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Ducks’ Trevor Zegras Offers Lucrative Trade Value

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The 2024 summer is gearing up to be dramatic, with Vezina Trophy goaltenders and young top scorers headlining a very active trade market. The Anaheim Ducks may be positioning themselves as the team of the summer amidst it all, as star Ducks forward and former top-10 pick Trevor Zegras is once again facing trade rumors. Trade speculation is nothing new for the former USNTDP standout, who faced plenty of uncertainty entering the season – missing both training camp and preseason action while holding our for a new contract. He ultimately settled on a three-year, $17.2MM bridge contract – though Zegras would regardless end up missing most of the season with a broken ankle. He returned from an 11-week absence in March and ultimately totaled 31 games on the year, scoring just 15 points. But despite the down year, Zegras’ age, scoring upside, and cheap contract offer rare and incredibly lucrative value on the trade market.

It seems Zegras’ scoring upside has been shrouded behind a down year this season – but there’s no doubting his place among the best young scorers in the league. Zegras posted an impressive 23 goals and 61 points in 75 games as a rookie in 2021-22 – being named the runner-up to Moritz Seider’s 2022 Calder Trophy. To boot, Zegras proved consistent in his sophomore year, managing 65 points and again scoring 23 goals in 81 games. Combined with his modest scoring this year, Zegras has totaled 55 goals and 154 points across his first 211 games. That equates to a 0.72 points-per-game pace, ranking Zegras among the most potent young scorers in the game, and situating him ahead of players like Seth Jarvis, Lucas Raymond, and Cole Caufield.

And unlike many young players, Zegras offers the flexibility play both center and winger at an NHL level, with Anaheim mentioning adapting Zegras to center as a key priority in his early development and time in the AHL. He was frequently used down the middle through his first two years in the NHL – though he posted a dismal 40.6 faceoff percentage. The arrival of Leo Carlsson this season was enough to bump Zegras back to the wing, where he struggled to work off the boards in a Ducks system built more on physicality than finesse. His struggles at the faceoff dot make him a hard sale as a full-time center, though his flexibility makes him a match for even more teams.

Zegras’ reputation may be unruly, but he’s been in elite scoring talent since breaking out with the NTDP’s notorious 2019 lineup. With so much consistency between his first two seasons, it seems much more likely that his down year was more the result of a shaky start to the year, marred by prolonged contracting negotiations and injury, than it was an indication that he’s fallen off course. At a spry 23, Zegras is just kicking off his career, already carving out a consistent top-six role and strong scoring pace before many players earn a daily lineup role at all. His offensive upside has vindicated Zegras’ draft spot – as he sits fourth among the 2019 class in NHL scoring – but it also makes him substantially harder to price on the trade market. There simply aren’t previous trades situated around a player as high-scoring or young as Zegras.

It, in a way, harkens back to Larry Murphy’s move from the Los Angeles Kings to the Washington Capitals in 1983. While the swap differs in a  lot of ways – Murphy most notably being a high scoring defenseman, and a player significantly closer to the league’s greatest at the time of his move. But there are plenty of similarities as well. Murphy also carried top-10 draft pedigree, vindicated by star scoring, and was moved before his 24th birthday. In that case, the Kings received stout top-four defenseman Brian Engblom and Ken Houston as he neared retirement. Zegras’ trade rumors are occurring over four decades later – so there’s like not much to be gleaned from Murphy’s move – though precedent could suggest that the Ducks may need to settle for impactful depth in any move featuring such a young star.

The Ducks will find much more present, and realistic, guidance in the trades of Martin Necas and Nikolaj Ehlers, two other potent scorers on the trade market – though Necas, the younger of the two, is still three years Zegras’ senior. Speculation around what the pair of wingers could fetch has been all over, with Carolina rumored to be interested in top prospects, though even a swap of the pair has been mentioned as a possibility. With Zegras under contract for the next two seasons, and expiring as a restricted free agent, Anaheim has plenty of time to wait and see how the Necas and Ehlers situations pan out. Whatever deal they put together for their young star will undoubtedly be a blockbuster, bringing in the pieces to boost Anaheim into a new era – one led by Carlsson, adorned by new jerseys, and hopefully bound for the playoff consistency the Ducks were once known for.

Free Agent Focus: Minnesota Wild

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Free agency is now just a bit more than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens.  There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Wild.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Mason Shaw – Shaw made a valiant return to the lineup this season, signing a contract through the end of the season in February after recovering from the fourth ACL tear of his career. It’s become a biannual injury, with Shaw, still just 25 years old, facing it in 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2023. After having his 2022-23 campaign limited to just 59 games – his official rookie season – Shaw managed to appear in 20 games this season, recording three points and 34 penalty minutes. He also appeared in nine AHL games, recording seven points and a13 penalty minutes. Shaw is a depth forward and penalty-kill specialist, though his ability to once again battle back from injury should be enough to earn him another short-term, cheap contract – and another crack at a full year of healthy NHL play.

D Declan Chisholm – The Wild claimed Chisholm off waivers from the Winnipeg Jets in late January, and immediately slotted him in to the team’s rotation of bottom-pair defenders. Chisholm would ultimately total 29 games with the Wild, playing through his official rookie season and scoring eight points along the way. He’s filled the role of the team’s offensively-minded depth defenseman, one previously held by Calen Addison, who was traded to the San Jose Sharks in November. At 24, Chisholm doesn’t seem to be showing many signs of breakout potential, though he presents a young and cheap change-of-pace option to round out the Wild’s defense.

F Adam Beckman – The time has come for a decision on Adam Beckman, who has yet to find his stride in the NHL despite 23 career games. 11 of those games came this year, with Beckman managing two of the first three assists of his career and adding 12 penalty minutes. He’s been an effective scorer in the minor leagues, tallying 19 goals and 33 points in 51 games this year, after posting 24 goals and 36 points in 53 AHL games last year. That’s a promising pace, especially on a meager Iowa Wild offense, though there’s no telling what the path forward for Beckman may look like. His looming contract negotiations should be telling of Minnesota’s intentions with their 2019 third-round selection, as well as his chances of carving out an everyday role in the NHL next season.

Other RFAs: F Dmitry Ovchinnikov, F Adam Raska, F Sam Hentges, F Samuel Walker, D Simon Johansson, G Hunter Jones

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Dakota Mermis – Mermis was Minnesota’s de facto seventh defenseman this season, bouncing between the lineup through the early parts of the season before earning a daily depth role following Addison’s trade. He appeared in a career-high 47 games as a result, netting eight points and 33 penalty minutes.  Mermis is yet another cheap option for depth defense in Minnesota, though he faces crowded competition for minutes should he re-sign.

D Alex Goligoski – The Wild ended up turning away from Goligoski this season, as Mermis emerged as a legitimate candidate for minutes during Goligoski’s 15 game absence to a lower-body injury early in the season. The 38-year-old veteran would end up a healthy scratch for multiple games in the second half of the season, though he did still manage 10 assist in the 36 games he appeared in. It seems the curtains are beginning to draw closed on Goligoski’s 16-year career in the NHL, which featured a Stanley Cup in his rookie season of 2009 and saw him reach 1,000 games in 2022. Even if Goligoski’s intent on playing more, he’ll seemingly have to find a new home in free agency – after losing his spot with the Wild.

D Will Butcher – Minnesota acquired Butcher in January, sending AHL forwrard Maxim Cajkovic back to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Butcher has spent the last two seasons entirely in the AHL, serving out two separate league-minimum, one-year contracts and totaling a combined 59 points in 103 games. He’s a far way from his breakout 2017-18 rookie season, when he scored 44 points with the New Jersey Devils. Butcher’s his last NHL stint coming with the 2021-22 Buffalo Sabres, when he managed eight points in 37 games. He’s likely doomed for another league-minimum contract this season, and will need to fight his up from a minor league role.

Other UFAs: F Jacob Lucchini, F Turner Elson, F Steven Fogarty, F Jujhar Khaira, F Nick Swaney, G Zane McIntyre

Projected Cap Space

The Minnesota Wild can enjoy rare peace of mind this summer, facing a very minimal list of pending free agents in terms of both quantity and projected cost. The team should have plenty of room to re-sign their choice of the departing names, with $6.256MM in projected cap space. With a backlog of depth defenders and a mostly filled-out lineup, the Wild could be in a prime position to make at least one lucrative free-agent addition – likely focused on bringing a boost to the bottom-six.

Snapshots: Boucher, McDavid, Kraft Hockeyville

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Former Toronto Maple Leafs assistant coach Guy Boucher was hoping to be much more of a contender in the team’s head coaching search, shares Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman on the 32 Thoughts Podcast. Toronto parted ways with Boucher on Saturday, ending his tenure in Toronto after just one year with the team. Boucher mainly presided over Toronto’s power play, which posted a 23.95 percent success rate this season, down two percent from last year though still a top-10 unit in the league. They lost that special-teams spark in the playoffs, though, scoring on just one of the 21 power plays they received in their first-round loss to the Boston Bruins.

The Leafs were rumored to be interested in a long list of candidates for their head coaching vacancy – including Todd McLellan, Gerard Gallant, and even Rod Brind’Amour prior to his extension in Carolina. Toronto’s assistants were never among the rumored candidates, with the team even overturning Manny Malhotra, who left for an AHL head coaching role and was replaced by Lane Lambert. Boucher may need to follow in Malhotra’s path to the minor league if he’d like another head coaching role, with seemingly no vacancies in the NHL following Ryan Warsofsky’s hire in San Jose. There are currently three head coach vacancies in the AHL – with the Coachella Valley Firebirds, Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins, and Hartford Wolf Pack, though the latter could opt to promote interim head coach Steve Smtih

Other notes from around the league:

  • Edmonton Oilers superstar Connor McDavid has broken Wayne Gretzky’s record for assists in a single postseason, now at 32 after recording three assists in Game 4. McDavid and Gretzky are the only two players to record 30 assists in a single postseason, with Gretzky managing the feat in both 1985 and 1988. McDavid is now up to 38 points in 22 playoff games this year, more than any other player in NHL history save for Gretzky and Mario Lemieux – though 38 points still ranks McDavid as just the fifth-highest scoring postseason, with Gretzky breaking 40 points three separate times, including a record-holding 47 points, and Lemieux once scoring 44. Those will be the records that McDavid is chasing as he looks to will Edmonton to a Game 7 Stanley Cup.
  • The Ottawa Senators will host the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 2024 Kraft Hockeyville Preseason Game, set to take place in Elliot Lake, Ontario. Elliot Lake will also receive $250K to support arena upgrades and $10K in hockey equipment from the NHLPA Goals and Dreams fund. The matchup will bring Canadian superstars Sidney Crosby and Kris Letang to Northern Ontario, and mark Pittsburgh’s first time playing guest to the Senators since a 2-1 overtime loss in March.

Offseason Checklist: Carolina Hurricanes

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The offseason has arrived for all but the two teams who are still taking part in the playoffs.  For the rest, it’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Carolina.

For the first time in a while, the Hurricanes were aggressive making moves in-season. After largely staying quiet at the past few trade deadlines, they acquired arguably the top name on the market in forward Jake Guentzel from the Penguins – without having to give up a first-round pick. While he performed well, it didn’t get them over the playoff hump, and they were dispatched in the second round by the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Rangers. Now, they’re headed for an offseason of major turnover both on the ice and off it, thanks to a late GM change.

Jarvis Extension

The Hurricanes’ entire offseason plan seems to revolve around prioritizing a limited amount of pending free agents instead of trying to retain as many as possible. Aside from defense fixture Jaccob Slavin, who’s under contract next season anyway but is still getting an extension next month, their other priority is a new deal for pending RFA Seth Jarvis. The 2020 13th overall pick has exhausted his entry-level contract and is in line for a significant pay bump over his previous $894K cap hit.

It’s not clear whether the Canes’ front office, led by interim GM Eric Tulsky, prefers to go the bridge deal or the long-term route with Jarvis. The difference in cap hit would likely be significant. Evolving Hockey projects a $5.15MM cap hit for a two-year deal, for example, but an $8.5MM cap hit if they wanted to lock him up to a maximum eight-year deal right away.

It’ll depend on how much cap space they want to reserve for everybody else next season. They’ve got nearly $24MM to spend after signing defenseman Jalen Chatfield to a three-year, $3MM deal this week. It also looks like they’ve made their peace with letting trade Guentzel walk, as they’ve started shopping around his signing rights for a mid-round pick. But after signing Jarvis, they still need to re-sign or replace Jordan Martinook, Stefan Noesen and Teuvo Teräväinen – and that’s just among forwards. Tony DeAngelo, Brett Pesce and Brady Skjei are all headed toward the UFA market on defense, although the Hurricanes do have some young players – particularly blue liner Scott Morrow – who are ready to challenge for spots.

Still, they’ve got to get some cost certainty on Jarvis before going free-agent hunting. As much as a $3MM range in cap hit, depending on the term, would surely be the difference between them landing or not landing someone high on their wish list.

Trade Nečas

Of course, in order to re-sign Jarvis, they need to figure out a game plan for the other big-name RFA forward they’re reportedly sacrificing to make room for him. Now arbitration-eligible after completing his two-year, $6MM contract, Martin Nečas finds himself on the block after seeing an 18-point decrease this season from 2022-23’s career-high mark of 71.

And it’s a move that should happen relatively soon, hopefully making this a short-lived unchecked box for all parties involved. An amicable departure via trade is the outcome both sides still prefer, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman said earlier this month. The beginning of the Stanley Cup Final came and went without a move, as Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff suggested may have been in the works, but all indications still point toward a deal getting done before or on draft day.

The Hurricanes are expecting a rich return package, though. While he’s still 25, that may be tough to swallow for teams picking up a player who’s only truly challenged for first-line minutes at sparing moments during his seven-year, 362-game NHL career. The 2017 12th-overall pick has eclipsed the 50-point mark just twice, each coming in his last two seasons.

His back-to-back 20-goal campaigns and his ability to shift to center if needed do position his value at a bit of a high point, though. He’s still projected to garner $7.5MM annually on a seven-year extension, per Evolving Hockey. That puts him relatively in line (if not more expensive) than some other comparable top-six-caliber but inconsistent forwards on the UFA market, such as Elias Lindholm.

Refill Wing Depth

As mentioned earlier, the Canes will be dealing with some major roster turnover on offense outside of their core forward pieces via their pending UFAs. Add Nečas into the mix, and it’s clear they’ll need to make some moves to replenish their scoring depth – especially on the wings.

Pulling off a Nečas deal could potentially solve some of that problem. By all accounts, they’re looking for NHL-ready talent in return, not draft picks and prospects. The purpose of such a deal is twofold: one, helping keep their contention window alive with a similarly valued Nečas replacement, and two, making it easier to get a trade across the finish line by opening up some roster flexibility for the acquiring team.

That leaves everybody else. Of course, Martinook, Noesen and Teräväinen could still – theoretically – all be back before or after July 1, and this is no longer much of a conversation. There’s still a question to be had about who might replace Guentzel at the top of the lineup, though. Yes, the Canes finished second in the Metropolitan Division without his services aside from the last few weeks of the season. But he was a force in a Carolina sweater, racking up 25 points in 17 games to end the campaign.

It could certainly be a by-committee approach in terms of depth scoring, and Jarvis and Andrei Svechnikov would still round out a spectacular Aho-centered first line. But it does draw their secondary scoring into question, as outside of Nečas and their first line, their leading scorer from last season would be captain Jordan Staal and his 30 points. They’ll need some cost-effective, high-ceiling UFA options to help plug those holes.

Worry About The Future

It’s the last item on this list, but it’s also one they’re likely to start figuring out quickly. It appears they’ve already shifted a good portion of their attention here, reportedly agreeing in principle to an extension for Slavin. He’s not eligible to put pen to paper until July 1 with one season still left on his contract, though.

But even with the news, the Hurricanes still face a similar situation on defense in the summer of 2025 as they do now. Only Chatfield and Slavin are signed to one-way contracts for 2025-26, although Morrow will still be on his entry-level deal as a likely regular contributor. However, a replacement for the still-effective-but-aging Brent Burns will be needed, and Dmitry Orlov will also be an unrestricted free agent after next year.

Things are mostly stabilized offensively, with the brunt of the turnover expected this summer. A long-term extension for Jarvis “resets the window” for their forward corps, and no major pieces will be due for new deals within another few years.

They’ll also need to find a partner for the up-and-coming Pyotr Kochetkov in the crease. Barring a goalie trade, the Hurricanes will bring him back in tandem with established veteran Frederik Andersen next season. If both stay healthy and play to the potential they showcased this season, it’s a top-10 duo in the league. But Andersen will be 35 in October, and his injury history has given Carolina fits at inopportune times. It seems likely this will be his last season in Raleigh.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Free Agent Focus: Montreal Canadiens

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Free agency is now just a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens.  There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Canadiens.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Jesse Ylonen – Hoping to build on a solid depth scoring season in 2022-23, Ylonen failed to boost his production in any meaningful way. In fact, he took a step or two back during the 2023-24 campaign while seeing his ice time dip towards the back half of the season. Ylonen saw his point-per-game average drop from 0.43 P/G to 0.14 P/G in only one year. Luckily, this should allow Montreal to keep him close to his previous league-minimum salary of $775K in hopes that he will rebound for the 2024-25 NHL season.

D Arber Xhekaj – Not much of a point producer from the back end, Xhekaj has become a valuable presence on the Canadiens’ blue line. Over the last two years, Xhekaj has scored a total of eight goals and 23 points over 95 games while also delivering 284 hits. However, because of his physicality, Xhekaj has lost quite a few games to injury in his first two years with Montreal, and the team will be hoping he can maintain better health moving forward. He should be able to get a modest raise on his most recent salary of $828K at the NHL level this summer, as Evolving Hockey projects a 2-year, $3MM contract for Xhekaj.

D Justin Barron – Acquired in the trade that sent Artturi Lehkonen to the Colorado Avalanche during the 2022-23 NHL season, Barron could potentially be crowded out of the Canadiens defensive core this summer. Shuffled back-and-forth between Montreal and their AHL affiliate, the Laval Rocket, Barron failed to build on his production this season despite seeing his ice time increase by an average of two minutes. It’s unlikely that the Canadiens will choose not to tender Barron a contract this offseason, but he may start the season in Laval with the team already having a crowded blue line.

Other RFAs: F Lias Andersson, F Filip Cederqvist, D Mattias Norlinder

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Tanner Pearson – After suffering through injuries during the 2022-23 campaign with the Vancouver Canucks, Montreal acquired Pearson last offseason for some much-needed depth scoring. However, Pearson would have one of his worst seasons to date in northeastern Canada, scoring five goals and 13 points through 54 games this year. A few weeks ago, it was announced the Canadiens have no intentions of re-signing Pearson, confirming he will hit the open market this summer.

Other UFAs: F Colin White, D Chris Wideman, F Arnaud Durandeau, F Philippe Maillet, F Mitchell Stephens, D Brady Keeper

Projected Cap Space

Heading into the summer months, the Canadiens organization will have around $9.4MM of cap space to work with, with the ability to go 10% over the upper limit. Once the 2024-25 season starts, the team will place goaltender Carey Price on long-term injured reserve which will open up another $10.5MM to work with during the year.

Unless Montreal can somehow facilitate a trade of Price’s contract this summer, they will have a little wiggle room to add an impact piece in free agency. Defenseman Mike Matheson and forward Juraj Slafkovsky took major steps forward this past season and the organization’s prospect pool should add complimentary pieces shortly. Because of this, Montreal’s sole focus should be moving out bloated but moveable contracts in Christian Dvorak and Joel Armia to increase the organization’s cap flexibility despite Price’s massive salary.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Mapping Out The Blackhawks’ Offseason Plans

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Once again mired as one of the worst teams during the regular season in 2023-24, the Chicago Blackhawks have an interesting offseason ahead. With a major piece set in stone now that Connor Bedard has confirmed he’s the real deal, the Blackhawks have a lot of flexibility to improve the team this summer.

After failing to win back-to-back draft lotteries, Chicago will start their offseason with the second overall pick in the 2024 NHL Draft. It is common knowledge that the San Jose Sharks will select Macklin Celebrini with the first overall pick. Still, the Blackhawks will likely select defenseman Artyom Levshunov or forward Ivan Demidov with the next selection, both of which will project as elite-level players in their own right.

After the NHL Draft, the next significant date in the offseason will be July 1st. This is where Chicago can shake things up in a major way. For their roster in 2024-25, the Blackhawks have 10 forwards, four defensemen, and two goalies already signed to contracts. The team will likely re-up on most of their restricted free agents and graduate prospects to the majors, but they will have a ton of cap flexibility to fill in the other holes.

Having nearly $33MM to play with this summer, General Manager Kyle Davidson could have practically any player on the market, assuming those players would want to come to the Windy City. In fact, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman has already alluded to Chicago poking around Jake Guentzel’s camp, with the latter having roots in the American Midwest. If the Blackhawks can convince Guentzel to sign a long-term deal with the organization this summer, that would be a foundational building block to put next to Bedard for the first half of his career.

Nevertheless, even if Chicago makes serious investments this summer, they will still be hard-pressed to earn a playoff spot next year. The Central Division is still projected to be led by the Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, and Winnipeg Jets next season. Still, the Blackhawks may be able to move past the Utah Hockey Club, Minnesota Wild, and St. Louis Blues if nearly everything goes positively.

Landing a big fish or two should make the Blackhawks more competitive for the 2024-25 NHL season, and aid in developing the youngsters that now inhabit the roster. Unlike other rebuilding clubs, the presence of Bedard has allowed Chicago to accelerate their rebuild quicker than normal.

Snapshots: Byfield, Necas, Ehlers, Helenius

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The Los Angeles Kings are set to face the consequences of their drafting this summer, with each of Quinton Byfield, Arthur Kaliyev, Jordan Spence, and Alex Turcotte set to enter restricted free agency. Of the quartet, only Byfield has emerged as a legitimate NHL option, stamping that sentiment with 20 goals and 55 points in 80 games this season. Byfield held onto a role on the team’s second-line and second power-play unit, and will now be paid accordingly per John Hoven of Mayor’s Manor, who projects a $6MM cap hit and eight years of term on Byfield’s next deal.

Hoven explained that Byfield’s lack of multi-season success likely holds him from too hefty of a price tag and makes the interim cost of a bridge deal hard to gauge. The Kings are also face at least one major free agent in every year between 2026 and 2030 – and likely wouldn’t be too keen on circling back to Byfield’s negotiations on top of it. Through Hoven’s projections, Byfield would earn an admirable salary – thanks to a strong season and his 2020 second-overall selection – and gains the confidence of a long-term deal without signing into his 30s. The deal also works for the team, who have $20.2MM in projected cap space to sign 10 pending free agents this summer. Byfield earning $6MM would leave plenty of room for the Kings to re-sign strong lineup pieces like Matt Roy, Viktor Arvidsson, and Cam Talbot.

Los Angeles had to wait for Byfield’s breakout but seems to have finally situated him in a role he’s comfortable with. They’ll hope he can build on his commendable scoring on a new deal next season, though with negotiations could become complicated with no recent comparable contract for Byfield’s delayed breakout.

Other notes from around the league:

  • The Carolina Hurricanes will be looking for like-value players in their search for a Martin Necas trade, shares Chris Johnston on the Chris Johnston Show. Johnston went on to mention Winnipeg Jets forward Nikolaj Ehlers as a situation where a swap could make sense. Ehlers is in a similar situation to Necas – tentatively on the trade block after a successful season and capable of holding down a confident top-six role. Necas is a pending restricted free agent this summer, due for his first major pay raise following the end of a two-year, $6MM bridge contract. Ehlers’ already makes $6MM each season, though he’s set to enter unrestricted free agency next summer. Both players are due for lofty salaries on their next deals after each showing the potential to reach 60 or more points in one season. Johnston was hesitant to speak too confidently about a swap happening, though it could certainly make sense for a Hurricanes team in the midst of their Stanley Cup window and a Jets team still a few years away.
  • Star 2024 NHL Draft prospect Konsta Helenius expressed a desire to move to the NHL as quickly as possible in an interview with Adam Kimelman of NHL.com. Helenius told Kimelman, “I played against NHL guys. Of course it gives me confidence because I think I did a great job against them – I think I’m very closet to the NHL.” Kimelman went on to explain that Helenius is not just pushing himself to be an NHL player, but to be one of the best Finns to ever appear in the league. That kind of enthusiasm should boost the excitement around him ahead of the draft, though he’s already a top 10 pick on many public scouting boards. Regardless of where he goes, though, it seems Helenius is much more focused on seizing the opportunity of his first NHL training camp.

Oilers Open Extension Negotiations With Leon Draisaitl

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The Edmonton Oilers have a stressful summer ahead, with 12 pending free agents currently a part of their Stanley Cup run and just $10MM in projected cap space. That’s enough of a headache – but to add to it, the team will have to keep in mind the major paychecks due to their superstars over the next two summers. Both Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard will need new deals in 2025, while Connor McDavid will challenge contract records once again in 2026. Frank Seravalli of the Daily Faceoff recently joined Oilers Now with Bob Stauffer to discuss the looming payday, projecting that the trio of stars will cost a total of $40MM when all is said and done. Seravalli broke that down to $16MM going to McDavid, $14MM going to Draisaitl, and $10MM going to Bouchard.

Seravalli went on to discuss Draisaitl’s looming negotiations in-depth, sharing that the star German forward is interested in signing a long-term deal near the league maximum – as opposed to a short-term and relatively cheaper deal like Auston Matthews’ four-year, $53MM contract. At 28, a long-term deal would take Draisaitl through the majority of his remaining career and cement his place as career batterymate of McDavid. Seravalli believes the Oilers have already opened discussions of an extension with Draisaitl’s camp, as they look to both lock up their core and chip into their looming bills as quickly as possible.

Should these projections hold true, the Oilers would need to ensure they had $24MM to go to Draisaitl and Bouchard next summer. The league salary cap is projected to reach $92MM ahead of the 2025-26 season, per CapFriendly, after seeing a record-tying $4.5MM increase to $88MM this summer. Another increase would go a long way toward helping Edmonton’s budgeting. The Oilers don’t have many players entering free agency in 2025, and get a bit of a boost by Cody Ceci’s $3.25MM cap hit coming off the books, but they’ll again have to look towards the future, with Evander Kane, Stuart Skinner, Mattias Ekholm, and Brett Kulak set to join McDavid in 2026’s free agency class.

Edmonton boasts an exciting opportunity to lock in three franchise cornerstones as career Oilers. It’s hard to argue a case against any of them – the trio currently leads Edmonton in postseason scoring and would likely compete for the Conn Smythe Trophy should Edmonton turn the series around. Bouchard’s emergence as a true top defenseman, capable of playing upwards of 25 minutes a night, has propelled Edmonton into a team capable of being carried by their star talent, while Draisaitl has emerged as one of the few players in the NHL capable of rivaling McDavid’s scoring. The Oilers seem plenty aware of those accolades and are now taking the first steps towards securing their future by kicking off contract talks with Draisaitl.

PHR Mailbag: Ullmark, Rangers, Trouba, Marner, Tkachuk-Huberdeau Trade, Laine, Holl

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Jacob Trouba’s future with the Rangers, Patrik Laine’s situation in Columbus, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, we’ll have two more of these columns between now and next weekend so watch for it in one of those.

@JJFlip1995: What is the likelihood that the Bruins trade Ullmark and what is a likely return from said trade?

GM Don Sweeney has made it clear that he’d love to keep both netminders.  I think he’s speaking truthfully about that desire.  But I would be absolutely stunned if it actually happened.  Jeremy Swayman is heading for a pricey long-term contract which would push Boston’s spending on goaltenders near the top of the NHL.  Given that they have some needs to fill while having some rare spending flexibility this summer, I’m not sure that spending big between the pipes is the best way to do it.  It’ll help during the regular season but come playoff time, we saw how little having Ullmark as a high-end second option mattered.

As for a return, I don’t think it’s going to be a huge one.  With what’s believed to be multiple other veteran starters available this summer, the market isn’t going to be too strong beyond the top option (and that’s not Ullmark).  I don’t see the high-end picks being in play over the next couple of weeks.

A lot will depend on if the Bruins are taking a contract back as part of the swap.  If they’re just moving him straight up, they might get a late first-round pick and even that might be on the high side if other dominoes fall first.  I think their preference might be to try to swap Ullmark for a skater to fill one of their other holes with a minimal cap effect.  At that point, you’re probably looking at a second-pairing defender or a second-line winger.  If they can do that and then back-fill with Brandon Bussi taking over behind Swayman, that would be a solid outcome for them.

@RamonesFan41: Who will the Rangers buy out? Trouba, Goodrow, or someone else???

Can I pick none of the above?  I don’t think they buy out anyone, to be honest.

I’ll talk a bit more about Trouba shortly but a buyout costs them $4MM for the next two years and then $2MM for two more years after that.  Can the Rangers get a better defenseman for $4MM or less?  I don’t think they can.  So if you’re not able to upgrade that position, why buy him out and make the team worse?  He didn’t have a great playoff showing but he can still be a contributor so I don’t think they even consider the possibility of a buyout for him.

As for Barclay Goodrow, you could sell me on the idea, at least.  The buyout price tag isn’t crazy.  They’d have a cap credit next season of $200K followed by a $1MM cap charge in 2025-26 before ballooning to a $3.5MM charge in 2026-27.  From there, it’s a little over $1.1MM for three more years.  If they need extra money now, they could buy him out and pre-spend some of the expected cap increase in 2026-27 to cover the higher cost at that time.

But Goodrow is coming off a strong postseason showing where he was one of their leaders in goals with six.  He’s a player who is more effective in the playoffs and I think some might suggest they need more of those players, not less.  I wouldn’t be shocked if they bought him out but I’m leaning no right now.

Looking at the rest of the roster, I don’t see a viable candidate.  If they have reservations about Filip Chytil being able to stay healthy moving forward, they could try to buy him out at one-third of the cost but with the concussion issues he had, I suspect that’s a grievance waiting to happen.  That’s really about it for options so I don’t expect them to go that route in the next couple of weeks.

met man: Do the Rangers stand pat or make moves to improve the team via trades or free agent signings?

With a little over $9MM in cap room per CapFriendly, New York has enough cap space to re-sign Ryan Lindgren and Braden Schneider and round out the roster so they don’t have to necessarily do anything.  They wouldn’t be able to do much else but starting next season with the bulk of this core intact isn’t a bad way to go.  We are, after all, talking about the team that had the most points during the regular season so it’s a good group.

Kaapo Kakko feels like a possible trade chip even with his new deal.  Maybe there’s a winger at a similar price tag that they feel is a better fit on the roster or if they want a free agent in that price range, perhaps you look at moving him for a draft pick.  I wouldn’t be shocked if they looked at some lower-cost free agents as well.  In general, I expect a fairly quiet offseason from them.

But if it were up to me, I’d look to try to go into next season with a couple million in cap space.  They have some waiver-exempt players who could be shuffled back and forth on off days to add to that amount.  Maintaining that to the trade deadline is worth around $9MM to $10MM in full-season salaries, giving them the ability to add multiple players.  If they make a move now, it probably caps them out.  I’d rather try to get two pieces in-season than one during the summer, especially on a team that is already somewhat of a contender.

Schwa: Do you see the Rangers moving on from Trouba? What could you see as the additional assets given to get him off the books?

Maybe a team like Utah could be a fit given they have no D under contract for next season. $8MM for two seasons isn’t too bad for a team to get a physical player who offers leadership. They need to spend some money and he likely won’t provide a cap crunch for them by the time the contract expires.

Let’s talk about Trouba a bit more now.  As I already noted earlier, I don’t see a buyout happening.  It’s fair to say that he underachieved this season and that doesn’t help his short-term trade value.  Neither does an $8MM price tag.  Yes, two years remaining makes it more manageable but how many teams can realistically afford that?  Perhaps more importantly, how many good teams can afford that?

You identified Utah as a possible landing spot and your logic is certainly sound.  That’s definitely a team that could benefit from a shorter-term veteran add to try to stabilize things and they can certainly afford the contract.  But they’re not a playoff team.  Trouba has a 15-team no-trade clause as of July 1st (with a full no-move before then).  Personally, I think it stands to reason that he’d have some non-playoff teams on that list which probably takes Chicago and San Jose, other weaker teams with ample cap room, off the table as well.

If you look at the list of playoff teams this year that can probably afford to take on an $8MM contract without it materially affecting what else they might try to do this summer, Nashville comes to mind.  The problem is they might be the only team on that list.

Without many viable options for a cap dump, they might have to look at trying to move him for another player.  But in doing that, they’re mitigating the cap savings and if I’m being honest, I don’t think they’d get the best player in the move.  If you’re a contender, how much is it worth it to take a lesser player back (one that won’t log 20-plus minutes a night on the right side of the back end) and only get a bit of cap savings?  That doesn’t seem like a great idea to me.  Never say never but I think he stays put.

frozenaquatic: Panarin straight up for Marner. NTCs notwithstanding, who says no? Fills organizational holes for each, and opens up first-line LW for Lafreniere. Panarin’s a little better but Marner is a little younger. Similar contracts.

Trouba to Hockey Club Sibir Novosibirsk Oblast for two pucks and a mouthguard. Who says no? The mouthguard?

I think we’ve covered Trouba more than enough by now but let’s talk about the first proposal.  In a vacuum, I don’t dislike the offer for either side; your quick logic makes sense.  I do think both sides would say no, however.

From Toronto’s perspective, the idea of trading Mitch Marner would be to change up the composition of their roster.  Maybe it’s for a prominent blueliner, a power forward, a future center to possibly replace John Tavares, or a combination of the three.  Artemi Panarin does none of that.  He gets them an extra year of club control at a slightly higher price tag which isn’t nothing but that’s not the type of roster shakeup I think they’d be looking to do.

Meanwhile, for the Rangers, while they save a bit of money for next season, it could cost them considerably for 2025-26.  If they can’t re-sign Marner, then they’ve lost a year of a player who just put up 120 points.  And if they can re-sign him, it’s probably going to be at a price tag that’s higher than Panarin’s which could be notable as they potentially look to reshape their roster.  Having said that, I think they’d be the likelier of the two teams to say yes even though I think they’d say no in the end.

PyramidHeadcrab: Since hindsight is 20/20, who won the Tkachuk-Huberdeau trade? I gotta imagine Florida wins that one by a mile, but can we prove it with numbers? I distinctly remember the Florida fanbase having an absolute meltdown, “Tkachuk is just a mid power forward without Gaudreau!” But in watching this guy the past couple years, I personally think he’s become my favourite player since Paul Kariya.

Still gotta get me a Kariya #9 Ducks jersey…

And speaking of the other casualty of Calgary’s cap crunch, what does Johnny Gaudreau need to be successful going forward in Columbus?

Right now, it’s Florida by a considerable margin in that trade.  Matthew Tkachuk has outscored both Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar combined since the swap (197 points to 190) and makes $7.25MM less.  I think that’s all the numbers that are really needed.

Tkachuk has proven himself to be a legitimate top-line power forward whose style fits in perfectly with a grittier group that the Panthers have.  And while a $9.75MM price tag certainly isn’t cheap, he’d get considerably more than that if he was hitting the open market next month.

Meanwhile, Huberdeau has struggled immensely under two different head coaches now over his first two years in Calgary.  He’s one of the highest-paid wingers in the league and is producing like a second-liner with two years of a little over 50 points.  That can’t be spun as a positive.  They need a whole lot more from him and barring an influx of offensive talent, I’m not sure he can be counted on to produce anywhere close to the level he was with Florida.

I will say this, however.  Weegar had a great season, scoring 20 goals and 52 points while logging nearly 23 minutes a night.  He’s a legitimate top-pairing player and at $6.25MM on a long-term deal, they’ll get some good value out of that for a while, either with the Flames or as part of a trade if they opt for a rebuild.

It’s hard to say Florida will lose this deal, especially if they’re able to close things out against Edmonton.  Right now, it looks pretty lopsided but if Huberdeau can return to a top-line level, Calgary could still do relatively well here.

As for Gaudreau, he needs higher-end linemates.  Boone Jenner is a very good center, one of the more underrated ones even.  But he’s not a true top-line option, especially offensively.  A well-rounded offensive middleman to play off of would make a big difference.  I think they have that in their system, it’s just a matter of getting Adam Fantilli more development time.  In an ideal world, a big winger on the other side to do some of the board work would also help.  So, too, would a more free-flowing system.  In other words, Gaudreau needs a lot to go right if he wants to get back to the point-per-game level.

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Senators Sign AHL Head Coach David Bell To A Two-Year Extension

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Earlier today, it was noted that the Senators were turning their focus toward getting their AHL coaching staff finalized for next season.  It didn’t take long to get the first piece of the puzzle in place as the team announced (Twitter link) that they’ve signed Belleville head coach David Bell to a two-year contract extension.  His deal was set to expire at the end of the month.

Bell has spent the last five seasons with Belleville.  He started as an assistant coach with them in 2019-20 and was elevated to the interim head coaching role in February 2023.  While they missed the playoffs that season, the interim tag was still lifted, a move that worked out well.  Belleville finished fourth in the North Division this season and then won the opening round of the playoffs over Toronto (their first series win in franchise history) before falling to Cleveland.

Bell has never worked at the NHL level but is certainly experienced behind a bench.  He has ten years of OHL coaching experience under his belt while he had four years of being an AHL assistant before joining Ottawa’s system.  While he’ll have to wait a little longer for his first opportunity at the top level, he now has a bit of stability while looking to build on a strong finish from this past season.

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