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PHR Originals: 9/12/16 – 9/18/16

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Here is a look at the original content and analysis from the Pro Hockey Rumors staff over the past week:

  • Gavin Lee and Glenn Miller both looked at compelling restricted free agents in 2017. Gavin focused on Artemi Panarin among others while Glenn wrote about Bo Horvat and three other future RFA’s.
  • Finally, Mike Furlano outlined the reasoning for new goalie equipment rules after Bill Daly appeared on Sirius XM. Similar to the changes put in place following the strike, Mike details the changes that are coming to goalie pants regulations.

Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Pearson, Donskoi, Horvat, Gudbranson

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Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated the negotiation process.

Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we finish up in the Pacific Division.

Tanner Pearson (Los Angeles) – Pearson is a solid, two-way winger who has seen a fair amount of action on a line with Jeff Carter and Tyler Toffoli affectionately referred to as “That 70’s Line.” He tallied 15 goals and 36 points in 2015-16 and has a scoring rate of 0.43 Pts/Game in 146 career contests. Pearson is currently slated to make $1.4MM in the second and final season of a two-year deal.

Pearson’s career production is similar to that of two recent RFA signees: J.T. Miller of the Rangers and Cody Eakin of the Stars. Miller posted career-best totals of 22 goals, 21 assists and 43 points in 2015-16 and has a career scoring rate of 0.52 Pts/Game. Eakin has a career Pts/Game rate of 0.45 and has scored at least 35 points in each of the last three seasons as Dallas’ third center.

Statistically, Pearson would seem to match up well with Eakin meaning another season of 35 – 40 points could line him up to receive something similar to the four-year, $15.4MM $3.875MM AAV) deal Eakin is set to play under beginning this season. But if the Kings and Pearson can’t get a long-term deal done, it’s possible the two-year, $5.5MM ($2.75MM AAV) bridge contract of Miller works as a comparable.

Joonas Donskoi (San Jose) – Donskoi was a surprisingly steady producer for the Sharks and played a key role in helping San Jose reach the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time in franchise history in 2015-16. Given his first taste of North American pro hockey, the Finnish winger contributed 36 points in 76 contests and added another 12 points in the playoffs. Donskoi seemed to find chemistry with Logan Couture this past season and if given another opportunity to play on the skilled pivot’s wing, he could cross the 40-point plateau in 2016-17.

Production-wise, Donskoi would appear to be close enough to Pearson’s level that the Miller and Eakin contracts should serve as fair comparisons. Another possible comparable who would appear to set the floor of Donskoi’s expectations is Michael Raffl, who after seasons of 28 and 31 points, respectively, inked a three-year, $7.05MM ($2.35MM AAV) pact with the Flyers. Both started their professional careers in Europe and jumped to the NHL in their mid-20’s. If Donskoi’s production takes a step back from his rookie level, he could be looking at a new deal in the same range as Raffl’s.

Bo Horvat (Vancouver) – After a solid debut campaign as a 19-year-old rookie two years ago with the Canucks, Horvat bumped his production up from 25 points to 40 points as a sophomore in 2016-17. He has the skill and ability to improve his numbers even further in his third season if given an opportunity for top-six ice time.

If Horvat can take the next step to 50 points or so, a new contract could be similar to that of Nick Bjugstad’s in Florida. After netting 38 points in his first full campaign, Bjugstad tallied 43 in 201-15 and was rewarded with a six-year, $24.6MM deal which took effect upon the expiration of his ELC. Both players are versatile enough to play up and down the lineup and fill a variety of roles. The Canucks will have to be frugal, however, as they already have more than $52MM tied up in 14 players for 2017-18 leaving roughly $20MM or so – depending on where the cap ceiling falls – to re-sign several key RFAs. It’s possible they push for a less expensive bridge deal as a result.

Erik Gudbranson (Vancouver) – The Canucks took some criticism when they dealt 19-year-old Jared McCann, the team’s first-round pick in 2014, and two draft choices for Gudbranson this past May. It’s not that Gudbranson isn’t a good player; it’s more that the Canucks aren’t likely to be a playoff squad in 2016-17 and shouldn’t be sacrificing controllable young talent for a player who is set to get pretty expensive.

Gudbranson inked a one-year pact worth $3.5MM soon after the trade and will again be a RFA after the upcoming season. With five years of NHL experience already under his belt, Gudbranson will be just two seasons away from unrestricted free agency following the 2016-17 campaign. That means any long-term extension is likely going to buy out multiple free agent seasons.

Gudbranson is a physical, defense-first blue liner, who doesn’t contribute much offense. His single-season career-high in points scored is just 13. Obviously Gudbranson will be looking for a raise on his $3.5MM salary. One potential comparable for Gudbranson is Adam Larsson, who signed a six-year, $25MM extension and like the Vancouver defender is known more for his defense than his offense. But Larsson’s deal took effect on the conclusion of his ELC and only bought out a single free agent year.

A closer comparable may be Canadiens defenseman Alexei Emelin, who is also a defense-first blue liner with a career high in points of just 17. He is in the midst of a four-year deal with an AAV of $4.1MM.

With most teams favoring mobile, puck-moving defenders over tough, physical defensive defenseman like Gudbranson, it will be interesting to see what value they place on the big blue liner.

 

Snapshots: Canucks, Avalanche, Nielsen, Donskoi

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Many pundits feel the Vancouver Canucks are a team lacking direction. On the one hand, they introduced some much-needed youth to their aging core last season with young forwards Jake Virtanen and Jared McCann given their first extended NHL looks and joining second-year pro Bo Horvat as possible future building blocks. On the other hand, Vancouver failed to advance their rebuild by dealing expiring assets at the trade deadline for draft picks and/or prospects. Trading Dan Hamhuis and/or Radim Vrbata would have netted the Canucks multiple futures to further the team’s roster reconstruction.

Instead, the Canucks surprised many this spring by parting with the aforementioned McCann as part of a package to acquire veteran defenseman Erik Gudbranson in what was clearly a move designed to help the team win now. The free agent addition of winger Loui Eriksson also signals that Vancouver is not committed to a rebuild and will rather try to slowly integrate younger players onto the roster while at the same time attempting to remain in the mix for a playoff spot.

It’s with this mentality that GM Jim Benning continues his search for an impact offensive LW, as Ben Kuzma of The Province writes. Daniel Sedin remains the team’s top port side winger and the team expects young Sven Baertschi – currently listed as the team’s #2 LW – to improve upon his 15-goal output in 2015-16. Beyond those two the Canucks have a few wingers who can line up on either side of center – including Eriksson – but don’t have enough depth to switch a player to the left without creating another hole on the right side.

Kuzma lists several candidates who could fill the role of impact LW, both internal and external. The most interesting might be Anton Rodin, the team’s second-round pick in 2009 and whom the Canucks signed to a one-year deal worth just $950K. Rodin enjoyed an excellent 2015-16 campaign, netting 16 goals and 37 points in 33 contests with Brynas IF of the Swedish Elite League while capturing the league’s MVP award.

As for possibilities currently outside the Canucks organization, Kuzma lists Evander Kane as a potential trade option – a notion we’ve reported on in the past –  though he also brings up the off-ice issues surrounding Buffalo’s talented winger and suggests that might limit Vancouver’s interest. Kuzma also opines that the cost to acquire an established player like Kane would likely start with one of Chris Tanev or Horvat, and that’s simply a price the Canucks are unwilling to pay.

Surprisingly, Kuzma writes that the Canucks didn’t view Jiri Hudler as a short-term answer even though the Czech winger is just two seasons removed from a 76-point campaign and ultimately signed a one-year pact with Dallas worth $2MM. Hudler would have been a perfectly reasonable buy-low add for the Canucks. He’s capable of producing at a rate more than acceptable for a top-six forward and would have been a potentially valuable asset to possess at the 2017 deadline with contending teams always looking to augment their scoring depth.

Elsewhere in the NHL on this Labor Day:

  • At his introductory news conference last week, new Colorado head coach Jared Bednar confirmed he would be keeping all three assistant coaches – Tim Army, Dave Farrish and Nolan Pratt – from the previous regime, according to Terry Frei of the Denver Post. It’s not much of a surprise given the late hiring of Bednar meant that many coaches he may have considered for positions were already committed elsewhere. Additionally, Pratt worked under Bednar as an assistant with Lake Erie in 2015-16 so there was already a comfort level between the two coaches. After talking with each of his assistants, Bednar is satisfied he has the right mix of experience and knowledge among his staff.
  • An unheralded free agent signing by the Sharks in May of 2015, Joonas Donskoi would end up playing a key role for the Western Conference champions in 2015-16, scoring 11 goals and 36 points in 76 regular season games. He would ramp up his performance in the playoffs tallying six goals and 12 points in 24 contests. Now that Donskoi has established himself as an NHL regular, the expectations have been raised going into year two of his career, as Kevin Kurz of CSN Bay Area writes. After establishing solid chemistry with C Logan Couture, both down the stretch of the regular campaign and in the postseason, Donskoi is again likely to slot in on the right side of the skilled pivot. If he takes advantage of his opportunity to play with Couture, it’s conceivable Donskoi could approach 50 points in a full season.
  • After losing superstar center Pavel Datsyuk, who chose to return home to Russia to be closer to his family, the Detroit Red Wings were left with a gaping hole down the middle of their lineup. They attempted to address that loss in part by signing solid two-way pivot Frans Nielsen to a lucrative six-year, $31.5MM free agent deal this summer. While he won’t be expected to replace Datsyuk’s offense, he will be counted on to play a responsible game and appear in all situations for the Wings, says Ansar Khan of MLive.com. Nielsen has only ever tallied 20 goals or 50 points on two occasions but is known as an excellent playmaker and someone who should help improve both the Wings PP and PK units. He is also an elite shootout performer who might be worth an extra few standings points a year to Detroit in that area alone.

West Notes: Blues, Horvat, Domi

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When center David Backes left St. Louis to sign a five year, $30MM contract with Boston at the beginning of the month, he vacated the captaincy for the Blues in the process.  Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggests that defenseman Alex Pietrangelo may be ready to take over the role.

Pietrangelo has been a mainstay on the back end for St. Louis for the past six seasons and has been among their leaders in ice time and points from the blueline in each year.  In 2015-16, he served as an alternate captain and played in 73 games with the Blues, picking up 37 points while averaging 26:18 of ice time per game, the sixth highest average in the league.

Blues GM Doug Armstrong had plenty of good things to say about Pietrangelo when it comes to his leadership:

“He was an assistant captain at a young age and he has leadership qualities that we’ve seen.  As he gets more and more comfortable in the leadership role he’s certainly growing into an elite player that has a presence on the ice.”

If the Blues decide to go with more of a veteran as their next captain, Alex Steen, who has spent the last nine seasons with St. Louis, is the other likely candidate for the post.

More from the Western Conference:

  • In an interview with Ben Kuzma of the Vancouver Province, Canucks center Bo Horvat acknowledged that the plan last season was for him to ease into a second line role. However, multiple injuries to Brandon Sutter thrusted Horvat into that role quicker than planned which played a part in his early-season struggles.  While he finished strong last year (27 of his 40 points came in the second half), Horvat may be pencilled in behind Sutter and Henrik Sedin on the depth chart to start next season.
  • Coyotes forward Max Domi is a big fan of Arizona’s additions this offseason, telling TSN.ca that their moves have been “amazing”. The Coyotes have added blueliners Alex Goligoski and Luke Schenn as well as winger Jamie McGinn in the last month.  Domi was Arizona’s top point getter amongst their forwards last season as a rookie, collecting 18 goals and 34 assists in 81 games.  The 21 year old also believes the Coyotes can take another step forward in 2016-17 and reach the playoffs for the first time since 2012.

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