versatile player like Witkowski will give Tampa Bay some much needed depth on their blueline.

Three Years Remaining

F Brayden Point ($6.75MM, RFA)
F Ondrej Palat ($5.3MM, UFA)

The Lightning has done exactly what it wants to do with Point, which was get him signed to a three-year bridge deal, something the team does with all its players before locking them up to long-term deals. Now the team has three more years to evaluate him before they have to lock him up to a long-term deal. The deal is actually quite reasonable, considering how much the center has excelled in each of his three seasons. Point’s rookie season was solid with 18 goals, but that number increased to a 32-goal campaign in 2017-18 and he followed that up with a 41-goal, 92-point season last year, making him one of the top young forwards in the game. Regardless, the team was able to sign him for a reasonable cost, giving the Lightning another strong presence at a discounted rate.

On the other hand, Palat may be the opposite of Point. Having struggled with injuries the past couple of seasons, the 28-year-old has appeared in just 120 out of 164 games over the past two seasons and scored a disappointing eight goals in 64 games last year as he’s slipped to a third-line role after a promising 23-goal rookie season back in 2013-14. Since then he’s scored in the teens, but has seen those numbers dip even further with his injury history. Unfortunately, at $5.3MM, the team hopes he can get healthy and rebound as he would be a hard player to find a trade partner for.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Nikita Kucherov ($9.5MM through 2026-27)
F Steven Stamkos ($8.5MM through 2023-24)
D Victor Hedman ($7.88MM through 2024-25)
D Ryan McDonagh ($6.75MM through 2025-26)
F Yanni Gourde ($5.17MM through 2024-25)
F Tyler Johnson ($5MM through 2023-24)
F Alex Killorn ($4.45MM through 2022-23)
G Andrei Vasilevskiy ($3.5MM in 2019-20; $9.5MM through 2027-28)

The team has done a phenomenal job of signing their top talent. Kucherov is arguably one of the top three players in the league and is now just starting his eight-year contract at a reasonable $9.5MM. The 26-year-old scored 41 goals and 128 points to win the Hart Memorial Trophy, Art Ross Trophy and the Ted Lindsay Award and should be one of the greats for the Lightning for a long time. Stamkos also continues to put up big numbers for someone whose $8.5MM deal looks pretty good. He potted 45 goals last season and a career-high 98 points, which gives Tampa Bay an impressive one-two punch, which doesn’t even include Point.

The Lightning also has quite a bit tied up into their top two defensemen in Hedman and McDonagh. Hedman is one of the top defensemen in the league, only a year removed from winning the Norris Trophy in 2017-18. He posted an impressive 12 goals and 54 points last season and remains in his prime. It’s too early to see how he will fare as he gets older as his contract will run through his age-34 season. But by the time Hedman truly slows down, there shouldn’t be that much time remaining on his deal. As for McDonagh, the team’s second-best defenseman still posted solid numbers, nine goals and 46 points. However, he is two years older than Hedman and has a seventh year remaining on his contract, meaning he’ll be 37 in his final season, which suggests that his contract could become an issue even in just a few years.

As for Gourde, Johnson and Killorn, the team hopes that with the salary cap likely rising over the next few years, those role players’ deals will still look good, if not very good as they age. All have become solid contributors as middle-six players and hopefully will give the team good value over the next four or five years.

Buyouts

D Matt Carle (1.83MM in 2019-20)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Point
Worst Value: Palat

Looking Ahead

The job that Steve Yzerman has done to get the franchise to this point, which might be one of the most impressive organizations that have been built, is impressive and the hope that Julien BriseBois will continue that success in Tampa Bay. The team had an amazing regular season a year ago, but a quick exit in the playoffs left many to wonder whether the team is as good as many think. However, BriseBois has done a good job bringing in some more veterans as well as some grit in hopes that this offensive team doesn’t get pushed around too much this year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

East Notes: Nassau, Adams, Neuvirth, Point

September 23, 2019 at 4:08 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 3 Comments

The New York Islanders have moved an additional seven games from Barclays Center to Nassau Coliseum during the upcoming season, taking the total to 28 of the team’s home games. That announcement comes just following the ceremony to break ground at the new Belmont Park arena today, at which Governor Andrew Cuomo kicked off the $1.3 billion redevelopment.

The new arena is expected to be ready for the 2021-22 season and will hold 19,000 people. After years of uncertainty, the Islanders organization is finally getting some structure and stability off the ice and will try to emulate that once again on it under head coach Barry Trotz and GM Lou Lamoriello.

The Buffalo Sabres have promoted former NHL forward Kevyn Adams to senior vice president of business administration, according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet. The position isn’t associated with the hockey operations department, but will keep Adams in the organization after serving as GM of the Harbor Center previously. Adams played 607 games in the NHL over a lengthy career that included winning a Stanley Cup with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2006. He retired in 2008 and also served as an assistant coach with the Sabres in the past.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are headed to Montreal to take on the Canadiens this evening, but one player who was supposed to make the trip won’t be going. Michal Neuvirth was scheduled to play part of the game as he continues to battle with Michael Hutchinson for the Maple Leafs backup role, but will be replaced by prospect Joseph Woll. Head coach Mike Babcock told reporters including Kristen Shilton of TSN that Neuvirth “wasn’t feeling up to playing” tonight, after missing time recently with minor injuries. Minor injuries could seemingly be permanently discussed when it comes to Neuvirth, who hasn’t been able to stay consistently healthy throughout his career and now finds himself missing crucial time in his pursuit of a roster spot. The 31-year old goaltender is just on a professional tryout with the Maple Leafs, with cuts coming in the next few days for the team.
Though he finally signed today, Brayden Point won’t be on the Tampa Bay Lightning roster anytime soon. GM Julien BriseBois told reporters on a conference call that Point had hip surgery earlier this summer and is not expected to be back in the lineup until late October. While it’s obviously bad news that he won’t be ready for opening day, this may actually give the young forward enough time to get his game right after missing most of training camp already. The Lightning will have to make due without him for now and hope he can come back at full-strength in a few weeks.

Tampa Bay Lightning Sign Brayden Point

September 23, 2019 at 12:10 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 21 Comments

The Tampa Bay Lightning have signed restricted free agent Brayden Point to a three-year contract, ending the long negotiation in time for him to get on the ice before the season begins. Point’s new contract will carry an average annual value of $6.75MM. GM Julien BriseBois explained his excitement for the deal:

We are very pleased to re-sign Brayden today. He is the consummate professional with an unwavering commitment to team success, growing as a player and improving every day. It is that mindset that makes him an outstanding role model, teammate and person, on and off the ice. We look forward to getting Brayden back on the ice with his Lightning teammates as soon as possible.

A three-year bridge deal continues the Tampa Bay tradition with their top players, and provides them with a chance to get some incredible excess value over the next few seasons. The Lightning have previously signed Nikita Kucherov and Andrei Vasilevskiy to similar three-year deals that turned out extremely well for the team before locking them into long-term contract extensions as they approached free agency for the second time. That’s likely the same plan they have for Point, as this contract will leave him an RFA in 2022 though a $9MM qualifying offer will give Point a potential avenue to get to unrestricted free agency. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic provides the full breakdown:

2019-20: $1.9MM salary + $4.25MM signing bonus
2020-21: $2.5MM salary + $3.5MM signing bonus
2021-22: $9.0MM salary

Even though they only lock him in for three years at this price, a $6.75MM salary seems incredibly reasonable for a player of Point’s talents. The 23-year old center has transformed himself into one of the most dynamic two-way centers in the league, scoring 41 goals and 92 points last season while also being nominated for the Selke Trophy as one of the league’s best defensive forwards. A third-round pick in 2014 that had questions around his skating and upside at the professional level, Point has improved dramatically every season and now has 91 goals and 198 points in 229 career regular season games.

This new salary does make Point the third-highest paid forward on the Lightning behind Kucherov and Steven Stamkos, but leaves the Lightning with some wiggle room under the cap. The team now projects to have about $1.7MM in cap space with a 23-man roster, something that seemed impossible at the start of the offseason. Tampa Bay recorded one of the best regular seasons in NHL history last year and will head into 2019-20 with a very similar group. Though Anton Stralman, J.T. Miller and Dan Girardi are gone, the team replaced them with names like Kevin Shattenkirk, Patrick Maroon and Luke Schenne. The fact that many of the team’s other role players have been retained is a testament to how well the front office has navigated the cap over the last several years.

That difficult path won’t end now though. With Point’s deal in place and an extension for Vasilevskiy kicking in for 2020-21, the team will once again be facing a severe cap crunch. With that in mind, there will be even more pressure to perform this year and find more postseason success than they had in 2019.

With another RFA off the board, the focus now turns to Matthew Tkachuk, Mikko Rantanen, Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor to get contracts finalized before the season starts. Given Point’s status as arguably the best (or at least most valuable thanks to his position) of that group, this deal should help provide a template for potential bridge deals in other cities. Mitch Marner, who signed a six-year $65MM deal recently, may give the other end of the spectrum and provide a template for a long-term deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Atlantic Notes: Backes, Domingue, Malgin

September 21, 2019 at 8:56 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 3 Comments

The Boston Bruins are relatively set at the forward position. In fact, there is only one rotation spot that isn’t already set and that’s the third-line right wing position. However, one veteran isn’t guaranteed a job, according to The Athletic’s Joe McDonald (subscription required). David Backes will have to win the job if he wants to stay in the league.

The 35-year-old struggled badly last season with just seven goals and 20 points in 70 games and even saw himself used as a healthy scratch during several games during the Bruins Stanley Cup playoff run. He has two years remaining at $6MM per season, however, that will not be enough to guarantee a spot. However, Backes has spent the summer re-training his body to make sure he stays in the Bruins rotation. While in the past, Backes has played in just three preseason games to gear up for the regular season, he may have to play more this year as he fights for his job.

“In the past I’ve had a more secure role and spot and used (preseason) games as a warmup and had a target date of (opening night) to build up to that,” said Backes. “This year is more of staring down the face of my first preseason game and I need to be going all out and prove myself every shift. Ideally, it’s three games but that’s not in my control and when I’m out there I need to do my best.”

After clearing waivers today, Puckpedia reports that the Tampa Bay Lightning can now send goaltender Louis Domingue to the Syracuse Crunch and can bury his salary in the AHL. With that move, his buried cap hit will just be $75K and the team will save $1.08MM on their salary cap. The Lightning are now projected to have $9.2MM in cap space available with 21 players under contract with one more player remaining to sign — restricted free agent Brayden Point.
The Athletic’s George Richards reports that he believes that Florida Panthers forward Denis Malgin is likely to make the team as would have to clear waivers in order to be sent to the Springfield Thunderbirds in the AHL. Malgin has averaged approximately 49 games over the past three seasons, but hasn’t made major offensive contributions to the team. He scored just seven goals last year. However, throw in that Malgin is on a one-way deal and would still make $750K regardless of where he plays, the 22-year-old might be better served staying with Florida.

East Notes: Point, Devils, Montour

September 19, 2019 at 4:03 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

Brayden Point and the Tampa Bay Lightning remain far apart in contract negotiations according to his agent Gerry Johansson, who joined Sportsnet radio this morning. Johansson admitted that the two sides are talking and that a bridge deal could be possible:

We’re just sort of poking around at different options and trying to find some common ground. Hopefully move this forward. There’s nothing wrong with a bridge deal at all, especially the way this market might go in the next five years.

We don’t really have a grand plan. If we could get Brayden into Tampa Bay this afternoon we would do that. So we don’t have some grand scheme to manage this long-term. We’re just taking the next step. We’re talking with Tampa, that’s the good news. Hopefully we can get something done, and if not we’ll figure it out then.

Point’s negotiation was never expected to take this long after the Lightning were able to lock up the rest of their core so easily, but this summer has had a different market altogether. Even if Johansson and his client are flexible, they also have seen the Mitch Marner deal come through and admitted today that it’s “certainly a mark on the board that [they] work off of.” The Lightning begin their season on October 3rd against the Florida Panthers.

The New Jersey Devils have a new president, as Harris Blitzer Sports & Entertainment has appointed Jake Reynolds to that position. Reynolds will “oversee all business, revenue, strategy and operations” for the organization, working alongside Ray Shero who serves as executive vice president and general manager. Hugh Weber, who has served in the president role since 2013 will move up the ranks in HBSE.
If the Buffalo Sabres were still planning on moving a defenseman before the season starts, they may have to think again. The team announced today that Brandon Montour will be out for the rest of the preseason after suffering a hand injury and will update his status after training camp. Montour was acquired from the Anaheim Ducks last season and brought big expectations, but isn’t off to a great start for the 2019-20 season. The Sabres still have a glut of defenseman in the organization, but with Montour, Zach Bogosian and Matt Hunwick all out of the picture at the moment things are starting to thin out.

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