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Deadline Primer: Nashville Predators

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With the trade deadline now just weeks away, we’re taking a closer look at each team.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?

Many people, including everyone’s favorite PHR writer, considered the Nashville Predators to be a dark horse candidate to win the Stanley Cup in 2016-17. While we are still a few months out from seeing if that comes to fruition, at this point in time the team looks an awful lot like the same team it was last year. The addition of P.K. Subban and what many suspected would be the best puck-moving defense in the NHL has been hindered by long injury absences to both top pair defensemen. Ryan Johansen is performing well, but still not up to the level that he exhibited with the Columbus Blue Jackets. Scoring bumps by captain Mike Fisher, Viktor Arvidsson, and Colin Wilson have been counteracted by drop-offs from James Neal, Craig Smith, and Mattias Ekholm. Overall, the teams middling numbers in goals for and goals against are eerily similar to what they were in 2015-16.

If this team is, for all intents and purposes, the same team it was last year, that’s not a bad thing. The 2015-16 Predators clinched the first wild card spot in the Western Conference and upset the Pacific-winning Anaheim Ducks in the first round. They then lost to the eventual conference champion San Jose Sharks, but took them seven games, which is more than the St. Louis Blues could do in the championship round. It was the best postseason performance in franchise history. However, the current iteration of the Predators is sitting in the second wild card spot, trailing the Blues and trying to hold off the Los Angeles Kings, and is on pace to finish five points shy of last year’s mark. They got off to a slows start and have had to grind their way back into the conversation. Although the numbers are similar, this year’s team feels just a little off. After an impressive 2015-16 campaign, instead of shocking the league with a triumphant sequel, the Predators are not even guaranteed a playoff spot this year, despite playing nearly identical hockey.

As always, Nashville is lousy with salary cap space. GM David Poile is one of the best there is and has already shown a willingness to make moves with the recent acquisitions of Cody McLeod and Vernon Fiddler. If Poile believes that this team has what it takes to go farther than any Predators have gone before, expect him to put that space, a nearly-full collection of draft picks, and quite a bit of prospect capital to work as the Trade Deadline grows closer.

Record

27-21-8, 4th in the Central Division, 8th in the Western Conference

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

Current Cap Space: $13,756,773

Deadline Cap Space: $18,571,644

45/50 contracts, via CapFriendly

Draft Picks

2017: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 5th, NSH 6th, NYR 6th, NSH 7th
2018: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 6th, NSH 7th

Trade Chips

Just like when the Predators shipped Seth Jones to Columbus for Johansen last year, expect Poile to dangle some young defenseman in front of teams this month. Nashville has Subban, Ekholm, Roman Josi, and Ryan Ellis locked up long term. Do they really need Anthony Bitetto? Petter Granberg? Trevor Murphy? They could even offer up promising young blue liners like Alexandre Carrier, Dante Fabbro, or Samuel Girard for the right return. On the flip side, all of this talented prospect depth on defense could also allow them to move an Ellis or Ekholm if presented with a big-ticket offer. Normally a contender wouldn’t consider such a major move in-season, but this where the upcoming Expansion Draft comes into play. If the Predators want to protect their four star defensemen, as one would imagine they do, they can then only protect four forwards as well, potentially leaving big names like Arvidsson, Smith, and Wilson exposed. It also limits who Nashville can bring in at the deadline, as any player with term remaining on their contract changes the protection formula. However, by trading one of the defenseman and just protecting the three others, the Predators could then protect seven forwards, removing their top six and any additional acquisitions from harm’s way.

Players To Watch

D Anthony Bitetto, D Trevor Murphy, D Alexandre Carrier, F Pontus Aberg, F Miikka Salomaki

Team Needs

1)  Scoring Forward – The Predators simply aren’t putting the puck in the net enough. They need a forward who can score goals himself, help to create goals for the struggling second and third lines, and help out on the 17th-ranked power play. The top name (reportedly) on the market is Matt Duchene, and with Nashville’s wealth of defensive talent, they may actually be able to meet the Colorado Avalanche’s high asking price. Adding another center would also allow the Predators to move Calle Jarnkrok to his natural wing positions. Whether it’s a center or wing or a sniper, speedster, or power forward, Nashville will likely be in on anyone who can help with production up front. A talented scoring forward is really need one, two, and three for this team if there are multiple rental guys out there who they can grab without paying too much.

2) Defensive defenseman – As good as Matt Irwin and Yannick Weber have unexpectedly been for the Preds this season, neither really inspires much confidence as a playoff starter. Nor does Brad Hunt, the next man up, who was picked up off of waivers from St. Louis last month, but has yet to play. What Nashville needs is a veteran shutdown defenseman to eat up some postseason minutes and play responsible defensive hockey. Poile has also shown through his recent moves that he feels the team needs more grit and toughness. If the Predators are still rolling come March 1st and feel good about their playoff chances, this need could turn into a big acquisition. Otherwise, a nice depth player who presents an upgrade over their current #5-#7 defenders would still be helpful albeit more affordable and reasonable.

 

Central Notes: Campbell, Yakupov, Avalanche, Nashville Injuries

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Although defenseman Brian Campbell wound up declining a bigger contract offer from Florida both in terms of years and dollars, he told George Richards of the Miami Herald that he has no regrets about spurning that in order to return to Chicago:

“I’m smiling now, I’m happy. I don’t look back and I know I made the right decision when I signed here. I did it for my family and for myself as a hockey player. Hopefully I have a bunch of years left but I want to make the most of them.”

Back in June, GM Tom Rowe offered Campbell a two year, $8MM deal in the hopes that negotiations would ensue from there.  However, the 37 year old had his heart set on going back to Chicago where he and his family kept a summer home there despite the fact that he had been traded from the Blackhawks back in 2011.  Given that Chicago is perpetually hovering right near the salary cap though, they weren’t able to come close to matching Florida’s initial offer; he wound up for signing for a $1.5MM guarantee and a $750K games played bonus, one that has already been achieved.

Campbell is playing a smaller role than he had with the Panthers as his average ice time is down over three and a half minutes per game from last season.  However, he has been a quality contributor so far for the Blackhawks in a depth role, picking up eight points in 24 games while logging a regular role on the power play.

Elsewhere in the Central Division:

  • Although he has been a healthy scratch in seven of the last 12 games, St. Louis GM Doug Armstrong still stands by his acquisition of Nail Yakupov, writes Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Armstrong feels that the low acquisition price (a conditional third round pick and ECHL prospect Zach Pochiro) makes the move a worthwhile gamble, even if Yakupov only plays a sparing role.  He also highlighted the recent play of right winger Dmitrij Jaskin as one of the reasons that Yakupov hasn’t played as much recently.  Still, it’s fair to wonder if the former number one overall pick in 2012 could be in need of another change of scenery given that his $2.5MM cap hit is steep for the depth role Yakupov currently has.
  • Colorado prospect left winger Sam Henley will make his NHL debut tonight against Columbus, reports Terry Frei of the Denver Post. Henley, an undrafted free agent signing back in 2014, has just four points in 19 games this season with AHL San Antonio but the team is interested in his ability to kill penalties as they’re set to take on the number one power play in the league.  Gabriel Bourque, another checking forward, will also make his season debut and should see time on the penalty kill as well.
  • The Predators have downgraded the status of left winger James Neal from day-to-day to week-to-week, The Tennessean’s Adam Vingan notes. He suffered an upper body injury against Winnipeg last week.  Also, defenseman Anthony Bitetto, who just last week returned after missing 18 games with an upper body injured, suffered a broken hand on Tuesday and will be back on the shelf for another six weeks.

Central Division Snapshots: Landeskog, Barrie, Kristo, Bitetto

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It must be mailbag day on the NHL beat. Earlier we linked to Joe Haggerty’s piece on the Bruins and now Mike Chambers of The Denver Post chimes in answering some tough questions regarding the Avalanche. First and foremost, Chambers discusses Gabriel Landeskog and what his expectations are for the gifted power forward. In the opinion of the scribe, based on his talent and the fact he was the second overall pick in the 2011 draft, Landeskog has to start producing 30-goal seasons in order to live up to his billing.

Landeskog posted a career-high 26 goals in 2013-14 and since has recorded seasons of 23 and 20 markers. He has netted four goals in 15 games this season which would put him on a full-season pace of 20 – 21.

As Chambers notes, Landeskog is a good NHL player and is the Avalanche captain, but with Colorado once again off to a slow start, Colorado needs him to start being great if they want to sneak back into the playoff race. Currently, the five-year veteran left wing is out of action due to a lower-body-injury.

There were rumblings that Colorado could shake up its core this past summer and one player rumored to perhaps be moved in such a scenario was Landeskog. GM Joe Sakic instead kept the core intact and simply made a couple of changes around the edges. However, if Colorado doesn’t start playing better soon, they may revisit that choice and Landeskog could be made available later this season.

Elsewhere around the Central Division:

  • In the same mailbag, Chambers took a question on Tyson Barrie. Barrie, prior to inking a four-year, $22MM extension this summer, was also thought to possibly be available via trade. As a right-handed blue liner with plenty of offensive ability, many teams would have been interested in Barrie’s services. Clearly he is viewed as a top-end puck moving defender, which as Chambers notes, often comes with high-risk, high-reward tendencies. Chambers argues that when the team is going well, the mistakes are easily overlooked. On the flip side, when things are not going so well, each mistake is magnified.
  • St. Louis Blues and Pittsburgh completed a minor deal today, with minor league forward Danny Kristo headed to the Penguins and defenseman Reid McNeill headed the other way. The news was first reported via the Blues official Twitter account. Kristo was Montreal’s second-round pick in 2008 and has also played in the New York Rangers organization. He appeared in 71 games for the Chicago Wolves, tallying 25 goals and 48 points. McNeill, two years Kristo’s junior, was selected in the sixth-round of the 2010 draft by St. Louis. With 409 penalty minutes in 234 career minor league games, the 6-foot-4, 216-pound blue liner appears to be more of a physical force than an offensive threat. The trade likely serves as little more than two clubs searching for minor league depth with the Blues moving a forward while acquiring some blue line help.
  • Nashville Predators defenseman Anthony Bitetto has been assigned to the club’s AHL affiliate on a conditioning assignment, tweets Adam Vingan of The Tennessean. Bitetto has been out since opening night with an upper-body-injury. It will be interesting to see what the Predators do once the 26-year-old blue liner completes his conditioning assignment. In his absence, Yannick Weber has stepped into the top-six and has three assists in 15 appearances. Former Shark Matt Irwin has replaced veteran Matt Carle in the lineup and has responded with three goals and five points in 10 games. It seems likely that Weber would be the odd man out though there is no indication from Nashville or Vingan that this is the case.

Injury Notes: Schwartz, Crosby, Hartman, Bitetto, McGinn

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St. Louis forward Jaden Schwartz has started skating as he continues to recover from an elbow injury sustained late in September, Tom Timmermann of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.  While he will accompany the team on their road trip to Western Canada early next week, he still isn’t ready just yet to return to the lineup.

Schwartz was originally expected to miss at least a month with the injury and it’s about halfway into that timeline currently.  Head coach Ken Hitchcock doesn’t have a firm expectation of when Schwartz should return to the lineup but it would appear he’s pretty much on schedule at this time.

With the departures of David Backes and Troy Brouwer this offseason, Schwartz will be expected to take on a larger role in the offense for the Blues this year.  In an injury-riddled 2015-16 campaign, he had 22 points in 33 games but put up point totals of 63 and 56 in the previous two seasons.  St. Louis inked him to a five year, $26.75MM extension back in July.

Other injury news and notes from around the league:

  • Penguins center Sidney Crosby skated on his own for the fifth straight day after being diagnosed with a concussion back on Monday, Sam Werner of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes. Head coach Mike Sullivan is encouraged by Crosby’s progress but there remains no timetable for his return to game action.  He has yet to receive the green light to participate in contact drills.
  • Chicago right winger Ryan Hartman suffered a lower body injury in a goalmouth scramble in just his second shift in Friday’s loss to Nashville, Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun-Times notes. Head coach Joel Quenneville didn’t provide a projected timeframe for his return but added that Hartman will “miss some time”.  The 22 year old has a goal and an assist in two games so far this season.
  • Predators defenseman Anthony Bitetto suffered an upper body injury in a fight against Nashville’s Jordin Tootoo on Friday night. He left the game and did not return.  Thomas Willis of the Predators website reports (via Twitter) that he will not play tonight.  Instead, Yannick Weber will make his season debut.  Bitetto is expected to be re-evaluated on Monday.
  • Coyotes left winger Jamie McGinn will have to wait a little while longer to make his regular season debut with Arizona as he continues to recover from an upper body injury, AZ Central’s Sarah McLellan notes via Twitter. Head coach Dave Tippett said he remains day-to-day and that it’s questionable that he will travel with the team for their upcoming Eastern Conference road trip next week.

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