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Antti Niemi

Potential Buyout Options

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NHL fans are looking ahead to an offseason which will likely see a lot of movement, but will also feature teams tight up against a stagnant cap ceiling. Buyouts are always an option teams will weigh, although certainly an avenue of last resort. Dumping a contract isn’t as simple as taking the player’s salary off the books. They will count as 1/3 or 2/3 of the original cap hit, for twice the remaining years on that contract. So if a 26 year old player has two years remaining at $3 MM, he will cost $1 MM for four years against the team’s cap total. That means a substantial savings of $2 MM, but is a habit GMs will not want to fall into. For players over 26, the 2/3 rule applies, and that same player would count for $2 MM each of the next four seasons. In such a scenario, the savings are rarely worth it. However, teams can be backed into this corner when trade options completely vanish.

For the 2017 offseason, there is an extra component at play – the expansion draft. Players with full No-Movement Clauses must be protected by their team, exposing potentially better, younger, cheaper options to selection by the Vegas Golden Knights. Prior to the expansion draft, on June 15-17th, there will be a buyout window. Consequently, there will most likely be at least one case where a player who otherwise would not have been bought out will be due to a team’s long-term prospects. This certainly isn’t what the NHLPA had hoped for when they agreed to another 20+ players in the league with the expansion of Vegas, but is an unfortunate unforeseen consequence. Here are just some of the players who could be facing the buyout option this summer:

 

Antti Niemi – Dallas Stars

Both Niemi and fellow goalie Kari Lehtonen should be expecting this fate. With Ben Bishop signing a massive six-year contract with Dallas, their time as starters in this league look all but complete. Both are paid an asburd amount of money, but Niemi’s $4.5 MM is the more unpalatable total. His .892 save percentage through 37 games this year was only edged in ineptitude by Michal Neuvirth among tenders who got more than 15 starts. At his pricetag he is virtually unmoveable, and with only one year remaining on his contract, the hit would be worth it for 2 seasons to keep him away from the team.

Kevin Bieksa – Anaheim Ducks

Bieksa might seem an odd inclusion on this list, considering his age, but it should be remembered that he has a No-Movement Clause, meaning he would need to be protected by the Ducks. Needing to also protect Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler, and Hampus Lindholm, even under the 8 player protection model, this would likely expose Josh Manson. Considering his play in this post-season, and Bieksa’s complete inability to remain healthy, this is a darkhorse candidate for a last-minute buyout. Bieksa’s Corsi is the worst on the backend for his team and his skating has looked quite problematic of late. The flare of his Vancouver days seems long past and with only one year remaining at $4 MM, he seems an easy target to eliminate.

Scott Hartnell – Columbus Blue Jackets

Hartnell is considered a gutsy character player, a net-front presence, and a veteran leader. However, he has seen his production shift from being that of a decent offensive threat (28 G, 32 A in 2014-15) to an average third liner (13 goals, 24 A in 2016-17). His problems run deeper, though, as his brand of physical hockey has taken its toll on his play. No longer quite the intimidating wrecking-ball of his Philadelphia days, Hartnell is not as effective on the forecheck as he once was. The reason he is included on this list, however, is because Columbus has a lot of young, promising players they will wish to protect in the expansion draft, and Hartnell has a No-Movement Clause. At 34 years old and in a quickly diminishing role, it will be difficult for GM Jarmo Kekalainen to save a space for Hartnell. With toughness adequately filled by hard-nosed forwards in Brandon Dubinsky, Boone Jenner, Nick Foligno, and Brandon Saad, he seems even more superfluous. Assuming Dubinsky (NMC), Brandon Saad, Jenner, Foligno (NMC), Cam Atkinson, and Matt Calvert are protected, Hartnell’s inclusion would sacrifice the 24 year-old William Karlsson. That’s a difficult concession for the Jackets to make, even if the youngster took a step back offensively this season. If they would opt to buy out Hartnell’s contract at $4.75 MM, it would mean $3.16 MM in dead space for 4 more seasons, a hefty pill to swallow.

 
There are certain to be other candidates for buyouts as well, but these are three that could easily find themselves looking for a new contract come June 18th.

Reactions To Bishop Signing

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One of the bigger names has taken his name off the open market as Ben Bishop, who arguably would have been the top option for teams looking for goaltending help, has inked a six-year agreement to remain with the Dallas Stars. Of course the Stars had acquired the veteran netminder earlier this week, sending a fourth-round draft choice to Los Angeles to secure exclusive negotiating rights to Bishop. The club and Bishop concluded negotiations fairly quickly and it’s evident given the terms of the arrangement that both parties believed this was a perfect match. Dallas clearly feels they’ve solved their longstanding issues between the pipes and Bishop has decided he wants to be a Star for what should amount to be the rest of his career. Let’s check in on reactions from around the league on the deal.

  • Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News calls the deal “team friendly” considering the cap hit comes in under $5MM annually. Bishop accounted for almost $6MM per season on the soon-to-expire contract he signed with Tampa Bay two years ago and likely could have exceeded that number had he reached the open market. Instead he chose the security of a long-term deal with a Dallas team he feels is “primed to win now.” Heika goes on to write that Dallas is expected to go with a Bishop-Kari Lehtonen duo in goal, suggesting that the team will likely buy Antti Niemi out if they can’t find a trade partner for his services. That plan doesn’t come without its flaws as the Stars would have more than $12MM tied up in its goaltenders for 2017-18; a figure that accounts for roughly 17% of the salary cap. While goaltending was certainly the team’s Achilles heel last season, the Stars will also likely be on the lookout for a blue line upgrade this summer. Even after extending Bishop and with Niemi still on the books, Dallas will have roughly $15MM to spend and that should be enough to bring in some competent help on the back end.
  • TSN’s Scott Cullen takes a look at the deal through the lens of statistical analysis and concludes that Dallas is taking a risk while betting big on Bishop. Using Corsica Hockey’s “expected goals” metric, Cullen notes that Bishop ranks 23rd of 54 goalies to have played in 80 games over the last four seasons in expected goal differential per 60 minutes and in all game situations. Ironically, incumbent starter Kari Lehtonen ranked slightly higher than Bishop using that metric. Cullen also cites Bishop’s age – he’ll turn 31 in November – as a concern given the overall length of the pact. Additionally, even with an expected Niemi buyout, Cullen argues that the Stars “goaltending fiasco has been expensive.”
  • Lastly, Jared Clinton of The Hockey News writes that the Calgary Flames, one of the teams expected to show strong interest in Bishop had he reached free agency, still have plenty of options as they look to upgrade their goaltending situation this summer. Clinton lists Detroit’s Jimmy Howard, Pittsburgh’s Marc-Andre Fleury and the Islanders Jaroslav Halak as potential trade targets. Additionally, the scribe mentions Steve Mason as a possible free agent fit. Interestingly, Clinton also suggests re-signing Brian Elliott, writing: “Elliott had been so very good over the three seasons prior to coming to Calgary that it’s hard to imagine he’s going to struggle as mightily once he takes the ice in 2017-18.” He also points out that Elliott’s poor 2016-17 would conceivably lower his asking price, making the veteran netminder the least expensive option on the market. That’s no small consideration for a Calgary team that rarely spends to the salary cap ceiling and may want to allocate their resources to upgrade other positions as well.

Ultimately, the Flames best bet may be to re-sign Elliott on the cheap and bring in another veteran on a short-term deal, perhaps Mason, to compete for the #1 job. Mason, who has battled inconsistency and injury during his career, has displayed flashes of being an excellent goalie at times. Given his up-and-down play, the former Calder Trophy winner should be amenable to a one-year, prove-it type of contract. Elliott, meanwhile, has been at his best in a timeshare situation and could again thrive while competing against a veteran such as Mason.

Ben Bishop Signs Six-Year Contract With Dallas Stars

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Newly acquired goaltender Ben Bishop has signed a deal with the Dallas Stars. The contract will be for six years and come in at a total of $29.5MM ($4.92MM AAV). The Stars received Bishop in exchange for a fourth-round pick on May 9th, and were immediately said to have common ground on a future contract. Bishop would have been an unrestricted free agent this summer should he have made it to July 1st.

Like Carolina, who dealt for Scott Darling before quickly signing him to a long-term deal, the Stars were not willing to wait around to address their goaltending issues this summer. Instead, they were proactive going after one of the top free agents and seem to have gotten their man without having to fight off any other teams. "<strong

While this contract may seem like a bargain at the low cap-hit, six years is a lot to give to a goaltender who will turn 31 in November. While he clearly has the talent to be an elite netminder in the NHL, this is a big gamble by the Stars that could backfire quickly. Any contract guaranteed the Stars will make another move—whether it be a buyout or trade—of one of their other goaltenders. Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi already cost the team over $10MM combined, and a new contract for Bishop would make them both expendable.

Bishop is coming off a two-year deal that paid him $5.95MM per season, and though his first season was well worth it this year saw a downturn in his play. As the Lightning leaned further toward Andrei Vasilevskiy as their starter, Bishop recorded only a .911 save percentage and dealt with injury. After a mid-season deal to the Los Angeles Kings, he performed even worse stopping just 90% of the shots faced.

This deal puts him in line with goaltenders like Jimmy Howard, Jaroslav Halak and amazingly, Niemi in terms of cap-hit. While it also comes close to Frederik Andersen’s deal from last summer with the Maple Leafs, Andersen was much younger when he inked his five-year pact. Bishop will play most of the final season on this contract at 36, an age few goaltenders make it to as starters.

The contract is broken down as follows:

2017-18: $7MM, NMC
2018-19: $6.5MM, NMC
2019-20: $5.5MM, NMC
2020-21: $3.5MM, modified-NTC
2021-22:$3.5MM, modified-NTC
2022-23: $3.5MM, modified-NTC

The front-loaded nature of the deal also poses a problem for the Stars, should they ever need to use a buyout on Bishop as he ages. With a low salary in the final few years, a buyout wouldn’t provide as much cap relief for the team, though the change to a modified no-trade clause (though details have not yet been released) could provide an avenue of escape.

Regardless of the risk involved down the road, Bishop will immediately have a big responsibility on his shoulders, trying to bring the Stars back to the promised land after a disaster season. The team will have two first-round picks to add to the stable, allowing a quick injection of talent to a roster that should already be competing for the playoffs.

Pierre LeBrun of TSN was first to report the deal was close, and also provided the first financial details.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Options For Dallas Stars With Current Goaltenders

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When the Dallas Stars traded a fourth-round pick for the negotiating rights to Ben Bishop yesterday, they made it clear that their is to be a change in goaltending in Texas. The duo of Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi hasn’t fared well enough, and missing the playoffs again in the primes of Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn is unacceptable. Bishop still needs a new contract, but all signs point to the two sides already having some common ground. Antti Niemi

So the Stars now face another decision, what do to with Lehtonen and Niemi. Their respective cap-hits of $5.9MM and $4.5MM are both extremely high for a backup, making each of them a target for buyout or trade. While they have just one year remaining on their deals, if Dallas wants to be in contention for other free agents this summer, moving both and acquiring a cheaper backup for Bishop would be the best outcome. Let’s look at some of the ways the Stars could rid themselves of one or both goaltenders.

Trade

While neither goaltender is worth the salary he currently earns, there may be options around the league of teams willing to eat the contract for a year in order to bring in another asset. If Dallas is willing to retain some of the salary, it would open up even more of these options. Teams like Vancouver, New Jersey or even Los Angeles could take on a reduced-price goaltender along with a pick to rid Dallas of the headache. Remember that the Stars can retain up to 50% of the contract, and could technically do it with both goaltenders if they found suitors.

Though this option will definitely be explored, it still seems unlikely that the Stars will find a team willing to do it. Most potential trade partners will realize the bind that Dallas is in, and may demand too high a price just to take on the contract. It’s doubtful the Stars will want to damage their future any further when other exit plans exist.

Expansion

Perhaps the longest of shots, the Stars could use Vegas as a landing spot for one of the two goaltenders. It’s clear that the Golden Knights would not want to select either of them in the draft over some of the other available Dallas players, but like a rebuilding club could accept an asset as incentive to pick one. The biggest sticking point here is the amount of excellent goaltending options available in the draft, and whether or not Vegas sees this opportunity as more valuable than taking another one of them.

Buyouts

Should the Stars decide that a buyout is the only option, the terms would look like this (via CapFriendly).

Lehtonen:

2017-18 – Cap hit $2.57MM, Savings $3.33MM
2018-19 – Cap hit $1.67MM, Savings -$1.67MM

Niemi:

2017-18 – Cap hit $1.5MM, Savings $3.0MM
2018-19 – Cap hit $1.5MM, Savings -$1.5MM

While neither of these options are perfect, as they mean you’re paying them for an extra season it does give them immediate relief while not sacrificing an additional asset. It’s the most likely outcome of the three, with Niemi being the leading candidate for it. The first buyout window opens on June 15th, meaning that the Stars will have a couple of days to decide what to do before their expansion draft protection lists are due. Should they be unable to find a taker for one of the contracts, they might just have to bite the bullet and pay one of their current goaltenders not to play for their team.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Ben Bishop Traded To The Dallas Stars

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The Dallas Stars have acquired Ben Bishop from the Los Angeles Kings in exchange for a fourth-round pick. Bishop is a pending unrestricted free agent and is still not under contract for next season. The pick originally belonged to Montreal, and was acquired by the Stars in the Jordie Benn deal from earlier this year."<strong

After being dealt mid-season from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles, Bishop is heading into free agency coming off just 39 games played and a .910 save percentage. Neither of these numbers show the lofty heights that Bishop is capable of, as prior to this season he received Vezina votes two out of the last three years. If Dallas could get him signed, he’d easily become the best goaltender in town, even if it is a quite crowded crease.

The Stars already have Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi under contract for next season at a combined cap-hit of $10.4MM, meaning at least one goaltender will have to be either bought out or traded before the start of the season. The pair put up very substandard goaltending this season, a big reason why the Stars dropped right out of the playoff picture just a year removed from leading the Western Conference.

Bishop represents a potential huge upgrade in the crease, but doesn’t come without his own warts. He’ll turn 31 this season and has a lot of leverage now that Scott Darling has been taken off the market. Bishop would hit free agency as the clear #1 available goaltender even after his down year, and likely demand a contract in excess of $5MM per season on a multi-year deal. If he were to repeat the season he had this year the Stars would be in exactly the same situation but with a longer term deal on their hands.

In the end though, the Stars had to do something to improve the situation as they start a new era under a familiar face. Ken Hitchcock is back behind the bench and the team will be expected to have some immediate success as they continue through the primes of Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin. The latter is only under contract for two more seasons, after which he could legitimately bolt for a cup contender if there isn’t any improvement on the ice in Dallas.

For Los Angeles, they recoup some of the value they sent to Tampa Bay at the deadline and move Bishop out before he left for nothing. Helene Elliott of the Los Angeles Times reports that former Kings GM Dean Lombardi had been interested in keeping Bishop, though that would have been difficult considering Jonathan Quick is firmly entrenched as the starter. The team will now look around at other backup options for next season, including Jack Campbell a former Stars’ prospect that has had a renaissance of sorts with Ontario of the AHL.

Multiple reports have the two sides ready to start talking contracts over the next few days, though they haven’t actually discussed anything yet. Had Bishop hit the open market, Dallas would likely have been an attractive landing spot given their recent success and lack of goaltending competition—despite the big salaries. John Shannon of Sportsnet seems to confirm this, reporting that Bishop told the Kings that he preferred certain teams including Dallas. If they can get a deal done, the biggest losers of this deal may be much further north as both Calgary and Winnipeg (among others) would have likely had interest in the 6’7″ netminder. Unfortunately Calgary was on his no-trade list, though that doesn’t necessarily mean he wouldn’t have been interested. They’ll now have to look elsewhere to find an upgrade in net, and with options dwindling in free agency, perhaps it will have to be through trade.

Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News was first to hear about the deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Goalies Wanted: Teams With Desperate Need

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Goaltending is perhaps the most under-appreciated position in all the world of sport. While it is true that a team doesn’t need a dominant goaltender to win a Stanley Cup or even compete for one, a poor performance by a tender can absolutely destroy a season or a series. There are still a number of teams with question marks in net, and the premier talent isn’t exactly in abundance. The expansion draft further complicates matters for a number of teams, who will need to make a determination as to who will be the tender going forward. Here are three teams which desperately need solutions to their issues in the crease this off-season.

Winnipeg Jets – The team had three goaltenders this season. None of them played well. Michael Hutchinson is a dime-a-dozen depth goalie who is likely to be exposed, and the former starter Ondrej Pavelec is without a contract and never earned another.  The 23 year-old Connor Hellebuyck will be protected, and shows great promise. That said, his .907 save percentage and overall streakiness left a lot to be desired. Perhaps many of his struggles can be blamed on the lackluster defensive efforts in Winnipeg, but will Hellebuyck be ready to ascend to the next level next season? If not, will Jets fans be content with another year without hockey in mid-April? GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has always been reserved in terms of transactions, but perhaps now is the time for decisive action. In the ultra-competitive Central division, the Jets need to find a way to win tight games.

Calgary Flames – Brian Elliott looked like he had finally put it together under new coach Glen Gulutzan in the new year. And then it all fell apart. His first-round series against the Ducks was shockingly bad (.880) – he made simple point shots complete adventures and lacked any rebound control. With his team’s season on the line in Game 4, he ceded only one abysmal goal before being pulled. In light of his consistent struggles in St. Louis prior to his Calgary excursion, it’s fair to assume he will start as a backup elsewhere next year. Actual backup Chad Johnson, also not under contract, will likely be headed elsewhere. This team needs two goalies, and it’s difficult to foresee a route that doesn’t involve a trade. Marc-Andre Fleury will still be available, and Ben Bishop is sure to tempt many. The starter situation needs to be sorted immediately, and if need be, they can always circle back to Johnson for a short-term backup deal.

Dallas Stars – How can you spend so much money on goaltending and still have none of it? Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen. Niemi posted a .892 save percentage for $4.5 MM, and Lehtonen posted a .902 for $5 MM. The defense has been shored up (to a degree), but the goals still hit the twine with depressing frequency. With one season remaining on either goalie’s deal, one needs to be shipped out this off-season in favor of a more cost-effective (and hopefully generally effective) netminder. Under a new coach, a resurgence from either is possible, but it seems dangerous to gamble on that possibility. It’s possible that Vegas might want an extra large contract to hit the cap floor or veteran backup with a ring, but with the better options likely to be available, that seems unlikely. Perhaps a financially struggling franchise would be willing to take on an expensive backup, if the deal were sweetened.

Dallas Stars Sign Curtis McKenzie To One-Year Extension

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The Stars have completed their expansion draft protection, signing Curtis McKenzie to a one-year, $700K extension. They also have announced a two-year entry-level deal for goaltending prospect Landon Bow. Both contracts will begin during the 2017-18 season. Curtis McKenzie

As we predicted when the Stars extended Adam Cracknell earlier this week, McKenzie was the obvious choice for the Stars to extend and fulfill their expansion draft requirements up front. While Brett Ritchie or Radek Faksa could have been exposed to cover the requirements, both will likely be protected by the team. They now have Cracknell, McKenzie and Dan Hamhuis as expansion draft fodder that fill the 70/40 requirement.

McKenzie has played 43 games for the team this season, recording 11 points and 67 penalty minutes. His fourth-line role has been expanded slightly of late after the Stars shipped Patrick Eaves and Lauri Korpikoski out of town at the deadline. Whether he continues in that role next season is still to be determined, but he’ll benefit from the expansion draft with some guaranteed money. The 26-year old actually has two game-winning goals this season, and does have a bit of offensive upside to his game.

In his first season of professional hockey in 2013-14, McKenzie broke out with 65 points in 75 AHL contests. He has followed it up with more solid minor league numbers, though his impact at the NHL level has been less noticeable.  For a Stars team that will need to reload this offseason and try again while Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin are in their prime, McKenzie and his relatively low cap-hit could come in handy in their bottom-six.

Bow on the other hand is a 21-year old undrafted goaltender that has split time between the ECHL and AHL this season. His numbers while in the American league are poor, but has shown at least enough ability to be an intriguing lottery ticket. Goaltenders often mature much later into their game than other positions, and Bow was exceptional in his final season of junior hockey after already being passed over in the draft. Probably nothing more than organizational filler, he at least is worth an ELC to see what he can do. The Stars need all the goaltending help they can get, as the tandem of Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi continue to struggle at the NHL level.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Where Do The Dallas Stars Go From Here?

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In a couple pieces written about the Dallas Stars, The Dallas Morning News’ Mike Heika and Fan Rag’s Carolyn Wilke both look at what has gone wrong with the Stars and how best to reverse course. Heika calls them “toast,” recognizing that a 1-7-0 run sunk the Stars chances at the playoffs. Heika notes that though the Stars have missed the playoffs six out of the last eight seasons, it isn’t often in February that their season obituary could be written. While some fans may think it’s unfair to write the Stars off so early, he shows that unless the Stars go 18-5 the rest of the way, it’s pretty hopeless.

Heika offers advice, noting that the Stars need to evaluate their young defensemen, determining which ones should be kept since the expansion draft is around the corner. He also believes they need to assess their best veterans, seeing if they should take a flier on Ales Hemsky, Lauri Korpikoski, Adam Cracknell and Jiri Hudler beyond this season. It would also be best if the Stars chose one goaltender between Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen since it’s leading to a financial impasse.

Apr 29, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Stars left wing <a rel=

Wilke takes a different look, wondering if the coaching staff is to blame, and takes the approach that Ruff simply cannot be the sole blamed for the season they’ve endured. A roster decimated by injury didn’t help matters, she writes, but Ruff can still shoulder some blame with his playing decisions and deployment, not to mention an anemic penalty kill. But going in Ruff’s favor is a lack of coaches on the market, none of whom seem a good fit for the young and fast Stars. Wilke sees the Stars selling off and warns fans to wave goodbye to some of their favorite players. She also asks some questions about Jim Nill’s job.

PHR’s Glen Miller wondered a few weeks ago if the Stars are going to follow in Minnesota and Columbus’ footsteps, finding success only a year after a throw away season. Injury is certainly the greatest factor in Dallas’ fall. Further, coaches or front office executives don’t suddenly become geniuses or buffoons over one season’s time. Nill sat a little too long on the goalie issue, as Wilke points out, but without Nill, the Stars don’t have last season’s successes. His aggressiveness and eye for talent, especially with prospects, will pay dividends for the Stars. Further, looking at Jim Rutherford, who made a few tweaks to a Penguins roster and shuttled a coach, suddenly found himself hoisting a Stanley Cup six months later.

There is no secret formula. Teams like the Detroit Red Wings have shown that not everything can last forever, especially with a loyalty that has been one of the strongest in the NHL  Rutherford’s example shows that sometimes it takes a few changes to win. Others, like the Avalanche, struggle to find success no matter how many changes they make.

The Stars have the roster to compete. It may just be a few Rutherford-like moves that shows this season was an anomaly.

Western Conference Snapshots: Russell, Davidson, Coyotes, Stars

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Like many teams, the Edmonton Oilers will face some difficult choices when choosing whom to protect in the expansion draft. The recent emergence of Brandon Davidson and the team’s reported desire to re-sign Kris Russell beyond the current campaign has created a surprising logjam on the blue line. Assuming the team elects to protect seven forwards and three defensemen, it’s a near certainty that the Oil will keep Adam Larsson, Oscar Klefbom and Andrej Sekera, which means the team will have to expose Davidson. But David Staples of the Edmonton Journal offers up a solution for Edmonton: protect four defenders, including Davidson, and make Jordan Eberle available to Vegas to select.

While acknowledging that Russell has been a solid, if unspectacular addition to the team’s defense corps and probably would be worth a modest extension, Staples argues that Davidson, four years the former’s junior, is a better long-term option due to his cost and similar on-ice performance. As a pending free agent, Russell won’t have to be protected from the expansion draft unless he inks an extension prior, but Davidson will or the club risks losing him for nothing. One way to make the numbers work would be to leave Eberle unprotected. Eberle, who has two more years on a deal with a $6MM annual cap charge, has underachieved this season, registering just 11 goals in 55 games. If Vegas took a chance on the gifted offensive winger, it would solve two problems for Edmonton: one, it allows the team to keep Davidson and two, the team would save a sizable chunk of cap space which can then be allocated to long-term extensions for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who will reach restriced free agency following the 2017-18 and 2016-17 seasons, respectively.

Elsewhere in the Western Conference:

  • The Arizona Coyotes are one of only a small handful of teams known to consider themselves sellers ahead of the trade deadline and they have several marketable assets that will draw interest in the coming weeks. Sarah McLellan of AZ Central lists the players she believes could be moved at the deadline. Martin Hanzal headlines the list as she notes his size and two-way acumen would appeal to practically any playoff contender. Right-shot defender Michael Stone, in the final year of his contract, could be an attractive piece since most teams are looking for blue line depth, particularly on the right side, at this time of year. McLellan includes Shane Doan but writes that it may be next to impossible to find the right fit; a serious Stanley Cup contender in need of a player of his ilk. Perhaps the most interesting name to make the cut was that of Anthony Duclair. The 21-year-old winger was considered a foundation building block coming into the season but with just nine points in 41 games earning him a demotion to the minors, it’s clear he has fallen out of favor in the desert.
  • Mike Heika recently fielded questions from readers in a mailbag feature on SportsDayDFW.com and offered insight into a wide array of Stars-related topics. The biggest concern readers seem to share is the club’s struggles in the goal-prevention department. Heika points out that goaltending is a huge problem, with the team’s netminders registering a Save % of 0.904 compared to the Washington Capitals league-leading rate of 0.928. The Stars have committed more than $10MM of cap space to Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen, a figure more than any other team has allocated toward their top two goalies. If the Stars want to salvage their season they may need to strongly consider an upgrade between the pipes and as we learned yesterday, the team has apparently shown interest in Marc-Andre Fleury already. While the Penguins are likely going to deal Fleury before the upcoming expansion draft, it’s unclear how much they would get in return.

Trade Candidates: Marc-Andre Fleury

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With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that are likely to be dealt by March 1st.

Goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury has spent 13 season with the Pittsburgh Penguins, but this one could be his last. Finally forced out of the starter’s role by newcomer Matt Murray, Fleury now mans the bench as the clear backup. The only problem is that the Penguins now have a $5.75MM backup goaltender with a NTC and NMC, and an impending expansion draft. A proven goaltender with two Stanley Cup rings—albeit one as a backup—should be a hot commodity at the trade deadline, but the ever-evolving NHL wants less and less to do with high-priced veteran goaltenders.

Contract

Fleury has two more years left at $5.75MM a year. He also has a No-Trade Clause and a No-Movement Clause.

2016-17 Season Stats

28 GP, 25 GS, 14-7-4, .906 SV%, 3.15 GAA, 0 SO

Season Overview

Fleury had a golden opportunity to silence his doubters and take the reins back in Pittsburgh. With Matt Murray out with a broken hand to start the season, Fleury was poised for his resurgence. Unfortunately the season hasn’t unfolded that way, and Fleury sits with a less-that-stellar .906 SV% and 3.15 GAA. Fleury’s issue is inconsistency rather than mediocrity. Some nights the Penguins goaltender is a brick wall and stymies opponents left and right. Other nights he performs at replacement-level and posts disappointing stats. And since the Penguins now have Murray between the pipes, Fleury gets less and less opportunities to figure it out.

Suitors

The Dallas Stars are the main suitor so far. ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun noted on TSN’s Leaf Lunch that the Stars covet Fleury and have made preliminary inquiries. PHR’s Zach Leach covered the story in more detail here, and the fit seems like a natural one. Dallas desperately needs a goaltender after another disappointing year using the tandem of Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi. Both are putting up numbers as bad or worse then Fleury.

If the Stars trade for Fleury, expect a goaltender to go to Pittsburgh in return. Which goaltender goes the other way depends on what the Penguins add to the deal. Lehtonen has $1.5MM more of a cap hit than Niemi ($5.9MM vs $4.5MM), and both have one more year remaining after this season.

Likelihood Of A Trade

Likely. Because Fleury has a NMC, the Penguins are forced to protect him in the Expansion Draft unless he waives the clause. If the Penguins protect him, then they have to expose Matt Murray and they do not want to do that. So either Fleury waives his NMC or agrees to a trade where he can regain the starting position.

Keeping Fleury and buying him out at the end of the year represents the least efficient move by the Penguins. The Penguins would incur a $1.9MM cap hit for the next four years if they buy out Fleury. Conversely, if they trade for Lehtonen and buy him out, they incur a $2.56MM cap hit next season, and a $1.66MM cap hit the season after. If the Penguins up the ante and acquire Niemi, they incur a cap hit of $1.5MM for the next two years. The latter two buyouts represents a better deal for the Pens then dead money for four years.

The only reason the Penguins may hold onto Fleury is if they want insurance for a deep playoff run. Losing a starting goaltender significantly decreases a team’s chance at the Stanley Cup, and Pittsburgh may want Fleury as an insurance policy and accept a buyout cap hit for the next four years.

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