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Artemi Panarin

Blackhawks Notes: The Athletic’s Scott Powers Talks to PHR

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The Athletic’s Scott Powers was kind enough to sit down with Pro Hockey Rumors and answer some questions about the Chicago Blackhawks as the season approaches the 25% mark. Answered were a varying array  of questions, from the Blackhawks jump to the top of the West to the likelihood of Artemi Panarin re-signing with the Hawks. Make sure to follow Scott on Twitter (@ByScottPowers) and also read his work at the Athletic.

PHR: Everyone expected a good season from the Hawks, but the main questions rotated around the kids being infused into the lineup. How do you think those kids have done? 

Powers: The kids have had varied results, but the Blackhawks have to be pleased about their early play. The start of the season could have been a disaster if those younger players didn’t carry some weight. It says something that the Blackhawks have yet to recall anyone from the AHL.  As expected, too, those younger players are beginning to improve. Ryan Hartman has played well. Tyler Motte showed some early signs before his injury. Vinnie Hinostroza broke out with a three-point game last week. Nick Schmaltz is getting a chance on the top line. Gustav Forsling is still working some things out, but he’s also a 20-year-old defenseman.

PHR: At the 25% mark of the season, Chicago looks like the team to beat. Teams who were supposed to challenge have either underachieved (Nashville), or been ravaged by injury (Dallas, and Los Angeles). Who do the Hawks need to watch, and how can the Hawks upgrade before or at the trade deadline—-if they choose to?

Powers: I feel like it’s still too early to really gauge the contenders and pretenders. Even with the Blackhawks, they have certainly played well, but plenty of people are still skeptical about them. They have some inflated stats that may even out over time. I think you can say who likely isn’t going to contend after 20 games when you look at the bottom of the divisions.
Overall, though, I’d wait until 40-plus games to start talking about who is going to challenge whom. As for upgrading, I really don’t expect the Blackhawks to be active at the trade market. Their salary cap situation is as tight as it’s ever been. They don’t have the financial space to make a trade unless they move someone with a significant cap hit. The Blackhawks’ hope has to be their younger players continue to develop and make the team better throughout the season.

Nov 18, 2016; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Chicago Blackhawks goalie <a rel=

PHR: If Corey Crawford keeps up this pace, it’s highway robbery if he doesn’t win the Vezina, right? And outside of Crawford, who has been indispensable for this team?

Powers: You never know with the Vezina. The NHL general managers vote on it, and they almost always go with the goalie who has the most victories. It’s obviously not the best way to measure a goalie’s play, but I don’t see it changing. But, yes, Crawford’s been outstanding. The last two years he’s really been an elite goaltender. He’s shown that during some of the Blackhawks’ playoff runs, but his overall numbers had suggested he was a slightly above average goalie. He’s elevated his standing now. Aside from Crawford, it’s been the usually suspects. Patrick Kane, Panarin, Artem Anisimov and Marian Hossa are playing well among the forwards. With the defensemen, it’s depended on who has been paired together, but Michal Kempny and Brent Seabrook’s play has been pretty consistent.

PHR: Artemi Panarin is having another great season. Could a bridge deal get done to keep him in the fold, does he take a hometown discount, or do you see him holding true to the reports of $6MM per season? 

Powers: I wrote about the Panarin contract at length today. He’s not looking for a bridge deal. He’s also probably worth more than $6MM. There are a lot of different factors and I explained in today’s story, but it’ll be interesting to see how it play out. He may take a bit of a discount to stay in Chicago, but it won’t be significant. I don’t think he owes that to the Blackhawks either. He’s not real young at 25 and wants to get paid.

Photo Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. 

Blackhawks Notes: Toews, Kane, Expansion Draft, Crawford

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The Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Lazerus answers fan questions and begins by looking at the Jonathan Toews–Patrick Kane pairing. After a shaky start, the Blackhawks have been on fire since, rocketing to the top of the Western Conference thanks to Vezina-like goaltending from Corey Crawford and timely goal scoring.  Something fans wanted for a long time, a line featuring Toews and Kane together, was successful in boosting the Hawks to an 8-2-1 record since its construction. The downside? It hasn’t been as dominant as some fans want it to be. Lazerus points out that Toews has four goals and six assists in 11 games with Kane while the latter has four goals and seven assists. While it hasn’t been a “dumpster fire,” as Lazerus put it, it hasn’t been as successful as fans would have thought–or wished.

With that said, Lazerus believes it to be foolish separating the lines, especially since Marian Hossa has experienced a resurgence and is playing exceptionally well with Artem Anisimov and Artemi Panarin.

  • Lazerus also answers questions about the expansion draft and who the Hawks are likely to protect come this summer. Aside from Toews, Kane, Hossa, and Anisimov, Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, and Niklas Hjalmarsson who all have non-movement clauses, the younger players are also exempt. Lazerus predicts that Trevor van Riemsdyk, Marcus Kruger, or even Richard Panik (should his contract be extended) will be taken by Las Vegas.
  • Meanwhile, Scott Powers looks at a number of statistical measures for the Blackhawks that ranges from Corsi to the impressive dominance of the Blackhawks over the season.  From Powers:
  • 50.29: The Blackhawks are 12th in the NHL with a 50.29 Corsi percentage in 5-on-5 play. They’re 24th with an average of 52.82 Corsi for per 60 minutes and seventh at 52.22 Corsi against per 60. They’re 26th with 27.5 shots on goal for per 60 minutes and 21st at 30.58 shots on goal against per 60.
  • 96.00: Corey Crawford is fourth in the NHL with 96.00 save percentage in 5-on-5 play this season. He’s allowed 13 goals on 325 shots. Only two other goalies have faced more 5-on-5 shots than Crawford this season. He’s also fifth with 90.14 high-danger save percentage and leads the league with 13.55 goals saved above average.

The piece about Crawford is valuable because his play has paced Chicago through their torrid run since the end of October. Often believed to be the beneficiary of a great defense, Crawford has been a rock between the pipes and the advanced stats bear that out. Many are taking notice.

Though he was snubbed last season by not even being listed as a Vezina candidate, Crawford should find his name on the ballot this year if his dominant play continues.

Snapshots: Fortin, Flames, Team Europe

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When the Chicago Blackhawks invited Alexandre Fortin to prospect camp this summer, even they didn’t expect to sign him to a three-year entry level contract just a few weeks later. It’s a huge step for the twice-undrafted forward from the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies of the QMJHL.

The 19-year old is the nephew of former NHL goaltender Jean-Sebastien Giguere and never did really blow away scouts during his junior years.  But now, in Hawks rookie camp he turned enough heads to be kept around when the pro camp started, and then enough for the Hawks to invest in him.  As assistant coach Kevin Dineen says in Chris Kuc’s latest Chicago Tribune article:

He’s a smart, cerebral kid who has a nice offensive skill set that he’s been able to show here early. He’s off to a real good start and he’s working his way in to trying to find a way into one of our exhibition games.

The Hawks have found overlooked players before, most notably with last year’s Calder trophy winner Artemi Panarin, who, while on the hockey world’s radar, was never believed to be able to step into a top-line, all-star role right away. With Fortin, perhaps they found another late-bloomer who they can shape into an offensive dynamo.

  • The Flames have decided to send four players back to their individual WHL teams today; the group includes Brayden Burke, Aaron Hyman, Matthew Phillips and Nick Schneider. Only Phillips was actually drafted by the club (166th overall this year).  The team has also cut Dennis Kravchenko from the NHL camp, and invited him to their AHL camp (which he accepted).  Kravchenko has scored 61 points in 68 games the past two seasons while playing for UMass-Amherst in the NCAA. An undersized winger, he’s trying to follow the path of Johnny Gaudreau and prove offense is more important than stature.
  • Team Europe, the overwhelming underdogs of the World Cup, have now advanced to the final series following an overtime win against Team Sweden. Tomas Tatar, the young flashy Red Wings forward scored twice, including the winner, to send home the defensive powerhouse.  The makeshift squad will take on Canada in the best-of-three final series, starting Tuesday night.

Blackhawks Discussing Extension With Artemi Panarin

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The Chicago Blackhawks and Artemi Panarin’s agent Tom Lynn have been in discussions regarding a contract extension, reports the Chicago Tribune’s Chris Kuc.  The 24 year old left winger is entering the second and final year of his entry-level contract signed last offseason with an AAV of $3.5MM including bonuses (which he hit last season).

Panarin is coming off a very strong rookie campaign, posting 30 goals and 47 assists in 80 games, ranking him second on the team in scoring behind Hart Trophy (league MVP) winner Patrick Kane.  He also finished tied for ninth overall in league-wide scoring which helped earn him the Calder Trophy as the NHL’s Rookie of the Year.

Speaking through an interpreter, Panarin commented on talks and the thought of staying with Chicago long-term:

“I came to play on the NHL level not because of money and contracts,” Panarin said via an interpreter. “My agent will deal with the rest. As of right now, I like everything and … I’m very content.”

Scott Powers of The Athletic reports that Panarin is seeking a 6-7 year contract with a cap hit between $6MM – $7MM.  Last week, our Glen Miller took a look at what the market might be, offering up Filip Forsberg and Vladimir Tarasenko as potential comparable players depending on how Panarin’s sophomore season goes.

Chicago GM Stan Bowman will have to get creative with his roster to find a way to fit Panarin in on an extension.  The team currently has 11 players signed for 2017-18 with a cap hit just shy of $58MM according to Cap Friendly.  While the salary cap for next season won’t be set until June, based on recent years the increase won’t be that dramatic which means they will likely have to move someone out to make the money work.

PHR Originals: 9/12/16 – 9/18/16

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Here is a look at the original content and analysis from the Pro Hockey Rumors staff over the past week:

  • Gavin Lee and Glenn Miller both looked at compelling restricted free agents in 2017. Gavin focused on Artemi Panarin among others while Glenn wrote about Bo Horvat and three other future RFA’s.
  • Finally, Mike Furlano outlined the reasoning for new goalie equipment rules after Bill Daly appeared on Sirius XM. Similar to the changes put in place following the strike, Mike details the changes that are coming to goalie pants regulations.

Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Panarin, Faksa, Niederreiter

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Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated their respective negotiation processes.

Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency, unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. We move on to the Central Division.

Artemi Panarin (Chicago) – The 2015-16 Calder Trophy recipient can set himself up for a monster payday with another 30-goal, 70-point campaign in 2016-17. Panarin surprised many by quickly acclimating to North America and putting up huge offensive numbers right away. He kicked off the season with a goal in game one against the Rangers and remained consistent throughout the campaign finishing just one month – February – with fewer than 10 points.

The first name that comes to mind as a potential comparable is Vladimir Tarasenko, who netted 37 goals and totaled 73 points before receiving an eight-year extension from St. Louis with an AAV of $7.5MM. Another possibility would be Filip Forsberg, who averaged 30 goals and nearly 64 points in each of the two full seasons prior to inking his new $6MM-a-year deal.

As they do every summer, seemingly, Chicago will be confronted with a cap crunch and will be looking to try to save as much money as possible on Panarin’s next contract. A trade is always a possibility, as they did with Brandon Saad, but it’s hard to imagine the Hawks dealing away two dynamic young talents just two years apart. Best guess is Chicago pushes for something closer to $6MM per on a long term deal and Panarin’s camp asking for something closer to $7MM.

Radek Faksa (Dallas) – Ordinarily, a five-goal, 12-point rookie debut wouldn’t generate much interest but with another season to go before reaching restricted free agency, and all of the offensive firepower the Stars have accumulated, it’s possible the big and skilled Faksa enjoys a real breakout campaign in 2016-17. Faksa is 22, set to turn 23 in January. He’s at an age where players tend to hit their stride and with well over 100 professional games on his resume, Faksa now has invaluable experience to go along with his skill.

The other factor that will make this a potentially interesting negotiation is the Stars cap situation. The team should have around $25MM in available space but with only 11 players signed for 2017-18, the Stars will have to be judicious with their spending. A big sophomore campaign for Faksa will complicate matters for the Stars and their ability to replace other veteran players likely to depart after the season.

At this point, the best guess is likely a bridge deal for Faksa. Even presuming a productive 2016-17 season, he won’t have much of a track record to bank on. Depending on the quality of Faksa’s 2016-17 campaign, a contract comparable to the one-year deals inked by Zemgus Girgensons or Mikhail Grigorenko – for $1.15MM and $1.3MM respectively – could be a fair compromise. Girgensons had a solid 2014-15 season, scoring 15 goals and 30 points before struggling to an 18-point year in 2015-16. Grigorenko posted a scoring line of 6-21=27 for Colorado this past season as a 22-year-old.

If Faksa enjoys a better platform year, then perhaps the two-year, $5.5MM pact J.T. Miller and the Rangers settled on this summer is something the Czech center can shoot for. Miller bested his previous career highs in goals by 12 and points by 20 during the 2015-16 campaign and earned roughly a 300% bump in pay as a result. Faksa has the talent and may get the opportunity in Dallas to post that same type of breakout performance for the Stars.

Nino Niederreiter (Minnesota) – Niederreiter has quietly put together consecutive 20-goal campaigns and established a career best with 43 points in 2015-16 for the Minnesota Wild. He is entering the final season of a two-year, bridge contract that comes with an AAV of $2.67MM.

Niederreiter’s previous two seasons compare favorably to those of New York Rangers winger Chris Kreider. Kreider has tallied back-to-back 21-goal campaigns and combined for 89 points over that span. The big Swiss winger, on the other hand, has totaled 44 goals and 80 points over the last two years. Kreider finished his two-year bridge deal – AAV of $2.475 – and signed a four-year contract worth $18.5MM. That might represent a solid blue print for Niederreiter’s next pact.

Potential 2016-17 Impact Rookies: Schmaltz, Motte, Rantanen, Tuch

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Young talent on ELC’s are often the life blood of successful organizations. With the cost for elite players approaching free agency rising to $8MM or more annually – think Sidney Crosby, Anze Kopitar, Jonathan Toews, etc. – teams need to constantly have young NHL-ready talent ready to plug in to replace veterans who are allowed to walk because they simply cost too much to fit under the salary cap.

On that note, we continue our series on rookies who both have a great chance to make their team at some point this year and the talent to make a significant impact. Today we move into the Western Conference’s Central Division.

Nick Schmaltz (Chicago) – Every year the Blackhawks find themselves precariously close to the salary cap ceiling and with significant holes on their roster. With roughly $49MM tied up in just eight players – four forwards, three defensemen and a goalie – Chicago has committed much of its salary cap space to their star players and have left precious little room with which to flesh out the rest of its roster. Every summer it seems the team is forced to move quality players due to cap reasons. Last year the team dealt Brandon Saad, who as a pending RFA was set to become quite expensive. This summer Chicago packaged talented young forward Teuvo Teravainen with Bryan Bickell to entice Carolina to take on the final season of the latter’s bloated contract. The downside of Chicago’s cap crunch is obvious; the upside though is that it gives young players like Schmaltz a great opportunity to make the Blackhawks and contribute right away.

Schmaltz was the Hawks first-round pick in the 2014 draft, 20th overall. He’s played the last two seasons at the University of North Dakota and was better than a point-per-game player in 2015-16. The loss of Teravainen along with the free agent departure of Andrew Ladd leaves two large vacancies on the Blackhawks roster and Schmaltz will be given every opportunity to fill one. With plenty of scoring talent around him, Schmaltz could produce solid offensive numbers right out of the gate.

Tyler Motte  (Chicago) – If Schmaltz is likely to earn one open forward spot for the Hawks, Motte may well have the inside track on the second one. Like Schmaltz, Motte has gone the NCAA route, skating three seasons with the University of Michigan before turning pro. Motte, a 2013 fourth-rounder, had a terrific junior campaign in 2015-16, recording 32 goals and 56 points in 38 games for the Wolverines.

After turning pro, Motte saw action in a total of eight AHL contests with the Rockford IceHogs – five in the regular season and three more in the playoffs – scoring four goals and seven points. Motte, a C/LW by trade, has an excellent opportunity to earn a top-six role and could see plenty of ice time on a line with Toews or Patrick Kane. Currently, the Hawks list Artemi Panarin, last year’s Calder Trophy winner as the league’s top rookie, as a top-six LW. Joining him on the left side is Richard Panik – 25 goals in 181 career NHL games – and Andrew Desjardins – career high of eight goals in 2015-16. The shallow relatively depth on the port side should allow Motte a quality chance to make the team in a scoring line role.

Mikko Rantanen (Colorado) – The Avalanche used the 10th overall selection on the Finnish winger in the 2015 draft. Rantanen, just 19, offers a rare combination of NHL power forward size at 6-foot-3 and 212 pounds, along with top-shelf offensive skill. He made his MHL debut in 2015-16, going scoreless in nine games and recording a -7 plus-minus rating.

While plus-minus is generally considered a misleading stat, Rantanen’s -7 in just nine games does suggest the youngster could use more work in his own zone. That being said, many young players need to improve on the defensive end of the game and Rantanen is no different. Rantanen did have an excellent debut in the AHL, suiting up for 52 games with the San Antonio Rampage and contributing 60 points. It’s likely Rantanen sees significant action with the Avalanche this year as the talent is simply too hard to ignore.

Alex Tuch  (Minnesota) – The Wild wouldn’t appear to have too many openings up front based on their team depth chart but if a talented player such as Tuch impresses at camp, he could force his way onto the roster sooner rather than later. Additionally, while Jordan Schroeder is currently listed as the team’s 4th line LW, the team did waive the four-year veteran this summer prior to re-signing him to a one-year, two-way deal. Waiving Schroeder was a curious move, and it’s been speculated it was done to reinforce the team’s position that the arbitration-eligible forward wasn’t worthy of a one-way deal. Given those circumstances, if Tuch proves to be the better player in camp, the Wild could easily find a spot for him.

Tuch has played the past two seasons in the NCAA with Boston College, appearing in 77 games with the Eagles and netting 32 goals along with 30 helpers. At 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds, he would certainly add an imposing figure to the Wild’s forward ranks. Tuch is known as a physical player, not afraid to stand up for his teammates. He’s  also a willing and able fore-checker and a solid skater. PHR has previously mentioned Tuch as a potential breakout rookie who could suit up for the Wild as soon as this season.

(All depth charts provided by Roster Resource) 

 

Blackhawks Notes: Toews, Season Expectations, Depth

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The Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Lazerus answers a number of fan questions and starts with potential linemates for Jonathan Toews. Lazerus opines that Richard Panik will most likely start on the right wing while youngsters Nick Schmaltz, Vinnie Hinostroza, or Tyler Motte could end up on the top line as well. Lazerus reports that the Hawks will most likely put Marian Hossa with Marcus Kruger on the third line. Breaking up the dominant Artemi Panarin–Artem Anisimov–Patrick Kane line would be senseless.

Lazerus’ early season prediction about the Blackhawks 2016-17 season isn’t exactly what Hawks fans are used to. While he doesn’t dog the organization, he is extremely realistic in his assessment.  He answered two questions regarding expectations, and with both, Lazerus preached caution. Though he indicates their championship window is still very wide open, he also points out what many others have: the Central Division has a number of very good teams and the Blackhawks’ forward depth is suspect. Lazerus calls the team “very good, albeit flawed.” Lazerus encourages fans to “temper their expectations,” while also stating that they should not “write off the season just yet.” Lazerus adds that the Blackhawks forward depth is a result of the salary cap, and a situation that many Hawk fans should be used to for seasons to come. Then again, Blackhawk fans have been watching their team mitigate through cap issues since 2010.

In other Hawks notes:

  • The Hockey Writers’ David Tews writes that the Blackhawks’ attempts at replenishing depth have resulted in missed opportunities. Much like Lazerus wrote, Tews believes the Hawks’ roster holes–specifically left wing–could come back to hurt the Hawks as the season progresses. Tews is also high on Motte and Schmaltz, similar to Lazerus, but feels opportunities were missed if Chicago didn’t try to grab Brandon Pirri or Jiri Hudler at discounts.

Blackhawks Notes: Line Projections With, Without Vesey

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The Athletic’s Scott Powers spends a lengthy article channeling his inner Joel Quenneville and shuffling lines in six (6!) different fashions. Last week, Powers floated the story that Quenneville may in fact unite captain Jonathan Toews with Patrick Kane, an absolute lethal combination should the Hawks manage to ink Jimmy Vesey. Below are the combinations that Powers threw out–which includes a few combinations should the Hawks land Vesey.

We’ll start with the Vesey scenario: Powers believes that Toews would be flanked by Vesey on his left and Kane on the right. Should Vesey live up to his billing and Kane continue to churn out points like he has the past two seasons, it’s almost criminal what that line could be capable of.  The second line would consist of Artemi Panarin – Artem Anisimov – Vinnie Hinostroza, giving them a potent one-two punch on the top two lines. An Andrew Desjardins – Marcus Kruger – Marian Hossa third line provides a great two-way forward line that will be overwhelmingly responsible on both ends of the ice. Powers rounds out these lines with a Richard Panik – Nick Schmaltz – Kyle Baun offering, which Powers argues, is due to the Hawks not wanting to have younger players as healthy scratches.

In his first offering, Powers pencils in what seems to be the most logical as he goes by the organizational and Quenneville-like approach. The lines:

Panik – Toews – Hinostroza
Panarin – Anisimov – Kane
Desjardins – Kruger – Hossa
Schmaltz – Tanner Kero – Jordin Tootoo

His rationale? Despite relaying the idea that Kane and Toews could be on the ice together often, Powers goes further by saying that any line arrangement with Chicago’s roster is challenging because there are only four definitive top-6 forwards: Toews, Panarin, Anisimov, and Kane. Quenneville, Powers writes, already experimented with moving Hossa to the third line during the 2016 playoffs and will most likely start him there during the regular season. Powers also reports that keeping the Panarin-Anisimov-Kane together is due in part to their production. Hinostroza led AHL affiliate Rockford in points and seems to be one of the few younger players that could earn Quenneville’s trust. Kero and Schmaltz, though on a crapshoot of a line, would bring speed and scoring to a fourth line.

Powers shuffles the chairs on the deck with his other four pairings. But disturbing the wildly dominant Panarin-Anisimov-Kane line seems premature. Even if they land Vesey, leaving this line alone would pay dividends should they be as successful as they were last season. Further, Vesey would be just as productive with the captain on his line.

Everything is contingent on what happens August 15th. But here’s guessing 29 other GM’s are hoping if Vesey doesn’t sign with them, he at least doesn’t go to the Hawks. It would make an already great team even better.

Salary Cap Report: Central Division

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As the hockey world takes its collective breath before the World Cup, training camps, and the regular season, most teams have checked off their boxes and marked their ledgers. Some teams are not finished building their rosters, with RFAs still to sign and trades to explore. Some teams have plenty of space to maneuver with; other teams will need to get creative to stay under the cap.

We’ll complete our Salary Cap Reports by taking a look at the Central Division. Of note:

  • The Central Division has the two highest paid players in the NHL in Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. The Blackhawks captain and leading scorer signed matching eight-year, $84MM extensions in the summer of 2014.
  • After June’s blockbuster trade, the NHL’s highest paid defenseman is now in the Central: P.K. Subban and his $9MM cap hit are now members of the Nashville Predators. The Predators also have the highest paid goalie in the division, with Pekka Rinne making $7MM per season.
  • With Dallas captain Jamie Benn signed to a long-term extension already, there aren’t any superstar pending-UFAs in the Central, but veteran scoring wingers Patrick Sharp and Alex Steen are both up at the end of this season. Calder Trophy winner Artemi Panarin and Ryan Johansen headline next summer’s RFAs.

By the numbers:

Also in the Salary Cap Report series: Atlantic Division, Metropolitan Division, and Pacific Division.

Pro Hockey Rumors is not affiliated with National Hockey League, NHL or NHL.com

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