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Offseason Keys 2020

Offseason Keys: Nashville Predators

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As teams are eliminated from the Qualifying Round, it means that the offseason has arrived for several more squads.  Having covered the teams that weren’t a part of the NHL’s return, we shift our focus to the ones that have been ousted.  Next up is a look at Nashville.

After a disappointing finish to what was a strong 2018-19 season when they were ousted by Dallas in the first round, the Predators opted to spend less on their back end and attempted to bolster their offense with the addition of Matt Duchene.  The results didn’t go as planned.  Instead, Nashville once again featured a middling attack and the change behind the bench to John Hynes instead of Peter Laviolette didn’t change much.  When the pandemic hit, they were battling for the final Wild Card spot in the West and they didn’t perform particularly well in their Qualifying Round loss to Arizona.  Now three seasons removed from their appearance in the 2017 Stanley Cup Final, GM David Poile has some work to do.

Make Way For Youth

If it seems like the Predators have been a veteran-laden squad lately, it’s because they have been.  Even as core veterans have been moved out, they’ve been replaced by other high-priced veterans.  As a result, they were one of the oldest teams in the league this season and when the play-in round hit, only one regular under the age of 25 was in their lineup and that was defenseman Dante Fabbro.  At a time where the league is getting younger and quicker, Nashville has been heading in the opposite direction.

That’s something that Poile seems to be acutely aware of as during his end of season availability from the Predators’ team site (video link), he mentioned half a dozen prospects that he expects to push for a roster spot next season, highlighted by Eeli Tolvanen up front and Alexandre Carrier on defense.

However, of their 12 forwards they used in the playoffs, 10 are already signed for next season and the two that are set to be unrestricted free agents (more on them shortly) will either need to be retained or replaced.  Poile may need to turn to the trade market to move out some of his forward depth and open up a spot or two for those youngsters to contend for.

Shake Up The Top Six

Poile has made no shortage of attempts to try to bolster his forward group in recent years.  Duchene was added last summer, Mikael Granlund at the 2019 trade deadline, plus Kyle Turris in a 2017 swap and Nick Bonino months before that in free agency.  Ryan Johansen in 2016 was the biggest one of all in what was a big one-for-one swap with Seth Jones going the other way.  Every move made some sense at the time but it’s safe to say that none of them have panned out as intended.

All of these additions were only good enough to get the Predators to 17th in the league in scoring this season with only a couple of tenths of a goal more per game than 2018-19.  Clearly, more work is needed.

Nashville has a pair of notable unrestricted free agents to deal with in Granlund and Craig Smith.  Granlund played a bit better under Hynes with 11 of his 17 goals coming after the coaching change.  He had a bigger role, logging over 19 minutes a game over that stretch so it’s possible that he could be part of the solution moving forward.  Smith, meanwhile, has been inconsistent over his career.  At times, he has been able to play like a front liner but in others, he has struggled considerably.  The two carried a combined $10MM cap hit and that money will need to be spent either re-signing or replacing both players.

If they re-sign one or both of them, Poile would still benefit from doing something to shake up the composition of their top six.  There’s an argument to make that every one of their top forwards underachieved offensively this season.  It’s possible (if not probable) that some will rebound next year but finding a different player or two that better meshes with the returning core could help unlock the offensive potential that this group has which is something they need to have happen if they want to get back into contention.

Add Proven Defensive Depth

For the last few years, Nashville has been forced to fill out the last few spots on their back end with veterans that have notable limitations.  The priority had been getting players at or around the league minimum salary such as Yannick Weber, Matt Irwin, and Anthony Bitetto (before being lost to waivers in 2018-19).  While they saved cap space which was important, those players were only able to log a few minutes.

It seems like they’re heading in that direction again.  Jarred Tinordi had been a minor league regular for more than three years but suited up for them in the playoffs is already signed for next season.  Ben Harpur, acquired from Toronto near the deadline, is another one with recent minor league time and is also signed.  Steven Santini, part of the P.K. Subban trade last summer, is under contract for one more year but spent most of the season in the minors.  These are players that are best served as injury recall depth, not regulars on the third pairing.

Even if someone like Carrier proves to be worthy of a spot, he may not be ready for more than a limited role.  If he isn’t ready, he may still get a spot thanks to his low cap hit.

While Nashville needs to make some room up front for younger players, they need to find a way to have a third pairing that can log more than 11-14 minutes per game.  Ideally, they’d be able to kill penalties, an area that was a problem for the Predators this year as they were last in the West with a 76.06% success rate.  If the league intends to play 82 games next season, it stands to reason that the schedule may be a bit more compressed than usual which will make a more capable third pairing that much more important.  Limited finances or not (depending on what happens up front), shoring up their defensive depth is something they should be looking to accomplish.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Florida Panthers

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As teams are eliminated from the Qualifying Round, it means that the offseason has arrived for several more squads.  Having covered the teams that weren’t a part of the NHL’s return, we shift our focus to the ones that have been ousted.  Next up is a look at Florida.

While they missed the playoffs a year ago, expectations were justifiably high for the Panthers coming into the season.  They made a big splash behind the bench with the hiring of Joel Quenneville, added a big-name goalie in Sergei Bobrovsky along with some other capable veterans.  That was supposed to be enough to give them a big boost.  It didn’t happen.  Instead, Bobrovsky struggled and they continued to be on the playoff bubble in the East.  They didn’t fare particularly well in the Qualifying Round against the Islanders which has them looking to shake things up again.  Here’s what they’ll be looking to accomplish.

Find New GM

First things first.  After officially letting Dale Tallon go early this week (via a non-renewal of his contract), the Panthers need to decide who will be making the decisions.  Tallon had been in the role for most of the last decade with Tom Rowe briefly holding the position for less than a year.

Considering that they already made one cost-cutting move before the pandemic hit when they shipped Vincent Trocheck to Carolina, it will be interesting to see if they look for a more under the radar candidate with an eye on trying to save some money, especially in the face of an expected decline in revenues for another couple of years after this.

It will also be worth watching to see if they revert back to the mindset that saw Rowe put in the role back in 2016 when the team looked to go in a more analytically-minded direction.  Tallon has the reputation for being more of an old-school general manager so a shift towards a more analytics-driven approach is something that could certainly be on the table.

The search is still in the early stages as the Panthers look to get permission to speak to candidates.  Montreal assistant GM Scott Mellanby is one of the known scheduled interviews while Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic adds former Kings executive Mike Futa to that list; there will be several others considered as well.  Florida will have some work to do in the coming months but they can’t do much until they determine who Tallon’s replacement will be.

Who Stays, Who Goes?

Taylor Hall, Alex Pietrangelo, and Torey Krug stand at the top of the upcoming UFA class but they’re sandwiched in the top five in scoring by a pair of Florida wingers in Mike Hoffman and Evgenii Dadonov.  At this point, it seems unlikely that the team will be able to afford to re-sign both of them while filling their other areas of need and staying within budget so it seems as if they’ll have to pick which one they want to try to keep.

Hoffman has the longer track record of success at the NHL level.  He led the team in goals this season with 29 and his point per game average was 0.86, a career high that had him playing just above a 70-point pace.  He’s also a significant threat on the man advantage, averaging nearly 12 power play goals per year over the past five seasons.  Even though his all-around game isn’t the strongest, being that type of scoring threat is going to draw a lot of attention on the open market, even with the salary cap challenges that the pandemic has presented.  Hoffman had a cap hit of just under $5.2MM on his soon-ending contract and he should be in line for a raise on that mark this offseason.

As for Dadonov, his point per game rate dipped a bit this season although he was on pace to match the 28 goals he put up in each of his first two years back with the Panthers.  After a stint in the KHL, his second go-round with Florida has been much more productive and since his return, he has been a capable top-six forward at a minimum; his first two years back saw him put up top line numbers.  The lighter track record may lower his market a little bit and while he’s looking at a nice pay bump on his $4MM AAV, he should come in a little bit cheaper than Hoffman.

Both players will be entering their age-31 year and it appears that their best-case scenario is that one will stay and one will go.

Add Defensive Help

Florida has spent a lot of money trying to shore things up defensively in recent years.  Aaron Ekblad is making $7.5MM per year.  They handed Keith Yandle $6.35MM per season and felt that Michael Matheson was a core cog, giving him $4.875MM.  That wasn’t enough so last summer, they added Anton Stralman for $5.5MM per year while inking what appeared to be a significant upgrade between the pipes in Bobrovsky with the second-richest cap hit for a goaltender in NHL history.

Those moves were supposed to propel them out of 28th in the league in goals allowed.  Instead, after the extra money invested in preventing goals, they still wound up in 28th place.

Evidently, spending roughly half of the salary cap on defense and goaltending isn’t enough to move the needle.  They don’t want to invest more between the pipes given how much they’re spending on Bobrovsky so trying to add another blueliner will be what the new GM needs to do.  Mark Pysyk is a pending unrestricted free agent (and at this point, may be a better winger than a defenseman anyway) while Josh Brown is best utilized as a seventh defender so there is a vacancy that can be filled.  They may not be able to throw much more money at that position so whoever gets the GM job will need to spend wisely to help bolster their back end and give Bobrovsky some much-needed help in the process.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Winnipeg Jets

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As teams are eliminated from the Qualifying Round, it means that the offseason has arrived for several more squads.  Having covered the teams that weren’t a part of the NHL’s return, we shift our focus to the ones that have been ousted.  Next up is a look at Winnipeg.

This season was expected to be one where the Jets took a bit of a step back.  While they were only a year removed from nearly winning the Central Division, their back end underwent quite the overhaul as several regulars moved on with minimal replacements added for cap reasons while another didn’t play for them at all before his contract was terminated in-season.  They used a hot streak down the stretch to have themselves in the battle for a playoff spot before the pandemic hit before being ousted by Calgary in the play-in series.  Now, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has some flexibility to work with this offseason (but a lot of roster spots to fill).  Here is what he should be looking to accomplish.

Restock The D

No team took as big of a hit on their back end as Winnipeg did between last season and this one.  Ben Chiarot and Tyler Myers moved on via free agency, Jacob Trouba was traded, and Dustin Byfuglien briefly reported to camp, left, and didn’t come back.  The only current NHL asset they received for any of those defenders was Neal Pionk.  While the 25-year-old had a career year for the Jets, this was still a significant step backwards.  The team had to turn to the waiver wire to stay afloat and the results were predictable as Connor Hellebuyck faced the most shots of any goaltender in the league this season.

Only three regulars are signed for next season and one of those (Tucker Poolman) played a limited role this year.  Cheveldayoff will need to work to add at least one top-four option to take some pressure off Pionk and Josh Morrissey.  Youngster Ville Heinola showed some promise in an early-season look but while he has the upside to get to that level down the road, that won’t come in 2020-21.

If they’re unable to afford a blueliner of that quality, then restocking the cupboards with quality depth options is a good way to go.  Dylan DeMelo made an impact in limited action after being acquired at the trade deadline from Ottawa and they’ll likely look to retain him although DeMelo is in line for a decent raise on his $900K AAV.  Nathan Beaulieu is another pending unrestricted free agent that could be retained at the right price.  But after them, the depth falls off quickly.  Bringing in a capable veteran or two that can log some minutes would be a useful backup plan; while it wouldn’t add to their top pairing, adding players that can log more minutes than a usual third pairing would still help.  Relying on the waiver wire for reinforcements didn’t work too well this season and that’s not a viable approach to reshaping their defense corps.

Acquire A Second Line Center

Finding a second line center has proven to be a bit of a challenge for Cheveldayoff.  In recent years, they’ve added Paul Stastny and Kevin Hayes as rentals at the trade deadline but they weren’t able to re-sign either one.  That’s left Bryan Little reprising that role but his season ended early due to a perforated eardrum.  They had some challenges filling that spot.  Jack Roslovic hasn’t developed as hoped and seems to be better on the wing at this stage.  Andrew Copp and Adam Lowry are effective players but they’re at their best in more limited roles.

That forced Blake Wheeler into playing down the middle for a large portion of the season.  He’s certainly capable of playing in that role but it takes him away from playing on the top line with Mark Scheifele holding down that number one spot.  That’s a nice fallback option to have but they shouldn’t be relying on that as their primary plan to fill the role next season.

In a perfect world, this is something that could be filled via unrestricted free agency but there’s a strong case to be made that there isn’t a top-six center available on the open market.  That means they’ll have to turn to the trade market to try to add one.  If they can get one over the coming months, it’ll stop them from having to part with more draft picks and/or prospects to try to add one as a rental closer to the trade deadline.

Add A Better Backup

Laurent Brossoit’s first season in Winnipeg was a strong one and he earned the one-year, $1.225MM extension that he played under this year.  However, 2019-20 wasn’t anywhere near as strong.  As a result, Hellebuyck led the league in starts for the second time in three years and while he played well enough to earn a Vezina nomination, asking him to regularly log as many minutes as he has isn’t ideal.  With a 3.28 GAA and a .895 SV%, it’s likely the end of Brossoit’s tenure with the team.

While they were eventually able to get Eric Comrie back (following stints in Arizona and Detroit), he’s probably better off as their third option once again.  He has been around long enough that he can serve as their mandatory exposure to Seattle in expansion (as long as he’s tendered a qualifying offer next offseason).

That could take Winnipeg out of the market of teams that will be seeking someone on a multi-year contract which will give them a few more options.  Ultimately, who they target will likely be determined by whether or not they’re able to improve down the middle and on defense as those are justifiably their top priorities but a better backup for Hellebuyck is something that Cheveldayoff will need to look for as well.  With 2020-21 likely to feature somewhat of a compressed schedule, those second options are going to be even more important so a more proven backup becomes that much more critical.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: New York Rangers

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As teams are eliminated from the Qualifying Round, it means that the offseason has arrived for several more squads.  Having covered the teams that weren’t a part of the NHL’s return, we shift our focus to the ones that have been ousted.  Next up is a look at the Rangers.

It was a year of mixed expectations for New York.  Even with the additions of Artemi Panarin and Jacob Trouba over the summer, the belief was that they still weren’t quite ready to contend yet.  Most of the regular season played out like that but the recall of Igor Shesterkin got them rolling to the point where they were a popular pick to make some noise in the playoffs.  However, it didn’t play out like that as they were swept handily by Carolina.  At the end of the day, the result was close to their preseason expectations but their year certainly ended on a sour note.  Here is what GM Jeff Gorton will be looking to accomplish over the next few months.

Add An Impact Left Defenseman

The Rangers are fortunate to have considerable depth on the right side of their back end which is usually the tougher of the two sides to try to fill.  Unfortunately for them, their depth on the left side isn’t as sharp.  Over their series against Carolina, their left side defenders were Marc Staal, Ryan Lindgren, and Brendan Smith.  Staal has been a speculative buyout candidate for a couple of years now, Lindgren is a rookie, and Smith is another frequent buyout option that happened to be playing on his off-side.  Of those, Lindgren is the only one that is part of the long-term future.

There are some prospects on the horizon.  2018 first-round pick K’Andre Miller has turned pro while Libor Hajek got into 28 games this season, albeit in a limited role.  But neither of them are ready to jump into a big minute role just yet and in a perfect world, none of the ones they used against the Hurricanes would be getting heavy minutes as well.

Their salary cap situation (more than $68MM in commitments already with a few notable RFAs of note) is going to make adding anyone of significance particularly challenging this offseason but this is an area that Gorton is going to want to address.  They can hope all they want that their youngsters can eventually play into those roles but it may be a few years before they develop enough to be ready to play heavy minutes in the NHL.  They need someone to bridge that gap between now and then, especially if they intend to get back into playoff contention for next season so even though it will be tough to accomplish, this is a hole that needs to be filled.

Solve The Goalie Logjam

There’s nothing wrong with having goalie depth but carrying three goaltenders on an NHL roster is a tricky field to navigate for any extended period of time.  Once Shesterkin was recalled, that’s the situation they were in which meant one of Henrik Lundqvist or Alexandar Georgiev had to be a healthy scratch.  Shesterkin and Lundqvist are signed for next season already while Georgiev is a restricted free agent.  Keeping all three of them would be great from a depth perspective but it may be a luxury that they simply cannot afford.

So, which one moves on?  It’s safe to say that Shesterkin is staying put so that leaves Lundqvist and Georgiev.  Lundqvist has been a fixture in New York for the last decade and a half and is their franchise leader in games played, wins, and saves.  He also has a cap hit of $8.5MM which is on the high side for a starter, let alone a backup.  The 38-year-old has declined a chance to be traded in the past and has said he wants to wrap up his career with the Rangers.  However, with their cap situation, can they justify keeping him?  A buyout wouldn’t save a ton of cap space next season (he’d still carry a $5.5MM cap charge for 2020-21 and a $1.5MM hit for 2021-22) but $3MM would give them a bit of wiggle room at a time where financial flexibility is a premium.  But is that how they want to part ways with a franchise icon?

The other option is trading Georgiev.  His entry-level deal is coming to an end and he’ll be looking for a sizable raise on his current sub-$800K AAV with 77 NHL games under his belt already.  There are teams that will be looking for a young goaltender with some upside and there won’t be many of them available on the trade market so Gorton could get a reasonable return for him.  On the other hand, if they move Georgiev now, then they’ll be looking for a new backup in 2021 once Lundqvist’s deal expires.  If New York is content with a Shesterkin-Georgiev tandem for the long-term future though, this wouldn’t the most desirable of routes to take.

On the surface, it certainly appears as if Lundqvist’s time with New York is coming to an end as carrying three goalies for all of next season doesn’t appear to be something that they’ll be able to justify doing.

Determine Core RFA Plans

A pair of Rangers had career years at ideal times as they head into restricted free agency with a chance at getting a big raise, even in the current salary cap landscape.  However, there are questions surrounding both of them as well.

Ryan Strome found some early chemistry with Panarin and rode it to a stellar year, one that saw him collect 59 points and log an impressive 19:35 per night of ice time.  At 27, he’s a year away from UFA eligibility which complicates things somewhat.  Is this a sign of this to come or a mirage?  Is it worth signing him long-term if they believe Filip Chytil is ready to move up into the second center role behind Mika Zibanejad?  If they have hesitations about his long-term future with the team, a trade may make more sense as a short-term contract that allows him to get to unrestricted free agency in the next year or two that sees him walk for nothing isn’t ideal.  Having said that, his history of up and down production may limit the number of potential suitors.

Then there’s Anthony DeAngelo.  Last offseason, the Rangers held the hammer when it came to signing him as the defenseman didn’t have arbitration rights and a limited track record.  That yielded a one-year, $925K contract.  This season, he put up an eye-popping 53 points while logging over 19 minutes per game.  That alone is worth a huge raise and now, he can file for arbitration.  All of a sudden, he holds the hammer.  How much will his new deal cost?  And with Trouba signed long-term and Adam Fox (both right-shot defenders) under team control through 2024-25, do they want to make that commitment or would they be better off moving him to fill a hole on their roster (such as their LD vacancy)?

If they do wind up re-signing both of them, their cap space will largely be eliminated which will all but guarantee that they will have to make some deletions from their roster.  Both Strome and DeAngelo were core players for New York this season but when it comes to them, there is still plenty of uncertainty which makes their cases worth keeping an eye on as the decisions that are made will ultimately shape their offseason plans.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Buffalo Sabres

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The offseason has arrived for at least seven teams that were not invited to take part in the Qualifying Round that has now started.  With that in mind, our Offseason Keys series is underway for the teams that are on the outside looking in.  Next up is a look at Buffalo.

This season was certainly a disappointing one for the Sabres.  After bringing in a new head coach and bolstering their depth, the results weren’t much different than in previous years with another playoff miss.  After originally giving Jason Botterill a public vote of confidence, ownership decided to make a change at GM, promoting Kevyn Adams to the role despite minimal front office experience.  The team has already made significant cuts to its front office and while making some moves to replace those that were let go (such as a new AHL coaching staff), Adams will have several things surrounding the Sabres on his plate this summer.

Looking Forward

Generally speaking, new general managers don’t often get the cleanest of canvasses to work with as they look to put their stamp on the team.  Adams is in somewhat of a unique situation when it comes to his forward group as Buffalo has just four regulars signed for next season in Jack Eichel, Jeff Skinner, Marcus Johansson, and Kyle Okposo, the latter of which is likely earmarked for a fourth line or reserve role.

This isn’t just a case of having a bunch of restricted free agents either as they have more unrestricted free agents than restricted free agents.  It’s a safe bet that three of those RFAs will be brought back in Sam Reinhart (whose post-bridge contract is going to be one of the more interesting ones of the offseason), Victor Olofsson, and Dominik Kahun.  But even with them eventually getting signed, that’s only seven forwards under contract which leaves up to seven roster spots available.

Of their unrestricted free agents, there aren’t any must-sign players although if the price is right, they’ll likely look at what it would cost to keep Zemgus Girgensons and Johan Larsson around.  Having said that, losing one or both of them won’t drastically change their fortunes either.

Some of those open spots will likely be earmarked for youngsters.  Casey Mittelstadt will assuredly get another look while their top 2019 pick in Dylan Cozens may get a shot as well.  But even if those two make the team, there will be room to add.

Buffalo has less than $50MM in commitments for next season and even when they re-sign all of their restricted free agents, they will have a fair bit of room to play with in an offseason where cap space is going to be at a premium.  The Sabres will be well-positioned to try to add an impact forward or two via free agency and if that falls through, they should be able to take advantage on the trade market.  Many new general managers are hamstrung with limited flexibility when they take over but Adams will be the exception and will have a good chance to change up their forwards pretty quickly.

Determine Ullmark’s Future

Last summer, Buffalo decided to kick the can on deciding Linus Ullmark’s long-term future with the team down the road, inking him to what amounted to a second bridge deal, a one-year pact worth $1.325MM.  Given that he only had one full year of NHL experience under his belt, the decision was certainly justifiable.

Punting that call again is no longer an option though.  The netminder is now one year away from UFA eligibility so another one-year deal just sets him up to walk away.  Adams is going to have to decide if Ullmark is a goalie that they want to build around pretty quickly.

Given his limited NHL track record (97 games over parts of five seasons), it would be difficult to make the case that he has shown enough to be their undisputed starter of the future.  On the other hand, Ullmark posted a more than respectable .915 SV% with a 2.69 GAA in 34 games this season.  On a non-playoff team, that’s pretty good.  At a minimum, those are pretty good numbers for someone in a platoon role which is basically the role he has held the last two years.

At 27, is that a role that Ullmark wants to lock himself into for several more seasons, even with Carter Hutton only a year away from free agency of his own?  If he envisions himself as a starter, he may prefer another short-term deal to let him test the open market quicker.  On the other hand, with less than 100 games of experience, a multi-year commitment at a decent-sized raise on his deal from this season would give him some security that he hasn’t had before.

The Sabres have a promising young goalie in the system in Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen but he’s still two or three years away from being ready for the NHL.  Is Ullmark the right one to bridge the gap?  Adams will have to decide that over the next few months.

Dahlin Extension

Based on the new salary cap situation, it’s not shaping up to be a fun offseason for many pending free agents.  But what about those who will be entering the final year of their deals and are now eligible for a contract extension?  It certainly stands to reason that teams may not be as willing to hand out a big-ticket contract to players in those situations as well.

Rasmus Dahlin appears to be a particularly interesting case study for players that can sign an extension.  The 2018 top pick actually saw his ice time scaled back this season under Ralph Krueger by nearly two minutes per game but it appeared to work for him as he nearly matched his rookie point total this season despite playing in 23 fewer games.

Between that and the expectations of him continuing to develop into an eventual franchise defenseman, this would normally be the recipe for a long-term deal getting done relatively quickly as other number one picks have done.  But that was then and this is now.  Is Buffalo going to be as willing to hand him a mammoth contract?  Will Dahlin prefer a bridge deal in the hopes that the cap picture will be improved once the next television contract is completed?  That’s a path that a lot of players will likely take in the coming months.

One element that Buffalo has that many other teams don’t is cap space.  They have the ability to ink Dahlin to a long-term deal now without it really creating a huge impact on their long-term cap picture.  Presumably, it will take more than what Florida gave Aaron Ekblad, a former top pick himself; the 24-year-old signed an eight-year, $60MM deal after his sophomore season which is where Dahlin is now.  (Based on Ekblad’s cap percentage at the time the deal was signed, an equivalent rate would be roughly $8.7MM per season instead of $7.5MM.)  There’s a roadmap to getting a contract extension done with Dahlin but will the new marketplace give one or both sides pause?  We’ll find out soon enough.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Anaheim Ducks

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The offseason has arrived for at least seven teams that were not invited to take part in the Qualifying Round that has now started.  With that in mind, our Offseason Keys series is underway for the teams that are on the outside looking in.  Next up is a look at Anaheim.

This season was supposed to be somewhat of a transition year for the Ducks.  More roster spots were earmarked for younger players while Dallas Eakins, their AHL coach, was brought in behind the bench.  In that sense, the end result (a sixth place finish in the Pacific Division) wasn’t too surprising.  GM Bob Murray has some work to do to reshape this roster but there are some challenges that lie ahead.  Here is a look at what they’ll be looking to accomplish this offseason.

Add Scoring Help

Let’s dive right into their biggest problem in recent years.  Anaheim simply has a hard time getting pucks in the net.  While there’s some hope that youngsters like Troy Terry, Sam Steel, Max Jones, and Max Comtois will be able to be reliable producers, they combined for 23 goals in 200 games this season.  They have hopes for the recently-extended Sonny Milano and in-season pickup Danton Heinen but both of them have been hit or miss offensively over their young careers as well.  There is some upside out of this group but none of them are really going to be able to shoulder the load; they’re more complementary players.

The problem for the Ducks is that their veterans can also be placed in that category.  Adam Henrique, Rickard Rakell, Ryan Getzlaf, and Jakob Silfverberg were their top four scorers this season but the highest point total out of that group was 43.  Granted, the early shutdown makes that number look a little worse than it otherwise would have been but Henrique didn’t crack the top 100 in points league-wide.  It’s hard to have success when your top players are producing at a second line rate at best.

Murray needs to be on the lookout for scoring help and could stand to add multiple upgrades to his top six.  Unfortunately, accomplishing that feat is going to be quite tricky.  Anaheim already has nearly $79MM in commitments to 18 players for next season with Corey Perry’s buyout costing them a whopping $6.625MM on the books.  With a flat $81.5MM salary cap, that doesn’t give them much room to work with.  Yes, Ryan Kesler’s $6.875MM will be heading for LTIR which gives them some wiggle room but they’ll be dipping into that simply to fill out their roster let alone add any upgrades.  They’re not in as dire straits as some teams are when it comes to the cap but finding a way to add an impact threat is going to be a challenge but it’s one that needs to be met.

Getzlaf Extension Talks

Teams are now allowed to work on extensions for players whose deals are expiring in 2021 and Anaheim has a prominent one of those in Getzlaf.  His agent Gerry Johansson acknowledged last month that his focus at this point is working on extensions over deals for players on expiring contracts.  With Getzlaf stating before the trade deadline that he had no desire to chase a Stanley Cup elsewhere, this would seem like a perfect opportunity to try to get a new contract done.

The question will be what the right deal will be.  In his prime, Getzlaf was living up to his $8.25MM cap hit but his numbers have dipped the past two years.  His days of being an ideal number one center are over so a notable dip in pay is forthcoming, one that is exacerbated with the Upper Limit of the salary not expected to move up much over the next few years.

Considering Getzlaf will be 36 when his new deal begins, term will also be a big factor.  It’s reasonable to think that he’ll want this to be his last contract so he’ll be looking for a multi-year pact.  35-plus deals carry some extra risk (unless they’re structured equally in terms of salary each year, a new CBA wrinkle) so that’s something that Anaheim will be keeping in the back of their mind as well.

Getting a deal with their captain done sooner than later would also give them some more certainty when it comes to their future spending and remove any possible distraction around Getzlaf getting asked about the possibility of moving on.  It certainly appears as if there’s going to be mutual interest in getting something done so with there being another three months before they’ll have a shot at game action again, this seems like a good time to try to hammer out a deal.

Find A Backup Goalie

Regardless of what they try to do to upgrade up front, Murray will have to leave some money set aside for a backup goalie as veteran Ryan Miller is slated to become an unrestricted free agent in October.  At the age of 40, it’s far from a guarantee that he’ll want to return and with the year he had (his .907 SV% was the lowest of his career over a full season), the Ducks may want to turn their focus elsewhere.  Internally, Anthony Stolarz is an option but he is probably best served as a third-string option at this stage of his career.

There’s also the Seattle expansion consideration.  Right now, the only goalie under contract that’s eligible for exposure is John Gibson and it’s safe to say that they’re going to want to protect him.

Accordingly, they may be among the teams that look to sign a goalie to a two-year (or longer) deal in order to satisfy the mandatory exposure requirement which likely takes Miller out of consideration.  That’s not a great market to be in, however, as quite a few teams are in that situation and it stands to reason that Anaheim won’t want to spend much money on a number two option given that Gibson is their surefire starter and that their cap space is limited.  After having Gibson and Miller as a tandem for the last three years, a change to that is probably on the horizon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Los Angeles Kings

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The offseason has arrived for at least seven teams that were not invited to take part in the Qualifying Round that’s slated to begin in early August.  With that in mind, our Offseason Keys series is underway for the teams that are on the outside looking in.  Next up is a look at Los Angeles.

Things didn’t go well for the Kings in 2018-19 so they made another coaching change before the start of this past season as they brought in veteran Todd McLellan to try to steer them in the right direction.  It didn’t happen.  While they managed to avoid finishing last (by a single point), they still had significant scoring problems and there are plenty of areas to try to improve on this offseason.  Here is an overview of what GM Rob Blake should be looking to accomplish.

Add Scoring Help

Given that they finished 30th in the league in scoring for the second straight season, this seems like a good place to start.  Los Angeles was hoping for their high-priced veterans to carry the load but it didn’t happen.  Anze Kopitar barely broke 20 goals, Dustin Brown’s output dipped for the second straight season following his career year in 2017-18, and Jeff Carter has tailed off considerably in recent years.  Ilya Kovalchuk was supposed to help in that regard but he didn’t even make it to midseason before his contract was terminated outright, leaving a $6.25MM dead cap charge on the books for next year.  Tyler Toffoli had a bit of a rebound season before being traded to Vancouver near the trade deadline.

Of their full-timers, their lone pleasant surprise up front was Alex Iafallo who built off of his sophomore campaign to post career numbers.  However, he also averaged nearly 19 minutes a night but in a perfect world, he’s more of a secondary option over a top liner.  His playing time was a microcosm of their situation up from though – there just weren’t really any other options for that spot.

That’s something that needs to change.  Yes, there are some promising prospects in the system and they’ll wind up with another one with the number two pick in October’s draft but none of their youngsters are ready for top six duty right away.  By the time they are, Kopitar will need a lighter workload.  Accordingly, they need to add a player or two that’s capable of helping out not only in the short term but a few years down the road as well.  Whether that comes via free agency or trade, that’s something Blake should be looking to bring in, even if he feels they’re not quite ready to push for a playoff spot right away.

Rebuild The Back End

It was only the 2017-18 season when the Kings were the stingiest team in hockey.  The goaltending was sharp and it had the benefit of playing in front of a deep defensive corps.  Today, only one player from their top four that season remains and that’s Drew Doughty.  Meanwhile, Jake Muzzin, Alec Martinez, and Derek Forbort have all been moved in trades for prospects and draft picks.

Not surprisingly, the defense corps that finished the season isn’t the most recognizable.  Joakim Ryan, Sean Walker, Matt Roy, Ben Hutton, and Kurtis MacDermid were the other blueliners to play at least 10 games for Los Angeles this year and while they all have shown enough to warrant a spot on other back ends around the league, they’re all suited for roles that are lower on the depth chart, not one that sees one of them partnering with Doughty on the top pairing.

The good news is that there is some help in the system – Tobias Bjornfot, Kale Clague, and Michael Anderson have all shown some promise in their limited NHL action this season.  Eventually, the Kings should get some help from that group.  The bad news is that they’re still a little while away from being NHL-ready.  There is a distinct need to add a capable veteran (if not more than one) to allow the youngsters to avoid being thrown to the wolves and to help stabilize the back end.  The emphasis should be adding someone on the left side, in particular.  Rebuilding or not, that’s still a need that should be filled.

Utilize Cap Room

Even with Kovalchuk’s dead money on the books, the Kings have a fair bit of money to work with as they sit nearly $21MM under next year’s cap with 16 players already under contracts.  There are no major players in need of a new contract so Los Angeles has some cap space to use.  Of course, they have several notable holes to fill with that money.

The cap space should have them in the mix for players like Taylor Hall, Alex Pietrangelo, or Torey Krug if they make it to the open market although with many teams likely looking to shed payroll over the coming months, Blake could opt to try to go that route as well.  Adding more quality prospects and draft picks is never a bad thing for a rebuilding team while the veterans they bring in would likely still represent an upgrade.  Better still, any player brought in via that route would basically be a bridge player to allow some of their prospects to stay in the minors and develop a little while longer (assuming there is hockey at the lower levels next season).

Cap space is going to be more valuable than ever this offseason (and likely for a year or two beyond as well).  Los Angeles has plenty of it which puts them in a good spot to take advantage of the more restricted market.  With several holes to fill on their roster, the timing couldn’t be much better.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: San Jose Sharks

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The offseason has arrived for at least seven teams that were not invited to take part in the play-in round that’s slated to begin in early August.  With that in mind, our Offseason Keys series is underway for the teams that are on the outside looking in.  Next up is a look at San Jose.

There was some cause for optimism for the Sharks heading into the season.  They were coming off an appearance in the Western Conference Final and managed to keep Erik Karlsson in the fold.  Things seemed to be looking up.  Things didn’t play out as they expected and that would be putting it lightly.  Pretty much every player struggled while an in-season coaching change didn’t move the needle and the end result was narrowly avoiding 30th overall.  And of course, they don’t have their first-rounder this year to make matters worse as that went to Ottawa in the Karlsson trade.  Their salary cap situation doesn’t give them a lot of wiggle room but here are some of the things San Jose needs to take care of this summer.

Coaching Decision

After they got off to a 15-16-2 start under Peter DeBoer, GM Doug Wilson decided to make a change behind the bench.  Bob Boughner, who had just been brought back for a second stint as an assistant coach, was promoted to the top job on an interim basis.  Things didn’t get much better on his watch as they limped to a 14-20-3 record before the pandemic scrapped the rest of the season.

Now, Wilson needs to make a decision on Boughner to either lift the interim tag or bring someone else in to take over.  Three months ago, Wilson stated that there would be a thorough review and that Boughner had the upper hand in the process at the time.  Is more than 14 weeks enough to conduct that review and make a decision?  For a moment, it seemed like they were leaning towards keeping the status quo but Wilson poured cold water on that on Thursday, telling Curtis Pashelka of The Mercury News that no decisions have been made yet.

Fortunately for the Sharks, they’re not really competing against anyone for coaches at the moment.  All other head coaching jobs are either filled or held by teams that are still playing which gives them even more time to work with.  There are several veteran candidates out there that are worthy of consideration in Gerard Gallant, Peter Laviolette, Mike Babcock, and John Stevens so there are plenty of options to choose from if they decide to go in another direction.

Is Boughner the right one for the job?  Eventually, Wilson will need to answer that question but at this point, it certainly seems like the answer is going to be yes.

Fix The Goaltending Situation

Despite getting as deep as they did in the playoffs, goaltending was a concern for San Jose for most of the year.  Martin Jones was coming off the worst season of his career as was Aaron Dell.  Nevertheless, the duo remained intact for 2019-20 and the results between the pipes weren’t much better.  Jones posted a save percentage of just .896 for the second straight season, a mark that backups need to be better than let alone starters.  Dell didn’t play at the level he had in his first two years but at least was a bit better although still below average.  This is why only a handful of teams allowed more goals before the season was shut down.

Needless to say, improvements need to be made.  The big question is how?  Jones still has five years left on his contract with a $5.75MM AAV.  At the time the deal was signed, it had a chance to be bargain but now it’s a problem.  With the flattened salary cap, finding a team to take that deal on is going to be tricky without taking another big contract back.  Unless that big contract is another goalie though, there isn’t a feasible trade option out there as a high-priced skater in return for Jones would price them out of the starting goalie market.  A buyout doesn’t seem likely either.

As for Dell, he’s slated to become an unrestricted free agent but he was only making $1.9MM on his expiring deal.  That’s enough to shop around for a veteran replacement but the top backups are going to be commanding more than that and they already have more than $66MM in commitments to just 13 players for next season, per CapFriendly.  A higher-end backup, while ideal, may be a luxury they simply can’t afford.  San Jose has high hopes for undrafted free agent Alexei Melnichuk but asking him to step in and play a big role right away would be risky despite his impressive showing in limited KHL action.

Their cap situation is going to make things tricky but if the Sharks plan on turning things around, Wilson is going to need to find a way to swap out starters or, at the very least, bring in a more prominent backup that can compete for more playing time.

Bank For Labanc

Last offseason, Labanc decided to take a team-friendly one-year, $1MM deal with the hopes that there would be more wiggle room next summer at a time where he’d have arbitration rights and ideally more leverage as a result.  For a variety of reasons, that plan hasn’t exactly worked out.

Labanc’s numbers dipped considerably this season to just 14 goals and 19 assists in 70 games.  For context, he had more assists (39) one year ago than he had points (33) in 2019-20.  Granted, pretty much everyone had a down year but that’s not a winning argument in an arbitration hearing.

The 24-year-old still should be in for a decent-sized raise but the change in salary cap projections due to the pandemic is going to hurt.  There was a case to be made that he’d be looking for a deal that might seem pricey now but more reasonable after a few more cap increases; lots of teams have done those in recent years and enough have worked out to make it a reasonable strategy.  But that’s off the table now as any increases over the next few years are going to be incremental at best.

At this point, another short-term deal (perhaps even another one-year pact) makes the most sense.  It gives Labanc a chance to rebuild his value and it would save them a bit of cap room in the interim.  The latter element was also a factor a year ago but at that time, he was looking to boost his value, not build it back up.  From San Jose’s perspective, as much as they like him, committing a long-term deal now may price them out of filling other holes so they’ll have that to consider as they map out their offseason plans.

It’s safe to say that Labanc’s plan last offseason didn’t quite work out as planned but unfortunately for him, the solution may be to try the same thing again.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Ottawa Senators

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The offseason has arrived for at least seven teams that were not invited to take part in the play-in round that’s slated to begin in early August.  With that in mind, our Offseason Keys series is underway for the teams that are on the outside looking in.  Next up is a look at Ottawa.

The Senators committed to a full-scale rebuild over the last couple of years when they dealt away the majority of their top players.  Not surprisingly, the corresponding performance this season wasn’t particularly strong.  The good news is that they have built up a strong prospect pool and are set to add to that with two picks in the top five in October.  But hitting on those two selections is only a small part of what they will be looking to do this offseason.

Spend, Spend, Spend

For a team that, let’s face it, has shown a reluctance to spend towards the Upper Limit of the salary cap, this may seem like a strange header.  In normal times, they likely wouldn’t be going out of their way to take on contracts but this isn’t anywhere close to being normal times.  The cap isn’t going up and that means there are going to be plenty more motivated sellers this offseason than we’ve been accustomed to seeing.

Ottawa has a strong stockpile of picks and prospects already but there is always room for more at this stage of their rebuilding phase.  The more options they have, the better.  Those will likely be the currency getting used to make those deals and GM Pierre Dorion should be quite interested as a result.

The Senators would likely be shopping at a different end of the market though and it actually may wind up being to their advantage.  While higher-spending teams will be shopping for the best talent available and trying to drive a hard bargain to get the best deal possible, Ottawa’s previous willingness to take on high AAV deals that carry a lower salary is going to be appealing to teams looking to cut money.  (Their past trades for Marian Gaborik and Ryan Callahan – both injured players – provide another pathway to pursue if it’s a short-term deal as well.)  Rather than lose an impact player, parting with a decent sweetener to pawn off an inflated AAV is a much better alternative and Dorion should be poised to take advantage of that, perhaps better than any other team.

Duclair Deal

Last summer, the Senators played it safe with Anthony Duclair, a move that was certainly understandable given his past performance.  Instead of looking for a long-term deal, they opted for a one-year, $1.65MM pact which the winger certainly lived up to and then some this year.  While his production was still streaky at times, he finished up his year with 23 goals (a career high) and 40 points while his point-per-game rate of 0.61 was better than any other season in his career.

With salary arbitration rights, Duclair is looking at a nice raise this offseason even with the salary cap flattening out.  But will it be a long-term contract this time around or a short-term one?  He’s two years away from UFA eligibility so it’s at the typical point where the bridge contract is now done and a long-term deal is worked out.

That still doesn’t seem like an automatic outcome here, however.  As some of Ottawa’s prospects work their way up the system, is there going to be a spot for Duclair in their top six a few years from now?  If they think the answer is yes, then this is probably the best spot to buy out a UFA year or two at the very least.  But if not, another short-term pact (perhaps even another one-year contract) may be the better way to go even though it runs the risk of getting him to a point next summer where he opts for a one-year arbitration award to expedite a shot at the open market (for the second time after he was non-tendered in 2018).  This will be one of the trickier decisions that Dorion will have to contend with in the coming months.

Add A Top-Six Center

Part of the reason that Jean-Gabriel Pageau was in the middle of a career year before being shipped out at the trade deadline was that he was effectively Ottawa’s number one center by default which allowed him to average more than 19 minutes per game.  That’s not an ideal amount of ice time for him but in head coach D.J. Smith’s defense, he didn’t really have any other options.  Colin White struggled mightily in the first year of his new deal, Chris Tierney is best used on the third line, while Artem Anisimov and Nick Paul should be in even lesser roles.  It got to the point where Brady Tkachuk was tried in the middle at times and while he held his own, his willingness and ability to engage physically makes him a better candidate to stay on the wing.

Granted, Ottawa does have high hopes for Josh Norris but despite a stellar rookie campaign in the minors, he’s not stepping into that role right away.  Neither is Logan Brown, a player who hasn’t been able to put it all together just yet.  There’s a good chance that they’ll wind up with at least one center with one of those early selections but throwing them to the wolves right away with a spot on the number one line is asking for trouble.

It’s not an area that Ottawa is realistically going to be able to address in free agency as quite frankly, the UFA market for centers isn’t the greatest.  It’s also unlikely that they’d be the top bidder if there was one out there.  Instead, this is one spot they’ll likely have to make a trade to improve.  A number one pivot is doubtful but as teams are looking to free up money, some quality second liners should be out there.  Even that would represent a considerable upgrade on what their current options are and would allow their up-and-coming youngsters to ease into their roles which, from a long-term development perspective, would be ideal.   Someone with three or four years left on their contract would fit in relatively well and would be a nice addition for Dorion to make.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Detroit Red Wings

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The offseason has arrived for at least seven teams that were not invited to take part in the play-in round that’s slated to begin in early August.  With that in mind, it’s time to kick off our Offseason Keys series for the teams that are on the outside looking in.  Next up is a look at Detroit.

It hasn’t been a good last twelve months for the Red Wings.  After finishing 28th in points in 2018-19, they took a step backwards and had a terrible season, one that saw them allow the most goals and score the fewest.  Not surprisingly, that particular combination saw them in last place when the regular season was called.  Things weren’t better in the Draft Lottery either as they fell as far as they were allowed to, dropping from first to fourth in the order.  With that negativity out of the way, here is what Detroit will need to accomplish to have a successful offseason.

Find A Long-Term Goaltending Solution

For years, Jimmy Howard has been entrenched between the pipes in Detroit.  But that time has all but certainly come to an end after posting a 4.20 GAA with a .882 SV% in 27 starts this season.  He lost all but two of those games.  If that type of performance somehow isn’t enough to scare GM Steve Yzerman off, Howard is also now 36.  On a rebuilding team, a goalie that age can’t be part of the long-term solution.

Neither can Jonathan Bernier even though he had a pretty good year all things considered with a 2.95 GAA and a .907 SV% in his 46 appearances.  Those numbers aren’t great but given the team in front of him, he did okay.  He’ll turn 32 next month and while he’s signed for next season to fill part of their goaltending tandem, he is more of a platoon option at this stage of his career instead of a full-time starter.  He can be a piece of the puzzle but not the key one.

There are going to be a handful of starting goalies that hit the open market in November, barring any extensions to stick around.  Yzerman has ample cap space at his disposal with just over $46MM in commitments for next season to 11 players so there is plenty of wiggle room to work with.  They should be showing considerable interest in each of those options.

Detroit could also take a look at Yaroslav Askarov in the draft in October.  He’s widely considered to be the top goalie available and one of the better ones to be available for a while.  However, drafting goalies early is often considered a risk and selecting him fourth would be well above where his rankings suggest he should go.  However, the Red Wings went ‘off the board’ a bit last year with defenseman Moritz Seider so taking their guy earlier than expected is something they could certainly do which would free them up to look a veteran platoon option to hold things down while Askarov works his way into being NHL-ready.

New Deal For Mantha

Two years ago, Anthony Mantha signed a bridge contract coming off his entry-level deal.  The decision made sense as he hadn’t quite established himself as a consistent top liner.  There were flashes of him living up to his potential but other times where he wasn’t making a big impact.

That started to change last season as he became a bigger threat, matching his career high offensively from the season before despite missing 15 games due to injury.  He was on pace for an even better performance this season except that knee and lung issues limited him to just 43 games before the pandemic hit.  That’s not the best leverage heading into talks for his next deal even with salary arbitration rights.

The salary landscape certainly doesn’t help either.  The freezing of the salary cap is not conducive to handing out the big-money deal that Mantha was certainly hoping to get and with his platform year being basically cut in half, this feels like a situation where there is a lot of work to do.

From Mantha’s standpoint, another short-term deal may be desired.  If he does that, stays healthy, and is able to continue his offensive improvement, he’ll be well-positioned a year from now to cash in, even with the cap limitations still in effect.  In the end, he’d probably come out with more money than he’d get by signing a long-term deal now.  Of course, a deal that buys out several UFA-eligible years is certainly Yzerman’s preference to help ensure that one of their pillars will stick around.  Getting this done should be at the top of his to-do list in the coming months.

Rebuild The Back End

Of the eight defensemen that were on Detroit’s roster to end the season, three are unrestricted free agents that almost certainly won’t be back in Jonathan Ericsson, Trevor Daley, and Cody Goloubef (who was added on waivers less than three weeks before their season ended).  Mike Green (traded to Edmonton) is already gone.  Needless to say, there are some vacancies that need to be filled.

Filip Hronek looks like a long-term piece and Seider, though not yet ready to play in their top four, should get there eventually as well.  After that, there are some question marks.  Dennis Cholowski and Gustav Lindstrom have shown some promise but aren’t ready to take on a big role yet either while projected returnees Patrik Nemeth, Alex Biega, and Madison Bowey (RFA) are role players, not impact ones either.  There are some other prospects on the horizon but none that are ready to step in and play right away.

As a result, there are a few spots up for grabs and they can’t all be filled internally.  Whether it’s the free agent market, trades, or both, the Red Wings need to make a splash or two to give their defense corps a significant boost.  If they can’t accomplish that, it may not matter who they have between the pipes in the end.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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