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Summer Synopsis: Anaheim Ducks

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Last season was a tough one for Anaheim in the standings.  With the team squarely in a rebuild, they struggled considerably at both ends of the ice, allowing the most goals in the league while scoring the second-fewest.  That resulted in head coach Dallas Eakins being let go with Greg Cronin, a long-time coach at lower levels, getting his first opportunity to run an NHL bench.  However, based on what has been a quiet summer, expectations for 2023-24 should be similar to how last season went as this is a team that remains in transition.

Draft

1-2: F Leo Carlsson, Orebro (SHL)
2-33: F Nico Myatovic, Seattle (WHL)
2-59: F Carey Terrance, Erie (OHL)
2-60: G Damian Clara, Farjestad (Sweden U20)
3-65: F Coulson Pitre, Flint (OHL)
3-85: F Yegor Sidorov, Saskatoon (WHL)
4-97: D Konnor Smith, Peterborough (OHL)
5-129: D Rodwin Dionicio, Windsor (OHL)
6-161: D Vojtech Port, Edmonton (WHL)

While Anaheim finished last in the league, they weren’t able to win the lottery for the top pick, sliding to second.  GM Pat Verbeek then surprised some with the selection of Carlsson over the consensus second choice (Adam Fantilli).  Carlsson gives the Ducks a third center with early first-round pedigree and the hope is that he along with Trevor Zegras and Mason McTavish will allow them to eventually be a dominant team down the middle.  Carlsson has already signed his entry-level deal but could be loaned to the AHL or back to the SHL if he doesn’t crack the roster.

Myatovic was a bit of a surprise selection as the top pick on the second day of the draft but he rose up draft boards all season long and should be in line for a much bigger role with the Thunderbirds this coming season.  Terrance tripled his goal total from his rookie OHL season to become one of the better draft-eligible scorers in that league while finishing strong at the World Under-18s.  Clara also was picked well before his consensus rankings but was one of the tallest goalies in this draft class.  Anaheim hopes the Italian netminder will one day push for NHL playing time but is a longer-term project.

Trade Acquisitions

F Andrew Agozzino (San Jose)
D Ilya Lyubushkin (Buffalo)

Agozzino was acquired the day before the draft in a swap of veterans that spent most of last season in the minors.  The 32-year-old was productive in limited NHL duty last season, recording three points in four games while averaging nearly a point per game in 63 AHL contests.  Agozzino will get a chance to crack Anaheim’s roster in training camp but is likely ticketed for AHL San Diego.

Lyubushkin was recently acquired from Buffalo for a fourth-round pick.  The 29-year-old will bring some physicality to their third pairing and with him being on an expiring contract, he becomes a strong candidate to be flipped at the trade deadline with some salary retention.

UFA Signings

D Trevor Carrick (one year, $775K)*
D Radko Gudas (three years, $12MM)
D Robert Hagg (one year, $775K)
F Alex Killorn (four years, $25MM)
G Alex Stalock (one year, $800K)

*-denotes two-way contract

Killorn’s AAV wound up being the most expensive of any forward in this UFA class, a distinction few would have expected heading into the open market.  He also received a full no-trade clause in the first two seasons of the deal plus a partial no-trade in the final two years.  For a player best utilized as a second-line winger, it’s definitely an overpayment from Anaheim’s perspective but it’s clear that Verbeek is placing a high level of importance on what he also brings off the ice to help what is a very young core.  The 33-year-old is coming off his two best seasons offensively and has hit the 25-goal mark in three of the last four years.  It will be interesting to see how close he can get to that going from one of the strongest offensive teams to one of the weakest.

Gudas certainly bolstered his value with a good playoff showing for Florida in their run to the Stanley Cup Final, providing plenty of snarl and physicality on the third pairing.  He’ll likely be asked a more prominent role with Anaheim with many of their strong blueline prospects still a year or two away from making a serious push for playing time.  Hagg is best known for, you guessed it, his physicality on the back end.  Injuries limited him last season in Detroit and he’ll be trying to lock down a regular spot on the blueline to help rebuild some value.  Carrick is a strong offensive blueliner at the AHL level and should be a key piece for San Diego next season.  The move reunites him with his brother Sam who played in 52 games for the Ducks last season.

Stalock was one of the feel-good stories in the NHL in 2022-23.  Battling through myocarditis the previous two years, the veteran had only made one NHL appearance in those two campaigns combined.  He wound up making 27 appearances in Chicago, posting a .908 SV% that was above the league average despite being on a rebuilding team that had only one more point than the Ducks in the standings.  He’ll battle prospect Lukas Dostal for the second-string position between the pipes.

RFA Re-Signings

G Lukas Dostal (two years, $1.625MM)*
F Benoit-Olivier Groulx (one year, $775K)*
F Troy Terry (seven years, $49MM)

*-denotes two-way contract

Terry is an example of how a bridge contract can work out well for a player in the end.  It took him a while to make an impact in the NHL which led to his second contract being a three-year bridge.  In the second season of that deal, his production took off as he recorded 67 points and then followed it up with a 61-point showing last season despite missing a dozen games.  In doing so, he showed that he is a capable top-line weapon for the Ducks and he should be a focal part of the attack for years to come to work with their young middlemen.  This deal took until just before a scheduled arbitration hearing to get done where the two sides were well apart in their filings but it should work out well for both sides.

Groulx has seen NHL action in each of the last two seasons, totaling 20 appearances.  He will be waiver-eligible for the first time this fall and isn’t a lock to get through unclaimed.  The long-term Achilles injury to Isac Lundestrom could open up a spot for him to break camp with Anaheim if he has a strong training camp.

Dostal held his own in 19 appearances with the Ducks last season but took a bit of a step back with the Gulls in the minors, seeing his GAA go up from 2.60 to 2.97 while losing four points off his save percentage (to .912).  Even so, he’s viewed as a possible goalie of the future for Anaheim and so even with Stalock in the fold, it’s likely that Dostal will see at least some NHL action this season.

Departures

D Nathan Beaulieu (unsigned UFA)
D Simon Benoit (unsigned UFA)
F Max Comtois (unsigned UFA)
F Derek Grant (Zurich, NLA)
D Scott Harrington (unsigned UFA)
F Justin Kirkland (Arizona, one year, $775K)*
F Jayson Megna (Boston, one year, $775K)*
D John Moore (unsigned UFA)
D Chase Priskie (Washington, one year, $775K)*
D Kevin Shattenkirk (Boston, one year, $1.05MM)
F Josiah Slavin (Toronto, AHL)
G Anthony Stolarz (Florida, one year, $1.1MM)
D Andrej Sustr (trade with San Jose)

Up front, Comtois is the most notable loss.  A couple of years ago, he looked like a middle-six fixture of the future but struggled considerably since then resulting in a mutual non-tender.  Grant has had three stints with the Ducks and had a career year in 2021-22 but was limited to just five goals in 48 games last season.  Rather than seek a PTO, he decided to try his hand overseas where he’ll have a more offensive role.  Megna played in 55 NHL games last season between Colorado and Anaheim in a fourth-line role that can be replaced from within while Kirkland and Slavin were regulars with the Gulls.

There has been considerably more turnover on the back end.  Shattenkirk was second on the Ducks in points by a defender last season, a role that isn’t going to be filled from their external acquisitions.  RFA Jamie Drysdale, on the other hand, seems poised to assume that role.  Benoit very quietly logged over 19 minutes a night on the back end and held his own, making him one of the more intriguing options left on a thinned-out UFA market.

Beaulieu was supposed to be a blueliner with some upside when he came into the league but has seen his production crater in recent years; he hasn’t scored a goal in the last three seasons.  He’ll likely need to go the PTO route to have a shot at making a roster in October.  Harrington is in a similar situation.  He has been a seventh defender in recent seasons and is serviceable in that role but it’s not one that will have teams offering up guaranteed money at this point of the summer.  Sustr and Priskie were AHL regulars last season while Moore missed the entire season dealing with lingering concussion symptoms.

Stolarz battled injury trouble last season, costing him 39 games in total and perhaps a shot at landing a likelier backup spot along the way.  He struggled in 2022-23 with a save percentage of just .874 in 19 games but in his first three seasons with Anaheim, he had a .920 mark in 37 contests.  He’ll battle for the number two role in Florida but is likely ticketed to be a high-paid insurance option in the minors.

Salary Cap Outlook

Few teams have as much cap space as the Ducks do as they have roughly $16.6MM in flexibility, per CapFriendly.  That number will certainly go down once Zegras and Drysdale – their two remaining restricted free agents – sign new contracts but Anaheim has ample cap space at their disposal both for the upcoming season and the foreseeable future.

Key Questions

To Bridge Or Not To Bridge: Zegras has been a productive center over the last two seasons, notching 23 goals in both campaigns while improving his point total from 61 to 65 in 2022-23.  The market for these types of players is well-defined; a max-term contract should cost somewhere around the $8MM mark which would move him ahead of Terry.  Is that a price tag Verbeek is willing to pay or would he prefer to see if Zegras has another gear he can get to first?  A bridge contract should be more in the $5MM range but could push his next contract into the $10MM range if he has another level to get to offensively.  Verbeek has suggested that if Carlsson is able to make the team at center, it could be Zegras who is shifted to the wing which could also affect his value moving forward.

Will Gibson Move? There has been no shortage of trade speculation involving veteran goaltender John Gibson this summer.  It got to the point where there were reports of a trade demand although those have been denied.  That said, it wouldn’t be shocking if the 30-year-old would want a change of scenery as he’s under contract for four more years and let’s face it, the Ducks aren’t exactly close to challenging for a playoff spot.  A $6.4MM cap charge will make getting commensurate value very difficult in this marketplace but if a team runs into goalie trouble early in the year, Gibson could be an intriguing target.

Defensive Youth Movement? There are definitely some placeholders on Anaheim’s back end right now as only Cam Fowler and Radko Gudas are signed for more than one year with Drysdale likely to add to that list (even on a bridge contract).  Meanwhile, the Ducks are loaded in defensive prospects with the top rearguards in the WHL (Olen Zellweger), OHL (Pavel Mintyukov), and QMJHL (Tristan Luneau) with Jackson LaCombe and Drew Helleson already having gotten their feet wet at the NHL level.  Zellweger and Mintyukov can start their pro careers this season with the Gulls and if they can push for playing time quickly along with LaCombe and Helleson, the blueline that ends the season could look a whole lot different than the one that starts the year while giving the team (and fans) a glimpse of what’s to come.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Notes: Canucks, Capitals, Penguins

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With a murky salary cap situation and a glut of forwards ready and able to play in the NHL next season, the Vancouver Canucks should not be considered done with their lineup tweaking leading into training camp this September. Patrick Johnston of The Province agrees with that narrative, indicating that the Cancuks appear forced to move out a winger before the season begins.

Taking into account the probable return of forward Tanner Pearson, Johnston argues that Vancouver has five wingers set to fill three spots in the lineup. With Pearson, the Canucks have Vasily Podkolzin, Conor Garland, Brock Boeser, and Nils Hoglander set to fill three open spots on the wing for Vancouver. The team does have some flexibility with Pearson, however; if he is not ready for NHL minutes after the conclusion of training camp, the team could waive him and assign him to the AHL, as it is unlikely that another team would put in a claim.

It’s never a problem to have too much depth in the NHL, and the Canucks may wait out training camp before making a significant move to thin out their roster, but they have put themselves in a territory to make a move regardless. Boeser has been the one name most oft-mentioned in trade rumors over the last several years, as well as Garland more recently, but the two may provide too much on-ice value to Vancouver to have them seriously consider a trade that far in advance of the trade deadline.

Other notes:

  • This summer, the Washington Capitals and their General Manager, Brian MacLellan, have been adamant about adding some forward depth to the lineup. Having this in mind, Sammi Silber of The Hockey News asserts that the Capitals should entertain the idea of bringing in free agent Jesse Puljujarvi on a professional tryout for training camp. Throughout his time in the NHL, Puljujarvi has not lived up to being the fourth-overall selection of the 2016 NHL Draft. However, as Silber points out in her article, the new Capitals head coach, Spencer Carbery, has excelled throughout his career in getting the most out of up-and-coming players and may be exactly what Puljujarvi needs to turn his career around.
  • Mark Scheig of The Hockey Writers is reporting that the Pittsburgh Penguins have hired Cam Charron as a Hockey Research and Development Analyst. Charron had previously held a similar title with the Toronto Maple Leafs for the previous eight seasons and will join the new President of Hockey Operations, Kyle Dubas, in his transition to Pittsburgh.

Robert Mastrosimone Signs AHL Contract With Toronto

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One of the more intriguing names that saw his exclusive rights expire on August 15th, Robert Mastrosimone, has signed a one-year AHL contract with the Toronto Marlies, per a team release. It’s a fairly surprising outcome for the young forward, as many theorized that he may be in line for a two-way NHL contract after his impressive season at Arizona State University last year.

In 2019, Mastrosimone capped off a solid 2018-19 season with the USHL’s Chicago Steel by being drafted in the second round of the 2019 NHL Draft by the Detroit Red Wings. Having already committed to Boston University for his collegiate career at the time, the Red Wings initially thought it would be the best step forward for his development.

Unfortunately for Mastrosimone, his situation did not pan out well in Boston. Over the next three seasons, playing in 83 games for the Terriers, Mastrosimone would only score 21 goals and 29 assists overall, with his best season coming during his Junior year in 2021-22. Without much of a path forward in Boston, Detroit seemingly underwhelmed by his development, Mastrosimone would take his talents to Arizona State University to cap off his collegiate career.

In 38 games for the Sun Devils during the 2022-23 NCAA season, Mastrosimone scored 11 goals and 31 assists, showing off his true skill level with new access to more playing time. As the season came to its conclusion, there was no word on Mastrosimone’s future with Detroit until March. Towards the end of the year, in speaking with reporters, head coach of Arizona State, Greg Powers said, “He’s playing the waiting game and seeing what’s going to be available as a free agent. There’s a lot of teams that are interested in him, but it doesn’t look like Detroit is going to happen. It’s just a waiting game, but he has the option to come back. It’s a good option and he’s open to it”.

Now, moving forward for Mastrosimone, he will have the opportunity to prove his worth at the AHL level next season, potentially earning a two-way NHL contract if his development shows promise. Over the past several years, largely due to their cap situation, the Maple Leafs have been one of the better teams in bringing in young, cheap talent to fill out the bottom of their roster.

Snapshots: Toews, Norway, Andrae

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A few days ago, speaking on NHL Tonight, David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period spoke in great length about some of the options that the Boston Bruins had been looking at to start their offseason. He mentioned that the Bruins had kicked the tires in July on potentially landing Mark Scheifele from the Winnipeg Jets, and had also mildly looked into the price tag of both Elias Lindholm and Mikael Backlund from the Calgary Flames.

Pagnotta also noted the potential fit between the Bruins and NHL veteran Jonathan Toews. Even though Toews had primarily been working on getting healthy and recovering from the effects of Long Covid, the Bruins were on Toews’ radar dating back to last year as a potential destination. Only a day later from that interview, we would learn that Toews has decided he will forego the entirety of the 2023-24 NHL season, and look to make a comeback for the 2024-25 campaign.

If Boston starts the season with Charlie Coyle and Pavel Zacha as their top two centermen heading into the season, being unable to replace the void left by the retirements of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, it will not be from lack of trying. Without much in the way of draft capital for the next two seasons, and the lack of cap flexibility, the Bruins will largely have to look to trade from their NHL roster if they have any hope of acquiring a high-end talent to man the middle of the ice.

Other snapshots:

  • In an article from Matthis Karlsson of Sport Bladet, the Norwegian National Team has been shut down for the time being. After losing $9MM in 2022, all but the country’s J20 National Team will cease operations moving forward. Not only will the team be shut down, but Karlsson also mentions that five members of the team’s union have been let go in an effort to cut costs. It is more bad news for the National club, as the team has finished in 13th place in the last three consecutive World Championships, and was unable to qualify for the 2022 Olympic Games in Beijing, China.
  • Emil Andrae, a second-round pick of the Philadelphia Flyers in the 2020 NHL Draft will reportedly be coming to North America for the 2023-24 season (X Link). Playing for HV71 of the SHL last season, Andrae put up an impressive six goals and 20 assists in 51 games as a 21-year-old. Rising through the ranks of the Flyers’ prospect pool, it is unlikely that Andrae will make the team out of training camp, and will likely spend the majority of next season playing for the team’s AHL affiliate, the Lehigh Valley Phantoms.

Minor Transactions: 08/19/23

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Even over the weekend, moves from the AHL and other notable leagues are trickling in as teams across the hockey world round out their opening night rosters for 2023-24. Expect continued movement on the minor-league and European league front, especially over the next two weeks, with some seasons kicking off as early as September 1. Here’s a listing of today’s notable minor moves:

  • 2014 Minnesota Wild sixth-round pick Chase Lang is staying with the ECHL’s Indy Fuel for next season, per a release from the club. Lang, now 26, has played in the ECHL since the Wild let him become a UFA after completing his entry-level contract in 2019. The 6-foot-1 forward recorded 20 points and 97 penalty minutes in 45 games for the Fuel last season, finishing second on the team in time spent in the penalty box. Lang hasn’t played an extended AHL role since he skated in 22 games with the Iowa Wild in 2017-18, and he spent the entirety of the final season of his ELC on an ECHL assignment with the Allen Americans. It’ll be a long road back for Lang to earn an AHL contract at this stage, let alone an NHL deal.

This page will be updated throughout the day.

Multiple Teams Showing Interest In Patrick Kane

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While former Chicago Blackhawks and New York Rangers winger Patrick Kane may be the best UFA left on the market, no one expects him to sign a deal in the coming days. That’s because he’s still recovering from a hip resurfacing procedure he had done in June, which puts him on track to be cleared for game action sometime between October and December.

Speaking on NHL Network earlier this week, The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta gave various updates on the 34-year-old, including three teams that had displayed “significant” interest earlier in the summer: the Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars and New York Islanders. Pagnotta also mentioned the Boston Bruins as a potential suitor but to a lesser degree.

Undoubtedly, teams will want to watch him practice before extending him a contract, even if it’s just a one-year pact, as expected. A significant hip procedure for an athlete as late into their career as Kane is no small factor in what his game may look like after he’s recovered. Pagnotta believes there should be clarity on Kane’s health status and a more specific potential return date in “four to five weeks,” which could also be a target date for Kane signing rumors heating up in earnest.

Out of all the suitors Pagnotta mentioned, Colorado has made sense for Kane since the offseason began and still does today. Colorado projects to have four new faces in their middle six next season (Ross Colton, Jonathan Drouin, Ryan Johansen, and Miles Wood), but their scoring depth remains rather thin. Few would argue Kane is anywhere close to his prime at this stage in his career, especially coming off hip surgery, but he could still allow the team to reliably let Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen drive the top two lines separately. Playing alongside MacKinnon could also very well jumpstart Kane’s production to the point where he’s providing rather immense value on what’s sure to be an already affordable contract.

As things stand, Colorado also has the most favorable salary cap situation out of the three major contenders Pagnotta mentioned. They’re projected to have $2.025MM in cap space with captain Gabriel Landeskog on long-term injured reserve, per CapFriendly. Meanwhile, the Stars and Islanders are both between $300K and $500K over the $83.5MM Upper Limit and will need to run a 22-player roster to be compliant, at least to start the season, assuming no further moves are made.

It’s hard to imagine a fit for Kane in Dallas, too. Their top nine is truly stacked, boasting one of the best lines in hockey followed by a combination of players like Jamie Benn, Matt Duchene, Wyatt Johnston, and Tyler Seguin occupying lines 2 and 3. While Kane may be a true upgrade on someone like Evgenii Dadonov, Dallas signed Dadonov to a two-year, $2.25MM AAV extension this offseason. That’s not money usually given to a player slated for a fourth-line role, especially for someone who relies on point production to maintain efficacy.

The Islanders would make much more sense from a roster construction standpoint if they can make the money work. Wingers like Pierre Engvall and Kyle Palmieri are fine middle-six wingers, but they’re not ideal second-line flanks for a team still boasting championship aspirations with Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat and Ilya Sorokin locked in for the long haul to rather hefty deals.

Regarding Boston, Kane may not be the top-six center they so desperately need, but he’d be a gigantic boon to a middle-six wing group that now looks awfully thin outside of Jake DeBrusk. Boston signed another veteran, James van Riemsdyk, to hopefully add a solid net-front punch, but after posting just 29 points in 61 games last season, expectations shouldn’t be high for the 34-year-old to be a high-end point-producing factor on the second or third line.

What may complicate fitting a contract for Kane under the cap is his lack of eligibility for performance bonuses. He’s still a year away from being eligible for a 35+ contract containing performance bonuses, and he didn’t miss significant time in-season with the hip injury. It removes the option for a team to give Kane a lower cap hit and compensate him more in performance bonuses, allowing them to deal with the after-effects in 2024-25 if they can’t fit the bonuses under their year-end cap hit.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Russian Ice Hockey Federation Appeals Ivan Fedotov Ruling

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Earlier this week, the IIHF issued its ruling on Flyers goaltender Ivan Fedotov, stating that the tolled contract with Philadelphia is the one that is valid, not the two-year agreement he recently signed with CSKA Moscow of the KHL.  Not surprisingly, Victoria Kravchenko of Sport-Express relays that the Russian Ice Hockey Federation has officially appealed the ruling, submitting it on Friday.

Fedotov originally signed a one-year contract with Philadelphia for the 2022-23 campaign but then was told that he needed to fulfill his one year of mandatory military service which he has now completed.  Philadelphia’s assertion is that since their original deal is still valid since it was tolled, the 26-year-old should be suiting up for them next season.

The IIHF’s ruling clearly saw it that way as they suspended Fedotov from appearing in any “official national and international games during playing periods” from September 1, 2023, through December 31, 2023.  Meanwhile, CSKA also received a significant sanction as they are now prohibited from making any international transfers for one year until August 10, 2024.  CSKA has since stated that they believe the IIHF’s ruling was biased.

The appeal actually goes against what Fedotov’s agent J.P. Barry indicated late last month to TSN’s Darren Dreger (Twitter link) when he issued a statement saying that Fedotov would abide by the ruling whichever way it went.  As it turns out, Fedotov suited up for CSKA today in preseason action which doesn’t qualify as international games under the IIHF’s ruling.  Clearly, even with the IIHF’s ruling in Philadelphia’s favor, this file is far from being settled.

Atlantic Notes: Maple Leafs, Veleno, Red Wings

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The Penguins have been linked recently to free agent winger Tomas Tatar but the belief is their preference, for now, would be a PTO invite rather than a guaranteed contract.  In a recent appearance on the NHL Network (video link), David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period also suggested that the Maple Leafs could be interested in a tryout agreement with the veteran.  Tatar is one of the top remaining free agents left on the market and is coming off a 20-goal, 48-point season and is believed to be seeking at least a two-year deal that clearly hasn’t materialized just yet.  Toronto is already in a spot where they need to clear some money even with Jake Muzzin and Matt Murray LTIR-bound so while Tatar fits for them on paper, it’s hard to see a full-season fit as things stand which might not make them Tatar’s best option if he does indeed have to go the PTO route.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic:

  • Red Wings center Joe Veleno is Detroit’s remaining restricted free agent. He recently spoke with RDS’ Jean-Christophe Bertrand and noted that discussions remain ongoing and that the hope is to have an agreement in place soon.  The 23-year-old had 20 points in 81 games last season, his first full-time campaign at the top level.  A bridge contract is the likely outcome for the two sides but those deals can range between one and three years with a decent-sized range money-wise within those options.  No matter how long Veleno’s next deal is, he will be arbitration-eligible when it expires.
  • Still with Detroit, MLive’s Ansar Khan points out just how much the roster has changed under GM Steve Yzerman. Of the players that appear likely to be on the opening-night roster for the Red Wings, just four were part of the organization prior to Yzerman’s arrival in April 2019 – Veleno, Dylan Larkin, Michael Rasmussen, and Jonatan Berggren.  Despite the turnover, Detroit hasn’t been able to snap its playoff drought which now stands at seven seasons but with several additions in recent weeks, they are better-positioned to try to take a run at a Wild Card spot in 2023-24.

Jets Re-Sign Logan Stanley

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The Jets have reached an agreement on a new deal with one of their remaining restricted free agents.  They announced that they’ve re-signed defenseman Logan Stanley to a one-year contract.  The one-way deal will pay him $1MM and matches what his qualifying offer was back in June.

The 25-year-old was a first-round pick by Winnipeg back in 2016 (18th overall) with the team hoping that his 6’7 stature could make him a force on their back end.  While Stanley has shown flashes of being an impact player, he hasn’t been able to do that consistently at this point in his career.

Last season was a tough one on multiple fronts for Stanley.  He missed a total of 40 games due to a pair of lower-body injuries and when he was healthy, he struggled to get into the lineup.  The end result was just 19 appearances during the regular season, the lowest of his three-year career.  In those games, Stanley had just three points along with 44 hits while logging less than 14 minutes a night.  In the playoffs, Stanley got into just one contest, playing less than nine minutes in total.

Along the way, Stanley requested a trade, one that has yet to be granted.  The challenge for Winnipeg in terms of extracting value for Stanley is that at this stage of his career (spanning 114 games), he simply hasn’t shown enough to be counted on as a full-time top-six blueliner.  GM Kevin Cheveldayoff won’t want to give Stanley away as the trade value for a depth defender isn’t particularly high while on the flip side, an acquiring team won’t want to pay a higher asking price for someone who hasn’t yet landed a full-time lineup spot yet.

Unfortunately for Stanley, his situation hasn’t changed much over the summer as Winnipeg’s back end hasn’t changed.  If nothing else, it might have gotten more crowded with Declan Chisholm (their other remaining RFA) now waiver-eligible while Ville Heinola (who also has made it known he’d welcome a change of scenery) also in the mix.  At the moment, Stanley will likely be battling for the sixth or seventh spot on the depth chart which puts him exactly where he was a year ago.

Stanley will once again be a restricted free agent next summer with a $1MM qualifier.  He’ll have arbitration rights at that time as well, something he elected not to exercise this time around, a decision likely made with the hopes that it might help facilitate a trade.  If he’s still around next summer, it’ll be interesting to see if he takes that route if nothing changes for him in the coming months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Mailbag: Goaltending, Surprise Impact Player, Dubois, Central, Stars, Cristall

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the increasing willingness to have a three-goalie system, how the Central Division could shake out this coming season, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag or watch for it in our final one from this set of questions.

Grocery stick: How do teams see the goalie situation right now? We’ve seen the Golden Knights win the Stanley Cup with Hill, Brossoit, and Thompson. The Panthers also relied on three different goalies in different stages of the season, reaching the Final.

Are teams trying to re-create a three-goalie situation on purpose now? How does a #3 goalkeeper stay match ready if he is not waivers exempt? Do teams need “timely” injuries to make a three-goalie rotation work? And what teams could go for a three-goalie rotation this season?

I don’t think teams are necessarily aiming for a three-goalie rotation by design.  Vegas was forced into that with injuries while Florida got to that point with Spencer Knight needing to take a leave of absence (and Sergei Bobrovsky really struggling for a time).  Truly, neither of those teams really had a three-man rotation either; only two were healthy and/or available for the majority of the season.

You note the issue with keeping that third-stringer fresh which is why most teams don’t see it as a viable long-term option.  After a few weeks, they’re asking that goalie to take a conditioning assignment to the AHL to stay fresh.  But that can only be done twice in a season and not all players agree to the request.  If a team tries to play three goalies more evenly, no one will be happy with their playing time.  As you termed it, timely injuries is the way to really make it work.

I think what we’ve seen over the last couple of years is teams placing a higher level of importance on who their third-stringer is.  Now, it’s not just a long-time AHL veteran that’s content to come up and sit on the bench for a few weeks if someone goes down; teams are looking for someone that can come in and play.  I wouldn’t necessarily classify that as a true three-goalie situation though.

One team that I think will go that route is Carolina.  Pyotr Kochetkov is still waiver-exempt for one more year and I think the Hurricanes will try to give him a bunch of starts in the AHL and then spot him some NHL action when they have an open roster spot and want to give one of Frederik Andersen or Antti Raanta a night off.  (Although, with their injury history, there may very well be other opportunities on top of that.)

If Philadelphia starts Samuel Ersson in the minors, they could be another team in that situation.  Maybe Dustin Wolf gets some spot starts here and there in Calgary and if Alex Stalock beats out Lukas Dostal in Anaheim, Dostal could still see some NHL appearances spotted in.  In each of these situations, it’s a waiver-exempt goalie that’s part of the future in that situation, not a proven veteran.  That’s where the three-goalie structure by design makes the most sense.

Nha Trang: Heh, it’s time for my annual question now: who’s the guy who comes from out of nowhere to be a serious impact player this season?

Well, last year’s pick didn’t go quite as well as my one from the year before (Tage Thompson) although Taylor Raddysh hit 20 goals with Chicago in 2022-23 which isn’t bad for someone who had a sparing role with Tampa Bay for most of 2021-22.

Last year, I put in a self-imposed criterion that a player couldn’t be in the top 300 in scoring.  Otherwise, that player wouldn’t exactly be coming out of nowhere.  That takes some viable candidates off the table and certainly increases the level of difficulty of this question.

I’m going to go with Boston’s Morgan Geekie.  Here’s a player that only has 22 career goals to his name over parts of four NHL seasons although only two of those have been in a regular role.  Both of those campaigns were with Seattle where he spent a lot of time on the fourth line.  That shouldn’t be the case in Boston.

Due to the retirements of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, the Bruins don’t exactly have great depth down the middle.  At the moment, Geekie projects as their third-line center which is already a step up.  He was a scorer in the WHL.  He has 93 points in 130 AHL games which isn’t too shabby by any stretch.  I could see him making a push for 20 goals next season which would be great production from someone in the bottom six that has yet to reach the double-digit mark in a single season.  Couple that with him generally being on the happy side of 50% at the faceoff dot and him showing last year that he can cover some time on the penalty kill and Geekie could wind up being a pretty impactful player for Boston.

If you want a couple of real longshot wild cards, I’ll suggest San Jose’s Jacob Peterson and Arizona’s Michael Carcone.  Peterson didn’t look out of place in a top-six role with the Sharks down the stretch after spending most of the year in the minors.  If he makes the team in that role, he could surprise.  Carcone, meanwhile, has lit it up in the AHL but a strong showing at the Worlds with Canada earned him a two-year, one-way deal.  I’m not sure he’s going to score enough to really qualify as a good answer for this question but he could become a capable bottom-six winger at the age of 27 and many years in the minors.

Weasel 3: Honest evaluation of PLD’s chances providing any surplus value on his extension please.

In the short term, I don’t see much of a window for that to happen.  He’s likely to be on the second line for a year or two and those players generally don’t produce enough to provide surplus value on a contract worth $8.5MM per season.  That isn’t to say he won’t have an impact – Dubois definitely will – but I don’t think anyone will be calling his deal a bargain.

Longer term, however, I can see a pathway to surplus value.  If he can up his production to a point per game level while asserting himself more physically, now we’re talking about a center in or around the top 20 at his position with an element that few other middlemen provide.  He’d be a power forward getting paid market value, not the typical premium that power forwards get.  In that sense, then, he’d be providing some surplus value.

The other option to getting positive value on Dubois’ contract is if the Upper Limit really starts to rise.  If we see a few jumps in the cap, salaries around the league will only go up.  If those increases push 60 and 70-point players up to this price point, Dubois could provide some surplus value assuming his production improves following the swap.

At this point, I’m not sure I’d qualify the idea of Dubois providing surplus value to the Kings as probable.  But there are a couple of plausible ways that it could happen.  I don’t think Los Angeles is really expecting that to happen.  If he gives them 60-70 points per season, they’ll be pleased with the contract, even if it is one that winds up being a little overpriced in the end.

blues1967: How do you see the Central shaking out? I think Colorado and Dallas are clear front runners, Arizona and Chicago bring up the rear, and the other four will battle it out in the middle. Not sure who has the advantage between the Blues, Wild, Preds and Jets.

Dallas and Colorado are certainly the class of the division.  Colorado won the division by a point last season but at this point, I’m inclined to hand the early edge to the Stars with the Avs in second.  I don’t expect there to be a third team in that group like Minnesota was last season.

I do, however, lean toward the Wild being the third seed still.  I expect their goaltending to take a step back but I think their offense will be a bit more successful than a year ago when they were 22nd.  That should offset some of the goaltending give-back and keep them in.

As for who the top Wild Card contender might be, I’d go with St. Louis.  I think Jordan Binnington will be better and if not, Joel Hofer can push for more playing time.  Their offensive depth is better than it might seem at first glance and they have one of the better defense groups still.  They could surprise some teams.

Nashville and Winnipeg have definitely taken steps back.  On paper, the Jets could very well push for the third seed still but with a pair of core veterans on expiring deals, it’s hardly a guarantee they’re there for the entire season.  Meanwhile, I expect that the Predators are going to struggle to score in a big way.  Right now, I could be convinced to put Arizona ahead of them and then Chicago will likely be at the bottom even with Connor Bedard in the fold.

jacl: The Stars win the Stanley Cup this year. Am I right or am I right? I think Johnston gets 35 goals easily. They have a lot of good young talent that should be ready for a role on the team.

Generally speaking, with questions about a team or the field, I’ll go with the field.  But Dallas is a legitimate contender, I’ll go that far.  Their attack is quite deep (deep enough that makes me think Wyatt Johnston isn’t going to check in quite that high in goals in his sophomore season) so they should be near the top of the conference in that department.  Jake Oettinger is a high-end goaltender.  That’s two of the three they’re in really good shape in.

The back end is where I’m still concerned, however.  It was a weak spot at times last year and they’ve done nothing of much consequence.  Gavin Bayreuther replaced Colin Miller and well, that’s it.  They’re clearly banking on Thomas Harley stepping into a key full-time role and Nils Lundkvist taking a big step forward.  It’s possible that both happen but that’s certainly on the optimistic side.

The reality is that behind Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell, things thin out quickly.  It was a problem in the playoffs when Ryan Suter was asked to play big minutes, a role he’s not suited for at the age of 38.  If GM Jim Nill can find a way to add an impact top-four defender, that just might be the final piece of the puzzle to give a real shot at going all the way.  With their cap situation, that move won’t be coming for a while.

KRB: The Capitals may have got the steal of the draft in #40 pick Andrew Cristall. And I’ll guess that he plays in the NHL sooner, rather than later. The reason why is because at the start of the 2024-25 season, he’ll be 19, too young for the AHL, but probably too good for the WHL. So he’s a Cap then. Thoughts?

I was surprised to see Cristall slip that deep in the draft as he felt like a worthwhile gamble in the 20s for a team looking to take a big swing on a player who, if all pans out, could be a quality top-six NHL winger.  I liked that pick for them a lot.  But he’s undersized and there are questions about how his game will translate to the pros.  Some smaller players find a way to make a mark but a lot don’t.

I get your point about Washington possibly not wanting to send Cristall back for his 19-year-old season as he won’t have much left to show at the major junior level.  But is he going to be able to hold down at least a third-line spot with the Capitals that season?  (I wouldn’t want any junior-aged prospect toiling away on the fourth line from a development standpoint.)  That I’m not so sure about.  I think they will want his defensive game to get a lot better so that Cristall isn’t exploited in that regard in the NHL.  Can that level of improvement happen in the WHL?  It’s possible but not probable as Kelowna will be wanting him to focus on his offense, not so much the defense.

There isn’t a great solution.  Washington I’m sure would love to send Cristall to the AHL in 2024-25 but the CHL agreement isn’t going away anytime soon.  Between the NHL and WHL, I think they’ll play it safe and ultimately send him back down and then get him to Hershey the following year.

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