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Offseason Checklist 2023

Offseason Checklist: Vegas Golden Knights

at CDT | by 6 Comments

The offseason is now fully underway after Vegas took home the Stanley Cup which means that it’s time to examine what each team will need to accomplish over the coming months.  We wrap up our series with a look at what the Golden Knights have left to do.

When team owner Bill Foley talked about winning the Stanley Cup in six years after their expansion team started, the idea seemed far-fetched.  But in the end, that’s exactly how it played out as they took out Winnipeg, Edmonton, Dallas, and Florida to take home the title.  GM Kelly McCrimmon is now tasked with trying to keep as much of his Cup-winning core intact as possible.  He has already made some moves that were on the original version of this checklist but here’s what’s left for them to work on.

Goalie Moves

It’s interesting that Adin Hill’s reported two-year extension that was reportedly agreed to over the weekend has yet to be registered with the league compared to someone like Ivan Barbashev, whose deal was agreed to and registered on Wednesday.  Speculatively, this could be related to tagging space since LTIR players (like Robin Lehner) count against that limit.  Because we’re not in the new league year yet, the tagging rate is 10% above the $82.5MM cap.  In the offseason, you can go 10% above the new cap level, or $83.5MM while offseason LTIR is also an option if needed.

Not registering the deal now gives them some extra flexibility in the short term as they have $1.1MM less in spending allowance before Saturday to fit Hill’s contract into.  This likely played a role in Barbashev’s deal getting announced only after they moved Reilly Smith.  This isn’t anything to be concerned about if you’re a Vegas fan as this is just a bit of CBA minutia but they will have to get Hill’s contract finalized in the coming days.

Speaking of goalies, they need to make a determination about Lehner’s future.  With Hill’s pending new contract, it appears that they don’t think Lehner will be able to return next season.  If that happens, they can put him on LTIR as they did this past season.  But it’s also possible that they want to clear that contract off the books as they did with Shea Weber’s deal at the trade deadline.  Deciding if it’s worth parting with an asset to free up the contract slot will be a small item on McCrimmon’s list.

They will also need to decide if they want to carry a veteran third-stringer behind a tandem of Hill and Logan Thompson which is still relatively inexperienced all things considered.  They’ve had one in place the last two years with Laurent Brossoit and Michael Hutchinson but among the three other netminders signed for next season, none have any NHL experience while pending RFA Jiri Patera has just two appearances.  This is another small item on the list but with free agency almost here, it’s a decision that will need to be made quickly.

Work On Marchessault Extension

It’s safe to say that Jonathan Marchessault has worked out well as their expansion pick from Florida back in 2017.  The 32-year-old is their franchise leader in goals, assists, and points and is coming off a playoff performance that saw him lead the league in goals with 13, helping him take home his first Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP.  That’s certainly a nice ending to his campaign and will give him some extra leverage as he becomes eligible to sign a contract extension as of Saturday.

Marchessault signed a six-year, $30MM deal just months into his tenure with Vegas and it has held up well through the first five seasons.  However, it’s safe to say that it’s going to take a higher AAV for him to put pen to paper on an extension, especially this far out from his free agent summer.  Yes, the Upper Limit of the cap is expected to jump but he turns 33 in December and wingers don’t typically show offensive improvement at that time.

Marchessault has reached the 30-goal and 60-point mark just once in the last five years and as he gets older, he should move more into a middle-six role.  Is that a lineup spot that they should be committing a pricey long-term contract to?  On the other hand, he’s one of the original ‘misfits’ and while the Golden Knights have made some moves that could be described as callous along the way, it’s possible that they could allow sentimentality to come into play with Marchessault.  At this point, an AAV of around $6MM on a medium-term extension might be needed.  Expect discussions on a new deal to happen at some point this summer.

Try To Create More Cap Space

At the moment, Vegas has around $7.6MM in cap room for next season, per CapFriendly.  That amount includes them using Lehner’s full LTIR space and does not count Hill’s expected contract, one that is expected to carry an AAV of around $4.9MM.  Basically, they’re going to have around $2.7MM at their disposal and that’s with a couple of forward spots to try to fill.  It’s a manageable situation but is one that would leave them in a spot where they’d have limited flexibility for any in-season activity.  While they’re more than used to being in that situation, it’s still one that they might want to avoid.

To do that, they’re probably going to look at dealing from their defensive depth.  Veteran Alec Martinez has a $5.25MM AAV and one year remaining on his deal.  The 35-year-old is still a serviceable piece but is better served as being more of a depth defender at this stage of his career.  In this market, clearing the full contract would be difficult but even if they’re able to move him with some retention, it’d help to free up some wiggle room.

Failing that, they can look to their depth players.  Ben Hutton has an AAV that’s just $25K above the league minimum that could be appealing to a team looking for cheap depth.  Meanwhile, prospect Brayden Pachal is now waiver-eligible and if the Golden Knights envision him not breaking camp with them, trying to move him now for a waiver-exempt asset would open up a bit more flexibility.  Doing something like this isn’t necessarily a must but a bit more wiggle room on the cap wouldn’t hurt.

Decide Howden’s Future

Vegas has a couple of RFA forwards to re-sign, center Brett Howden and winger Pavel Dorofeyev.  Dorofeyev’s contract should be somewhat straightforward as the youngster only has 20 NHL games under his belt so he’ll be signing for close to the league minimum of $775K.  But Howden’s will be a little trickier to navigate.

The 25-year-old is owed a $1.5MM qualifying offer by tomorrow’s 4 PM CT deadline.  However, the offer also carries salary arbitration eligibility which is something they might want to avoid.  Howden’s coming off a quiet year offensively with just 13 points in 54 games but with 279 career regular season appearances under his belt, he has enough of a track record to land a raise in a hearing.  Obviously, Vegas can’t afford to give him too much of one.

Do they manage to get something done in the next 24 hours that takes away the arbitration risk?  If not, are they comfortable tendering the qualifier?  Howden is coming off a nice playoff run and is someone they will want to keep around but there comes a point where he’s going to cost too much for the role he fills.  He’s not all that far from that spot so getting something done soon would certainly be desirable.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Florida Panthers

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The offseason is now fully underway after Vegas took home the Stanley Cup which means that it’s time to examine what each team will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Florida.

What an interesting year it was for the Panthers.  After winning the Presidents’ Trophy, the team moved two core pieces in Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar to Calgary for Matthew Tkachuk, a swap that many felt would see them take a small step back to take a bigger step forward a little later on.  It played out that way early as they were out of the playoffs for long portions of the season.  However, they got into the final Wild Card spot and beat Boston, Toronto, and Carolina to come out of the East.  Now, GM Bill Zito has more cap flexibility than he had last summer to try to add to his roster but there are some question marks on how much he’ll be able to use which factors into in their checklist below.

Add Defensive Help

When fully healthy, Florida’s defense corps wasn’t the deepest to begin with.  Now, they’re set to possibly lose Radko Gudas and Marc Staal to free agency while Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour, their top two blueliners, played through serious injuries in the playoffs and might not be ready to start next season.  They already could have used a top-four blueliner.  Now, it’s more or less a necessity.

It’s also worth noting that the blueliner with the longest contract on their current roster is Ekblad.  His deal has just two years remaining.  Other than Josh Mahura, a depth defender, all of their current blueliners will be UFA-eligible when their existing contracts expire.  That’s a lot of potential turnover in a short period of time.

With that in mind, while some have wondered if Zito might be interested in short-term options due to the injuries, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to at least look to the higher end of the free agent market where the top options will get longer-term contracts.  Yes, those deals tend to be too long and a little too expensive but this is a franchise that doesn’t exactly have a lot of tradeable assets right now after going all-in in 2021-22.  A move like that would give them a short-term lift and ensure they’ll have at least one capable veteran in the fold for the long haul.

As things stand, Florida has roughly $10MM in cap room at their disposal, per CapFriendly.  They have to sign at least two blueliners (probably three) and a couple of forwards with that money but if the depth options are closer to the minimum, there’s enough room for an impact addition.  Yes, there could be LTIR money available in the short term but that money can’t really be spent externally as the Panthers would have to be cap-compliant once the injured players are ready to return.  Instead, any ‘savings’ there would go toward carrying a full roster at the start of the season.

Extension Talks

July 1st is the day that players entering the final year of their respective contracts are eligible to sign contract extensions.  Florida has several key regulars in that situation.  On the back end, Montour and Gustav Forsling are both set to hit the final year of their very team-friendly deals.  Up front, Sam Reinhart and Anthony Duclair are in the same spot.

Montour’s case is going to be a particularly fascinating one to follow.  For years, he had shown promise at times but hadn’t been able to consistently produce and as a result, he remained in more of a limited role.  This past season, that all changed.  Montour’s production exploded, going from a decent 37 points a year ago to a whopping 73.  He barely cracked the top 40 for scoring by a defenseman in 2021-22 and was fifth in 2022-23.  He’s on a bargain contract at $3.5MM and if they want to extend him now, it might take twice as much if not more to lock up the 29-year-old.  The shoulder injury could give Zito some pause but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them try to get something done this summer.

As for Forsling, he has certainly been one of the best waiver claims in recent memory, going from a Carolina castaway to a 23-minute per-game defender.  The 27-year-old had a breakout year in 2021-22 and put up very similar numbers this past season, showing that it wasn’t just a fluke.  He is now logging heavy minutes shorthanded, making him an all-around defender.  With his age and recent production, he, too, could more than double his current AAV of just under $2.7MM.

Up front, Reinhart’s second bridge contract has worked out well for both sides.  He has taken his production to a new level in Florida, even after taking a bit of a step back this season.  The 27-year-old has also shown that he can play down the middle which makes him much more valuable around the league with top-six centers being difficult to come by.  His current AAV is $6.5MM and it would likely take at least a couple million more than that (putting him a little below Matthew Tkachuk on the salary scale) to get him to commit to an early extension.

Then there’s Duclair.  The 27-year-old missed most of this past season as he worked his way back from a torn Achilles’ tendon and, unsurprisingly, he was a bit quiet when he returned before putting together a decent playoff showing with 11 points in 20 games.  He’s only a year removed from a breakout 31-goal campaign which should factor into negotiations as well.  Duclair intends to represent himself again in those discussions and with the long layoff, it’s reasonable to think they might agree to defer talks until later in the season to see how he fares after a full summer of recovery.

Not all of these players are going to sign extensions over the summer but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Zito get one or two of these locked up over the coming months.

Get Help For The Penalty Kill

The Panthers were one of the top teams at five-on-five this past season which is typically a good sign of how strong a team is.  However, the fact that they barely picked up the final Wild Card spot is in large part due to the fact that their penalty kill struggled considerably with a success rate of just under 76%, a few points below the league average.  In the playoffs, that number dipped even further to just 70.4%.  That’s an area that could certainly stand to be improved.

If Florida goes and gets an impact defenseman, that should help but adding some defensive acumen to their final couple of forwards would also help.  Eric Staal (a pending UFA) logged heavy minutes on the penalty kill this past season, a role he hadn’t typically played in his prime.  Eetu Luostarinen isn’t a premier defensive forward either; those two led all Florida forwards in shorthanded ATOI.  Filling out the depth chart with some shutdown options might take away a bit offensively but if it helps them kill enough penalties to balance out, it’ll be worth doing.

Depth Decisions

Alex Lyon more than served his purpose as a capable third-string goaltender who stepped in when Spencer Knight departed for the Player Assistance Program and even took over as the starter with Sergei Bobrovsky struggling at the time.  He may have done well enough to get a shot as a backup somewhere so this is a spot that will need to be filled.  A veteran depth goalie isn’t usually an important offseason add but with Bobrovsky’s inconsistency and Knight’s relative inexperience, determining and landing the top option on that market takes a higher level of importance.

Meanwhile, a decision needs to be made soon on the fate of center Colin White.  The 26-year-old had an okay year in a very limited role but still provided some value on a contract that was just $100K above the league minimum after being bought out by Ottawa.  Still not old enough to reach unrestricted free agency, Florida could tender him a qualifying offer to keep his rights.  However, doing so would give him arbitration eligibility and bring his previous production (including a 41-point year in 2018-19) into the picture.  That’s not ideal for the Panthers so they need to decide if they want to try to re-sign him before Friday’s tender deadline or if they want to cut bait and perhaps add a more defensive-oriented depth player into the mix.

These are two roles that can be filled quickly in free agency within the first couple of hours so Zito will need to have his plan in place to make sure he lands his targets (or gets White on another bargain contract).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Dallas Stars

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The offseason is now fully underway after Vegas took home the Stanley Cup which means that it’s time to examine what each team will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Dallas.

2022-23 was a season of considerable improvement for the Stars.  They picked up an extra ten points during the regular season, moving them from a Wild Card seed to having home ice in the first round.  In the postseason, they won a pair of series and gave the Golden Knights a decent challenge in the Western Conference Final.  As a result, GM Jim Nill doesn’t have a particularly long list of things to try to accomplish this summer but here are some items on their to-do list over the coming weeks.

Add Defensive Help

This is the big one for Dallas this summer.  With Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell in the fold, the Stars have quality blueliners in the fold.  However, things start to unravel from there.  Ryan Suter shouldn’t be logging heavy minutes at this stage of his career but played more than 20 a night in the regular season; that number jumped to more than 23 in the playoffs.  The bigger workload was problematic for him but the options behind him on the depth chart weren’t any better.

Colin Miller was brought in as a reclamation piece last summer and while he did well in a limited role, he’s not a top-four option.  Neither is the rugged Jani Hakanpaa.  Nill paid a high price to acquire Nils Lundkvist from the Rangers but he, too, was only able to hold down a limited role during the regular season but was out of the lineup in the playoffs.  Thomas Harley has shown some promise but he’s not ready for top-four duty either while Joel Hanley is more of a seventh defender than an every-game one.

All but Hanley are signed for next season but while this group was good enough to have some success, the playoffs showed that another top-four option is needed for them to take that next step.  Fitting one in cap-wise could be a challenge as they have around $7MM to work with, per CapFriendly, and several forward spots to try to fill.  It might take some creativity to fill this opening as a result but one more impact defender would put the Stars in much better shape for next season.

Re-Sign Or Replace Domi

Dallas wasn’t overly active at the trade deadline but they did make a late move to add Max Domi as a rental from Chicago.  There weren’t immediate dividends as he managed just seven points in 20 games down the stretch but was more productive in the playoffs, picking up 13 points in 19 contests.  The lineup was deeper with Domi in there and finding a way to keep him would extend that boost over a full season.

Of course, this is again easier said than done, especially if they opt to prioritize adding on the back end.  On top of that, Domi is set to benefit from what is a very thin free agent center market.  Taking out Boston’s two veterans that are likely to either re-sign or retire, Domi is one of the top few middlemen available.  In a position that is always in short supply and high demand, the 28-year-old is well-positioned to land a raise on the $3MM he made this past season.  Perhaps more importantly, Domi should finally be able to land some long-desired stability; he hasn’t signed a contract longer than two seasons since his entry-level deal.

It will take more than half of Dallas’ existing cap space to get something done.  But if they can’t land a defenseman and shore up a weakness, shoring up a strong spot is the next best thing.  Keeping Domi around to deepen the attack – or signing someone else to take that spot – is certainly a workable Plan B.

Bridge Deal For Dellandrea

Dallas only has one regular player set to reach restricted free agency this summer, forward Ty Dellandrea.  The 22-year-old played his first full NHL campaign in 2022-23 and acquitted himself well, picking up 28 points in 82 games while getting into 15 of their playoff contests where he notched three goals.  Certainly not a bad first taste of full-time action for the 2018 first-round pick.

However, with his games this past season comprising the bulk of his experience thus far, Dellandrea certainly isn’t in a position to command a long-term contract.  Nor should the Stars be inclined to hand him one.  As a result, he’s a lock to sign a short-term bridge deal.

Dellandrea isn’t eligible for salary arbitration and it’s post-entry-level players that often take time to sign but he shouldn’t be in that situation.  Instead, a two-year deal around $1.5MM should be workable for both sides.  Getting that deal done sooner than later would also be beneficial, allowing Nill to know exactly what he’ll have to work with this summer rather than working off a range estimate.  It’s not a top priority necessarily but it’d help if they could get this done over the next week or so.

Rebuild Forward Depth

On top of Domi, Dallas has three more forwards heading for unrestricted free agency – wingers Evgenii Dadonov and Joel Kiviranta plus center Luke Glendening.  If those players aren’t re-signed, they’re going to have to be replaced which is also going to cut into that $7MM in cap flexibility.

If the Stars want to fill internally, they could look to wingers Mavrik Bourque and Logan Stankoven.  Bourque, a 2020 first-round pick, was actually up with Dallas late in the playoffs although he didn’t see any game action.  The 21-year-old had 47 points in 70 games with AHL Texas and could hold down a bottom-six spot next season.  As for Stankoven, a 2021 second-rounder, he averaged more than two points per game during the regular season with WHL Kamloops (and somehow bested that in the playoffs).  If he’s ready to make the jump like Wyatt Johnston was this past season, he could give the offense a boost and perhaps fill the role Domi held.  Most importantly, Bourque and Stankoven have cap hits under $900K; their presence on the opening roster would give Nill a bit more wiggle room to work with.

While Glendening doesn’t provide much offensively, he can kill penalties and win faceoffs at a well above-average rate so Dallas will need to find a player to fill that role while Kiviranta provided some physicality from the fourth line.  These are spots that can be filled in free agency but they’ll be shopping at the bargain bin like many other teams.  With that many veterans possibly leaving on the open market, Nill will be rebuilding the bottom end of his forward group over the next few weeks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Carolina Hurricanes

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The offseason is now fully underway after Vegas took home the Stanley Cup which means that it’s time to examine what each team will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Carolina.

No one would have faulted the Carolina Hurricanes for a second-round exit after losing Andrei Svechnikov, Max Pacioretty, and Teuvo Teravainen to injuries. Instead, some miracle performances from depth players vaulted them into the Eastern Conference Final – before promptly getting swept by the Florida Panthers. While they were up against a Vezina-caliber netminder in Sergei Bobrovsky playing some of the best hockey in his life, the Hurricanes still scored just six goals in four Conference Final games, igniting an all-too-familiar refrain among their recent playoff exits. General manager Don Waddell enters the offseason with a crystal-clear priority: improve the team’s scoring ability. They have the cap space to do so.

Sign A Second-Line Center

Let’s make one thing clear – this is not a knock on Jesperi Kotkaniemi.

He produced the way a player getting paid his $4.82MM cap hit should. The 22-year-old Finn still has some room to grow and notched a career-high 18 goals and 43 points while putting together some solid defensive hockey. He looked overmatched at times during the postseason, though, and perhaps he’s best slotted in the Hurricanes lineup as a high-end third-line center, allowing them to bump competent veteran Jordan Staal down to fourth-line minutes. With a solid top-four wing core of Svechinkov, Teravainen, Martin Necas, and Seth Jarvis, the most glaring hole in terms of offense on the team’s top two lines is at center.

There are a handful of solid options in free agency that provide a bit more offensive ceiling, especially if they’re playing with Necas. Carolina has $24MM in cap space this offseason, per CapFriendly, a number that should be around $15-18MM after figuring out their goalie situation (more on that later). Throw in another $10MM to replace (or re-sign) players like Staal and Jesper Fast, and the team should be able to throw around at least $5MM per season to a second-line center.

Could Ryan O’Reilly provide a veteran presence and added offensive punch with a speedy Necas? What about the minute-munching J.T. Compher if he doesn’t reach an extension with the Colorado Avalanche? Max Domi could be a solid option, too, although he’s less of a sure thing given his offensive inconsistencies throughout his career.

Trade Or Extend Pesce

The Hurricanes have a pair of key unrestricted free agents up in front in 2024 in Teravainen and Sebastian Aho, but there’s not much concern about the team’s ability to get them locked into extensions. On defense, though, their second pairing of Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce are both destined for UFA status a year from now, and rumors have been churning about Carolina’s ability to get Pesce locked down to a long-term deal.

If they get through the next few weeks without much confidence in getting Pesce extended, he’ll likely be moved. There’s been a fair bit of trade chatter already, but with former teammate Noah Hanifin likely also on the trade block, Pesce’s value will likely only rise as teams look for an elite right-shot shutdown defender on the open market. The 28-year-old averaged 22 minutes a game this season against tough competition and still managed to produce well on the scoresheet, too, recording 30 points in all 82 games.

He would net Carolina a first-round pick at minimum, adding to a prospect pool that’s already much stronger than it should be, thanks to a large amount of high-value picks in recent years from Waddell. Trading him would also free up some more cap space to add on offense while still permitting them to sign a decent replacement for Pesce on the open market.

That’s not to say Carolina shouldn’t make any effort to get a deal done here – he’s a spectacular player who’s been a large part of their success in recent seasons. If there just isn’t anything to be had there, though, it’s not the end of the world.

Re-Sign Netminders

Collectively, Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta didn’t have the best regular seasons. Andersen’s save percentage dipped to .903 after recording a .922 mark in 2021-22, while Raanta’s decline was much less exaggerated (.912 in 2021-22, .910 in 2022-23).

Andersen put all that behind him in the playoffs, though, recording a .927 save percentage in nine starts, outmatched only by Bobrovsky in the Eastern Conference. The 33-year-old should be a top priority for the Hurricanes to be back, even with young Pyotr Kochetkov waiting in the wings and vying for a full-time NHL spot.

Both he and Raanta are quite injury-prone, and it’s something that’s handcuffed the team at times. Luckily for them, Kochetkov has come in handy – and it’s why the three-goalie model should be used for another season. Re-signing both Andersen and Raanta gives Carolina perhaps the best goaltending safety net in the league, ensuring they’ll have a quality option with NHL experience ready to go, especially if both Andersen and Raanta are unavailable at times heading into the postseason.

Getting the two netminders locked up to short-term deals shouldn’t cost more than a total of around $8MM, something the Hurricanes can easily accommodate with their current cap structure.

Depth Decisions

The Hurricanes have many expiring contracts at the bottom of their lineup – namely Fast and Staal, who both played key roles for the team down the stretch and in the playoffs. Derek Stepan, Mackenzie MacEachern, and Paul Stastny all saw ice too, and Carolina will need to decide which veterans to re-sign and which to cut ties with.

Getting some younger blood in the lineup via free agency in exchange for Stepan and Stastny is likely a wise choice, but Fast and Staal have proven themselves invaluable in depth roles. Without a cap crunch to deal with, the team can (and should) get them signed to mid-length deals, although maybe just two or three years for the 34-year-old Staal.

There’s also the matter of whether or not to qualify Jesse Puljujarvi, their only restricted free agent forward at the NHL level. The 25-year-old can, unfortunately, be declared a bust at this point, registering just three points in 24 combined regular-season and playoff games after a trade from the Edmonton Oilers. He’s due a qualifying offer of $3MM, well above his market value, considering his production last season. Cutting ties is the likely route here.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Seattle Kraken

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The offseason is now fully underway after Vegas took home the Stanley Cup which means that it’s time to examine what each team will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Seattle.

2022-23 was a storybook campaign for the fresh-off-expansion Seattle Kraken. The team set the record for improvement in the standings from year one to year two of an expansion franchise, at least since the Original Six era. Their 100 points were only good enough for a Wild Card spot in a tight Pacific Division race, though it didn’t matter – they knocked off the defending Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche in a seven-game First Round battle. After nearly vindicating the Dallas Stars, losing 2-1 in Game 7 of the Second Round, Kraken general manager Ron Francis needs to push the right buttons to keep the team’s momentum in a decidedly forward direction.

Solidify The Crease

Seattle got vintage Philipp Grubauer in the postseason, although his .903 save percentage and 2.99 goals-against average were both still the worst marks of his four playoff runs as his team’s full-time starter. Inconsistency and truthfully horrid play between the pipes at times has been the franchise’s largest weakness over the past 24 months, although the team’s depth has developed to a point where it can largely mask that shortcoming. In 94 games as a Kraken, Grubauer’s regular-season record is much less kind – a .891 save percentage and 3.04 goals-against average are simply not good enough for a team to contend for a championship. That’s nearly 35 more goals conceded than an average netminder given the same workload. Pending UFA Martin Jones posted a sparkling 27-13-3 record when in net for Seattle this season but had just a .886 save percentage, getting plenty of goal support.

The team has some flexibility with Jones surely headed to the open market, but Grubauer is locked in at a $5.9MM cap hit through 2026-27. Moving on from him likely isn’t realistic this summer – he’s still shown flashes of solid play and is a well-liked teammate in the room. If they were to trade him, though, the time is now after a temporary boost in stock from his playoff performance.

Seattle isn’t too pressed for cap space, although much of their projected $20MM of availability (CapFriendly) will go to a new deal for defenseman Vince Dunn. Could the team go internal for Grubauer’s partner, possibly Joey Daccord? They’ll need to re-sign him, as the 26-year-old is a pending Group VI UFA, but he rode a .926 save percentage in 26 playoff games for the AHL’s Coachella Valley Firebirds in their first season before bowing out in the final. The team is sure to move out Chris Driedger and his $3.5MM cap hit, as the 29-year-old didn’t play in the NHL this season after being sidelined due to injury to start the season and then slipping to the AHL behind Jones, Grubauer, and later Daccord. Among goalie options on the open market, there are certainly a few with more experience than Daccord that could be had for Driedger’s money (or less).

Long-Term Deal For Dunn

Seattle’s success came by committee this season – especially among their offense, where all of their top 12 forwards contributed between 0.4 and 0.9 points per game. The 26-year-old Dunn (mentioned earlier) was absolutely a standout among his defensive counterparts, though, recording team-highs in assists (50), time on ice (23:40), and plus-minus (+28). He notched a career-high 64 points on the whole, spectacular value for just a $4MM cap hit.

A restricted free agent with arbitration rights, he’s due a sharp raise this offseason – one Seattle absolutely has the cap room to accommodate. Advanced metrics have hinted at a Dunn breakout for many years, although maybe not one of this scale.

He’s of the perfect age to sign a longer-term deal. While the maximum eight years may be a little much, given he’d be 34 when the contract expires, it wouldn’t last too far into his decline (if at all). He may not be a perennial elite defender (and shouldn’t get paid like one), but he’s shown he can be a bonafide top-pairing player.

Start Extension Talks With Beniers

The Kraken don’t have much in the way of true star power, but they’re only a season or two away from having one. 20-year-old Matthew Beniers is a surefire bet to take home the Calder Trophy next week, and he’s grown into the team’s de facto number-one center after just 90 career games. He struggled in the faceoff circle heavily this year, but other than that, he scored 24 goals and 57 points in 80 games and took just one minor penalty all season.

That being said, he’s entering the final season of his entry-level deal. The Kraken would be wise to negotiate an extension with him as soon as possible, trying their best to keep Beniers’ cap hit down on a long-term agreement – if Beniers is willing to discuss one.

The 6-foot-2 Massachusetts product excelled defensively in his rookie year, showing he’s on track to become the two-way force the Kraken thought they were getting when they selected him second overall in 2021. This much offense so soon in his development bodes well for him to become one of the more complete centers in the NHL in a few years’ time – the type of player they’d need to pay an extreme premium for at the end of a bridge deal.

Add On Defense

The Kraken are more than apt on offense, with youngsters like Shane Wright and Tye Kartye already on the outside looking in when it comes to the team’s opening night depth chart. The team will have some cap space to utilize after signing Dunn to an extension and rectifying their goalie situation, though, and they’ll be able to use it to pursue a right-shot defender on the open market to complete their top four.

Justin Schultz is a spectacular power-play quarterback but best suited for third-pairing usage at even strength. With Dunn, Adam Larsson, and Jamie Oleksiak comprising the trio of the most oft-used Kraken defenders, the team’s obvious hole is a more skilled partner for the hulking Oleksiak.

William Borgen has turned into a full-time NHLer, but for a team on the upswing and looking at Stanley Cup contention in a few years, he’s not the best fit in a top four. Could they pursue a Matt Dumba, Radko Gudas, or Scott Mayfield type to fill out their only depth weakness? A potential Oleksiak-Gudas pairing would be more than enough for Pacific Division rivals to approach the offensive zone with fear.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Edmonton Oilers

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The offseason is now fully underway after Vegas took home the Stanley Cup which means that it’s time to examine what each team will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Edmonton.

As expected, the Oilers featured a high-powered offense this past season but goaltending concerns once again crept up at an inopportune time which played a role in their exit at the hands of the Golden Knights in the second round.  GM Ken Holland has two years left with both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl under contract which could represent the remaining length of their competitive window.  However, while they would certainly love to add, their salary cap situation will see them needing to take away from their roster; this is a key element of their checklist this summer as a result.

Yamamoto Decision

We took a closer look at Yamamoto’s specific situation over the weekend which basically amounts to Edmonton having some less-than-desirable options when it comes to their 2017 first-round pick.

The 24-year-old made a big impact early in his career, picking up 26 points in 27 games after being a late-season recall in 2019-20 before stalling out briefly.  Then, it looked as if he was back on track following a 20-goal campaign in 2021-22, earning himself a two-year, $6.2MM contract, but again, he stalled out this past season.  At the moment, the Oilers have around $5MM to spend, per CapFriendly, with their pending restricted free agents set to cost considerably more than that.  Someone has to go.

Yamamoto is young enough that his buyout would only cost one-third instead of the standard two-thirds.  That means that if they went that route, they’d free up over $2.6MM for next season while adding $533K in dead cap for 2024-25.  That could give them enough flexibility to re-sign their pending restricted free agents.

Alternatively, they could see if there’s a trade market for Yamamoto.  There are a handful of teams that are willing to take on money this summer, perhaps one would be interested in a younger player with the hope of trying to rebuild his value.  But those teams might prefer the incentives they’d receive for taking on a pricier veteran.  If Edmonton is able to move him this way, they’ll save a bit more cap space but the return is almost certain to be underwhelming.

The buyout deadline is June 30th so there is a fixed timeline for a decision to be made on what they’re doing with Yamamoto unless they can find a way to keep him around.  Assuming that doesn’t happen, they’ll be adding a cheap middle-six winger to their shopping list in the coming weeks.

Move Mid-Tier Money

It probably isn’t just Yamamoto that Holland will be making available around the league.  In an effort to open up cap space but not take away from their core pieces, they will likely look to move at least one other middle-tier player.  On the Oilers, those players would be winger Warren Foegele (one year, $2.75MM) plus defensemen Brett Kulak (three years, $2.75MM) and Cody Ceci (two years, $3.25MM).

It’s not that Edmonton should be particularly displeased with how any of these players performed this past season.  However, on the back end, Phillip Broberg is ready for full-time duty and is on a contract less than $100K above the league minimum.  Moving one of Ceci or Kulak would open up more ice time for the promising youngster while opening up more cap flexibility.  Similarly, while the Oilers like Foegele’s energy in the bottom six, would they be better off moving him, bringing back someone like Nick Bjugstad for less, and pocketing the savings?

Of course, this particular concept isn’t unique to the Oilers; more than half the league will be trying to do exactly something like this over the next couple of weeks.  As a result, they’re unlikely going to land a sizable return for any of these players.  But a move like that is necessary to give themselves a chance at keeping their restricted free agents while trying to add a piece or two to give them a boost (or at least replace Yamamoto).

Re-Sign Bouchard

When the Oilers acquired Mattias Ekholm from Nashville at the trade deadline, the veteran defender really helped to shore up Edmonton’s back end.  But the swap had another benefit as Evan Bouchard took a huge step forward.  Partnered with the steady Ekholm, Bouchard’s confidence soared.  And with power play specialist Tyson Barrie going the other way in the swap, the chance to load up the points was there for the taking.

Let’s just say he took advantage of it.  Following the trade, Bouchard picked up an impressive 19 points in 21 games, heading into the playoffs on a high note.  The 23-year-old then found another gear in the postseason, notching 17 points in a dozen games, leading all blueliners in playoff points despite only playing in two rounds.  That’s one way to hit restricted free agency on a high note.

Bouchard’s entry-level contract is set to come to an end on July 1st.  He won’t have arbitration eligibility but he’ll still be in line for a significant raise.  He has two full NHL seasons under his belt, both of them generating at least 40 points which should push a two-year bridge deal past the $3MM mark.  A one-year deal might get it a bit lower but would hand him arbitration eligibility the following summer.  That doesn’t seem like a wise move for the Oilers.  On the other hand, locking in long-term probably isn’t a wise move for Bouchard’s camp, nor is it an option that Edmonton can reasonably afford as things stand.

If you’re a fan of strategic offer sheets, this is a spot for one.  If a team got Bouchard to sign a one-year, $4.29MM offer sheet, the compensation would only be a second-round pick.  Edmonton would surely match but that price point would be problematic from a roster-building standpoint while, again, it gives him arbitration rights the following year.  Is such a scenario likely?  Probably not, especially in an era where offer sheets are few and far between.  But if Holland thinks a team might try it just to mess up their cap structure, it would behoove him to try to get Bouchard’s two-year bridge pact locked in sooner than later.

Avoid Arbitration

The Oilers have indicated that they will be qualifying all but one of their restricted free agents.  Among those that will be (or have been) tendered offers are forwards Klim Kostin and Ryan McLeod.  Both players had nice seasons, notching 11 goals in 57 games apiece.  McLeod worked his way into a more prominent spot on the depth chart as the season went on while Kostin, who started in the minors after clearing waivers, was mostly on the fourth line, delivering strong results.

However, both players are eligible for salary arbitration for the first time.  By tendering them their qualifiers, both McLeod and Kostin have the right to file for a hearing.  That’s the scenario that Edmonton would like to avoid.

Would either player break the bank?  Probably not but there are plenty of comparable players that would be in their favor which could help push their awards higher than Edmonton wants to pay.  They also won’t have a walkaway option on either player as PuckPedia reported last week (Twitter link) that the threshold for that remains where it has been since 2019-20 at $4.539MM.  Neither player is coming close to that; combined, they might not even get there.

But it’s certainly in Edmonton’s best interest to try to get these contracts done quickly.  They’ll both be short-term agreements again to keep the cap hit down.  Kostin’s should come in around $1.25MM or so while McLeod’s should be about $500K higher.  Getting those locked in over running the risk of an award adding a few extra hundred thousand per player would help from a flexibility standpoint.

Perhaps more importantly, it would also give them some certainty about what they can do this summer.  This whole column has been about internal focuses over external ones because of their cap situation.  They want to add but to do that, they need to move out roster players, creating more holes in the process while needing to leave room to re-sign Bouchard, Kostin, and McLeod (and perhaps try to keep Bjugstad).

Getting as many of these done as possible before July 1st becomes quite important as a result so they know what they can, or can’t afford to do on the open market.  While some teams will be doing their heavy lifting once free agency opens up, Edmonton should be hoping that most of theirs will already be done by then.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Toronto Maple Leafs

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The offseason is now fully underway after Vegas took home the Stanley Cup which means that it’s time to examine what each team will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Toronto.

It was another successful regular season for the Maple Leafs who finished in the bottom five in goals allowed while locking down the second seed in a tough Atlantic Division.  They even exorcised their first-round playoff demon, knocking out Tampa Bay.  However, that momentum was sapped quickly as Florida quickly dispatched them in the second round.  Now, after a peculiar sequence of events that resulted in Brad Treliving taking over as GM, he’s now tasked with deciding whether to make a significant core shakeup or to keep tinkering with the secondary group.  Early suggestions are that it could be the latter so their checklist is structured accordingly.

Coaching Hires

At this point, it seems like Sheldon Keefe is going to remain behind the bench following a recent report that he and Treliving are actively working on finding a replacement for assistant coach Spencer Carbery who left to take over behind the bench in Washington.  Keefe wouldn’t be involved in those talks if he wasn’t sticking around.  Based on that assumption, the only decision that Treliving needs to make around Keefe is whether he’s going to extend him now or have him enter next season on the final year of his contract.

Could that uncertainty help determine which way they go for Carbery’s replacement?  They’ll be hiring for the top assistant role so will they look to another up-and-comer like Carbery was or a more experienced option that could step in if Treliving decides to make an in-season change?  Either way, whoever they hire will need to have some power play pedigree with Carbery playing an important part in Toronto’s success with the man advantage over the last couple of seasons.

Additionally, Toronto needs to hire a new AHL staff after it was decided following their exit against Rochester in mid-May that head coach Greg Moore plus assistants A.J. MacLean and John Snowden.  This isn’t something that necessarily has to be completed before July 1st but this is an organization that typically is active in minor league free agency.  Having at least a head coach in place by then would help to avoid any uncertainty, especially with how quickly players sign within the first 24-48 hours after the market opens up.

Extension Talks

The Maple Leafs have two members of their ‘Core Four’ that are eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2024.  Accordingly, they’re eligible to sign contract extensions as of July 1st.  Considering both Auston Matthews and William Nylander are set to land sizable raises, getting these done sooner than later would go a long way toward helping Treliving’s roster planning.

Matthews is coming off a quiet year by his standards but he still averaged well over a point per game while picking up 40 goals.  Still not too shabby overall.  Before that, the 25-year-old led the league in goals for two straight seasons, picking up the Hart Trophy for his efforts.  He’s above average at the faceoff dot.  He receives Selke votes annually as the best defensive forward.  Basically, Matthews is a true number one center.  There aren’t many at his level around the league and they get paid.  At this point, the expectation is that he will set the new benchmark as the highest-paid player in the league, surpassing Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon ($12.6MM).  The questions are how much will he pass MacKinnon by and for how long?

Matthews didn’t sign a max-term agreement coming off his entry-level contract and it’s reasonable to think he could try a similar approach here, working out a medium-term agreement that might keep the AAV slightly lower while setting him up for what would likely be another raise down the road where he could once again try to set the new AAV record.

While some have suggested that July 1st represents a key deadline in discussions, that isn’t really the case.  At that point, Matthews picks up a full no-move clause and becomes harder to trade.  But if preliminary talks between his camp and Treliving have gone well and it seems like a matter of when and not if he signs an extension, Matthews having the NMC doesn’t really move the needle much.  It might not get done the first day possible but this should get done this summer.

As for Nylander, the 27-year-old followed up a career-best 80 points in 2021-22 with an even better showing this past season, tallying 40 goals for the first time along with 47 assists, also a new personal best.  He’s in the top 15 for points by a winger over the last three seasons, cementing himself as a true top-line winger in the process.  Others in that top 15 that have signed recently are Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov ($9MM), Florida’s Matthew Tkachuk ($9.5MM), and Columbus’ Johnny Gaudreau ($9.75MM).  It’s safe to suggest that Nylander’s next contract should fall somewhere within that range, especially with the expectation that the cap will rise more next summer.

Can Toronto afford extensions for both players?  That will be hard to do but it would also be very tough to part ways with one of those core pieces and maximize their value in return.  With that in mind, it might be a situation where the Maple Leafs extend both and then try to figure out how to fit them in on the books for 2024-25 and beyond later on.

Add An Impact Defenseman

Despite the fact that Toronto was one of the stingier teams in the league in goals allowed, there’s a well-defined hole on the back end to try to fill.  At the moment, the Maple Leafs have six blueliners under contract already for next season which isn’t bad.  However, three of them have question marks.

Mark Giordano was solid for most of the season but started to wear down toward the end and into the playoffs.  He’ll be 40 on opening night and is likely best utilized on the third pairing next season.  Timothy Liljegren hasn’t spent a lot of time in the top four, nor has Conor Timmins who has all of 66 games under his belt, most of which came with limited ice time.  It’s believed they’d like to bring Luke Schenn back but even he’s more of a role piece, not an impact one.

Morgan Rielly, T.J. Brodie, and Jake McCabe are a decent core group in their top four but there is a definite need to add someone that can play 20 minutes a game and kill penalties.  Basically, fill the role that Jake Muzzin was supposed to but with there being questions about his playing future, they can’t rely on hoping that he’s able to come back in prime form (if he’s able to come back at all).  In a perfect world, that player would be a right-shot blueliner but those are always in short supply and high demand.  Either way, a stable second-pairing defender would go a long way toward helping keep this team battling for the top of the division.

Goaltending Decisions

Last summer, former GM Kyle Dubas opted to make a pair of moves to overhaul Toronto’s goaltending.  One worked well, the other not so much.  Treliving now faces decisions on what to do with both of those netminders.

First, the good.  Ilya Samsonov was somewhat surprisingly non-tendered by Washington as they chose to go a different direction with Darcy Kuemper coming over in free agency.  Samsonov wound up on a one-year, $1.8MM deal and became one of the better bargains in goal around the league.  His market value now with a strong season under his belt starts to creep up into the $4.5MM to $5MM range.  Giving him that price tag on a multi-year deal would shore up the goaltending position for a few seasons but it would also cut into Treliving’s spending options for this summer.

Then there’s Matt Murray.  He had some good moments and some bad ones but most of all, he had plenty of times when he was injured.  By the time he was cleared to return for the playoffs, he was relegated to third-string duty behind Joseph Woll.  He has one year left on his contract with Toronto’s portion being $4.6785MM.  Having him and Samsonov (likely at a similar price tag) on the books is an option they probably can’t afford, especially with a now waiver-eligible Woll waiting in the wings on a contract that’s below the league minimum for the next two years.

Murray’s contract is one that won’t be easy to offload; it would require an incentive and the Maple Leafs don’t exactly have a surplus of draft picks and prospects at their disposal to help make that happen.  Alternatively, they can choose to buy out the final year of Murray’s deal.  Doing that would save $4MM on the books for next season.  However, it would also add $2MM in dead cap space for 2024-25 at a time when they’ll need every penny to afford the new deals for Matthews and Nylander.  The other option would be to bury him in the minors, a move that would save $1.15MM in space for next season with no cap charges for 2024-25.

With Samsonov, the choice is fairly simple – how long of a contract do they want to do?  For Murray, it’s a much different case, deciding which of three bad options is the least painful route to take.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: New Jersey Devils

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The offseason is now fully underway after Vegas took home the Stanley Cup which means that it’s time to examine what each team will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at New Jersey.

It was an interesting season for the Devils.  There were calls to fire head coach Lindy Ruff, followed by apologies from those same fans as the team embarked on a 13-game winning streak which propelled them into a battle for the top seed in the Metropolitan Division and had them making one of the biggest splashes of the trade deadline.  They made it to the second round before Carolina eliminated them but it was still a season that exceeded the expectations of many.  Now, GM Tom Fitzgerald faces a busy summer with over a third of the team needing a new contract for next season even after re-signing Jesper Bratt earlier this week; those situations feature prominently in their checklist as a result.

Goaltending Decisions

New Jersey has a couple of calls to make between the pipes.  The first involves Mackenzie Blackwood.  Just a few years ago, he was viewed as the goalie of the future for the Devils.  Things haven’t gone as well since then, however.  Injuries limited him in each of the last two seasons and when he has been in the lineup, he has struggled, posting a 3.30 GAA with a .893 SV% in that stretch.  Those are numbers that are certainly below the NHL average.  He’s owed a $3.36MM qualifying offer and while they can certainly hope that the 26-year-old will rebound, that’s a pricey gamble to take.

First things first, they need to decide if they’re going to tender that offer.  Assuming they don’t, then a decision needs to be made about potentially trying to sign him for less money.

Then, if that doesn’t happen and they cut bait, then a call needs to be made about potentially trying to add an upgrade at the position.  Vitek Vanecek had a solid regular season but struggled in the playoffs, paving the way for Akira Schmid to step in.  Schmid may very well be the next goalie of the future but he’s still on his entry-level contract; would they be better off having him play more regularly with AHL Utica for one more season?  The goalie market generally moves quickly in the summer so these are questions that Fitzgerald will need to answer within the next couple of weeks.

Re-Sign Or Move Meier

One big item was checked off when Bratt signed on Thursday but there is still one remaining restricted free agent of significance to deal with in Timo Meier.  Owed a $10MM qualifying offer, the Devils got out in front of that one on Thursday by opting for club-elected salary arbitration.  The move gives them a chance to file as low as $8.5MM but isn’t without risk as, in theory, Meier could simply accept the hearing, get what he gets, and head for unrestricted free agency next July.

The filing sets a firmer timeline for signing him.  Arbitration hearings are held between July 20th and August 4th with awards typically coming a couple of days after the hearing if no agreement is reached by then.  Instead of allowing for the potential for a later agreement, the filing locks in his contract timing by the first week of August.  Fitzgerald indicated yesterday that Meier has a desire to sign a max-term deal and they’ll have basically a month and a half to get one done, less if he winds up going early on the hearing schedule.

How much might that deal cost?  Certainly more than Bratt’s $7.875MM.  He scored 40 goals this season after putting up 35 the year before and scoring prowess certainly matters in these talks.  He’s a power forward and those players tend to wind up with contracts that seem above market value relative strictly to their production.  The track record isn’t there for a deal that’s at or past the $10MM mark – few wingers have reached that threshold – but it would be surprising to see him lock in for anything below $9MM per year.

New Jersey will need to come to the table with an offer that’s good enough to make Meier forego the right to arbitration where he could legitimately wind up with an award close to $9MM on its own for one season.  In a contract market that’s expected to start inflating once again if the Upper Limit starts to go up quicker than it has in recent years, the price tag will only go higher if he makes it to unrestricted free agency.  There’s room to make it work on the books but he will quite likely become their highest-paid player in the process, surpassing Dougie Hamilton’s $9MM AAV.

Mercer Extension Talks

Dawson Mercer has certainly had a nice start to his NHL career, quickly earning a spot in the top-six.  His sophomore year was a strong one, notching 27 goals and 29 assists while playing all 82 games for the second straight year.  Going back to that idea of a bigger cap increase in 2024-25, it stands to reason that it would be in New Jersey’s best interest to try to get him locked up now.

Mercer will have four seasons of RFA eligibility remaining when his contract expires in 2024 so the two viable options are either a short-term bridge deal or a long-term one that buys some extra years of team control.  Once in a while, a team will do an early bridge extension but that doesn’t feel like the type of move that makes a lot of sense for the Devils right now so let’s look at the longer-term options.

With a max-term agreement, the AAV is probably going to come in higher than his current value now with both sides forecasting an improvement in his production.  That, coupled with the expectation of a higher cap, could push the AAV well past the $6MM mark.  The other option is a six-year contract that provides some extra club control but would set him up for another long-term contract entering his age-30 campaign.  The price tag would be a bit lower as a result, potentially in the mid-$5.5MM area and could be a reasonable compromise considering the big tickets they already have on the books (plus potentially another to come with Meier).

The Devils historically have tried to sign some of their core young players to early extensions.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see Fitzgerald continue that trend with Mercer in the coming months.

Re-Sign Or Replace Haula

When the Devils moved out Pavel Zacha last summer, they picked up Erik Haula in a swap of players that both teams felt the newcomers would fit in better than they were on their old squad.  Zacha certainly did, eventually signing a long-term extension with Boston.  Haula also fared well, notching at least 40 points for the second straight year and only the third time in his 10-year career.  He’s set to hit the open market this summer and while he isn’t a high-end producer, he’s still one of the better options available in what is a fairly thin class.

At a minimum, the 32-year-old is in for a nice raise on the $2.375MM AAV he had this past season.  Haula should be in line to land a contract of at least three years if not four (which would be the longest of his career).  With Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier entrenched as the top two middlemen for the long haul, Haula’s role is pretty much set as a third-line center with the Devils.  Is that a role they want to lock in for that long at a price tag that’s going to check in somewhere around the $3.5MM mark?  Haula has made it clear that he wants to stay in New Jersey but as the roster becomes more top-heavy in terms of salaries, it becomes harder to fit a mid-tier player on the books.

Internally, after a season that saw him score just four goals, Michael McLeod isn’t quite ready yet to step into Haula’s spot on the depth chart so they’d likely have to turn outside the roster to fill that spot, preferably on a short-term agreement.  That’s easier said than done in this free agent class.  Sometimes, it’s better to go with the devil you know and that could be the case here for Fitzgerald.  Accordingly, expect talks to pick up in the coming days on this front to try to keep Haula from hitting the open market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: New York Rangers

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The offseason is now fully underway after Vegas took home the Stanley Cup which means that it’s time to examine what each team will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Rangers.

Expectations were high for New York heading into the playoffs.  They had a solid regular season and loaded up for the playoffs, adding wingers Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane while also getting Niko Mikkola to help on the back end.  Instead of their firepower carrying the day though, they struggled to score with consistency which played a big role in their early exit at the hand of New Jersey.  One big change has already been made behind the bench but GM Chris Drury still has some work cut out for him in the coming weeks.

Finalize Coaching Staff

After a long search, the Rangers have figured out who their head coach is going to be following yesterday’s hiring of Peter Laviolette on a three-year deal worth just under $5MM per season.  Now, the team will need to finalize the rest of their staff.  Mike Kelly and Jim Midgley were let go last month along with former bench boss Gerard Gallant while Gord Murphy will now also not return.  That means the only holdover from last year’s staff is goalie coach Benoit Allaire.

It’s not entirely uncommon for a head coach to come in with a clean slate.  Two of Laviolette’s assistants from last season in Washington, Kevin McCarthy and Blaine Forsythe, also departed the Capitals and possibly resurface in similar roles with the Rangers.  It’s also possible that AHL Hartford head coach Kris Knoblauch could be promoted after four years with the Wolf Pack.  He does have two seasons as an NHL assistant under his belt in 2017-18 and 2018-19 with Philadelphia.

Having the assistants in place by free agency isn’t a necessity since Laviolette is in place but it wouldn’t be surprising to see this one get checked off within the next couple of weeks.

Clear Cap Space

At first glance, New York’s cap situation doesn’t look terrible as they project to have a little over $11.7MM in space, per CapFriendly.  However, when you consider that they have to sign eight or nine players with that money, including second contracts for a pair of core youngsters, it doesn’t take long to realize that this is going to be a problem.  They need to open up some cap room which isn’t necessarily going to be easy in an environment where many others will be looking to do the same.

At first glance, forward Barclay Goodrow seems like a possible cap casualty.  The 30-year-old has certainly come as advertised in his first two seasons with the team, providing his two best offensive seasons while still providing the grit and defensive play that endeared him to Drury in the first place.  The problem is that he carries a cap hit of just over $3.64MM.  For a bottom-six forward, that’s an above-market rate and one they can’t afford.  On top of that, he has four years left on his contract.  That will make it difficult to move him but he’s the logical one to try to trade.

If a trade involving him can’t be reached, then it gets tough.  Defenseman Ryan Lindgren and forward Filip Chytil are on either side of Goodrow on New York’s salary scale but both are important parts of their younger core.  Moving anyone making less than that isn’t going to move the needle much in terms of cap savings and going above Chytil’s contract lands you with six skaters that have full no-move clauses.

There are definitely things that are easier said than done and when it comes to opening up cap room, this is certainly one of those for the Rangers.  However, they’re going to have to bite the bullet at some point over the next few weeks; whether it’s the one they likely want to move (Goodrow) or one they don’t remains to be seen.

Re-Sign Key RFAs

A good chunk of the cap space that they have is going to go to two of their prominent restricted free agents, players that are pegged to be significant pieces of both the present roster and the future one.  Accordingly, the Rangers would like to avoid having to move either defenseman K’Andre Miller or forward Alexis Lafreniere to alleviate their cap challenges.

Miller has the better track record of the two and established himself as a fixture in the top four in his sophomore year.  This season, he was even better, more than doubling his point total from 20 to 43 while taking a bigger role in the lineup, finishing second to only Adam Fox in ice time.  As a result, even a short-term bridge contract is going to be on the pricey side, likely somewhere in the $3.5MM to $4MM range.  Meanwhile, a longer-term agreement that buys out some UFA time is likely to creep past the $6MM mark based on the year he just had.  The Rangers would undoubtedly love to give Miller that long-term contract but unless they find a way to free up significant cap room (by moving one of those six high-paid players with NMCs), they’ll be forced to go the bridge route with him, giving them some short-term flexibility with a higher price point to come when it’s up.

As for Lafreniere, the 2020 first-overall pick has yet to become a top offensive threat.  However, his production has increased over the last couple of years and with it, his playing time.  Still just 21, there’s still plenty of time to live up to his potential or at least carve out a bigger role in the lineup.  The fact that he has underachieved so far along with their cap situation completely takes a long-term contract off the table.  Lafreniere will be getting a short-term bridge deal, an arrangement both sides will be content with.  A two-year deal should check in around the $2.75MM mark while a three-year pact would push his AAV past $3MM.  It could also be suggested that if they can’t move Goodrow or clear out salary otherwise, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that Lafreniere could become a cap casualty although that clearly wouldn’t be their preference.

Sign A Backup Goalie

Last summer, the Rangers decided to cut some costs in goal, moving out Alexandar Georgiev to Colorado for a trio of draft picks and signing Jaroslav Halak for less than half of what Georgiev received from the Avs.  The decision was certainly understandable; with one of the top starters in the league in Igor Shesterkin (coming off a Vezina-winning campaign) and a tight salary cap picture, going cheaper on a second-stringer made sense.

Halak worked out reasonably well for New York, posting a 2.73 GAA with a .903 SV% in 25 games and in a year that saw goal rates go up, his numbers wound up being a bit better than league average.  In the end, they got good value on their $1.5MM investment.

But Halak is 38, making him one of the oldest goaltenders in the league.  Does he have another season like that in him?  Do they want to look at other options, perhaps ones that are a bit cheaper to try to free up more room?  Internally, veteran third-stringer Louis Domingue is in the fold and is signed for the league minimum which would help from a cap standpoint but the 31-year-old hasn’t had double-digit NHL appearances since 2019-20.  The goalie market moves fast in free agency with the annual game of musical chairs often starting and ending on July 1st so Drury has a few weeks to figure out his plan and wish list on this front.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Colorado Avalanche

at CDT | by 3 Comments

The offseason has arrived for all but the two teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup.  It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Colorado.

After winning the Stanley Cup last year, expectations were high for the Avalanche heading into this season.  However, lingering injury issues for Gabriel Landeskog left them without a top winger for the entire year and they ultimately came up short in the first round, falling to Seattle.  Now, GM Chris MacFarland will be tasked with making some moves to try to get them heading toward what they hope will be a deep playoff run once again.

Add Second Center

With Nathan MacKinnon locked up for the long haul on his record-setting eight-year, $100.8MM contract, Colorado doesn’t have to worry about finding a top-line center anytime soon.  However, they will need to address the vacancy at that position on the second line.

It’s a spot that the club largely tried to fill internally this season following the departure of Nazem Kadri to Calgary last summer.  The results were mixed as both Alex Newhook and J.T. Compher getting chances with varying degrees of success with newcomer Evan Rodrigues briefly getting a look as well.  Compher responded with a career year, notching 52 points.  However, he’s set to hit unrestricted free agency this summer for the first time and coming off the year he had and a marketplace where he is one of the top middlemen out there, a return doesn’t seem likely.  Newhook still likely isn’t ready for the role and Rodrigues will also hit the open market next month.

That means that MacFarland will need to look outside the organization to fill that spot.  On the surface, this feels like a spot where Landeskog’s LTIR could be used; the captain has already been ruled out for the entire 2023-24 campaign, giving the Avs his full $7MM contract to use, boosting their cap space to a little over $20MM, per CapFriendly.  (They do, however, have as many as eleven players to sign with that room.)

However, given the uncertainty surrounding Landeskog’s long-term availability, acquiring someone on a multi-year contract with that money would carry some risk, especially knowing that there’s another big-ticket contract coming down the pipeline soon with Mikko Rantanen two years away from unrestricted free agency.  As a result, their preference might be to look at someone on an expiring contract (which could have them turning to a certain division rival), allowing them to fill that spot while maintaining some longer-term flexibility.  Either way, it’s an area that will need to be addressed as they won’t have the luxury of filling it from within next season.

Re-Sign Key RFAs

Colorado has two prominent restricted free agents this summer and what they do with both of them will go a long way toward determining how aggressive they can be in trying to fill out the roster.  Bridge deals for Newhook and defenseman Bowen Byram are certainly defensible with how things have gone so far although, in a salary cap environment that is expected to be higher in the next couple of years, they’d be setting themselves up for less flexibility down the road in exchange for more flexibility now.

Newhook wasn’t able to grab a full-time top-six spot but it wasn’t all bad as the 22-year-old reached the 30-point mark for the second straight year while setting a new benchmark in goals with 14.  On top of that, he showed some improvement at the faceoff circle, beating his rookie season performance by nearly 7% although there is still a lot of work to do on that front.  The development might be slower than they hoped for but he should still factor into their future plans.  It would be a gamble to give him a pricier long-term agreement unless they were convinced that a big jump in production is on the horizon.  The safer bet is a back-loaded two-year bridge contract around the $2.25MM to $2.5MM mark that buys both sides more time.

As for Byram, his case is a little less clear.  When he has been healthy, he has been a key part of their top four and has shown considerable improvement.  The soon-to-be 22-year-old logged nearly 22 minutes per game in both the regular season and the series against Seattle despite seeing limited time on special teams.  It stands to reason there’s another jump or two coming in his development.  However, he has a lengthy stretch of concussion concerns to the point where he briefly thought his career might have been over back in 2021.

If they lock him up on a long-term deal now, there’s a chance it become a very team-friendly one down the road but if he doesn’t stay healthy, it could be a problem for them fairly quickly.  With just 91 career regular season games under his belt, a bridge contract shouldn’t break the bank too much and should fall somewhere within the $3MM range.  Meanwhile, a long-term agreement that buys out multiple UFA years could double that bridge amount.  With no arbitration eligibility, this could drag on but getting a contract done sooner than later would certainly help Colorado determine what else they can do in free agency this summer.

Toews Extension Talks

To say that Colorado has done quite well with the acquisition of Devon Toews would be an understatement.  When then-GM Joe Sakic acquired him from the Islanders for two second-round picks, it seemed like a low price to pay.  He then signed Toews to a four-year contract that carries a $4.1MM AAV.  Suffice it to say, it was already a team-friendly agreement heading into this season where all the 29-year-old did was put up 50 points and log over 25 minutes per game for the second straight year.  Now, it’s arguably one of the best-value contracts in the league.  Toews has one year left on that contract which means that he’s eligible to sign an extension as of July 1st.

How much will that new contract cost?  It seems fair to suggest that they won’t want to go past Cale Makar’s $9MM AAV but if Toews has a third year like this one, his price tag could come pretty close to that number.

Can they afford that price point?  Potentially, especially depending on which route they go with Byram.  If both get long-term contracts, the price of their back end (which also includes Josh Manson for three more years at a $4.5MM cap charge) is going to balloon in a hurry.  That’s not ideal for a team that is already top-heavy up front.

To that end, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Avs try to work out something early with Toews.  If they can get an extension in place in early July, it’s possible that they turn around and try to find a trade for Samuel Girard, who has four years left at $5MM.  That’s not a bad contract by any stretch – it’s arguable that it’s a below-market one – but they can’t afford to see their back end cost approach the $30MM mark and with the injury trouble Manson had this season, it’s quite unlikely he moves which makes Girard the potential trade casualty.  In a free agent market that isn’t the deepest, Colorado could net a strong return for Girard’s services.  But they can’t really shop him too aggressively until they know that Toews is signed so in a perfect world, that domino falls rather quickly.

Upgrade Forward Depth

Colorado’s bottom-six group struggled as a unit this season.  For a lot of the time, the Avs were rarely playing their fourth line and when they weren’t on the ice, they weren’t able to get much going.  The end result was a frequent shuffling of low-cost personnel in the hopes that one or two of them would stick.  Eventually, they had to turn to the trade market, picking up Denis Malgin and Matthew Nieto, both of which at least stabilized things a little bit.

The majority of that unit is poised to turn over.  Veterans Darren Helm (who was injured most of the year), Andrew Cogliano, Nieto, and deadline acquisition Lars Eller are all unrestricted free agents.  Malgin is currently an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent but is a non-tender candidate just to avoid the possibility of going to a hearing.  Several of the recalls from the minors that got a chance during the season are also pending UFAs.  There is going to be considerable turnover in this group.

This year, finding capable low-cost options wasn’t easy in-season.  Now, there’s at least a chance to try to build a more complementary bottom six in the summer, albeit with similar financial restrictions as by the time they find a center and re-sign Newhook and Byram, a big chunk of their cap room will be gone.  They will need to find the right mixture of veterans and under-the-radar depth pieces (with perhaps a waiver claim or two in training camp) to give head coach Jared Bednar a shot at running four lines with some regularity in 2023-24.  The options will be plentiful but with so many teams needing players at or near the league minimum, demand for some of these players is going to be high as well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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