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Offseason Keys 2019

Offseason Keys: St. Louis Blues

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With the postseason and draft now finished, the activity is really about to pick up with free agency now just hours away from officially opening.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in what is shaping up to be a busy NHL offseason?  Next up in our Offseason Keys series is a look at the St. Louis Blues.

What a strange season it was for St. Louis.  They were a team that was believed to be on the way up following the offseason acquisition of Ryan O’Reilly.  Instead, they were in the basement around the halfway point of the year.  A relative unknown was brought up as their backup goalie at this time and the team took off.  They worked their way up to second in the division and then got it done in the postseason as they won the Western Conference crown before defeating Boston in the Stanley Cup Final.  As a result, their offseason to-do list isn’t as big as some other teams.  Here’s what will be on the horizon for them.

Schenn Extension Talks

While Brayden Schenn took a step back offensively after a career year in 2018-19 (O’Reilly’s addition was a big factor), the center was still a big part of their attack.  He eventually settled in on their second line and the potential is there for that to be a nice one-two punch down the middle for a while.

However, the 27-year-old is entering the final year of his contract and is slated to hit the open market next summer.  We’ve seen the going rate for second-tier centers go up considerably in recent years and as someone who at the very least is a capable second liner, Schenn is going to be in that mix.  Accordingly, he should be looking at a minimum of a $2MM increase on his current $5.125MM AAV.

Will he be seeking more than O’Reilly’s $7.5MM?  Will GM Doug Armstrong be using that as sort of a hard cap for as high as he’s willing to go?  (It’s worth noting that Vladimir Tarasenko also sits at $7.5MM.)  As is always the case at this time of year, it’s not a pressing need but for certainty moving forward, expect the Blues to at least get a sense of what the parameters of a new deal for Schenn will be.

New Contract For Binnington

Jordan Binnington’s rise from being a goalie that got loaned to Boston’s farm team in 2017-18 after he blocked an ECHL demotion to anchoring their second-half turnaround and helping lead them to the Stanley Cup was certainly fascinating.  From a contract standpoint, what’s to come could be just as interesting to follow.

What is the going rate for a Cup-winning goalie that has a grand total of 33 career regular season games under his belt (all but one of which came in the same season)?  Simply put, there isn’t one.  There isn’t anything close to one so this is uncharted territory here.  He’s also arbitration-eligible which just adds another wrinkle to the equation.

At the very least, given how he took over for Jake Allen down the stretch and in the playoffs, Binnington’s camp will likely be seeking a price tag that’s equal to or greater than the $4.35MM AAV that Allen carries.  But how much higher is justifiable?  He has basically had one good season so he’s not going to be able to command top dollar or even the type of money that a proven multi-year starter could fetch.

The other question the two sides will have to work through is the term.  There’s risk here for both sides.  If the Blues commit long-term and he falters, it will be a tough contract to get out from under it.  On the other hand, if Binnington fares well, he could wind up leaving a lot of money on the table by locking in now.  A short-term deal could be safer for the Blues but riskier on Binnington’s end.  There’s a lot to work through here.  They’ll get a contract done but the process of how they get there is going to be worth following.

Add Defense Prospects

While the Blues have some short-term work to do to get their bottom-six forward group re-signed, they have a longer-term concern that they may be looking to address.  Their NHL defense corps is basically set once RFA Joel Edmundson re-signs.  However, there isn’t much depth behind that group in the minors which is something they’ll likely look to address on the open market with some two-way contracts and get a player or two that can be recalled in a pinch when injuries hit.

Beyond that, their prospect pipeline is fairly thin at that position beyond 2018 draft pick Scott Perunovich.  Depending on what they’re able to do in free agency, a forward or two could eventually be squeezed out and if that’s the case, expect Armstrong to try to target defense prospects in any trades they try to make over the coming months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Boston Bruins

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With the postseason and draft now finished, the activity is really about to pick up with free agency now just days away.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in what is shaping up to be a busy NHL offseason?  Next up in our Offseason Keys series is a look at the Boston Bruins.

After being ousted in the second round in 2018, Bruins GM Don Sweeney opted to make only a handful of tweaks to his roster with the belief that it was good enough to contend.  His confidence in his squad proved to be well-founded as Boston (bolstered by a pair of late-season additions up front) wound up as Eastern Conference champions before coming up just short in the Stanley Cup Final.  Accordingly, most of their to-do list this summer revolves around taking care of his own team rather than making changes.

Re-Sign Core RFA Defensemen

Although Charlie McAvoy just wrapped up his second full season in the NHL, he has already hit restricted free agency since Boston opted to burn the first year of his entry-level deal in the 2017 postseason.  He has emerged as their top defenseman already but because of his more limited track record (injuries in both seasons have limited him to just 117 regular season games or less than a year and a half of actual action), his contract talks will be a little trickier.  There’s no doubt that the Bruins would love to get him locked up long-term but he may be one of the candidates among this class of prominent RFAs to wind up with a bridge deal to allow time to better assess what his overall offensive upside may be.

As for Brandon Carlo, he has quickly established himself as a capable shutdown defender and is a fixture in their top-four moving forward.  His contract shouldn’t be as challenging as McAvoy’s as he isn’t much of an offensive threat which will limit his overall earning potential.  Players like this don’t tend to get long-term deals but this is one case that could be an exception.

As contracts for these two players will ultimately eat up a big chunk of their remaining salary cap space, Sweeney would certainly love to get these deals done over the next couple of days to know exactly what they have to work with on Monday when free agency opens up.

Krug Extension Talks

Torey Krug has gone from being an undrafted college free agent signing to one of the more consistent offensive threats from the back end in the league.  He’s about to enter the final year of his deal which means he will be eligible for a contract extension on July 1st.

With three straight seasons of over 50 points under his belt, the 28-year-old has certainly positioned himself for a significant raise on the $5.25MM he has on his current deal.  To get an idea of what it will likely cost to get him to sign early, watch for whatever Jake Gardiner gets on the open market and add from there.  Sweeney will have to decide whether or not that is too much for someone that gets a significant portion of his production from the power play.

If it’s deemed to be too expensive of an asking price, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Krug’s name pop up in trade speculation once again as this is the point of the offseason where teams still have some room in the budget to work with where they could come up with a viable trade.  Having said that, the much more likely scenario is that the two sides eventually agree on a new contract; between that and new deals for their two RFAs, the core of their back end will be locked up for a while to come.

Add Secondary Scoring

When discussing the Bruins, adding scoring depth is pretty much becoming an annual thing.  It’s something that Sweeney has tried to address throughout his tenure with varying degrees of success.  David Backes hasn’t worked out while concussions stopped Rick Nash from making much of an impact.  Drew Stafford and Lee Stempniak were small upgrades when they were acquired but weren’t kept around.

Last season, the additions of Charlie Coyle and Marcus Johansson were certainly fruitful.  However, while Coyle is under contract for one more year, Johansson is set to become an unrestricted free agent which means there is a vacancy that they will want to fill if they can’t get him signed to a new deal.

If the Bruins can get deals done for McAvoy and/or Carlo shortly, it would give them more certainty as to how much they can spend to try to fill this role now instead of giving up draft picks or prospects to try to fill that void closer to the trade deadline.  That would certainly be a more desirable outcome than having history repeat itself once again with a midseason swap or two required to bolster Boston’s offensive depth.  The strength of this free agent class is secondary wingers which should play into their favor if they have enough cap space left to go this route.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Carolina Hurricanes

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With the postseason and draft now finished, the activity is really about to pick up with free agency now just days away.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in what is shaping up to be a busy NHL offseason?  Next up in our Offseason Keys series is a look at the Carolina Hurricanes.

Expectations couldn’t have been much lower in Carolina heading into 2018-19.  They had missed the playoffs for the ninth straight season and dealt away Jeff Skinner for an underwhelming return over the summer.  However, new head coach Rod Brind’Amour implemented a more aggressive style and the Hurricanes responded right away while the new goaltending duo of Petr Mrazek and Curtis McElhinney helped take advantage of their strong back end to give them a strong performance between the pipes.  The end result was a surprising run to the Eastern Conference Final.  Now, GM Don Waddell must figure out how to add to his roster to try to get them to take that next step.

Reassemble Their Goaltending

Mrazek and McElhinney provided Carolina with strong goaltending in 2018-19 for the combined cost of what a typical backup makes on the open market ($2.35MM).  There’s no chance of that happening a second time; both goalies will be seeking more than that combined amount in free agency.  By all accounts, at least one of them will be on the move.

The recent Calvin de Haan trade yielded them an option for the backup position in Anton Forsberg but he’s not going to be contending for the starting role anytime soon.  Scott Darling is a strong buyout candidate and isn’t expected to be in the mix either.

Over the next few days in all likelihood, Waddell will need to bring another starting goalie in.  There isn’t too much available on the trade market so it’s expected that a free agent signing will be on the horizon.  Expect what’s left of what they saved in the de Haan deal to help go towards filling this spot.

New Deal For Aho

The top priority for the Hurricanes is getting a contract done with pending restricted free agent Sebastian Aho.  He’s coming off of a career year that saw him eclipse the point-per-game mark for the first time while leading the team in scoring in both the regular season and the playoffs.  On top of that, he did so while also transitioning to being a full-time center, something that only boosts his negotiating leverage.

Unfortunately, there appears to be a sizable gap that needs to be bridged.  Sportsnet’s John Shannon reported in an appearance on 630 CHED (audio link) earlier this week that Carolina’s initial offer was for a max-term eight-year contract with a $6MM AAV.  Meanwhile, TSN’s Frank Seravalli adds that Aho’s first request was a five-year deal with a cap hit of $9.5MM.  As is always the case, opening salvos are always skewed to the extreme but that’s still a large difference.

The term of the deal is going to be interesting.  While it would have been realistically assumed a few months ago that a long-term contract (seven or eight years) would be likely for Aho and many of the others in this bumper crop of restricted free agents, there seems to be a recent shift towards taking a few less years and getting to unrestricted free agency earlier and in the prime of their careers.  If the money winds up being too much for Carolina’s liking, they’ll likely wind up reducing the term of the deal.  In the meantime, Aho is free to discuss contracts with other teams as the RFA interview window has now opened up.

Re-Sign Or Replace Secondary Scoring

While Aho and Teuvo Teravainen rightfully drew most of the attention, their next top two scorers are both slated to hit free agency next week.  One of those isn’t believed to be too much of a flight risk as captain Justin Williams is believed to be in a situation where he’ll either re-sign or retire.  The other, Micheal Ferland, is far from a guarantee to return and he has garnered considerable interest on the open market already.

Re-signing those two would go a long way towards keeping their attack intact from last season, one that finished right in the middle of the pack in goals scored.  While there is hope that players like Andrei Svechnikov can produce more in his second year and that midseason acquisition Nino Niederreiter can continue his second-half pace from 2018-19, expecting that to happen without adding some insurance would be risky.

Fortunately for the Hurricanes, secondary scoring on the wing is the strong spot on the open market as there are quite a few top-six wingers available on top of Carolina’s pair.  That means that if one of Ferland or Williams opts not to re-sign, they should have ample opportunity to find a replacement in free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Colorado Avalanche

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With the postseason now finished, the activity is about to pick up with free agency now just days away.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in what is shaping up to be a likely busy NHL offseason?  Next up in our Offseason Keys series is a look at the Colorado Avalanche.

Despite making the postseason a year earlier and holding their own against Nashville, Colorado was a popular pick to take a step back in 2018-19.  While their point total in the regular season dipped slightly, they still made it to the playoffs and did some damage while they were there as they made short work of Calgary before pushing San Jose to seven games in the second round.  They have a strong young nucleus to build around and GM Joe Sakic has ample salary cap room to work with to try to bring in a few more pieces.  Here’s what the Avalanche need to accomplish this offseason.

New Deal For Rantanen

Mikko Rantanen followed up his breakout 2017-18 season with an even better showing this past season as he set new career highs across the board.  In doing so, he also took away any questions about whether his sophomore year was an aberration or a sign of things to come.  Clearly, it’s the latter as he was a key part of Colorado’s top line that also featured Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog.

The good news for the Avs is that both of those other players are signed for at least two more years at below-market rates.  Rantanen isn’t in that situation as he’s a restricted free agent when his contract expires next month.  Unlike Landeskog and MacKinnon, his deal won’t be coming in below market value.

Rantanen is one of the top restricted free agents in this elite class of RFAs that don’t have salary arbitration eligibility.  By all accounts, none of their agents want to set the market and go first so it wouldn’t be particularly shocking to see this drag out for a little while.  From a budgetary perspective, Sakic would be wise to allocate roughly $10MM per year towards this contract as he plans his other offseason activity.

Decide Barrie’s Future

Tyson Barrie has been no stranger to the rumor mill in recent years.  He has seemingly almost always been in play to some extent though never with Colorado really actively listening to offers.  But they’ve been content to listen and haven’t done anything to try to quell the notion that they’re willing to deal him.  As Barrie enters the final year of his contract next season, the decision on his future becomes much more pressing.

Not surprisingly, he was in trade speculation in the days leading up to the draft and those will likely continue in the coming days.  The free agent market isn’t particularly deep so teams on the lookout for help on the right side defensively will be calling, especially if they have a need for more offense from their back end.  If Sakic decides that the time is right to move him, Barrie’s value is as high as it’s going to be right now and the trade options are more plentiful than they’ll be midseason when more teams are capped out.

On the flip side, the team could decide that it’s worth pursuing an extension for the 27-year-old.  Yes, they have Erik Johnson signed long-term and top prospect Cale Makar under team control for six more years plus promising prospect Conor Timmins in the system as well.  However, it’s rarely a bad thing to have a surplus of quality defenders.  Getting Barrie to commit to a long-term deal would be pricey though as he’ll undoubtedly be looking for a nice boost on his current $5.5MM AAV.

Add Top-Six Winger

Sakic has already stated that he intends to be aggressive this offseason.  Part of that aggression needs to be focused on adding some secondary scoring.  Their top three forwards combined for 106 goals which is great but it also accounted for a little more than 40% of their total offense.  They’ve shown that they can have success with that but adding some help on the second line would go a long way towards bolstering their attack.

With Carl Soderberg having a resurgent season plus Alexander Kerfoot and Tyson Jost on the team already, they’re not in bad shape down the middle behind MacKinnon.  Adding Alex Newhook in the draft gives them a good center for the future as well.  That means that they can focus on adding support on the wing which is where the depth of this free agent class lies.

While Artemi Panarin may be out of their price range as a team that has had a budgeted payroll well below the Upper Limit in the past, players like Anders Lee, Mats Zuccarello, Micheal Ferland, and Gustav Nyquist would all give their second line a boost and a bit more lineup flexibility if they want to split up their big three from time to time.  With a team that’s viewed as on the rise and lots of cap room to work with this summer, Sakic will be able to present these players with a compelling case to join them which would be a good way to start their summer spending.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Dallas Stars

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With the postseason now finished, the activity is about to pick up with the draft now just days away.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in what is shaping up to be a likely busy NHL offseason?  Next up in our Offseason Keys series is a look at the Dallas Stars.

After narrowly missing out on the playoffs, the Stars went a different direction last offseason, bringing in a first time NHL coach in Jim Montgomery as their new bench boss.  The hope was that he’d make them a better all-around team.  That didn’t exactly happen.  Instead, their offense actually dropped to 29th overall.  However, their defensive performance improved as well while they received top-notch goaltending.  That was enough to get them back into the postseason and through the first round after dispatching of Nashville but there is still more work to be done.  Here are the keys to their offseason.

Add Defensive Depth

With Miro Heiskanen, Esa Lindell, and John Klingberg all signed or under team control for at least the next three seasons, the Stars have a good core group in place.  However, things start to go downhill fairly quickly after that.

Jamie Oleksiak was brought back from Pittsburgh and quickly fell down the depth chart down the stretch.  He then suffered a knee injury in the opening round.  He’s signed for two more years but it’s hard to place him in more than a sixth role at this point.  Veteran Roman Polak was re-signed but he’s also someone that is best suited to be on the third pairing.  The organization once had high hopes for restricted free agent Julius Honka but he was a healthy scratch more often than he actually played so he’s probably not in the mix as well while Stephen Johns’ concussion trouble present questions about whether or not he’ll be able to play again.  At the very least, they can’t count on him returning.

As a result, GM Jim Nill would be wise to add a top-four defender at the very least as well as some extra depth.  Finding someone that can play on the second pairing would allow them to take some pressure off the likes of Polak and Oleksiak and keep them in roles they’re better suited for.  In terms of adding depth, bringing back Taylor Fedun would be a good place to start after he impressed upon being acquired from Buffalo.  Some improvements to the back end have been made in recent years but there is still more work to be done.

Zuccarello Decision

Mats Zuccarello seemed like a great fit for Dallas when they acquired him from the Rangers.  Yes, he was injured in his first game with the team but he came back and tied for the team lead in scoring in the postseason.  While he’s an unrestricted free agent next month, he seems like a no-brainer to bring back.

However, it’s not quite so simple.  As part of the trade with New York, the 2020 third-round pick that Dallas is set to give up becomes a first rounder if Zuccarello re-signs.  While he acquitted himself quite well with his new team and has several good years left in him, is it justifiable to part with a first-rounder to keep him around where there are other top-six wingers that will be available in a couple of weeks on the open market?

It will also be worth watching to see what type of raise the 31-year-old will covet.  He made $4.5MM on his previous contract and as someone who averaged 56 points in the previous five years before 2018-19 (and played at a 68-point pace this past season), he’s going to be in line for a notable raise.  When you put everything together, it’s shaping up to be a pretty expensive price to pay to keep Zuccarello in Dallas and Nill will need to decide whether it’s justifiable to pay it or look elsewhere.

Bring In Scoring Help

Regardless of what they do with Zuccarello, more help up front is required.  As a team, Dallas scored just 210 goals in 2018-19, good for 29th in the NHL.  Their top line for most of the season (Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and Alexander Radulov) combined for 89 of them, or more than 42% of their goals as a team.  While it’s great to have a strong number one line, asking one trio to shoulder that much of the scoring load is tough.

The good news for the Stars is that Jason Spezza’s $7.5MM contract comes off the books.  That type of money being freed up will allow them to go after some of the more prominent forwards on the open market.  Another impact forward on the roster full-time would go a long way towards giving them a second line that’s capable of doing some damage.  That would either free up more room for the Seguin unit or give them the ability to split things up into two strong groups.

On top of that, some more secondary scoring is also needed.  Radek Faksa was the only other full-time Dallas forward to reach the double-digit mark in goals.  Teams with eyes on contending need a few more of those on the roster.  Fortunately for Nill, there are quite a few of those players available in free agency and that’s something they should be able to add without much difficulty.  It’s going to be hard to ask the goaltending to be as successful as Ben Bishop and Anton Khudobin were this past season and getting some more offense would go a long way towards giving them a lot more margin for error for 2019-20.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Columbus Blue Jackets

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With the postseason now finished, the activity is about to pick up.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in what is shaping up to be a likely busy NHL offseason?  Next up in our Offseason Keys series is a look at the Columbus Blue Jackets.

It was certainly an eventful year in Columbus.  The team hovered around the middle of the pack for most of the season before GM Jarmo Kekalainen went all in at the deadline.  Not only did he not move his top pending unrestricted free agents, he also went and brought in two more rental players in the hopes of pushing them over the top.  While they still hovered around the middle of the pack – they didn’t clinch a playoff spot until the final days of the regular season – they had their best showing in the postseason.  They swept the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Lightning (their first ever series victory) before falling to the eventual Eastern Conference champion Bruins.  While getting through Tampa Bay was certainly a tough task, Kekalainen is now faced with a tougher one as he tries to keep this team together.  Accomplishing that is basically their entire objective for this offseason.

Re-Sign Werenski

While it’s the forwards that are getting most of the attention among the bumper crop of restricted free agents coming off their entry-level deals, defenseman Zach Werenski also deserves to be included among that group.  He has emerged as a legitimate top pairing blueliner already and has provided a level of offensive production that not a lot of two-way defenders reach in the early stages of his career.

Not only does that put him in line for a big raise, it also makes it a bit tricky to predict how much he’ll ultimately get.  There are offensive-minded blueliners with similar numbers but lack the overall two-way game that Werenski provides.  There are defensive-minded players who by this point have ascended to a top pairing role but don’t put up the numbers that Werenski has.

Those players have tended to sign for between 6-8% of the salary cap in recent years.  With Werenski being an all-around player, he should check in above that which could push his new cap hit on a long-term deal (a short-term bridge pact is unlikely) over the $8MM mark.  With so much money coming off the books on expiring contracts, Kekalainen won’t have to worry about any potential salary cap repercussions as he sets a new bar for a defenseman signing off his entry-level deal.

Keep Or Replace Top Forwards

Artemi Panarin hasn’t exactly hidden his intentions.  Since the start of the season, he was intent on testing the free agent market.  He certainly didn’t hurt his value in 2018-19 as he had a career season as the focal point of their attack where he led the team in scoring.  That continued in the postseason as well.  Panarin is by far the top free agent forward on the open market and could set a new benchmark for an AAV for a winger.

Then there’s Matt Duchene.  Columbus paid a pretty high price to bring him in as a rental and they’ll have to do to keep him around in more ways than one.  Not only is he the consensus top center on the open market (in a class that doesn’t have a lot of top-six talent at that position), they’ll also have to give up their 2020 first-round pick to Ottawa if he sticks around.  While the Blue Jackets have what they hope is their long-term top pivot in Pierre-Luc Dubois, keeping Duchene in the fold would give them a very strong one-two punch for a long time.  If nothing else, the first-round that’s encumbered for him re-signing takes any thought of a potential sign-and-trade off the table which means that Columbus is truly the only team with a chance to give him an eight-year deal.  Before going any further, former Ottawa teammate Ryan Dzingel is one of the better secondary options of this free agent class as well.

Keeping Panarin looks like it’s going to be a challenge.  Columbus can offer him top dollar but all indications going back to the start of the season are that he has some interest in moving on.  Keeping Duchene would be nice but losing another top draft pick would be tough to swallow.  Kekalainen will be in tough to keep both in the fold and if he can’t get new deals done for them, he’s going to have to be aggressive to find replacements for them either on the open market or via trades.

Find A Starting Goalie

Goaltending hasn’t been a big question mark for the last several years with Sergei Bobrovsky in the fold.  That certainly seems like it’s about to change as he’s also eligible for unrestricted free agency and eschewed overtures to talk about a new contract during the season.  John Tortorella’s aggressive usage of Joonas Korpisalo at times seemed to hint that they may have been testing his potential readiness to take on a larger role for 2019-20 and beyond.

Korpisalo’s results imply that he’s not yet ready to take over from Bobrovsky just yet.  The only other goalie they have under contract is Elvis Merzlikins and while he has some upside, he’s not going to be transitioning from being a starter in Switzerland to a starter in the NHL right away.  It’s certainly possible that they could use the two as a platoon for next season but that strategy would certainly carry some risk, especially if they don’t intend on taking a step back in the short term.

With that in mind, Kekalainen could be scouring the free agent market to find at least a short-term option between the pipes if Bobrovsky does indeed move on.  The next best option may be Semyon Varlamov, who could be open to a shorter-term ‘pillow contract’ in the hopes of rebuilding his value.  That could play in well with what Columbus needs if they believe that one of their other two netminders could soon be ready for that role.  At any rate, it appears quite likely that there will be less stability at that position for next season than there has been for a while in Columbus.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: New York Islanders

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With the postseason wrapping up tonight, most squads are now well into their offseason planning.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in what is shaping up to be a likely busy NHL offseason?  Next up in our Offseason Keys series is a look at the New York Islanders.

Expectations were low for the Islanders after they lost their leading scorer and captain John Tavares to Toronto last summer.  However, they were still able to land a quality head coach in Barry Trotz while new GM Lou Lamoriello’s depth additions in free agency wound up paying dividends right away.  As a result, not only did the Islanders make the playoffs, they swept Pittsburgh in the opening round before suffering the same fate at the hands of Carolina.  New York enters the offseason with considerable cap space so there should be more changes on the horizon.  Here is what will be on Lamoriello’s to-do list this summer.

Goaltending Decisions

Heading into the season, the goaltending tandem of Robin Lehner and Thomas Greiss was a huge question mark.  Lehner was coming off a rough year in Buffalo while Greiss had the worst numbers of his career in 2017-18.  This was looking like it was going to be their Achilles’ heel but instead, the opposite happened.  Lehner had a career season, fulfilling (for one season at least) the high expectations that came upon being a player that Buffalo gave up a first-round pick for.  (But clearly, unfortunately for the Sabres, it wasn’t with them.)  Meanwhile, Greiss bounced back nicely, giving the Islanders a very strong platoon between the pipes.

Lamoriello now needs to decide if he thinks that these performances were a sign of things to come or a one-off.  Lehner’s slated to hit unrestricted free agency and will be looking at a sizable raise from the $1.5MM he made this past season.  He’ll also be in line for a multi-year commitment this time around.  While there’s certainly some upside to giving him that contract based on how he performed, it’s not without its risks either.  As for Greiss, he will be eligible for a contract extension on July 1st.  Is he in the plans moving forward?

Complicating matters is top prospect Ilya Sorokin.  He won’t be coming to North America this season but his contract in the KHL will be up in 2020.  The Islanders are certainly going to want him to make the jump but as one of the top goalies in that league, he’ll undoubtedly receive some big money offers to stay home.  He’ll be forced to sign a one-year entry-level deal to start with New York but realistically, he’s going to want a pathway to a big role (and money) to put pen to paper to start with.  Committing to Lehner as their long-term starter could have some repercussions when it comes to Sorokin.  There were plenty of question marks with their goaltending head into the season and even after the year they had, there are still a lot of questions that Lamoriello will need to ponder.

New Deal For Lee

New York certainly doesn’t want history to repeat itself when it comes to losing their captain to unrestricted free agency but there is the potential for that to happen as winger Anders Lee is slated to hit the open market next month.  There’s mutual interest in a new deal but there appears to be one big issue that needs to be bridged before the two sides make a contract official.

Lee is believed to be seeking a near max-term contract which, if he re-signs before the market opens up, can go as long as eight years.  He turns 29 less than a month from now so a deal like that will take him to 37.  That’s a big risk, especially for someone whose output has varied over the past few years though he has managed at least 28 goals in each of the last three seasons.

Right now, Lee is a viable front-line player but over time, that will change and they certainly want to avoid another Andrew Ladd situation.  That’s why Lamoriello is believed to be pushing for a shorter-term pact, even though doing so will likely come with a higher price tag in terms of AAV.  While Lee doesn’t have quite the overall impact that Tavares did, losing a top scorer and captain in two straight seasons to the open market would be tough to take.  Can they find the right compromise?

Utilize Their Defensive Depth

While their back end isn’t full of brand name defenders, New York’s group wound up being quite effective and certainly contributed to the success of their goaltending.  Thanks to their efforts, the Islanders were the stingiest team in the league in terms of goals allowed.

The good news is that they’re pretty deep already.  The better news is that there is more help on the horizon.  Top prospect Noah Dobson figures to be in the mix for a spot next season after a dominant showing at the junior level.  Sebastian Aho (not the Carolina one) had a big year and is nearly ready for a longer look in the NHL as well.  Behind them, Bode Wilde had a big year at the junior level and they’re hopeful that he will make an impact down the road.  Add that to a capable group of seven at the NHL level and all of a sudden, the Islanders could be in a position to deal a blueliner or two at a time where the UFA market is pretty soft.

Nick Leddy underachieved considerably last season which has led to some speculation that he could be in play.  With a $5.5MM cap hit for three more years, he carries a hefty price tag but as someone that has been a capable top-four option in the past, there may be teams thinking that a change of scenery could get him going again.  Thomas Hickey was brought back last summer on a four-year deal but wound up playing more of a depth role when he was in the lineup.  He’s someone that could certainly be moved as well.  Regardless of who moves, the Islanders are in good shape as one of few teams that could realistically move a defenseman with plenty of teams being on the market for one.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Washington Capitals

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With the postseason down to just two teams, most squads are now well into their offseason planning.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in what is shaping up to be a likely busy NHL offseason?  Next up in our Offseason Keys series is a look at the Washington Capitals.

After Washington won the Stanley Cup last season, they opted to keep the core of the team intact heading into 2018-19.  The decision certainly made plenty of sense and the Caps wound up winning the Metropolitan Division.  However, they were then upset at the hands of the upstart Hurricanes in the first round so there could be some changes to the roster this time around.  Here’s what’s on GM Brian MacLellan’s to-do list this offseason.

Extension Talks

If it seems like so long ago that center Nicklas Backstrom was coming to the end of his contract, it’s because it has been.  His current ten-year contract (one that is no longer permissible in the CBA) was signed back in 2010 and since then, he has been a bargain considering how much time he has spent on Washington’s top line.

However, he’s now entering the final year of his contract and will be eligible to sign a contract extension as of July 1st.  Backstrom has already indicated a willingness to sign a new deal but it’s also fair to say that he’s going to be looking for a decent-sized raise on his current $6.7MM AAV.  Considering Washington is perpetually up against the Upper Limit, there is a limit to what MacLellan will be willing to pay but it wouldn’t be surprising to see a deal worked out fairly quickly.

The same can’t be said for their other core player entering the final year of his deal.  Goaltender Braden Holtby is coming off his second straight season with a GAA and a SV% below the league average.  While he’s still viewed as a starter for now, has he started to decline or were the last two seasons just an aberration and he’ll get back to being one of the better netminders in the league?  That type of uncertainty will complicate things.

So too will the looming Seattle expansion.  Top prospect Ilya Samsonov will need to be protected for that draft.  If he re-signs, so will Holtby.  There’s also a chance that Holtby will have enough leverage to yield a no-move clause which would guarantee him protection.  Long story short, this could be a Pittsburgh situation all over again.  With that in mind, it may be more prudent to see how the start of next season goes before deciding what to do but there should at least be cursory discussions that occur this summer.

Vrana Contract

Washington doesn’t have a long list of notable free agents to re-sign but winger Jakub Vrana’s case will be an interesting one to follow.  He spent a fair amount of time in the top six and upped his production accordingly, beating his point total from 2017-18 by 20 while jumping to a respectable 23 goals.  Unfortunately for both him and the Capitals, Vrana struggled in the postseason which will likely affect his value.

MacLellan stated previously that he’s open to signing the 23-year-old to a long-term deal but last month, it was noted that the focus is a shorter-term bridge contract or one that is only slightly longer.  Considering their cap situation, going with a bridge pact would give them a bit more flexibility this summer but it will result in a higher AAV a couple of years down the road.

In recent years, MacLellan has been able to lock up his core players to long-term pacts when he wants to but this may wind up being one of the exceptions.  Getting Vrana to forego potential UFA years will take the team being willing to pay him top-six money when he has yet to establish himself as a regular in that role.  Given how few dollars they have to work with this summer, that may just be too much risk for their liking.

Reshape The Bottom Six

The majority of players that spent time in Washington’s bottom six up front are slated to become free agents (either restricted or unrestricted) this summer.  Not many are likely to be back for financial reasons as wingers like Brett Connolly (UFA), Carl Hagelin (UFA), and Andre Burakovsky (RFA with a qualifying offer of $3.25MM) are all likely to be out of their price range unless one is willing to take a below-market deal to remain with the team.

Internally, there aren’t many options that are ready to step up.  Players like Shane Gersich and Liam O’Brien could be fourth line fits.  Nathan Walker, a Group VI free agent, is open to re-signing but he’s only a depth option as well.  They’ll likely have to look outside the organization to find a player or two that can step onto their third line.

Burakovsky could be dangled to yield one of those pieces, as long as there’s a team willing to tender him a qualifying offer.  Beyond that though, watch for Washington to be active on the UFA market to find role players willing to take a short-term bargain deal as they change the makeup of their bottom six group.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Vegas Golden Knights

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With the postseason down to just two teams, most squads are now well into their offseason planning.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in what is shaping up to be a likely busy NHL offseason?  Next up in our Offseason Keys series is a look at the Vegas Golden Knights.

After an inaugural season that even the most of optimistic of fans would have had a hard time expecting, expectations were high for Vegas going into their sophomore year.  They made a big splash in free agency with the addition of Paul Stastny, then followed that up with the acquisition and extension of Max Pacioretty.  They landed the biggest fish at the trade deadline in Mark Stone and inked him to a long-term deal as well.  Despite those additions, they ultimately came up short in the postseason in very controversial fashion against San Jose.  Now, with a lot of the heavy lifting done, new GM Kelly McCrimmon must decide on what roster tweaks need to be made.  Here are the keys to their offseason.

Add An Impact Defender

Vegas has done a great job with their defense-by-committee approach.  However, at some point, it would certainly be beneficial for them to have a top-four that stands out considerably from their third pairing.  As things stand with their roster, there are some questions as to whether or not they truly have a legitimate top pairing player.

Shea Theodore has the upside to perhaps get to that level one day but he’s still developing and isn’t there yet.  Nate Schmidt has gone from being a role player in Washington to the defacto number one but he isn’t ideally suited to be in that role.  They have some quality prospects but none of them are pegged to be top-pair players either.

That’s part of the reason that Vegas has been linked to pending UFA defenseman Erik Karlsson dating back to the 2018 trade deadline.  Finding that type of player that can basically bump everyone else down a peg and really add another dimension to their back end.  It’s a tough ask considering Karlsson is the only free agent that can make that type of impact and their cap situation (more on that later) but finding a way to add a key defender would really bolster their chances for next season.

Re-Sign Karlsson

After a career year that pretty much no one saw coming, center William Karlsson and the team weren’t able to agree on a long-term contract and instead opted to work out a one-year, $5.25MM pact, essentially punting the decision to one year down the road where both sides would have a better idea about the sustainability of his offensive outburst.

That time has come and while Karlsson’s numbers dipped, he still had a strong season, posting 24 goals and 32 assists in 82 games while logging nearly 19 minutes a night in ice time.  At a bare minimum, that’s second line production and should have him well-positioned for a raise, especially with salary arbitration eligibility.

One thing that can’t happen this time from the perspective of the Golden Knights is history repeating itself.  While they were able to do a one-year deal last summer, doing so once again this offseason would take Karlsson to UFA eligibility a year from now which is far from an ideal situation.  Getting at least a multi-year deal done, if not a long-term one, has to be considered their top priority.

Clear Cap Space

As a result of long-term extensions handed out to Schmidt, Pacioretty, Stone, and Alex Tuch at various points of the season, the team now has a little over $83MM of commitments for next season, per CapFriendly.  While there is an expectation that the Upper Limit will rise, it may not get to $83MM.  Even with David Clarkson ($5.25MM) heading for LTIR once again, a new deal for Karlsson will wipe out those savings and more.  Clearly, cost-cutting moves need to be made.

Defenseman Colin Miller appears to be one of the potential casualties.  While he briefly spent time as a healthy scratch, he’s still a capable offensive blueliner, picking up 70 points over his two seasons in Vegas.  He’s also a right-shot defender, something that is always in high demand and his contract, $3.875MM for three more years, is actually rather reasonable.  McCrimmon should be able to get a strong return for Miller if he does decide to move the 26-year-old.

However, with several other roster spots to fill, it’s quite unlikely that moving out Miller will be enough.  Players like center Cody Eakin ($3.85MM), winger Ryan Reaves ($2.775MM), and defenseman Nick Holden ($2.2MM) could all be in jeopardy of losing their spots as well.  All three happen to be entering the final year of their contracts which could make them intriguing to teams that don’t want to turn to the open market to add players on longer-term deals.

At any rate, after former GM George McPhee made plenty of moves to add to this team over the past two seasons, McCrimmon will be forced to change that this summer and start dealing away some veterans to create enough cap space to accommodate the increased price tag of their core.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Focus: Vegas Golden Knights

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Free agency is now a little less than a month away from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Vegas has a pair of notable restricted free agents to re-sign this summer and extremely limited cap space to work with.  Here’s a closer look at their free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agents: F William Karlsson – His contract situation a year ago was one of the more interesting ones of the summer considering he was coming off of his breakthrough season which was his only year of quality production.  They wound up settling on a one-year pact so he’s up for a new deal once again.  While Karlsson’s numbers dipped as expected in 2018-19, he was still productive, posting 24 goals and 32 assists, still safely in the range of a top-six forward.  He’s owed a qualifying offer of $5.25MM and the question will be how much more than that will it take to get him to agree to a long-term deal this time around?  The 26-year-old is one year away from UFA eligibility and could simply file for arbitration and take a one-year deal if talks don’t go well.

F Nikita Gusev – It’s rare that someone that has yet to play in an NHL game is considered a key RFA but it’s fair to call Gusev an exception here.  He led the KHL in scoring in 2018-19 and not by a particularly close margin.  Vegas believes that he can be a top-six forward at the NHL level and the 26-year-old will likely be looking to be paid like one after quickly burning his entry-level contract in the playoffs.  He technically has arbitration eligibility but with no track record under his belt, that would be a tough case to make in a hearing.  His case is going to be a particularly intriguing one to watch for.

Other RFAs: D Jake Bischoff, G Zach Fucale, F Alex Gallant, F Tomas Hyka, F Tobias Lindberg, F Tomas Nosek, D Jimmy Schuldt, G Malcolm Subban

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: D Deryk Engelland – When Vegas picked him up in expansion, he was viewed as someone that was probably going to be a depth part on their back end.  That hasn’t exactly happened as he has averaged over 20 minutes per game over his two seasons with the Golden Knights and was third on their back end in ATOI in 2018-19.  Forget being a depth piece, he has been a particularly important one.  He has already stated that he hopes to play for a couple more seasons at least but would like to go year-to-year and Vegas has recently tendered him an offer.  While he could make a case for a higher base salary than the $1.5MM he had this past season (plus $1MM in performance bonuses), he may have to go elsewhere to get that with their cap situation.

F Brandon Pirri – He made quite the impact after being recalled, posting 13 points in his first 11 games.  While he tapered off after that (five points in 20 contests), that strong stretch will certainly result in him getting some interest on the open market and the security of a one-way contract.  He also has shown himself to be one of the better forwards at the AHL level in recent years.  Teams that have limited cap space and need some depth on the wing will likely look Pirri’s way.

Other UFAs: F Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, F Ryan Carpenter, F Daniel Carr, G Maxime Lagace, D Zac Leslie, F Brooks Macek, F Stefan Matteau, D Griffin Reinhart, F T.J. Tynan

Projected Cap Space: As a result of the many contract extensions the Golden Knights handed out over the season, they already have over $83MM committed for next season, per CapFriendly.  While David Clarkson ($5.25MM) is heading for LTIR once again, that doesn’t leave them with a lot of money to work with.  They will undoubtedly have to clear out some salary in the weeks to come.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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