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Offseason Keys 2018

Offseason Keys: Washington Capitals

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The offseason is now in full swing with the draft complete and free agency now underway.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in the weeks to come?  Our Offseason Keys series wraps up with a look at the Washington Capitals.

Before the celebrations of their Stanley Cup title even ended, the Capitals got busy when it came to accomplishing some offseason objectives.  They locked up John Carlson long-term, got out of Brooks Orpik’s contract, and hired a new coach…all before July came around.  Despite accomplishing a lot of their keys early on, Washington still has some work to do this summer before they look to defend their title.

New Deal For Wilson

For several years, winger Tom Wilson has had the reputation of primarily being a physical forward but he took a big step forwards towards changing that last season as he posted career highs across the board with 14 goals, 21 assists, and 187 PIMS in 78 games.  He also saw his role increase dramatically as he went from a bottom-six forward to someone that was frequently riding shotgun on the top line.  He followed up that performance with an even better showing in the playoffs where he picked up 15 points (5-10-15) in 21 contests.

Interestingly, while Wilson was eligible for salary arbitration, he opted not to file in advance of Thursday’s deadline.  That leaves him still eligible for an offer sheet but the biggest takeaway from this is that a guaranteed deal well in advance of the season isn’t necessarily going to be the case.

GM Brian MacLellan has frequently stated that his preference is to sign Wilson long-term but it poses the question of what he’s worth on that type of contract.  Yes, he’s coming off of a strong season but his previous career high in points heading into last year was only 23.  That type of point production from a forward isn’t something that typically yields a long-term commitment.  Instead, a ‘prove it’ bridge deal is often the route that gets taken and it will be interesting to see if they shift towards that if they can’t come to terms on a long-term pact.  As Wilson is just 24, they can safely do so and still have him under team control at the end of the year.

Add A Veteran Goaltender

With Philipp Grubauer off to Colorado as part of a draft night trade, the Caps have lost a big security blanket behind Braden Holtby.  It was only a few months ago that Grubauer actually got the nod to start the postseason and while Holtby eventually reclaimed the starting role and played quite well after, he did struggle in 2017-18 and having Grubauer behind him gave them the opportunity to let him sit back and regain his form with a lot less pressure.

As things stand, Pheonix Copley is set to open the season as Washington’s backup.  The 26-year-old has a total of two career NHL appearances and isn’t exacting coming off of a confidence-inspiring minor league campaign, one that saw him post a 2.91 GAA and a .896 SV% in 41 games.  He brings some value in that he has a league-minimum cap hit but Washington could certainly stand to do better.

Whether it’s looking at someone like Kari Lehtonen or Steve Mason in free agency or simply adding a third-stringer with a bit more NHL experience, bringing someone else in would be helpful.  Ilya Samsonov is now signed and is the goalie of the future but asking him to take on the starting reins in his rookie AHL season if something happens to Holtby would be risky.  MacLellan has done well to give them some wiggle room financially and spending some of those savings on some insurance between the pipes would be wise.

Add Defensive Depth

While Washington is expected to give youngsters Madison Bowey and Christian Djoos longer looks next season, it would still be a little risky going into the season with those two as the bottom pair and not much support behind them.  Orpik’s deal was cleared out last month while Jakub Jerabek, a late-season addition, remains an unrestricted free agent.  In the system, Aaron Ness has a little bit of NHL experience but isn’t someone that’s going to be counted on for more than a few games here and there.

Basically, the Capitals need to replace Orpik with a similar veteran on a short-term deal (or simply re-sign Orpik as he was bought out by Colorado).  Fortunately for them, the market on veteran blueliners has been slow to develop so this is something they can slow play a bit unless there is a specific player they’re targeting.  There will be defenders that will be looking for cheap deals or PTOs in late August/early September and Washington should have a favorable pitch given the year they just had and a spot potentially up for grabs.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Vegas Golden Knights

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The offseason is now in full swing with the draft complete and free agency now underway.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in the weeks to come?  Our Offseason Keys series continues with a look at the Vegas Golden Knights.

After the Expansion Draft, many expected that Vegas would be near the basement of the NHL.  They had a collection of decent players but not many impact ones…or so it seemed.  Instead of floundering, the Golden Knights flourished, winning the tough Pacific Division and making it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final.  What will they have in store for an encore?  If they have plans on going deep once again, here’s what they will need to do this summer.

Add An Impact Defenseman

While Vegas picked up quite a few defenders through expansion, they didn’t have a prototypical top pairing player on their roster.  They have hopes that Shea Theodore (picked up in an Expansion Draft deal) could become one but he’s not quite at that level just yet.  They received quality performances from Nate Schmidt, Brayden McNabb, and Deryk Engelland as well but they’re all better utilized as role players and newcomer Nick Holden is best served on the third pairing as well.

That’s part of the reason why Vegas was actively in trade talks for Senators blueliner Erik Karlsson in the moments leading up to the trade deadline.  Adding him would have allowed the Golden Knights to shift their players into roles that they were better suited for (not to mention adding a significant offensive weapon to their back end).  This offseason, the two teams have explored a move once again.

With no help of note coming via free agency, this is a hole that GM George McPhee will need to fill via the trade market.  One thing that will certainly help them is their salary cap situation – they should be able to take on unwanted contracts if it helps to get a deal done.

New Deal For Karlsson

What a year it was for center William Karlsson.  After working out a deal with Columbus where Karlsson would be their selection (instead of winger Josh Anderson or goalie Joonas Korpisalo), it was expected that Karlsson would be a bottom-six forward.  It was certainly reasonable to think so as well as he had put just 15 goals over the previous two seasons combined while playing third line minutes.

While some would have predicted a bit of an uptick in his production with potentially more playing time, no one saw 43 goals and 78 points coming.  Karlsson blossomed into their go-to center, leading the team in scoring during the regular season while finishing third in postseason production.  He even took home the Lady Byng Trophy in the end-of-season awards earlier this month.

All of this presents what is set to be a fascinating restricted free agency case, one that could be headed for arbitration as well after he filed back on Thursday.  40-goal players don’t typically go to hearings so it’s going to be very interesting to see what Vegas looks to offer and what he’s seeking from the team.  He’s two years away from UFA eligibility so while a one-year, higher salaried ‘prove it’ contract makes some practical sense, there would certainly be some risk involved as well.  Of course, handing a long-term, big money deal to someone who had a great year but no track record of previous success also carries some risk.

One way or the other, a deal will get done to keep their leading scorer in the fold.  How they get to that point will make for a very intriguing situation to follow.

Fleury Extension Talks

Goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury was another of the real bright spots for the Golden Knights in their inaugural year.  While he had some challenges staying healthy, he posted his best career regular season numbers and then duplicated that performance in the postseason.  After being viewed as someone potentially on the downswing, he wound up being one of the better goalies in the league last season.

The 33-year-old is now entering the final year of his contract and has already made it known that he would like to finish his career with Vegas.  Considering the Golden Knights don’t have much in the way of high-end goalie prospects in the pipeline, it’s a feeling that should be mutual.

Having said that, this shouldn’t necessarily be interpreted as a notion that a deal has to get done.  As things currently stand, next year’s goaltending market projects to be extremely deep with several other starters entering the final season of their respective contracts.  If McPhee wants to slow play this, he could conceivably wait to see if other goalies sign and if not, use the other options as leverage to get a more team-friendly deal.  In theory, that may seem like a wise way to go but doing so also runs the risk of alienating one of their top players.  Realistically, it wouldn’t be surprising to see both sides work on getting an extension done over the summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Tampa Bay Lightning

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The offseason is now in full swing with the draft complete and free agency now underway.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in the weeks to come?  Our Offseason Keys series continues with a look at the Tampa Bay Lightning.

After missing the playoffs in 2016-17, Tampa Bay was looking to get back into Stanley Cup contention.  While they fell short of that, it was still a successful season as they won the Atlantic Division while making it to the Eastern Conference Final before being eliminated by the eventual champions in Washington.  They’ve already taken care of two key items on their summer to-do list with the re-signing of J.T. Miller and Ryan McDonagh’s extension; here are three other keys to their offseason.

Kucherov Extension Talks

Two summers ago, the Lightning held the cards when it came to then-RFA winger Nikita Kucherov.  He didn’t have arbitration rights, no teams want to sign offer sheets, and the team had limited cap room.  That forced a three-year, $14.3MM bridge deal with the third season being 2018-19 which makes him eligible for a contract extension as of July 1st.

It’s safe to say that the 25-year-old now holds the cards.  Kucherov is coming off a 100-point season and has firmly established himself as a premier winger in the league (if not the premier winger).  He will also be arbitration-eligible next summer and if he wants, he can simply file, go to the hearing, and get a one-year deal that will take him to unrestricted free agency.

That’s certainly not the route that GM Steve Yzerman will want to go.  The question will be how much will it cost to get him on a long-term extension?  While center Steven Stamkos set the bar two years ago when he signed for $8.5MM but it’s quite likely that Kucherov will cost more than that on his next contract.  It’s not impossible to think he could surpass the $10MM mark and more than double his current cap hit.  They may not get a deal done this summer but expect a lot of talks to occur in the weeks and months to come.

Free Up Long-Term Cap Room

Knowing that a new and much more expensive deal for Kucherov is on the horizon, Yzerman is going to have to look to free up some long-term space.  As things stand, the team already has over $56MM on the books for 2019-20 per CapFriendly and that only includes 11 players.  If Kucherov gets more than $10MM on an extension, that could present the Lightning with a situation where they’ll be looking to fill out nearly half their roster with only $13MM or so to spend.  That’s not a palatable situation to work with.  At some point, they’re going to have to move a core player out.

One player who has been speculated as someone that could move is center Tyler Johnson.  However, his full no-trade clause kicked in on July 1st which could affect any deal.  He has a more than manageable $5MM cap hit for six more years and with the center market as dried up as it is, they could get quite the return.  While moving him would take a key piece out of their lineup, Miller can also play down the middle as can Brayden Point (also an RFA next year).

While winger Alex Killorn has been quite consistently productive in a secondary role over the past five years, he could be deemed too pricey at $4.45MM through 2022-23.  However, he already has a full no-trade clause in place that could complicate things.  He wouldn’t bring back as much in a return as Johnson but moving him could allow them to keep their depth down the middle.  Veteran winger Ryan Callahan has a shorter-term deal to work with ($5.8MM through 2019-20) but his injury troubles will make him difficult to move.

At any rate, Tampa Bay is going to have to move out a notable player or two in the somewhat near future.  If they plan to make a splash in free agency this summer, they may have to move someone out now in order to do so.  If not, they can defer acting on this until next offseason but they’ll really be under the gun at that time.

Long-Term Stability On Defense

While the team already has seven defenders signed for next season (plus RFA Slater Koekkoek still to sign), only three are signed beyond the next 12 months in Victor Hedman, McDonagh, and Mikhail Sergachev.  Three others are set to become unrestricted free agents next summer which could result in a fairly significant amount of turnover in a short period of time.

With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Yzerman seeking younger rearguards in any offseason trade discussions.  While 2017 first-rounder Cal Foote figures to be in the mix a year from now, there isn’t anyone else that’s really on the verge of making an NHL push so they will need to add.  Their back end is pretty well set for 2018-19 and should be in good shape with McDonagh now being there for the full season but this is a group that doesn’t have a lot of stability beyond then which is something that the team should be looking to address.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Winnipeg Jets

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The offseason is now in full swing with the draft now complete and free agency on the horizon.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in the weeks to come?  Our Offseason Keys series continues with a look at the Winnipeg Jets.

The Jets had quite the turnaround in 2017-18.  After missing the postseason the year before, everything started to come together nicely which pushed them back towards the playoff picture.  GM Kevin Cheveldayoff then added center Paul Stastny at the deadline to make a run.  They did just that as they made it all the way to the Western Conference Final before being ousted by Vegas.  Don’t expect them to be too active on the free agent market, however, as the keys to their offseason all pertain to dealing with their current roster.

Extension Talks

There aren’t many teams that have more prominent players than Winnipeg does when it comes to signing early extensions.  The Jets have no fewer than three core forwards that will be entering the final year of their contracts on July 1st and it’s reasonable to think that the team is going to want to have some talks with all three to at the very least get a sense of how much they need to set aside in the budget moving forward.  (And this doesn’t even factor in defenseman Tyler Myers, who also is set to enter the final year of his deal.)

Winger Blake Wheeler is the lone unrestricted free agent of the three and is going to have quite the leverage to work with.  He led the team in points this past season with 91, good for ninth overall in the league while his 68 assists tied for the league lead.  He has logged heavy minutes on their top line for years now and he’s also their captain.  Put that all together and Wheeler is a player that will be one of the most sought-after wingers if he makes it to the open market next summer.  He’ll be 33 when that contract begins so a max-term deal is unlikely but five or six years at a rate considerably higher than his current $5.6MM cap hit is likely.

Fellow winger Kyle Connor didn’t see a lot of NHL time in his rookie year but became a key contributor pretty quickly in his sophomore campaign as he posted 31 goals and 26 assists in 76 games.  If the team believes this is a sign of things to come, they may want to act now…at least in theory.  Depending on what happens with some of their other pending free agents, Winnipeg may be forced to hand him a bridge deal to free up some extra cap room for 2019-20.  If that is indeed the case, that could wind up deferring any substantial talks as it’s quite rare for a player to sign a bridge contract a year earlier than they need to.

Then there’s winger Patrik Laine.  The second overall pick in 2016 has lived up to his billing and has already become one of the elite snipers in the league.  After Buffalo’s Jack Eichel landed a $10MM AAV on an early extension last offseason, it’s safe to assume that his deal will be used for a benchmark.  While Eichel plays the more premium position, the salary cap is higher now than it was a year ago so those two factors will largely offset.  Is that a contract that the Jets are comfortable handing out after just 172 career games (regular season and playoffs combined)?  Whether they do it now or a year from now, his salary is going to jump tenfold.

Determine Trouba’s Future

Two years ago, it looked like defenseman Jacob Trouba was on the outs in Winnipeg.  Unhappy with being asked to play on the left side and seemingly unable to come to terms on a contract following the expiration of his entry-level deal, he asked for a trade.  Eventually, the two sides agreed on a two-year bridge deal which expires on Saturday so a new deal needs to be worked out.

Trouba has arbitration eligibility this time around so unless he opts not to file and the team elects not to take him to a hearing, it can be said at the very least that there won’t be a holdout that lasts into the season this time around.

That said, this could still be a tricky negotiation.  His platform season saw him miss 27 games due to injury while his ice time was cut by more than three minutes a night.  Given his play the year before, Trouba is going to be looking to be paid as a number two or three defender but the logjam on the right side still exists.  Myers still has a year left on his deal while Dustin Byfuglien is locked up through 2020-21.  If they don’t want to shift one to the left on a full-time basis, then they’re going to be paying big money to a third pairing defender.  Given what they’re up against contractually already this summer (goalie Connor Hellebuyck is a key player to re-up as well), that’s going to be tough.

A long-term deal is certainly the preferred way to go here for either side.  If they can lock the 24-year-old up at a rate around Myers’ $5.5MM, I think both sides will be happy.  If that doesn’t get it done though, then there’s a chance that they’ll pivot back to looking to lock up Myers instead and look to trade Trouba.  His future with the Jets is certainly more stable than it was two summers ago but it’s not carved in stone just yet.

Clear Long-Term Cap Room

If you’ve been reading along and thinking to yourself that Winnipeg is going to have a tough time trying to keep this team together, you’re not the only one.  Cheveldayoff has already acknowledged that they’re going to be tight to the cap…and that’s for the 2018-19 season as they look to find a way to keep Stastny in the fold.  For the year after that, something has to give.

On the surface, forward Mathieu Perreault looks like a potential casualty.  Talk of his potential departure dates back to the Expansion Draft when it wasn’t a guarantee that he’d be protected and with the young talent in their system, his presence is rather superfluous.  He has a manageable $4.15MM cap hit through 2020-21 and would fit in nicely as a middle-six forward for a lot of teams and his positional flexibility is certainly an asset.  Moving him would yield some assets in return and free up some wiggle room.

The question becomes what to do if that’s not enough, especially looking ahead a year?  Beyond Perreault, only six other players are signed and the only other non-core piece is blueliner Dmitry Kulikov who looks to be untradeable at the moment following a rough injury-plagued first season in Winnipeg.  If they have to slash more payroll, it’s going to have to be a core piece that moves out.  They can probably get away with punting this decision for a little bit but any moves that the Jets make in the next year are going to have to be made with this situation in mind.  In the meantime, finding a new home for Perreault may very well be on the immediate to-do list for Cheveldayoff.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Nashville Predators

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The offseason is now in full swing with the draft now complete and free agency on the horizon.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in the weeks to come?  Our Offseason Keys series continues with a look at the Nashville Predators.

After making it to the Stanley Cup Final back in 2017, the Predators were hoping to take that final step and take home the title in 2017-18.  However, despite some midseason additions including center Kyle Turris, Nashville instead went down in the second round at the hands of Winnipeg.  With most of the team already signed for next season, Nashville’s offseason keys revolve decisions regarding their own players.

Ellis Extension

The Preds have reaped the benefits of some of their top defensemen playing for below-market value.  Among those players is Ryan Ellis who is set to enter the final year of his deal that pays $3.5MM in cash with just a $2.5MM cap hit.  Suffice it to say, his next contract is going to cost a whole lot more.

While he missed 38 games due to injury this past season, the 27-year-old still managed to put up an impressive 32 points, tying the second-most of his career.  He also has logged more than 23 minutes a night in each of the last two seasons, averages that blueliners on the top pairing often receive.  Accordingly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Ellis seek a new deal that’s commensurate with that of a top pairing defender even though he ranked fourth on the team in ice time in 2017-18.

With the jump in his role in recent years and the expected increase in the salary cap, Ellis could push for a deal in the $7MM per season range.  Fortunately for Nashville, both Roman Josi ($4MM) and Mattias Ekholm ($3.75MM) are still on below-market deals so they should be able to fit that into their payroll structure without too much difficulty.  GM David Poile called this extension Nashville’s biggest priority for the offseason so expect them to try to get something done as soon as possible; no deal can be officially announced until July 1st.

Decisions In Goal

Pekka Rinne is coming off a solid regular season but an ugly showing in the playoffs.  Between that and his age (35), some are wondering how much longer he’s going to be the starter in Nashville.  He is entering the final year of his contract in 2018-19 with a $7MM cap hit and salary.  They’ll have to decide whether or not to look into an extension or whether to ride out 2018-19 with him as the starter and then reassess the situation next offseason.

Then there’s backup Jusse Saros.  He is coming off of his entry-level contract and posted a career-best .925 SV% in 26 games while faring well in relief action during the postseason.  He has the potential to be a starter but at just 5’11, he’s undersized for the position which could call into question his long-term viability to play that role.

From there, he could sign a couple of different contracts.  It would make sense for Nashville to push for a bridge deal (two or three years) that would give them some stability at the position with Rinne’s uncertain future.  However, from Saros’ perspective, a one-year pact may make more sense as that would line up his next trip in restricted free agency with Rinne becoming a UFA while he’d also have arbitration rights at that time.  If they plan to make the 23-year-old the starter beginning in 2019-20, he’d have more leverage for a bigger deal at that time.  Second contracts for backup goalies usually aren’t a big deal but this is an interesting case to keep tabs on.

Re-Sign Hartman

One of Nashville’s in-season additions was winger Ryan Hartman, who the Preds dealt their first-round pick in the draft (27th overall).  The move didn’t exactly pan out as well as they may have hoped for.  While he played a regular role down the stretch, his playing time diminished in the postseason to less than 12 minutes per night while being a healthy scratch four times as well.

The 23-year-old has completed his entry-level deal and while things didn’t go overly well with Nashville, he is still coming off of his second straight 31-point season (with most of his 2017-18 points coming with Chicago).  That should have him in line for a raise on the $833K he earned in each of the past two seasons.

Considering how he fared with his new team, a long-term deal is out of the question and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the two sides work towards a one-year pact, especially since Hartman’s availability to start next season is in question following shoulder surgery last month.  Given what they gave up for him, it’s clear that Nashville sees him as part of their long-term future but a ‘prove it’ contract makes the most sense for them this summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Pittsburgh Penguins

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With the Stanley Cup now awarded and the draft on the horizon, the offseason is now in full swing.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in the weeks to come?  Our Offseason Keys series continues with a look at the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Although the Penguins went for it at the trade deadline by bringing in center Derick Brassard, they fell short of winning their third consecutive Stanley Cup title as they fell to the Cup-winning Capitals in the second round.  Most of the team is already under contract for 2018-19 but Pittsburgh still has a few things to do this summer.

Clear Some Payroll

As they’ve become quite accustomed to, cap space is something that the Pens don’t project to have a lot of by the time they re-sign their restricted free agents.  That will hinder their attempts to add to the roster unless they can find a way to clear some space.

Pittsburgh does have a few underachievers that they could look to find new homes for.  Winger Carl Hagelin ($4MM) is now entering the final year of his contract and the fact that he’s going to be an expiring deal should actually help his value.  While he hasn’t lit it up in recent years, speed is in high demand and now that there’s less long-term risk attached.

Winger Conor Sheary ($3MM) failed to get to his output from the previous season (53 points) but he still put up a respectable 18 goals in 2017-18.  He has shown in the past that he’s at his best when he plays alongside Sidney Crosby and has struggled when not on his wing which may give teams some pause.  However, that type of money for someone who is capable of approaching 20 goals isn’t bad so even though there are two years left, there should be a market.

Meanwhile, defenseman Matt Hunwick ($2.25MM) struggled considerably in his first year with the Penguins to the point where some wondered if he’d be a buyout candidate this summer.  They probably won’t be able to clear his full salary off the books since he has two years left on his contract but they may be able to flip him for someone making a little less that can handle the same depth role.

GM Jim Rutherford is known to be quite creative and tends to use every penny on the cap he can so if they can deal one or more of these players to free up some additional flexibility, they’ll reap the benefits of doing so whether it’s in the summer or later on in the season.

Re-Sign Or Deal Rust

In 2016-17, Sheary was the beneficiary of playing well with Crosby and got a nice contract out of it.  This summer, it’s winger Bryan Rust as he made the most of regular time in the top-six.  The 26-year-old had a career year, posting 38 points in 69 games.  For perspective, he came into 2017-18 with a total of 41 points in 112 contests.  He went from being a depth player to someone that the Penguins counted on for secondary scoring.

Rust now enters the summer one year away from unrestricted free agency and has salary arbitration rights.  He has positioned himself to jump, like Sheary, from a player hovering around the league minimum salary to one closer to the league average (which checked in at just over $3.1MM this past season.

As someone that has fit in well with the likes of Crosby and, to a lesser degree, Evgeni Malkin, giving Rust that type of contract would make some sense.  However, considering they’ve had success throwing lesser-known players into that role, perhaps they would be better served trying that approach again next season with someone like Zach Aston-Reese or Daniel Sprong (players on cheaper deals) and trading Rust to help free up some cap room or add to their back end.

Add Defensive Depth

Speaking of that back end, while Pittsburgh has an established top-four, their bottom pairing has been subject to a lot of fluctuation in recent years.  Hunwick was brought in to stabilize things but that didn’t work out as intended which necessitated a midseason trade for Jamie Oleksiak from Dallas.  They were also forced to press Chad Ruhwedel into regular action as the season progressed, including in the playoffs where he played in every game.

Last summer, the Penguins completely rebuilt their back end at the minor league level and will likely do so again this offseason.  However, this time around, they may also want to look at adding a depth player or two with a bit more of a track record at the NHL level, especially someone who is a right-shot (or can at least play that side).  There are always going to be injuries and Rutherford could stand to have a bit more insurance at that position.  Fortunately for Pittsburgh, it’s a lot easier to add depth defenders than it is top-four pieces so they shouldn’t have too much trouble shoring up that position.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: San Jose Sharks

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With the Stanley Cup now awarded, the offseason is now in full swing.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in the weeks to come?  Our Offseason Keys series continues with a look at the San Jose Sharks.

Rather than make a lot of changes following a first-round exit at the hands of the Oilers in 2017, the Sharks opted to bring the majority of the team back for another run.  That trust was rewarded as San Jose, bolstered by the addition of Evander Kane at the trade deadline, made it to the second round before being ousted by the upstart Golden Knights.  Now, GM Doug Wilson has to decide whether to follow the same playbook again this summer or to shake things up.  He already has dealt with one major offseason key with extending Kane; here are three more.

Extension Talks

Wilson has been a proponent of getting new contracts done early.  He got Kane signed before he hit the open market and last summer, he wasted no time inking goalie Martin Jones and defenseman Marc-Edouard Vlasic to long-term extensions.  Two more core players are now eligible to sign as of July 1st in center Joe Pavelski and center/winger Logan Couture and it stands to reason that the Sharks will be looking to repeat recent history with these two.

Pavelski is coming off his lowest point total since the lockout-shortened season.  That’s the bad news.  The good news is that he still put up 66 points which is still quite good.  The 33-year-old is unquestionably San Jose’s top pivot and they have used him in all situations so he is someone they’re going to want to keep around.  What will make his extension talks a little more interesting is that he will be 35 when his next contract kicks in.  Will the Sharks go with a longer term in order to try to keep the cap hit a little lower or come in with a two- or three-year offer at a higher AAV?  At either rate, expect talks to begin sooner than later if they haven’t already and that his next contract will exceed his current $6MM cap charge.

As for Couture, it sounds like talks have already started and that the team is hopeful to get something done in these next few weeks leading up to the turn of the calendar.  While the Sharks have flip-flopped at times in terms of using him on the wing instead of down the middle, he has still been a very consistent player for them, averaging between 0.69 and 0.83 points per game over the last eight seasons.  Unlike Pavelski, the 29-year-old is young enough that a max-term deal (or close to one) is certainly going to be on the table and he should be in line for a raise on his current $6MM AAV.

New Deal For Hertl

Two years ago following a 46-point season, San Jose opted to give center/winger Tomas Hertl a bridge contract instead of a long-term pact.  Now, following another 46-point season, the Sharks have to give the 24-year-old another new deal.

In his five-year NHL career, Hertl has been a capable secondary scorer but has yet to really establish himself as a true top-line forward despite having some opportunities to do so.  Despite that, he’s still an important part of their core and is someone that they’d like to keep around for a while yet.

What’s interesting here is how this could go a couple of different ways.  If the Sharks want to be active in free agency (more on that shortly), they may want to go with a one-year deal for Hertl this summer to maximize their salary cap flexibility.  His qualifying offer checks in at $3.2MM.  On the other hand, the time is right for a long-term pact as he looks to be entering the prime of his career (or close to it).

Is Hertl the type of player to commit to long-term though?  We’re seeing a time where the top players get the big bucks and more and more cheaper players coming in to offset the higher salaries.  As a result, the middle class is getting the squeeze and that’s where Hertl fits in; he’s not a top-line player but is still a legitimate top-six forward.  Are they better off committing the better part of $5MM to a second-line player or following the recent trend of bringing in a lesser player to fill that spot in order to have more money to allocate for a top-liner?  They can defer that call by signing him short-term but it’s one they’ll need to make sooner than later.

Add A Top-Six Center

The Sharks have had strong depth down the middle in recent years.  Pavelski has succeeded as a number one, pending UFA Joe Thornton (when healthy) is still a strong playmaker, while Couture and Hertl have flipped between the wing and center.  That’s a strong group to work with but none of those players are under team control for much longer.  They’re in good shape for 2018-19 but after that, it could get iffy.

Assuming at least one of Couture or Pavelski signs an extension, that gives them a bit more security for one of their top-six roles.  Thornton is at best a stop-gap; he turns 39 next month so he’s not part of the long-term plans.   Even Pavelski is a shorter-term solution given his age when his next contract kicks in.  San Jose has one legitimate center prospect in the system in Josh Norris but he’s still several years away from being ready.

Accordingly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Wilson pursue more help down the middle either via free agency or trade.  They have the cap space to make a splash since the salary cap is expected to jump by several million for next season and doing so would give them high-end center depth for 2018-19 to make them more of a contender while giving them some more security at that position long-term.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Boston Bruins

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With the Stanley Cup now awarded, the offseason is now in full swing.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in the weeks to come?  Our Offseason Keys series continues with a look at the Boston Bruins.

Last summer, the Bruins were fairly quiet as they opted to improve from within and give their youngsters some opportunities to make their mark.  They were rewarded for their patience as they nearly won the Atlantic Division while making it to the second round of the postseason before being ousted by Tampa Bay.  Now, GM Don Sweeney will be tasked with adding some pieces to help them take that next step forward.  Here are the keys to their offseason.

Re-Sign Or Replace Nash

In an effort to bolster their attack in advance of the postseason, the Bruins paid a hefty price to acquire winger Rick Nash.  The 33-year-old didn’t play poorly but he didn’t exactly move the needle either while he also battled a concussion.  Boston must now decide whether or not to re-sign him or try to fill that vacancy through other means.  At the very least, he is going to be taking a significant pay cut from the $7.8MM AAV he has had for the past eight years after failing to hit the 40-point plateau for the past three seasons.

Boston could opt to follow what worked for them this past season and earmark that spot for a youngster like Anders Bjork, Zach Senyshyn, or Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson.  However, with Jake DeBrusk and Danton Heinen already locked in as regular wingers and Ryan Donato appearing likely to have a regular spot as well, doing so could run the risk of having too many young players in important roles.  If it worked out, they’d be in great shape but if not, they may be forced to pay the price again next trade deadline.  Accordingly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them go after another winger if they can’t get Nash locked up.

Then there’s the other Nash.  Center Riley Nash emerged as a legitimate two-way threat for the first time in his career, posting 41 points in 76 games.  (For perspective, his previous career high was 25 points.)  With a weak market down the middle, the 29-year-old has positioned himself for a big raise from the $900K he made in 2017-18.  With big money tied up already in Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, and David Backes (who has played center plenty in the past), can they afford to have another pivot making above average dollars?  On the flip side, given how important he was to them, can they afford to let him go?  While Rick Nash gets most of the attention given his history, Riley is an important player they need to decide on as well.

Find A Backup Goalie

History has shown that starting goaltender Tuukka Rask has struggled when he is leaned on to play too many games.  In 2017-18, he showed that with more rest, he can still be one of the better starters in the league.  The strong play of Anton Khudobin allowed Rask to have a few more games off but the backup netminder is set to hit free agency as one of the better players available in a fairly weak goalie market.

The 32-year-old is coming off of the third-largest workload of his career after making 29 starts while posting a respectable 2.56 GAA with a .913 SV%.  Those numbers may not stand out but overall, they’re pretty good for a career backup.  As teams around the league look to take more pressure off their number ones, a player like Khudobin who has shown he can handle a larger workload than a typical backup is going to garner a fair amount of interest.

If they aren’t able to bring Khudobin back, it’s likely that they will look elsewhere in free agency as they don’t really have anyone ready to step up and take over in their system.  Zane McIntyre, once viewed as a potential number two of the future, has seen his development largely stall at AHL Providence and their other minor pro options are just starting out.  Given how important rest is to Rask, expect the Bruins to follow the recent trend of paying a bit of a premium for an above-average backup whether it’s Khudobin or someone else.

Add A Top-Four Left Shot Defenseman

In the short-term, a one-two punch of Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug on the left side isn’t too bad.  However, there are some risks if they do start next season with those two in their familiar roles.  While Chara is still defying Father Time, he can’t be asked to log well over 20 minutes per night for much longer.  Eventually, he needs to drop down the depth chart.  Meanwhile, Krug’s offensive skills are a huge plus but his play in his own end is suspect at times which rules him out from really ascending to that top pairing.  Matt Grzelcyk has shown some promise but he’s not ready for that type of role yet either.

While they didn’t get him at the deadline, they did have interest in Ryan McDonagh and a player with his skill set would go a long way to really strengthening their back end.  Unfortunately for Boston, McDonagh is unlikely to be available this summer and there isn’t anyone like him in free agency so the trade route will be the way to go here.  With the surplus of quality youngsters up front, Sweeney will at least have some trade chips at his disposal.

On the right side, Boston is in great shape long-term with Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo leading the way.  Both players have five years of team control remaining so the team can afford to shift their focus to shoring up their left side and giving a quality back end a real boost.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Toronto Maple Leafs

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With the Stanley Cup now awarded, the offseason is now in full swing.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in the weeks to come?  Our Offseason Keys series continues with a look at the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Last summer, Toronto added a pair of key veterans in free agency in Patrick Marleau and Ron Hainsey with the hopes that they would help lead a young team armed with another year of experience to bigger and better things.  They had a strong regular season but were still ousted in the first round.  This summer, the Leafs have plenty of cap space to work with (well over $20MM) but with some young stars in need of new contracts in the near future, they will have to spend wisely.  Getting those stars signed highlight Toronto’s offseason keys.

Extension Talks

Two members of Toronto’s ‘big three’ are still signed for 2018-19 in center Auston Matthews and winger Mitch Marner.  They’re both locked up on entry-level deals at $925K and $894K respectively (plus some performance bonuses) and both are well-positioned to vastly surpass that on their next deals which could impact how they spend their money this offseason.

Matthews, the first-overall selection back in 2016, has lived up to the hype and has quickly established himself as one of the top centers in the league.  Last summer, Buffalo’s Jack Eichel (the second pick in 2015) inked an eight-year, $10MM extension and that’s viewed as the benchmark for Matthews to surpass on this contract.  If he signs this summer instead of waiting for next offseason, he should rival John Tavares for the richest deal signed in the months to come.

While Matthews has received the bulk of the limelight, Marner has quickly established himself as a productive player as well; he actually led the Leafs in scoring in both the regular season and playoffs.  He’s not going to come close to what Matthews gets on his next deal but a max-term deal (or close to it) could check in between $6MM and $7MM, even factoring in the fact that four of the years on that deal are restricted free agency seasons.

Those two pending contracts could add $15MM or more (after bonuses) to Toronto’s payroll for 2019-20 and beyond.  With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to see new GM Kyle Dubas look at signing some one-year deals this summer to use their cap room for next season without cutting into their space for the following year.

New Deal For Nylander

The other member of the ‘big three’ is in need of a new contract this summer in winger William Nylander.  He’s also coming off a strong season that saw him amass 61 points for the second straight year; those are his only full NHL campaigns.  He isn’t expected to get quite as much as Marner but he’s still going to get a substantial raise from the $894K AAV (plus $850K in performance bonuses) he made in 2017-18 although he isn’t eligible for arbitration just yet.

There is another interesting decision to be made when it comes to the 22-year-old.  While he has played center in the past, he has spent the bulk of his NHL time on the right wing.  Tyler Bozak is a candidate to depart in unrestricted free agency so there is an opening to be filled down the middle.  Toronto has good prospect depth on the wing but none of their prospects are ready to take Bozak’s spot so they’ll have to decide whether they would like to shift Nylander into that role.  (Rookies Miro Aaltonen and Par Lindholm should battle for the fourth line job but won’t be ready to start on the third line.)  However, given Nylander’s smaller stature, there is a little bit of risk involved in doing so but at the same time, his playmaking skills would be even better utilized at center.  It’s certainly an interesting call for them to make that may wind up being dictated by what they do (or don’t do) in the coming months.

Add A Right-Shooting Top-Four Defenseman

In Morgan Reilly, Toronto has a quality top-pairing defender on the left side.  However, finding a partner for him has been a challenge in recent years and as a result, it should be near the top of the to-do list again this offseason as they won’t be able to fill that spot internally.

Hainsey did a nice job overall playing alongside Reilly this past season.  However, as a lefty, that’s not his natural side to play and there will certainly be some risk in asking a 37-year-old to play upwards of 22 minutes a game again.  Nikita Zaitsev is a better fit on the second pairing and no matter how many times Mike Babcock can get Roman Polak re-signed, he clearly isn’t the answer either.

In terms of their prospects, Travis Dermott is the most NHL-ready and he is also a lefty.  Timothy Liljegren is the ideal long-term fit but he’s not ready to make the jump yet.  (Igor Ozhiganov, who signed back in May, is also right-shooting defender but asking him to jump onto the top pairing right away isn’t realistic.)

In free agency, only Washington’s John Carlson really fits the bill as a top-pairing player and with the pending contracts for their top young forwards, they may have some difficulty fitting in the type of contract that he will undoubtedly command (at least beyond the 2018-19 season).  As a result, Toronto may have to go the trade route to find that fit.  Fortunately for them, the Leafs have a deep prospect pool to work with which should give Dubas some options to work with as he looks to give their back end a much-needed boost.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Keys: Columbus Blue Jackets

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With the Stanley Cup now awarded, the offseason is now in full swing.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in the weeks to come?  Our Offseason Keys series continues with a look at the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Last summer, the Blue Jackets made one of the bigger trades of the summer when they shipped Brandon Saad to Chicago in exchange for Artemi Panarin.  They were hoping that the Russian winger would provide them with more firepower up front.  While he had a nice year, the team actually scored less and were ousted in the opening round once again.  While GM Jarmo Kekalainen will assuredly want to try to add to his roster, several of his keys this summer involve dealing with his current players.

Extension Talks

A lot of teams have one notable player that they will likely sit down to discuss a contract extension with over the course of the offseason.  Columbus has three that are going to require a lot of attention including a pair of significant potential unrestricted free agents.

Let’s start with Panarin.  Being moved away from Patrick Kane and the Blackhawks didn’t exactly slow him down.  In fact, he hit the point-per-game mark for the first time in his NHL career, collecting 82 (27-55-82) in 81 games.  He led the Blue Jackets in scoring by a whopping 25 points.  It’s hard to ask for much more than that.  The 26-year-old signed a two-year, $12MM deal with the Blackhawks after they were unable to work out a long-term pact that fit under their cap structure, a decision that wound up being moot given that he was dealt before the contract even kicked in.   The price tag has only gone up since then as he projects to be one of the top forwards that could hit the open market in July 2019.

Then there’s Sergei Bobrovsky, their undisputed number one goalie.  While he didn’t put up the same numbers he did in 2016-17 that saw him win the Vezina Trophy, he was still well above average while being among the league leaders in games played and shots faced.  Joonas Korpisalo doesn’t appear to be their long-term option as goalie of the future and there isn’t anyone in the system that’s nearing NHL readiness either.  Columbus badly needs to re-sign (or replace) the 29-year-old but it won’t be cheap.  Bobrovsky is already at a $7.45MM cap hit and as salaries go up around the league, it’s not crazy to think that he’ll be the second-highest-paid goalie in the league for 2019-20 if they can get an extension done.

On the restricted free agent side is defenseman Zach Werenski.  He has quickly emerged as a core player and ranked second in their blueline in points (37) and average ice time (22:35).  In recent years, youngsters in situations like these often forego the bridge contract in favor of inking a long-term pact that buys out some UFA eligibility.  Independent of everything else, this is something Kekalainen would certainly like to do.  However, if they intend to lock up Panarin and Bobrovsky as well, they may be forced to go the shorter-term route to keep the cap hit down.  Accordingly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see any extension talks for Werenski delayed until they have a better sense of what is going on with their two UFAs.

Re-Sign Or Trade?

Defenseman Ryan Murray and forward Boone Jenner were expected to be long-term fixtures in Columbus.  Both have had up-and-down times in their careers and they both are coming off of somewhat-disappointing seasons.  With the duo now being arbitration-eligible, Kekalainen will need to decide if they’re still part of the plans for the foreseeable future or if the time has come to look into moving them.

When healthy, Murray has been a capable defender for Columbus.  The problem is, out of his five NHL seasons, he has reached the 70-game plateau just once and has played in just 64% of their games in that span.  Further adding to that frustration is the fact he was the second-overall pick back in 2012.  With Werenski heading for a major raise soon, Seth Jones and David Savard locked up for nearly $10MM combined long-term, and the expectation that they will try to bring back Ian Cole, Kekalainen needs to decide if there’s enough money to keep Murray around.

As for Jenner, he is just two years removed from a 30-goal campaign but he has barely managed to match that output over the past two seasons combined.  He has spent a fair amount of time in the bottom six while also spending most of 2016-17 on the wing.  These don’t help his trade value but at the same time, it doesn’t help Jenner’s arbitration case either.  How much should they be willing to pay Jenner who is more of a third-line center in a best-case scenario?  If it’s too much for their liking, the lack of help down the middle on the open market should give them some options to move him.

Add Top-Six Help

With both Nick Foligno and Brandon Dubinsky struggling to live up to their contracts, the Blue Jackets have been looking for top-six help going back to this past season.  They acquired Thomas Vanek at the trade deadline who wound up being quite productive so there’s certainly a possibility that they’ll look to keep him around.  Even if they do, they’re still likely to target other players to improve their depth.

One of the challenges involving potentially moving Jenner is that Columbus doesn’t have great depth down the middle, especially if they wind up cutting bait with Dubinsky.  With that in mind, don’t be surprised if they set their sights on adding a center in a trade (since the free agent market is likely to create some inflated contracts, something they can’t particularly afford with the players they need to soon re-sign).

The Blue Jackets are in a tough division but one more quality top-six forward may be enough to take them to that next level if they can keep the rest of the core of the roster intact.  It doesn’t seem likely that they will be overly active overall in terms of shaking things up but this is one need they have to fill.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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