After the Vancouver Canucks wrapped up a busy offseason of UFA signings mostly focused on fortifying their defense, everyone is now watching Elias Pettersson’s contract situation as the 2023-24 season approaches. The star center is heading into the final year of his three-year bridge contract, carrying a $7.35MM million cap hit, signed in 2021. While the Canucks will still retain his rights next summer as a restricted free agent if an extension isn’t reached soon, Pettersson’s potential eligibility for unrestricted free agency in 2025 if he only signs a one-year extension has given him tremendous leverage in upcoming negotiations. His agent, J.P. Barry, said early last month he doesn’t anticipate beginning those extension talks with Vancouver until the end of this summer.
Today, The Athletic’s Harman Dayal polled a number of NHL agents on what potential scenarios could arise in Pettersson extension talks. Obviously, the biggest question facing Pettersson’s camp is whether he should sign an extension immediately this summer or take a wait-and-see approach into the season. Waiting would offer him more clarity on the Canucks’ future and potentially enhance his earning power if he continues his upward climb. If the team can finally perform well after a long stretch of mediocrity, Pettersson may feel more comfortable committing long-term.
One anonymous agent suggested a wait-and-see approach could be sensible but said not to discount the mental challenges that a contract year can place on a player and, in turn, affect their performance. If Pettersson and his camp feel the outside noise of extension talks during the season would be too much of a distraction, signing now would almost definitely be a better choice to avoid lowering his value after a 102-point year last season. It’s likely something Pettersson will heavily consider after going through the contract-related pressure Pettersson faced in the final year of his entry-level contract in 2020-21, Dayal says.
Another factor affecting the timing of negotiations is whether Pettersson’s camp wants to wait for Auston Matthews’ extension, as it could introduce a new comparable, another agent said. Pettersson’s value may have been tampered slightly by a recent comparable – Carolina Hurricanes center Sebastian Aho, who signed an eight-year extension last month carrying a $9.75MM cap hit. If Matthews’ extension in Toronto comes in north of $12MM, it could strengthen Pettersson’s case for an eight-figure cap hit on a long-term deal.
While eight-year deals are the norm for players with high cap hits, an agent Dayal spoke to said shorter contracts have become more attractive due to the expected rise in the salary cap. Signing a shorter contract could allow Pettersson to capitalize on a higher salary cap when he re-enters the market in his late 20s.
Of note, former Vancouver Canucks assistant general manager Chris Gear predicted a cap hit between $9.5MM and $10.25MM on Pettersson’s next deal last month.
