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Offseason Keys 2020

Offseason Keys: Calgary Flames

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As teams are eliminated from the playoffs, it means that the offseason has arrived for several more squads.  Having covered the teams that weren’t a part of the NHL’s return and the ones ousted in the Qualifying Round, we shift our focus to the ones that were eliminated in the official first round.  Next up is a look at Calgary.

It has certainly been a disappointing last year and a half for the Flames.  After a quick exit at the hands of Colorado in the 2019 playoffs, GM Brad Treliving didn’t shake things up too much and instead just tweaked a few veteran players.  Things weren’t much better this season.  Bill Peters resigned following reports of abusive behaviour in the past and the team played a bit better when assistant Geoff Ward took over in an interim role (and was promoted to the full-time spot just yesterday).  However, it didn’t yield much in the way of playoff success; although they beat Winnipeg in the Qualifying Round, they were taken out by Dallas soon after.  This time around, bigger changes are expected meaning there is a lot at stake for Calgary this offseason.

Determine The Size Of The Forward Shakeup

When a team bows out quicker than expected once, it’s understandable if a GM decides to give that core group another chance if he believes that they can turn it around.  When it happens a second time in as many years as is the case here, patience isn’t going to be as justifiable.  The decision to give Ward the permanent head coaching position takes one of Treliving’s potential cards out of play which means the changes are going to have to come from their personnel.

Two of their top offensive players in center Sean Monahan and winger Johnny Gaudreau are coming off of quiet regular seasons.  After putting up 99 points a year ago, Gaudreau’s output dropped to just 58 while Monahan went from 82 to 48.  Yes, missing the final dozen games due to the pandemic skews the numbers a little but it was still a big letdown nonetheless.  Things weren’t much better in the playoffs either.  Gaudreau had seven points in 10 games but all but one came with the man advantage.  The ratio was only slightly better for Monahan who had five of his eight points on the power play.  Gaudreau has two years left and Monahan has three.  Treliving will need to decide if he’s willing to shake up the core with one of them potentially being moved or if he’ll dip a little deeper into his roster.

If he opts for the latter, Mark Jankowski is a likely trade candidate following a dreadful seven points in 56 games while Derek Ryan could be expendable in his walk year.  But moving those two players isn’t going to move the needle very much.  How much confidence does Treliving have in his forward group?  We’re going to find out soon enough.

Find A Starting Goalie

With David Rittich coming off of a nice rookie season, the decision to go out and add Cam Talbot in free agency made sense for Calgary.  Talbot was someone that was coming off of a tough year but had shown himself to be capable of playing more than a typical backup.  He’d bring a bit of upside while being an insurance policy for the inexperienced Rittich.

The results were mixed.  Talbot played a bit less than expected but put up his best numbers in several years.  That was the good news.  The bad news was that Rittich took a big step back.  It was telling that Talbot made every postseason start as well.

Talbot now hits the open market as one of the more intriguing goalies out there.  There aren’t going to be many starting opportunities available but he is well-positioned to land at least a stronger platoon role than what he had this year.  Rittich, meanwhile, is signed for another year at $2.75MM before being eligible for unrestricted free agency himself in 2021.

At this point, it’s hard to envision either of the two goalies being considered for the starting spot next season.  These next few weeks figure to feature a lot of movement between the pipes between trades and free agency.  With their prospects not being ready for prime time duty just yet, the Flames need to add a more proven starter ahead of Rittich if they want to head into next season feeling more confident about their chances.

Reshape The Defense

The back end has been a staple of the Flames for a while now but changes are on the horizon.  No fewer than five veteran defenders are set to hit the open market next month in T.J. Brodie, Travis Hamonic, Derek Forbort, Erik Gustafsson, and Michael Stone.  With more than $64MM in commitments already for next season to just 14 players, it’s unlikely that they’ll be able to bring back more than one of Brodie or Hamonic while Forbort and Gustafsson will likely find bigger roles if they go elsewhere.

As things stand, just three veterans are under contract for next season in Mark Giordano, Noah Hanifin, and Rasmus Andersson (whose six-year extension is set to come into effect).  Juuso Valimaki is also signed and on his entry-level deal but he missed all of this season after tearing his ACL last summer while training.  He’s likely going to be on the team but counting on him to have a big role would be risky considering how much time he missed.  Oliver Kylington is a restricted free agent and should be back as well but he is more of a depth option at this point as is Alexander Yelesin who enters the final year of his deal.  College free agency signing Connor Mackey is worth keeping an eye on but it’s unlikely he’d step into an impact role right away either.

This presents an opportunity for the Flames to reshape things a bit.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see them try to funnel a bit of their previous spending either into adding a more prominent goalie or some more firepower up front.  If they can’t bring back one of Brodie or Hamonic, they’ll likely have to try to add a new rearguard or two.  Depth defenders are available in free agency but if they want a top-four option, they’ll likely have to turn to the trade market and if it’s an impact defenseman that they want to add, it’ll take more than a depth forward or two to get one.  Changes appear to be on the way for Calgary’s defensive group.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Arizona Coyotes

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As teams are eliminated from the playoffs, it means that the offseason has arrived for several more squads.  Having covered the teams that weren’t a part of the NHL’s return and the ones ousted in the Qualifying Round, we shift our focus to the ones that were eliminated in the official first round.  Next up is a look at Arizona.

On the ice, 2019-20 was a decent one for the Coyotes.  They got past Nashville in the Qualifying Round before being ousted by Colorado but it was still their first playoff appearance since 2011-12.  They have a solid defense corps and two good goalies and several foundational pieces under contract.  But things aren’t exactly looking up.  Their GM resigned, they were stripped of two high draft picks, and as a small-market team, the pandemic could hit them harder than most; Katie Strang of The Athletic reported (Twitter link) last week that they were late on some signing bonus payments although that has since been resolved.  As a result, there’s a lot to do on their to-do list over the coming months and plenty of questions along the way.

Hire New GM

First things first.  Before making important decisions on what to do with their roster, the Coyotes need to decide who is making the decisions.  Following the strange and very public resignation of John Chayka, assistant GM Steve Sullivan has taken on the interim role for the time being and will certainly garner consideration to take on the role on a full-time basis.

A handful of names have been linked to Arizona in their search so far including Pittsburgh assistant GM Jason Karmanos, Canadiens scout Sean Burke, and broadcaster Pierre McGuire though the latter has since been ruled out of contention.  The one thing that stands out right away is a lack of GM experience which suggests they’re looking for a first-time option that likely will come a little cheaper than some of the more prominent veteran options and at a time where revenues are minimal at best, that’s not a small thing either.

One thing they’ll have to decide on is what type of GM they want.  Chayka was a strong proponent of significant use of analytics and that has yielded some mixed results along the way.  Do they continue in that direction or look for someone with a different mindset?

With the draft and free agency both less than a month away now, this isn’t a decision that can realistically be put off for much longer.  While it’s possible that Sullivan could guide them through those two events while still retaining the interim tag which would save some money in the short term, that would take away an opportunity if someone other than Sullivan gets the job to remake the team.  Accordingly, this is something that should be addressed in the near future.

Re-Sign Hall

I’m not sure how realistic this is but it simply can’t go without mentioning that re-signing the top free agent forward that’s set to hit the open market next month would be a huge boost for Arizona’s offseason.  The Coyotes surprised many by adding the 2018 Hart Trophy winner in a midseason trade from New Jersey and while his numbers don’t jump off the chart, he was an important player for them in the second half of the season and in the playoffs and retaining him would give their forward group a big lift.

However, how much is that going to cost?  Two years ago, it seemed like Hall was well on his way to an eight-figure AAV.  While unprecedented (at the time) for a winger, he looked to have turned the corner with New Jersey.  Things haven’t gone as well since then.  In fact, thanks to injuries last season and the pandemic this year, his combined point total over that span is actually lower than his Hart-winning campaign.  Between that and revenues bottoming out, it’s safe to take the $10MM-plus price tag off the table.

But it’s also safe to say that he’s going to get a raise on the $6MM he made on his most recent deal and certainly more than the $3MM that Arizona was responsible for with the Devils retaining half of his salary and cap hit as part of the trade.  That’s going to be difficult for them to accomplish (more on that shortly).

On top of the financial challenge, Hall has also stated that going to a winning team will be a priority for him.  For all of the talent he has, he has been in the playoffs twice in his 10-year career and had it not been for the expanded format due to the pandemic, he wouldn’t have made it this year.  Convincing Hall that the Coyotes will be a contender for years to come with him will be a challenge, especially without the ability to spend top dollar and, for now at least, no GM in place.  Getting Hall locked up would be a huge boon to their offseason if they could pull it off but they have their work cut out for them.

Free Up Cap Space

Let’s talk about that cap situation in more detail.  Hall coming off the books only frees up $3MM which isn’t much to work with.  Carl Soderberg’s $4.75MM AAV is also off the books as is Brad Richardson’s $1.25MM but adding those three up might be what it takes to re-sign Hall let alone having to fill Soderberg and Richardson’s roster spots.

On top of that, the Coyotes also have new contracts for two key players starting next season.  Starting goalie Darcy Kuemper gets a raise from $1.85MM to $4.5MM while Clayton Keller bypassing a bridge contract means he goes from his entry-level salary of less than $900K to $7.15MM.  On top of that, he hit some performance bonuses which has left them with an overage of nearly $400K to roll over to 2020-21, per CapFriendly.  (That can be amortized over two years but it wouldn’t make much of a difference considering the relatively low amount.)

All told, Arizona has a little over $80MM in commitments for next season already, excluding the bonus penalty.  Granted, that includes Marian Hossa and his $5.275MM AAV which will once again be LTIR-bound but that still doesn’t give them much room to work with.  Forget about re-signing Hall for a moment, they probably need to free up room simply to fill out the rest of their roster.

Speculatively speaking, this could be an opportunity to deal one of their defensemen.  Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s ($8.25MM) name has come up in speculation already but moving their captain would open up a big hole on their back end.  Alternatively, they could look to move one of Alex Goligoski ($5.475MM) or Niklas Hjalmarsson ($5MM); while both are pricey, they have one year left on their contracts and it’s a weak free agent market.  Up front, Michael Grabner is a big threat shorthanded but he was a healthy scratch at times and his $3.35MM price tag is a bit expensive for that.  Backup goalie Antti Raanta ($4.25MM) also looks expendable.

If they can find a team that is willing to take on some salary, Arizona should be looking for draft picks in return.  They dealt their 2020 first-rounder for Hall and lost their 2021 first-rounder and 2020 second-round pick for fitness testing violations.  Between those and other moves, they have one pick total out of the first three rounds over the next two years.  On top of that, they dealt their 2017 first-round pick in blueline prospect Pierre-Oliver Joseph to Pittsburgh as part of the Phil Kessel trade.  The cupboards are getting bare and finding a way to restock those while freeing up some cap space will be important.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Washington Capitals

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As teams are eliminated from the playoffs, it means that the offseason has arrived for several more squads.  Having covered the teams that weren’t a part of the NHL’s return and the ones ousted in the Qualifying Round, we shift our focus to the ones that were eliminated in the official first round.  Next up is a look at Washington.

During the regular season, things were looking up for Washington.  They were sitting in first place when the pandemic hit and it looked as if they’d be a team that could have some staying power in the playoffs.  That didn’t happen.  Instead, they were ousted by the Islanders in the first round and one big change has already happened with Todd Reirden being let go as head coach (he has since rejoined Pittsburgh as an assistant).  Now, with a flattened salary cap, GM Brian MacLellan is going to have some tough decisions to make for next season which highlight their keys over the next few months.

Find A New Coach

Let’s get the obvious out of the way first.  With Reirden out behind the bench, Washington needs to hire a new head coach.  Perhaps more importantly at this stage though, they have to decide what type of coach they’re looking for.  With Barry Trotz, they had someone who emphasized structure and when he left to go to the Islanders (who eliminated them), Reirden was promoted from his staff for some continuity.  Do they look for another coach like Trotz or would they be better off with a more free-flowing style?

Firepower is not a concern for the Capitals.  They have plenty of it even after losing some players to cap constraints in recent years.  But despite finishing second in the league in scoring, they were led by a defenseman in points and John Carlson was the only one to average better than a point per game.  If they were to open up more offensively, they’d be an even bigger threat.  On the other hand, they’re set to be led between the pipes by Ilya Samsonov in his sophomore year next season while their back end isn’t the strongest so playing a bit more conservatively has its advantages as well.

One thing seems to be certain at this point, their focus is on a veteran as Peter Laviolette, Mike Babcock, and Gerard Gallant are three candidates that have interviewed for the position.  MacLellan himself has said an experienced coach is a priority after having a rookie in Reirden.  Right now, they have some time to work with but if they want someone in place for the draft and free agency, they’ll need to make a final decision within the next month.

Ovechkin Extension Talks

If it seems like so long ago that Alex Ovechkin signed his current contract, it’s because it has indeed been a long time.  About twelve-and-a-half years, in fact.  His 13-year, $124MM contract that was signed back in January of 2008 looked exorbitant at the time but it has in fact worked out quite well for both sides.  Ovechkin has become one of the top goal-scorers in NHL history and a franchise icon while the team won its first Stanley Cup back in 2018.

Now that he’s set to enter the final year of his contract, he’s eligible to sign a contract extension.  His next deal will be subject to 35-plus provisions (unless it’s uniform in salary throughout the duration) but that shouldn’t have an impact on things.  It’s safe to say that Ovechkin will be looking for a deal that takes him to retirement but the big question will be how many more years does he want to play?  He’s still several years away from taking aim at the all-time goals scored mark which may very well play a role in how long this next deal is.  Money, of course, matters too but he remains a top offensive threat so it stands to reason that his next contract should wind up around a similar price tag as his current $9.538MM AAV.

This isn’t a case where Washington needs to get a deal done or consider trading him over the risk of losing him for nothing.  Most would likely classify Ovechkin’s next contract as a matter of when, not if.  But getting something done now would give MacLellan some much-needed certainty in terms of knowing how much (or little) money he has left for 2021-22 and beyond.  That could, in turn, impact what types of deals they do in the weeks ahead.  It’s not a must-do at this point but it would be beneficial for both sides to get it done now.

Replace Holtby

The in-season extension given to Nicklas Backstrom was the final nail in the coffin for Braden Holtby’s chances of re-signing with Washington unless he wants to sign for less than market value.  Assuming that’s the case, they’ll need to find a backup for Samsonov who will be in his first season as a starter.

There are two in-house options for the position but neither one is particularly strong.  Pheonix Copley was their backup in 2018-19, earning himself a three-year deal in the process.  However, he’s not the type of goalie that they should be comfortable asking for roughly 30 games from next season as Samsonov is unlikely to jump into a top workload after making just 22 starts this year.  Prospect Vitek Vanecek has some upside and did well with AHL Hershey this season but is he ready for a full-time NHL spot?  It’s certainly not a guarantee.

While one of those two would provide more cap flexibility (Copley’s AAV is $1.1MM while Copley’s is just over $716K), they would put a lot of pressure on Samsonov.  Accordingly, a more proven veteran goalie would certainly be a safer play, albeit a more expensive one.  While it’s unlikely that they’d shop at the higher end of that market, they could still get someone around the $2MM to $2.5MM mark that would give them a bit more security.  But with limited cap space and a pair of blueliners (Brenden Dillon and Radko Gudas) set to hit the open market, it’s going to be a tough decision to make.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Carolina Hurricanes

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As teams are eliminated from the playoffs, it means that the offseason has arrived for several more squads.  Having covered the teams that weren’t a part of the NHL’s return and the ones ousted in the Qualifying Round, we shift our focus to the ones that were eliminated in the official first round.  Next up is a look at Carolina.

After what many would call a Cinderella playoff run a year ago, the Hurricanes picked up where they left off this season and found themselves in a postseason position before the pandemic hit.  From there, they made short work of the Rangers, a popular sleeper pick, in the Qualifying Round and it looked like they might be on their way again.  However, Boston stopped them in their tracks to end their season.  While it ended on a sour note, it seems unlikely that Carolina will make a bunch of changes but some tweaks may be on the menu.  Here’s what GM Don Waddell should be looking to accomplish over the coming months.

Look Into Goalie Upgrade

On the surface, suggesting that a team that allowed the sixth-fewest goals in the league this season needs a goalie upgrade would seem a little strange.  However, it’s certainly an area that could be improved upon and it’s looking like this could be an offseason where there is more goalie movement than usual so the timing may be right.

Petr Mrazek and James Reimer have both been starters for stretches of their careers and backups for others due to their inconsistency.  Mrazek had the larger share of the workload but only managed a .905 SV% this season which is well below average for a starter.  Reimer fared better at a .914 mark but in 15 fewer games.  Between the two of them, they combined for a .908 SV% which isn’t great and looks a bit worse when you consider they play in front of one of the better defense corps in the league and allowed the second-fewest shots during the regular season at 29.3 per game.

Both netminders are also a year away from unrestricted free agency.  At this point, it doesn’t seem likely that both would be brought back and the team still has hopes for Alex Nedeljkovic to be part of their future plans as well.

With that in mind, why not look to try to upgrade?  At the very least, they’ve been linked to Toronto’s Frederik Andersen already and there will undoubtedly be others as well.  With Mrazek and Reimer, the Hurricanes have a reasonable floor to work with between the pipes but even finding a small upgrade during the offseason goalie shuffle would be an important step and it’s something that should be attainable.

Extension Talks

Late last month, Waddell indicated that there’s no timetable to work on contract extensions for two of his top players but that he hopes to work on new deals for winger Andrei Svechnikov and defenseman Dougie Hamilton sooner than later.  Knowing that both are in line for considerable raises, getting early extensions done would go a long way towards providing some certainty towards what they’ll have to spend beyond 2020-21 which could have an impact on what types of other additions they target in the coming months.

The 20-year-old Svechnikov took a big step forward offensively this season, finishing third on the team in scoring with 24 goals and 37 assists in 68 games.  He did so without a major jump in playing time as well as he logged just 16:44 per night.  There’s room for a bigger role and with it, the potential for another offensive jump next season.  Accordingly, it’s reasonable to think that a long-term deal will cost more a year from now if one of the two sides opt to wait.  On the other hand, with the salary cap projected to only increase minimally for the next few years now due to the pandemic, Svechnikov becomes a candidate for a bridge contract which is something they could try to work out now to get that cost certainty in place.

As for Hamilton, he was in the midst of a career year before fracturing his fibula on mid-January.  Before that injury, he was just shy of a point per game (40 points in 43 contests) while logging 23:17 per game, a new career best.  He also got into five playoff games (after missing the Qualifying Round series against the Rangers with another injury), picking up a goal and an assist while playing nearly 25 minutes a night.  With his performance this season, Hamilton has shown himself to be capable of being a top-pairing defenseman which makes his current $5.75MM cap hit look like quite a bargain.  He’ll be 28 when he hits the open market and will be in the prime of his career so even with the cap projections not being what they were earlier this season, he’s going to be in line for a big raise.  Hamilton is a big part of Carolina’s back end and locking him up on a long-term deal would be a big win for them this offseason and ensure that another foundational piece sticks around.

Add A Secondary Scoring Upgrade

With Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho, and Teuvo Teravainen, the Hurricanes have a strong top line offensively.  All three managed to pick up more than 60 points in the pandemic-shortened campaign which is quite good.  However, they were the only three forwards to have more than 37 points.  Only two players managed to reach the 20-goal mark while Martin Necas (who was fourth in points with 36) may have had a shot at it had the regular season not been ended early.

On paper, Carolina has quite a few players that should fit that bill.  Nino Niederreiter was great in his first season with the team but tapered off this season while Jordan Staal’s output has dropped in recent years as well.  Ryan Dzingel was brought in to replace Justin Williams (who eventually came back) but he wasn’t even able to hold down a regular spot in the lineup.  Vincent Trocheck was added at the trade deadline but was quiet in his first action with his new team.

Optimistically speaking, some of those players should be better next season and that in itself should help.  But adding someone to replace Williams and do the job that Dzingel hasn’t would go a long way towards helping secure a reliable second offensive trio which is something they will need to get back to being a playoff threat for next season and beyond.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Columbus Blue Jackets

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As teams are eliminated from the playoffs, it means that the offseason has arrived for several more squads.  Having covered the teams that weren’t a part of the NHL’s return and the ones ousted in the Qualifying Round, we shift our focus to the ones that were eliminated in the official first round.  Next up is a look at Columbus.

Last season, the Blue Jackets surprised many, stifling a high-powered attack before being ousted in the playoffs.  This year, it was more of the same as they eliminated Toronto before Tampa Bay exacted some revenge for 2019 to end their year.  What’s particularly impressive is that Columbus was able to do so despite losing several of their top players in free agency without much in the way of replacements coming in, with all due respect to Gustav Nyquist.  Now, GM Jarmo Kekalainen will be tasked with trying to find some of those replacements to give their attack a much-needed boost for next season.

Add Impact Center

One thing that Matt Duchene brought to the table a year ago was the ability to have a strong one-two punch with Pierre-Luc Dubois.  But when Duchene signed in Nashville, they weren’t able to fill that spot externally and instead had to promote from within.  Their top options were Boone Jenner who in four years hasn’t surpassed 18 goals after scoring 30 in 2015-16 and Alexander Wennberg who had all of two goals in 75 games in 2018-19.  To their credit, they made it work even though the two only combined for 16 goals in 127 contests this season.

But just because they got away with a weak group down the middle this season doesn’t mean it’s a recipe for success down the road.  Look at the teams that were ahead of them in the Metropolitan Division and there is one commonality – a strong group of centers.  To take a step forward in the regular season standings and not rely on pushing for a Wild Card spot, this is an area that has to be improved.

Unfortunately for the Blue Jackets (and any other team looking for help down the middle), the unrestricted free agent market isn’t going to solve the problem as there isn’t much help available there.  This is something that will need to be addressed by a trade and after making several trade splashes to bolster last year’s run, the prospect and draft pick cupboards aren’t quite as stocked as they once were.  But if they want to take that next step forward, this is something that Kekalainen will need to find a way to address.

Sign Dubois

Nearly a third of their roster is slated to be a restricted free agent this offseason but among those, Dubois is in a class of his own.  While his point total dipped this season (49 points in 71 games) thanks to the pandemic, he played close to his point-per-game pace from 2018-19 that saw him collect 61 points.  More importantly, he is unquestionably the top center the Blue Jackets have, a role that certainly boosts his leverage heading into contract talks.

Before the pandemic, many teams have been trying to lock up their top young stars to deals that may be a little pricey at the beginning but have the potential to be bargains by the end as they continue to improve and the salary cap goes up.  That last part isn’t going to be in play for a few years at least until fans are able to be back in arenas and the new television deal in the United States is completed.

In the meantime, the internal discussion for both sides will be weighing the pros and cons of a bridge deal versus a long-term contract.  For Dubois, waiting a couple of years to get a long-term deal certainly makes some sense as he’ll have arbitration eligibility and likely a preferable financial landscape.  On the other hand, if his offense doesn’t progress beyond that 60-point level, the earnings upside may not be as high then as it is now.  From Kekalainen’s perspective, working towards a long-term contract is almost certainly the preferred option unless the asking price is exceptionally high.  They’ll need to find some common ground over the next few months.

An offer sheet is a possibility but Columbus should have enough cap space to dissuade one from being made.  They’ll need to dip into LTIR this time around but with Brandon Dubinsky’s career likely over, they’ll have up to his $5.85MM AAV at their disposal to give them some extra wiggle room which should be enough to make teams look elsewhere.

Add Power Play Help

Production with the man advantage has been an issue for the last couple of years to the point where it has cost two assistant coaches their jobs in recent months.  Their two top goal-getters on the power play were a defenseman (Zach Werenski) and a rookie forward that had half of his goal total come in this situation in Emil Bemstrom.  Each had five goals.  That’s not a bad total but it certainly shouldn’t be leading the team either.

If you’re thinking that the departures of Duchene and Artemi Panarin had a lot to do with that, the thought would certainly make some sense.  But technically speaking, the Blue Jackets had a better power play this season (16.4%) vs the year prior (15.4%).  It was only a little over 17% in 2017-18 as well; it’s not as if this is a short-term problem.  Instead, it’s clearly a lingering issue.

Obviously, shoring up the center position should help things in theory.  But they were in better shape down the middle a year ago and it didn’t make a dent in that department.  Different schemes have been tried and the results have been the same.  Accordingly, Kekalainen may be looking to add a power play specialist or two.  These players may not quite fit the type of style that John Tortorella wants to see but even some incremental upgrades with the man advantage should be enough to get them out of the basement offensively which is where they basically were this season with only one Eastern team (Detroit) scoring fewer goals than they did.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Chicago Blackhawks

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As teams are eliminated from the playoffs, it means that the offseason has arrived for several more squads.  Having covered the teams that weren’t a part of the NHL’s return and the ones ousted in the Qualifying Round, we shift our focus to the ones that were eliminated in the official first round.  Next up is a look at Chicago.

The regular season wasn’t kind to the Blackhawks as when the pandemic hit, they were well out of playoff contention and had already traded their starting goalie to Vegas.  However, they were among the teams invited back in the NHL’s Return to Play and they made their presence felt as they eliminated Edmonton before falling to the Golden Knights with Robin Lehner between the pipes.  While Chicago now has some momentum off what was shaping up to be a tough year, GM Stan Bowman has some work to do this offseason.

Free Up Cap Space

Over the last couple of years, Chicago was able to get out from under their perpetual salary cap concerns.  The flattening of next year’s Upper Limit will put them right back into that familiar refrain of cap difficulty, especially since they won’t have the LTIR of Brent Seabrook and Andrew Shaw to rely on as both plan to be ready to return next season.

With those two on the roster, the Blackhawks have more than $74MM in commitments for next season and a lingering bonus overage penalty of more than $877K which can either be taken in full in 2020-21 or split evenly over the next two years.  Out of that remaining cap space, they have three regular forwards in need of new deals including a Calder candidate while neither of the goalies they had to finish the year is under contract.  (More on those two situations shortly.)  Clearly, something has to give.

One of the speculated options would be to use a buyout or two.  Forward Zack Smith, a healthy scratch at times during the year, seems like a logical candidate with a $3.25MM price tag but a back issue at the end of the season could complicate things if he isn’t cleared by the offseason.

On the trade front, defenseman Olli Maatta had a quiet year (though he did better in the playoffs) and isn’t quite living up to his $4.083MM AAV.  Calvin de Haan ($4.55MM) is also pricey and is coming off an injury-plagued year which won’t help his trade value.  Connor Murphy ($3.85MM) is less likely to be moved but may have a bit more value.  With Seabrook and Duncan Keith ($5.538MM) on the books and not being moved, trimming from their veteran rearguards to save some cap space is a logical place to look but other options will have to be considered as well.

One way or another, the Blackhawks are back in familiar territory where they will have to trim from their roster to keep the rest of it intact.  Until that happens, they’ll be limited with what they can do this offseason.

Re-Sign Or Replace Crawford

When Chicago traded Lehner to Vegas, it opened up the starting role to once again be filled by Corey Crawford and he held his own down the stretch and in the playoffs.  However, the 35-year-old is set to become an unrestricted free agent in October and while he indicated last week that he’s leaning towards staying in Chicago, having the starting role will ultimately play a role in that decision.

What’s the right price tag to keep Crawford around?  His expiring deal carries a $6MM AAV which may be a bit on the high side but not by too much.  Platoon goalies have been exceeding $3MM over the last few years and Crawford, if he re-signs, is at least going to at least be lined up for playing time equivalent to someone on the strong side of a platoon.  With minimal cap space to bring in a quality backup, perhaps he’d be up for even more game action which would only bolster his negotiating leverage.  As a result, it’s out of the realm of possibility that Crawford’s next contract winds up close to the $5MM in salary he received this season.  If that happens, most of their cap space will be wiped out in the process.

It’s also worth that Malcolm Subban, acquired as part of the Lehner trade, is a restricted free agent.  It’s possible that he could return while Collin Delia and Kevin Lankinen could be in the mix as well.  If Crawford stays, they’ll have to go with a cheaper backup option which means one of those three would likely be his backup.

But if Crawford decides to go elsewhere, Bowman may have to change plans quickly.  There aren’t many proven starters available in free agency and the ones that are will likely command more than Crawford.  In that case, Chicago may have to pivot back to their strategy from this season with a platoon.  Out of their backup options, none are qualified for that role so the Blackhawks may then have to shop for a new tandem altogether despite not having much to spend.  If Crawford stays, things are pretty simple but if not, things get a lot more complicated quickly.

Kubalik Deal

Of the three regular forwards that are set to become restricted free agents, winger Dominik Kubalik is the most intriguing one.  Contract negotiations are based on comparable players and situations but when it comes to Kubalik, there are no real comparable circumstances.  There have been plenty of 30-goal scorers that hit restricted free agency but as a 24-year-old in his first season in North America?  That’s a new one.  Add in arbitration eligibility due to his age and you have the makings for a case to keep an eye on.

Given his limited NHL track record and their salary cap situation, a short-term contract is all but a certainty.  After making $925K in base salary plus signing bonuses this season (he also hit half of his ‘A’ bonuses for $425K), he’s looking at a sizable raise and could conceivably surpass $3MM, even on a one-year deal.  Kubalik finished in the top-20 in goals this season with that low price tag.  Of the others in that group, the next cheapest player was Florida’s Mike Hoffman at just under $5.2MM.  The majority of the players in that group can’t be used as comparables in an arbitration filing as they were UFA-aged deals but it just goes to show how impressive his rookie performance was.

The futures of their other two forward RFAs (Dylan Strome and Drake Caggiula) are in question.  The former has been in trade speculation dating back to the regular season while the latter could be a non-tender candidate to save some money.  There is no such question with Kubalik.  Instead, it’s just a matter of when he signs and for how much.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Toronto Maple Leafs

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As teams are eliminated from the playoffs, it means that the offseason has arrived for several more squads.  Having covered the teams that weren’t a part of the NHL’s return, we shift our focus to the ones that have been ousted.  Next up is a look at Toronto.

After being ousted by Boston in the playoffs last year, the Maple Leafs made one big trade but largely brought back the same roster for this season.  After scuffling out of the gate, they made a coaching change, bringing in Sheldon Keefe to replace Mike Babcock.  However, they were on the playoff bubble before the pandemic hit and they wound up falling to Columbus in the Qualifying Round.  GM Kyle Dubas has already made one move of note with the Kasperi Kapanen to Pittsburgh trade to free up some cap space but there is still some work to be done.  Here’s an overview of what they’ll likely be looking to tackle.

Reshape The Back End

Toronto’s big four up front are well-known as is their cost as they take up a little more than half of the $81.5MM Upper Limit.  Not surprisingly, to be able to afford them, they’ve had to cut back at other positions, particularly defense.  As things stand, the discrepancy between spending up front and on the back end is likely to increase with veterans Cody Ceci and Tyson Barrie slated to be unrestricted free agents this offseason and are likely to be replaced with cheaper options.

Fortunately for the Leafs, they have some players on entry-level contracts that can step into a bigger role for next season.  Rasmus Sandin acquitted himself well in his first taste of NHL action while Mikko Lehtonen had a dominant season in the KHL to get him on the NHL radar.  Timothy Liljegren is also in the mix.  However, for a team that has eyes on contending, shuffling them in without adding more proven help would be risky.

An impact top-four option (what Barrie was supposed to be) would be ideal to take some pressure off Morgan Rielly and Jake Muzzin.  In particular, finding a right-shot defender to play alongside Rielly would be particularly beneficial as Justin Holl, not too far removed from being a seventh defenseman, is probably not an ideal long-term fit on that top pairing.

Of course, it’s one thing to want to add proven blueliners but it’s another to be able to afford it.  Even with the Kapanen trade, they don’t project to have much in the way of cap space when they re-signing their pending free agents and fill out the roster.  They may have a bit of room but hardly enough to add the type of player they need.  It may take moving out another mid-tier forward to do so (even if it takes away more depth, something Dubas indicated he was concerned with doing) but it’s a price they’re going to have to be willing to pay to shore this position up.

Make A Goaltending Decision

Frederik Andersen has been the undisputed starter for Toronto for the past four years since they acquired him in 2016.  Over that time, he has been consistently inconsistent.  There have been moments where he has simply been dominant despite facing a barrage of shots and others where he has struggled considerably.  In the end though, there hasn’t been much in the way of variation in his numbers with his GAA ranging from 2.67 to 2.85 while before this season, his save percentage had been .917 or .918 each year.  (This season, it dipped to .908.)

The 30-year-old has been on somewhat of a below-market deal since coming to Toronto as a $5MM AAV is on the low side for a guaranteed starting goalie.  However, that contract is up a year from now which means they’ll soon have a decision to make.  He’s eligible for an extension although his agent Claude Lemieux told Postmedia’s Terry Koshan that there have been no discussions to that end yet.  As things stand, it appears as if the Maple Leafs are kicking the tires on a possible trade but if that doesn’t materialize, they’ll have to decide if they want to pursue an extension or let him enter his walk year.

Part of the challenge for Toronto, naturally, is their cap situation.  With so much money committed up front, they’re not going to be able to contend for a top-end starter on the open market.  They’re going to have to go with someone that’s a tier below and Andersen, at a similar price to what he’s making now, could certainly be in that mix.  If they decide that they want to move on, dealing him before free agency opens up would allow them to get involved there although it’s not the deepest of free agent classes.

They will at least have some stability at the backup position with Jack Campbell’s new two-year deal set to kick in.  But for the first time in a while, their starting goalie situation doesn’t seem as secure.

Add Grit

Dubas hasn’t hidden the fact that his plan has been to load Toronto up with as much raw talent as possible in an effort to maximize their scoring opportunities.  Given their lack of playoff success, that plan hasn’t quite worked out as intended and he has made a bit of an effort to add some size and grit to their roster with the pickup of Muzzin a year ago and Kyle Clifford as part of the Campbell acquisition.

Clifford’s future with the team is uncertain at this point – while he fit in well after being acquired, their cap limitations make it unlikely that they’ll be able to retain the pending free agent at his $1.6MM price tag (the Kings retained half of that in the trade).  He’s someone they may look to replace if they can’t keep him but finding some that adds that element can play higher in the lineup would be more beneficial as would adding another defenseman that can play that way.

Dubas has suggested with some recent comments that he has a better understanding of the usefulness of having some grit on the roster, joking at his conference call recently that he’d like to add another player like Muzzin.  That may not be possible but finding other players who can bring an edge to the table would still make a difference.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Minnesota Wild

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As teams are eliminated from the playoffs, it means that the offseason has arrived for several more squads.  Having covered the teams that weren’t a part of the NHL’s return, we shift our focus to the ones that have been ousted.  Next up is a look at Minnesota.

This season was another one that could be classified as same old, same old for the Wild.  They weren’t bad enough to be in the lottery nor were they good enough to be in the playoffs under the normal format.  They ended their regular season on a better note following the coaching change from Bruce Boudreau to Dean Evason but it didn’t translate to much success in the play-in against Vancouver.  GM Bill Guerin certainly has some work to do over the coming months which will include these key items.

Add An Impact Center

This one has been at the top of their to-do list for a while now and unfortunately for Minnesota, this isn’t the best year to try to get one.  The UFA market is bereft of top pivots and trading for a top liner is probably something they’re not going to be able to do either.

But even at this point, a capable second liner would be an improvement on their current situation.  Mikko Koivu has seen better days and is a pending unrestricted free agent.  Even if he returns, he’s better suited for a bottom-six role.  Alex Galchenyuk, who has spent a lot of time on the wing and was included as salary ballast in a trade in February, is one of the better centers in this UFA class which says everything you need to know about that group of free agents.  He had some good moments after joining the Wild and it’s possible that he could return.  But given how his last couple of years have gone, that can’t be the only move they make at that position.

On top of that, Eric Staal is only a year away from UFA eligibility.  He’ll be 37 early in the 2021-22 campaign so he’s not going to be in the picture for long, even if he’s brought back.

This will be an interesting situation to follow.  The Wild simply have to make a move (or two) to shore up this position.  Their hand is being forced by their free agent situation and realistically, their only option is to trade for one and other general managers won’t be lining up to throw Guerin a lifeline.  But one way or the other, they need to add at least one notable center in the coming months.

Determine Brodin’s Future

Jonas Brodin has been a key cog on Minnesota’s back end for his entire eight-year NHL career.  However, he has frequently been involved in trade speculation for the last few years.  Minnesota has been looking to shake things up for a while now and an impact defenseman would certainly do that although any move would definitely leave a hole on their back end as well.

The 27-year-old has one year left on his contract which has opened the window for contract extension talks.  Although his offensive numbers typically aren’t the highest (though he had 28 points this season, a new career best), his defensive play and ability to log heavy minutes will have him in line to earn a nice raise on his $4.167MM AAV.

However, the Wild have three blueliners locked up on long-term deals already with Jared Spurgeon and Ryan Suter both making a little over $7.5MM while Mathew Dumba checks in at $6MM.  Can they afford to add a fourth defender at or around that price point?

If the answer is no or they at least can’t agree to terms on a new deal, the time may be right to move Brodin after all.  His below-market deal will be appealing to teams that are looking to make a splash but have limited cap room to work with.  An in-season trade would be harder to pull off with many teams likely to be capped out by then so if there’s no momentum on an extension, a move may be in his future.  That would be one way to try to fill their void down the middle.

Add Goalie Help

A year ago, it seemed unlikely that this would be on Minnesota’s needs list at this time.  Devan Dubnyk was coming off of a solid season and Alex Stalock’s three-year deal was set to kick in.  How quickly things can change.  Dubnyk’s campaign was nothing short of a disaster to the point where a buyout or a trade with considerable salary retention (the maximum is 50%) both have to be on the table.  Stalock did well as a backup but when he was put into the number one role, he faltered a bit.  He’s fine as the second option but bringing Dubnyk back would be risky.

The Wild have Kaapo Kahkonen in the system who is coming off of an outstanding season with AHL Iowa.  However, even though he’s already 24, he only has a couple of years in North America under his belt and is still exempt from waivers.  Another year in the minors to give him some extra development time certainly wouldn’t hurt while handing him the starting role in Minnesota would also be quite risky.

Whether it’s a platoon goalie off the free agent market or someone via trade, it’s hard to envision Minnesota trying to contend next season while returning their same goalie tandem from this season.  Dubnyk’s deal only has one more year left on it anyway so this was something that was going to have to be addressed in the near future.  That time has come a year earlier than expected.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Edmonton Oilers

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As teams are eliminated from the Qualifying Round, it means that the offseason has arrived for several more squads.  Having covered the teams that weren’t a part of the NHL’s return, we shift our focus to the ones that have been ousted.  Next up is a look at Edmonton.

With the top two scorers in the NHL on their roster, the Oilers were a popular pick to do some damage in the playoffs.  Instead, they were ousted by Chicago (the 12th seed) rather handily in the Qualifying Round.  The needs in Edmonton have been the same for a while which means GM Ken Holland’s to-do list may look a little familiar.  However, with minimal cap space to work with, finding a way to address everything could be somewhat of a challenge.

Add Proven Scoring Wingers

Draisaitl (110 points) and McDavid (97 points) led the way offensively this season while Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was third with 61.  They all have one thing in common – they’re all natural centers.  While it’s great to have that type of depth down the middle, an extreme lack of production from the wing often forced the Oilers to shift Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins to the wing in an effort to jumpstart their offense.  To put into perspective how little scoring from the wing they had, Zack Kassian had the most points of any natural winger with 34 which is basically third line production.

There are internal options but they all have flaws.  Kailer Yamamoto showed some chemistry with Draisaitl in the second half of the season but was shut down easily against the Blackhawks.  James Neal had 19 goals but struggled at times to the point where his role had to be limited at times.  Andreas Athanasiou (more on him later) was hit or miss after being acquired while Alex Chiasson unsurprisingly wasn’t able to duplicate his 22-goal campaign from a year ago.  All of these players have a spot on an NHL roster but none of them are impact scorers and only Yamamoto has a shot at getting there.

Of course, Edmonton has another early draft pick in their system in Jesse Puljujarvi.  While he’s already signed for next season in Finland, that deal has an NHL out clause and as Mark Spector of Sportsnet noted earlier this week, talks between his camp and Holland continue to the point where Spector believes that Puljujarvi will indeed sign with the Oilers for next season.  There could be some upside there or he could be more of a tertiary option as he was in his first stint with them.  They need to add someone more proven than him.

Cheap options and marginal upside plays are quite important in a salary cap environment and they will be even more important now with the Upper Limit flattening out.  However, even with $70MM committed already, Holland needs to bring in at least one legitimate consistent offensive threat on the wing; the centers can’t do it all on their own.

Decide Athanasiou’s Future

Just before the trade deadline, Holland made a move to try to bring in scoring help on the wing when he picked up Athanasiou from Detroit in exchange for a pair of second-round picks.  A year removed from a 30-goal season, the move made some sense, even though he was in the midst of a down season.  Played with McDavid or Draisaitl would surely get him going.  Or so they thought.

Instead of playing and producing more, the opposite happened.  He had just a goal and an assist in nine regular season games before the pandemic while he played just over 12 minutes a game.  In the playoffs, he was held off the scoresheet entirely while logging even less ice time at 10:58 per game.  Stylistically speaking, Athanasiou’s speed makes him an ideal fit for an Edmonton team that’s trying to play at a high tempo but the early results weren’t encouraging.

Part of the season that Edmonton surrendered two high draft picks to get him was the fact that he still has two more years of team control; he isn’t eligible for unrestricted free agency until 2022.  While his $3MM cap hit was a bit high for his production this season, the expected increase in the Upper Limit made him an affordable option.  But then the pandemic threw a wrench into all of that.  Now, a $3MM qualifying offer may be too pricey for them to afford.  Yes, it’s possible that he signs for less than that amount but he’d need some incentive to do so and that’s tricky to offer at this time.  It would be a tough outcome if they wind up non-tendering someone that they dealt two good draft picks for just months ago but it is a real option here.  That decision will need to be made fairly quickly as they’ll need to know whether they need to save $3MM from their other planned spending before they can start trying to address some of their other needs.

Find A Second Goalie

Last summer, Edmonton brought in Mike Smith to give them another option behind Mikko Koskinen.  The intrigue with Smith was that he could log more than a typical backup should the unproven Koskinen struggle.

From that standpoint, Smith’s addition was a success.  He actually wound up making more starts than Koskinen (37-33) and it was telling that he got the nod to start against Chicago.  However, the end results weren’t as strong.  Smith had a 2.95 GAA which was 20 points higher than Koskinen while his .902 SV% was 15 points lower.  Edmonton fans certainly don’t want a reminder of Smith’s numbers against Chicago where he was yanked after coughing up five goals in less than half a period.  All of a sudden, it’s fair to question whether the 38-year-old pending unrestricted free agent should be part of the picture again next season or whether they should go in another direction.

Internally, Stuart Skinner and Olivier Rodrigue have some upside but neither is ready for NHL duty just yet so if they do go in another direction, the new goalie will have to come from outside the organization.

The big question is going to be what type of second goalie are they seeking?  Are they looking for a starter that would push Koskinen into a lesser role?  Do they want a platoon mate, similar to what Smith was for them this season?  Or do they think Koskinen is ready for the number one job where they can go for a cheaper backup?

Presumably, the second one is the likeliest target given Koskinen’s inconsistency; having another goalie that can shoulder the starting workload for bits and pieces of the season would be wise.  Fortunately, there are several of those available in free agency although the best ones will cost more than the $2MM plus games played bonuses that Smith received this season which could limit what they spend to fill other areas.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Pittsburgh Penguins

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As teams are eliminated from the Qualifying Round, it means that the offseason has arrived for several more squads.  Having covered the teams that weren’t a part of the NHL’s return, we shift our focus to the ones that have been ousted.  Next up is a look at Pittsburgh.

For the better part of the season, the Penguins looked to be a legitimate contender.  Augmented by the addition of Jason Zucker, things appeared to be looking up for them.  However, a slump just before the pandemic hit forced them out of the seeding round robin and into the Qualifying Round where they were upset by Montreal in four games.  All of a sudden, there are questions abound and GM Jim Rutherford has promised changes.  Here’s what Pittsburgh should be looking to do this offseason.

Shake Up The Forward Core

On paper, there aren’t many teams that have as strong of a forward group as Pittsburgh does.  Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin remain a strong core down the middle while Jake Guentzel is a year removed from a 76-point season and was on pace to beat that before being injured this season.  Zucker is a capable top-six forward while Bryan Rust was tied for 50th in scoring league-wide.  Veterans Patric Hornqvist and Nick Bjugstad had tough years but have been impact players in the past.  That’s enough firepower to be a contender but they have come up short the last couple of postseasons.

Rutherford tried to shake things up last year by moving Phil Kessel to Arizona and then ultimately tried to replace him with Zucker before the trade deadline, a player he had been targeting last summer.  Evidently, that wasn’t enough to move the needle.

With Rutherford saying changes were going to be made (and it’s reasonable to assume he wasn’t just talking about the three assistant coaches who won’t be returning), it seems like he’s intending to make another notable swap.  The question becomes who moves though.  The list of those that Pittsburgh would be willing to move that would bring back a notable return is rather small.  On top of that, Rob Rossi and Josh Yohe of The Athletic report (subscription required) that the team is looking to shed some payroll and start next season in the low-to-mid $70MM range.  At a time where many teams will be looking to do the same, finding new homes for some of their underachieving core players is going to be even more difficult.

Rutherford hasn’t been shy about changing things up in the past and he’ll certainly be trying to do so again.  However, he may find more difficulty trying to do so this time around.

Make A Goalie Choice

With Tristan Jarry establishing himself as a capable NHL goaltender (just months after it was believed he was available in trade talks), Pittsburgh actually had a pretty strong tandem between him and Matt Murray and they were in the bottom ten in goals allowed during the regular season.   However, both are eligible for restricted free agency with arbitration eligibility.  Even if they don’t clear out salary this offseason, it’s hard to envision them keeping both around when they already have more than $68MM in commitments to just 15 players for next season.  But who do they keep?

Murray got the nod in their series against Montreal but was eventually replaced.  That’s similar to the regular season where he was the starter before Jarry started cutting into his playing time.  With a save percentage of just .899, he shouldn’t be in line for too much of a raise on his $3.75MM qualifying offer.  Worth monitoring here is that he’s a year away from UFA eligibility so it’s possible that Murray opts to take a one-year deal (with or without arbitration).  While that would set him up to hit the open market, it would certainly negatively affect any possible trade value so it seems unlikely that Pittsburgh would let it come to that.

As for Jarry, he wound up being a huge bargain for them this season with a cap hit that was $25K below the league minimum.  It’s safe to say that he’ll be in line for a significant raise but a lack of an NHL track record (just 62 career regular season games) will limit his earnings ceiling.  Accordingly, a short-term deal would make sense but he’s only two years away from UFA eligibility himself.  Presumably, that means a one-year deal could be on the table but if not, a deal that buys an extra year or two of team control would likely be the way they’d prefer to go if they’re confident that he can be their starter moving forward.

If Rutherford has an eye on keeping both beyond next season, the expansion draft for the Kraken could help push him in the other direction.  Both Murray and Jarry would be eligible for selection and Pittsburgh could only protect one.  Losing one for nothing isn’t an ideal scenario, even if it mirrors what happened with Vegas just three years ago.

It’s shaping up to be an intriguing offseason on the goalie front with it appearing as if there will likely be some activity on the trade front at that position.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Penguins involved at some point.

Add Defensive Upgrades

Quietly, Pittsburgh has added a pair of capable young defenders in recent years that has their back end in better shape than it projected to be not long ago as John Marino and Marcus Pettersson have both filled important roles quickly.  However, the back end of their blueline has been an area of concern and is something that needs to be addressed.

Justin Schultz had a tough year and it seems like he’s unlikely to return, especially with Rutherford publicly criticizing him following their loss to Montreal.  Jack Johnson has a long list of detractors but the GM isn’t one of them.  Even without the public vote of confidence, his contract which has three more years at $3.25MM makes it likely he’s sticking around.  Meanwhile, Chad Ruhwedel and Juuso Riikola both held their own at times but are best served being in depth or reserve roles.  In the system, Pierre-Olivier Joseph has some upside but isn’t ready for NHL duty just yet.

That means that at the very least, one defensive addition is needed.  In an ideal world, a top-four option that could push one of their youngsters onto Johnson’s pairing to help balance things out would be a good pickup but there aren’t many of those available.  Instead, they may have to settle for trying to find a steadying presence for the third pairing and follow that up with an extra depth option or two as it’s hard to see them signing two new third pairing players and pushing Johnson into the reserve role.  Their ability (or lack thereof) to clear out a high-priced veteran up front will likely ultimately decide which route they wind up taking here.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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