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Latest From Insider Trading: Dubas, Treliving, Maple Leafs Core Four, Carbery

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In the most recent edition of TSN’s Insider Trading, some of the top insiders from around the NHL got together to speak on some of the news from behind the scenes. With most teams already shifting into offseason mode, and coaches and general managers being hired, fired and agreeing to part ways, there is all kinds of tidbits of information to chew on. First, Chris Johnston reports even though former Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas said a week ago that he would return to the Maple Leafs or take time off this upcoming season, his mind may have shifted already. Johnston mentions that Dubas made those comments when he was still in negotiations with the Maple Leafs on a potential contract extension, but now he is essentially a free agent and can ponder about new horizons. The Maple Leafs essentially moved on from Dubas since his press conference and he has been granted permission to meet with the Pittsburgh Penguins about their vacant GM position.

  • With Dubas gone from Toronto, the Maple Leafs are in need of a new voice as their GM. Darren Dreger reports the team values experience above all in their search. Dreger says he believes the Maple Leafs have already reached out to former Calgary Flames GM Brad Treliving and he does not expect the team to cast as wide a net as the Flames did in their recent GM hunt meaning this could be done rather quickly.
  • Johnston added that while there have been plenty of rumours around Toronto about major changes, that won’t necessarily be the case. Johnston reports that Brendan Shanahan, president of the Maple Leafs, reached out to the Leafs top four forwards (Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares) when he made the decision to move on from Dubas and Shanahan gave those players the impression none of them would be leaving Toronto this offseason. Matthews and Nylander are both entering the final year of their contracts and could be unrestricted free agents a year from now.
  • Pierre LeBrun adds the Maple Leafs could be losing more off-ice personnel, even if the core players remain. He reports that assistant coach Spencer Carbery is a hot commodity on the coaching market right now. Carbery has already met with the Washington Capitals who are looking for a new head coach, and has drawn interest from the Anaheim Ducks and New York Rangers as well.

Maple Leafs Notes: Marner, Matthews, Carbery

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Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic wrote today that he believes that if Kyle Dubas is retained as Toronto Maple Leafs general manager he will shop star forward Mitch Marner. LeBrun cites Dubas proactively bringing up the Matthew Tkachuk trade in his press conference as a sign that the young Maple Leafs GM is ready to make radical changes to shake up Toronto’s core and he sees Florida’s bold move as a template from which to work from.

LeBrun also goes on to add that he believes Marner is the easiest trade to make from a contractual standpoint. Marner has two years left on his current contract and will not have any no trade protection, while William Nylander and Auston Matthews will receive no trade clauses on July 1st and John Tavares already has a full no move clause. The Maple Leafs could shop Marner to all 31 other teams and drive up a bidding war for the 26-year-old. LeBrun ends his article by stating that should the Leafs trade Marner that they would need a top pairing defenseman in return at a minimum.

In other Maple Leafs notes:

  • Pierre LeBrun is of the opinion that any Auston Matthews trade is likely not going to happen as he believes the Maple Leafs will instead focus on extending Matthews when he becomes eligible to sign his next contract on July 1st. LeBrun adds that replacing Matthews would be nearly impossible for Toronto to do and given Matthews track record one would have to agree with him. The five-time 40+ goal scorer struggled at times this season, but still managed to put up 85 points in 74 games. One thing that could be a sticking point is the cap hit that Matthews will be looking for on his next long-term deal.
  • Pierre LeBrun also discussed Toronto assistant coach Spencer Carbery saying that he believes Carbery’s old team the Washington Capitals have already asked the Toronto Maple Leafs for permission to interview him about their vacant head coaching position. Neither Washington nor Toronto would confirm LeBrun’s hunch that the Capitals are looking to have a reunion with the one-time head coach of their AHL affiliate. Washington have also looked at Tampa Bay Lightning assistant coach Jeff Halpern as a candidate.

Maple Leafs Notes: Dubas, Matthews, Bunting, O’Reilly, Samsonov, Peksa

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2:50 PM: Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas took his turn at the podium today, and issued some useful clarity on both his own future and his plans for the Maple Leafs moving forward, should he be retained as GM. On his own future, Dubas said it would be a “family decision” on whether he will remain as head coach, and that he would either remain an executive in Toronto, or step away and take some time to “recalibrate on the season” he just had. Perhaps most importantly for other teams potentially interested in hiring Dubas to fill their vacant GM roles, Dubas stated: “you won’t see me next week popping up elsewhere,” meaning he is highly unlikely to be a possibility for any of this cycle’s GM vacancies.

His other revealing comments today were regarding the Maple Leafs’ general strategy, and how he would approach improving his team. Dubas said he would be “interested in doing anything” with his roster this summer, and that he “would take nothing off the table at all,” which obviously includes superstars such as Matthews. Dubas cited the Panthers (and presumably their bold, core-shaking trade for Matthew Tkachuk last summer) as an example of a team that re-structured a disappointing core in a successful manner, so based on these comments, it seems there could be a greater appetite for seismic change in Toronto than some might have anticipated.

For what its worth, Toronto’s core players almost exclusively expressed sincere hopes that they could remain Maple Leafs and not see their core group of players broken up. But based on Dubas’ recent comments, it looks as though their general manager will examine every possible opportunity to improve his team, even if it requires saying parting with some talented familiar faces.

12:30 PM: Since the Toronto Maple Leafs were eliminated from the second round of the playoffs by the Florida Panthers, much of the focus of the hockey world has been on three of the team’s key figures: general manager Kyle Dubas, head coach Sheldon Keefe, and superstar face of the franchise Auston Matthews. While the futures of both Dubas and Keefe are technically more immediately pressing, it’s the fate of Matthews that is likely to have the most significant on-ice consequences. The 25-year-old 2021-22 Hart Trophy winner is set to see his current $11.6MM AAV contract expire after next season, and will gain a full no-movement clause this summer, giving Toronto no opportunity to consider trades for him should he decide he wants to test the open market.

Toronto must be thankful, then, that testing the waters of unrestricted free agency does not seem to be Matthews’ top priority. As relayed by Northstar Bets’ Chris Johnston, Matthews told the media that his “intention” is to remain a Maple Leaf, and that he would like an extension to be finalized before next season. It’s worth noting that Matthews’ comments on his future today will feel extremely similar to what John Tavares communicated to the media as he approached the expiry of his contract with the New York Islanders, and Tavares ultimately did leave as a free agent. So that is to say that even with these comments, there remains a ways to go before Matthews’ pen hits the paper on a lucrative new long-term deal, and the possibility that he departs still exists. But in terms of each outcome’s likelihood,  Matthews’ comments today have to give confidence to the Toronto market that their team’s best player is in it for the long haul.

Other notes regarding the Maple Leafs:

  • One player who seems unlikely to be signing a contract extension to remain in Toronto is 27-year-old winger Michael Bunting. Today Bunting told the media, including Sports Illustrated’s David Alter, that he didn’t have any contract talks about an extension with the Maple Leafs during the season. While it’s possible Bunting, who scored 23 goals and 49 points this season before disappointing in the playoffs, could ultimately find a way to return to Toronto, it does not seem as though that outcome is likely. Bunting has a chance to headline a class of free agent left wingers relatively thin in top-level talent, meaning it’s a strong possibility that he’s able to earn a better offer from another club than Toronto is in a position to make.
  • Speaking with the media today, Maple Leafs center Ryan O’Reilly also answered questions on his future. Johnston reports that O’Reilly sounded “more inclined to test the open market on July 1 than try and work out an extension” with Toronto, which once again feels like the likeliest outcome given the cap constraints Toronto’s big contracts have forced them to work with. After a disappointing 40-game run this season with the St. Louis Blues, O’Reilly was dealt to Toronto and the trade seemed to revive his game. He scored 11 points in 13 regular-season games and nine in 11 playoff games, including a few important contributions in high-leverage moments. But having significantly helped his stock with his playoff performance, O’Reilly may also have placed himself out of Toronto’s price range for a contract extension.
  • The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun relays word from Maple Leafs netminder Ilya Samsonov regarding the injury that knocked him out of the team’s second-round playoff series against Florida. Samsonov said an unfortunate collision with teammate Luke Schenn caused him to suffer a neck injury, and it’s that injury that forced rookie Joseph Woll between the pipes. Samsonov ultimately finished his nine-game run in the playoffs with sub-par numbers (.898 save percentage and 3.13 goals-against-average in nine games played) though he did manage to backstop Toronto to their long-awaited playoff series victory. Samsonov added in his media availability that he hopes to be able to re-sign with Toronto, who will have the opportunity to retain his rights as an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent with a $1.8MM qualifying offer.
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs signed 2021 sixth-round pick Vyacheslav Peksa to a three-year, $851k AAV entry-level deal. Peksa, a 20-year-old Russian netminder, has been developing in KHL club Ak Bars Kazan’s system for a few seasons now. Last year was his final campaign at Russia’s junior level and he posted a .936 save percentage in 56 games played. This year, he moved to Russia’s second-tier men’s pro league and posted an impressive .921 save percentage in 40 games, vastly outplaying Vladimir Mosin and Ilya Golubev, the two other goalies on his team who also happen to be older than Peksa. This move allows Peksa to continue his development in North America, where he could either end up with the AHL’s Toronto Marlies or ECHL’s Newfoundland Growlers.

Maple Leafs Notes: Matthews, Woll, Hildeby

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Heading into an offseason that promises plenty of big changes, Chris Johnston of NorthStarBets.ca reports the Toronto Maple Leafs top priority is obvious. Johnston writes that signing Auston Matthews to a long-term high-priced contract has to be the team’s number one priority and filling in the pieces around him can come next.

Matthews is now heading into the final year of his current contract after the Leafs were knocked out of the playoffs by the Florida Panthers in five games. Matthews has earned just over $11.6MM per season since his entry-level contract expired in 2019 and is due a raise on that enormous contract. Matthews has a strong case to surpass Nathan MacKinnon’s $12.6MM annual cap hit as the highest paid player in the league, but Johnston believes the Maple Leafs need to do whatever it takes to get the 25 year old’s name on a new contract and they are eligible to do that as soon as July 1.

The Maple Leafs have some other huge questions to answer this offseason. William Nylander is also eligible to sign a contract extension as he could be an unrestricted free agent in 2024, like Matthews. Mitch Marner and John Tavares has just two years left on their contracts, but no decision needs to be made on them quite yet. Off the ice, general manager Kyle Dubas is also a free agent as his contract expires on June 30. Head coach Sheldon Keefe has one year left on his contract and the team needs to decide if they extend him, replace him or let him ride out the final year of his deal.

  • Also in Leaf Land, Lance Hornby of the Toronto Sun reports Joseph Woll will return to the Toronto Marlies next week. Woll was the team’s number three netminder most of the season behind Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov, but with both of those goalies injured in the playoffs, Woll started the final two games of the Maple Leafs season. Murray was great for the Toronto Marlies in the AHL this season, posting a 2.37 GAA and a .927 SV% in 21 games. The Marlies are facing elimination after losing the first two games of their Best-of-5 Division Final series and will play Game 3 on Wednesday.
  • Speaking of Toronto Marlies goaltenders, Dennis Hildeby was returned to the AHL earlier today per the AHL transactions page. He was called up after Samsonov’s injury and served as the Maple Leafs third string, in case of emergency goalie in the final few games of the postseason. The 21 year old played most of this season in Sweden’s SHL with Farjestad and was the Maple Leafs fourth round pick in 2022.

2023 Ted Lindsay Award Finalists Announced

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The NHL has announced the 2023 Ted Lindsay Award nominees. The award is given to the most outstanding player in the NHL and is voted on by the players. The Ted Lindsay Award is very similar to the Hart Trophy, with the unique feature of the award being that is that it is voted on by members of the NHLPA. Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs won the award last year and was the fourth different winner in as many years.

This year the finalists for the award are San Jose Sharks defenseman Erik Karlsson, Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid, and right winger David Pastrňák of the Boston Bruins.

McDavid continues to be widely regarded as the best player in the world and it is hard to argue with the numbers. The 26-year-old put up video game like numbers this year with 64 goals and 89 assists in 82 regular season games on his way to a third consecutive Art Ross Trophy as the NHL’s leading scorer. McDavid outpaced the entire league by 25 points this season, with the second leading scorer being teammate Leon Draisaitl. He outscored fellow Ted Lindsay nominee Pastrňák by 40 points.

Pastrňák has a career year putting up 61 goals and 52 assists in 82 games as he led the Boston Bruins to a historical President’s Trophy winning regular season. The soon to be 27-year-old put up an incredible 43 even strength goals and 76 even strength points. Pastrňák nearly lapped his own team in scoring as he outscored the second leading Bruins scorer Brad Marchand by 46 points. Maybe the most impressive feat of all for Pastrňák was that he put up this incredible season in a contract year. Somehow the winger was able to keep out the noise and put-up terrific numbers before signing an eight year $90MM contract extension on March 2nd .

Speaking of historical seasons, defenseman Erik Karlsson eclipsed the 100 points mark this season finishing the year with 25 goals and 76 assists in 82 games. The smooth skating Swede was the first defenseman to top 100 points in 31 years. Even more impressive than that was the fact that Karlsson did it playing on a bad Sharks team while also dealing with his name being in trade talks all season. Karlsson topped his career high point total by 19, and quieted a lot of his harshest critics in what was an incredible offensive display.

It’ll be interesting to see who comes away with the Ted Lindsay award come June when the ceremony will be held in Nashville. McDavid is likely the favorite to pick up the award, however I wouldn’t discount a 100-point defenseman in this era as Karlsson is just the sixth defenseman ever to accomplish the feat.

Morning Notes: NHLPA Poll, Quick, Canadiens

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The NHLPA Player Poll has become a yearly fixture, giving fans an insight into what players have to say in popular public debates. This year’s edition dropped this morning with mostly expected results.

Tampa Bay Lightning netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy was voted by a wide margin as the goalie players would want in net with one game on the line for the second straight season, while the Colorado Avalanche’s Cale Makar was voted best defenseman in the league by a landslide. Connor McDavid won “most impactful forward in a must-win game,” no doubt buoyed by last year’s electric playoff performance. Other winners were Patrick Kane for best stick-handler, Leon Draisaitl for best passer, Sidney Crosby for most complete player, Brad Marchand for least enjoy playing against (but want on your team), Joe Pavelski for most effective net-front player, and Aleksander Barkov for most underrated. Marie-Philip Poulin was also voted as the women’s hockey player that NHL players would most like to play alongside, past or present, and the Bell Centre was voted as having the best ice in the NHL for the fifth time.

In off-ice results, Las Vegas was voted the best road city to have an off day, Marc-Andre Fleury was voted best locker room presence, and Auston Matthews was voted as having the best shoe game.

More notes from around the NHL this morning:

  • Now a Vegas Golden Knight, Stanley Cup-winning netminder Jonathan Quick continues to move up the all-time ranks. With last night’s road win against the Vancouver Canucks, Quick moved into sole possession of second place on the all-time wins list for American-born goaltenders, trailing only Ryan Miller. Quick now sits just 16 wins back of tying the all-time record with 375 wins under his belt.
  • In some rare positive injury news for the Montreal Canadiens this season, Jake Evans has returned to practice in a full-contact jersey, while Jesse Ylonen has returned to practice after missing the team’s last game with an illness, per TVA’s Renaud Lavoie. Ylonen hasn’t looked out of place in his first extended NHL look this season, recording five goals and 12 points in 29 games. Evans is nearing a return after missing over two months with a lower-body injury.

Snapshots: Salary Cap, Coyotes, Matthews

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The relatively flat salary cap over the last few seasons has certainly been a limiter on player movement over that time.  However, speaking with reporters today including Sportsnet’s Eric Engels, NHL commissioner Gary Bettman indicated a potential openness to boost the Upper Limit by more than the prescribed $1MM next season.  However, doing so would be tied to escrow:

We’re hearing around the bend from players and others that there may be interest in having that, but one thing to keep in mind if we’re going to raise the cap and the escrow hasn’t been paid off, is then we’re going to have to look at raising the escrow rates, which under the CBA extension in 2020 is locked into the last three years of the CBA term at 6 per cent. So, if you’re going to raise the cap prematurely, then you’re going to have to look at the escrow percentage as well. The two are inextricably tied together.

As Bettman noted, there now is a fixed cap on escrow which there wasn’t in the past and by his estimation, there is still around $100MM owed back to the owners to get back to the required 50/50 share of Hockey Related Revenue.  Increasing the escrow hasn’t been popular in the past so if incoming NHLPA Director Marty Walsh finds that the players don’t want to go that route again (even for just a short time), it could be one more year with a small increase before the cap goes up more quickly beginning in 2024-25.

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • The Coyotes are likely to be one of the few teams with significant cap space this summer but don’t expect them to automatically be too active in free agency. GM Bill Armstrong indicated on the latest Cam and Strick podcast (video link) that they’re also open to doing what they’ve done in recent years which is taking on unwanted contracts while stockpiling extra draft picks for doing so.  Arizona has stockpiled 47 picks over the next four seasons but have shown a willingness in the past to take on selections that are several years out.  If they opt to take on more unwanted contracts, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them concentrating on adding 2026 and 2027 draft picks in order to try to keep their pick cupboard spaced out.
  • While it has been speculated for a while, Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews confirmed to Jonas Siegel of The Athletic (subscription link) that the upper-body injury he has been dealing with for most of the year is a hand issue. However, the 25-year-old indicated that the hand is feeling a lot better now as of late which is certainly good news for a Toronto team that has made several moves to augment their roster at the trade deadline in the hopes of a long playoff run.  Even with the injury, Matthews still has 31 goals and 36 assists in 59 games so far.

Ryan O’Reilly Out Four Weeks After Surgery

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TSN is reporting that newly acquired Toronto Maple Leafs forward Ryan O’Reilly underwent successful surgery today to help stabilize his broken finger. Head coach Sheldon Keefe has said the timeline for recovery is four weeks.

O’Reilly was placed on long-term injured reserve on Monday, meaning the earliest he can return to the Maple Leafs lineup is the 29th of March.

O’Reilly was injured on Saturday night when he was hit on the hand by an Auston Matthews shot. Toronto is 5-3 since they acquired the former Conn Smythe winner and were hoping to acclimate him to the lineup in the months leading up to the playoffs.

For his part, O’Reilly has five points since coming over from the St. Louis Blues and has been everything Toronto was hoping for when they acquired the 32-year-old.

 

Alex Steeves Reassigned To AHL; Auston Matthews Expected To Return

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The Toronto Maple Leafs continue their roster tweaks, this time sending Alex Steeves back down to the minor leagues. The move comes with Wayne Simmonds on waivers and Auston Matthews appearing to be ready to return after taking in a full practice yesterday.

Steeves, 23, will be down in time to rejoin the Toronto Marlies for their morning match against the Utica Comets today, but likely means he won’t be playing for the Maple Leafs this evening. The young undrafted forward has been outstanding at the AHL level, scoring 39 points in 44 games this season and generally being one of the team’s most reliable players.

Through two games this season and three last year, Steeves has just one point at the NHL level and hasn’t recorded a goal just yet. After becoming a star at Notre Dame, he signed an entry-level deal with the Maple Leafs that keeps him under contract through the 2023-24 season.

If this indicates Matthews’ return, it will be nearly bang on the three-week timeline he was originally given. The star forward last played on January 25 against the New York Rangers, before being shut down due to a knee sprain.

Without him, Toronto has gone 2-3, including an embarrassing loss to the last-place Columbus Blue Jackets on Saturday, in which they were outshot 40-29. Getting him back ahead of the deadline is no small thing, as the Maple Leafs can assess the strength of their group at full health.

Injury Notes: Matthews, Thompson, Jets

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It’s been over two weeks since Auston Matthews last suited up for the Toronto Maple Leafs, missing the last three games before the All-Star break with a knee sprain. Matthews told reporters today that he doesn’t know when he’ll be back in the lineup but will “take it day to day” as he rejoins his team for practice.

He may not be on his earth-shattering 60-plus goal pace from last season, but he’s still an elite number-one center on one of the best teams in the NHL. With 25 goals, 28 assists, and 53 points in 47 games, Matthews is on pace to have more assists than goals for the first time in his career, which he mentioned as a personal goal some seasons back. Matthews revealed the injury was sustained in warmups before a January 25 game against the New York Rangers, which he played. He said the injury “got worse throughout the game,” calling it “kind of fluky.”

  • There’s good news for Buffalo Sabres fans, who will need everything to go right for the rest of the season to maintain their position in a tight Eastern Conference playoff race. Head coach Don Granato said center Tage Thompson was “pretty much back to normal” today at practice, signaling a potential end to a brief injury absence that caused him to miss the 2023 All-Star Game last weekend. He could be ready to go on Saturday when Buffalo returns to play against the Calgary Flames. Thompson is just four goals shy of tying last season’s goal total of 38, which he set in 78 games.
  • Winnipeg Jets head coach Rick Bowness issued a variety of injury updates to reporters today, but most notably said that forward Mason Appleton is on track to play Saturday. The 27-year-old played 14 games this season before sustaining a wrist injury that has cost him much of the 2022-23 campaign. Appleton was off to a strong start with six points and elevated ice time before going down with the injury. Bowness also mentioned that forward David Gustafsson and defenseman Dylan DeMelo, who are both day-to-day, aren’t ready to rejoin full practice.

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