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Detroit Red Wings Acquire Alex DeBrincat

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Much of the recent speculation surrounding Alex DeBrincat and the Ottawa Senators largely centered around the New York Islanders and Anaheim Ducks as being the most likely suitors in any trade. At the beginning of the offseason, once news broke that DeBrincat may find his way out of Ottawa, the Detroit Red Wings were deemed the likeliest landing spot, but seemed to have fallen out of the running.

In a surprising turn of events, the Red Wings eventually came out on top, trading Dominik Kubalik, Donovan Sebrango, a conditional first-round pick in 2024, and a fourth-round pick in 2024. Furthermore, Detroit also announced a four-year, $31.5MM contract with DeBrincat, paying him an AAV of $7.785MM. The Farmington Hills, MI native is now officially a part of his childhood team.

By acquiring DeBrincat, Detroit immediately addresses one of the major problems that has plagued them the last several seasons, their offense. Two seasons ago, playing for the Chicago Blackhawks at the time, DeBrincat scored 41 goals and 37 assists in 82 games. This past season with the Senators, DeBrincat scored 27 goals and 39 assists in 82 games. Interestingly enough, DeBrincat has also been extremely good all-time against his new team, scoring 11 goals and 30 points in 23 games against the Red Wings in his career.

In context to the condition attached to the first-round pick headed to the Senators, Detroit will have the option to send either their own 2024 first-round selection or the Bruins’ 2024 first-round selection. On Boston’s draft pick, if the pick falls within the top ten of the 2024 draft, the pick will convey to the Bruins’ 2025 first-round selection. At that time, the Red Wings will have the option of sending their own 2024 first-round selection, or the 2025 first-round selection originally owned by Boston.

The contract for DeBrincat will place him second among Red Wings’ earners, sitting behind the eight-year, $69.6MM extension the team handed out to captain Dylan Larkin last season. Given that the 2023-24 season would have been DeBrincat’s last as a restricted free agent, the contract also buys out three years of unrestricted free agency, putting DeBrincat at 29 years for the first time he hits the open market.

From Ottawa’s standpoint, it is hard to imagine this as a positive return. Kubalik has shown offensive skill in the past but struggled mightily down the stretch for the Red Wings last season. In 81 games played for Detroit last year, Kubalik scored 20 goals and 25 assists in 80 games, something that should play well in the Senators’ middle-six forward group. The other player in the deal, Sebrango, was a former 63rd overall pick of the Red Wings back in the 2020 NHL Draft, and split time between the Grand Rapids Griffins and Toledo Walleye last year.

Unfortunately for Ottawa, they were unable to recoup the draft capital they once spent to acquire DeBrincat in the first place. At last year’s draft, the Senators sent their first-round pick, second-round pick, and a third-round selection in 2024 to acquire DeBrincat from the Chicago Blackhawks. That first-round selection would be seventh overall, allowing the Blackhawks to select defenseman Kevin Korchinski. Given the condition of the first-round pick going to Ottawa in this deal, it is unlikely that it will get even close to seventh overall in whichever year the condition is met.

Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet was the first to report that DeBrincat had been traded, and the first to report he would land with Detroit. 

David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period was the first to report the contract details between the Red Wings and DeBrincat. 

PuckPedia was the first to report the conditions of the first-round pick going to the Senators in the deal. 

Snapshots: Gibson, Columbus, Slavin

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Touching on all three of the New York metro teams in a New York Post column, Larry Brooks reports that the New Jersey Devils are indeed interested in John Gibson, but only for the right price. The Devils are still weighing the possible tandem of Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid, and determining whether that is the right fit to earn them a Stanley Cup championship.

New Jersey’s interest in Gibson shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise, as General Manager Tom Fitzgerald has been highly focused on building a lasting winner this offseason. As the trade market also includes Winnipeg Jets’ Connor Hellebuyck, Gibson makes more sense given his current contract status.

Currently, Hellebuyck has one year, $6.17MM remaining on his current contract, but is reportedly seeking around $9MM in the next deal he signs. Articulating his displeasure with Winnipeg’s direction (similar to Gibson with the Anaheim Ducks), it is safe to say that Hellebuyck will not be getting that contract in Manitoba.

Gibson, on the other hand, has four years, $25.6MM left on his contract, a term that fits much better with the Devils’ long-term planning. No matter how much the cap increases next offseason, paying a goaltender $9MM a season for the next eight years will be tough to swallow for just about any team.

Other snapshots:

  • The main columnist of the Columbus Blue Jackets on The Athletic, Aaron Portzline, reported in his article today that the Blue Jackets still have some work to do in thinning out their forward core. One of the main areas of focus, Portzline adds, will be moving out some of the centers that Columbus has on their roster. Already carrying eight forwards with the ability to play center, and a couple more possibly in the minor leagues, the Blue Jackets could make a trade to fill out weaker areas of their team.
  • According to a press release, the Toronto Marlies have announced they have signed forward Josiah Slavin to a one-year deal. Slavin has spent the last several seasons playing for the Rockford IceHogs but was moved to the San Diego Gulls prior to last season’s trade deadline. Slavin has shown flashes in the past of being a solid third-line depth scorer, and the Marlies will be hoping for much of the same from him this season.

 

 

Analyzing Maple Leafs’ Salary Cap Situation

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Around the time of the 2023 Stanley Cup Finals, the league all but confirmed that the salary cap for the 2023-24 season would be set at $83.5MM. It is expected to increase by a larger percentage by this time next summer, but a $1MM increase left a lot of teams with limited cap room to improve.

Impressively, after an assortment of trades and a plethora of free-agent signings, there is only one team that remains that is not currently cap compliant for next season. At this time, the Toronto Maple Leafs, even after LTIR space is factored in, the Maple Leafs will still be approximately $3.2MM over the salary cap.

Much of this has to do with the bloated contracts of Auston Matthews, John Tavares, and Mitch Marner, which carry a combined cap hit of $33.14MM, 39.69% of the team’s total financial capacity. There isn’t much concern that those three players are not worth those contracts, but Toronto will have to make a move nonetheless.

Looking at their cap situation, it appears the Maple Leafs have three different options in their approach to becoming cap compliant. The first of those options would be to move out goaltender Matt Murray, who has one-year, $4.688MM left on his current contract. It would not be hurting Toronto too much, as Murray had another disappointing season in 2022-23, and Joseph Woll gave the team some confidence to put him in a backup role behind Ilya Samsonov.

Finding a fit for Murray is going to be much more difficult than coming to the logical resolution of moving him. After a week of free agency, most teams have a full tandem in the net, and it’s hard to consider Murray an objective upgrade over the already established options. Scarcity aside, Toronto would more than likely have to attach a draft pick to entice teams to take on the final year of Murray’s deal, and the Maple Leafs may be unwilling to part with any of their third or fourth-round picks in the near future.

The second option would be for the team to trade forward Calle Jarnkrok and defenseman Conor Timmins for next to nothing. Carrying a combined cap hit of $3.2MM, clearing that out would get Toronto close enough to get crafty during the season. However, one of the major drawbacks of making a move such as this, both players are quality depth players (Jarnkrok being one of the most underrated in the league) and the Maple Leafs have had difficulty procuring players like this recently.

The last option for Toronto, and could become increasingly likely as far as negotiations have gone up to this point, is to move on from winger William Nylander. Nylander, as well as Matthews, are both up for max-term extensions this offseason, and Nylander and the Maple Leafs don’t appear close. In recent reporting, Nylander’s camp is asking for around $10MM a season, while Toronto is prepared to offer between $8MM-$9MM.

It’s tough to say Nylander hasn’t earned the contract that he wants, as he finished second on the team in scoring last season, and fourth on the team during the playoffs. Neither Matthews nor Marner seemed to take a “hometown discount” on their last deals with the team, so it’s unreasonable to suggest Nylander should either. It could become a best-of-both-worlds option for Toronto, as moving out Nylander would not only free up their cap situation but also bring back significant future assets in return.

In his first year as General Manager of the Maple Leafs, Brad Treliving has already made some prudent moves to improve the club. The acquisition of Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, and John Klingberg should be significant additions, but the work is not close to being done in Toronto.

2023 Free Agency Update

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Now that a full week has passed since the free agent market opened up on July 1st, there are still quite a few quality players left on the market. Unfortunately for most of these players, the fact that the salary cap only went up to $83.5MM for the 2023-24 season, has severely limited teams from adding more talent to their roster.

There are a few teams, such as the Toronto Maple Leafs, Vancouver Canucks, Tampa Bay Lightning, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Vegas Golden Knights that are currently too close to the cap to make any more significant additions; however, there are a number of teams that still have some financial wiggle room. In this list, we will go through some of the top remaining names left on the market organized by position.

Forwards

Patrick Kane – His long-time teammate, Jonathan Toews, is most likely headed towards retirement, but thus far, there has been no indication to suggest that Kane will join him down that path. During the 2021-22 season, Kane continued displaying incredible offensive talent, which has spanned over the last decade, evidenced by his 92 points in 78 games. Unfortunately for Kane, a nagging hip injury seemed to follow him around, as he was only able to muster a total of 35 points in 50 games for the Chicago Blackhawks, only nine of those being goals. As the league grew closer to the trade deadline, speculation grew that Kane may not be moved at all.

To prove the doubters wrong, in his last five games wearing a Blackhawks uniform, Kane scored three goals and seven assists in five games and was promptly moved to the New York Rangers. Needing some time to adjust to a new environment, Kane put up a respectable 12 points in 19 games for the Rangers during the regular season. Even more importantly, Kane did continue his impressive career-long playoff success, scoring six points in seven games for New York.

Vladimir Tarasenko – Now one of Kane’s former teammates with the Rangers, Tarasenko is also suffering from a depressed year according to his standards. Just a season ago, Tarasenko finished with 82 points in 75 games, looking to be setting himself nicely to hit the market this offseason. Much like Kane, Tarasenko’s offensive numbers took a dive, only scoring 10 goals in 38 games for the St.Louis Blues, before he was also traded to New York before the deadline.

In 31 games for the Rangers, Tarasenko did see a slight offensive output improvement, but not by much. In 31 games in New York, he scored eight goals and 13 assists, adding another four points in seven playoff games. Tarasenko had been heavily linked to the Ottawa Senators and Carolina Hurricanes towards the opening of the market, but was so underwhelmed by his offers, that he switched his representation to CAA Hockey.

Tomas Tatar – One of the more interesting names still available in the free agency market, Tatar has made it difficult for teams to gauge exactly what kind of player they are going to get. In the regular season, he is typically good for 20 goals, and anywhere from 25-35 assists. Last season playing for the New Jersey Devils, Tatar scored 20 goals and 28 assists in 82 games, impressively carrying a rating of +41 at season’s end.

Not only does he carry above-average offensive output for the majority of his career, his possession numbers are solid too, evidenced by his career marks of 60.6 CF%. The major problem for Tatar is the completely different player that seems to come out during the playoffs. In 52 career playoff games, Tatar carries a horrid seven goals and six assists, and an even worse -14 rating. This fact about Tatar has likely driven playoff teams away from his camp, and even rebuilding teams as well, as they likely wouldn’t receive much interest for his services at the trade deadline.

Defensemen

Mathew Dumba – One of the focal points to the Minnesota Wild’s defense over the last decade, Dumba has seemingly become a different player after his impressive 2017-18 season. The offensive numbers have taken the biggest hit, only scoring 94 points in the last 209 games wearing a Wild jersey. Things are not all bad though for Dumba, as he regularly played over 20 minutes a game in Minnesota, saw ice time on the penalty kill, and still carries an oiSV% of 90.5.

Because of their cap situation, it is more than likely that Dumba has played his last game for the Wild, and the two most interested teams find themselves well out of the playoff picture for the next couple of seasons. The Arizona Coyotes have reportedly been linked to Dumba, giving him better access to power-play time; and the San Jose Sharks have considered adding him as well, citing Dumba as a possible replacement for Erik Karlsson.

Goaltenders

Martin Jones – The 2023 free agency class was always considered thin, and the goalie market may have been the thinnest of all positions. Most quality names have already signed up to this point, making Jones one of the better options still available.

During the 2022-23 season, Jones had a back-and-forth season. During a stretch in early January for Seattle, Jones produced a record of 7-0-0, carrying a .926 SV% during that stretch. The win streaks that the Kraken were able to achieve with Jones in the net ultimately put the team in the playoffs, but the overall picture of Jones’ year doesn’t look promising. Although finishing with a great record of 27-13-3, Jones finished the year with a .886 SV% and a 2.99 GAA. The underlying numbers don’t bode well for Jones either, as his GSAA finished at -21.4.

Seattle Kraken Re-Sign Cale Fleury

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1:36 PM: The team has formally announced the signing via a press release.

11:44 AM: The Seattle Kraken and blueliner Cale Fleury have reached a deal on a contract extension prior to their arbitration hearing, according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman. Per CapFriendly, the deal is a two-year, one-way $800k AAV contract that will see Fleury make $775k in 2023-24 and $825k in 2024-25.

The 24-year-old right-shot blueliner was set to press his case in arbitration after a 2022-23 campaign spent mostly as a healthy scratch. Fleury was a press-box regular for Seattle last season, at one point going a stretch of 31 straight games outside the lineup.

He didn’t play at all in the AHL as the Coachella Valley Firebirds made a run to Game Seven of the Calder Cup Finals. The Kraken were likely unwilling to expose the player to the waiver wire mid-season and potentially see him claimed by a team in need of a right-shot blueliner.

Fleury was an original Kraken expansion draft selection, acquired from the Montreal Canadiens. The 2017 third-round pick already had some success on his resume as a former WHL captain who racked up 102 hits in just 41 games as an NHL rookie.

He played most of his first season with the Kraken in the AHL, serving as an alternate captain for the Charlotte Checkers. He scored a healthy 33 points in 58 games, a career-high by a wide margin.

Fleury’s success in the AHL and his time spent with Seattle as mostly a healthy scratch last season have earned him a one-way contract extension spanning the next two seasons.

While the Kraken already have Adam Larsson, Will Borgen, Justin Schultz entrenched on the right side of their defense, Fleury could be first in line to take one of their spots in case of an injury. Or, he could end up on the waiver wire and claimed by a club willing to give him a more regular opportunity to play NHL games.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Vancouver Canucks Re-Sign Nils Höglander

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The Vancouver Canucks have announced that they have signed RFA forward Nils Höglander to a two-year contract carrying a $1.1MM AAV. Höglander, 22, will be a restricted free agent at the end of the deal and will hold arbitration rights.

Canucks GM Patrik Allvin issued the following statement regarding this re-signing:

Nils learned a lot this past season, especially playing meaningful playoff games in Abbotsford. It’s not easy to start the year in the NHL and then be sent down to the American League, but we were impressed with the way he took that challenge head on. He worked hard on his game and give credit to Jeremy Colliton, his staff, and our development team as well for helping Nils improve on things during the year. This experience should really help Nils compete for a spot on our team at training camp this fall.

The move all but finishes up the Canucks’ outstanding offseason business (barring any trades on the horizon) as their only remaining RFA is Vitali Kravtsov, who is off to play in the KHL next season and only received a qualifying offer from Vancouver so the organization could retain his NHL rights.

Höglander earns this deal after a season where he split time between the AHL’s Abbotsford Canucks and Vancouver. He began the season with the Canucks and posted nine points in 25 games.

But Höglander’s average ice time had declined to a career-low 12:03 per night, and the organization opted to have him play in Abbotsford as the better choice for his development.

The Swedish winger acquitted himself well in the AHL, posting 32 points in 45 regular-season games and six points in six postseason contests.

That’s still a far cry from Höglander’s rookie season, though, when at the age of 20 he scored 27 points in 56 games and got some down-ballot Calder Trophy consideration.

Set to turn 23 in December, Hoglander will be waiver-eligible this season for the first time in his career. He hasn’t yet played in any games for Canucks head coach Rick Tocchet (he was sent down to the AHL before Tocchet was hired) and therefore he presumably has a clean slate to work with as he looks to earn a role in Tocchet’s training camp in the fall.

Although Andrei Kuzmenko and Anthony Beauvillier are likely to occupy the two left-winger slots in Vancouver’s top-six, Höglander has an opportunity to earn a top-nine role playing as Tocchet’s third-line left winger. In that role, he could potentially play with an established NHL scorer such as Conor Garland or Brock Boeser, as well as an experienced center in Teddy Blueger.

It’s a big year for Höglander, and this two-year contract at a $1.1MM AAV shows the Canucks’ belief that Höglander is an NHL player moving forward. While his $1.1MM cap hit can be fully buried in the minors, this contract gives the winger a solid opportunity to deliver on some of the upside he showed in his rookie season.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Philadelphia Flyers Sign Alexei Kolosov

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Just one day after one of their organization’s goalies, Ivan Fedotov, had his KHL contract registered despite holding a valid NHL contract, the Flyers have made another move regarding a KHL goalie. They’ve signed one of their organization’s top goalie prospects, Alexei Kolosov, to a three-year entry-level deal.

According to CapFriendly, the contract carries a $925k cap hit and a $80k AHL salary for its three-year duration. Kolosov’s agent, Aljoša Pilko, wrote on Twitter that his client would “start and finish the season with Dinamo Minsk,” meaning even with the signing of this entry-level deal he’ll be staying in the KHL for another season.

Despite being just 21 years old, Kolosov led the goalie tandem in Minsk last season, playing in 42 regular season games. He played better than the team’s other netminder, 23-year-old Konstantin Shostak, posting a .912 save percentage and 2.55 goals-against-average in that time frame.

While Kolosov’s numbers aren’t quite up to the standard set by some elite KHL prospects in years past (such as Igor Shesterkin or Ilya Sorokin) they are quite impressive for a goalie his age, especially on a team that only barely managed to reach the KHL playoffs.

The Athletic’s Charlie O’Connor reports that the “Flyers are very high” on Kolosov, who they drafted 78th overall at the 2021 draft, and “see him as a big part of their goaltending future.” With this entry-level deal signed, the Flyers have set in stone Kolosov’s eventual crossing of the Atlantic to play for their organization in North America.

The hope for this season will be for Kolosov to have another strong season in his native Belarus before likely seeing some time the year after with the Flyers’ AHL affiliate, the Lehigh Valley Phantoms.

Snapshots: Clifton, Novak, Marlies

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Signing a three-year, $10MM contract with the Buffalo Sabres shortly after the market opened on July 1st, defenseman Connor Clifton had no shortage of offers. In an article from Kevin Paul Dupont of the Boston Globe, he passes along a note from Clifton’s agent, Eric Quinlan, that the defenseman had as many as 10 offers, one of which was for a longer-term and higher AAV than what he eventually signed in Buffalo.

It’s not difficult to ascertain why Clifton ultimately picked the Sabres as his landing spot, as they are considered one of the most exciting upstart teams in all of hockey. Clifton ultimately brings what the organization needs. The Sabres were great offensively last season, illustrated by their 3.57 GF/G (third in NHL), but they struggled defensively, finishing 27th in the league in GA/G with a 3.62 mark.

Clifton is most known for his skill on the defensive side of the puck, but he did produce better offensively with the Boston Bruins last season, scoring five goals and 18 assists in 78 games. His defensive attributes will be more of what the Sabres are expecting on this deal, as Clifton’s career oiSV% (Team On-Ice Save Percentage in All Situations) of 92.4% will dramatically help the team keep the puck out of their net.

Other snapshots:

  • In a very heartwarming story, Joe Smith of The Athletic reports that Minnesota Wild prospect, Pavel Novak, is now completely cancer-free. Unfortunately, he will not participate in the team’s development camp due to a lower-body injury, but beating cancer is a big enough victory in and of itself. Novak was originally drafted 146th overall in the 2020 NHL Draft, last playing competitive hockey during the 2021-22 season with the Kelowna Rockets of the WHL. In that last full year of play, Novak impressed at the junior level, scoring 72 points in 62 games.
  • The Toronto Marlies filled out a good majority of their roster today, announcing one-year extensions for Matthew Hellickson, Tommy Miller, Matteo Pietroniro, Zach Solow, and Keenan Suthers. Of the group, Suthers is the only player that did not feature for the Marlies last season, as the rest of the players will likely be used mostly as depth next season.

Detroit Red Wings Sign John Lethemon

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The Detroit Red Wings announced they have signed goaltender John Lethemon to a one-year, two-way contract. The deal will pay Lethemon $775K at the NHL level, although it is unexpected he will reach this season.

Two years ago, Lethemon spent time with the Ontario Reign of the AHL, and with the Greenville Swamp Rabbits of the ECHL, both affiliated with the Los Angeles Kings. He was never drafted by the Kings, as he was signed out of Michigan State University to a tryout agreement. In March of this year, the Red Wings officially signed Lethemon to his first contract, paying him $750K at the NHL level.

Much like he did in the Kings organization, Lethemon split time between the Grand Rapids Griffins of the AHL and the Toledo Walleye of the ECHL. Things did not go well for Lethemon in Grand Rapids, as he was only able to produce a 1-6-2 record in nine games, earning a 3.88 GAA and a .878 SV%. Primarily sharing the net with the top goaltending prospect for Detroit, Sebastian Cossa, Lethemon did much better for the Walleye. In 26 starts, Lethemon earned an incredible 18-1-3 record, producing a 1.99 GAA and a .930 SV%.

During the 2023 Kelly Cup playoffs, Lethemon split the net with Cossa, earning a 4-2-0 record, carrying a 2.64 GAA and a .917 SV%. Although his numbers did dip in the postseason, the goaltending tandem led the Walleye to the Western Conference Finals, eventually losing to the Idaho Steelheads.

West Notes: Toews, Labanc, Myers, Oilers

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Most of the top free agents have already been grabbed off the market so far this offseason, yet there are a couple of big names that remain. One of them, Jonathan Toews, had one of the more murkier futures than most. After the Chicago Blackhawks announced they would not be re-signing their captain, much of the speculation pointed Toews to two options: the Edmonton Oilers or retirement.

Mark Spector of Sportsnet was asked to answer a question about Toews in his regular Oilers mailbag, and he painted a much clearer image of what Toews’ future will hold. Apparently, when Toews’ agency gave out their annual list of pending free agents to interested parties, “we are told his name was not even on the list”.

This is not a surprising development, as Toews has battled chronic immune response syndrome as well as long-term negative side effects from Covid-19. Both of these illnesses have severely cut into his playing time, as Toews has been unable to suit up for a full year since the 2018-19 season. Realistically, it is more than likely that we have seen the last of Toews in the NHL.

Other notes:

  • Right before the free agent market opened on July 1st, it was reported that the San Jose Sharks and Vancouver Canucks had recently discussed a trade that would send defenseman Tyler Myers to the Bay Area. During their podcast, ’Canucks Central’, Dan Riccio and Sat Shah confirmed the deal would have been a one-for-one swap for winger Kevin Labanc. It makes sense for both teams, as Myers has fallen out of favor in Vancouver, and the team mostly addressed its defensive core via free agency. From the Sharks’ perspective, the team is widely expected to move defenseman Erik Karlsson before the offseason concludes, and Myers would fill that hole left on their right side.
  • One of the major holdups in any Myers deal is the $5MM bonus he is due on September 1st of this year. At the beginning of last season, there were reports that a deal that would have sent Myers to the Ottawa Senators fell through due to the bonus due to Myers. Unfortunately for interested parties, David Quadrelli of Nation HQ reports that the Canucks are unable to pay the bonus early, as the league has deemed it a salary cap circumvention.
  • One of the main focal points of the Oilers’ offseason is to sign restricted free agent defenseman Evan Bouchard to a contract extension, but it appears the Oilers are also looking to add to their forward depth. Michael DeRosa of The Hockey News reports that Edmonton has significant interest in Philadelphia Flyers’ forwards Travis Konecny and Scott Laughton. Both players would be a positive addition to the team’s forward core, but with only $5.6MM available in cap space, it is hard to envision the Oilers being able to absorb the $5.5MM owed to Konecny, or the $3MM owed to Laughton.

 

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