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2009 NHL Draft Take Two: Twelfth Overall

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.” Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2009 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now. Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

The results of our redraft so far are as follows, with their original draft position in parentheses:

1st Overall:  Victor Hedman, New York Islanders (2)
2nd Overall: John Tavares, Tampa Bay Lightning (1)
3rd Overall: Ryan O’Reilly, Colorado Avalanche (33)
4th Overall: Matt Duchene, Atlanta Thrashers (3)
5th Overall: Chris Kreider, Los Angeles Kings (19)
6th Overall: Nazem Kadri, Phoenix Coyotes (7)
7th Overall:  Mattias Ekholm, Toronto Maple Leafs (102)
8th Overall: Evander Kane, Dallas Stars (4)
9th Overall: Brayden Schenn, Ottawa Senators (5)
10th Overall: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Edmonton Oilers (6)
11th Overall: Ryan Ellis, Nashville Predators (11)

The Nashville Predators retain their original selection at 11th overall by the slimmest of margins in our reader poll. At the time of writing, Ellis edged out Dmitry Orlov by just one vote and earned just 22.6% of the total vote in one of the most wide-open polling sessions thus far in this series.

Drafted out of OHL Windsor, Ellis would remain in junior hockey for two more seasons to great success, recording a phenomenal 100 points in 58 games from the point in the 2010-11 campaign, winning CHL Defenseman of the Year and Player of the Year honors. He turned pro the following year, splitting the season between Nashville and AHL Milwaukee but losing his rookie designation by playing 32 games. In fact, Ellis wouldn’t become a full-time fixture in the Nashville lineup until the 2013-14 campaign, and it would be another few years until he cemented himself as a top-four fixture.

He did eventually get there, though, averaging over 20 minutes per game for the first time as a 25-year-old in the 2015-16 season. Once he did, however, he solidified himself as a premier two-way talent, routinely putting himself on pace for at least 40 points in a full season and logging significant time on both special teams units. He played a large role in Nashville’s run to the 2017 Stanley Cup Final, skating 23:26 per game and recording 13 points in 22 contests and a +4 rating.

Unfortunately, Ellis would run into significant injury trouble in the campaigns that followed. While Nashville captured the President’s Trophy in 2018 thanks to a spectacular 117-point campaign, Ellis was only available for the latter half of the campaign after missing the first 38 games due to a knee injury. He would play a full 82 games in 2018-19, but he missed 20 games with an upper-body injury in both 2019-20 and 2020-21 before they traded him to the Philadelphia Flyers the following summer. Ellis’ injury troubles, now well-documented, continued with the Flyers – after recording five points through his first four games, he exited the lineup with an injury later revealed to affect his psoas muscle. He has not played since, and Flyers president of hockey operations Keith Jones doesn’t believe he’ll ever return.

Because of that, Ellis’ 566 career NHL games aren’t all that much compared to his 2009 peers. Still, his 275 career points rank sixth among defenders from the draft class, and his +116 career plus-minus rating is fourth among all 2009-drafted skaters.

Now, after picking Hedman first overall in our redraft, the Islanders are on the clock again with the 12th overall pick, one they acquired from the Minnesota Wild on draft day after a series of pick swaps involving the Columbus Blue Jackets. They selected defenseman Calvin de Haan, who’s gone on to have a respectable NHL career and is still active, but he likely won’t be the pick in our next reader poll. Which brings us to the question: out of the candidates remaining, who would you award to the Islanders at 12th overall in our 2009 redraft? Vote in our poll below:

If you can’t access our poll above, click here to vote.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Andrew Ladd Announces Retirement

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1001-game NHL veteran Andrew Ladd announced his retirement today on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. Ladd finishes an NHL career that began in the 2005-06 season after he was made the fourth overall pick of the Carolina Hurricanes at the 2004 draft.

Ladd had an undoubtedly impressive NHL career. He’s a two-time Stanley Cup champion, winning it as a rookie with Carolina and in 2010 with the Chicago Blackhawks.

Ladd didn’t quite live up to the promise of his selection in Carolina, but quickly changed that narrative after arriving in Chicago.

With the Blackhawks, Ladd broke out as a top-six forward by scoring 49 points in 2008-09.

But while he had his breakout in Chicago and won a Stanley Cup there, it was Ladd’s trade to the then-Atlanta Thrashers that truly led to his ascent to NHL stardom.

Ladd was immediately named captain of the Thrashers and instantly reached new offensive heights. He scored 29 goals and 59 points, beginning a run of seven consecutive seasons where he scored 20 goals or at a 20-plus goal pace.

It was in Winnipeg where Ladd made his biggest mark, leading the newly relocated franchise as its first captain. He led them to the playoffs for the first time since their relocation, and in his last full season in Winnipeg Ladd had a career-high 62 points. Ladd even dabbled in international play during his time captaining the Jets, representing Canada at three IIHF Men’s World Championships.

Ladd returned to the Blackhawks for their 2016 Stanley Cup push, though the team ultimately fell short and Ladd hit unrestricted free agency. That was undoubtedly the turning point of his career, as Ladd signed an ill-fated $5.5MM AAV contract with the New York Islanders that stretched through the 2022-23 season. Ladd did manage 23 goals in his first season on Long Island, but only added eight assists.

That would be the most productive year in his time in New York, by far. His goal total dropped to 12 the following year, and in 2018-19 Ladd only managed to play 26 games. Ladd’s years of intense physical play, the things that made him such a valuable power forward in his prime, had taken its toll on Ladd’s body. The wear and tear he’d sustained over the years became more difficult to ignore, and Ladd could only manage sporadic availability.

By 2019-20, Ladd was outside the Islanders’ NHL plans, and playing more and more time in the AHL with the Islanders’ affiliate in Bridgeport. He was dealt in a cap-clearing trade to the Arizona Coyotes for 2021-22, where he managed to play in 51 games and finally crossed the 1,000 game plateau. Last season, Ladd failed his physical and was unable to suit up for the Coyotes, effectively ending his career one year before his contract was set to expire.

Now Ladd has officially retired, and he leaves behind a highly respectable NHL career. While the difficulties he faced with injuries and inconsistency, as well as his diminished physical tools in his final few years may have clouded people’s impressions of Ladd, he was undoubtedly a valuable power forward in his prime. We at PHR wish Ladd the best for whatever lays ahead of him now that his playing days have concluded.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Josh Archibald Clears Unconditional Waivers; Contract Terminated

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09/10/23: According to TSN’s Chris Johnston, Archibald has cleared unconditional waivers and has had his contract terminated.

09/09/23: After signing Josh Archibald back in July, his time with the Lightning has come to an end.  The team announced today that they have placed the winger on waivers today for the purpose of terminating his contract.  GM Julien BriseBois released the following statement:

Yesterday, I was informed by Josh’s agent, and by Josh himself in a subsequent conversation, that he was not planning on playing hockey for the time being and that he would not be reporting to training camp. Consequently, Josh was placed on unconditional waivers earlier today for the purpose of terminating his contract.

The 30-year-old spent last season with Pittsburgh, primarily playing on their fourth line.  Archibald got into 62 games with the Penguins, picking up six goals and six assists while averaging just shy of ten minutes per night.  Looking to add to their toughness, Tampa Bay signed Archibald to a two-year deal that carried a cap hit of $800K along with a 16-team no-trade clause.  To create the cap room to fit him in, they flipped Pat Maroon with partial retention to Minnesota, a move that freed up precisely $800K.

However, it appears that Archibald had a change of heart and has now decided against playing this season altogether according to Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link).  Tampa Bay could have elected to suspend Archibald without pay which would have kept him on their reserve list if he had a change of heart but instead, they’re parting ways altogether, a move that opens up a contract slot, one they quickly utilized to sign Tyler Motte to a one-year, $800K deal.

Archibald’s NHL career stands at 305 games played over eight seasons with Pittsburgh (two separate stints), Arizona, and Edmonton.  He has 83 points and 855 hits in those appearances but for now, at least, those totals won’t be going any higher.

Latest On Philip Broberg

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When the Edmonton Oilers selected Swedish defenseman Philip Broberg with the eighth overall pick at the 2019 draft, they likely had hopes that by 2023, he’d be a notable part of their NHL roster. Numerous players selected after Broberg have gone on to become legitimate difference-makers in the NHL, such as Trevor Zegras, who the Oilers’ division rival Anaheim Ducks selected with the very next pick.

To be fair to the Oilers, Broberg was always more of a project pick even at the time. Broberg is a gifted skater with impressive physical tools, and the hope was that those tools would eventually be developed into the more polished skillset of an elite NHL defenseman.

That hasn’t happened yet, though. Broberg spent two seasons after he was drafted playing pro hockey in the SHL for Skellefteå AIK and represented Sweden in a big role at the IIHF World Junior Championships both years. He made his North American debut in 2021-22, splitting time between the NHL with Edmonton and the AHL with the Bakersfield Condors.

This past season, Broberg spent most of his time in the NHL, skating in 46 games for the Oilers. He didn’t play a huge role, averaging just 12:36 TOI per game, although he did get a look on the penalty kill. Going into next season, the hope is that Broberg, now 22, will emerge as an impact NHLer just as so many from his 2019 draft class already have.

The Athletic’s Alan Mitchell writes that “there’s plenty of chatter from management” in Edmonton that Broberg will be “playing more this year,” with the implication being that Broberg will eventually replace incumbent top-four veterans Cody Ceci or Brett Kulak. (subscription link)

Kulak appears the likelier of the two to end up replaced in role by Broberg, simply because he’s a left-shot blueliner (like Broberg) while Ceci plays on the right side. Broberg has played on either side but one would think Broberg would reach his maximum comfort in the NHL playing on his strong side.

The fate of Broberg this season is of great importance to the Oilers, not just from a developmental perspective but also from a financial one. Salary cap constraints are likely to force the Oilers into carrying less than the maximum of 23 players on their active roster during the season. Broberg costs just $863k against the cap, while Kulak’s contract earns him $2.75MM per year through 2025-26.

Should Broberg find a way to finally take the next step in the NHL and seize a top-four role from Kulak, the Oilers could consider dealing the veteran to receive much-needed cap savings. But whether or not he actually takes that needed next step is still to be seen, and it could make Broberg one of the more intriguing players to watch in the preseason and early parts of the regular season.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Latest On Alex DeBrincat

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On paper, it seemed somewhat curious that Detroit Red Wings forward Alex DeBrincat would forgo a likely highly lucrative contract extension with the Ottawa Senators in order to play elsewhere. But not long after DeBrincat concluded his season in Canada’s capital, it became clear that the 2022-23 campaign would be DeBrincat’s only one in Ottawa.

Yesterday, Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch shed some light on why DeBrincat decided to push for an exit from the Senators, writing: “sources say [DeBrincat] didn’t like his role as a second-line winger” behind Senators captain and face of the franchise Brady Tkachuk.

It’s not difficult to see why, going into the 2022-23 season, DeBrincat may have expected to receive top-line billing in Ottawa. The Senators surrendered the seventh-overall pick alongside second and third-round selections to acquire DeBrincat, who was coming off of a 41-goal, 78-point season.

Those numbers exceeded Tkachuk’s from 2021-22 (30 goals, 67 points) by a fair margin, and it’s understandable that DeBrincat may have viewed himself as the best fit for the coveted left wing spot next to number-one center Tim Stützle.

That didn’t happen, though, and DeBrincat ended up falling behind Tkachuk both on the depth chart and in terms of production. Although DeBrincat actually averaged slightly higher ice time per game than Tkachuk, Tkachuk is the one who got the bulk of time next to Stützle (a breakout number-one center) on the team’s first line.

According to Natural Stat Trick, Stützle had DeBrincat as his left-wing running mate for a total of 97:49 TOI and had Tkachuk in that role for 915:25 TOI in total. The trio only played 30:58 TOI together.

Part of the success DeBrincat had in Chicago was due to the fact that he got to play next to one of the most talented offensive generators in recent NHL history, Patrick Kane. This isn’t to say that DeBrincat isn’t a capable offensive generator in his own right, (one doesn’t hit 40 goals multiple times in a career without being an elite talent in his own right) just to note that DeBrincat is clearly at his best when his lethal finishing abilities are fed into by a strong playmaking partner.

Without someone of those capabilities to play next to full-time, DeBrincat’s production declined, and he scored 27 goals and 66 points. With Josh Norris locked in as the Senators’ second-line center thanks to a $7.95MM AAV contract extension through 2029-30, DeBrincat was staring down a future playing next to Norris were he to sign a long-term extension in Ottawa.

Norris is a quality player who scored 35 goals in 2021-22, but not someone regarded as a high-end playmaker and passer. With Tkachuk seemingly untouchable as Stützle’s running mate and the Senators’ first-line left winger, it’s unsurprising that DeBrincat began to more heavily consider a future elsewhere.

Detroit is where DeBrincat’s future, at least for the next few seasons, lies. There doesn’t appear to be a top-end playmaker on the Red Wings’ roster who can compare to Stützle, but captain Dylan Larkin (79 points last season) isn’t too far behind. But looking ahead to training camp and the preseason, it’s imperative that the Red Wings find a way to make a DeBrincat – Larkin pairing work.

Neither Andrew Copp or J.T. Compher profile as the type of play-driving passer that DeBrincat has excelled with in the past, so for DeBrincat to be able to reach the heights in Detroit that he reached in Chicago, he’ll likely need what he couldn’t have in Ottawa: a firm grip on the first-line left winger job next to his team’s number-one center.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Summer Synopsis: New Jersey Devils

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Last season was something of a dream for the New Jersey Devils and their fans. Almost immediately after the Devils began play, chants calling for the firing of head coach Lindy Ruff rained down at the Prudential Center. The Devils began the season with two consecutive losses, and after years of rebuilding many fans felt a new coach in charge would be necessary to finally lift the club out of the doldrums of their rebuild.

By the end of the regular season, though, such a change proved unneeded. Ruff guided the Devils to a 52-22-8 record, registering the third-most standings points in the entire NHL. He oversaw breakout performances for numerous young Devils, including face of the franchise Jack Hughes (99 points) captain Nico Hischier (80 points, runner-up for the Selke Trophy), and sophomore Dawson Mercer (27 goals, 56 points).

The Devils now look like an up-and-coming juggernaut franchise, a club loaded with high-end youngsters and valuable veteran talent. Despite it being the first playoff run for many of the Devils’ players, the team even showcased some playoff poise, coming back from a 2-0 series deficit to eliminate their arch-rival New York Rangers in a Game Seven. The time is now for New Jersey to join the ranks of the NHL’s elite, and their offseason reflected such lofty ambitions.

Draft

2-58: F Lenni Hämeenaho, Pori (Liiga)
4-122: F Cam Squires, Cape Breton (QMJHL)
5-154: D Chase Cheslock, Omaha (USHL)
6-164: F Cole Brown, Hamilton (OHL)
6-186: D Daniil Karpovich, D, Yekaterinburg (MHL)

As a result of the Devils’ aggressiveness in acquiring NHL-ready talent this past season (namely with their addition of Timo Meier from the San Jose Sharks) the team was left without a first-round pick for the first time since 2013. That’s not exactly an issue for New Jersey, though, as the team made five first-round selections between the 2020 and 2021 drafts and made the second overall pick at the 2022 draft. The Devils were due for a leaner draft class, though that’s not to say they left this year’s exercise in Nashville empty-handed

Hämeenaho was a shrewd pick late in the second round. For the Devils to be able to compete on a consistent basis with their core locked into expensive deals, they’ll need their front office and development staff to deliver a consistent pipeline of NHL talent available on entry-level contracts. Hämeenaho isn’t regarded as a high-upside dice roll, instead widely considered a safe bet to have a long professional career.

The versatile forward scored an impressive 21 points in full-time duty playing for Ässät in the Finnish Liiga, holding his own against pro players in one of the best leagues outside the NHL. After another season spent overseas in Pori, Hämeenaho could become one of the players outside the 2023 first round who most quickly earns his first NHL game.

In the middle rounds, the Devils took a point-per-game major junior forward in Squires and a toolsy right-shot defensive project in Cheslock, both reasonable picks in those middle rounds. In the sixth round, the Devils reached back into the CHL to grab Brown, who scored 42 points for the Hamilton Bulldogs last season, as well as Karpovich, a rangy Russian blueliner.

Trade Acquisitions

F Tyler Toffoli (from Calgary)
D Colin Miller (from Dallas)
F Shane Bowers (from Boston)

The big-name addition here is that of Toffoli, acquired from the Calgary Flames for the reasonable price of a third-round pick and Yegor Sharangovich. Toffoli, 31, has one year left on his deal at an affordable $4.25MM cap hit and should be an instant impact player for the Devils.

A 2014 Stanley Cup champion, Toffoli not only offers strong offensive production to the Devils (34 goals, 73 points last season) he also has a wealth of playoff experience to draw on to help guide this young Devils team.

Although Toffoli’s lackluster skating may make it difficult for him to keep up in the Devils’ high-flying offensive attack, he remains one of the league’s more lethal finishers and smarter offensive creators. He’s likely to land on a scoring line centered by either Hughes or Hischier, and if that ends up happening he stands a strong chance to repeat last season’s career-best performance.

Miller is a lower-profile addition but a solid one nonetheless by Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald. Miller was the Dallas Stars’ number-five defenseman last season, averaging 16:46 TOI per game. He didn’t factor into the mix on special teams as he’s done at times earlier in his career, and this average ice time was Miller’s lowest since his first two seasons in the NHL. That being said, even though Miller isn’t the same defenseman anymore that scored 41 points as a member of the Vegas Golden Knights, he can still capably endure regular NHL minutes and he’ll provide depth to the right side of the Devils’ blueline.

While the Devils are undoubtedly hoping that 2022 second overall pick Šimon Nemec will make a push for a spot in Ruff’s opening-night lineup, their addition of Miller means Nemec will have to outplay an experienced NHL blueliner in order to win a job.

Key UFA Signings

F Tomáš Nosek (one year, $1MM)
D Cal Foote (one year, $800k)*
F Chris Tierney (one year, $775k)*
F Justin Dowling (two years, $1.55MM)*
G Erik Källgren (one year, $775k)*
F Kyle Criscuolo (one year, $775k)*

*-denotes two-way contract

The Devils spent most of their available cap space this summer on re-signing their star restricted free agents as well as adding more expensive players via trade. This thinned out Fitzgerald’s wallet when it came time to shop for UFAs, and the result is a collection of Devils signings meant to bolster the organization’s depth rather than radically alter their competitive chances.

As the headline signing of this batch of UFA additions, Nosek might not drive up ticket sales, but he will help contribute to winning hockey. He centered the fourth line of a record-setting Boston Bruins team, and plays a reliable, consistent two-way game. He was a regular face on the NHL’s best short-handed unit for the Bruins, and scored a career-high 18 points in 66 games.

Perhaps most impressively, the team employing Nosek as a full-time player has never missed the playoffs so far in his professional career, even dating back to Nosek’s days in the Czech league.

He has 52 NHL postseason contests on his resume, including a run to the Stanley Cup Final in 2018 and a stellar Calder Cup championship run in 2017.

Despite his relatively modest box score number, Nosek is a highly respectable player and someone who can easily provide surplus value on a $1MM one-year investment. With Nosek added to a center corps that already boasts Hughes, Hischier, Erik Haula, and Michael McLeod, one could argue that the Devils have the most talented and deepest set of centers in the entire NHL.

Beyond Nosek, the rest of the signings are more meant to improve the Devils’ overall depth than directly impact the NHL roster. Foote is a former top prospect who will compete with Kevin Bahl for the third-pairing left-shot defensive job, Tierney is an experienced pivot who will look to claim a regular bottom-six role at training camp, and Källgren is a well-traveled netminder who is likely to split time with Nico Daws in the AHL.

Key RFA Re-Signings

F Timo Meier (eight years, $70.4MM)
F Jesper Bratt (eight years, $63MM)
D Kevin Bahl (two years, $4.1MM)

The extensions of Meier and Bratt are the two most significant moves the Devils made this past summer. Meier, 26, came at an expensive price tag ($8.8MM AAV) but is one of the more coveted talents in the NHL. The Swiss international is a skilled power forward who got off to a relatively slow start in New Jersey but nonetheless finished with 66 points last season.

He’s scored 75 goals across the past two campaigns, and even though his playoff production was poor (four points in 12 games) he showed he could still make an impact for New Jersey through his physicality and aggressiveness. He’ll be an integral part of the Devils’ offensive attack for years to come.

As for Bratt, he’s coming across a second consecutive 73-point campaign. His playoff production (six points in 12 games) leaves some worry that his slender frame and more perimeter-focused game might not be as effective in the playoffs, though his star status in the regular season is undeniable. Bratt is a genuine offensive creator and at a sub-$8MM cap hit he has the potential to provide the Devils with serious surplus value for their eight-year investment.

Bahl, 23, signed a notably smaller contract than the other two, reflective of his status as more of a complementary NHL player rather than a play-driving star. He’s a big, physical defenseman who saw a more regular NHL role with the Devils as the season wore on. He’s arguably the Devils’ most fearsome defenseman when it comes to physicality, and this contract should allow him to continue establishing himself as an NHL regular in New Jersey.

Key Departures

F Yegor Sharangovich (traded to Calgary)
F Tomáš Tatar (remains a free agent)
F Miles Wood (six years, $15MM, Colorado)
D Ryan Graves (six years, $27MM, Pittsburgh)
D Damon Severson (sign-and-trade to Columbus)
D Reilly Walsh (traded to Boston)
G Mackenzie Blackwood (traded to San Jose)

The Devils lost quite a bit of veteran talent this offseason, starting with a pair of minutes-eating veteran blueliners in Severson and Graves. While the Devils are hopeful that the integration of star young defensemen such as Luke Hughes and Nemec will make up for these subtractions, losing Graves’ steady top-four minutes and Severson’s offensive production will likely hurt in the immediate term.

Up front, the biggest Devils’ loss is of Tatar, who the team replaced with the addition of Toffoli. Tatar was a capable regular-season scorer in New Jersey, and helped the team achieve the goal of exiting their rebuilding phase by reaching the playoffs. His contributions to that achievement should be lauded.

But Tatar’s longstanding issues in the playoffs (he has just 13 points in 52 career postseason contests) reintroduced themselves in the Devils’ postseason trip, likely paving the way for his exit from New Jersey.

Now that the Devils are primarily fixated on playoff success, Tatar’s unique case as a regular season contributor but playoff no-show was something team management likely could no longer accept.

So they went out and acquired a proven Stanley Cup champion and playoff contributor, leaving Tatar to potentially sign with a team in a similar position to where New Jersey was two years ago, willing to accept production exclusively in the regular season in an effort to end an extended playoff drought.

In Wood, the Devils have lost an energetic bottom-six forward and a valuable veteran leader. He’s someone the Devils would have likely preferred to keep, but the tighter cap constraints the team has been working with made it impossible for them to compete with the lucrative offer he received from the Avalanche.

In net, the Devils lost Blackwood via a trade with the Sharks, giving the goalie a fresh start in San Jose. The Devils may have still believed in the upside Blackwood at times flashed in New Jersey, but with the emergence of Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid it became clear that if Blackwood was going to break out at the NHL level, it likely wouldn’t be with the Devils.

Salary Cap Outlook

There’s no mistaking it, the days of the Devils being able to freely target players for future contending teams are over. The Devils have now made significant investments in a core of young players, and any surplus cap space the team still has will likely be eaten up by future extensions for Mercer, Hughes, and Nemec.

New Jersey’s cap situation does have its benefits, though, as Hughes and Hischier are likely to provide an immense amount of surplus value on their current contracts, especially as the cap goes up. Hughes’ $8MM AAV cap hit was recently matched by the Ottawa Senators’ signing of Jake Sanderson, a promising player but one with just 77 games of NHL experience. Had the Devils waited to extend Hughes, the team wouldn’t be able to lock him into a long-term deal for cheaper than $10MM AAV, at minimum.

When one considers contracts and play at both ends of the ice, Hischier’s $7.25MM cap hit through 2026-27 makes him one of the most valuable assets in hockey. He could end up a multi-time Selke Trophy winner now that Patrice Bergeron is retired, and has scored near a point-per-game rate over the past two seasons. So while the Devils are facing some tight years ahead regarding their salary cap situation, these two franchise pillars are locked into exceptionally team-friendly contracts, contracts that will only grow in surplus value as the cap rises.

Key Questions

Will the Devils get Stanley Cup-caliber goaltending?: Looking up and down their roster, one could definitely make the argument that the Devils have the strongest set of 18 starting skaters in the entire NHL. The flip side of that, though, is that one could also argue that the Devils have the weakest goaltending of any of the Eastern Conference’s playoff contenders.

A year ago, the Devils believed they were just league-average goaltending away from making the postseason, despite missing by a fair margin in 2021-22. They were right, as Vanecek’s mostly average play (great at times, poor at others) powered them to an elite season. But in the playoffs, Vanecek fell apart, and the team’s season was saved by Schmid, a rookie. That tandem is likely going to be good enough for the Devils to have another elite season. But will it be enough for the team to make a run deep into the spring and early summer?

Will the Devils’ veteran departures cost the team, or will young players step up and fill those vacated roles?: As mentioned, the Devils lost quite a bit of veteran talent this summer. In order to keep the franchise from taking a step backward in the standings, young players will need to step up and prove they can handle less sheltered roles at the NHL level. Hughes (Luke), Bahl, and Nemec will need to help compensate for the losses of Graves and Severson.

Fitzgerald recently called Alexander Holtz a future “pillar” of the franchise, the departures of Tatar and Wood give him the opportunity to prove it. They were and are each highly regarded prospects, but will they be able to translate their success at other levels of hockey to the world’s best league?

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Minor Transactions: 09/09/23

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As the start of NHL training camps draws ever closer, the news cycle for the world’s top pro hockey league is beginning to pick up after a slow few weeks. Today saw one of the better UFAs still left on the market finally sign a contract for next season (Tyler Motte, to the Tampa Bay Lightning), and a one-time 40-point scorer and first-round pick land with the Pittsburgh Penguins on a PTO. (Colin White)

Overseas, many of Europe’s top professional hockey teams are still competing in the Champions Hockey League tournament. Five games were played today, highlighted by Skellefteå AIK’s 5-2 road victory against last year’s tournament champions, Tappara Tampere. 2023 17th overall pick Axel Sandin Pellikka led the way with a goal and an assist from the blue line, a notable and encouraging performance for fans of the Detroit Red Wings.

With the season inching closer for many teams across North America and Europe, teams are still adding and subtracting players to prepare for the campaign. As always, we’ll keep track of those moves here.

  • Yesterday, the ECHL’s Cincinnati Cyclones re-signed their leading scorer from the 2022-23 season, Zack Andrusiak. Andrusiak, 25, has found his footing as a star in the ECHL since arriving in The Queen City, scoring a total of 52 goals and 118 points in 97 career games with the club. Before becoming a Cyclone, Andrusiak had struggled in North America’s third-tier league, putting up modest numbers as a member of the Idaho Steelheads and dismal production in one shortened stint with the Orlando Solar Bears. Andrusiak’s heightened form in Cincinnati has drawn the attention of AHL teams, as Andrusiak has earned AHL call-ups with two teams and played in a total of four American league games. This contract extension returns a crucial scorer to Cincinnati’s roster to help them defend their 2022-23 Central Division title.
  • The Omaha Lancers of the USHL have acquired netminder Croix Kochendorfer from the Sioux City Musketeers in a trade, with a draft pick headed to Sioux City in return. Kochendorfer is a 19-year-old goalie prospect who played almost half of the Musketeers’ games last season, posting a .896 save percentage across 30 games. Sioux City looks poised to run with undrafted 2023 prospect Samuel Urban in net, while the Lancers have a more uncertain standing in their crease thanks to the early departure of Michael Hrabal, the recent 38th overall pick who will play at UMass Amherst this fall. Hrabal’s departure combined with this trade gives Kochendorfer a strong opportunity to take on an even greater role in the USHL.
  • In another USHL goalie move, Belarus’ Yan Shostak will continue his development with the Lincoln Stars, heading to play in North America for the first time in his career. The 19-year-old spent last season playing in Russia’s junior league, posting a .929 save percentage in 20 games despite a 4-11-2 record. He is the brother of Konstantin Shostak, the current number-one netminder for Severstal Cherepovets in the KHL. The younger Shostak undoubtedly hopes he’ll reach the heights in pro hockey his brother has achieved, and in order to do so he’ll look to perform well in the USHL with Lincoln.

This page may be updated throughout the day. 

Prospect Notes: Sokolov, Penguins, Reichel

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The issue for Senators restricted free agent Egor Sokolov is the AHL salary portion of what’s expected to be a two-way deal, notes Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch.  The 23-year-old spent most of last year with AHL Belleville where he impressed with 21 goals and 39 assists in 70 games.  Sokolov also got into five games with Ottawa, picking up a goal and an assist.  Sokolov is now waiver-eligible so if he wants a chance to prove his worth to 31 other teams out there, this is a deal that will need to get worked out sooner rather than later.  If he can earn an NHL spot somewhere, the AHL portion of the deal won’t matter but if Sokolov clears waivers, that will be a key part of the contract which is why it’s being haggled over.  He is one of just eight remaining unsigned RFAs league-wide.

Other prospect news around the NHL:

  • A trio of Penguins prospects are dealing with injuries and aren’t expected to play at their upcoming rookie tournament, relays Seth Rorabaugh of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Those players are defensemen Owen Pickering, Nolan Collins, and winger Raivis Ansons.  Pickering is the most notable of the group as Pittsburgh’s first-round pick in 2022 and in theory could have an outside shot at cracking their lineup in camp.  He and Collins are ticketed to return to junior otherwise while Ansons should once again suit up in AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton.  There is no word about the nature of the injuries or how long each player might be out for.
  • Jets prospect Kristian Reichel has changed agencies, joining Octagon per an announcement on Twitter from agent Allan Walsh. The 25-year-old is entering the final season of a two-year, two-way contract and will be a restricted free agent this summer.  Last season, Reichel spent most of the season in the minors, picking up 24 points in 61 games.  He did get into a pair of games with Winnipeg, however, and has 15 career appearances at the top level over the past two seasons.

Penguins Sign Colin White To PTO Agreement

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4:50 PM: The PTO signing of White has now been officially announced by the Penguins.

2:07 PM: The training camp roster continues to grow for Pittsburgh as TVA Sports’ Renaud Lavoie reports (Twitter link) that center Colin White has agreed to a PTO agreement with the Penguins.

The 26-year-old was bought out by Ottawa last spring despite having three years and $15.75MM left on his contract.  He quickly landed with Florida, inking a one-year, $1.2MM deal on the opening day of free agency.  White wound up playing a very limited role with the Panthers last season, getting into 65 regular season games where he played pretty much exclusively on the fourth line.  He was relatively productive in that role, notching eight goals and seven assists despite logging less than 10 minutes a night.

White was a regular in Florida’s lineup for their run to the Stanley Cup Final, playing in all 21 games.  However, his playing time was even more limited at less than eight minutes a night while his production dipped to just two assists without scoring a goal.  While Florida could have retained White’s rights by issuing a $1.2MM qualifying offer in June, they opted not to do so, sending him back into the open market.

White joins winger Austin Wagner plus defensemen Mark Pysyk and Libor Hajek as those entering Pittsburgh’s training camp on tryout agreements.  Having been an NHL regular (when healthy) for the past five years would seemingly give him a leg up but GM Kyle Dubas has already added some extra depth this summer with the likes of Andreas Johnsson, Vinnie Hinostroza, and Rem Pitlick.  One thing is for certain, there is going to be quite a battle for the final few spots with the Penguins and White is the latest to become a part of it.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Minnesota Wild

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Minnesota Wild

Current Cap Hit: $81,856,921 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Brock Faber (two years, $925K)
F Marco Rossi (two years, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Rossi: $850K

Rossi was viewed as a long-term option down the middle when they drafted him ninth overall in 2020 but it hasn’t happened just yet.  His post-draft season saw him battle through a life-threatening heart scare while his first two seasons in Minnesota’s system have been spent primarily in the minors.  He averaged close to a point per game in Iowa so the skills are certainly there.  If he can translate that to the NHL (he struggled in that regard last season), he could be a fixture in their lineup for a long time and as we’ve seen, productive centers can get paid quickly.

Faber joined the Wild late in the season and made an early mark, skating as a regular for them in the playoffs.  He should have a leg up on a roster spot for this year.  However, unless he sees a fair bit of power play time, it seems unlikely that Faber will be in a spot to command a long-term extension and bypass a bridge deal altogether.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

F Connor Dewar ($800K, RFA)
F Brandon Duhaime ($1.1MM, UFA)
G Marc-Andre Fleury ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Alex Goligoski ($2MM, UFA)
F Marcus Foligno ($3.1MM, UFA)
F Ryan Hartman ($1.7MM, UFA)
F Pat Maroon ($800K, UFA)*
F Mats Zuccarello ($6MM, UFA)

*-Tampa Bay is retaining an additional $200K on Maroon’s contract

Zuccarello is a rare example of a player becoming more productive the older he gets.  After seeing his output dip at the end of his tenure with the Rangers and hover near that level in his first two years with Minnesota, the 36-year-old has had his two best offensive showings over the past two seasons.  Yes, some of that is attributable to the player lining up on his opposite wing but it would be hard to walk away from entirely who produces that much in the hopes that someone cheaper could produce as much as that same winger.  Independently, a player with Zuccarello’s recent production could make a case for a raise but with his age, that could be tough.  At this point, a one-year deal worth around $5MM could work for both sides with the AAV dropping on a two-year agreement.

Foligno looked to have turned the corner in 2021-22, posting a career year offensively but came up well short of that last season.  If he stays around the 25-30-point mark, he could command a deal similar in size to this one but as teams look to make their bottom six cheaper, he could also feel the squeeze a little bit.  Hartman wasn’t quite able to put the same numbers as his breakout 2021-22 campaign either but produced at better than a 50-point pace which is still a fantastic return on his current contract.  That’s second-line production and a second-line middleman can command more than $5MM per season on the open market.

Duhaime is a capable fourth liner who plays with plenty of physicality and chips in a bit offensively but the market for those players is starting to flat-line.  A small raise isn’t impossible – especially if he can crack the double-digit mark in goals but the AAV should still start with a one.  Maroon comes over from the Lightning to help fill the void created by the departure of Ryan Reaves to Toronto.  He fits on the fourth line but his market value shouldn’t be much higher than his current deal.  As for Dewar, the 24-year-old spent plenty of time on the fourth line as well but plays center and kills penalties, giving him a bit more earnings upside.  A small bump on the 18 points he had last season could give him a shot at coming close to doubling this contract, especially with arbitration eligibility.

Goligoski’s homecoming has been up and down, to say the least.  His first season (2021-22) saw him play an important role and when he signed this deal, it looked like a team-friendly one.  However, he struggled to crack the lineup last season and didn’t play well when he was in.  Now, it’s a deal they’d almost certainly like to move if they could but with his struggles and trade protection, that will be easier said than done and another contract is far from a guarantee.

Fleury’s first full season with Minnesota was decent.  He’s no longer a top starter but his numbers were better than the NHL average and getting that performance for the cost of a good backup is fine.  He turns 39 in November so it’s possible he’s entering his final NHL campaign.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Marcus Johansson ($2MM, UFA)
D Jon Merrill ($1.2MM, UFA)
D Jacob Middleton ($2.45MM, UFA)

The first time Minnesota acquired Johansson, things didn’t go very well.  He battled injuries and struggled when he was in the lineup.  When GM Bill Guerin brought him back at the trade deadline, it was a different story as he averaged nearly a point per game down the stretch.  That’s unsustainable for him but at this price point, they don’t need that level of production.  If he can hover around the 30-35-point mark, they’ll do well with this contract.

Middleton isn’t going to light up the scoresheet but he’s a capable stay-at-home defender who’s best suited for a fourth or fifth role on the depth chart.  That’s basically where he stands with the Wild and if he wants to push himself into a higher salary tier, his production will need to come around.  Otherwise, his market value in 2025 might be around the $3.5MM range.  Merrill is a capable depth piece that gives Minnesota some value when he’s a regular in the lineup but is overpaid when he’s in the reserve role.  If they need to open up some cap space, waiving and assigning him to the minors and calling up a cheaper defender would give them a few hundred thousand to work with.

Signed Through 2025-26

G Filip Gustavsson ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Kirill Kaprizov ($9MM, UFA)

Minnesota wanted a max-term deal for Kaprizov when his entry-level deal was up back in 2021 but the winger wasn’t particularly interested in one so they settled on this one instead, an agreement that bought a little more team control but positioned him to land a significant max-term contract in 2029 if he wants one at that point.  His numbers dipped a bit last season but he still played at a 92-point pace on the heels of a 105-point showing the year before.  A continuation of that level of production coupled with a projected jump in the salary cap between now and then should give Kaprizov a serious chance at pushing for a contract that would break the current record for a winger ($11.643MM).

A year ago, the thought of Gustavsson having this contract would have been shocking.  After all, he failed to establish himself as even a regular backup in Ottawa.  However, he was second in the league in GAA and SV% last season, albeit in just 37 starts.  As a result, this deal is somewhat of a compromise by paying him at the top end for a platoon option which is reflective of the role he might still have this season.  If he becomes a true number one, however, this will be a steal quickly.

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