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The Salary Cap Implications Of A Shea Weber Early Retirement

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When Shea Weber signed a 14-year, $110MM offer sheet from the Philadelphia Flyers in 2012, everyone knew right away that it would end badly. Yes, Weber was 27 years old and one of the top defensemen in the league, but the contract was top-heavy and carried a $7.86MM cap hit through his age-40 season. The chances of him playing to a level matching that value over a full 14 years was very slim. The Flyers knew this and specifically structured it in a way that they hoped would scare the Nashville Predators and frugal GM David Poile away – it didn’t. The Predators had just watched Ryan Suter walk in free agency and couldn’t afford to let Weber leave as well. They matched the deal and held on to their superstar defenseman.

When Weber was then traded to the Montreal Canadiens for P.K. Subban in 2016, the risk in Weber’s contract increased exponentially. The league had since banned all similarly long-term contracts – setting a limit of seven years on the open market and eight years for an extension –  nevertheless the front-loaded, cap-circumventing type that Weber had signed. To combat teams continuing to front-load contracts, the NHL implemented salary cap recapture penalties. This system punishes teams for lengthening contracts with low-salary seasons in order to lower the cap hit during prime years by issuing a salary cap charge if the player retires prior to the end of the contract, thereby negating the years that lowered his cap hit. The calculation is the difference in total salary and total cap hit over the course of the contract with which the player played with the team, divided by the number of years remaining on the contract after retirement. In Weber’s case, the scenario looks like this:

Year           Team           Cap Hit           Salary           Difference
2012-13        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2013-14        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2014-15        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2015-16        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2016-17        MTL             $7.857MM        $12MM           $4.143MM
2017-18        MTL             $7.857MM        $12MM           $4.143MM
2018-19        MTL             $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2019-20       MTL*           $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2020-21       MTL*           $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2021-22       MTL*           $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2022-23       MTL*           $7.857MM        $3MM          -$4.857MM
2023-24       MTL*           $7.857MM        $1MM          -$6.857MM
2024-25       MTL*           $7.857MM        $1MM          -$6.857MM
2025-26       MTL*           $7.857MM        $1MM          -$6.857MM

So far over the course of Weber’s contract, both Nashville and Montreal have paid him far beyond what his cap hit would suggest. If Weber was to retire today, they would both be penalized. Nashville’s total penalty is $24.572MM, while Montreal’s is fluid. However, next season marks a drop for Weber below his cap number for the remaining eight years of his contract. Now, Weber is not going to retire this off-season. However, the chances that he retires early are very high. Earlier this week, it was reported that Weber had undergone a second off-season surgery and would likely be out until mid-season. Many expected when Weber was traded to Montreal that he still had many years left of strong play in him, but it appears that the deterioration of his body has already begun. Facing a decreasing salary for the remainder of his contract and concerns about his long-term health, it would be no surprise to see Weber retire in the next two years or so nevertheless by the end of the remaining eight years. By year, here is how the penalties would play out for both Nashville and Montreal:

If Weber retires before:      Penalty per year – NSH         Penalty per year – MTL
2019-20                                          $3.51MM                                              $918K
2020-21                                          $4.1MM                                                $762K
2021-22                                          $4.91MM                                              $543K
2022-23                                          $6.14MM                                             $215K
2023-24                                           $8.19MM                                             None
2024-25                                           $12.29MM                                           None
2025-26                                           $24.57MM                                           None

Obviously, the Predators have a lot to lose if Weber retires early. It is very unlikely that Weber, if he makes it that far, is likely to retire with one or even two years left on his contract. At that point, it is likely the Canadiens would just place him on long-term injured reserve to finish his career, as has become a growing trend in the NHL. However, if Weber is unable to get over the injuries that have plagued him in Montreal, could he call it quits within the next few years and stick Nashville with a $3.5-$5MM yearly penalty? Absolutely. It is a scary possibility for the Predators and a situation worth watching as Weber battles back from injury yet again next season and beyond.

All salary and cap figures are approximations. Data courtesy of CapFriendly.com.

NHL Warns Marchand, Bruins About Licking Players

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The NHL’s vice president of hockey operations Colin Campbell spoke to both the Boston Bruins general manager Don Sweeney and Brad Marchand today, warning the veteran forward that his actions of licking players is unacceptable and another incident like that will result in supplementary discipline, according to the NHL.

Marchand, who has been accused for licking a player for the second time in the Stanley Cup playoffs this year, was seen checking Tampa Bay’s Ryan Callahan into the boards and when Callahan shoved back, Marchand responded by licking him. He was accused of the same thing in the first round of the playoffs during Game 1 by the Toronto Maple Leafs’ Leo Komarov. Marchand was not penalized for either incident, but the league is stepping in now.

According to Rule 75.4 (iii), “Any player who persists in any course of conduct designed to incite an opponent into incurring a penalty,” which means the league could start handing out 10-minute misconduct penalties immediately for any similar actions, according to TSN’s Frank Seravalli.

“There’s absolutely no place in this game for that,” Tampa Bay head coach Jon Cooper said (via Joe Smith). “I don’t understand it.”

Even Boston coach Bruce Cassidy said Marchand needs to stop.

“Brad has to stop licking. That’s the end of the story,” said Cassidy (via Chris Johnston).

NHL Announces Lady Byng Trophy Finalists

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The Lady Byng Memorial Trophy often doesn’t get the credit it deserves, but in 2018 the high-profile nominees should turn some heads. The three finalists, as voted by the Professional Hockey Writers’ Association, were announced by the league tonight as the Florida Panthers’ Aleksander Barkov, the Vegas Golden Knights’ William Karlsson, and the Buffalo Sabres’ Ryan O’Reilly. Whoever of the three is judged to have “exhibited the best type of sportsmanship and gentlemanly conduct combined with a high standard of playing ability” will take home the hardware at the NHL Awards in June.

In many ways, this Lady Byng race is almost a runner-up competition to the Selke Trophy. All three of Barkov, Karlsson, and O’Reilly could have been a finalist for the best defensive player award this season. Barkov is a two-way wizard, Karlsson led the NHL in plus/minus, and O’Reilly continues to be one of the best face-off specialists of his generation. There was no lack of offense either, as Barkov and Karlsson each set career-highs with 78 points, while O’Reilly notched his fifth-straight season of 55+ points. However, they all have shown an adept ability to avoid penalties as well – a major criteria for the Lady Byng. O’Reilly in particular was a shockingly clean competitor in 2017-18, taking just one two-minute minor penalty in 81 games for an average of just one second worth of penalty minutes per game. This was far and away the most impressive mark on the year. Karlsson played in all 82 games, accumulating only six minor penalties for 12 PIM. Barkov was guilty of just seven minors, a total of 14 minutes in the box, all season.

The gentlemanly conduct is apparent among the finalists, as is the high standard of ability at both ends of the rink. All three played nearly game this season as well, showing the most important ability of all – availability. So what could decide the race? Sportsmanship, which is where O’Reilly’s recent remarks could hurt him. The Sabres center recently went on record as saying that he has lost his love for the game while playing in Buffalo. Compare that attitude to those of Karlsson, arguably the best skater on the team who has been the biggest story in hockey in their inaugural season, and Barkov, who has grown into a leader in Florida and led his team to an unlikely late-season surge, and you can see how O’Reilly could lose some votes. We’ll know for sure how it turns out at the NHL Awards on June 20th in Karlsson’s new home town.

Snapshots: Coaching Changes, Marchand Fine, McDonagh Debut

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Buried in the news of Ron Francis being replaced as GM of the Carolina Hurricanes was the fact that it was the first major personnel decision of the 2017-18 season. It’s March, well beyond the three-quarter mark of the season, and there has been just one general manager fired (but promoted) and still no coaches. It’s rare to see so much inactivity, but it can likely be linked to the fact that the league’s worst teams – Arizona, Buffalo, Ottawa, Vancouver, and Montreal – all have first- or second-year coaches: Rick Tocchet, Phil Housley, Guy Boucher, Travis Green, and Claude Julien respectively. Unsurprisingly, USA Today’s Kevin Allen lists the head coaches of four of the next five worst teams as being on the hot seat as the end of the season approaches. That includes the Edmonton Oilers’ Todd McLellan, the Detroit Red Wings’ Jeff Blashill, the New York Rangers’ Alain Vigneault, the Chicago Blackhawks’ Joel Quenneville, and the Carolina Hurricanes’ Bill Peters. The most obvious inclusion on this list is Peters, who has an owner looking to make changes and soon a new GM, and has also struggled to get the most out of his talented roster. Quenneville would be the biggest news, should he be removed, as the longest-tenured coach in the NHL, since 2008, and a three-time Stanley Cup champion. The last name on the list who doesn’t quite fit the pattern is the Washington Capitals’ Barry Trotz. Trotz has yet to be offered a contract extension and his future could depend on the Caps’ playoff success this season. However, as Allen states, Trotz would be the prime coaching candidate this summer if he isn’t retained by Washington. As of right now, all of these coaches are safe, but things could change quickly with the season coming to a close. In the meantime, if you would like to apply for the open Hurricanes GM position, here you go.

  • One thing that there has been plenty of in the league this season has been punishment handed down by the NHL Department of Player Safety, as the league has focused on cracking down on certain penalties. A player who has gained plenty of attention, fair or not, has been Boston Bruins forward Brad Marchand. Marchand has finally spoken out after his most recent hit, a $2,000 fine for diving. Marchand spoke to the media, saying things like “it’s a small amount of money”, “it’s a joke”, “it’s pretty stupid” and “I don’t care about this.” He did go a step further though, adding “how are they (Player Safety) to tell …they go from being players to management and running the league pretty quickly and forget how to play the game.” While Marchand doesn’t seem to care much about a very minor fine, he is making a point that any fine for diving, the most subjective call in the game, is somewhat unreasonable, especially when the call comes from those who were not even present at the game.
  • While the Bruins are continuing to win behind three straight game-winners from Marchand, their rivals in the Atlantic Division and the President’s Trophy race, the Tampa Bay Lightning, continue to win as well. They’ll get even better starting tonight, as their huge trade deadline acquisition, Ryan McDonagh, is set to make his debut with the team tonight against the Montreal Canadiens. Head coach Jon Cooper told beat writer Bryan Burns that McDonagh is ready to go, after dealing with an upper-body injury for more than a month. McDonagh’s addition to the Bolts blue line makes them a scary team for anyone to go up against and that includes the Bruins, who play Tampa three more times this season and could very well meet them in the second round of the playoffs.

Super Bowl Preview: NHL Edition

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In the biggest sporting event of the year tomorrow, the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles will square off in Super Bowl LII in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Patriots are five-time Super Bowl winners, including two of the past three, while the Eagles are looking for their first ever title in the Super Bowl era. The teams and their histories could not be more different. The same cannot be said for their NHL counterparts, the Boston Bruins and Philadelphia Flyers, who have been rivals from as far back as when they were called the Boston Patriots in the AFL. So, while everyone else debates the ins and outs of the big game tomorrow, let’s take a look at the likely winner through the lens of the Pats’ and Eagles’ hockey-playing neighbors:

Scoring Offense – Advantage: Boston

When it comes to scoring, the Bruins are as dangerous as the Patriots. Boston has 160 goals for on the year, 8th in the league, but in only 49 games, giving them the 5th-best 3.27 goals per game rate. Led by Brad Marchand, who’s scoring .55 goals per game on his own this season, and his line mates Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak, who make up the league’s most dangerous line, the Bruins have great offensive potential. The Flyers meanwhile are just 18th in the league in scoring, with 147 goals, and putting up only 2.88 goals per game. However, Jakub Voracek and Claude Giroux are the two highest scoring players in the match-up, so don’t underestimate Philadelphia’s offensive potential.

Scoring Defense – Advantage: Boston

There’s no better team in the league at preventing goals than the Bruins, who are number one in goals against (120) and goals against per game (2.45). With Tuukka Rask playing Vezina-level hockey and Marchand, Bergeron, and 40-year-old Zdeno Chara (channeling his inner Tom Brady) among the top ten in the league in plus/minus, the Bruins are a force to reckon with on defense. The Flyers have struggled on defense in 2017-18, allowing 150 goals, tied for 19th in goals against. While the defense has been leaky at times, much of the fault lies with the underwhelming goalie duo of Brian Elliott and Michal Neuvirth. 

Passing Offense – Advantage: Boston

Passing will be a vital factor in the big game, and the Bruins hold a slight edge. The Bruins have 271 assists on the year compared to the Flyers’ 264. While Voracek is undoubtedly the best passer in the contest, with 50 assists already on the year, Boston’s overall puck movement game is superior, due in no small part to sleek passers on the blue line in Charlie McAvoy and Torey Krug, and several of the best possession players in the league, including the top Corsi player so far in 2017-18, rookie rearguard Matt Grzelcyk. 

Turnovers – Advantage: Boston

Turnovers can make or break a game and while both teams are in the red in turnover margin, the totals are not even close. The Bruins have recorded 442 takeaways so far this season, among the best in the league. However, they do give up the puck a fair amount with 465 recorded giveaways, producing a turnover margin of -23. Fortunately for Boston, the Flyers have given up the puck 462 times themselves, but have had no luck at all in taking it back, with only 302 recorded takeaways. That produces an ugly turnover margin of -160 and another big advantage for Boston.

Special Teams – Advantage: Boston

The Bruins’ 7th-ranked power play (21.71%) and 5th-ranked penalty kill (83.33%) make them one of, if not the best special teams squad in the NHL. They capitalize on the opposition’s penalties, but don’t let their own penalties cost them. That will be especially helpful against Philadelphia, who takes fewer penalties per game than Boston and is just behind the B’s in power play efficiency; their 21.39% success rate is good enough for 8th. However, Philly has struggled greatly short-handed, with the league’s third-worst penalty kill (73.89%).

Super Bowl Prediction: New England in a landslide

It’s been a few years since the Bruins were playing at a level anywhere near the dynastic Patriots, but in 2017-18 they are right there. Compared to the Flyers in all the important (and possible to compare) football statistics, it’s not even close. If the Patriots channel the Bruins, they should roll over the Eagles like they’ve rolled over the NFL for close to 20 years. One final note: the Pats have struggled to score early and have had to come from behind in each of their last two Super Bowl wins and even their AFC Championship win two weeks ago – the Bruins have the second-best points percentage in the NHL this season when allowing the first goal. It all lines up.

 

 

 

Zac Rinaldo Declines In-Person Hearing With Department Of Player Safety

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Zac Rinaldo could be in trouble again, as the Arizona Coyotes forward was offered an in-person hearing from the Department of Player Safety after punching Colorado defenseman Samuel Girard. Rinaldo has waived his right to that in-person meeting, and will instead try to defend himself over the phone tomorrow.

Because they offered Rinaldo the meeting, the NHL reserves the right to suspend him for five or more games, which seems likely given his history. Rinaldo has already been suspended four times in the past despite playing in just 306 career NHL games. After delivering a check on Avalanche forward Nathan MacKinnon, Rinaldo grabbed Girard and threw a punch while the defenseman was looking past him. While both Erik Johnson and MacKinnon were immediately involved in altercations, their discipline will be limited to the major fighting penalties they served, and MacKinnon’s game misconduct.

Rinaldo was last suspended in March of 2016, meaning he isn’t technically a repeat offender in terms of the salary he will sacrifice if suspended. That doesn’t mean that the DoPS won’t use his past transgressions in deciding his fate, as all previous incidents are considered regardless of how long ago they took place.

Last year we saw Micheal Haley suspended one game for a similar punch, his first such discipline from the DoPS. One would imagine a regular offender like Rinaldo will face a stiffer penalty.

Brenden Dillon Suspended One Game For Slashing

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Wednesday: Dillon indeed has been suspended for one game for the slash. As the video explanation notes:

It is important to note that this is not a slash delivered as part of a hockey play. Dillon is not attempting to alert an opponent to his presence, or to make a defensive play on a player with the puck. This is simply a frustrated player delivering a retaliatory and forceful slash to a vulnerable area of an opponent’s body.

Tuesday: TSN’s Bob McKenzie predicted it this morning and now it has come to fruition: San Jose Sharks defenseman Brenden Dillon will have a hearing with the NHL Department of Player Safety this evening regarding his actions in last night’s game against the Washington Capitals. The incident is question was a slash by Dillon on the Caps’ Madison Bowey late in the contest.

With just five seconds remaining in the game, a 4-1 Washington win, Dillon hit Bowey with a two-handed slash. The action earned him a five-minute major and game misconduct – serious albeit meaningless penalties with nearly no time left. Should Dillon receive a suspension, that could very well play a role in the decision. However, the overall intensity of the game could play in his favor. It was a chippy affair throughout, including a questionable hit by Joe Thornton on T.J. Oshie and even a roughing penalty for Bowey in response to Dillon’s slash. An outburst at the end of a combative game may not be seen as an individual attack by Dillon that warrants a suspension. It also helps Dillon’s case that Patrick Kane was just recently given only a fine for a similar two-handed chop.

While the Sharks await word on whether they will lose Dillon to suspension or not, they’ll need a contingency plan. San Jose has worked hard to climb back into playoff position in the Pacific Division and don’t want to drop one or more of their upcoming games against the Carolina Hurricanes, Ottawa Senators, and Minnesota Wild because they couldn’t properly replace Dillon, given the recent injury to frequent backup Tim Heed. A strong defensive rearguard and a left shot, Dillon has been regularly skating alongside Brent Burns one the top pair this season, especially with Paul Martin sidelined. While the easy fix, should he miss time, would simply be to move Marc-Edouard Vlasic up a pair, but that could leave the bottom four too weak. Instead, moving Joakim Ryan up to the top pair and/or calling up young Jeremy Roy could be the solution.

Poll: Fairness In NHL’s Fines And Suspensions?

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In a season where penalties are down, there has been a surprising amount of newsworthy fines and suspensions early on in 2017-18. The unfortunate thing for the NHL is the only common theme between these instances of league punishment seem to be inconsistency and a lack of sense.

Three players – Steven Stamkos, Kevin Hayes, and most recently Matt Dumba – have been fined $5,000 apiece this season for water squirting. It’s not exactly a lethal offense, but is probably worthy of a minor infraction. Except, Alex Killorn received the same $5,000 fine in the same game as Stamkos’ and Hayes’ water fight for viciously jabbing Hayes until he received a slashing penalty. J.T. Brown and Steven Kampfer then riled up the benches with a long, intense fight and received no additional penalty minutes outside their matching majors and no fines. In a separate instance the other night, Patrick Kane also received a $5,000 fine. His offense: this two-handed swinging slash on Nick Ritchie which could have been much worse had it landed cleanly.

The curious thing about all of these fines is that they are the maximum under the NHL CBA. This came up earlier in the season as well, when Robert Bortuzzo’s received the max fine of just over $3,000 for pinning down and repeatedly cross-checking Brock Nelson. So in summary, water squirting has been a fine-able offense three times this season, and for the same maximum amount as slashing and more than the maximum amount for cross-checking.

Then, there are suspensions. The ten-game ban for perennial bad guy Radko Gudas was well-earned, while the ten-game suspension for leaving the bench handed out to Luke Witkowski is a tried and true policy. Yet, Witkowski was responding to this jab from Matthew Tkachuk which more or less also happened off the ice. For that offense, Tkachuk received only a one-game suspension. As minor a “spear” as it might have been, Tkachuk still made contact with a player off the ice, but the NHL thought Witkowski stepping back on the ice to have words with Tkachuk was ten times worse? Tkachuk was back in the spotlight the other night, drawing a four-game suspension for Gabriel Landeskog, who NHL Player Safety even acknowledged was not intending to hurt Tkachuk, so much as get him away from the puck.

On it’s face, the NHL’s fines and suspensions – a product of both the league and NHLPA – seem inconsistent at best. But what say you? Do you think these are isolated incidents? Or a pattern of inequitable punishment?

[Mobile users click here to vote!]

NHL Considering Changes To Minor Penalties

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All 31 NHL general managers met in Montreal on Friday for the annual GM Meetings to discuss important league policies and procedures. Despite little conversation on the topic arising beforehand, Sportsnet insiders Christ Johnston and Elliotte Friedman report that one of the major issues discussed was potential changes to minor penalties, specifically the length of certain minor penalties and the length of minor penalties in overtime.

What exactly was discussed? While the league has expressed its pleasure with the cleaner game this season as a result of tighter penalty calls, it has now come to the attention of all GM’s that perhaps not all minor penalties are worthy of the same penalty. The solution debated Friday was instituting one-minute minors. Johnston reports that two-minute minor penalties in overtime, where each and every second is amplified, are perhaps too punitive in regards to a five-minute period. A one-minute minor for all minors in OT would still allow for the drawing team to have an advantage, without eliminating the scoring chance of the penalized team for nearly half of the overtime frame. Friedman continued that besides the situational OT one-minute minors, GM’s discussed cutting a pair of controversial minor penalties in half during regular time as well. Unsurprisingly, these two penalties are delay of game and face-off violation. The delay of game penalty for putting the puck over the glass has been criticized since its inception for unduly harming a team for what is almost always a pure accident. The new face-off violation penalty has also been seen as unworthy or penalty status, though the frequency of the call has dropped off substantially from the preseason to the regular season.

A change in penalty time in the overtime period would be a novel move for the NHL; something unseen in most major sports. The change in time for specific minor penalties though would not be unlike lacrosse, in which most leagues use a wide range of different penalty lengths depending on the infraction. It is an intriguing idea that is just in its infancy, but variable minor penalty times could serve to benefit the NHL.

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