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Offseason Checklist 2023

Offseason Checklist: Boston Bruins

at CDT | by 11 Comments

The offseason has arrived for all but the two teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup.  It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Boston.

It was an all-in year for the Bruins as they structured some contracts to buy them more flexibility this year at a high cost for next season.  That flexibility allowed them to make two significant additions at the trade deadline, setting the Presidents’ Trophy-winning club up for what they thought would be a long playoff run.  Instead, they weren’t able to pick up the final victory of their first-round series against Florida, providing an early exit and questions about what comes next.  If GM Don Sweeney intends to keep this team in contention, he’ll have some work to do in the coming weeks.

Create Cap Space

Let’s get the obvious out of the way first.  The Bruins are carrying over a significant bonus overage penalty into next season from the bonus-laden deals they handed Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci last summer.  David Pastrnak’s AAV jumped up by more than $4.5MM while Pavel Zacha added $1.25MM on his new deal compared to 2022-23.

What’s the end result of this?  They have over $78.5MM in commitments for next season already, per CapFriendly, and that’s with at least six roster spots needing to be filled.  If all of those players signed for the minimum, they could squeak by from a cap perspective.  However, one of their restricted free agents alone could basically gobble up the less than $5MM in space they have left.

As a result, Sweeney is going to have to find ways to clear up space and might need to move multiple players to do so.  We’ll look at some of those options throughout this article but if there isn’t a move to be made with some of those players, they’ll have to look at moving other pieces out.  They simply don’t have a choice, Boston has to free up money in the next few weeks.

Goaltending Decisions

Lost in the fact that Linus Ullmark had quite the season in goal for Boston was the fact that Jeremy Swayman also had a very strong year as well, improving upon his numbers from 2021-22.  Frankly, that might be underselling it as he finished fourth in the NHL in both GAA (2.27) and SV% (.920).  That’s a nice way to head into his first trip through restricted free agency.  To make matters better for him, the 24-year-old is also eligible for salary arbitration.

The market for second contracts for young goalies without a lot of NHL experience has shot up in recent years.  Carter Hart received three years at $3.979MM after just 101 games.  Jake Oettinger received three years at $4MM after only 77 regular season games (plus a strong showing in the 2022 playoffs).  Spencer Knight received three years with a $4.5MM AAV after only 36 games played.  Oettinger and Knight’s contracts were signed within the last year so these are recent comparables to work with.  On top of things, it’s also worth pointing out that Swayman’s career numbers are better than what any of these three had at the time they signed their bridge contracts.

Those three contracts should give Sweeney a good idea of what Swayman will cost on his next contract.  Basically, all their cap space, give or take a few hundred thousand.  Can Boston afford that?  Not really as things stand.

As a result, there are some decisions to be made.  When determining who to trim from the roster to create cap space for, is it worth doing it to maintain an elite tandem with Ullmark, even though it would cost around $10MM for the two of them?  Considering that top goaltending can help overcome some offensive challenges, there’s certainly a case to be made that doing so would be wise.

But if the answer to that question is no, then the question becomes who moves?  It’d be hard to move on from Ullmark, the likely Vezina Trophy winner.  He’ll turn 30 late last month so is he their goalie of the future?  Or should Swayman, who has three years of control left, be the one to keep?  Both would command strong interest but losing one of them would certainly hurt their short-term fortunes.  The amount of cap space could also be limited since a decent backup would cost at least $2MM, likely more.  Considering the goaltending market typically shakes out quickly, the Bruins will need to decide which path they plan to take fairly quickly.

Get Center Help

This season, Boston had strong depth down the middle led by veterans Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, who returned to the NHL after spending a season back home.  Bergeron finished third in the team in scoring and Krejci fifth, a nice return on a combined base cap hit of $3.5MM.  Of course, there were $4.5MM in bonuses, all of which were easily met and with the Bruins spending the season over the cap, that triggered the carryover penalty.  Both veterans are set to become unrestricted free agents once again this summer and while there’s little concern that they’ll sign elsewhere, it remains to be seen if one or both are willing to return for another year, 20 for Bergeron and 17 for Krejci.

If both decide to give it another go, they’re likely to sign similarly-structured contracts to the ones they played on, allowing Boston to kick some of the cost over to 2024-25.  However, it’d only be kicking the problem down the road as organizationally, they need to add at least one longer-term middleman.  Pavel Zacha had a career year this season and could slide back to center but when he was with New Jersey, he struggled to produce so it’s hardly a guarantee he’ll be able to back up his 57-point campaign.  Charlie Coyle is a capable secondary center but not a true top-liner at this stage of his career so he shouldn’t be the solution on the top line either.

If the Bruins want to look outside the organization, it will be tricky to land a replacement with their inability to afford a market-value contract.  There aren’t any true top options in free agency and if they want to look to the trade market (perhaps to Winnipeg for one of their middlemen), they don’t have much in the way of top picks at their disposal.  Their first available first-round pick is in 2025 while their next second-rounder is in 2026.  Prospect-wise, their pool isn’t the strongest thanks to moving out several good draft picks to help keep them in contention.

It won’t be easy to acquire one and it will be hard to afford it in their cap structure but there is a definite need down the middle to address this summer whether it’s bringing back their long-term veterans or looking elsewhere.  One way or the other, Sweeney is going to have to try to find a way to accomplish this.

Move A Blueliner

One way that Boston can try to create some cap space is to move a defenseman or two.  As things stand, they have nearly $31MM committed to seven rearguards for next season.  No other team has that much money committed to their back end.  By the time you add in Ullmark’s $5MM AAV and Swayman’s likely number near that amount, it looks like the Bruins could have half of next year’s cap committed to non-forwards.  That would certainly be a risky proposition.

Beyond Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm, it’s plausible that any of their other defensemen could be in play.  Mike Reilly is someone they’d certainly want to move after he spent most of the year at AHL Providence although they’ll likely have to incentivize a team to take him or take a similarly-sized contract back which wouldn’t help their cap situation.  He has one year left at $3MM.  Derek Forbort is another pending UFA who can still hold his own on the third pairing but $3MM for someone in that slot is on the pricey side given their cap situation.  Even moving Jakub Zboril, another 2024 UFA, for someone making the league minimum would free up a little over $300K.

As for the other pending UFA out of this group, Matt Grzelcyk is one to watch for.  He was a top-four piece not long ago but has dropped into more of a depth role and found himself on the bench at times in the playoffs.  He’s still a capable blueliner but again, he’s on the pricey side for the role he was in down the stretch.  The expected departure of Dmitry Orlov could put him back on the second pairing but it still wouldn’t be surprising to see Sweeney try to find him a new home.

Brandon Carlo is the other regular that hasn’t been mentioned.  With four years left at $4.1MM, his contract is certainly reasonable for a second-pairing defender although he’s not exactly the type of blueliner that’s going to jump in the play and contribute much offensively.  In an ideal world, Boston would probably want to keep him but if they find themselves having to trade for a center, Carlo would be one of their more asked-about trade chips in such a scenario so moving him can’t be ruled out either.

For now, the Bruins have the costliest defense in the NHL.  It seems unlikely that will still be the case in October when the 2023-24 campaign gets underway.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Los Angeles Kings

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The offseason has arrived for all but the two teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup.  It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Los Angeles.

The Kings bolstered their offense with the acquisition of Kevin Fiala last summer and he helped improve their attack from the 20th-best team in 2021-22 to ninth in the league in scoring this season which also helped them surpass the 100-point mark for the first time since 2015-16.  However, they were once again by Edmonton in the first round.  Slow and steady improvement is rarely a bad way to go and their checklist for this summer is based on the idea of them staying on their current trajectory.

Kopitar Extension Talks

Anze Kopitar has been a fixture in the lineup for the Kings since 2006, a year after being the 11th overall pick.  He sits third in franchise history in points and should be able to move into second place about a month or so into the season.  The two-time Selke winner has one year left on his contract and accordingly, he is eligible for a contract extension as of July 1st.  Kopitar’s current deal carries a $10MM AAV, one that seemed a bit steep at the time but he has certainly lived up to it.  However, he’s also 35 and by the time his next contract starts in October 2024, he’ll be 37.

With the center depth that Los Angeles amassed in recent years – including top-five selections in Quinton Byfield and Alex Turcotte – it looked as if their plan was that they would be able to replace Kopitar by the time his deal was up.  That doesn’t seem likely to happen though; Byfield spent time on the wing this season while Turcotte has struggled in the minors at times and isn’t ready for NHL duty.  Phillip Danault was a nice addition in free agency in 2021 but he isn’t a prototypical top center either.

Accordingly, it seems likely that GM Rob Blake will look to sign his captain to an extension.  It’s almost certainly going to be a short-term deal (somewhere between two and four seasons) where the longer the term, the lower the AAV.  Kopitar won’t be eyeing a $10MM price tag again on that next agreement but he’s coming off a 74-point effort, his highest since 2017-18.  As a result, it wouldn’t be surprising to see an extension check in somewhere around the $7.5MM mark, allowing him to remain with the only NHL franchise he has ever known while keeping some stability down the middle while they hope for their prospects to eventually move into a more critical spot in the lineup.

Re-Sign The Columbus Rentals

At the trade deadline, the Kings did their shopping in one move, picking up goaltender Joonas Korpisalo and defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov from the Blue Jackets.  Both players are pending unrestricted free agents and with how they performed with their new team, the Kings would certainly like to keep them around.

Korpisalo signed a one-year deal with Columbus last summer coming off surgery in the hopes that he could show he was healthy and rebuild some value.  Mission accomplished on that front.  He did well with the Blue Jackets and then after the trade, the 29-year-old took over the starting role quickly with a 2.13 GAA and a .921 SV% in 11 starts.  Because of his more volatile track record, Korpisalo won’t be able to command top dollar on the free agent market which works in the Kings’ favor but he is still in line for a significant raise on the $1.4MM he made this season.  It shouldn’t need to get to Calvin Petersen-type money but getting Korpisalo signed should give them some upside at the goaltending position for next season.

As for Gavrikov, the 27-year-old took a step back from his 2021-22 performance with Columbus but found another gear following the trade, notching nine points in 20 games following the swap.  He’s a legitimate top-four defenseman in a UFA market that doesn’t have a lot of them.  While Gavrikov’s AAV over the last three seasons was $2.8MM, his salary this season was $4.2MM, a figure that’s likely to stand as a reasonable starting point for extension talks.  It’s worth noting that a report last month had the two sides making progress on a new deal although clearly, that hasn’t gotten across the finish line yet.

New Deal For Vilardi

Staying healthy was a challenge for forward Gabriel Vilardi early in his career with lingering back troubles being problematic.  Even this season, while his back wasn’t an issue, he had multiple injuries that caused him to miss 19 games in the regular season plus the first game of the Edmonton series.  However, when he was in the lineup, he made an impact.  After notching just 18 goals on his entry-level deal, the 23-year-old bested that total in 2022-23, picking up 23 goals and 18 assists in 63 games, giving them a pretty nice return on a one-year, $825K contract.

That deal is now up this summer and Vilardi will once again be a restricted free agent.  The big difference this time around is now he’ll be arbitration-eligible and obviously has a much better platform year to work from.  Given their desire to re-sign Korpisalo and Gavrikov, it’s reasonable to think another bridge contract will be coming Vilardi’s way if they’re able to ink those two.  A shorter-term agreement should see the AAV fall somewhere in the mid-$2.5MM range but if they work out a pact that buys some extra years of club control, it could creep closer to the $4MM mark.

Trade From Defensive Depth

There are going to be a lot of teams looking for defensive depth this summer.  That’s great news for Los Angeles as they project to have a blueliner available.  Assuming Gavrikov re-signs, that would give them a top-three of him, Drew Doughty, and Michael Anderson that are signed for multiple seasons.  Top prospect Brandt Clarke could be ready for full-time NHL duty as soon as next season.  That’s a nice top-four to work with.

Meanwhile, they have Matt Roy and Sean Durzi who will be entering the final year of their respective contracts next season.  They also have prospect Tobias Bjornfot who was shuffled to and from the AHL frequently this year but is now waiver-eligible.  Additionally, prospect Jordan Spence has lit it up with AHL Ontario the last two seasons and is probably ready for a long look with the big club as well.  Kevin Connauton and Jacob Moverare are pegged to be in the minors but also have NHL experience.  All things considered, their depth is pretty strong.

There’s nothing wrong with having extra depth but there’s a case to be made to move one of them even after trading Sean Walker earlier today.  Durzi’s just 24 with three years of club control remaining and should bring back a nice return and a bit more cap room (he has a $1.7MM AAV) while making room for one of Spence or Clarke.  They could try to move Spence and cash in on his rising value.  There’s still room to move one more defender and with demand for blueliners being high, that should work in Blake’s favor should he opt to make another move.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Tampa Bay Lightning

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The offseason has arrived for all but the two teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup.  It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Tampa Bay.

After three straight Stanley Cup Final appearances, the Lightning weren’t able to make it four straight this season.  Instead, the third seed in the Atlantic Division fell in six to Toronto.  GM Julien BriseBois is all in on trying to keep as much of this core as possible so accordingly, their checklist this summer revolves around that desire.

Sign A Backup Goalie

Let’s start with a relatively simple one for Tampa Bay to hit on.  Brian Elliott has been the backup for the Lightning for the last two seasons.  The first one went well – better than expected, even – but 2022-23 was nowhere near that level.  His goals-against-average was up by nearly a full goal (2.43 to 3.40) while his save percentage dipped 21 points (.912 to .891).  He basically went from an above-average second-stringer to a below-average one.  Of course, the 38-year-old still provided some value for the team thanks to his $900K cap hit, just $150K below the league minimum.

With a little over $7MM in cap room per CapFriendly (which includes Brent Seabrook’s LTIR space), the cost of Andrei Vasilevskiy’s backup next season is almost as important as how they perform.  Is there a goalie on the open market that will be willing to take close to the minimum salary to play 20-25 games next season for the Lightning?  Probably.  Will that netminder be better than another season of Elliott?  That’s a decision that will need to be made once the free agent market opens up next month.

Try To Keep Killorn

Alex Killorn picked a pretty good time for a career year.  More specifically, another career year.  After setting new personal benchmarks in 2021-22 in assists (34) and points (59) as a 32-year-old, he went and did it again this season with 27 goals, 37 assists, and 64 points.  Impressively, he was able to do so despite seeing his ice time cut by nearly a minute and a half per game with a lot of that drop coming from the power play.  Heading into an opportunity to test the open market for the first time in his career, things went pretty well this year for Killorn.

His seven-year, $31.5MM started out on the pricey side relative to his point totals but has turned into a team-friendly deal the last couple of years.  Now, the 33-year-old will enter the market as the highest-scoring UFA, putting him in a spot to cash in with one last long-term agreement.

Tampa Bay would love for Killorn’s tenure to continue with them.  Making that happen, however, will certainly be challenging.  There’s no way they can afford to pay market value to bring the winger back as they need to spread that $7MM in cap room across at least five roster spots.  Even if the other four were at the minimum salary, the maximum they could offer Killorn would still represent a small cut from what he was making before.

Basically, their only hope to keep him around as things stand might be to work out a max-term contract or very close to it.  In exchange for being paid into his early 40s, Killorn would likely accept a price tag below what he made on his now-expiring contract and well below market value.  Frankly, even that feels like a stretch, not to mention the pressure points it would put on their other free agents (more on them momentarily).  Their other option to try to keep Killorn would be to move another player out to create some extra cap room.  Nick Paul ($3.15MM) is one candidate that stands out but he’s signed through 2028-29, a term that might be too long for most other teams to willingly take on.

It certainly doesn’t feel like Killorn will be back with the Lightning next season unless he’s willing to leave a lot of money on the table to stay with the only NHL organization he has ever been with since they drafted him back in 2007.  However, given his importance to the team, expect BriseBois to exhaust every possible way to try to make it happen over the next few weeks.

Deal With Pending RFAs

Now let’s get to those pending restricted free agents.  Tampa Bay has two of note to deal with this summer, wingers Tanner Jeannot and Ross Colton.  Notably, both players are arbitration-eligible and have one year of club control left before they can become unrestricted free agents as soon as 2024.  That option does give them some leverage in upcoming negotiations.

Jeannot was the Lightning’s key acquisition at the trade deadline when they parted with five draft picks over the next three seasons (one in each of the first five rounds of the draft) along with young defenseman Cal Foote to bring in the rugged winger.  In 2021-22, he had a breakout year with Nashville, notching 24 goals and 17 assists along with 130 penalty minutes and 318 hits, putting him in the top ten in Calder Trophy voting.

However, he wasn’t able to repeat the offensive production this season, notching just six goals with a dozen assists with 107 penalty minutes and 290 hits.  That said, considering how much they paid to get him, it stands to reason that BriseBois will be looking to sign Jeannot to a multi-year deal and make him a big part of their bottom six moving forward.  A contract like that will push past the $2MM mark at a minimum, likely closer to $3MM if it’s a long-term pact.

As for Colton, he has worked his way into a capable secondary scorer the last two seasons after scoring the Cup-clinching goal in 2021.  He had 16 goals and 16 assists this season, a year after putting up 22 tallies and 17 helpers.  Colton can play down the middle which also boosts his value.  Basically, his value has gone up to a point where it’s quite unlikely that they’ll be able to afford to keep him; a multi-year deal likely pushes the $3MM mark.

The good news for Tampa Bay is that Colton should have some value on the trade market.  Even with a lot of teams being tight to the cap, a capable middleman with a decent playoff track record is sure to generate some interest.  Draft picks and prospects would certainly help but it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Lightning try to acquire a controllable depth piece or two to help offset the potential losses of Corey Perry and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, important role players that are set to hit the open market this summer.  Tampa has had to move quality pieces in recent years and there’s a good chance that Colton finds himself in that situation this summer.

Stamkos Extension Talks

Over the last couple of years, BriseBois has actively sought to sign players to extensions as soon as they become eligible.  Last summer, Mikhail Sergachev, Erik Cernak, and Anthony Cirelli all signed on July 1st.  The year before, it was Brayden Point getting his new deal in place on July 28th, the first day of the new league year.  With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to see history repeat itself, this time with captain Steven Stamkos.

The 33-year-old hasn’t been able to get back to the 50-goal mark that he did in two of his first four seasons but he remains a consistent impact scorer.  A year after putting up a career-high 106 points, Stamkos took a small step back this season but still scored 34 goals along with 50 assists in 81 games to finish third on the team in scoring.  While it’s fair to believe that he will start slowing down at some point, he should have several more strong seasons in him before that point.

Given his age, Stamkos’ next contract should come in below his current $8.5MM AAV.  It’s possible that they look to do what they’ve tried to with Killorn by offering a longer-term agreement in exchange for a more favorable cap charge but if they opt for more of a medium-term contract, it should check in closer to the $7.5MM to $8MM range.  This is something that isn’t a rush for the Lightning – Stamkos’ last negotiation came much closer to the wire – but knowing the affinity BriseBois has for his core, expect him to take a run at getting this done early in the summer, possibly as soon as July 1st, the first day a new deal can be finalized.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Minnesota Wild

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The offseason has arrived for all but the two teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup.  It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Minnesota.

Despite leading the NHL in dead cap space by a significant margin, the Wild were in the thick of the playoff race at the trade deadline, resulting in GM Bill Guerin opting to add several pieces to aid in what they hoped would be a long playoff run.  Instead, it was an early exit at the hands of Dallas.  The in-season flexibility they had is no more but Minnesota’s checklist this offseason involves trying to add proven (and thus, more expensive) players at multiple positions to their roster.

Look For Center Upgrade

This has been a long-standing issue for the Wild going back for years.  They have always had some strong pieces on their roster but finding consistent impact middlemen has been a challenge.  Joel Eriksson Ek is coming along nicely and has become a quality two-way top-six center but isn’t a top option.  Frederick Gaudreau has fared better than they could have hoped when they signed him in 2021 but he’s not an ideal top-six threat.  Ryan Hartman can play down the middle but is a better fit on the wing while Sam Steel isn’t the solution either.

In an ideal world, the Wild find a way to land a top center, filling a long-standing need and giving Kirill Kaprizov a true running mate on the top line.  But realistically, is that achievable?  There aren’t any true number one options in free agency and while Winnipeg might have an impact center available on the trade front, would they really move him within the division?  That doesn’t seem too likely.

Taking a step down, adding another second-line center, while still a difficult task in this market, would still be a big help.  That would at least allow them to mix and match the newcomer with Eriksson Ek which helps in matchups.  It would also give them a boost offensively after finishing 22nd in the NHL in goals scored.  However, it must be said that they only have about $9MM in cap space per CapFriendly with anywhere from six to eight players needing to fit into that money.  Finding a way to add some proven help down the middle would result in them subtracting from somewhere else on their roster.

Minnesota still likely has high hopes for Marco Rossi, the ninth-overall pick back in 2020.  A natural center, he could eventually fill a spot in the top six.  But that time won’t be coming next season after a tough showing that saw him record just one assist in 19 NHL games although he picked up 51 points in 53 games with AHL Iowa.  Down the road, Rossi could be an option but they shouldn’t be counting on him for too much in 2023-24.

Re-Sign Gustavsson

Last offseason, Guerin freed up some cap room by moving Cam Talbot to Ottawa for Filip Gustavsson, a move that opened up nearly $2.9MM in flexibility.  The swap certainly carried some risk to it as they went from a proven NHL netminder to one that had all of 27 games of experience with numbers that weren’t overly confidence-inspiring.  However, those concerns were unfounded as the 24-year-old had a simply dominant 2022-23 campaign, recording a 2.10 GAA and a .931 SV% in 39 games, ranking him second to only Boston’s Linus Ullmark in both categories.

The timing was great for such a showing as Gustavsson is set to become a restricted free agent this summer with salary arbitration rights for the first time.  He’s well-positioned to earn a significant raise on the $787.5K AAV he had the last two seasons although, with now just 66 regular season appearances under his belt, it’s fair to say that he doesn’t have enough of a track record to land true starter money (nor can they afford to give him that).

One question that Guerin will need to answer is how long he wants the deal to be.  Gustavsson is two years away from UFA eligibility while they also have top prospect Jesper Wallstedt waiting in the wings.  A long-term contract is out of the question but is the better play to do a medium-term agreement or a one-year pact that buys both sides more time to assess if his performance was a one-off or a sign of things to come?

The one-year deal would be cheaper (likely somewhere in the $3MM area) but it would also give him a quick ticket to file for arbitration in 2024 and go straight to unrestricted free agency the following year if he wanted.  On the slip side, a contract that buys out a year or two of UFA eligibility would likely push past the $4MM mark but give them a bit of certainty in the NHL with Marc-Andre Fleury’s deal up next summer and Wallstedt still a few years away from being ready to push for the starting job.  But can they afford that and accomplish everything else they want or need to this summer?  That could be tricky and ultimately dictate what direction they go with their young netminder.

Zuccarello Extension Talks

While his tenure with Minnesota got off to a bit of a slow start in 2019-20 in the first of his five-year deal, veteran winger Mats Zuccarello has been one of the key producers for the Wild since then.  The 35-year-old has frequently been on a line with Kaprizov and the results were certainly there this season as Zuccarello surpassed the 20-goal mark for the second time while picking up 67 points, the second-most of his career.  His two most productive years have been the last two seasons.  That’s certainly a strong selling point heading into extension talks this summer; Zuccarello is eligible for a new deal as of July 1st.

Zuccarello’s next deal will be a 35-plus agreement as he’ll be starting his age-37 season in 2024-25 but even so, there’s a good chance he’ll get a multi-year contract.  However, that age is likely to be a mitigating factor when it comes to the cost.  At a $6MM price tag currently, his recent level of production would typically move that AAV higher but it might not in this case.

Some teams have shown a willingness to add on an extra year than they might prefer in return for a lower cap hit and it wouldn’t be too shocking to see Minnesota do so here.  They still have two seasons of significant dead cap space from the Ryan Suter and Zach Parise buyouts before those costs dip by more than $13MM.  That would make it easier for them to carry Zuccarello a little longer on their books long-term while his accepting a similar (if not slightly lesser) cap charge now will help their short-term challenges for 2024-25.  This one doesn’t have to get done now but as the offseason progresses, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the two sides get the ball rolling on discussions.

Add Defensive Help

Minnesota’s back end is going to look a bit different on opening night in October compared to the unit that they iced at the end of the first round against Dallas.  Long-time Wild blueliner Mathew Dumba seems all but a lock to move on now following a tough year.  Trade deadline addition John Klingberg was a straight rental and isn’t expected to be back either.  On top of that, veteran Alex Goligoski clearly doesn’t seem to be a part of their plans moving forward after being scratched more than 30 times during the regular season and the entire first round.  He still has another year left at $2MM and it’s likely they wouldn’t mind finding a new home for him, assuming Goligoski waives his trade protection.

Additionally, there are questions about Calen Addison’s future with the team after he, too, sat in the playoffs.  The 23-year-old had a productive year with 29 points in 62 games and is set to become a restricted free agent for the first time this summer.  He should have some trade value if they decide to move him but that’s also going to open up another spot on the back end to fill.

Brock Faber will be around for his first full professional campaign after signing late in the season but there is definitely at least one opening to fill, even if Addison sticks around.  In a perfect world, a top-four blueliner to round out the top three of Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin, and Jacob Middleton but again, that will be tricky given their current salary cap situation.  Guerin is going to have to get creative to address this in the coming weeks as a result.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: New York Islanders

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The offseason has arrived for all but the three teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup.  It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Islanders.

New York has made several bold moves over the last 12 months, first moving a first-round pick to add defenseman Alexander Romanov from Montreal before moving another first-rounder along with Anthony Beauvillier and Aatu Raty to acquire center Bo Horvat from Vancouver.  They wasted little time extending Horvat to a new deal with a cap hit of $8.5MM just months after extending Mathew Barzal on a max-term agreement worth $9.15MM per season.  Despite the aggressiveness from GM Lou Lamoriello, the end result was a quick exit from the playoffs.  While this summer shouldn’t feature much in the way of bold activity, the Isles still have some things to accomplish.

Sign A Backup Goalie

For the past four seasons, Semyon Varlamov has been an important netminder for the Islanders.  He has been quite consistent as well with his save percentage in three of those seasons ranging from .911 to .914; the outlier was his career-best performance in 2020-21 (.929) which saw him crack the top five in Vezina voting.  In the last two years, he has ceded playing time to Ilya Sorokin which made his $5MM AAV a bit on the high side but New York was able to play an above-average netminder in every game this season.  Not too many teams could say that.

However, the 35-year-old is set to hit the open market in July and with Sorokin entrenched as the starter, it’s reasonable to think that Varlamov will look to head elsewhere in the hopes of a bigger role although regardless of where he lands, it’s quite likely that he’ll be facing a cut in pay as well.  Lamoriello will need to find a replacement.  It would be surprising to see that replacement coming from inside the organization as veteran Cory Schneider is also set to hit the open market while AHL starter Jakub Skarek has yet to see NHL action.

With a projection of around $5.3MM in cap space per CapFriendly with other spots to fill (more on those later) and the fact that Sorokin is one of the better starters in the NHL, it would seem that this is a spot that Lamoriello can try to shop closer to the lower end of the market and target a second-stringer closer to the $1.5MM range.  Of course, there’s a risk in doing so if Sorokin gets hurt but many teams with a top goalie adopt this approach to allow them to spend more on other spots so it would be quite reasonable for New York to follow suit.

Clear Bailey’s Contract

Josh Bailey has been with the Islanders for quite a long time.  Very quietly, he ranks third in franchise history in games played, just three behind Denis Potvin for second.  He’s seventh in Islanders history in points and a decent showing next season could get him into the top five.  The 33-year-old has been with the team for 15 seasons now after making the jump to the NHL just months after being drafted in the first round back in 2008.  All things considered, he has been a pretty good ninth-overall selection.

And yet, in spite of all of this, one of the biggest keys to their offseason is the Islanders finding a way to offload the final year of Bailey’s contract, one that carries a $5MM AAV.  After more than 1,000 games played, he has started to slow down and his point production (25) this season was the second-lowest of his career.  The only time it was lower was the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign.  Bailey is being paid like a top-six forward but it’s fair to wonder if he can be that type of player anymore.

Let’s look back at their cap figure from earlier, around $5.3MM in cap space.  If they can find a way to move Bailey elsewhere, that comes close to doubling and all of a sudden, Lamoriello has some options to try to add to his roster.  If he’s unable to move him though, then they are going to be very limited in what they can do.

Of course, moving Bailey’s contract outright is going to be a challenge.  Yes, there are some teams who will be able to take on a bad deal for a season but they’re not going to do so without being properly incentivized.  With several teams needing to offload salary, the price to do it is going to be steep.  New York’s prospect pool has taken a hit lately and again, they don’t have a first-rounder in the upcoming draft.  If it costs a first-rounder to move that contract, are they going to be willing to do it?  Yes, they have all their upcoming second-round selections but two of those might not be enough if there are a high number of motivated teams that want or need to clear money.

There is another option to consider, the buyout.  It would save some money this season – $2.333MM – but when you factor in that another player (making at least $775K) has to fill his spot, the net savings aren’t enough to really give them many more spending options this summer.  Add that to the fact he’d carry a dead cap charge of $1.167MM in 2024-25 and it’s not a route they’re going to want to pursue.

For a decade and a half, Bailey has basically been a fixture in the lineup for the Islanders.  It’s a tough way to leave but expect them to be quite active in trying to prevent him from suiting up for a 16th season with the franchise.

Re-Sign Or Replace Mayfield

One of the things that Lamoriello needs more cap space to do this summer is to re-sign defenseman Scott Mayfield.  When former GM Garth Snow signed Mayfield to a five-year contract when he barely had 100 career NHL games under his belt, eyebrows were raised.  However, the AAV of that agreement – $1.45MM – was low enough to mitigate the risk while giving the blueliner a guaranteed payday after spending a lot of time in the minors.

Let’s just say that the contract worked out splendidly for the Isles.  Mayfield has been a steady regular throughout the life of the agreement, averaging just shy of 20 minutes a night over those five seasons.  Basically, he has been a top-four defenseman at a cost that is less than what a lot of teams pay their sixth option.

Now that Mayfield is set to hit the open market for the first time, he won’t be a bargain any longer.  The 30-year-old has a chance to triple that AAV (or at least come close to doing so), taking him closer to the $4MM mark, a number that would take up the majority of their limited cap room.  A right-shot defender, Mayfield will be one of the top options on that side of the ice in free agency.

Mayfield has made it clear that his desire is to remain with the Islanders but if his market price gets too high, New York will need to pivot elsewhere; one way or another, they’ll need to spend on a defender in the coming weeks.  But if they can create some extra cap flexibility sooner than later, there’s a good chance that Mayfield will get his wish and stay with the team that drafted him in the second round back in 2011.

Add Scoring Help

While the Islanders added Horvat midseason to try to help their offense, his production dipped upon being acquired as he had just seven goals in 30 regular season games after the swap while only tallying once in six playoff games.  The team finished 23rd in scoring despite Brock Nelson having a career year while Anders Lee matched his 28-goal showing from 2021-22; Zach Parise passed the 20-goal mark as well.

The problem is that those were the only players to have at least 20 goals on the season.  If the threshold is lowered to 15, only Kyle Palmieri clears that plateau and only sparingly.  Yes, injuries to him and Barzal didn’t help but full seasons from those two wouldn’t have moved them into being an above-average team offensively.

This is where freeing up Bailey’s salary could go a long way, assuming the space they have now is earmarked for the back end.  If they could use that on a more productive forward (one that would score more than the eight goals that Bailey potted), that would give them at least a small boost.  They wouldn’t be able to add a top liner for that money but any upgrade would help.  Oliver Wahlstrom – who also battled injury trouble this season – is young enough to still improve and him becoming a 20-goal player would also help.

There are enough pieces here to at least get to becoming a mid-pack team offensively; doing so would likely get them a few more wins which could be enough to push for a top-three seed in the division if all goes well next season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Winnipeg Jets

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The offseason has arrived for all but the three teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup.  It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Winnipeg.

It was a rocky season for the Jets.  At one point, they were atop the Central Division and rolling under new head coach Rick Bowness.  By the end, they barely squeaked into the playoffs and went out quickly in the first round, earning a public rebuke from Bowness along the way.  GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has four prominent players on his roster that are or could be UFA-eligible in 2024.  Not surprisingly, the bulk of their checklist revolves around those four players.

Goaltending Decisions

Let’s get one of those players out of the way first.  Connor Hellebuyck has been Winnipeg’s MVP for several seasons now, often providing high-end goaltending to get or keep them in the playoff picture.  He has done so on a team-friendly deal as well; while his $6.17MM is above the NHL average, he’s a goalie that has been well above league average.  Next summer, he’ll become one of the top-paid netminders in the league.  Will Winnipeg be the team to give it to him?  At a minimum, Cheveldayoff needs to make a serious extension offer and then see what happens from there.  If the 30-year-old balks at signing, then they’ll have to investigate moving him as well.

On top of that, the Jets also need a backup goalie for next season.  As they’ve done in recent years, Winnipeg went for a lower-cost option this year in David Rittich who had a nice bounce-back campaign, posting a 2.68 GAA with a .901 SV% in 21 games.  He’s earned a small raise so Winnipeg will either have to allocate more to their backup position or look for a new second-stringer.  Also worth considering is that if they trade Hellebuyck, they’ll likely have to change gears and look for a more prominent backup.  That could lend a pressure point to the Hellebuyck talks even though he isn’t eligible to sign until July 1st.

There’s also a longer-term element to consider.  There is no high-end starter of the future in their system (although Domenic DiVincentiis had a strong year in the OHL) which is another pressure point on the Hellebuyck situation.  If they don’t keep him, they don’t have anyone in the system close to being ready to step in.  With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them target a signed prospect goalie this summer and if they do move their star netminder, it’s quite likely that they’ll be showing interest in a strong prospect goaltender as part of the return package.

Decide On Dubois

Last summer, RFA center Pierre-Luc Dubois was the predominant storyline in Winnipeg among their players.  He had indicated that his intention was not to sign a long-term deal with the team and there has been no shortage of speculation that Montreal would be where he would like to end up.  Interestingly, he didn’t file for arbitration last summer, a move that likely cost him some money as he wound up accepting his $6MM qualifying offer.  That means they get to go through this all over again this summer.

Dubois is once again arbitration-eligible but filing would lock in a contract date near the end of July once the hearing has concluded and the award has been issued, should it get that far.  If his intention is to try to force a trade, he might opt to repeat what he did last summer, eschewing arbitration and waiting it out in the hopes that a move is made and he can potentially negotiate a long-term deal with the acquiring team.

But the Jets aren’t under any obligation to move him to his desired destination(s).  They can opt to treat him like a typical rental player and even if teams believe Dubois will test the open market in 2024, Winnipeg should still get a good return if they opt to move him this summer, especially with a thin crop of available players this year.  But that’s still an if.  It’s possible that Cheveldayoff still hopes he can change Dubois’ mind and convince him that it’s worth staying in Winnipeg.  It’s also quite possible that he opts to keep Dubois to start the season in the hopes of helping the Jets stay in the playoff picture and then pivots to a trade closer to the deadline if they’re not in the race.  Again, in that scenario, he’d likely be the top middleman available and could bring back a strong return.

At the moment, it seems like the probable outcome with Dubois is that he gets moved.  But when that happens is the decision that needs to be made.  It could be dictated by what happens with their other 2024 UFAs which could ultimately make this a big summer of change in Winnipeg or more of the same.

Clear The Defensive Logjam

The Jets boast strong depth on the back end, one that has served well when injuries have arisen but also created some frustration with their younger players with both Logan Stanley and Ville Heinola making it known to management that if they’re not going to play with the Jets, that they wouldn’t mind being moved elsewhere.  On top of that, they lost Johnathan Kovacevic to Montreal in training camp on waivers with the 25-year-old going on to play 77 games with the Canadiens this season.  They also lost Leon Gawanke who opted to sign in Germany for next season (and well beyond) after his frustration at not getting a chance with the big club.

Nothing is set to change as things stand for next season as there are no pending unrestricted free agents on their back end while Stanley and Dylan Samberg need new deals as restricted free agents.  Heinola is presently ninth on the depth chart with Declan Chisholm tenth and a pretty strong candidate to be claimed on waivers if he doesn’t crack the team out of training camp in the fall.  Depth can be great to have but there can be too much of it, especially in the preseason when waivers really come into play.  It appears that Winnipeg is going to be in that situation.

There are three defenders that are set to enter the final year of their respective deals.  Brenden Dillon and Dylan DeMelo will be unrestricted in 2024 while Kyle Capobianco will be a restricted free agent.  One (or two) of those three being out of the picture would open up opportunities for their younger blueliners to step up and try to claim a full-time spot at a much cheaper price point compared to Dillon ($3.9MM) and DeMelo ($3MM).  Winnipeg might also want to move Nate Schmidt but with two years left at just under $6MM, getting value for him would be difficult.

There should be a decent market for Dillon and/or DeMelo.  Both are capable of logging nearly 20 minutes a night and killing penalties and in terms of market value, are on reasonable contracts.  If another team is looking for one of those pieces but doesn’t want a long-term commitment that a free agent this summer would want, they’ll certainly be calling up Winnipeg.  It might be in Cheveldayoff’s best interest to make a move on that front in the coming weeks.

Decisions On Other 2024 UFAs

We still haven’t covered all the 2024 UFAs of note that decisions will need to be made on.  Top center Mark Scheifele is in that situation as well, as is former captain Blake Wheeler.

Scheifele posted a career-high 42 goals this season while reaching the 60-point mark for the eighth straight season.  Quietly, he has the 14th-most points league-wide over that eight-year stretch.  Fortunately for Winnipeg, he has produced most of that on what has been a very team-friendly deal, one that has carried a $6.125MM AAV for the last seven seasons with one more to go.  For a top center, that’s well below market value.  That will change next summer when he should have a chance to push for around $9.5MM (or more, depending on the cap increase) in free agency.

It’s likely that Winnipeg will try to re-sign him, even if some feel that they need to shake up their core somewhat.  Simply put, letting a top middleman go isn’t a great way to try to win.  But is Scheifele willing to extend right now?  After the playoffs, he said it was too soon to think about his nearing free agency.  The Jets will be pushing for a decision soon enough.

As for Wheeler, he’s at a different stage of his career; there isn’t a big next contract coming his way.  He has been a fixture with this franchise for more than a decade and has been quite productive; in the last eight years, he’s 15th league-wide in scoring, one point behind Scheifele.  The 36-year-old still had a reasonable 2022-23 campaign, notching 55 points.

However, it feels like his time with the team could be coming to an end.  It was a bit surprising to see him stay after losing the captaincy although his $8.25MM AAV might have had something to do with that.  But with one year remaining, it’s an easier contract to move while a buyout would free up $5.5MM on the cap for 2023-24 (while adding $2.75MM in dead space the following season).  Cheveldayoff needs to decide if a fresh start for both sides is best and after teams do their summer spending, that contract will become quite difficult to move.  Accordingly, this is a choice that will need to be made in the next few weeks.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Calgary Flames

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The offseason has arrived for all but the three teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup.  It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Calgary.

2022-23 was not the season that the Flames were hoping for.  A roster that underwent some significant changes this summer still bolstered a strong lineup on paper but too many players struggled, resulting in them just missing out on the postseason.  There have already been changes as Brad Treliving opted not to return as GM while Don Maloney, while acting as interim GM, dismissed head coach Darryl Sutter.  Now, they’re on their third GM in six weeks with Craig Conroy taking over this week and he’ll have plenty of work to do this offseason.

Hire A Head Coach

Let’s get the obvious one out of the way first.  With Sutter gone, the Flames are once again in need of a new bench boss.  It’s a common theme for Calgary as the last coach to be behind the bench for 200 straight games was Bob Hartley and he was let go back in 2016.  (If you’re curious who the last Calgary coach to coach for 300 straight games in a single stint, you have to go all the way back to the late Bob Johnson in the 1980s.)

Conroy, who has been with the Flames’ front office for 13 years, is familiar with the internal options, of which there are a few.  Associate coach Kirk Muller has experience running an NHL bench back with Carolina while Ryan Huska has been an assistant for the past five seasons and was believed to be a finalist for the job in Detroit last season.  Meanwhile, Mitch Love, their coach at AHL Calgary, has won the Louis AR Pieri Memorial Award as Coach of the Year for the past two seasons, his only two seasons behind the bench.

Externally, the usual candidates are fairly well-known at this point, ranging from veterans like Gerard Gallant and Peter Laviolette to coaches looking for a second opportunity such as Andrew Brunette and Travis Green, plus first-time hopefuls like Spencer Carbery, Alex Tanguay, and Jay Leach.  Getting back to their offensive underperformance this season, it stands to reason that they’ll be looking for a head coach that’s offensive-minded to help get the most out of their core group and turn that weakness around.

Extension Discussions

During his introductory press conference, Conroy indicated that it “doesn’t make sense” to enter next season with as many potential unrestricted free agents as there currently are.  It’s not as if there are one or two to deal with either; there are seven of some significance.

The most prominent one that Conroy will have to deal with is Elias Lindholm.  The 28-year-old is only one season removed from a 42-goal campaign, plays big minutes on both the power play and penalty kill, and consistently wins faceoffs at an above-average rate.  Lindholm isn’t thought of by all as a number one center but he’d fit that role on quite a few teams.  He has been on a team-friendly $4.85MM for the last five years with one more season to go.  It’s safe to say he’ll be getting several million more on this next contract, one that has a good chance to be a max-term agreement as well.  There are plenty of teams that would love to add Lindholm this summer in a weak UFA market so if Lindholm expresses a desire either to test free agency in 2024 or indicates that he’s likely to move on, Conroy might opt to move him quickly.

Two other forwards that need to be looked at are long-time center Mikael Backlund and winger Tyler Toffoli.  Both players are coming off career years offensively which will certainly complicate things.  Backlund will hit the market next year at the age of 35 and there will be questions as to how much longer he can play a top-six role which will go a long way toward determining his next salary.  He’s currently on a $5.35MM deal and if Backlund thinks he has another strong year or two offensively in him, he could be looking for a small raise.  As for Toffoli, he has fit in quite well since being acquired last season and has reached 20 goals seven times in the last nine years, averaging 27 over the last three.  His AAV is $4.25MM on a deal that looked to be a bargain from the day he signed it and he could push to land closer to $6MM on a new multi-year agreement.

On the back end, no fewer than four regulars can test the market in 2024, headlined by Noah Hanifin.  Aside from 2021-22, his offense has never really stood out but even so, he can log heavy minutes and will be in the prime of his career that year at 27.  He’s at $4.85MM now and a long-term extension should see him net more than teammate Mackenzie Weegar ($6.5MM) to once again become their top-paid defender.  If he’s not willing to re-sign and he’s put on the trade block, Conroy will have no shortage of interest.

The other three rearguards aren’t as significant of a concern.  Chris Tanev is an effective shutdown defender but his market might not be as strong next year with teams starting to shy away from those stay-at-home players which could move his cost below his current $4.5MM price tag.  Nikita Zadorov has been year-to-year for the most part for several seasons (2023-24 being the lone exception) so there isn’t a ton of risk having him in a walk year while Oliver Kylington will be returning after a year off; he’ll need time to show if his 2021-22 performance was an outlier or a sign of things to come.

Suffice it to say, with this many notable players eligible for extensions as of July 1st, expect Conroy to be reaching out to the agents of those players soon if he hasn’t already done so.

Add Top-Six Forward

This was a stated goal by Conroy in his press conference and with the team finishing in the bottom half of the league in goals scored, it makes sense.  While there is legitimate room for optimism that there should be some bounce-back performances under a new head coach (I don’t think anyone expects another 55-point effort from Jonathan Huberdeau after being over a point per game for four seasons in a row), simply running it back with this exact core would also be risky.

To that end, Conroy also indicated that he was likely to move a core piece out.  This also makes some sense considering his comments about the 2024 UFA class as there’s a good chance that not all of those players will want to re-sign this summer; if Conroy wants to avoid the risk of another Johnny Gaudreau situation, it could be those unwilling to extend now that move.  Speculatively, Andrew Mangiapane – signed for two more years at a $5.8MM cap charge – could be someone they look to move in a player-for-player swap.

Create Cap Space

It’s one thing for Conroy to want to add a top-six piece but it’s another to be able to afford to do it.  Frankly, they can’t afford one with over $82MM on the books already, per CapFriendly, with a few roster spots to fill.  With the Upper Limit projected to be at or close to $83.5MM next season, that’s not exactly a workable scenario.  That’s why it makes sense for their top-six addition up front to come at the expense of one of their 2024 UFA class as frankly, they can’t afford one otherwise.

That possible move notwithstanding, Conroy will need to free up a few million more in cap space.  One way to chip away at that would be to move backup goaltender Daniel Vladar who will begin his new two-year deal next season at a $2.2MM price tag.  Going to a cheaper second-stringer or promoting prospect Dustin Wolf would free up a little over $1MM, enough to fill at least one of those remaining roster spots.

Another spot could be to chip away at the back end which, with Kylington’s return, will cost them over $27.25MM, putting them near the top of the league in spending at that position.  Trying to move out someone like Zadorov for a cheaper option or for a future asset would certainly help free up some wiggle room.  Accordingly, as much as Conroy will be looking to add this summer, he almost certainly is going to need to subtract from it as well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Nashville Predators

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The offseason has arrived for all but the four teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup.  It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Nashville.

The Predators came into the season hoping to continue their streak of eight straight playoff appearances (including the Qualifying Round in the bubble) but changed direction at the deadline, becoming one of the major sellers.  However, the unexpected happened and Nashville went on a run down the stretch, nearly pulling off the improbable comeback.  While David Poile did some heavy lifting at the deadline to set his successor up, incoming GM Barry Trotz (who officially takes over July 1st) will still have some work to do this summer.

Decide Hynes’ Future

After the season, Trotz indicated that he’d take some time to evaluate John Hynes and then decide on the future of his head coach.  That was more than a month ago and there hasn’t been any sort of confirmation one way or the other.  Hynes does have one year left on his contract but teams are often hesitant to have their coach behind the bench in a ‘lame duck’ situation.  It’s possible that they work out another short-term extension (not unlike the two-year deal he’s currently on) to avoid that situation.

Technically, Trotz can take his time here deciding but the first dominoes are expected to fall soon on the NHL coaching market.  If there are candidates out there that he wants, they need to be prepared to strike before that target goes elsewhere.

At this point, the long wait without a decision might actually work in Hynes’ favor but his staying on would be a tepid vote of confidence at best.  His name will undoubtedly be on the hot seat if he remains with the team, especially if there’s no extension in place.  But for now, simply deciding on if Hynes will be back behind the bench is all the team needs to decide now.

Pick A Direction

The term rebuild doesn’t come up very often when it comes to Nashville as they’ve been one of the models of consistency over the better part of the past decade.  But their playoff appearances in recent years yielded quick exits and had they snuck in this season, there’s a good chance that they would have suffered the same fate.

With all due respect to Nashville’s current roster, if they were to try to load back up this summer, they’re probably still in that middle territory and not necessarily a true contender.  However, as we’ve seen, some lower seeds have done some damage in the playoffs this season and with Juuse Saros, they have the level of goaltending that can win some games on their own.  Accordingly, there’s a case to be made for a quick retool to try to get back into the playoffs in 2024.

On the other hand, there’s also a case to be made that they should be continuing in the direction that Poile took them leading up to the deadline.  Move out some more veterans, build up the prospect pool, and try to get into a better position to be more of a real contender in a couple of years.  Is that a better approach than hoping to make the playoffs and seeing what happens from there?  Trotz will need to decide which is the better way to go and structure his offseason activity based on that choice.

Re-Sign Glass

Cody Glass had a tough first season with Nashville in 2021-22, suiting up in just eight games for the Predators and spending the rest of the year in the minors.  Accordingly, the decision for him to take his qualifying offer made sense and the Preds certainly weren’t going to want to work out a long-term deal with someone they weren’t sure would even make their team.

One year later, the narrative is much different.  The 24-year-old played the full season in the NHL, picking up 35 points in 72 games along the way.  His playing time jumped up to a new career-high while he held his own at the faceoff dot as well, checking in at just under 50%.  On the power play, he proved to be quite effective, scoring six times, good for the second-most on the team behind Roman Josi.  A year ago, it was hardly a guarantee that Glass was going to be in Nashville much longer.  Now, on a team that doesn’t have a lot of younger options down the middle, he looks like a long-term piece of the puzzle.

Glass has three years of club control remaining, all of which will have him arbitration-eligible.  Trotz has two ways he can go here, do another short-term ‘prove-it’ type of contract that gives both sides more time to see if his level of production was repeatable, if there’s more in the tank, or if this might have been as good as it gets.  Such an approach would certainly be defensible from Nashville’s perspective.

On the other hand, if they believe that Glass is going to become a core player, then perhaps the time is right to try to strike a longer-term agreement.  That would push the AAV likely past the $4MM range, a price tag that might be high now but if he pans out, it would become a team-friendly one before too long.  From Glass’ perspective, locking in guaranteed long-term money might be desirable a year after being a regular with AHL Milwaukee.  There aren’t many key free agent decisions coming for the Preds but this is an intriguing one.

Look Into Barrie Trade

When Nashville traded Mattias Ekholm to Edmonton at the trade deadline, they had to take back Tyson Barrie’s contract as salary ballast as part of the return.  Now, the veteran, who turns 32 this summer, will head into the final year of his agreement next season.  With a short-term agreement and a right-shot defense market that isn’t all that deep, the Predators are well-positioned to net a quality return should they decide to make him available this summer.

Barrie is the type of player who could be shopped around even if Nashville decides to flip the switch again and try to add.  While he’s certainly a capable point producer, he’s not someone that they should be looking to lock up long-term while if they opt to rebuild, he’s a logical piece to shop as a rental.

This isn’t a situation where they have to move him in the coming weeks.  As a known commodity, Barrie would have some value closer to the trade deadline where there’s less left on his contract and the Preds might be more willing to retain salary to help facilitate a trade.  But once players like Damon Severson and Mathew Dumba come off the board, teams looking for help now on the right side of the back end will have to turn somewhere.  Barrie should be a fallback option for those teams, potentially creating a strong enough market to move him sooner than later.  Accordingly, expect Trotz to do his homework on that front to be ready to strike if the opportunity presents itself in late June or early July.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Pittsburgh Penguins

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The offseason has arrived for all but the four teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup.  It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Pittsburgh.

2022-23 certainly didn’t go as planned for the Penguins.  Even with a veteran-laden roster that was added to at the trade deadline, they ultimately came up short of the postseason for the first time since 2005-06.  As a result, some have wondered if the time is right for them to try to rebuild.  However, there have been no indications that this is the direction they intend to pursue so accordingly, their checklist will revolve around their expected goal of trying to get back to the postseason.

Round Out Front Office

The Penguins wasted little time shaking up their front office once the regular season came to an end as they dismissed both GM Ron Hextall and President Brian Burke.  In the interim, it appears as if managerial decisions for Pittsburgh are being done on a by-committee basis including head coach Mike Sullivan.  They can get away with that for now with the heavy lifting of the summer still a few weeks away but that will have to change soon.

Pittsburgh is believed to be well into the process of filling at least one of those vacancies as they’re believed to be into the second round of interviews for the GM role, a process that started with roughly a dozen candidates.  It’s unknown if some of those being considered for that position could also be options for the President spot as well or if the Penguins will look towards someone more on the business side.  One way or the other, they’ll need to have their new management team in place shortly.

Re-Sign Or Replace Jarry

There aren’t a lot of starting goaltenders that will be hitting the open market this summer but the Penguins have one of them in Tristan Jarry.  When he is on his game and healthy, the 28-year-old is a strong number one.  However, his on-ice performance has been hit or miss at times the last few seasons while staying in the lineup has proven to be a bit of a challenge as well.  Accordingly, his future with the organization appears to be in question.

Jarry is coming off of what has been a team-friendly deal relative to his role with a $3.5MM cap charge.  His hope in signing what amounted to a second bridge contract back in 2020 is that by now, he’d be established as a true starter, allowing him to push for close to double that AAV on the open market.  It’s fair to say that hasn’t happened but with there being few options in free agency, he’s still likely to add a couple million and a couple more years when he eventually puts pen to paper on a new deal.

Should the Penguins be the team to give him that agreement?  Casey DeSmith has one more year left on his contract and showed some good flashes while playing in 38 games, a new benchmark for him.  Internally, there isn’t anyone in their prospect pool that’s close to being NHL-ready so if they opt to make a change, they’re going to need to look at external options.

Who would those options be?  On the trade market, Anaheim’s John Gibson and Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck have been in trade speculation and whoever takes over as GM will likely inquire about those two.  Among unrestricted free agents, Semyon Varlamov has been a starter before and could be a short-term stopgap.  Joonas Korpisalo had a nice bounce-back year but there would be some risk associated with signing him with a track record that has had its fair share of ups and downs.  In terms of free agent netminders, Martin Jones is the only one that played more than Jarry did this season, a sign that there are mostly platoon options available on the open market.

Are any of those options more desirable than sticking with the goalie they know, even with his long history of injuries?  With Jarry being eligible to test free agency in six weeks, that’s a question that they’ll need to figure out an answer to fairly quickly.

Create Cap Flexibility

On the surface, the Penguins would appear to have plenty of salary cap room for next season.  With roughly $63.3MM on the books for next season per CapFriendly, that leaves them about $20MM to work with.  But it’s the spots they have to fill that will ultimately create a cap crunch.  As noted earlier, they need a starting goalie.  They need to re-sign or replace Jason Zucker, a veteran who had a strong bounce-back year, potting the second-most goals of his career with 27.  Brian Dumoulin, who has been a top-four defender for several years, also is set to hit the open market.  Filling those three spots will cost the bulk of that cap room, to say nothing of the three bottom-six forwards that will also reach unrestricted free agency as well.

Sure, there’s enough money for them to fill those spots and ice a full-sized roster on opening night.  But what does that accomplish?  This is a team that wasn’t able to make the playoffs so having a roster that largely mirrors what they had down the stretch shouldn’t be the goal.  If they want to make the postseason in 2023-24, they need to find a way to improve their roster.  Within their current cap structure, that could be challenging.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see whoever takes over as GM looks to see if he can find a taker for the final two years at $5MM per season on Mikael Granlund’s contract.  Alternatively, Bryan Rust, signed at a $5.125MM AAV through 2027-28 could be someone they test the market on.  Defensively, Jeff Petry (two years, $6.25MM) and Marcus Pettersson (two years, $4.025MM) could be in that category as well.  All of them are certainly still capable NHL players but if they’re going to try to shake up the core and bring some different impact players in, that will have to involve moving some core pieces out as well.

Guentzel Extension Talks

One player that could potentially be added to the list above is Jake Guentzel.  He is signed at a team-friendly $6MM AAV through the end of next season which makes him eligible to sign a contract extension on July 1st.  Considering that the 28-year-old has averaged better than a point per game over the past five seasons (333 points in 331 games) and surpassed the 35-goal mark in three of those, it’s fair to suggest that their preference this summer will be to try to sign him to a new deal.  If those discussions don’t go well, then it’s possible (though not probable) that he could become part of that core shakeup.

What might an extension cost?  His camp will likely look to the eight-year, $68MM deal ($8.5MM AAV) that Filip Forsberg signed in Nashville to avoid free agency as the starting point of negotiations.  With Forsberg only having one season with more production than Guentzel in recent years, it’s safe to say they’ll be aiming higher; it wouldn’t be surprising to see his camp push for a cap hit starting with a nine on a max-term agreement.  Pittsburgh might try to argue that his cap charge shouldn’t surpass Sidney Crosby’s $8.7MM but with the captain being signed only one year longer than Guentzel’s current contract, that argument isn’t likely to hold water.

Guentzel has been a key part of Pittsburgh’s top line for several seasons now but he’s about to get a lot more expensive.  If they can get that deal done now, they can avoid any possible trade speculation during the season while also gaining some clarity on what their longer-term cap picture could look like.  Accordingly, whoever the next GM will be, Guentzel’s file should be quite high on their to-do list.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Buffalo Sabres

at CDT | by 1 Comment

The offseason has arrived for all but the four teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup.  It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Buffalo.

It has been quite a while since the Sabres made it to the playoffs (the last time they did was in 2011) but optimism is justifiably on the increase in Buffalo.  Several youngsters are starting to grab hold of key spots in the lineup which sparked an impressive second-half run that kept them close to the postseason until the very end.  Accordingly, a lot of their to-do list this offseason revolves around adding to and extending their core, not flipping players for prospects and draft picks.  The time for rebuilding is pretty much over.

Look At Adding A Veteran Starter

Between Devon Levi and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, the Sabres have a pair of young promising prospects who could form a quality tandem before too long.  While it’s quite possible that those two could be the duo next season, that would carry some risk as the pair have 52 career NHL starts combined.  If this was another rebuilding year, perhaps playing both of them would carry some merit but it’s fair to suggest that there will be an expectation of them playing past the 82-game mark next season.

Accordingly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see GM Kevyn Adams look at what’s out there in terms of trade or free agent options.  Anaheim’s John Gibson has been in trade speculation for a while and although Buffalo might not like the four years remaining on his contract, a change of scenery could get him back to being an above-average goaltender.  That would certainly give them a boost in the short term although it’d create a scenario where one of Luukkonen or Levi would likely need to be moved at some point if not as a part of that swap.

If Winnipeg winds up starting a rebuild and moving Connor Hellebuyck, he’d be particularly intriguing, even as a one-year rental.  He’d give the Sabres a significant boost and if the two youngsters weren’t in the swap, they could still try them as a cost-controllable tandem as soon as 2024-25.

In free agency, it’d be surprising to see them take a run at someone like Tristan Jarry.  However, veteran Semyon Varlamov would be a short-term upgrade, allowing Levi to spend some time with AHL Rochester while giving them an upgrade on what they got from veterans Craig Anderson (now retired) and Eric Comrie (still signed for one more year).

Buffalo is in decent shape here in the sense that they don’t necessarily have to make a move.  If they think Levi is ready to be a full-time NHL regular, there could be some upside to going with their top prospects although the risk is certainly higher as well.  But if they can bring in an upgrade, even if it’s just another shorter-term stopgap, it could certainly give them a lift for next season.

Extension Talks

The Sabres will have two prominent defensemen entering the final year of their respective deals and will thus be eligible for contract extensions as soon as July 1st.  Both players are in vastly different situations.

Rasmus Dahlin didn’t quite live up to the hype of being a franchise defenseman over his first three seasons.  There were flashes of dominance but he certainly had more than his fair share of struggles as well.  However, he showed some improvement once Don Granato took over down the stretch in 2020-21, doing well enough for the two sides to agree on a three-year bridge deal that summer.

Since then, Dahlin has certainly become Buffalo’s franchise blueliner.  He has been one of the top two-way rearguards in the league over the last couple of seasons and at 23, it’s fair to say that there is still room for improvement.  His qualifying offer next summer is $7.2MM but that’s not really relevant as there’s a very good chance that Dahlin will become the next NHL blueliner making $10MM or more on a long-term deal.

Then there’s Owen Power.  Like Dahlin, he was a first-overall selection but he’s still at just the beginning of his career having played his first full NHL campaign just this season.  However, by burning the first year with an eight-game appearance in 2021-22, he’s not far away from a new deal.  Have the Sabres seen enough to do a long-term contract now?  That’s far from a guarantee, nor is it that his camp would be willing to sign a long-term deal just 87 games into his NHL career.  Accordingly, while Adams will likely at least explore what the framework of an agreement might look like, this one might not get done this summer.

Determine Olofsson’s Future

Victor Olofsson has been a productive winger for Buffalo, notching at least 20 goals in three of the last four seasons.  However, for the bulk of those four campaigns, it would be fair to say that he has seemingly been on thin ice with the team.  He only received a bridge deal after his entry-level contract and then last year, basically signed a second one, one that gave him a nice raise to $4.75MM but only locked him up for one extra year of team control, 2023-24.

Even with setting a new benchmark for goals this season with 28, Olofsson found himself a healthy scratch at times while being on the fourth line at others, hardly the ideal spot for a player like him.

With back-to-back short-term contracts, the team has punted making a decision on Olofsson’s long-term future in Buffalo but it’s getting to be time to make that decision.  It’s not that they can’t go into next season with him in his walk year but more that they shouldn’t.  With more than 260 career games under his belt, the Sabres know what he can and can’t bring to the table.

Is what he can do worth keeping around?  If so, then they can start to work on an extension.  If not, the time might be right to try to move him before free agency before teams set their opening rosters.  With his cap hit, it would be a swap of players needing a change of scenery, perhaps the newcomer might be a better fit for the roster if they decide to move on from Olofsson.

Add An Impact Defenseman

Even with Dahlin and Power on the roster plus Mattias Samuelsson whose seven-year deal kicks in next season, there’s a definite need to upgrade the back end.  In particular, the right side of the blueline as those three are all left-shot blueliners, leaving Henri Jokiharju as the top option among right-shot rearguards.

Adding one more capable right-shot defender to the mix would nicely round out a back end that still has room for internal improvement as well.  Those players aren’t the easiest to trade for but with the Sabres having ample cap room in a summer when few teams can say that, that will give them an option to try to take advantage of another team’s cap challenges to try to fill that spot.

Alternatively, there are a couple of free agent options that would fit the bill as well in Damon Severson and Mathew Dumba.  Both players are capable of logging 20 or more minutes a night and have shown an ability to produce offensively in the past though both are coming off quieter-than-expected years.  Both are 28 so they will likely command a long-term deal but at the moment, Samuelsson is Buffalo’s only defenseman signed beyond 2023-24; some stability at that position probably wouldn’t hurt.

There was a significant gap between the defenseman that was fourth in ATOI this season (Jokiharju, 21:01) and fifth (Kale Clague, 15:06).  Balancing things out, especially with Samuelsson and Jokiharju having a recent history of injuries, should be high on the priority list, especially with no one else in their system that’s ready to make the jump and play a key role on an NHL roster in the near future.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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