PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include forecasting the next contract for the top-scoring pending UFA, Buffalo’s turnaround, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s column while we have one more mailbag to come from our latest call for questions.

bigalval: Does Ken Holland have any clue what he’s doing? Rob Blake was bad and Holland’s moves have been puzzling at best.

Holland has been around long enough that I’m confident in saying he knows what he’s doing; there is a plan in place.  His moves over the offseason clearly signaled that he was leaning into the team playing a slower, more deliberate game and that after being unable to land a big fish, he leaned into building up their depth.  You can quibble with some of the moves made (and I’d say you’re probably right to do so) but I understand the method to the madness.

Then there’s the Artemi Panarin move.  If you’re thinking that moving a first-round prospect in Liam Greentree to get him with a two-year extension doesn’t make sense for a bubble team, I get that.  The rebuild is probably coming at some point; it can only be stalled so long.  And with Los Angeles struggling mightily offensively, this might not have been the right time to take a big swing.  Clearly, Holland believes that this group could do some damage in a Pacific Division that’s up for grabs; they just have to get there first.

That belief I suspect also shaped the decision to make a coaching change, even if it came a lot later than most would have expected.  The results have been middling since D.J. Smith took over (not unlike how they were before) but there’s still time to win a few and really lock down a playoff spot.  I like the approach to go with an interim coach in case they want to pivot to a different option over the summer and perhaps change their system a little more drastically.

So far, things have largely looked like more of the same under Holland despite a much higher volume of moves.  But there’s a plan in place; I’m just not sure it’s necessarily the right one as again, that rebuild is bound to happen at some point and it wouldn’t shock me if it’s sooner than later.

lgr34561: Do you think this recent hot streak with Gabriel Perreault and more specifically Alexis Lafreniere is legit and something Rangers fans should be seriously optimistic about or just assume it’s Lafreniere just going on a short streak then back to his old ways?

Generally speaking, I try not to read too much into how players perform down the stretch when they’re on teams playing for nothing but pride.  However, there’s still room for some optimism with how those two have performed as of late.

This month, Perreault has four goals and eight assists in 10 games.  Perhaps more notably, he’s averaging over 18 minutes per game in March.  Those are legitimate top-level reps that are going to help him beyond this season.  The Rangers drafted Perreault with the hope that he can be an impactful top-six forward for them.  I’m not sure he’s going to be fully ready to be that next season (a lot will depend on offseason moves as well) but this stretch suggests that he’s trending in the right direction to have that role.

As for Lafreniere, he has done this before, where he has a good stretch.  However, he hasn’t followed that up by continuing it for an extended amount of time.  He’s not going to have that chance here either with the season almost over.  Don’t get me wrong, 14 points in 10 March games is nice to see but I’m not ready to think that this is the beginning of the long-awaited breakout.  I think this But if GM Chris Drury is pondering trading the 24-year-old this summer, this performance certainly can’t hurt from a value standpoint.

FeeltheThunder: I already asked about Nikita Kucherov’s extension. Now, I must ask about Darren Raddysh. How do you think Tampa will approach the intriguing Raddysh conundrum? GM Julien BriseBois had recently stated he wants to keep Raddysh wearing a Bolts’ jersey after this season and Tampa will have an admirable amount of cap space this offseason ranging around $15 to $16 million. I feel Tampa will keep him, it’s just what is the final price and term going to be?

Also, Tampa didn’t get an extra RD at the trade deadline, so do you think they’ll search for an additional RD in the offseason of FA even with Raddysh, Cernak, and Crozier and if so, who might those prospects potentially be?

This might be the most fascinating contract of the offseason.  Heading into the season, Raddysh looked like he was heading for a nice raise after back-to-back 30-plus-point years.  Making $975K this season, if he landed in the $3.5MM range or so with his limited usage, that would have made sense for both sides.

But then this season happened.  Raddysh doesn’t just lead all pending UFA defensemen in points but rather pending unrestricted free agents, period.  He’s up to 60 points in as many games.  And it’s not as if he’s still getting limited minutes either; he’s averaging close to 23 minutes per night and even seeing light penalty killing playing time.  Being a right-shot defender with this type of output in a market where cap space exceeds the quality of players available and you have the perfect storm for a huge offer.

Given where things are, I could see a team, perhaps begrudgingly, offering $7.5MM per season for Raddysh, rationalizing that even if he winds up in the 45-50-point range next year, it could still age well.  I don’t think Tampa Bay would be willing to go quite that high, even with their cap space and right-side situation.  GM Julien BriseBois isn’t known for paying top dollar.  I could see a long-term pact (six years or so) around $6MM or so being where the two sides ultimately settle where he leaves a bit on the table to stay but still gets life-changing money.

Assuming that they get Raddysh re-signed, I think they’ll be content enough with him and Cernak as their top two right-shot rearguards.  I could see them looking for a third-pairing player that keeps Maxwell Crozier in a reserve role, however.  Nick Jensen coming off an injury-riddled season is eligible for a one-year, bonus-laden deal.  That feels like a good fit, giving him a soft landing spot to try to rebuild some value while possibly giving Tampa Bay some value for the role.  A reunion with Luke Schenn could be a viable option as well.

FeeltheThunder: I want to add one more question here. I think Tampa should look for a new backup goaltender this offseason as Jonas Johansson is just way too hot and cold. I think if they bring in competition this offseason like a UFA in Matt Murray, for example, would be an improvement. Also, Tampa may need an AHL goaltender for Syracuse if they don’t bring back Brandon Halverson (which would be surprising) but they could have Johansson for that if so. What do you think of the whole situation?

For years now, the Lightning have been in a spot where they haven’t had a choice but to go with low-cost options.  Some of that has been self-inflicted with their other moves but now, as you noted with your first question, they have a lot more cap flexibility this summer.  I think they would benefit from upgrading on Johansson, it just comes down to how much more money they want to spend on the position.  Murray is one who isn’t exactly the most consistent either but if they just wanted to bring in someone for competition (and waive the one who doesn’t make it), I could see that happening.  And if so, that might push Halverson out.

Otherwise, I’d hope they’d aim a little higher and try to get someone who can maybe cover 25-30 games a season.  With the increased minimum salary next season, they’d clear all but $25K of Johansson’s salary off the books with an AHL assignment so I think it’d be worth their while to explore it.

As for the AHL side, it feels like about a third of the veteran goalies bounce around from year to year.  If Halverson leaves, there will be plenty of other AHL veterans to choose from so I wouldn’t worry too much about that situation.  It actually wouldn’t surprise me if they look to an international goalie in free agency, a younger one that could see some time with the Crunch while trying to see if they can develop a future backup for a couple of years from now.

Read more

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include thoughts on what Utah did and didn’t do at the trade deadline, the rescinding of Nathan MacKinnon’s major penalty, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in our next two mailbag columns.

SpeakOfTheDevils: I know what he said in his after-deadline presser but what are the odds that Tom Fitzgerald is fired as the GM of the NJ Devils this offseason? Second part, who would be the top three choices to replace him???

General managers typically get a longer leash than coaches but he’s had the role since January 2020 when he took over in an interim capacity, getting the tag lifted soon after.  He’s had five full seasons in charge and the Devils have won just one playoff round in that span.  Barring a miracle comeback over the final month, they won’t get a chance to add to that number this spring.  Yes, they’ve had some injuries, but they can’t use that as a crutch again.  Based on that, you might be inclined to think the odds are rather high that he’d be fired.

But he’s also the team president, a role he has only held since January 2024.  His contract terms weren’t disclosed but there are probably a couple of years left on it.  And if ownership still believes in his vision, maybe he stays.

Maybe there’s an in-between option, one we’ve seen more frequently in recent years.  What if Fitzgerald is moved to just president duties and cedes the GM role?  Is that viewed as a possible compromise?  I could see that happening, so maybe the odds of him not being GM could be in the 50-60% range and the odds of him leaving the organization outright more in the 30-40% territory.

As for part two, if Fitzgerald is out as GM, a lot depends on if he’s out altogether or just as GM.  If they remove the GM title but keep him as president, Dan MacKinnon, their assistant GM, would be the logical choice to move up and take on a bigger role.  If he’s gone altogether, I think Marc Bergevin would get consideration.  He has been up for a couple of jobs lately and it feels like a matter of when, not if, he gets another crack.  Brendan Shanahan is believed to be looking to get back into things.  That one might be more of a president role but I think he’d be on the list.  I also expect Ryan Martin to land one of the GM jobs soon.  A veteran of 20 years in various front offices, he’s second in command with the Rangers at the moment and a chance to steal someone from a key rival might be appealing.

bottlesup: With the addition of Weegar, could you see the Mammoth possibly upsetting whoever the Pacific Division champ is in the 1st round? Assuming Utah continues to hold a firm grip on the WC1.

I’ll preface this by saying that I like the MacKenzie Weegar pickup for Utah.  Yes, he’s having a down year but the track record is solid and if he’s in more of a second-pairing role for the Mammoth which he’s better suited to, I think he’ll bounce back a bit.  So far, the early returns have been decent.  But is he a big needle-mover?  I’m not sure he materially affects their odds of winning a series.  He helps get them there, but I don’t think his addition necessarily gives them a big leg up against a Pacific team.

Having said that, I think Utah has a legitimate chance to pull off an upset, simply because the Pacific Division just isn’t that great.  Anaheim is playing well but like Utah, they’re very inexperienced in the playoffs so that could be a toss-up.  Vegas isn’t turning things around like many expected them to.  However, they have a good enough track record in the playoffs that they’d probably be the favorite in a hypothetical series.  The same can be said about Edmonton.  The Kings and Sharks aren’t entirely out of it but probably aren’t getting into first place so I won’t cover them here.  Utah has a shot at making it through the first round if they can hold onto that top Wild Card spot.

Gbear: Feels to me that Utah missed a chance at the deadline to add a top-six winger (the whole Thomas thing from the Blues was a non-starter) and really give themselves a chance to win a round or two. Keller deserved that chance. Thoughts?

After they picked up Weegar without moving any of their top assets, I thought Utah GM Bill Armstrong was well-positioned to make a splash up front but it obviously didn’t happen.  I don’t know how much of a chance was missed, though.  Which top-six wingers actually moved?  Bobby Brink has been one before, Conor Garland (who the team is familiar with from their days in Arizona), and, well, that’s about it.  Centers and defensemen were the currency and that’s something Utah didn’t need to dabble in, especially knowing they were nearing an extension with Nick Schmaltz that has since been finalized and that they had already acquired Weegar.

It’s not a bad thing either that they didn’t push in a bunch of chips.  There’s something to be said for getting some playoff experience and then using that to shape their next aggressive swing over the summer.  And, as noted above, they’re in a spot where they could very well get through the first round if they wind up in the Pacific bracket.  I expect there will be more opportunities to add a top-six winger over the offseason than there were at the trade deadline so in the end, they might wind up being better off for having waited, assuming they get something across the finish line a few months from now.

sovietcanuckistanian: I don’t know about you, but did Edmonton miss the boat by not significantly upgrading either/both of its defense corps and goalie at the trade deadline? With Florida almost assuredly not making the playoffs (injury bug), it seems like a missed opportunity – especially since McDavid is on that only two-year extension.

I’m going to flip the order of these so I can pick up on the theme from the last question about how realistic a move for a goalie upgrade there was.  There wasn’t a single NHL goaltender moved at or leading up to the deadline.  I know there was speculation about Sergei Bobrovsky but I don’t think trade talks got far considering Florida is trying to re-sign him.  Jordan Binnington’s name was out there but the Oilers can’t afford to take on the contract and I don’t think St. Louis would have retained salary.  Was anyone else out there really an upgrade?  There were rumblings about a Toronto goalie but that feels more like an offseason decision.  Samuel Montembeault’s name was thought to be in play but is he an improvement given how his season has gone?  It’s hard to be too critical in that sense since there wasn’t much out there that they could do.

Granted, some of that is self-inflicted.  GM Stan Bowman traded for Tristan Jarry’s contract in full, cutting into their financial flexibility.  He also signed Andrew Mangiapane to a contract that they wound up having to pay a high price to get out of, also cutting into that flexibility.  That Jarry trade was risky at the time it was made and hasn’t aged well since then.

That financial situation also limited what they could do defensively, although I think they did well enough with what they had to work with.  Connor Murphy isn’t a top-four player anymore but he should stabilize things defensively and help on the penalty kill.  They didn’t have the cap space to do much more than a depth deal, nor did they have the prospect or draft assets to get into the bidding on some of the more prominent blueliners to move.

It’s a missed opportunity in the sense that Florida isn’t in the playoffs and the division is up for grabs.  Edmonton could very well have bolstered their chances to take the division and give them a chance to make the Conference Final once again.  But in terms of their limitations (asset and cap-wise), I don’t think they did terribly.  It wasn’t an ‘A’ deadline but a ‘B-‘ or ‘C+’ one.

tucsontoro: The Hawks lead the league in blown leads. It’s great that they have Boisvert and Frondell on the verge of joining the big club. But if they don’t find a way to keep the puck out of their own net, they won’t be going anywhere for a long time. Where does the defense come from?

In a nutshell, time and external acquisitions.  Unfortunately for rebuilding teams, there is no fast-forward button when it comes to defensive development.  While young forwards can sometimes make a big impact right away, it doesn’t generally happen as often with defensemen.  Generally, the thought is a blueliner needs at least 200 to 250 NHL games before they’re truly ready and might not hit their prime for a little while after that.  Chicago only has two players in that range and one of them (Matt Grzelcyk) is on an expiring deal; Alex Vlasic is the other at 243.

Sam Rinzel will get there.  So will Artyom Levshunov.  But they’re a couple more years away at least from getting to a baseline level of reliability defensively and likely longer before they’re consistently counted on as shutdown players.

In the meantime, GM Kyle Davidson will need to look outside the organization to bring in some help.  They have a boatload of draft assets and prospects to deal from, particularly down the middle; with centers being in high demand, they can take advantage of it.  An external add or two like that over the next few seasons will help in those late-game situations but it’s going to take some time before Chicago is much more reliable when it comes to holding the lead.  It’s something that a lot of young teams go through and the process can rarely be sped up.

Read more

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include the types of moves Utah should look to make, the top fourth lines in the NHL, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in one of our last two mailbag columns.

bottlesup: With what the Avalanche are doing right now and with Vegas acquiring Rasmus Andersson, is there a world in which my Stars can possibly make the Stanley Cup Final?

At this point, I wouldn’t be as concerned about Vegas.  Yes, they’re better, but they’re a third-round opponent (Dallas isn’t dropping to a Wild Card spot and lining up with the Pacific Division) and with shaky goaltending this season, they’re beatable in a seven-game series.  Not saying the Stars would for sure win but they’d have a solid chance.

Now, assuming they get past Minnesota in the first round, Colorado is its own unique test.  Yes, they slumped before the break but let’s face it, teams that have a runaway first half tend to take their foot of the gas a little, so to speak.  That doesn’t worry me.  The Avs would be the favorites in that series but they’re also not unbeatable.  I’d say that Jake Oettinger would need to be sharper than he has been this season for them to have a chance.

For Dallas to get the best chance to make it through to the Cup Final, they need to add defensive help.  They have a strong top three but then are piecing it together from there with iffier options that you might not want to rely on for 16-plus minutes per game in the postseason.  A solid defensive second-pairing blueliner that can help the penalty kill and take some pressure off the third pairing would help.  A bit more firepower in the bottom six would help their chances as well.  Once they get a better sense of whether Tyler Seguin can return (keeping their LTIR pool intact) or not (an SELTIR placement would add nearly $6MM to that pool), they’ll see how feasible those acquisitions could be.

Long story short, there’s definitely a world in which Dallas gets there.  They’re one of the top teams in the league for a reason.  They have a strong, experienced core group that has had some playoff success before.  They’re not the favorite to come out of the West today but someone has to survive the gauntlet and it could very well be them.

Cla23: The Winnipeg Jets always claimed to be a draft-and-develop team. Meanwhile, they are one of the oldest teams, the Moose are not very good, and a lot of young players want out as they feel they are not getting a chance with the big club; their drafting is poor as well.

Do you think it is time to shake up the management and scouting staff? Scott Arniel should be safe as he doesn’t have much to work with.

It’s fair to say that Winnipeg’s drafting and development hasn’t been great as of late.  Part of that is not having some of their better picks as a result of making win-now trades.  Losing a first-round pick to retirement at 21 due to a hereditary tissue disorder was something out of their control.  But, in general, if you look at their draft history (HockeyDB has a quick snapshot), the results aren’t pretty.  And the end result is a system that’s certainly toward the bottom of the league.

As to whether an overhaul is needed, that’s a little harder to answer.  We know the Jets are one of the stricter-budget teams in the league and their scouting group is on the smaller side.  So is their player development group.  Is this a case of simply needing more eyes that could aid on the drafting side and a bigger development team to help those prospects?  It’s definitely possible.  I’d like to think that could fix at least some of the problem without overhauling things.

I think the only way that an overhaul would be considered is if ownership decided that the current core has gone as far as they can and that it’s time to commit to a multi-year rebuild.  At that time, maybe you bring in some new decision makers in management and scouting.  I’m not sure the market could survive any sort of extended rebuild from an attendance and revenue standpoint and the fact they’ve re-signed all the veteran players they have suggests that’s not even being considered.  So, for now, the more realistic hope would be that the front office gets a bigger budget to work with to rectify some of the drafting and development issues and hope that over time, that gets things back in the right direction.

GBear: The Mammoth seem to be a legit threat to make the playoffs, what move(s) do you foresee them making near the trade deadline? I’ll hang up and listen for the answer. ☎️

I’ll start with a question of my own.  Where does GM Bill Armstrong feel his team is within the rebuilding cycle?  Are they in the ‘happy to be here’ phase or aiming higher?  The answer to that dictates the answer to your question.

I have them in the former.  They’re not a top-three team in the loaded Central Division and I don’t think they beat Vegas or Edmonton if they wind up crossing over.  I suspect Armstrong feels the same way so it’s probably not the time to swing big.

However, he should also want to reward his roster with some reinforcements, albeit more of the depth variety.  An upgrade over Nick DeSimone and Olli Maatta is a small move that can give the back end a bit of help.  There should be several of those players on the move that would only cost the Mammoth one of their previously-acquired selections.  Up front, getting Logan Cooley back should be enough of an upgrade down the middle so I’d look at the wing.  Someone like Michael Bunting makes a lot of sense.  With the right fit, he can play basically on any line, allowing them to deepen the lineup.  He plays with some jam which should appeal to Andre Tourigny.  And he’s only 30; it’s plausible that they’d want to give him a multi-year deal if things went well so he feels like a fit on that front as well.  And, again, their surplus picks should cover a big chunk of the acquisition cost.

Even if they wind up shoring up their group for an early playoff exit, a team can learn a lot from that short series by getting that taste.  That’s worth using some assets to try to help solidify while also being restrained knowing that the bigger moves (that we know Armstrong will sniff around on) will likely come in the offseason.

Unclemike1526: With Frondell and Kantserov coming late this year in all likelihood, and Murphy and maybe Dickinson too being moved, Name the one guy (under 30) the Hawks could get in a trade that can put the puck in the net? A flat-out scorer. They need that more than anything. Frondell can take Dickinson’s spot eventually and Del Mastro can take Murphy’s; there has to be somebody out there, right? I don’t want to move Mikheyev or Grzelcyk and would rather re-sign them. Grzelcyk is solid and Mikheyev is too valuable as a PK guy. They need a scorer, right? The time for draft picks is over. Thanks.

Unfortunately, this isn’t the time of year when a lot of under-30 impact scorers tend to be moved.  But if St. Louis is ready to shake things up, making a run at Jordan Kyrou makes sense.  He’s not having a great year this season but before that, he had three straight 30-plus-goal seasons so that should fit the bill for what you’re looking for.  He’s 27 and signed for five more years after this one at $8.125MM, a price tag and term the Blackhawks can afford.  It’d take parting with a key youngster and a quality pick or prospect but if the goal is to get an upgrade to help take the next step, he might be it.  Admittedly, I’m not sure he’s a great fit with Connor Bedard but talent is talent and he’d be a big upgrade.

On a smaller scale, they’re the type of team I could see wanting to take a look at Patrik Laine.  It’s starting to sound like Montreal is willing to retain money to move him and take a negligible at best return for him to open up cap space for themselves.  Chicago has loads of cap space and a six-week flyer to see how the 27-year-old might fare with a fresh start and if he might be a short-term solution for a couple of years after this.  It runs counter to them being a seller but if the cost is next to nothing (or nothing), it’s a dart throw that might be worth making.

Daniel M: Blake Lizotte’s recent re-signing has me wondering if the Penguins have the best 4th line in the NHL right now. Their underlying numbers look really good, even though they start a ton of their shifts in the defensive zone. They contribute offensively too. What are some of the NHL’s best 4th lines?

Pittsburgh’s trio would be right up there.  They’ve really impressed and have been together enough to show that it’s not just short-term good luck.  Right now, they may very well be the best.

I pushed this question to the last mailbag so I could watch some games with this question in the back of my mind.  Two fourth lines, in particular, stood out.  One was Buffalo’s with Jordan Greenway and Beck Malenstyn being centered by Peyton Krebs.  It’s a line with a lot of size and physicality but some solid defensive play and a bit of offensive upside to go along with a cycle game.  Greenway’s continuing injury woes are certainly a concern moving forward, however.

The other one that caught my eye was Boston’s trio of Tanner Jeannot, Sean Kuraly, and Mark Kastelic.  A little penalty-prone, sure, but that’s an energy line with some defensive acumen, a bit of offensive touch, and an ability to cycle a team to death in the attacking zone.  That type of line can do some damage as the checking gets a little tighter down the stretch and into the playoffs and I could see it being more successful in the coming weeks.

One of the challenges in evaluating fourth lines is that they’re forever fluid.  It’s rare to find a combination that works for an extended period of time.  Players get hurt, shuffled in and out of the lineup, or moved up if things are going well.  Per MoneyPuck, Pittsburgh’s fourth line of Connor Dewar, Noel Acciari, and Lizotte, is the 18th-most-used line in the league.  Not just among fourth lines, that’s all lines.  That type of consistency is extremely rare for a fourth line and probably gives it a leg up on the rest overall.

Read more

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include how much (or little) the Rangers might be selling, potential defense targets for the Bruins, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag while we’ll have one more next weekend as well.

lgr34561: Hi Rangers fan here. A few things. First of all, if you were in the GMs shoes (which you would probably do a much better job than Chris Drury), what direction would you take from here as in what kind of moves would you make? Second of all, do you think that a retool is enough (like Drury says) to put this team back into contention or is he just sugarcoating a long rebuild? Thank you!

Schwa: To piggyback here:

Curious if you expect any of the NMCs under contract to waive? Would you expect Drury to inquire with JT, Mika, and/or Trocheck and consider a heavier rebuild?

I imagine Trocheck would return quite a sum, given what the Canadiens gave up for Danault.

Are Mika and JT high-value given the current center market, despite the length of their contracts?

I’ve been one of those people who look at the Rangers and go ‘they can’t be that bad’.  That was me last season and heading into this year as well.  I say that because I completely get why Drury might still think that way.  With a high-end goalie, a solid group of forwards on paper, and a decent defense (when healthy), they shouldn’t be as bad as they have been.  And it’s why I believe Drury’s intention legitimately is a short-term retool and not an actual rebuild.

I don’t think they’re planning to blow up the core.  Instead, they’ll sell a bit at the deadline, get some future assets, then try to make a trade or free agent signing over the summer to get themselves back into the Wild Card picture at the very least.  It can be done and done with some success as long as they realize that success isn’t going to be defined by a long playoff run but simply by getting back to the playoffs and ideally getting some shine back from a reputational standpoint.

To move quickly to the second question for a moment, I don’t expect the other veterans with trade protection to be in play.  At most, maybe one if a team ponies up a better-than-expected return that Drury can’t refuse.  I think it’s going to be more like move Artemi Panarin, see if there’s a lateral swap for Alexis Lafreniere, maybe look at a move on the back end, and call it a day.  That’s based on my assumption that they’re still eyeing a playoff spot next season so they’re not going to want to give up a lot of talent.

Given how few sellers there are and the fact that a lot of the veteran Rangers could fill positions of need on other teams (particularly given the need for impact centers), I think New York could get big returns for several of their veterans.  Knowing that, I might be more inclined to do more of a multi-year rebuild, assuming that the veterans would waive their trade protection.  But, again, I think the plan is something pretty quick that technically doesn’t fill the definition of a rebuild.

Bigalval: I think the Kings need a full rebuild and changes on the administrative side also. Luc, Holland, and Hiller should all be fired. The game has passed Holland by; he had a brutal start when becoming the Kings’ general manager. Luc also has no clue and Hiller doesn’t know how to fix things. It was a horrible decision to let him coach this year. He should be fired soon, even with a rebuild. It’s probably gonna take four or five years to fix this mess. Thoughts?

Fundamentally, I agree that a shakeup is needed.  I had Jim Hiller being the first coach fired a while back, something that’s clearly not happening since Columbus wound up being the first team to pull the trigger on that front.  I’m not a big fan of speculating about people getting fired but that’s a card that still could get played at this point.

Given that Ken Holland is in his first season with the team, I don’t think he realistically would be in jeopardy of losing his job.  General managers tend to get a relatively long shelf life and while Holland is closer to the end of his career than the beginning (or even the middle), he probably gets a couple more years in some role.

Then we come to Luc Robitaille, who has been in this role since 2007.  He was a Hall of Fame player with his best days coming with the Kings, who have won two Stanley Cups with him in that role.  That’s a hard person to let go, even if I agree that a change of direction and vision might ultimately be beneficial in the long run.  Unless ownership decides they want to overhaul things, I’m not sure we’re at that point yet.  And even if we were, it might very well be Holland who would take over.

Personally, I’d like to see what this group can do with a new coach and a vision of trying to add some skill and speed to the lineup.  This is a playoff-caliber team, albeit more of a Wild Card team than a true contender.  But an influx of some skill and a more aggressive offensive style might get them going.  If that doesn’t happen, then using Anze Kopitar’s retirement as a springboard into a rebuild makes some sense.  If this core has gone as far as it can, then a step back to take two steps forward might not be the worst idea.  I’m not sure that will happen with the current administration in place, however.

rayk: Which pending UFA among Dickinson, Mikheyev, and Murphy has the most deadline trade value and which the least, assuming salary retention for all three?

Let’s start with Jason Dickinson ($2.125MM with maximum retention).  As expected, his breakout showing in his first couple of seasons in Chicago that showed signs of being unsustainable proved to be unsustainable.  Nonetheless, he’s a solid checking forward who can kill penalties and, perhaps most importantly, play center.  Center depth is always in high demand at this time of year and Dickinson’s physicality lends itself well to playoff-type hockey.  I expect he’ll get a lot of interest.

Ilya Mikheyev ($2.02MM with max retention) is having the best offensive season of the three and has also had some success killing penalties, particularly this season.  I think his value now is higher than it was when Chicago was paid to take on his contract but his history suggests he won’t be as successful in the limited role he’d have with a contender.  Where Dickinson is in the same type of role he’d have on a new team (just a little ice time), Mikheyev would be in line for a bigger drop so there are more question marks as to how impactful he’d be.  He’s someone I could see teams viewing as an option further down their list but I don’t think he’ll be as sought after.

Connor Murphy ($2.2MM with full retention) isn’t having a good year.  His best days are behind him but if you’re a playoff team looking for defensive depth, what are you typically looking for?  Good size, experience, penalty killing abilities, good shot blocker, and being right-handed is a bonus.  Technically, Murphy checks them all.  I don’t see a contending team wanting him to be more than a number six but I expect several teams will want him for that role if the Blackhawks are eating half of the remaining contract.

In terms of who’d get the biggest return, I’d go with Dickinson, then Murphy, then Mikheyev.  (I like Mikheyev but his profile is not the type that contenders typically seek out at this time of year.)  One thing worth noting, while this scenario had Chicago retaining on all three, they only have two retention slots available since one is being used on Seth Jones.

Black Ace57: Is it finally time for the Flyers to follow the Rangers’ lead and give up on this season and sell at the deadline?

To add onto this, why not do what the Flyers did in the past with trades like the Carter and Richards ones and at least try to shake things up without strictly buying or selling? Examples I’m thinking of are Wright with the Kraken or Power with the Sabres as targets.

Going into today’s action, the Flyers are eight points out of a top-three seed in the Metropolitan Division and ten points out in the Wild Card chase.  They have at least one game in hand on the teams holding those last playoff spots as well.  That’s not an insurmountable gap.  But it’s an improbable one.  And realistically, if they got to the postseason, I don’t think they’d be a tough out.  So yes, I’d say they should be in sell mode.

You note the old Jeff Carter and Mike Richards trades from a while back as a way to possibly reshape the roster without being a true seller.  But those players were impact centers with strong track records of winning hockey.  Who on Philadelphia’s roster has that type of history and reputation?  Travis Konecny is a nice player, a legitimate top-line winger.  Maybe he’s in that territory but swapping out your leading scorer for the sake of a change carries some big risks.  Owen Tippett feels like a potential change-of-scenery candidate so maybe there’s an option there but he’s not at the level of Carter and Richards and they may not be selling at the peak of his value.

The problem with saying they should be sellers is that they don’t have a lot to realistically sell.  Their pending UFAs are depth pieces that wouldn’t yield a return of consequence.  Rasmus Ristolainen can’t stay healthy which hurts his market.  I expect they’ll try to sign Trevor Zegras to a long-term pact.  They’re not moving Christian Dvorak after extending him while Sean Couturier’s contract takes him off the table.  On defense, Travis Sanheim isn’t moving, Cameron York probably isn’t in play, nor is Jamie Drysdale who they still have hopes for.

Maybe Bobby Brink is an option if the Flyers aren’t thrilled about what his next contract with arbitration rights might cost.  I could see Nick Seeler attracting some interest; he might be their best trade chip.  And while Samuel Ersson might be in play, how much value does he have in a down year?  So yes, while selling makes sense in theory, Philadelphia might not have much to sell.

sovietcanuckistanian: By all accounts, the Bruins made a legit effort/offer for Rasmus Andersson. I get that didn’t get him (he wanted LV and I guess Calgary took a better deal since he hasn’t signed an extension yet), but he clearly filled a glaring need. Who do they pivot to in terms of finding someone to fill that hole – given that their internal options aren’t cutting it at the moment?

The next most prominent right-shot defender in play is Dougie Hamilton.  I think it’s safe to say that option isn’t on the table.  Assuming they’re looking for someone who has some of Andersson’s attributes and isn’t a rental player, the next best option to look at might be Blues blueliner Justin Faulk.

He’s someone who would give them some secondary offense behind Charlie McAvoy while he’s still enough of a minutes-eater to easily slot into a top-four role.  While he’s not a defensive anchor, he’s still a capable penalty killer.  And with one year left after this on his contract, he’s not a pure rental either which might be appealing to GM Don Sweeney.  The $6.5MM cap charge will be a challenge to overcome though, given that it’s unlikely that St. Louis will retain on it whereas Calgary did on Andersson’s expiring deal.  But fit-wise, he’d fit the bill.

Mario Ferraro would also help and he’s easier to fit in on the cap but there’s no guarantee that he’ll move with the Sharks hanging around the playoff mix and trying to re-sign him.  Rasmus Ristolainen is also believed to be available but with his track record of injuries and Boston already having Nikita Zadorov, that might not be the best fit for them.  But overall, Faulk feels like the right fit for them if they can make the cap elements work.

Read more

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Artemi Panarin’s future which now won’t be with the Rangers, theorizing a possible Nikita Kucherov extension, and much more.  We had enough questions from our latest callout for two more columns so if your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in one of those.

12Kelly: I really think the Sabres should re-sign Tuch and continue to build this team around the core of Tuch, Thompson, Dahlin, etc. The talent is in place to be able to deal from our young players such as Ostlund, Rosen, and maybe even Power to acquire a solid secondary scorer. Thoughts?

I imagine most Buffalo fans want to see Alex Tuch re-signed to a long-term deal.  At a time when the team is trying to make the playoffs and emerge from a rebuild that has had several iterations already, losing a top-line winger is going to make that process much more difficult.  Yes, it’s going to cost a lot of money (he’s not going to be on a value contract anymore) and with the long-term extension given to Josh Doan this week, it’s not going to leave a lot for pending RFA Zach Benson, among their others who need new deals.  But this is a case of sign him and figure it out later.

While I agree philosophically that your other suggestion of moving youth for win-now help makes sense in the long haul, I’m not sure now is the right time for that.  Right now, the Sabres are doing so well that it’d be hard to mess with team chemistry.  And given how largely inexperienced they are, I’d want to see how their current core fares with the prospect of meaningful games down the stretch and possibly the playoffs.  I’d then use those evaluations to help determine how best to proceed over the summer.  By then, they’ll know what’s happening with Tuch and whether they’re needing to replace him.  Meanwhile, if they do re-sign him, they may be hard-pressed to afford another top-six piece for next season.

I want to highlight Owen Power specifically for a moment.  Yes, he’s overpaid for the role he has right now but Bowen Byram is eligible for unrestricted free agency in less than a year and a half.  If you trade Power for a scorer and then Byram goes elsewhere in 2027, now the back end is in trouble.  If they can extend Byram, then Power looks like more of a viable trade chip.  Needing to wait to do an extension (that can’t happen until this July) should take Power off the table for the time being.

vincent k. mcmahon: What are your thoughts on Steve Ott being named the HC of the Thunderbirds for the rest of the season?

Also, do you think this is a potential tryout for Ott to be the next HC if the Blues move on from Jim Montgomery? (which I don’t foresee happening but it’s not completely off the table).

I’m a little surprised it took this long for Ott to get that spot.  I thought he’d have landed it a couple of years ago when Steve Konowalchuk took over behind their bench.  By all accounts, Ott has done a very solid job behind the bench in St. Louis since ending his playing career to the point where he has been brought up as a speculative head coaching candidate off and on the last two offseasons.  This is the next logical step in his coaching career.

If things go well (it’s always a little tough with more veteran-laden teams where the floor is high but the ceiling often low) and things turn around down the stretch, Ott might get serious head coaching consideration this summer.  Realistically, it might take another year or two.  By then, we’ll know if the Blues are partway through a rebuild or if they’re still trying to win with a veteran core in which case a rookie head coach might not make the most sense for them.

That said, knowing that the shelf life of an NHL head coach is often only a few years, there’s a possibility that the window lines up for Ott and the Blues.  But I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s already behind another NHL bench by the time St. Louis ponders its next coaching change down the road.

LA All Day: I’m curious as to where the Artemi Panarin sweepstakes are at, and if the Kings are considered a frontrunner or possible landing spot here. Does Holland’s aggressive nature end up landing the Kings their much-needed scorer, or will another team end up out-bidding LA once again?

Tucsontoro1: Should the Hawks make a serious run at Panarin?

At this point, it’s too early in the process to call anyone a frontrunner for Panarin.  By all accounts, his goal was to re-sign with the Rangers.  He just wasn’t willing to take a big discount to do so but I believe his and his agent’s expectation was that eventually, something would get done.  While he didn’t say much in the aftermath of the letter that GM Chris Drury released a little more than a week ago, I think the confusion he spoke about was genuine.  To go from that to having a shortlist of teams to go to in a week seems a little too quick for me.

I don’t expect Panarin to give the Rangers a big list of teams he’d be willing to go to.  And with full trade protection, he controls the show.  I could see the list only being two or three teams deep.  Whoever those are will be the ultimate frontrunners.  It might take until after the Olympics for that list to be presented.

As for the Kings specifically, they need offense and Panarin brings a lot of it so from that standpoint, there’s a fit.  I’m not sure he necessarily fits in with the way they play but talent is talent and they need more firepower.  Sometimes, it’s best not to overthink it.  They’re also a big-market team and that mattered to Panarin in free agency.  Having said that, given their inability to get past the first round in recent years and that they continue to spin their wheels, so to speak, I’d be surprised if Los Angeles is on that shortlist.  If they are, however, they have the cap space and some younger assets that might appeal to the Rangers so they could make a real push for him.  I expect GM Ken Holland would go big on an offer, especially if it comes with a contract extension.

Chicago is an interesting idea.  Is he too old to fit in with their young core?  Probably.  But at the same time, they need a legitimate influx of firepower and for all the cap space and young assets they have, they haven’t been able to get a true top liner.  They’ve done alright with some in-between fillers (Tyler Bertuzzi, for example) but Panarin’s at another level.  But for the fit to be viable, there would have to be a contract extension as part of the swap.  Trading for Panarin as a rental isn’t a great idea for a team whose playoff aspirations aren’t the greatest.  But if Panarin is willing to return to the Blackhawks for the longer term, putting him as Connor Bedard’s winger (or anchoring a second line) would certainly help get them to the next phase in their rebuild, one that sees them legitimately battling for a playoff spot.

rayk: The NYR now have only $2.26 mill in cap space. Even at the deadline, how can they find teams Panarin okays (has NMC) that can afford him at his big salary, even with some salary retention? Most of the contenders have little cap space also, and will need the max retained.

For the Rangers, that cap space number is with Panarin on the books in full at $11.643MM.  Even if they retain the maximum of 50% of that, they’re still freeing up over $5.8MM (in full-season space) so they’re more than fine in that regard.  Now, it does limit them a bit in that they can’t take much more back in offsetting salary than what they’re freeing up but it will be more than workable for them to find a suitable trade for him.

A roughly $5.82MM price tag (with max retention) is a lot for some contenders to afford today.  But six weeks from now at the trade deadline, it’s a lot easier.  A team with around $2.5MM in space today has over $5MM at the deadline, assuming no other roster moves are made between now and then.

Looking at some playoff teams (or close enough teams) that have around $5MM in room at the deadline (per PuckPedia), I see Colorado, Anaheim, Boston, Buffalo, Minnesota, Utah, Carolina, Los Angeles, and Pittsburgh above that threshold.  Several others are already there that aren’t playoff threats at the moment but things could change between now and then.  Are all of them going to want Panarin?  Or, more specifically, how many of those will he want?  I wouldn’t be too worried about the cap element, it will be workable enough for New York to get a good return.

Specialist412: Do you think the Pens will be buyers or sellers? Dubas is real quiet right now, I wonder if he has something big up his sleeve.

Kyle Dubas has never been shy about taking swings but I think deep down, he knows this core is not good enough to be a long-term contender.  So I don’t see him being a big buyer, at a minimum.  If they’re still in the mix six weeks from now, they have extra picks in the second and third rounds for each of the next three years.  Flipping one or two of those for short-term help would make sense and could be justified within the context of not significantly affecting their long-term core or depleting their prospect pool.  I doubt they’d do more than that, though.

I think his preference would be to capitalize on a seller’s market if they’re out of the race.  The parity plays into the favor of whoever decides to sell given that there will be more buyers than sellers so there should be good returns out there, especially for someone like Rickard Rakell who it feels like has been in trade speculation for years now.  But the fact they’re in the race will cause them to push pause for the time being and assess things coming out of the Olympic break.

Read more

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include which of Seattle’s pending UFAs could be on the move, if some Chicago prospects could join the team this season, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbag columns.

yeasties: The Kraken appear to be positioned well to be a deadline seller. Assuming they sputter out and become sellers, which of their pending UFAs do you think will be dealt and who will be kept and extended?

For those who aren’t too familiar with Seattle’s pending UFA list, it’s quite a big one, even after they moved Mason Marchment to Columbus on Friday before the roster freeze.  Up front, they have Jaden Schwartz, Jordan Eberle, and Eeli Tolvanen all set to hit the market in July.  They also have Jamie Oleksiak on the back end and since goaltender Matt Murray has been in the NHL all season, I’ll give him a mention here as well although I wouldn’t be shocked if he doesn’t get re-signed or traded by the early-March trade deadline.

Oleksiak is the one I’m most confident in saying will be moved.  His role on the depth chart has been reduced and it’s hard to imagine they’ll want to sign him to another multi-year deal around this price point.  On the other hand, teams want big defensemen with some snarl at the deadline and Oleksiak provides that.  Despite being in the midst of a down year, I expect they’ll get a strong market for his services.

Up front, I’d put Schwartz as the most likely to be dealt.  He has had some good moments when healthy (including this season) but he can’t stay healthy.  However, with salary retention, some contender will want him as a middle-six upgrade to bolster their offensive depth and maybe play on the power play.  On the flip side, I think Eberle stays.  Yes, he could go be a middle-six player somewhere but I think they’ll want to keep him around, assuming a reasonable extension could be worked out.

I could see Seattle taking a run at re-signing Tolvanen.  He isn’t having a great year so maybe they look to try to get him at a lower-market rate.  Failing that, he still has enough of a track record that there should be some teams that like him as more of a depth addition.

frozenaquatic: I hear a lot about prospect development with how bad the team I root for (the Rangers) is at it. I had heard that Tanner Glass and Jed Ortmeyer, two plugs, were in charge of “player development,” but saw some folks talking about how that just meant they were in charge of making sure prospects had proper housing and resources to financial management and things like that, and that they weren’t really coaches. I always hear the refrain that the “NHL isn’t a development league” in the sense that coaches aren’t expected to coddle young players (unless they’re in a full rebuild).

My question is: if a team has “bad player development,” is that more on the Department of Player Development, the scouts, the AHL coaches? Maybe even the skills coach? Let’s say, for instance, the Rangers wanted to get better at “player development” overall. Would that be an overhaul of the scouting department to look for different baseline skills in players? Or something else? I’m thinking of how Laf, Kakko, Kravtsov, Andersson, etc all panned out–is that just horrible scouting, terrible luck, or the mysterious player development?

In recent years, it feels like a lot of teams are adding Player Development coaches.  But most of the time, those are recently retired players.  It feels like these positions are created to give them a chance to see if a coaching position is something they might be interested in.  Meanwhile, they get to relay some pointers to the prospects and help them along.  From a starting point, that’s not a bad thing to have and it does allow those former players to slowly improve those coaching skills.  Ideally, you might want to have someone (or more) who can work on more specialized training for each player to maximize those efforts but Glass and Ortmeyer can certainly be part of a quality department.

As for where the blame might lie when it comes to a lack of proper player development, there’s plenty to go around.  The scouts may have misread the projectability of certain skills although I won’t critique them for the first two on that list as they were largely consensus picks at where they were selected.  Did the Player Development department work enough with the players?  I’d lump the skills coaches into that area in terms of coming up with the proper training regimens.  Then you have the coaching staffs at both the AHL and NHL levels.  Yes, the NHL is not a development league in theory but the reality is, a lot of development does happen at the top level.  Some of it also has to fall on the players.  Some train better than others over the offseason, some are more dedicated to the finer points of development.  I’m speaking generally here, not talking specifically about any of the players you listed.

There’s no simple fix or overhaul here.  Scouts can be evaluated based on their reports; did those players progress over time?  Keep the best ones and if there are some who haven’t been as strong, then you could look to make a change.  The same goes in the development department (more teams seem to be drifting toward adding more people rather than changing some) and with the coaching staffs although they have to balance winning and development at the same time.  In a perfect world, it’s probably a slow build over making a bunch of changes all at once.

Unclemike1526: Do you know when the KHL and SHL seasons end? Frondell will definitely be here after that and depending on whether the Hawks still have a shot at the Playoffs and could play more than 10 games and burn his 1st year of his ELC. Kantserov is not eligible for an ELC but hopefully comes over here and could help also. I doubt the Hawks will let Frondell play more than 10 games if they’re out of it entirely. They could use his size either on the wing or even at C. What do you think?

The KHL regular season ends on March 20th while the SHL ends on March 14th.  Also worth noting, last year, the KHL playoffs ended on May 21st and the SHL ended on May 1st.

Chicago has fallen off a bit since the callout for questions and are now hovering near the bottom of the league and don’t have Connor Bedard.  As things stand, I don’t think the playoffs are a realistic possibility.  However, there’s an outside shot that Anton Frondell could get in a game or two depending on how Djurgardens fares in the playoffs.  There probably won’t be more than ten games left by then so they’re not at risk of burning a year of his entry-level deal.

Roman Kantersov is actually eligible for an entry-level contract as he’s only 21.  It will just be a two-year pact instead of three.  But it might not matter anyway as Magnitogorsk is the top team in the league and likely heading for a long playoff run.  If they went out early enough, it’s possible they’d sign him and burn a year now.  They wouldn’t want to do that but that might be needed to convince him to sign, knowing he could exit the entry-level restrictions a year earlier.  I wouldn’t expect that to come into play but we’ll see what happens in the playoffs.

tucsontoro: Brian – we’re already hearing lots of chatter on who might be on the move. What do you consider the worst contracts in the league right now?

I don’t think the players on the worst contracts in the league are probably going to be on the move but let’s go over some of the bad ones.

Jonathan Huberdeau’s contract with Calgary has to be here.  Don’t get me wrong, I didn’t hate the trade for the Flames at the time it was made.  Getting what we thought was still a top-line winger and a strong defenseman wasn’t a bad return for Matthew Tkachuk.  Of course, Huberdeau is being paid like his best year with Florida while producing about half of the points, making it a well-above-market deal.  There’s a temptation to put Elias Pettersson here on the first year of his new contract but let’s let the season play out and see how he fares as the undisputed top player in Vancouver now.

On the back end, Darnell Nurse is being paid as an elite two-way defender.  He hasn’t been that.  Offensively, he’s more of a third option with them needing to pay to bring in Jake Walman to pick up some of the secondary slack since Nurse wasn’t producing.  Defensively, elite is not the word I would use.  He’s a serviceable top-four defender, sure, but not a number one like he’s being paid as.  On the lower end of the scale, Ryan Graves started the season in the minors after clearing waivers and is now a sixth or seventh option on most nights.  He still has three years left at $4.5MM and even if the Penguins retained the maximum 50%, there still wouldn’t be a trade market for him.

Now, since you referenced this question after mentioning chatter about players who could be on the move, I wanted to think of some bad contracts that could be dealt.  One that comes to mind is Barclay Goodrow.  He’s on an expiring deal at $3.64MM and is a fourth liner.  However, he’s the type of gritty role player some teams will covet and if there’s one with a lot of cap space, I could see him moving.  I’m also wondering about Patrik Laine ($8.7MM, pending UFA) in Montreal.  Since they’ve gone and added Alexandre Texier and Phillip Danault, is there a spot for him when the team is fully healthy?  If not, it wouldn’t shock me to see them try to move him with half retention to give him a chance to play down the stretch and help his case in free agency.  The return would be minimal but after blowing through their remaining room to add Danault, clearing half of Laine’s deal would give them some extra flexibility.

Emoney123: What’s the next move for Danny Briere? Seems Martone, Nesbitt, Luchanko, Bump, Barkey, and Bjarnason are a few years away and with only their own #1 pick this year, how does Briere keep the Flyers in the playoff hunt? Seen this before with big crash and burn late in the second half of the season. Rick Tocchet for Coach of the Year if the Flyers make playoffs?

Right now, the next move is likely patience.  At the moment, Philadelphia is right in the thick of the playoff race, one that no one seems to be making a push to run away with.  It’s great that they’re in it right now but will they still be in the hunt at the Olympic break?  I think that’s going to be the decision point for a lot of teams as to whether to buy, sell, or largely stand pat and the Flyers should be one of those.

If I’m being honest, I’m not sold on them being a viable playoff threat.  A bunch of overtime games have kept them in the mix which is fine but not necessarily sustainable over the course of a full season.  Accordingly, my inclination is that they largely hold or sell a bit, depending on if they can get Christian Dvorak signed to a contract extension or not in the new year.

That said, you asked me about a playoff scenario so there are two buying scenarios I can think of.  One I’ve written about in an older mailbag column and that’s one that sees them buying low on someone who could be around beyond the season.  In other words, another Trevor Zegras type of move where you’re hoping a change of scenery gets them going while knowing that a futures payment is justifiable given that the player isn’t a rental.  That’s still on the table.

The other one is where they’re a soft buyer and basically tell teams that they’ll take a contract off their hands.  With double retention off the table now, other buyers will need to move some bodies out to make the money work for other trades.  This is a good spot for GM Daniel Briere to tell teams that they can facilitate one of those moves by taking an expiring contract back.  Ideally, the player is a forward with a bit of offensive upside.  Frankly, the Laine scenario I mentioned above feels like something worthwhile doing in this instance, flipping a minor leaguer or futures in return.  It’s something that doesn’t jeopardize the future and sends a message to the players that they’re not giving up.  It’s not the route I’d probably go but if they’re buying, I think it’s going to be low-cost acquisitions that don’t jeopardize the future.

Read more