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Expert Consensus: What To Expect In Round One Of The 2020 NHL Draft

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While the actual date of the 2020 NHL Entry Draft is still unknown and at the very least still several months away, there is no new data for teams and draft analysts to gather on the draft class. So while the draft may seem like a long ways off, now is as good a time as any to begin dissecting the possibilities. Many draft experts agree, as several have already done their final dive into this class of prospects and released their final draft rankings. While there are a number of draft experts and services out there, here is a look at the upcoming first round based on the consensus of the most recent rankings from some of the most well-known draft analysts out there: Scott Wheeler and Corey Pronman of The Athletic (subscription required), Craig Button and Bob McKenzie of TSN, Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News, Steve Kournianos of The Draft Analyst, Chris Peters of ESPN (subscription required), and Sam Cosentino of Sportsnet:

Alexis Lafreniere Will Go No. 1

No surprise, right? Alexis Lafreniere won the battle for the first overall spot a while ago and it is hard to find anyone who still disagrees. All eight experts ranked Lafreniere at No. 1 and few bothered to even argue the merits of the selection. Lafreniere has a chance to be a generational player given his offensive skill and skating ability. Regardless of who wins Friday’s lottery, they will be selecting the Rimouski superstar with the top pick.

Quinton Byfield Will Go No. 2

Of the eight experts, all but one ranked big center Quinton Byfield as the second overall pick. If that isn’t enough, just look at his numbers, including his height and weight, and you’ll get the idea why he is a can’t-miss prospect. Byfield is the type of top-line pivot that every team needs and, like Lafreniere at No. 1, no team will pass him up regardless of their organizational depth. The Sudbury centerman is the total package and his well-roundness alone will win him this spot.

Tim Stutzle Will Probably Go No. 3

Six of eight experts predict that German sensation Tim Stutzle will be taken third overall, with a seventh ranking him second. Stutzle has come on strong this season and shaken off any doubters with his elite speed and creativity. Thrown in his achievement against men in the DEL and against his peers at the World Juniors and you have a player that has shown that he can rise to the occasion once he arrives in the NHL. If the team picking third has a drastic need for defense or has fallen in love with one of the other consensus top-ten forwards, maybe Stutzle slips past third. However, he is right on the line of being too good to pass up like Lafreniere and Byfield.

Jamie Drysdale Will Be The First Defenseman Selected

Jamie Drysdale began the draft cycle as the top-rated defenseman and he will end it that way as well. All eight experts have the Drysdale as their top-ranked defender, anywhere from No. 4 to No. 9. The draft order will very likely determine where exactly Drysdale falls. However, given his ability and an otherwise weak defense class, especially on the right side, it is hard to imagine him falling outside the top five, as there will be teams looking to trade up if those pick-holders are not interested. The slick, pay-making blue liner out or Erie is a special player with the puck on his stick, but his defensive ability is also worthy of a top selection.

Another Goalie Will Go Early

Last year, the Florida Panthers bucked the trend of goaltenders rarely being taken early in the first round when they selected Spencer Knight at No. 13 overall. Watch for the same thing to happen this year and perhaps even earlier, depending on how the draft order plays out. Russian prodigy Yaroslav Askarov is being regarded even higher than Knight and might have a chance to crack the top ten. All eight experts ranked Askarov in the first half of the first round, but six had him at tenth or earlier. Askarov is truly considered an elite goalie prospect, the likes of which have not been seen in some time, and there will very likely be a team early on who simply can’t resist taking a guaranteed future starter.

A Down Year For The Americans

After a historic American draft class in 2019, the U.S. will very much take a back seat in the first round in 2020. Only one American, USNTDP defenseman Jake Sanderson, was a consensus first-round pick among the experts and none of the eight had more than three Americans slotted in the first round. Even among those few picks there was dissent among the experts, but forwards Brendan Brisson and Thomas Bordeleau look like the most likely names to sneak in.

Forward Depth Will Define The Draft Class

If there is one thing that has been a common refrain about the 2020 draft class, it is the wealth of talented forwards available. A strong sign that this is true is the varied opinions among the experts, with some ranking forwards early in the first round that others think might still be available in the third round. Only 15 forwards were consensus first-round picks among the eight experts. Beyond Lafreniere, Byfield, and Stutzle, there are Swedish standouts Lucas Raymond and Alexander Holtz, CHL stars Marco Rossi, Cole Perfetti, Jack Quinn, Connor Zary, Mavrik Bourque, Seth Jarvis, and Dawson Mercer, Finnish phenom Anton Lundell, Russian prize Rodion Amirov, and NCAA wunderkind Dylan Holloway. Yet, there were 22 other forward prospects who received at least one first-round ranking among the eight experts, not to mention another handful who were consensus second-round picks. There will be an uncommon amount of high-end ability available through at least the first two rounds for those NHL teams with needs up front.

Elite Defense Will Be Hard To Come By

Those teams desperate for help on the blue line will not have the same luck as those in need of forwards. Among the eight experts, only Drysdale and Sanderson were consensus first-round picks and both will be gone in the first half of the first round. Just four defenseman were given first-round grades by the majority of experts – Kaiden Guhle, Braden Schneider, Jeremie Poirier, and Justin Barron – and only Guhle received a top-half ranking by more than one expert. Given the depth of forwards and the inclusion of the goaltender Askarov as a definite first-round pick, it would not be a surprise to see as few as four defensemen selected in the first round this year.

NHL Central Scouting Releases Final 2020 Draft Rankings

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Even though we still don’t know exactly when the 2020 NHL Entry Draft will be taking place, hockey fans around the world can still pour over prospect stats and lists hoping their favorite organization gets the chance to add their favorite young player at some point down the line. Today, NHL Central Scouting released its final rankings for North American and International skaters and goaltenders. The top names are as follows:

North American Skaters:

  1. Alexis Lafreniere – Rimouski, QMJHL
  2. Quinton Byfield – Sudbury, OHL
  3. Jamie Drysdale – Erie, OHL
  4. Jake Sanderson – USNTDP
  5. Cole Perfetti – Saginaw, OHL
  6. Marco Rossi – Ottawa, OHL
  7. Jack Quinn – Ottawa, OHL
  8. Kaiden Guhle – Prince Albert, WHL
  9. Braden Schneider – Brandon, WHL
  10. Dawson Mercer – Chicoutimi, QMJHL

International Skaters:

  1. Tim Stuetzle – Mannheim, DEL
  2. Alexander Holtz – Djurgarden, SHL
  3. Anton Lundell – HIFK, Liiga
  4. Lucas Raymond – Frolunda, SHL
  5. Rodion Amirov – Ufa, KHL
  6. Helge Grans – Malmo, Sweden-Jr.
  7. John-Jason Peterka – Munich, DEL
  8. Topi Niemela – Karpat, Liiga
  9. Noel Gunler – Lulea, SHL
  10. Roni Hirvonen – Assat, Liiga

North American Goalies:

  1. Nicolas Daws – Guelph, OHL
  2. Drew Commesso – USNTDP
  3. Samuel Hlavaj – Sherbrooke, QMJHL

International Goalies:

  1. Yaroslav Askarov – St. Petersburg, VHL
  2. Jan Bednar – Sokolov, Czech-2
  3. Joel Blomqvist – Karpat, Finland-Jr.

Snapshots: 2020-21 Season, Trade Conditions, 2020 Draft

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While hockey minds are hard at work trying to come up with a plan to fairly complete the 2019-20 NHL regular season and playoffs, if and when the league returns to action, those strategies cannot interfere with a full 2020-21 season. TSN’s Pierre Lebrun relays word from NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly that the league sees an 82-game season next year as imperative and will not entertain any options that call for a shortened 2020-21 season due to the interference with the 2019-20 campaign. With that said, LeBrun adds that the league will be flexible when it comes to start and end dates and schedule density next year, so long as each team plays 82 games. This could allow for the NHL to adopt an idea that has become popular amongst players during the break: a brief training camp and resumption of regular season play in July, an August and September postseason, an October off-season, and a return to action for a condensed 2020-21 season at some point in November. LeBrun notes that a cancellation of bye weeks and All-Star events next year could help to make a plan like this become reality. The NHL will look at all of their options, assuming there is a possibility that the current season can resume, to make next season run as normally as possible with 82 games being the critical criteria.

  • Should the NHL not be able to complete the 2019-20 season as scheduled, TSN’s Frank Seravalli states that one of biggest things that the NHL will need to clarify is a policy on trade and contract conditions. Those conditions are made with the implication of an 82-game schedule, as well as a full postseason. If those things become an impossibility, is there a fair way to determine whether conditions were met or not? Seravalli uses last summer’s trade between Pacific Division rivals Edmonton and Calgary as an example. In the swap of Milan Lucic for James Neal, a unique condition was added that awards the Flames a 2020 third-round pick if a) Neal scores at least 21 goals and b) Lucic scores ten or more goals fewer than Neal. As it stands, Neal has 19 goals on the season, so the first condition would not be met if the season ended today. However, since the deal was made with the assumption of 82 games, a pro-rated result would see Neal with 23 goals and Lucic with nine, which would result in Calgary landing the pick. The problem, as Seravalli describes, with either strategy is that it does not accurately make up for missed games. With a number of conditional picks and bonus clauses in play, the NHL would face the tough task of how it decides to treat conditions if the regular season and possibly the playoffs as well cannot be completed. Seravalli even mentions compensatory draft picks as a possibility to offset effected trade conditions.
  • One league event that is certain to occur, at some point and in some manner, is the 2020 NHL Draft. The draft is likely to remain in Montreal, but the June 26-27 dates look unlikely and the usual public audience and organized fanfare would be even more improbable if the event does go on as scheduled. In all likelihood, the draft will be postponed, but it will occur all the same. As such, NHL.com has released their updated March rankings of the top 31 players in the class. Although there hasn’t been much new film to study in recent weeks, with junior leagues paused, the college season cancelled, and most European leagues ending as well, the staff at NHL.com has made a notable changes since their last edition earlier this month. Finnish forward Anton Lundell has snuck into the top ten, supplanting Russian goaltender Yaroslav Askarov. Much like eventual Florida Panthers pick Spencer Knight last year, there was heavy top-ten talk about Askarov this season as well, but it has cooled somewhat of late as the depth of elite forward in the class could make it difficult to select a netminder so early.

Lafreniere, Stuetzle Lead Respective Scouting Lists

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The NHL has released their Central Scouting midterm rankings for 2020 draft eligible prospects. Alexis Lafreniere leads the North American group and is still the prospective first overall selection in June’s draft. The International list may carry some surprise however, as it is Tim Stuetzle, not Lucas Raymond or Alexander Holtz, who leads the group.

Stuetzle plays for Mannheim in the German DEL and has been flying up draft boards all season. The 6’1″ left-shot forward is nearly a point-per-game player at the professional level despite being just 17 (he’ll turn 18 later this week), with five goals and 23 points in 26 games. Add in an outstanding performance at the World Juniors tournament where he seemed to create offense at will for one of the strongest German teams we’ve ever seen, and his ranking at the top is deserved.

Behind Stuetzle are Raymond, Holtz and Anton Lundell, the latter of which was unable to attend the World Juniors and show what he could do against the best players of his age group in the world. Lundell is having a great season for HIFK in Finland however, and is another name to consider near the top of the draft.

The North American rankings don’t carry much surprise, as Lafreniere is followed by Quinton Byfield, Jamie Drysdale and Cole Perfetti as expected. Though there are several players who could move up the board by season’s end, those four are all expected to challenge for top-10 status when June’s selection process gets underway.

Among goaltenders—who are ranked separately—Nico Daws leads the North American list after winning gold with the Canadian World Junior team. Yaroslav Askarov, who won silver with the Russians, is tops on the International list and should be a first-round selection.

Anton Lundell Will Not Play In WJC

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Those who wanted to get a closer look at one of the top European prospects available in the 2020 draft will be disappointed with the news that Anton Lundell will not play for Team Finland at the upcoming World Junior Championship. There was some hope that Lundell would be able to heal fast enough from his recent injury to join the team, but today saw the end of any chance he would be back to defend his gold medal.

Lundell, 18, actually assisted on the golden goal last year that Kaapo Kakko scored to secure the tournament win for Finland and was expected to be one of the best forwards on the ice this time around. The 6’1″ forward has 12 points in 20 games playing for HIFK at the highest level in Finland this season and is in consideration as a top-five selection in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft.

Like many Finnish stars of recent years, Lundell has excellent puck protection skills and can shoot the puck from several different positions. Mike Morreale of NHL.com included the talented forward as his eighth-best prospect in a ranking from early October, and a strong performance at the World Juniors could have helped that stock even more. Unfortunately that won’t happen, though obviously a return to health is more important for his long-term future.

Finland lost 4-2 to Team Canada in the final pre-tournament game earlier today, and will kick things off against rival Sweden on December 26th.

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