Picking This Year’s Cinderella Run Has Never Been Easier
The Utah Mammoth enter play Saturday with a 37-30-6 record, squarely in position for their first playoff berth via the wild-card spot in the West. They’re 3-5-2 in their last 10 games. In the Eastern Conference, they’d be seven points out of a playoff berth.
If you lump in the Coyotes’ history with the rebirthed Utah franchise, this club hasn’t made the playoffs in a full season since 2012. If you want to go all the way back to their origins as the original Winnipeg Jets, this team has won just four playoff series since entering the NHL in 1979 – once each as the Jets in 1985 and 1987, twice as the Coyotes in their run to the ’12 Western Conference Final.
Yet the Utah Mammoth, in their first season with their new namesake, are a glaringly obvious pick to upset their way through the first two rounds of the playoff bracket and end up as one of the league’s final four teams. Why?
Everyone knows the Pacific Division is bad. Few realize how dire the situation truly is.
There are four regular-season stats that consistently predict postseason haves and have-nots, as Daily Faceoff’s Brock Seguin pointed out earlier this week. Of the last 10 Stanley Cup champions, nine have been in the top 10 in 5-on-5 goals share, eight have been top 12 in 5-on-5 expected goals share, all have been top 12 in 5-on-5 save percentage, and nine have been top 12 in combined power play and penalty kill percentage.
Utah is all but guaranteed to end up in the Pacific bracket as the better wild card. A look at those numbers clearly shows that none of the three teams earning divisional berths stands much of a chance.
The Ducks, on track for their first division title in nine years and first postseason appearance in eight, might be the worst offenders of the bunch. They have a -15 goal differential at 5-on-5 this season for a GF% of 47.6%, 21st in the league. Their expected goals share is right at the 50% waterline, but still ranks 17th. Their goaltending, a boon earlier in the season, has fallen to a 26th-ranked .896 5-on-5 save percentage. Their combined special teams percentage of 96.7% is 24th.
Of course, the Ducks might just be a statistical anomaly. Very little about their profile suggests they should be the 40-win team they already are. They’re not particularly lucky, finishing 0.3% below league average with a 98.9 PDO, and own a -4 goal differential. Who’s to say that can’t continue in the playoffs?
They’ll be matching up against the Mammoth, though. For the second year in a row, Andre Tourigny’s Utah club is much, much better than its record indicates.
Take all the above stats in contrast. They’re eighth in the NHL in 5-on-5 GF% (53.1). Sixth in xGF% (52.7%). 21st in save percentage (.902). 26th in combined special teams (96.4%).
Yes, their struggling power play is a significant reason why their record isn’t any better. In a playoff environment with tighter calls, there are fewer of them to be had, though, and it carries less weight than everything else.
Is Karel Vejmelka a Stanley Cup-caliber starting goaltender? Probably not. It’s clear, though, that Utah’s dominant 5-on-5 play should be more than enough to ensure a wild-card-over-division-champ upset over the Ducks. It should also be enough to get them past a similarly flawed Oilers or Golden Knights roster in the second round, as those clubs are likely ticketed for the #2/#3 matchup.
The only stats in which the Oilers grade out as a potential Cup contender are expected goals share (51.4%) – the least reliable indicator among the four stats outlined – and their combined 107.7% special teams rate. Penalty trouble could sink the Mammoth, sure. But even at the Oilers’ greatest 5-on-5 strength, Utah grades out as a better possession-control team. The Oilers’ horrid 5-on-5 goaltending – 31st in the league at a .887 SV% – could be enough on its own to offset any special teams gains.
If they face Vegas, they’d be coming up against the only team with a worse goaltending situation this year than Edmonton (.885). The Knights’ possession numbers do make them more of a threat, though, with their 5-on-5 GF% ranking 19th (48.5%) and their xGF% (53.1%) all the way up at fifth. That’s miles ahead of Edmonton, and they’ve got the league’s fourth-best special teams efficacy at 106.8%, so they pose a greater challenge. But like Edmonton, Vegas’ lack of a clear-cut #1 option in net – and not for a good reason – will likely be enough to sink them against an above-average finishing squad in Utah.
Of course, the narrative falls apart when pitting the Mammoth against a potential Central Division opponent in the Western Conference Final. Average the league-wide ranks of those four stats among the teams currently in playoff position, and the Avalanche, Stars, and Wild are three of the top four teams.
Still, it’s excessively rare to almost expect a wild-card team to be playing playoff hockey into late May. It would be a great story to see one of the league’s most exciting up-and-coming franchises in Utah, particularly one with such a meager history of success, make a deep run. It would also be one of the least surprising developments of the spring, despite what a traditional wild-card narrative may dictate.
Injury Updates: Steel, Honzek, Jets
Stars center Sam Steel has returned home early from their road trip due to an undisclosed injury sustained on Thursday, relays team reporter Mike Heika (Twitter link). With three games left on the trip, it stands to reason that he’ll now be out at least that long. The 28-year-old is in the middle of a career year, posting 12 goals and 21 assists through 72 appearances. Dallas is now down to just 12 healthy forwards at the moment although the hope is that winger Mikko Rantanen may be ready to return for one of their games this weekend.
Other injury news from around the NHL:
- Flames forward Samuel Honzek returned to practice today for the first time since suffering an upper-body injury in a collision with teammate Mikael Backlund back in mid-November, reports Danny Austin of the Calgary Herald. However, the team has already indicated that even though he’s skating ahead of schedule, he remains out for the season. The 21-year-old was a first-round pick in 2023 and had four points in 18 games. While he won’t be able to add to that total, the fact that he’s back on the ice now suggests he’ll be primed for a full offseason and perhaps a stint for Slovakia at the Worlds in May.
- While the Jets needed to bring two players up under emergency conditions today, that situation may not exist for too long. Mike McIntyre of the Winnipeg Free Press mentions that forwards Nino Niederreiter and Vladislav Namestnikov are on Winnipeg’s road trip and could be options to return within the next week. Both veterans are in the middle of down years, with Niederreiter notching just 19 points in 55 games and Namestnikov currently with only 13 points in 57 contests. However, both would still be viewed as welcome returns next week as the team looks to hang around in the battle for a Wild Card spot.
Wild Assign Hunter Haight To AHL
The Wild made a roster move on their off day, announcing that center Hunter Haight has been sent back to AHL Iowa. He was on a regular recall – Minnesota’s first – meaning that they have four non-emergency promotions remaining this season.
The 21-year-old has been shuffled back and forth quite frequently this season, six times, in fact. For all those promotions, Haight hasn’t seen a lot of NHL action. He got into two games with Minnesota on this most recent stint where he picked up his first assist and point of the season against Chicago. Overall, he has suited up in seven games with the big club and is averaging just under 10 minutes a night of playing time.
Haight has been considerably more productive with Iowa, however. Through 43 games with them, he has 12 goals and 11 assists, good for sixth on the team in scoring. He has one season remaining on his entry-level contract after this one.
When Haight was brought up a week and a half ago, Minnesota was dealing with some injuries. However, Bobby Brink and Joel Eriksson Ek (injured at the time) have since returned to the lineup, giving them 15 healthy forwards at the moment. With that in mind, it makes much more sense to have Haight playing back in Iowa over sitting in the press box in Minnesota.
Jets Recall Parker Ford, Danil Zhilkin
The Winnipeg Jets have recalled forwards Parker Ford and Danil Zhilkin under emergency conditions. The duo will help Winnipeg fill in for injuries to Vladislav Namestnikov, Nino Niederreiter, and Morgan Barron.
Zhilkin, 22, played through the first four games of his NHL career on a brief call-up in January. He managed no scoring, no penalties, and a plus-two in those appearances, while only playing more than 10 minutes in one game. He has planted his feet as a top center for the AHL’s Manitoba Moose in the months since, even despite scoring only 22 points in 54 games this season. He had a brief hot streak – five points in five games – in late December, leading up to his first NHL recall, but has otherwise struggled to post consecutive games with points for much of the year.
Ford has played through a fairly similar season. The 25-year-old winger began the season as an extra forward on Winnipeg’s roster. He appeared in 11 NHL games between October and November but only posted one point, four penalty minutes, and a minus-two. Ford was assigned to the AHL in November and has since recorded 21 points in 45 games with Manitoba. He has offered a responsible game around a young Moose lineup, helping to create space for Jets prospects Brayden Yager, Brad Lambert, and Zhilkin. Ford also appeared in three NHL games, and scored one point, last season.
The pair of call-ups will help Winnipeg stock the lineup as they prepare for a four-game road trip. Winnipeg now carries Zhilkin, Lambert, Isak Rosen, Ville Heinola, and Elias Salomonsson on the NHL roster. With the postseason well out of sight, they’ll embrace a chance to test out prospects with 10 games left on the schedule.
Sharks Recall Laurent Brossoit
The San Jose Sharks have recalled depth goaltender Laurent Brossoit from the AHL. He will help shore up the depth chart after starter Yaroslav Askarov was injured in the second period of Thursday’s game against the St. Louis Blues per Curtis Pashelka of Bay Area News Group. Askarov was injured after Blues winger Nathan Walker was knocked into the crease by Sharks defenseman Vincent Desharnais. The Sharks haven’t yet designated the nature of Askarov’s injury.
Thursday marked Askarov’s return from a previous injury that held him out of 16 days and seven games. He has served as San Jose’s go-to goaltender when healthy. Playing through his first season in a full-time NHL role, Askarov has recorded 19 wins, an .887 save percentage, and a 3.52 goals-against-average through 41 games.
Brossoit made his own return from injury in early December. He played his first games of the season with the AHL’s Rockford IceHogs, after missing the entirety of the 2024-25 season with multiple lower-body injuries. The Sharks traded for Brossoit in early January. He quickly took over the starting role for the San Jose Barracuda, where he has posted an impressive 11 wins and .915 save percentage in 15 appearances. On the long haul back from injury, the former William M. Jennings Trophy-winner received his first call up to the Sharks roster on March 13th. He played in his first NHL game since April, 2024 two days later and allowed six goals on 23 shots in a 4-7 loss to the Ottawa Senators.
Brossoit moved to the backup role for the remainder of Askarov’s absence, then returned to the AHL with a 31-save performance on Wednesday. Now, another injury to Askarov will pull Brossoit back into the NHL, where he’ll continue to backup Alex Nedeljkovic. It is unclear if he’ll have a chance at returning to the starter’s crease, though another NHL appearance will mean a chance to get back on track after a rough return to the league.
Stars Promote Rich Peverley To Assistant GM
The Dallas Stars have made a change to their front office. Rich Peverley has been promoted to Assistant General Manager, in addition to his role as Director of Player Personnel. He becomes the third assistant GM in Dallas’ front office, alongside Scott White and Mark Janko. Peverley is in his 10th season in a managerial position with the Stars. His front office career began with six seasons as the Director of Player Development, before he was promoted to Director of Player Personnel in 2021.
Peverley’s history in Dallas stretches beyond his front office career. He played through nine seasons in the NHL, including one full season with Dallas to end his career. He was a valuable depth forward during his playing days, offering two-way responsibility and fearless physicality. His career was brought to an early end due to health issues in 2013. Peverley underwent a surgical procedure to address an irregular heartbeat before the 2013-14 season. Six months later, he collapsed on the Stars’ bench during a game, marking a lapse in his heart health. Peverley underwent further heart surgery to address the issue. He missed the final 18 games of Dallas’ season and ultimately wouldn’t play in another pro hockey game.
Peverley had one year on his standard player contract left when he experienced his health concern. He spent the final year as a volunteer coach with the AHL’s Texas Stars for the 2014-15 campaign, then began his managerial career in 2015-16. At the time, Dallas had only made one postseason in the last seven seasons. With Peverley’s help in player development, Dallas has grown far above those struggles, and now stands as a perennial top team in the Western Conference. Dallas made it to the 2020 Stanley Cup Finals and has lost in the Western Conference Finals in each of the last three seasons. Their push to the top of the standings has been driven by young stars Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston, Miro Heiskanen, and Thomas Harley – each drafted by Dallas during Peverley’s time in the front office.
A move to assistant GM will mark another step forward in Peverley’s career, amidst another successful season in Dallas. The 43 year old will help Dallas approach an off-season with 10 pending free agents, including captain Jamie Benn and top restricted-free agents Robertson and Mavrik Bourque.
Maple Leafs Reassign Bo Groulx
The Maple Leafs have assigned center Benoit-Olivier Groulx to the AHL’s Toronto Marlies, the team’s media relations department announced Friday.
Groulx, 26, was recalled following the trade deadline earlier this month to serve as a fill-in down the middle after Scott Laughton was dealt to the Kings and captain Auston Matthews suffered a season-ending MCL injury. In his first NHL action in nearly two years, the 6’2″ middleman scored three goals and two assists for five points in nine games.
The Rouen, France, native is signed through next season after inking a two-year, $1.625MM contract last summer following a non-tender by the Rangers, with whom he spent the entire 2024-25 campaign in the minors. His efficient scoring performance, plus a +5 rating while averaging north of 15 minutes per game in heavy defensive usage, might very well make him a favorite to land a bottom-six center job in training camp next fall.
Groulx was a second-round pick by the Ducks in 2018. While he only scored a goal and five points in 65 games with them before they cut him loose with a non-tender in 2024, he’s demonstrated improved offensive acumen in the minors since getting a fresh start in the New York and Toronto organizations.
This season, Groulx is the Marlies’ scoring leader with a 27-23–50 line in 54 games. He “wanted to go down and help them and play,” head coach Craig Berube told reporters Friday (including Terry Koshan of the Toronto Sun), offering some insight into why he was flexed back down despite his strong performance in a middle-six role over the past few weeks.
With Matthews out, the Leafs no longer have an extra healthy forward on the active roster. If there’s an injury, they’ll need to make an emergency recall from the Marlies to ice 12 forwards.
Canadiens, Owen Protz Agree To Entry-Level Deal
The Canadiens announced they’ve agreed to terms with defense prospect Owen Protz on a three-year, entry-level contract. It’ll kick in next season. PuckPedia reports it carries a $1.004MM cap hit with the following breakdown:
| Year | NHL salary | Signing bonus | Potential performance bonuses | Minors salary |
| 2026-27 | $850K | $102K | $68K | $85K |
| 2027-28 | $900K | $105K | $45K | $85K |
| 2028-29 | $950K | $105K | none | $85K |
Protz, 20, was a fourth-round pick in 2024 out of the OHL’s Brantford Bulldogs, where he’s remained ever since to wrap up his junior career. Montreal would have lost his signing rights if they waited until after June 1 to get a deal done.
On a Montreal defense corps dominated by offensive-minded threats like Noah Dobson and Lane Hutson, Protz hopes to develop into a depth piece who can serve as a much more physically involved complement. The 6’2″, 207-lb lefty does have some two-way juice in his game that should help him avoid becoming a complete offensive liability if he reaches the top level, but he’s a brutal, intelligent checker first and foremost, who’s quite skilled at keeping play to the perimeter.
His lack of dynamacity means he doesn’t stick out too much in the Habs’ still-deep pool, but it’s worth noting they only have two non-roster left-shot options signed through next season – Adam Engstrom and Luke Mittelstadt. He should be able to jump into a bottom-pairing role with AHL Laval, get some reps on the penalty kill, and begin to work his way up the depth chart. He has until 2029 before the Habs must make their first decision on whether to tender him a qualifying offer and keep him around.
The Ottawa native wraps up his time in the OHL with a 13-61–74 scoring line in 198 games with 190 penalty minutes and a +60 rating. That includes 23 points and a career-best +45 mark in 60 games for the Bulldogs this year.
Avalanche Reassign Gavin Brindley
The Avalanche announced following Thursday night’s win over the Jets that they’ve reassigned right-winger Gavin Brindley to AHL Colorado.
Brindley, 21, has not yet played in the AHL this season but was sent to the Eagles for a few hours at the trade deadline to make him eligible for reassignment down the stretch. He had played in every game for the Avs since Jan. 3 before exiting the lineup for this week’s games against Pittsburgh and Winnipeg, falling victim to a roster crunch created by the returns of Logan O’Connor, Ross Colton, and Artturi Lehkonen from injuries.
The undersized but high-energy winger impressed early in a depth role in Colorado this season after being acquired from the Blue Jackets last summer in the deal that sent Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood to Columbus. An early second-round selection in 2023 (34th overall), Brindley has a 6-7–13 scoring line in 56 games but only has two points and a -6 rating over his last 25 outings, so he’s hit a tough stretch in the second half of the year.
Colorado saw enough out of Brindley to sign him to a cost-effective two-year, $1.75MM extension back in November. He still has another season of waiver-exempt status after this one, so, especially considering they structured the first year of that extension as a two-way deal, he may still see some AHL time in 2026-27 before ideally transitioning to a full-time role in a couple of years.
The Florida native was a star offensive producer at the University of Michigan but struggled as a first-year pro in the Columbus organization last season, limited to a 6-11–17 scoring line in 52 AHL games. Given how he’s fared in his NHL minutes this season, Brindley should be in line for an expanded role with the Eagles with a corresponding increase in production.
The Avs have carried a thin roster through much of the season, so the fact they only have 13 healthy forwards without Brindley on the roster isn’t anything new. His demotion is less about resolving a roster crunch and more about getting the still-developing winger some playing time.
Oilers Sign Tomas Cibulka To Entry-Level Deal
The Oilers announced Friday that they’ve signed undrafted free agent defenseman Tomas Cibulka to a two-year entry-level deal beginning next season. Per PuckPedia, the deal carries a $955K cap hit that breaks down to $930K in 2026-27 and $980K in 2027-28, $80K of which will be paid via signing bonus. His minor league salary each season is $85K.
Cibulka, 22 next week, makes the jump back across the Atlantic after spending the last two years in Czechia’s top division, Extraliga, with HC Motor Ceske Budejovice, his hometown team. Before that, he played through most of his junior career in Eastern Canada, suiting up for the Val-d’Or Foreurs and the Cape Breton Eagles of the QMJHL from 2021-24.
The lefty checks in at 6’0″ and 170 lbs. There were some defensive flaws in his game dating back to junior that haven’t really gone away, but Edmonton hopes his puck-moving ability is enough to help him challenge for a depth role in the NHL.
Over the past two seasons in Ceske Budejovice, he racked up a 13-29–42 scoring line in 90 games with a -10 rating. He was part of the Czechs’ bronze-medal-winning effort at the 2024 World Juniors, posting a pair of goals in seven games.
There’s no path toward a regular NHL role for Cibulka next season. Darnell Nurse, Mattias Ekholm, and Jake Walman are all signed for several more seasons and will make up the Oilers’ left side for now.
They have three non-roster lefties signed through next year – Damian Carfagna, Atro Leppanen, and Riley Stillman. All of them have put up good numbers in AHL Bakersfield this season, so for Cibulka to land regular playing time, it’s looking like he or someone else will need to shift to their offside.
Cibulka’s deal will make him a restricted free agent in 2028. The Oilers have now used up 31 of their 50 contract slots for next season.