What Will The Islanders Be This Season?
The New York Islanders finished a disappointing 2024-25 season on a positive note by winning the NHL Draft Lottery. They were able to draft defenseman Matthew Schaefer with the first overall pick. This turned what could have been a lost season into an offseason filled with optimism, as Islanders fans hope that newly appointed general manager Mathieu Darche can quickly retool an aging roster and avoid a complete rebuild. Expectations for the 2025-26 season are more subdued, but with a likely weak Metropolitan Division, the Islanders might surprise some if things go their way this season.
When you say things go right for the Islanders, it starts with overall team health. Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, Anthony Duclair and Adam Pelech have all dealt with serious injuries in recent years, and if that continues into the 2025-26 season, it will be a long one for the Islanders and their fans. Last season was a particularly difficult one on the injury front, and there are no guarantees that this season will be any different. Obviously, the Islanders hope it will be, and if they do, they have a high-reward roster, particularly in the players mentioned earlier.
NHL.com projects both Horvat and Barzal to surpass 65 points, which is reasonable since both players have maintained that range consistently over the past decade. Horvat is expected to reach 65 points after recording 57 points last season in 81 games (28 goals and 29 assists). Horvat has exceeded 50 points in seven of the past nine years and is likely to do so again unless he suffers a serious injury.
Barzal, on the other hand, is recovering from a frustrating year last season, when he scored just six goals and 14 assists in 30 games. He has reached the 80-point mark twice in his career and has recorded 50 points in six of the last eight years. He is projected for 67 points, which would be a solid rebound for the 28-year-old.
One other forward who will be looking to turn the page on last season is Duclair. The 30-year-old was brought in to be a fixture in the Islanders’ top six, but hardly delivered with only seven goals and four assists in 44 games. By the end of the season, he was being left out of the lineup, which is hardly what he or New York were hoping for when he signed a four-year, $14MM contract on July 1st, 2024. Duclair eventually took a leave of absence in early April after his struggles on the ice and recently spoke about it, saying he is excited to play next season and looking forward to bouncing back. For Duclair, it wouldn’t be the first time he’s had to rebound from a tough season, as his career has seen its share of ups and downs. Duclair was non-tendered by the Chicago Blackhawks in 2018 as a 22-year-old after a couple of trades and disappointing results. He later signed for the league minimum with Columbus and managed to turn around his fortunes in Ottawa before breaking out with the Florida Panthers. Duclair has played for eight NHL teams and will surely be motivated next season to improve his game.
Speaking of a turnaround, many might argue that the Islanders want more for their netminder, Ilya Sorokin, but it’s hard to blame him for last season’s disappointing outcome. Sorokin was quite good for New York, and although his traditional stats declined with a career low save % of .907, his underlying numbers stayed strong as he posted a +17.4 goals saved above expected (as per MoneyPuck). The 30-year-old goaltender has been a workhorse for the Islanders, playing in over 50 games each of the past four seasons, but it isn’t fair to expect him to perform at his 2022-23 level every year. Sorokin remains a top netminder in the league, and if the Islanders can provide him with some offensive support, they should be alright.
Finally, we return to Schaefer and what to expect from this year’s first overall pick. Islanders management hopes and believes that Schaefer could become the player who defines the Islanders for the next two decades, and there is good reason for that. However, whether he will start making a significant impact remains to be seen. Schaefer will undoubtedly receive a lengthy look in the preseason, and management will almost certainly be seeking a spark from the talented youngster as they try to ignite a blueline that was ravaged by injuries last season and lost their top d-man, Noah Dobson, in a trade with the Montreal Canadiens. With Pelech, Ryan Pulock, and Alexander Romanov all returning, the Islanders have room for Schaefer, and he could be the piece that unlocks their path back to the playoffs.
It’s also possible that Islanders management decides that another year in the OHL is the best course of action for Schaefer, but that will almost certainly follow a lengthy assessment period and possibly a regular-season audition.
Overall, the Islanders enter this season with cautious optimism. They aren’t a Stanley Cup contender, and they’ve approached the summer as such, trading away a top defenseman while making low-risk signings like forward Jonathan Drouin to bolster their depth. They are right in the middle of a retool, injecting youth into their lineup while keeping many of their veterans and even adding a couple. If things go their way, they could find themselves among the top eight teams in the Eastern Conference come April. However, if the veterans who struggled last year don’t bounce back and injuries pile up again, they might end up with a similar result to this season, but without the prize at the end of the road.
Photo by Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
Extension Notes: Connor, McDavid, Kempe
Unlike what transpired between the Winnipeg Jets and his former teammate, Nikolaj Ehlers, there’s more optimism in Manitoba that winger Kyle Connor will eventually sign a long-term extension to remain with the Jets. Unfortunately, extension negotiations between Connor and Winnipeg have been quiet this summer, as Frank Seravalli reported a few weeks ago.
Still, that’s expected to change, as David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period reported today that extension talks could begin as early as this week, and a baseline salary has already been set. Pagnotta believes that Connor will earn at least $10MM a year on his next contract, and it will likely be on a longer-term deal.
That salary would quickly become the highest on the Jets, beating out the $8.5MM AAVs for Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck. Regardless, it should be a more than palatable price for Winnipeg, given that Connor has been a higher-than-a-point-per-game player for the last five years, while crossing the 90-point plateau twice. Meanwhile, even at a record-setting salary for the team, Connor would only be the fifth-highest-paid winger in the league.
Other extension notes:
- Although some noise was made at Team Canada’s Olympic orientation camp regarding Connor McDavid‘s extension talks with the Edmonton Oilers, not much was made about the potential length of a new contract. McDavid signed a max-term eight-year contract with the Oilers back in 2017, but Pagnotta doesn’t believe that’ll be the case this time around. He asserts that the industry belief is that McDavid will prioritize a three-to-five-year deal, with the idea that a five-year deal would cost the Oilers approximately $17MM a year. Should McDavid’s camp push the term lower, his salary could reach the $20MM per season mark.
- Playing out the final year of one of the team-friendliest contracts in the league, Adrian Kempe of the Los Angeles Kings is eligible for an extension. Given that the Kings could be in the final year with franchise legend Anže Kopitar, Los Angeles should be prioritizing Kempe’s extension. In a minor update on the negotiations, Pagnotta notes that Kempe is seeking an eight-year, $80MM extension, while the Kings have countered with an eight-year, $72MM offer. Given that the two sides are only $1MM apart on AAV, it should be a bridgeable gap, meaning an agreement shouldn’t be too far away.
East Notes: Hutson, Milano, Spicer
In a recent article on The Athletic, Corey Pronman ranked 173 players under the age of 23 who are currently on NHL teams’ reserve lists. This means that these players may not be playing for their respective teams just yet. In a major snub to the reigning Calder Memorial Trophy winner, Pronman ranked Montreal Canadiens defenseman Lane Hutson 34th on that list, lower than eight other defensemen.
Hutson finished the 2024-25 campaign with six goals and 66 points in 82 games, tying Larry Murphy‘s rookie assist record for defensemen from the 1980-81 campaign. Not only did Hutson receive 150 more first-place votes than the next closest (Dustin Wolf) in rookie of the year voting, but he also made some noise in the Norris Trophy voting, finishing ninth in voting with one third-place vote, five fourth-place votes, and 22 fifth-place votes.
Pronman acknowledged Hutson’s scoring prowess, but based much of his ranking on Hutson’s defensive quality. In the article, Pronman said, “He’s a small defenseman without high-end feet or physicality. He works hard, but he can get bullied in physical play, and without high-end athletic traits, he will have trouble defending the fastest, strongest forwards, especially in the playoffs.”
Other notes from the Eastern Conference:
- After being limited to just three games during the 2024-25 season due to an upper-body injury, Washington Capitals forward Sonny Milano is continuing to work his way back to the team’s lineup. The Capitals aren’t setting any hard guidelines for the quality of his play when he returns, only hoping that he eventually does return. Tom Gulitti of NHL.com shared a quote from head coach Spencer Carbery, saying, “The way I look at Sonny right now is I’m looking at it from a standpoint of him just getting back into practice and game action and going from there. There’s no unrealistic expectations of him. Not putting any pressure on him. We just want him to get into camp, feel good health-wise and just take it from there.“
- The defending National Champions, the Western Michigan University Broncos, have earned a commitment from a Boston Bruins prospect. The Broncos announced that Cole Spicer, who last played for the USHL’s Dubuque Fighting Saints, will join the program for the 2025-26 NCAA season. Despite playing in the USHL last year, Spicer has prior NCAA experience, suiting up in 49 games for the University of Minnesota-Duluth from 2022 to 2024.
Metro Notes: Hart, Laperrière, Fehérváry
In late July, after the non-guilty verdict was announced, the NHL shared that none of the five players acquitted in the Hockey Canada sexual assault trial would be permitted back into the league upon further investigation. Still, that hasn’t negated interest from some teams, especially around Carter Hart.
According to a new article from The Fourth Period, David Pagnotta reports that the Philadelphia Flyers and several other teams are interested in signing Hart, awaiting the NHL’s decision on his eligibility. Regardless of the NHL’s eventual ruling, it is notable that nearly two years have passed since Hart and the other four players participated in competitive hockey, making it almost impossible to project their future value.
Before stepping away from the Flyers during the 2023-24 season, Hart had enjoyed a relatively successful career at the NHL level. The former 48th overall pick of the 2016 NHL Draft had spent six years in Philadelphia before that point, managing a 96-93-29 record in 218 starts with a .906 SV% and 2.94 GAA. Meanwhile, despite being outed in Round Two by the New York Islanders, Hart’s first trip through the postseason in 2020 was a bright spot in his career, collecting a 9-5-0 record in 14 games with a .926 SV% and 2.23 GAA.
Other notes from the Metropolitan Division:
- After spending the last 16 years within the Flyers organization as both player and coach, Ian Laperrière is finally moving on. Earlier today, Anthony Di Marco of the DailyFaceoff reported that Laperrière is joining the Islanders as a professional scout. Seeking the head coaching position of the Flyers this summer, Laperrière was removed from his post as head coach of the AHL’s Lehigh Valley Phantoms, but retained by the Flyers as an advisor. Regardless, Laperrière has finally decided to leave the organization altogether.
- In late April, the Washington Capitals lost defenseman Martin Fehérváry for their entire playoff run on the last game of the regular season due to knee surgery. There were concerns at the time that Fehérváry may miss a few games of the 2025-26 season, but that no longer appears to be the case. Sammi Silber of the DC Backcheck reported that Fehérváry skated today, but was still donning a non-contact jersey. The Capitals are taking his recovery slowly, which is fairly typical for the summer months, with the hope that he’ll return on time for the upcoming campaign.
Calgary Flames Hire Dave Lowry As Assistant Coach
Earlier today, the Calgary Flames announced they’ve hired Dave Lowry as an assistant coach. Lowry will replace assistant coach Brad Larsen, who has stepped away from the team due to familial reasons.
Lowry has been well-ingrained in southern Alberta since the waning days of his professional playing career. After a 15-year career that saw stops with the Vancouver Canucks, St. Louis Blues, Florida Panthers, and San Jose Sharks, Lowry signed with the Flames as a free agent ahead of the 2000-01 NHL season, spending his first two years with the organization as the team’s captain. Although he would have the captaincy stripped from him in favor of Craig Conroy and later, Jarome Iginla, Lowry finished his career with Calgary, playing in 10 games of their 2004 Stanley Cup Final run.
Remaining in Calgary after his playing career, Lowry spent four years as an assistant coach with the WHL’s Calgary Hitmen before joining the Flames in a similar role from 2010 to 2012. Unfortunately, under the stewardship of head coach Brent Sutter, Calgary didn’t reach the playoffs in any of the years with Lowry on the staff. After Sutter was relieved of his duties, Lowry also left to take the head coaching position with the WHL’s Victoria Royals, where he remained through the 2016-17 season.
Despite a one-year stint as head coach of the WHL’s Brandon Wheat Kings during the 2019-20 season, Lowry has been in the NHL ever since, serving as an assistant coach for the Los Angeles Kings, Winnipeg Jets, and Seattle Kraken. During his time with the Jets, Lowry briefly served as the team’s head coach after Paul Maurice stepped down during the 2021-22 season. Under Lowry, the Jets managed a 26-22-8 record in 54 games, missing the postseason by eight points.
Returning to Calgary, Lowry ends a 13-year hiatus from the club. Unfortunately, Lowry’s return is somewhat bittersweet, as Larsen had to leave the organization after only one year. Before joining the Flames last season, Larsen had enjoyed a lengthy run with the Columbus Blue Jackets, serving as the team’s assistant coach from 2014 to 2021 and head coach from 2021 to 2023.
Changes To LTIR Will Take Effect For 2025-26, Other CBA Changes Moved Up
A handful of changes outlined in the CBA extension and new Memorandum of Understanding that were ratified over the summer will go into effect earlier than expected. While the full extent of the agreement won’t take effect until the current CBA expires on September 15, 2026, some of the new rules and regulations in the new agreement will have an effect on league operations for 2025-26.
Chief among them is the major overhaul to long-term injured reserve, PuckPedia and Frank Seravalli report. The new playoff salary accounting rules and in-season LTIR relief rules will cover the 2025-26 regular season, not 2026-27 as initially planned.
In the past, teams have routinely benefitted from having a high-priced player on LTIR for either the entire season or a significant portion of it late in the year, allowing them to replace their cap hit before getting the injured player back for the postseason. That allowed teams to ice playoff gameday rosters that had combined cap hits well over the regular-season upper limit.
Now, prior to each playoff game, teams will need to submit their roster of dressed players (not including scratches or injuries) to the league. The combined cap hit of that roster, plus any dead cap space like buyouts or retained salaries, must be at or under the preceding regular season’s upper limit. For players on 35+ contracts, entry-level deals, or other contracts eligible to include performance bonuses, those bonuses will not be incorporated into playoff cap-counting calculations, per PuckPedia.
The only mathematically complex portion of the new playoff cap situation will be regarding players involved in retained salary transactions. From PuckPedia directly:
For the team that retains cap hit, the retention is pro-rated based on the remaining regular-season days at the time of transaction (e.g. if a team retains 25% of a player’s salary in a transaction, the 25% charged to the retaining team is pro-rated. If that retention occurred halfway through the season, the retaining cap would have a playoff cap hit equal to 25%*50%= 12.5% of the full cap hit). Note that the team that receives the retained player does not have their cap hit pro-rated for the portion of the season the player was on their roster.
For in-season LTIR, the changes are simpler. Teams still have the ability to optimize their captures, but the total relief amount that an LTIR pool can hold will now be limited to the previous year’s average salary. For 2025-26, that means teams can only create up to $3,817,293 in flexibility via LTIR, regardless of the total amount of cap hit a team has on LTIR.
There’s one key exception to that rule – if an LTIR-bound player is expected to miss the entire season, the team can still take full advantage of their cap hit. The league needs to approve each scenario, and the LTIR-bound player in question would then be ineligible to play in the postseason regardless of their health.
That means teams like the Golden Knights and Blues, who are expected to use Alex Pietrangelo‘s and Torey Krug‘s long-term injuries to stay cap-compliant via LTIR placements, won’t be affected by this change since those players are not expected to resume their careers, at least not this season. Meanwhile, the Panthers will now only be able to unlock that $3.82MM in flexibility compared to the $4.5MM they’re currently projected to need with Matthew Tkachuk expected to begin the season on LTIR with a target return date in January.
Here are the other elements of the CBA extension that will now take effect this season, per PuckPedia and Seravalli:
- Contracts with deferred compensation will be outlawed beginning Oct. 7 (the first day of the regular season)
- No more “paper transactions.” When a team assigns a player to the AHL, they must play one game for their respective affiliate before becoming eligible for an NHL recall.
- Double salary retention on a contract can no longer occur simultaneously. A contract can only be involved in a second retained salary transaction 75 regular-season days after the preceding one, eliminating the possibility for three-team trade deadline deals to effectively allow a team to acquire a player at 25% of their initial salary.
- Teams can bypass the NHL-CHL transfer agreement and loan one 19-year-old player to their AHL affiliate who would otherwise be required to stay on the NHL roster or return to juniors.
- The limit of four post-trade deadline standard recalls is expanded to five, although only four of those players can be on the roster simultaneously.
- Teams can no longer implement a dress code for players.
- Players may now endorse wine and spirits.
There will also be a slate of new rules that will take effect for the 2026-27 season but before the new MOU goes into effect on Sep. 16, per PuckPedia. Those are as follows:
- Changes to drafted player rights retention will take effect for the 2026 class (uniform expiry at age 22, regardless of league). Russian players remain exempt and their rights are held indefinitely by the team that drafts them.
- Increases to maximum minor league compensation on entry-level contracts.
- Increases to NHL league minimum salary, which will jump from $775K in 2025-26 to $850K in 2026-27.
- Mandatory neck protection rules begin July 1, 2026.
- Removing additional entry-level restrictions for European players.
Flames, Connor Zary Making Progress On Three-Year Deal
The Flames are “getting closer” to a resolution with restricted free agent Connor Zary, David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period reports Tuesday. It’s likely to be a three-year deal when it finally gets across the finish line, in line with what Calgary’s front office was reportedly aiming for in talks last month.
The cap hit on said deal will likely be in the neighborhood of $3.5MM, as indicated by AFP Analytics’ projections from the beginning of the offseason. Cap space was no object in talks for the Flames, who still have over $15MM in flexibility for opening night with only Zary left to sign, according to PuckPedia.
Zary ended up as one of the longest RFA negotiations this summer after plateauing in his sophomore season. After scoring 34 points in 63 games in 2023-24 and finishing eighth in Calder Trophy voting, he churned out 27 points in 54 games last year – a decrease of 0.04 points per game. Matters weren’t helped by a pair of lower-body injuries, including a knee injury that ended his season a few weeks early.
There’s still some room to grow for Zary, though. He turns 24 later this month and was Calgary’s first-round pick (No. 24 overall) in 2020. So far, that billing seems appropriate – his 61 career points rank exactly 24th among 2020 draftees. He also took on consistent top-nine and more frequent top-six deployment last season, averaging north of 16 minutes per game.
As he continues to work on building up his offensive acumen, he should expect a similar role in 2025-26. The Flames will begin camp with no notable changes to their forward group over the offseason, meaning a spot on the wing alongside either Mikael Backlund or Nazem Kadri should be his for the taking. It’s not as if he hadn’t been making linear progress up until last year – he steadily increased his production in the minors before exploding with AHL Calgary to start 2023-24, scoring 10 points in six games before earning his first NHL recall and never looking back.
A three-year deal would keep Zary under team control in the summer of 2028, but that’s Calgary’s last chance to negotiate with him as an RFA. Any subsequent deal he signs will lead him to unrestricted free agency.
Atlantic Notes: Meloche, McTavish, Hildeby
Sabres goaltending prospect Samuel Meloche has committed to Northeastern University, he announced on Instagram. It’s unclear if the 18-year-old will join the school for the upcoming 2025-26 season or return to the QMJHL’s Rouyn-Noranda Huskies, where he emerged as a starter in his draft year, before heading to the college ranks in 2026-27. He was a fourth-round selection in June and checked in as one of the more athletic goalies in this year’s class. The 6’2″, 190-lb netminder had a .900 SV%, 2.90 GAA, five shutouts, and a 30-14-6 record for the Huskies last year – now committing to a school with the same moniker.
Other updates from the Atlantic Division:
- As the Bruins continue to overhaul their center pipeline, swinging a trade for Ducks restricted free agent Mason McTavish may be among the most realistic options they have to add a top-six piece, Conor Ryan of the Boston Globe opines. “If McTavish is actually available, the Bruins likely would need to relinquish a first-round pick or two, along with an intriguing prospect or young NHL player,” Ryan wrote. “There’s plenty of risk involved with moving first-round picks — especially for a retooling team that could land another top-10 pick next June. But a player such as McTavish also represents a high-upside addition with established production and room to grow — especially given his age.“
- After signing a three-year deal this morning, Maple Leafs goalie Dennis Hildeby will have a $945K qualifying offer due upon expiry in 2028, PuckPedia reports. His one-way salary in the final year of the deal will be $900K after earning a $775K NHL/$350K AHL breakdown this season and an $850K/$450K split in 2026-27.
Maple Leafs Sign Dennis Hildeby To Three-Year Deal
Maple Leafs goaltender Dennis Hildeby had spent most of the summer as a restricted free agent, but he finally has a new contract in hand. The team announced Tuesday that they’ve signed their No. 3 option between the pipes to a three-year deal, keeping him in Toronto through 2027-28.
Hildeby’s deal carries a two-way structure through 2026-27 before converting to a one-way deal in its final season, the team said. He’ll carry a cap hit of $841,667 if he’s on the NHL roster.
The 24-year-old is coming off his first season of NHL action. The towering Swede didn’t fare all that well in his six starts, however, logging a .872 SV% and 3.33 GAA with a 3-3-0 record. Only two of those starts were quality ones, and he conceded 4.3 goals above expected in just over 360 minutes of ice time, per MoneyPuck.
Toronto is betting on there still being better days ahead in Hildeby’s development. He was initially draft-eligible in 2019 but was passed over three times before finally being selected by the Leafs in the fourth round in 2022 following a small but stellar first taste of professional action with Färjestad BK in Sweden’s SHL.
After Hildeby became the first player from the 2022 class to sign his entry-level deal, Toronto loaned him back to Färjestad before bringing him to North America at the end of the 2022-23 season. He’s largely remained on assignment to the AHL’s Toronto Marlies ever since, where he has a .909 SV%, 2.53 GAA, six shutouts, and a 37-21-14 record in 73 appearances for the club in the last three years.
Hildeby was an AHL All-Star in 2023-24 and, since he won’t require waivers for another season, is virtually guaranteed to begin this season as the Marlies’ starting option unless an injury strikes down one of Toronto’s NHL tandem of Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll in preseason. He’ll be the Leafs’ only real recall option unless they make another addition. Their other goalies under contract, Russians Artur Akhtyamov and Vyacheslav Peksa, are potentially high-ceiling options but are still too early in their development to warrant an NHL look.
Cal O’Reilly Signs In Switzerland
After 19 professional seasons in North America and well over 1,100 games, center Cal O’Reilly is making the jump overseas for a second time. He’s signed a contract with SCL Tigers of Switzerland’s National League that runs through the end of October with an option to extend for the remainder of the 2025-26 season, the team announced.
O’Reilly, the older brother of Ryan O’Reilly, has 145 NHL games to his name but hasn’t touched the top level since 2017-18 with the Wild. He’s played exclusively in the minors ever since, spending the last two seasons in the same organization as his brother on an AHL contract with the Milwaukee Admirals.
Long a premier playmaking threat at the game’s second-highest level this side of the Atlantic, the 6’0″, 187-lb pivot still managed an 11-38–49 scoring line in 68 games for the Admirals last season to lead the club in scoring. As he enters his age-39 season, he’s showing little sign of slowing down – rebounding quite well from some regression that saw him produce as little as 18 points in 59 games with the Lehigh Valley Phantoms in 2022-23.
The move to Langnau marks O’Reilly’s first time playing in Europe in over a decade. His only previous overseas stint coincided with the 2012 lockout, when he joined the KHL’s Metallurg Magnitogorsk on a multi-year deal. For whatever reason, his offense didn’t translate – he only managed 20 points in 46 games before he was released early in the 2013-14 season and promptly returned to North America.
O’Reilly was a fifth-round pick by Nashville way back in 2005 and has since gone on to appear in five AHL All-Star games, although a Calder Cup title has eluded him. He’s notched 177 goals and 606 assists for 783 points in 1,022 career minor-league games, tied for 17th in AHL all-time total points and second among active players behind Chris Terry‘s 807.
He joins the Tigers a week ahead of their regular-season opener amid some recent injuries to their forward group. He joins Saku Mäenalanen, Harri Pesonen, André Pettersson, and Juuso Riikola as the NHL-experienced talent on their roster.